1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, with the steel price oscillating at a low level due to the weak and stable industrial pattern [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, with increased supply pressure and weakening demand. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season but is supported by costs, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable industrial pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The inventory increase has widened, production has risen to a relatively high level, and supply pressure has increased. However, short - process steel mills are expected to cut production as the Spring Festival approaches [3] - Rebar demand is declining weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators decreasing month - on - month and at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The demand pattern remains weak and continues to drag down steel prices [3] - The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. The positive factor is cost support, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 持续性驱动不足，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 基本面支撑有限，焦炭延续震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：继上周五宏观氛围走弱，贵金属有色普跌以 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. In the short - term, the upward driving force of the stock market is still weak, and the capital side is difficult to form a consensus. However, in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the continuous inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, and the logic of the stock index's upward movement in the long - run is relatively reliable [5] Group 3: Summary of Key Points by Category 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the overall view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the valuation has increased rapidly, the stock index is oscillating and consolidating, and the demand is rising [1] 2. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "strong - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2565.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan from the previous day. With the stabilization of gold and commodity prices, the resource cycle sector rebounded, and the risk preference of the stock market was restored. This rebound is a technical correction of the previous over - decline caused by the weakening of risk preference due to the sharp correction in the commodity market. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is still shrinking, indicating that the upward driving force of the stock market is still weak. Due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators and the "weak reality" pressure, combined with the fact that the increase in the stock rebound is mainly contributed by the valuation side, the willingness of the capital side to take profits and leave the market has increased, and it is difficult for the capital side to form a consensus in the short term [5]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term demand for thermal coal is strong, the inventory at northern ports is continuously decreasing, and downstream terminal enterprises still have restocking needs, which support the coal price to rebound slightly. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of thermal coal still face pressure. It is expected that the coal price will run in a narrow range at a low level before the Spring Festival, and may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Calculation of Price Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The daily - trading closing price is the end price to calculate the price change. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, an increase between 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and an increase of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [2][3] 3.3 Price and Market Logic of Thermal Coal - The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal is oscillating. The core logic is that during the critical period of peak winter power consumption, residential electricity consumption has improved significantly, and with two weeks to go before the Spring Festival, industrial electricity consumption has not declined. In the short term, the daily coal consumption of power plants has reached the peak of the year, and the restocking demand of downstream power plants and other terminal enterprises still exists, supporting the coal price to stabilize and rebound slightly. However, in the context of the peak season in January, the price of 5500K coal at ports only rose slightly by 11 yuan/ton, which also reflects the current weakness of the coal fundamentals and the market's bearish expectation of the subsequent coal supply - demand pattern [4]

品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆虽然收复部分跌幅，但全球充足供应施压市场。南美巴西大豆收割率提升，创纪录丰产预 期强化；中国后续或转向巴西采购，美国大豆出口检验量年度累计降 35.7%，对中国出口周环比下降 18%。 国内市场，节前备货尾声下游需求下滑。短期豆类市场受南美丰产与国内需求转弱主导，豆粕价格维持震 荡偏弱格局。近月明显承压，远月需关注供需边际变化影响。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏空情绪消化，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏空情绪消化，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东南亚 产区也将迎来低产季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。随着 能化偏空情绪有所 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side [1][5]. - The recent "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices and stronger basis, which has boosted bullish confidence in the futures market. It's predicted that domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is on the strong side [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The digestion of bearish sentiment has led to the stabilization of methanol's oscillation [1]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply, especially the supply disruption in Iran, is the key support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The reduction of domestic port inventory has driven the recovery of spot prices, strengthened the basis, and enhanced bullish confidence in the futures market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, and stock market trends. It shows that the macro - economy has certain fluctuations, the commodity market has policy - induced changes and price movements, and the financial and stock markets are also affected by multiple factors such as policies, market supply and demand, and international situations. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q4 2025 grew 4.5% year - on - year, lower than 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1] - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, up from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1] - In December 2025, social financing scale was 22,075 billion yuan, lower than 35,299 billion yuan in the previous month and 28,537 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The "14th" central No. 1 document on "Three Rural Issues" was released, aiming at rural revitalization [2] - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin ratios and price limit ranges of various commodity futures contracts [2][3] - On February 3, 2026, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis and 30 had negative basis [3] - CME's average daily contract trading volume in January increased 15% year - on - year to a record 29.6 million contracts [3] 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 6.83% and COMEX silver up 10.27% [5] - Global alumina production in 2025 reached 144.98 million tons, up 5.1% from 2024 [6] - Chile's copper production is expected to grow 3.7% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027, with the average price in 2026 expected to be $4.95 per pound [7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - Indonesian miners suspended thermal coal spot exports after the government proposed to cut coal production [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On February 3, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [10] - Four public fund companies warned of significant premiums in the secondary market trading prices of their crude oil and petroleum - themed funds [10] - The U.S. plans to issue licenses for companies to exploit Venezuelan oil [10] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Ukraine's white sugar production in 2025 dropped to 1.72 million tons, a 4% decrease [11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 3, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan [13] - On February 4, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [13] - In January 2026, the central bank's MLF had a net injection of 700 billion yuan, and PSL had a net injection of 174.4 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Important News - The 2026 central No. 1 document focused on rural revitalization, including financial support policies [15] - Rumors about VAT rate adjustments in the game and financial industries were untrue [15][16] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries [16] - The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank called for promoting the reasonable growth and balanced distribution of credit [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was mainly volatile, with treasury bond futures mostly rising [22] - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds rising and some falling [22][23] - The中证 Convertible Bond Index rose 2.63% [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 151 points, and the RMB central parity rate was raised 87 points [27] - The US dollar index fell 0.22%, and most non - US currencies rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - income said to focus on the expansion of free - trade offshore bonds and the possibility of using dim - sum bonds to take over free - trade bonds [28] - CITIC Securities expected that dividend insurance products and incremental funds from bank deposits would support 2026 premium income [28] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 4, 158 bonds will be listed, 163 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will make payments, and 55 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 3.4 Stock Market News - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% [31] - The Hong Kong stock market's main indexes recovered, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.22% [31] - The CSRC chairman met with the head of the UK's FCA to discuss regulatory cooperation [31] - In January, the number of new A - share accounts reached 4.9158 million, a 15 - month high [31]

一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | | （元/吨） | | 动力煤 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | | 9月-1月 9月-5月 | | | 5月-1月 | | 2026/02/03 | -109 | 4 . | | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | 0 . | | | | 2026/02/02 | -109 | 4 . | | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | 0 . | | | | 2026/01/30 | -109 | 4 . | | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | 0 . | | | | 2026/01/29 | -109 | 4 . | | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | 0 . | | | | 2026/01/28 | -111 | 4 . | 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 . . | | | . | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研 ...