Report Overview - This is a daily report on commodity arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on October 16, 2025, covering multiple sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 1. Power Coal - **Base Price Data**: The base price of power coal on October 15, 2025, was -70.4 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend compared to previous days. The price differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May were all 0.0 [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price and Ratio**: Data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt were provided, including base prices and ratios on different dates from October 9 - 15, 2025 [7]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base prices for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP were given for October 9 - 15, 2025, with some fluctuations [9]. - **Inter - Period Price Difference**: Inter - period price differences (May - January, September - January, September - May) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were presented [10]. - **Inter - Variety Price Difference**: Inter - variety price differences for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol were provided for October 9 - 15, 2025 [10]. 3. Black Metals - **Inter - Period Price Difference**: Inter - period price differences (May - January, September(10) - January, September(10) - May) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were reported, along with notes on rebar's main contract months [19]. - **Inter - Variety Price Difference**: Inter - variety price differences for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil were given for October 9 - 15, 2025 [19]. - **Base Price**: Base prices for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided for October 9 - 15, 2025 [20]. 4. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Price**: Domestic base prices for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were presented for October 9 - 15, 2025, showing significant fluctuations [28]. (2) London Market - **LME Data**: LME premiums and discounts, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 15, 2025, were reported [33]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: Base prices for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn were provided for October 9 - 15, 2025 [37]. - **Inter - Period Price Difference**: Inter - period price differences (May - January, September - January, September - May) for multiple agricultural products including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton were presented [37]. - **Inter - Variety Price Difference**: Inter - variety price differences for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch were given for October 9 - 15, 2025 [37]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: Base prices for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were provided for October 9 - 15, 2025 [48]. - **Inter - Period Price Difference**: Inter - period price differences (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were reported [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being weakly oscillating [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract continued the weakly oscillating trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.37% to 14,795 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: Although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market remain weak, so it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed a stable and slightly rising trend, with the futures price rebounding 0.84% to 10,835 yuan/ton, but it lacks the momentum to continue strengthening [7] - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, despite the weakening of macro - bearish sentiment, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market are still weak, and it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Thursday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term view on TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The short - term uncertainty of the tariff war is strong, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. In the short term, the domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the need for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient. In the long run, due to the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, there is an expectation of a loose monetary policy, which supports the Treasury bond futures. Overall, Treasury bond futures will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2512**: Short - term "oscillation", medium - term "oscillation", intraday "oscillating weakly", overall "oscillation". Core logic: Long - term interest rate cut expectation exists, short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL, T, TF, TS**: Intraday "oscillating weakly", medium - term "oscillation", reference view "oscillation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures closed slightly lower. Short - term tariff war uncertainty, strong domestic economic data resilience, insufficient short - term need for comprehensive interest rate cut, weak implicit interest rate cut expectation, lack of upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. Long - term insufficient effective domestic demand, expectation of loose monetary policy, strong support for Treasury bond futures. Short - term bottom - oscillating pattern [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, and palm oil 2601 are all "oscillating weakly" [6]. - The market sentiment of the soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is unstable, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, including potential tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, combined with the contradiction between high near - month inventory and expected far - month supply gaps in the domestic market, have weakened the support for the futures price of the soybean meal 2601 contract. The market sentiment is volatile, leading to a short - term weakly oscillating price [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous downward pressure on international oil prices has an overflow effect on the oil market. Meanwhile, the weakening of the palm oil industry chain exerts significant pressure on the market. The possible increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax may affect market sentiment. Until the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (not separately detailed in the text but included in the table) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term due to the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy support. In the medium term, it is expected to rise as the inflow trend of funds into A - shares remains unchanged and policy support is strong [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the overall view is "wide - range oscillation". The core logic is the conflict between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the fermentation of long - and medium - term policy - favorable expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "wide - range oscillation". Yesterday, all stock indexes oscillated and rebounded. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.0904 trillion yuan, a decrease of 506.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The market sentiment is generally optimistic, and there is capital entering the market on dips. However, there is also caution among funds chasing higher near the previous high. In the short term, there are external uncertainties and high valuation levels, leading to technical correction pressure. In the long - and medium - term, policy support is strong due to issues such as insufficient domestic demand and external tariff disturbances [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The short - term view on Iron Ore 2601 is bearish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways with a weak bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, as industry concerns are fermenting and the ore price is under downward pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Although the terminal consumption of ore remains high and the rigid demand is good, which supports the ore price, the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, industry concerns are fermenting, and the positive effect of demand is weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports is high, miners' shipments remain at a high level, overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. Currently, the ore supply is increasing, industry concerns are fermenting, the positive effect of ore demand is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market are starting to deteriorate, and the over - valued ore price will be under downward pressure. However, due to the high - level rigid demand for ore, there is resistance to the downward movement. A subsequent downward trend will require steel mills to cut production, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weak shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is also weak shock. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the steel price seeking the bottom weakly due to poor fundamentals [1] - The rebar fundamentals continue to be weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are not good, and it is expected that the steel price will continue the trend of seeking the bottom weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term is weak shock, the medium - term is shock, and the intraday is weak shock. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and the steel price is seeking the bottom weakly [1] Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals continue to be weak. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, supply is shrinking to a low level, but the kinetic energy of production reduction in the peak season is doubtful, and the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is limited. The demand for rebar is also poor, high - frequency indicators are declining weakly, and the downstream shows no improvement. The peak season is expected to be lackluster. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor, and the steel price is expected to continue the trend of seeking the bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the rebar supply - demand data released by Steel Union today [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices oscillated and rebounded. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.0904 trillion yuan, a decrease of 506.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The volume - shrinking rebound of the stock market reflects that the overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with funds entering the market on dips after corrections, and the downside space for stock indices is limited. At the same time, it also shows that funds chasing higher near the previous high points remain relatively cautious [4]. - In the short term, the tariff war has resurfaced, and external uncertainties have increased before November. Coupled with the current relatively high valuation level, investors' willingness to take profits has risen, and there is short - term technical correction pressure. In the medium to long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the disturbance of external tariff factors still remains. There are strong expectations for policy - makers to stabilize the macro - fundamentals, and the expectation of policy benefits forms strong support for the stock indices. The trend of net capital inflow into the A - share market remains unchanged, so the stock indices have strong medium - to - long - term support. Overall, under the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy support, the stock indices are expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term [4]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or covered calls [4]. Summary by Directory 1 Option Indicators - On October 15, 2025, the 50ETF rose 1.23% to close at 3.138; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.31% to close at 4.706; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.48% to close at 4.862; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.48% to close at 4606.29; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.50% to close at 7483.45; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.43% to close at 7.393; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.27% to close at 2.953; the ChiNext ETF rose 2.35% to close at 3.003; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 2.14% to close at 3.486; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.36% to close at 3001.35; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.35% to close at 1.50; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.10% to close at 1.47 [7]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various ETF options and index options are provided, showing the changes compared with the previous trading day [8]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various ETF options and index options are presented [9][10]. 2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [11][13][15]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [23][25][27]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [36][38][40]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [50][52][54]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [63][66][68]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [77][79][81]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [90][92][94]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [103][105][107]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [116][118][120]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [129][131][133]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [142][143][144]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [152][153][154].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak supply - demand structure and weak macro - expectations [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend under the pressure of weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend because of the US government shutdown, trade tariff war, OPEC + production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.6 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from the previous period. The utilization rate of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased due to holiday shutdowns. In September 2025, the logistics industry index and the new order index of logistics enterprises increased, and the heavy - truck market sales grew significantly [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 80.38%. The weekly production volume increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, etc., showed different changes. The port inventory increased slightly, and the inland inventory decreased [11][12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased. The US crude oil daily production increased. The commercial crude oil inventory increased, while the Cushing area inventory decreased. The refinery operating rate increased slightly. International crude oil futures prices declined, and the net long positions of WTI and Brent decreased [14][15]. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Basis Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14,895 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | - 645 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,327 yuan/ton | +22 yuan/ton | 2,298 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | +29 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 422.3 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.0 yuan/barrel | - 3.6 yuan/barrel | - 23.7 yuan/barrel | +3.5 yuan/barrel | [17] Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, and operating rate trends, with data sources from Wind and the Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [18][20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.85%. The fundamentals are weak, with industrial contradictions accumulating, high inventory de - stocking pressure under weak demand, and steel prices under pressure. Cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][35]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.86%. Currently, supply is high, demand has potential risks, industrial contradictions are accumulating, inventory de - stocking pressure is large, and prices are under pressure. There is a need to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][35]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore trended weakly, with a daily decline of 1.46%. Supply pressure remains, market sentiment has weakened, and high - valued ore prices have declined under pressure. However, high - level rigid demand for ore provides support, and there is resistance to downward movement. Before steel mills reduce production, ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **CPI and PPI in September**: The core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow. In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. The PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - **Heavy - truck sales in September**: In September 2025, China's truck market sold 312,000 vehicles, a 15% month - on - month increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. The heavy - truck market sold 105,600 vehicles, a 15% month - on - month increase and an 83% year - on - year increase, with the year - on - year increase expanding by 36 percentage points compared to August [7]. - **Brazil terminates anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tire steel cord**: On October 14, 2025, Brazil's Department of Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services announced the termination of the anti - dumping investigation on tire steel cord originating from China at the request of the applicant [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 20, 20, and 8 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 10, 20, and 6 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports decreased by 2, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates increased by 0.12 and 0.32 respectively, the SGX swap (current month) decreased by 1.81, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) decreased by 3.00 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,034, a decline of 0.85%. The trading volume was 1,018,136 with a decrease of 139,971, and the open interest was 2,051,545 with an increase of 60,083 [11]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,212, a decline of 0.86%. The trading volume was 501,197 with a decrease of 31,727, and the open interest was 1,469,405 with an increase of 17,676 [11]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 776.5, a decline of 1.46%. The trading volume was 305,761 with a decrease of 219,731, and the open interest was 508,365 with an increase of 8,566 [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [14][16][24] - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 45 ports' seasonal inventory, 247 steel mills' inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [21][22][26] - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent arc - furnace steel mills for building materials [28][30][34] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - **Rebar**: After the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Supply decreased but the space for further reduction during the peak season is questionable, and inventory is high. Demand is weak, and it is expected that prices will continue to oscillate and find the bottom, with attention paid to demand performance [35] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Supply is at a high level and inventory is high, while demand has potential risks. The price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35] - **Iron ore**: Supply and demand have changed. Demand is still okay, but the positive effect may weaken. Supply pressure has increased. Before steel mills reduce production, ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with attention paid to steel performance [36]