Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are poor, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2601 are oscillating weakly, and the medium - term trend is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [1]. - The negative feedback logic is fermenting, with continuous weakening of ore demand and unabated supply pressure. The ore price is mainly driven by the real - world logic and continues to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating weakly, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and the ore price runs weakly [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production has weakened, the terminal consumption of ore has continued to decline, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which restrains the ore price. - Domestic port ore arrivals have increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments remain high, external ore supply is active, and domestic ore production is stabilizing, so the supply pressure remains. - The negative feedback logic is fermenting, ore demand continues to weaken, supply pressure remains, the inventory of the ore market is accumulating rapidly, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market is affected by both the support of import costs and the pressure of domestic fundamentals, with high - level volatility of short - term futures prices intensifying [5]. - The palm oil market is suppressed by inventory pressure, weak demand, and the external market environment, and short - term futures prices will remain weak in the oil market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Market Conditions**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly". The core logic includes China's tariff policy on the US, import and arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [5][6]. - **Driving Factors**: After China adjusted the tariff policy on the US, although the 10% additional tariff was cancelled, the 13% benchmark tariff was retained, weakening the cost support of US soybean futures on the domestic market. Domestic spot pressure has increased significantly, with high inventory, weak demand from the breeding end, and obvious pressure on spot prices [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Market Conditions**: Short - term view is "weak", medium - term and intraday views are "oscillating weakly". The core logic involves bio - diesel attributes, palm oil production and exports in Malaysia and Indonesia, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. - **Driving Factors**: It is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of October will increase by 3.5% month - on - month to 2.44 million tons, reaching a two - year high, and production may reach a seven - year high. Weak international crude oil prices and a stronger ringgit exchange rate have reduced the attractiveness and price competitiveness of palm oil. Demand is also weak, with India's palm oil imports in October dropping to a five - month low [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with the short - term view of IH2512 being "oscillating", the medium - term view being "strong", and the intraday view being "strong - biased". The overall intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is "strong - biased", and the medium - term view is "strong", with a reference view of "range - bound" [1][5] - The market is in a stage where the rhythm of policy - driven positive expectations and the rhythm of capital profit - taking are in a game. In the short - term, the stock index is mainly range - bound due to the intertwined long and short factors. In the long - term, policy - driven positive expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market support the stock index, but in November, the incremental policy signals are weakening, and the external risk factors still have uncertainties, so the upward driving force of the stock index is limited [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term is "oscillating", the medium - term is "strong", the intraday is "strong - biased", and the view reference is "range - bound". The core logic is the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, IM is "strong - biased", the medium - term view is "strong", and the reference view is "range - bound". Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2020.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The market is in a game stage, and in the long - term, there is support for the stock index, but in November, the upward driving force is limited, and there is still a need for technical consolidation of the stock index [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, policies to expand domestic demand continued to show effects, and the CPI and PPI both showed positive changes. The year - to - date foreign trade maintained a stable growth trend, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased. The bond market was generally weak and volatile, and the stock market had certain resilience [2][11]. - The end - of - year bond market has a certain probability of winning, but the odds are limited. The stock market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, and the convertible bond valuation will remain high and stable [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%. The CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [1]. - From January to October 2025, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, exports decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.4% year - on - year [11]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [2]. - A potential agreement to end the US government shutdown is "being gradually reached", and a polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform is being planned with a fund scale of about 70 billion yuan [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - As of November 7, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.17% from the previous trading day. The CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [4][5]. - On November 7, the domestic gold inventory reached a new high since January 2008, and the silver inventory reached a new low in nearly 10 years. Indian gold ETFs are experiencing record capital inflows [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Linfen implemented differential peak - shifting production control for long - process steel enterprises, and German steel manufacturers are in a survival crisis [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Iraq set the official price of Basra medium - quality crude oil for North and South America in December at a discount of $1.35 per barrel to the ASCI [7]. - The cumulative shale oil production of Changqing Oilfield exceeded 20 million tons. Greece signed a long - term LNG supply contract with the US, and Japan plans to purchase LNG as emergency reserves starting from January 2026 [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of November 7, more than 70% of the wheat in Shanxi Province had been sown, and it is expected to complete the sowing task [9]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. On November 7, the central bank conducted 141.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 21.34 billion yuan on that day [10]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - From January to October 2025, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, exports decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.4% year - on - year [11]. - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.343343 trillion, and the gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces, with continuous increases [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs suspended the implementation of multiple export control measures, and restored the soybean import qualifications of three US enterprises and the import of US logs [13]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was generally weak and volatile, with most interest - rate bond yields rising. Treasury bond futures declined, and the yields of bank "perpetual and secondary" bonds generally increased [21]. - In the exchange bond market, most Vanke bonds rose sharply, and the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index increased by 0.66%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.08% [21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1225 on November 9, down 6 points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.16% in late New York trading [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the export growth rate in October was lower than expected, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. The import growth rate was also lower than expected, which may be related to the decline in manufacturing prosperity [27]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market's calendar effect has become more prominent since 2019. The end - of - year bond market has a certain probability of winning, but the odds are limited. The stock market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term [28][29]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - Last week, the institutional research enthusiasm remained high, with 418 listed companies disclosing institutional research records. A - share market showed a weak and volatile trend last week, and institutions suggest paying attention to certain sectors [32]. - Brokerage firms' November strategies indicate that short - term factors have led to style fluctuations in the market, but corporate profits are in the recovery stage, and the medium - term outlook is still positive [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the Fed's hawkish stance and a relatively strong US dollar index. For copper, the long - term outlook is positive, supported by macro - economic easing and expected supply contractions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Gold prices are in a high - level consolidation phase, with New York gold mainly fluctuating around the $4,000 key psychological level [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's policy divergence dominates market sentiment, with some officials advocating a restrictive policy to control inflation and others open to rate cuts. The US government shutdown risk provides some safe - haven support for gold, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices. The short - term pullback of the US dollar index around 100 corresponds to a rebound in gold prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $4,000 level of New York gold [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term (within a week), the view is "swing"; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is "swing"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and falling, and the main contract price stabilized around 85,000 yuan, with a slowdown in the decline of open interest [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's hawkish stance has cooled the market sentiment, and LME copper is at a five - year high, causing short - term long - position closure. However, in the long - run, macro - economic easing and supply contractions are expected to support copper prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 yuan level [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the view is "bullish"; in the medium - term, it is "strong"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The optimistic sentiment continues, and port coal prices are operating strongly. The supply contraction expectation and downstream replenishment expectation support the coal price to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the strength of the peak season of thermal coal from this winter to next spring [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Market Conditions**: As of November 6, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 799 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan. The domestic thermal coal price strengthened again after a brief stabilization [4]. - **Supply Side**: In the first week of November, the production of main - producing area coal mines was generally stable, and the supply was still lower than the same period last year. After the safety production inspection team entered in November, there was still some pressure on the recovery of thermal coal supply. In October, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426.6 million tons from the previous month [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the period of October 30, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.806 million tons, basically flat week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.335 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192000 tons per day. The peak season of thermal coal demand has not started [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is expected to show a weak - running trend. In the short - term, it is weak; in the medium - term, it is oscillating; and on the day, it is also weak. The market is dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price slightly rising 0.59% to 459.6 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Monday [5] Driving Logic - Some Fed officials have made hawkish remarks. The ongoing US government shutdown may delay the release of October CPI data and impact the US economic resilience. They suggest no interest - rate cuts before Powell's term ends in May 2026. As geopolitical sentiment fades, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures markets are back to the supply - demand fundamental - driven market [5]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应强预期，焦煤高位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端支撑，焦炭高位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 11 月 7 日当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term, with an overall view of weak operation. The weak supply - demand situation dominates, causing methanol to fluctuate weakly. The contract may maintain a weak trend on Monday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within a week): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be weak [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be in a state of fluctuation [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2601 contract is expected to be weak [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - Some Fed officials have made hawkish remarks. The ongoing government shutdown in the US may delay the release of October CPI data, and it has also impacted the US economic resilience. They suggest no interest rate cuts before Powell's term ends in May 2026 [5]. - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at relatively high levels, and the external import pressure continues to increase. The methanol inventories at ports in East and South China are persistently high [5]. - On the night session of last Friday, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract fluctuated weakly, with the futures price slightly down 0.76% to 2,103 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock indices oscillated and consolidated on the day, with the total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets at 2020.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.7 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - The market is in a stage where the expectation of policy benefits and the profit - taking rhythm of funds are in a game, with multiple and short factors intertwined, causing the stock indices to fluctuate repeatedly [3]. - In the medium - to - long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market provide strong support for the stock indices. However, in November, the incremental signals from the policy side weakened, and although external risk factors eased, uncertainties still remained, limiting the upward driving force of the stock indices [3]. - As the stock valuation has significantly increased, the demand for profit - taking of profitable funds has risen, and there is still a need for technical consolidation of the stock indices. In general, the stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options is at a relatively low historical quantile level. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock indices, the idea of a bull spread is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On November 7, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.13% to 3.186; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.21% to 4.795; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.30% to 4.941; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.31% to 4678.79; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.13% to 7541.88; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.15% to 7.440; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.37% to 2.968; the ChiNext ETF fell 0.50% to 3.185; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.64% to 3.567; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.21% to 3038.35; the Sci - Tech Innovation 50ETF fell 1.46% to 1.49; and the E Fund Sci - Tech Innovation 50ETF fell 1.37% to 1.44 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options on November 7, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, such as the 50ETF option volume PCR being 121.96 (previous day: 102.40) and the open interest PCR being 93.44 (previous day: 94.38) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of various options in November 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets are presented, for example, the implied volatility of the 50ETF option at - the - money options in November 2025 is 12.78%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying is 12.91% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **50ETF Option Charts**: Include the 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][11][13]. - **300ETF Option Charts (Shanghai Stock Exchange)**: Comprise the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][22][24]. - **300ETF Option Charts (Shenzhen Stock Exchange)**: Contain the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [33][35][37]. - **CSI 300 Index Option Charts**: Include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [46][48][50]. - **CSI 1000 Index Option Charts**: Comprise the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [59][62][64]. - **500ETF Option Charts (Shanghai Stock Exchange)**: Contain the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [73][75][77]. - **500ETF Option Charts (Shenzhen Stock Exchange)**: Include the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [86][89][90]. - **ChiNext ETF Option Charts**: Comprise the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [96][99][100]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Option Charts**: Contain the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [109][112][113]. - **SSE 50 Index Option Charts**: Include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [122][125][127]. - **Sci - Tech Innovation 50ETF Option Charts**: Comprise the Sci - Tech Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [136][138][139]. - **E Fund Sci - Tech Innovation 50ETF Option Charts**: Contain the E Fund Sci - Tech Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [146][148][149].