热轧卷板周度数据（20251010） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 本周值 | | | 环比变化 | | 上月末值 | | | | 本月变化 | | | 同期值 | | | | | | 同期变化 | | 供给 | | | | | | 周度产量 | | | 323.29 | | -1.40 | | | 324.69 | | | | -1.40 | | | 308.19 | | | 15.10 | | | | | | | | | 高炉产能利用率（%） | | | | 90.55 | | -0.10 | | | 90.65 | | | | -0.10 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪尚可，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 螺纹钢：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹供应收缩，而需求表现疲弱，供需双弱局面下基本面并无实质性改 善，假期库存显著增加，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计 走势延续低位震荡态势，关注节后需求恢复情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.37%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应维持高位，而需求偏弱运行，基本面持续走弱，假期库存 显著增加，热卷价格承压偏弱运行，且需谨防需求转弱引发产业矛盾激 化，关注节后需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.02%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，节后商品情绪偏暖，且需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，但矿石供应 维持高位，基本面预期走弱，上行驱动也不强，多空因素博弈下预计矿 价维持高位震荡运行态势，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 10 月 10 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪主导 能化偏弱运行 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 15315 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.07%至 15315 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 40 元/吨。随着台风利多因素逐渐消化，胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构所 主导的行情中。在宏观预期偏弱的背景下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微上涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2308 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2281 元/吨，收盘时略微收涨 0.39%至 2307 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 44 元/吨。受偏弱的甲醇供需基本面压制，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 强预期弱现实，煤焦震荡整理 核心观点 焦炭：截至 10 月 10 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 112.5 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.12 万吨。需求端，247 家钢厂日均铁水产 量 241.54 万吨，周环比下降 0.27 万吨，钢厂盈利率 56.28%，环比减少 0.43 个百分点。整体来看，焦炭自身基本面向上驱动不足，且 10 月以来 新增利好有限，预计焦炭期货暂维持区间震荡运行。 （1）国家发改委：密切监测市场价格运行情况和 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶 偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 国庆长假期间，美国政府意外"停摆"，引发系统性风险，导致全球金融市场避险情绪急剧升温，风险 资产普遍承压。与此同时，台风"麦德姆"登陆并侵袭了我国南部重要产胶区，或带来减产预期，但产业方 面的利多预期难敌宏观层面的偏空情绪。节后归来，国内沪胶期货 2601 合约虽呈现超跌反弹态势，然而 期价受到 5 日均线的反向压制，并且当前中短期均线空头趋势明显，预计后市沪胶或延续偏弱运行姿态。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 美国政府"停摆"的负面影响凸显 由于美国国会参议院在当地时间 10 月 6 日未能通过新的临时拨款法案，民主党与共和党的提案均再 次被否决，美国政府"停摆"状态持续。美国政府在 2018 年年底至 2019 年年初为期 35 天的"停摆"给 GDP 造成了 30 亿美元的损失，据美国国会预算办公室估算，此次美国政府每"停摆"一周，经济增速将会下降约 0.15 个百分点，若把私营机构受到的影响计算在内，经济增速可能会下降 0.2 个百分点。整体来看，美国 政府"停摆"给经济和需求带来较大影响，并拖累大宗商品价格走势，这对沪胶期货同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term and medium - term increases and an intraday view of being oscillating strongly. The core logic is the start of interest rate cuts, intensified geopolitical situations, and the continuation of the upward trend in the medium and long term [1][3] - Copper is also expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday increases. The reason is the macro - loose background, renewed disturbances at the mine end, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1][5] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices rose and then fell. New York gold and London gold both fell below the $4000 mark, and Shanghai gold dropped to the 900 - yuan mark. During the National Day holiday, international gold prices rose continuously. New York gold futures and London gold broke through the $4000/ounce psychological barrier, with a holiday increase of over 4% and a year - to - date increase of over 50% [3] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which cooled geopolitical tensions, and the strong willingness of short - term bulls to close positions after a large previous increase. The strong performance of gold prices is driven by three factors: a surge in hedging demand, expectations of monetary policy, and a structural influx of funds [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game of overseas gold prices at $4000, corresponding to the 900 - yuan mark in China [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, copper prices rose and then fell. During the National Day, the LME copper price broke through $10500 and reached $10800, hitting a new high for the year [5] - **Core Logic**: The short - term decline is affected by the fall of precious metals and strong technical pressure at a nearly 5 - year high. The strong rise is caused by three factors: supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the pressure at the $11000 mark for overseas LME copper and the high in May 2024 for domestic copper [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] - The subsequent trend of the stock index focuses on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - positive expectations and the stop - profit rhythm of profit - making funds [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between short - term funds' stop - profit willingness and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index opened and closed higher, with the whole - day trading volume of 2671.8 billion yuan in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, 474.6 billion yuan more than the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points and reached a new high in nearly 10 years. External risk factors during the holiday had limited impact on A - shares, domestic consumption data was good, funds flowed back into the stock market after the holiday, and the policy - positive expectations of the important meeting in October continued to ferment, significantly increasing the risk preference of the stock market. However, the profit - repair expectations of enterprises were under pressure due to the slow repair of price indexes, and the stop - profit willingness of profit - making funds increased after the significant rise in the stock valuation. The performance of small - cap stocks that had risen significantly before was not as good as that of mid - cap stocks recently [5]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The fundamentals of thermal coal have weakened, and the inventory at northern ports has started to stabilize and rebound, putting pressure on coal prices. It is expected that the thermal coal price will remain weak after the holiday [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Not provided - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: During the National Day, port coal prices basically stabilized, while origin coal prices were under pressure and declined. The market atmosphere was generally weak during the transition between winter and summer. On the supply side, the impact of anti - involution production capacity verification was basically released in September, and coal mine production in major producing areas gradually recovered in October. Coupled with the good cost - effectiveness of imported coal, the overall supply of thermal coal increased steadily. On the demand side, during the National Day, the temperature in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, providing some support for residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed a seasonal weakening trend. In terms of inventory, as of September 26, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.2789 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 7300 tons, and 220000 tons lower than the same period last year [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that cost support has emerged, and steel prices have stabilized in a volatile manner [1]. - During the holiday, the rebar market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted but the reduction space in the peak season was questionable, and inventory was relatively high. Demand was weak and showed no improvement. The fundamentals had no substantial improvement, and inventory increased significantly during the holiday, putting pressure on steel prices. However, cost support was a positive factor. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the post - holiday demand recovery should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are judged as volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is cost support and price stabilization in a volatile manner [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the rebar market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply from construction steel mills weakened, but the reduction space in the peak season was uncertain, and inventory was relatively high. Demand was weak due to holiday factors and showed no improvement. The fundamentals had no substantial improvement, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices were under pressure. Cost support was a positive factor, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention on post - holiday demand recovery [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with GDP growing, but some indicators like CPI in negative territory. The holiday consumption market has a good momentum, and policies are expected to support economic growth in Q4 [1][15][16]. - The metal market is affected by various factors such as export controls and macro - economic trends. Copper prices are expected to rise, and silver has reached a historical high [4][5][7]. - The bond market has a positive start after the holiday, with yields mostly down. Different institutions have different outlooks on the bond market's future trends [19][26][27]. - The stock market has a strong performance after the holiday, with A - shares rising and certain sectors having significant movements. Stock ETFs have attracted large - scale capital inflows [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a 5.2% year - on - year growth at constant prices, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, the CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the social financing scale increment was 25668 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 5900 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption technical requirements for 2026 - 2027 are adjusted, and the pure - electric range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars is increased [2]. - The added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 7.6% year - on - year in the first eight months, outperforming large enterprises [2][15]. - Regulatory measures are taken to address price disorderly competition in some industries [2][14]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2.2 Metal - China implements export controls on multiple metal - related items and includes foreign entities in the unreliable entity list [4][14]. - London basic metals rose on October 9, 2025, with LME copper hitting $11,000 per ton for the first time since May 2024 [4]. - Spot silver prices reached a record high, and silver futures have risen by over 70% this year [5]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [6]. - High - grade copper premiums in Europe are expected to reach a record high in 2026, and Goldman Sachs raises its copper price forecast for 2026 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtains new mining rights for associated minerals such as lithium [8]. - Copper production of some major mines in Chile decreased in August 2025 [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Russia destroys 60% of Ukraine's natural gas production capacity before winter [10]. - The US expects India to reduce Russian oil purchases [10]. - Saudi Arabia sets the official selling price of Arabian light crude oil to the US in November [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The State Development and Reform Commission releases the application and allocation rules for grain import tariff quotas in 2026 [11]. - Pig prices have fallen below the cost line and may continue to decline [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 5 decreased by 6.62% month - on - month [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 9, 2025, the central bank carried out a 6120 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan [12]. - The central bank conducts a 11000 - billion - yuan 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan in October [13]. 3.3.2 Key News - China strengthens extraterritorial jurisdiction through export controls and lists foreign entities [4][14]. - Regulatory measures are taken to address price disorderly competition [2][14]. - The holiday consumption market has a good growth momentum [15]. - Policies are expected to support economic growth in Q4 [16]. - The bond ETF market has expanded significantly this year [16]. - Some securities firms raise capital through fixed - increase and bond issuance [17]. - Some bond - related events include debt maturity, new borrowing, and disciplinary actions [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - After the holiday, the bond market has a positive start, with yields mostly down and futures up [19]. - Different bond varieties have different price movements in the exchange and over - the - counter markets [19][20]. - Interest rates in the money market show mixed trends [20][21]. - Bond issuance yields and related multiples are announced [22]. - European and US bond yields mostly rise [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB depreciates against the US dollar, while the off - shore RMB appreciates [24]. - The US dollar index rises, and most non - US currencies fall [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market will be in a weak shock in October, and investors should pay attention to potential opportunities [26]. - CITIC Securities predicts the bond market trend based on policy and liquidity factors [26][27]. - CITIC Securities analyzes the impact of the US government shutdown and the expected decline of Chinese deposit rates [27]. - Hongze Fixed Income Ye Qing comments on the investment risks of science - tech enterprises [27]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - Multiple bonds are scheduled for listing, issuance, payment, and principal - and - interest repayment on October 10, 2025 [28][29]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - shares perform strongly after the holiday, with some sectors having significant gains and losses [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market has mixed performance, with some stocks having large net purchases or sales [30]. - Stock ETFs have attracted over 1100 billion yuan in September [30]. - The online issuance of Shanghai ETFs will be optimized [31].