投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 原料表现偏强，钢价低位回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货小幅提振，成交表现一般，相应的螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势，建筑钢厂提 产，产量有所增加，供应重回年内相对高位。同时，螺纹需求季节性走弱，高频需求指标偏弱运 行，弱势需求将抑制钢价。总之，市场情绪回暖叠加原料端偏强，钢材期价震荡走高，但螺纹钢供 应在回升，而需求表 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 需求季节性改善，动力煤维持偏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 强走势 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格继续反弹，中低卡煤由于前期港口发运利润倒挂，港口货 源偏紧，价格走势更强。库存方面，根据 iFind 统计，截至 6 月 26 日，环渤海 ...

煤焦周度产业数据 2025年6月27日 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 | 简评：1、原料补库需求释放， | | 焦煤库存从煤矿和港口向下游转移； | | 2、本周， | 全国523家炼焦煤矿精煤 | 姓名：涂伟华 | | 宝城期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日均产量73.8万吨， | 环比减0.6万吨， | | 较去年同期偏低3.5万吨； 3、甘其毛都口岸上周累计通关4207 | | | 从业资格证号：F3060359 | | 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 | | | 车， | 周环比增374车。 | | | | | 电话：0571-87006873 | | 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com | | | 焦炭库存 | | 本周 | 环比 | 同比 | 焦煤库存 | | 本周 | 环比 | 同比 | | | 库存(万吨) 230家独立焦化厂 | 73.73 | -7.2 | 36.88 | | 库存(万吨) 523家炼焦煤矿 | 463.1 | -36.1 | ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 217.84 5.66 225.51 -7.67 244.76 -26.92 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.83 0.04 90.69 0.14 89.13 1.70 表观需求量 219.91 0.72 248.68 -28.77 235.80 -15.89 钢联建材成交周均值 9.72 -0.02 10.17 -0.45 11.83 -2.11 总库存 549.00 -2.07 581.05 -32.05 784.62 -235.62 厂内库存 185.60 3.28 186.46 -0.86 206.38 -20.78 社会库存 363.40 -5.35 394.59 -31.19 578.24 -214.84 螺纹钢周度数据（20250627） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: As of the week ending June 27, the total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1197 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.15 thousand tons. After the fourth round of coke price cuts on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4229 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 0.11 thousand tons, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week. The coke fundamentals have not worsened further, and upstream coking coal and policy expectations bring certain benefits. It is expected that coke will maintain a volatile upward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending June 27, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 738 thousand tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week and 35 thousand tons lower than the same period last year. In late June, some mines in the main production areas were shut down for rectification due to safety issues, but most are expected to resume production in the short term. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4207 vehicles, a weekly increase of 374 vehicles. The total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased by 0.15 thousand tons week - on - week. With the previous negative factors being gradually realized, the phased contraction of coking coal supply and policy expectations in July may drive its rebound, but the supply issue still faces a factual test in July [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to May, the steel industry's profit was 3.169 billion yuan. The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 272.043 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit decreased by 7.4%, joint - stock enterprises' profit decreased by 1.5%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 0.3%, and private enterprises' profit increased by 3.4% [8]. - On June 27, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1170 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1220 yuan/ton | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1140 yuan/ton | - 2.56% | - 6.56% | - 29.63% | - 41.54% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 865 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1200 yuan/ton | - 0.83% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 42.31% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1421.5 | 2.52 | 1422.0 | 1389.0 | 28193 | 5398 | 53145 | 1846 | | Coking Coal | - | 847.5 | 4.89 | 848.0 | 820.5 | 1179647 | 308648 | 582668 | 18006 | [13] Related Charts The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal inventory), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][21][27]. Future Outlook - **Coke**: It is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July to prevent the cost support from collapsing again [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: The phased contraction of supply and policy expectations in July may drive its rebound, but the supply issue still faces a factual test in July, so close attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July [6][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - demand situation of hot - rolled coils has changed. The production of plate mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils has increased by 1.79 million tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level this year with relatively large supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand toughness of hot - rolled coils has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.44 million tons week - on - week and low - frequency trading performance. Although the downstream cold - rolled production remains high, providing support for hot - rolled coil demand, the upcoming end of the Sino - US tariff "exemption period" may lead to the fermentation of external risks, and demand concerns still exist. Overall, the supply of hot - rolled coils remains stable at a high level, while demand has weakened, and fundamental contradictions have accumulated. The price of hot - rolled coils continues to be under pressure and operates in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the tariff risks after the end of the "exemption period" [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - Weekly output: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 327.24 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 5.39 million tons [2]. - Blast furnace capacity utilization rate: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.83%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.70 percentage points [2]. Demand - Apparent demand: The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 326.25 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 1.59 million tons [2]. - Weekly output of cold - rolled coils: The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 88.06 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.29 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 1.86 million tons [2]. Inventory - Total inventory: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 341.16 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.35 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 71.64 million tons [2]. - In - plant inventory: The in - plant inventory of hot - rolled coils is 78.22 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.70 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.20 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.78 million tons [2]. - Social inventory: The social inventory of hot - rolled coils is 262.94 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.15 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 59.86 million tons [2].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,930.23 36.07 13,866.58 63.65 14,926.32 -996.09 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,847.47 -88.77 8,754.33 93.14 9,140.13 -292.66 45港铁矿石到货量 2,562.70 178.20 2,151.30 411.40 2,473.00 89.70 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,506.70 154.00 3,188.70 318.00 3,338.00 168.70 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 242.29 0.11 241.91 0.38 239.44 2.85 45港日均疏港量 325.94 12.38 326.68 -0.74 307.78 18.16 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 301.25 0.25 299.68 1.57 293.21 8.04 主港铁矿成交周均值 98.60 2.70 96.94 1.66 97.32 1.28 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20250627） 库存 供给 需求 10,000 11,00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.98%. Although the strong raw materials boosted the steel market, the supply continued to rise while the demand was weak and stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and the sustainability of the upward drive was questionable. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.94%. The strong raw materials supported the steel price to rise, but the supply was high and stable while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions were accumulating. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.99%. The demand was resilient and the market sentiment improved, but the supply pressure remained and the demand growth space was limited. The fundamentals were difficult to improve continuously, and the upward drive was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 272.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, the profit of state-owned holding enterprises decreased by 7.4%, that of joint-stock enterprises decreased by 1.5%, that of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 0.3%, and that of private enterprises increased by 3.4% [6]. - In May 2025, China issued 49.19 billion yuan of new bonds, including 4.87 billion yuan of general bonds and 44.32 billion yuan of special bonds. The total issuance of local government bonds was 77.95 billion yuan. From January to May, the total issuance of local government bonds was 431.48 billion yuan [7]. - On June 26, 2025, South Africa decided to impose a temporary safeguard measure tax of 52.34% on imported steel flat-rolled products from June 27 for 200 days [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,050 yuan, 3,160 yuan and 3,198 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190 yuan, 3,110 yuan and 3,227 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,910 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 950 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 708 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 692 yuan, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 7.43 yuan and 21.86 yuan respectively, the SGX swap price was 94.45 yuan, and the Platts index was 93.30 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.98%, a trading volume of 1,500,826 lots and an open interest of 2,142,813 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active hot-rolled coil contract was 3,121 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 613,616 lots and an open interest of 1,524,710 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 716.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.99%, a trading volume of 485,658 lots and an open interest of 679,900 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [15][22]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply pressure is increasing as the weekly output increased by 5.66 tons and reached a relatively high level this year. The demand is weak and stable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly by 0.72 tons and the high-frequency transactions remaining low. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the supply pressure is still large as the weekly output increased by 1.79 tons and remained at a high level this year. The demand is weakening, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.44 tons. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the tariff risk after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [38]. - For iron ore, the demand is resilient as the terminal consumption continues to rise, but the supply pressure remains as the port arrivals and miner shipments have both reached high levels this year. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate [39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 流动性边际宽松，国债期货小幅反弹 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性， 市场流动性边际宽松。回顾方面，5 月信贷、通胀数据表现偏弱，政策托底 需要偏宽松的货币环境，未来政策面降息预期升温，国债期货的中长期向上 逻辑较为牢靠。不过后续政策仍需等待 7 月重磅会议在政策面的指引，短期 内驱动动能预计有限。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5]. - Due to the weakening of geopolitical factors, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures and international methanol prices have declined. After a sharp drop on Tuesday and an oscillatory stabilization on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.67% to 2418 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, the intraday trend is oscillatory and strong, and the reference view is a strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol has oscillated and stabilized [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory and strong, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is a strong operation. The core logic is that the weakening of geopolitical factors has led to a decline in the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures and international methanol prices. After a sharp drop on Tuesday and an oscillatory stabilization on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.67% to 2418 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5].