Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The futures and spot prices have shown an upward trend in the past 10 trading days, while the basis has weakened. The registered warehouse receipts have generally increased, and the supply has slightly shrunk due to pre - Spring Festival maintenance and tight lithium mica raw materials in Jiangxi [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2605.GFE was 181,520 yuan/ton, up 12,740 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the settlement price was 177,320 yuan/ton, up 8,160 yuan/ton from the previous day [4][6]. - **Lithium Concentrate**: The prices of Australian, Brazilian, Zimbabwean, and Malian CIF6 China lithium spodumene concentrates increased compared to the previous day, while the price of South African CIF China lithium spodumene ore also increased. The prices of various grades of lithium mica in China showed an upward trend compared to the previous day but a downward trend compared to the previous week [6]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric - grade lithium carbonate was 171,050 yuan/ton, up 6,490 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 161,080 yuan/ton, up 4,460 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate was - 9,970 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials increased. The price of manganese - acid lithium electrolyte remained unchanged, and the price of cobalt - acid lithium remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: The charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate spot, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: The charts display the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][13][17]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, each stock index fluctuated and showed differentiation. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 led the gains, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 slightly declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3.1181 trillion yuan, an increase of 401.7 billion yuan from the previous day [4]. - The positive policy expectations and the continuous net - inflow of incremental funds into the stock market are the main supporting forces for the upward movement of the stock index. These two factors remain unchanged in the medium and long term, and the logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index is relatively solid [4]. - In the short term, the policy support needs, the promotion of technological innovation, and the expectation of boosting consumption are relatively clear, which strongly support the stock index. Although the regulatory authorities have sent signals to control risks, the trading volume of the stock market remains at a relatively high level, indicating that market sentiment is still optimistic. In general, the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4]. - Regarding options, since the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock index is relatively solid, a bull spread strategy can be considered [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 23, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.80% to close at 3.106; the 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.49% to close at 4.704; the 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.57% to close at 4.898; the CSI 300 index fell 0.45% to close at 4702.50; the CSI 1000 index rose 1.94% to close at 8470.74; the 500ETF (SSE) rose 2.95% to close at 8.719; the 500ETF (SZSE) rose 2.94% to close at 3.466; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.66% to close at 3.337; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.43% to close at 3.502; the SSE 50 index fell 0.69% to close at 3032.19; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.80% to close at 1.64; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.76% to close at 1.58 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 23, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in February 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are presented [8][9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts 3.2.1 SSE 50ETF Options - Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [10][11][12]. 3.2.2 SSE 300ETF Options - Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [22][23]. 3.2.3 SZSE 300ETF Options - Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [25][26][27]. 3.2.4 CSI 300 Index Options - Charts contain the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [37][38][39]. 3.2.5 CSI 1000 Index Options - Charts include the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [40][41][42]. 3.2.6 SSE 500ETF Options - Charts cover the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [55][56][57]. 3.2.7 SZSE 500ETF Options - Charts involve the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [68][69][70]. 3.2.8 ChiNext ETF Options - Charts include the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [81][82][83]. 3.2.9 Shenzhen 100ETF Options - Charts cover the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [94][95][96]. 3.2.10 SSE 50 Index Options - Charts involve the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [107][108][109]. 3.2.11 STAR 50ETF Options - Charts include the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [120][121][122]. 3.2.12 E Fund STAR 50ETF Options - Charts cover the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for different tenors [130][131][132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rubber: On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating upward, and closing sharply higher. The price center of the contract during the session moved significantly above the 16,300 yuan/ton line. The contract closed up 3.29% at 16,315 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 95 yuan/ton. The overall strength of the energy - chemical sector boosted Shanghai rubber futures into a bullish atmosphere. It is expected that the rubber price may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [6]. - Methanol: On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating and stabilizing, and closing sharply higher. The contract price reached a maximum of 2,303 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,246 yuan/ton, closing up 2.96% at 2,298 yuan/ton, and the discount of the May - September spread widened to 21 yuan/ton. As geopolitical risks become prominent again, methanol futures may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend [6]. - Crude Oil: On Friday, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 442.5 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 434.3 yuan/barrel, closing down 0.99% at 441.9 yuan/barrel. As geopolitical risks in the Middle East become prominent again, the premium of crude oil has been raised again, and the short - term oil price will maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%, and the general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The foreign trade orders of some semi - steel tire enterprises supported the slight increase in production scheduling, while most other enterprises maintained stable production schedules. The shipment pressure of all - steel tires increased, and some enterprises moderately controlled production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate slightly. Currently, it is the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking period, and most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production schedules to reserve inventory for post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the scale of production and sales has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. Cumulatively, in 2025, the total sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market reached 1.137 million, the highest in the past four years, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.23%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.009 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the previous year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 25.43%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 5.33%. In addition, the dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.79%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 84.70%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 24,600 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,600 tons. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 12,500 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a slight week - on - week increase of 1, and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 14.386 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.063 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.478 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 414.5 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 806,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.3%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 13, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 58,128 contracts, a slight week - on - week increase of 776 contracts and a slight decrease of 643 contracts or 1.09% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 13, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was maintained at 193,366 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 72,680 contracts and a significant increase of 87,907 contracts or 83.36% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,800 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 16,315 yuan/ton | +465 yuan/ton | -515 yuan/ton | -265 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,298 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | -18 yuan/ton | -8 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 423.4 yuan/barrel | -0.5 yuan/barrel | 441.9 yuan/barrel | -4.5 yuan/barrel | -18.6 yuan/barrel | +3.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 spread, warehouse inventory, and tire - production capacity utilization rate), methanol (such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 spread, port inventory, inland inventory, olefin - production operating rate, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, warehouse inventory, U.S. commercial inventory, refinery operating rate, and net position changes of WTI and Brent crude oil), but no specific chart data is provided [15][16][18][22][24][26][28][30][32][34][36][38][40][42][43][45][47][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current pig market is in a critical stage of deep supply - demand game, with contradictions mainly concentrated in the supply side. In the short term, there is a mismatch between a definite and concentrated supply peak and an uncertain, dispersed, and weak demand release. In the long - term, the root problem is over - capacity, and the process of supply - demand re - balance in the pig industry is significantly prolonged. The cycle reversal of the pig market has not arrived, and it is necessary to wait for a greater reduction in the number of fertile sows [9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Change in the Logic of Pig Price Uptrend - After mid - January, the logic supporting the upward movement of pig prices changed. The pig slaughter volume increased significantly, especially as second - fattening farmers were more willing to cash in. The main 2603 contract of pig futures has fallen below 11,500 yuan/ton since mid - January. Market sentiment has turned from optimistic to cautious due to weak consumption expectations in March and underperforming economic data [6] 3.2 Continued Loose Supply Pattern - On January 19, economic data showed that the pig market's supply - loose pattern continued. The 59.38 million tons of pork production suppressed prices. The decline rate of fertile sows was slow and remained above the normal level. Due to increased production efficiency, the actual reduction in effective pig production capacity was much less than the decline in the number of sows, which is the main contradiction in the current pig market [7] 3.3 Intensified Supply - Demand Mismatch before Spring Festival - Slaughter enterprises are strongly willing to suppress purchase prices to reduce losses, which inhibits market demand. Traders and slaughter enterprises have low willingness to build frozen - product inventories, so all supply pressure is directly transmitted to the fresh - product market. The Spring Festival in 2026 is about 20 days later than usual, delaying and lengthening the pre - festival demand peak. Various types of consumption, such as southern pickling, northern killing of New - Year pigs, and supermarket and wholesale - market stocking, are all weaker than expected [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For coke, as of the week ending January 23, the combined daily average coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 900 tons. This week, the coke inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. The total inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 113,100 tons week - on - week to 6.6164 million tons, and the available days of coke were 12.35 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 days. Overall, there are no obvious positive factors in coke's fundamentals, and the support from coking coal on the cost side is also limited. The main contract will temporarily remain in a low - level range [5][31]. - For coking coal, the production is stable, imports remain at a high level, and demand is still sluggish, with no improvement in fundamentals. As of the week ending January 23, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 770,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons and 36,000 tons higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 20, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 19,890 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 24.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. As of the week ending January 23, the combined daily average coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons [5][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January will be about 1.8 million units, and new - energy vehicles are expected to reach 800,000 units. In 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience and vitality. The total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, 0.2 percentage points faster than in 2024. The new - for - old policy was effective, with the sales of relevant goods exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. Among them, over 11.5 million vehicles were replaced. In 2026, a new round of new - for - old subsidies has been launched, which is expected to support the automobile market throughout the year. This month, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars are expected to be about 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year flat to slightly increase. New - energy vehicle retail sales can reach about 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4% [7]. - On January 23, the prices of coking coal in the Xingtai market remained stable. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,420 yuan/ton, and the price of 1/3 coking coal was 1,170 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory prices including cash and tax [8]. Spot Market - The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1,470 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 3.29%, an annual decrease of 13.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.55%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1,450 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2.03%, no monthly change, an annual decrease of 10.49%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.84% [9]. - The current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,240 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.06%, a monthly increase of 9.73%, an annual increase of 5.08%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,560 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.89%, a monthly increase of 3.31%, an annual increase of 4.70%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.70%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,780 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.71%, a monthly increase of 4.71%, an annual increase of 16.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.46% [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract is 1,722 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.59%, a maximum price of 1,749 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,682 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 21,987 lots (an increase of 9,497 lots), and an open interest of 37,878 lots (a decrease of 238 lots) [13]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract is 1,157 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.84%, a maximum price of 1,170.5 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,124 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 1,077,875 lots (an increase of 341,687 lots), and an open interest of 500,996 lots (a decrease of 20,065 lots) [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills), domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw purchases, coal - washing plant production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [13][24][30]. Market Outlook - The situation of coke and coking coal is the same as the core viewpoints, with coke having limited fundamentals and cost - side support, and coking coal having stable production, high imports, and sluggish demand [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore supply is shrinking, but the high inventory weakens the positive effect. The demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of iron ore has not improved, putting pressure on ore prices. The relatively positive factors are the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills and the warming of commodity sentiment. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to show a stable and fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the restocking intensity of steel mills [2]. 3. Catalog Summary Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,766.53, with a week - on - week increase of 211.43, a month - end increase of 795.64 compared to last month, and an increase of 1,889.59 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,388.82, with a week - on - week increase of 126.60, a month - end increase of 442.28 compared to last month, and a decrease of 470.11 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,659.70, a week - on - week decrease of 260.70, a month - end increase of 58.30 compared to last month, and an increase of 154.30 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The global iron ore shipping volume is 2,929.80, a week - on - week decrease of 251.13, a month - end decrease of 747.32 compared to last month, and a decrease of 549.60 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.10, a week - on - week increase of 0.09, a month - end increase of 0.67 compared to last month, and an increase of 2.90 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 310.73, a week - on - week decrease of 9.16, a month - end decrease of 14.48 compared to last month, and a decrease of 7.53 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 281.90, a week - on - week increase of 0.06, a month - end increase of 1.23 compared to last month, and an increase of 1.07 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. - The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 102.10, a week - on - week increase of 3.76, a month - end increase of 21.42 compared to last month, and a decrease of 10.25 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly futures research report on rebar dated January 23, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Rebar supply has rebounded to a high level, while demand is weak, leading to a continuous weakening of the fundamentals. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season. The futures price has fallen near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [12] Group 4: Data Summary Supply - The weekly rebar output is 199.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.25 tons, and a month - to - date increase of 11.33 tons compared to the end of last month. The output is at a relatively high level, increasing the supply pressure [3] - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a month - to - date increase of 0.25 percentage points compared to the end of last month [3] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar is 185.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.82 tons and a month - to - date decrease of 14.92 tons compared to the end of last month. It is at a low level in recent years [3] - The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 7.78, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 and a month - to - date decrease of 1.84 compared to the end of last month. It is also at a low level in recent years [3] Inventory - The total rebar inventory is 452.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.03 tons and a month - to - date increase of 30.07 tons compared to the end of last month. The inventory inflection point has reappeared [3] - The in - factory inventory is 148.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.32 tons and a month - to - date increase of 9.61 tons compared to the end of last month [3] - The social inventory is 303.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71 tons and a month - to - date increase of 20.46 tons compared to the end of last month [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the iron ore price is expected to show a stable and fluctuating trend. Although the supply pressure has not been alleviated and the demand is weak, the positive factors are the pre - holiday restocking of steel mills and the warming of commodity sentiment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating and slightly stronger, with an overall view of oscillating and stabilizing. The core logic is the positive commodity sentiment [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore remains weak. The inventory is rising at a high level, steel mill production is weakly stable, and terminal consumption of ore has little change. The steel market in the off - season has accumulated contradictions, and demand continues to operate weakly. The positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking of steel mills [3]. - Domestic port arrivals have declined from a high level, and miner shipments have continued to decrease. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent arrivals will decline, leading to a contraction in ore supply. However, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure has not been relieved [3].

期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 乐观情绪有所降温，震荡整固需 求仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 27164 亿元，较上日放量 928 亿元。目 前股市成交金额回落至 3 万亿元下方，表明市场情绪有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a slightly weaker intraday trend, due to the weak - stable supply - demand situation [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and slightly weaker", and the overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is the weak - stable supply - demand pattern [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has increased significantly to a relatively high level as construction steel mills are actively producing, increasing supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand is weak, with most high - frequency demand indicators falling and at low levels compared to previous years. The downstream industry has not improved, showing obvious off - season weakness, which continues to drag down steel prices. Although the futures price has fallen near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance, the steel price is still under pressure in the off - season and is expected to continue the low - level oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]