一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2824.70 万吨，环比增 96.90 万吨，再度回升且位于相对高位；其中澳矿、巴 西矿分别增 72.10、70.60 万吨，非澳巴矿环比降 45.70 万吨，高位有所回落。 2、海外矿石发运高位回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3213.70 万吨，环比减 463.42 万吨，年末冲量结束 后如期回落。其中主流矿商多数减量，四大矿商合计减 272.34 万吨万吨；细分地区看澳矿、巴西矿、非 澳巴矿分别降 174.12、142.68、146.62 万吨，均迎来明显减量。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量趋稳，而矿商发运在回落，供应有所收缩，关注持续性。 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 1 周） 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Treasury bond futures to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, with upper pressure and lower support. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still medium - to - long - term expectations of monetary policy easing [1][5] 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening". The reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly retraced. In the long - run, due to insufficient domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts in 2026, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short - term, the macro data shows strong resilience, reducing the urgency of monetary policy easing. Coupled with the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter, the momentum for the rebound of Treasury bond futures is weak [5]

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美豆期价在 1050 美分/蒲式耳震荡。虽巴西收割量偏低，但美豆出口窗口收窄，而阿根廷南部 高温少雨引发市场关注，带动美豆粕低位反弹，后续需紧盯巴西收割进度与阿根廷天气变化。国内市场静 待拍卖消息；豆粕延续近强远弱格局，远月受美豆疲软、人民币升值等压制，短期低位震荡反复。整体看， 豆类市场多空交织，美豆聚焦南美收割与天气博弈，国内则受现货报价松动及政策预期影响，短期难破震 荡区间。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素提振，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：节前海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是节前支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货端的坚挺直接反馈到了期货市场上，增强了多头信心。本周 一夜盘，国内甲醇期货再度大幅反弹，外部进口预期下降盖过弱现实需求疲软。预计本周二国内甲 醇期 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 需求支撑不足，焦煤低位整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 现货承压，焦炭弱势震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 1 月 2 日当周，全国 523 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a strong - leaning pattern on the short - term, mid - term, and intraday basis, with an overall view of strong - leaning operation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", while the intraday view is "strong - leaning". The overall view is "strong - leaning operation" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The weakening of geopolitical risks in Thailand and Cambodia has reduced the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply, weakening the bullish drive. However, domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber production areas are in the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure. Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. Meanwhile, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and December heavy - truck sales are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, the rubber market maintains a strong - leaning pattern [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", while the intraday view is "strong - leaning". The overall view is "strong - leaning operation" [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data, better - than - expected December heavy - truck sales data, and the strong - leaning oscillation pattern of Shanghai rubber futures indirectly support synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand outlook for synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere is dominant [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The report believes that the crude oil market is dominated by supply - demand surplus, and the price of domestic crude oil futures is expected to run weakly with a volatile trend. Although geopolitical risks may drive up oil prices, the long - term logic of weak supply - demand fundamentals will suppress oil prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is "oscillating", and the short - term downward trend of domestic crude oil futures still exists [1][5] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2602 and domestic crude oil futures is "oscillating" [1][5] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2602 and domestic crude oil futures is "weak", with a reference view of "running weakly" [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factor**: During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased due to the US military operation in Venezuela and the US president's threat to other South American countries, which may drive up oil prices after the holiday [5] - **Negative Factor**: The long - term logic of the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the main reason for the suppression of oil prices. The global supply surplus concern persists, and the pessimistic sentiment among funds remains [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillating and slightly strong, and the reference view is to wait and see. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are beneficial to the gold price [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is rising, and the reference view is to be bullish in the long run. The core drivers are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and long - term AI narrative [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - The intraday view is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is to wait and see. Yesterday, the gold price oscillated after reaching a high during the day and continued to strengthen at night. The US military's air strike on Venezuela on January 3rd and the capture of the Venezuelan president increased market risk - aversion, causing the gold price to open higher. The high post - holiday market risk preference and liquidity are also factors pushing up the gold price. Keep an eye on the long - short game at the 1000 - yuan mark of Shanghai gold [3] Copper (CU) - The intraday view is rising, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is to be bullish in the long run. After the New Year's Day holiday, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, becoming strong again and standing above the 100,000 - yuan mark, while LME copper stood above the $13,000 mark. The core drivers are macro - liquidity relaxation, mine - end disturbances, and long - term AI narrative. Macro and financial factors provide "fuel" for the rise of copper prices. The supply - side (mine - end) constraints build a solid "floor", as the delay of the second - phase project of Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador Copper Mine in Ecuador and production interruptions in other large copper mines lead to less - than - expected new supply of global copper mines. The demand - side new narrative forms a long - term support [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level oscillations. Its short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. - The iron ore market is in a state where the supply - demand sides have changed. Although the demand has increased to some extent and the supply has decreased, the fundamentals remain weak, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The overall view is high - level oscillation, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills have started to resume production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the improvement in profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market cannot support a large - scale increase in production, so the rebound space of ore demand is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again, but after the year - end rush, the miners' shipments have dropped significantly, and the domestic ore supply is also seasonally shrinking, so the ore supply has dropped from a high level. Currently, due to steel mills' restocking and structural contradictions in the spot market, the ore price remains at a high level, but the supply is relatively high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This is a futures research report from Baocheng Futures, presenting daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on January 6, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis of power coal from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, with the basis on January 5, 2026, being - 116.4 yuan/ton. The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts are all 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and other indicators are presented from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026. For example, on January 5, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is 26.43 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided. For instance, on January 5, 2026, the basis of rubber is - 240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January spread of rubber is 35 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 1736 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are shown. On January 5, 2026, the basis of rebar is 166.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September(10) - January, and September(10) - May contracts of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The May - January spread of rebar is 23.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.91 [18]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are given. On January 5, 2026, the basis of copper is - 770 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data such as LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 5, 2026, are presented. For example, the LME premium of copper is 38.60, and the import profit/loss is (1543.51) [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans - 1, soybeans - 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided. On January 5, 2026, the basis of soybeans - 1 is - 163 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts of soybeans - 1, soybeans - 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The May - January spread of soybeans - 1 is 56 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of soybeans - 1/corn, soybeans - 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the soybeans - 1/corn ratio is 1.92 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are shown. On January 5, 2026, the basis of CSI 300 is 20.75 [48]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [48].