1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy shows a mixed performance in various indicators, with GDP growth slightly slowing, manufacturing PMI improving, and inflation showing positive changes. The government continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote economic growth, stabilize prices, and prevent financial risks. The commodity market has different trends, with precious metals and base metals rising, while energy and some agricultural products falling. The stock market has positive momentum, and the bond market is under pressure [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year's 4.6%. Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from the previous month's 49.8%. Non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, with a slight increase from the previous month but a decline from the same period last year. Social financing in November 2025 was 24888 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates all decreased compared to the previous month. New RMB loans in November 2025 were 3900 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous month. CPI in November 2025 was 0.7% year - on - year, turning positive from the previous month's - 0.4%. PPI was - 2.2% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - to - date in November 2025, and social consumption increased by 4.0%. Exports in November 2025 increased by 5.90% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.90% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The People's Bank of China plans to use various monetary policy tools in 2026, strengthen financial market supervision, and crack down on illegal activities. China bans the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and related purposes [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On January 6, 2026, international precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce. London base metals also rose across the board, with LME nickel up 8.39% to $18430.0 per ton, LME tin up 4.79% to $44500.0 per ton, etc. [3]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - On January 6, 2026, the main contract of US crude oil fell 2.31% to $56.97 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 1.96% to $60.55 per barrel [4]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - On January 6, 2026, the Bloomberg Grains Sub - index fell 0.30%. CBOT corn, wheat, and soybeans futures all declined, while ICE raw sugar, white sugar, and some coffee futures rose, and New York and London cocoa futures fell [5][6]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 6, 2026, the central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%. With 3125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 2963 billion yuan [7]. 3.3.2 Key News - The 2026 PBOC Work Conference emphasizes continuing a moderately loose monetary policy, promoting economic growth and price recovery, and preventing financial risks. The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Administration Work Conference focuses on reform and opening - up, risk prevention, and ensuring the safety of foreign exchange reserves. China bans dual - use item exports to Japan for military purposes. The emotional consumption market in China is growing rapidly. Four departments encourage employee cultural and sports consumption. The inbound tourism market had a good start during the New Year's Day holiday. Shanghai encourages foreign - invested enterprises to reinvest in China. Henan introduces measures to boost the economy in Q1 2026. China's automobile production and sales are expected to reach a new high in 2025, with new energy vehicles leading the market. Regulators survey wealth management companies to promote long - term funds entering the A - share market. Many small and medium - sized banks have adjusted deposit interest rates. China Gas Holdings starts issuing panda bonds. Trump's team is discussing ways to acquire Greenland. There are bond - related events such as new debt defaults and credit rating changes [8][9][10]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China is under pressure, with rising yields of interest - rate bonds and falling bond futures. The stock market's strength affects bond market sentiment. In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rise and some fall. The convertible bond index rises. Money market rates show different trends, and bond issuance yields are announced. US bond yields rise, while European bond yields fall [16][17][20]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Update - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9813 on January 6, 2026, with a 7 - point decline. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 57 points. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies showed different trends [22]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment points out that Jiangsu's industrial assets are large, with significant north - south differences. Western Securities believes that the new regulations on public fund sales are beneficial to the bond market in January 2026. CITIC Securities says that China's bond market opening - up will promote foreign investment in the long - run, despite short - term fluctuations [23][24]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On January 7, 2026, 153 bonds will be listed, 99 bonds will be issued, 106 bonds will require payment, and 96 bonds will pay principal and interest [25]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with technology stocks, insurance, and brokerage stocks performing well. Southbound capital had net purchases. Regulators survey wealth management companies to promote long - term funds entering A - share market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges released the latest issuance and listing review dynamics. The number of new A - share accounts in 2025 increased significantly [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on January 7, 2026, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are - 131.4, - 131.4, - 123.4, - 116.4, - 113.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being - 5.19 yuan/ton on January 6, 2026 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on January 6, 2026, is - 400 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 35 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, LLDPE - PVC is 1648 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 33.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, rebar/iron ore is 3.89 [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on January 6, 2026, is 159.0 yuan/ton [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on January 6, 2026, is - 1600 yuan/ton [28] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is 2.98 [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on January 6, 2026, is - 196 yuan/ton [37] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 61 [37] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, soybeans No.1/corn is 1.92 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on January 6, 2026, is 12.69 [48] - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [48]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 观望情绪仍存，煤焦震荡调整 核心观点 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 黑色金属 | 日报 一 产业资讯 焦炭：1 月 06 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1655 元/吨，日内录得 0.72%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.67 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1564 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.29%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1440 元/吨， 周环比下跌 0.69%。当前，下游复产和冬储或给焦炭价格带来一定支撑， 预计主力合约下跌存一定阻力，但能否向上反弹仍需关注需求改善情况以 及政策端有无 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 6, 2026, all stock indices rose significantly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.8322 trillion yuan, an increase of 265 billion yuan from the previous day. The continuous increase in trading volume after the holiday is mainly due to the return of market liquidity and the rising expectation of policy benefits. The policy emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, which drives the significant rise of related industrial chain stocks. The margin trading balance and margin trading amount have both increased, indicating strong willingness of leveraged funds to enter the market and optimistic market sentiment. In the medium to long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow are the main drivers for the upward movement of stock indices. With the implementation of policy benefits in 2026 and continuous net capital inflow, the risk appetite of the stock market will continue to rise. It is expected that the stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. For options, since the current position PCR and implied volatility are within the normal range, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 6, 2026, the 50ETF rose 1.92% to close at 3.235; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.55% to close at 4.919; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.52% to close at 4.996; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.55% to close at 4790.69; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.43% to close at 7864.90; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.17% to close at 7.961; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.15% to close at 3.141; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.67% to close at 3.303; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.08% to close at 3.553; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.90% to close at 3158.76; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.76% to close at 1.51; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.89% to close at 1.46 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 6, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day were provided, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 58.87 (previous day: 91.01), and the position PCR was 107.49 (previous day: 109.04) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options were provided, such as the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in January 2026 was 13.26%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.68% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [9][11][13][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [22][24][26][32]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [35][37][39][41][45]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [48][50][52][54][58]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [61][64][66][68][72]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [75][77][79][83]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [88][90][92][97]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Included charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [101][103][105][111]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [114][116][118][124]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [127][129][131][137]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [140][142][144][148]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [151][153][154].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而需求表现偏弱，基本面表现不佳，淡季钢价继续 承压，相对利好的是政策预期，预计钢价延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，产业矛盾未加剧，价格延续低位震荡，但 产量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，一旦其走弱则供需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices increased with rising positions and maintained strong performance today with continuous growth in positions. The closing price today rose nearly 4,000 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic macro - environment continued to warm up, leading to a general rise in assets. Against the backdrop of a shrinking copper industry supply and renewed disturbances at the mine end, there was a resonance of macro and industrial benefits. In the short term, macro and industrial expectations are driving copper prices up, but the industry is in a weak - reality stage with continuously rising global electrolytic copper inventories [6]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, Shanghai aluminum prices increased with rising positions, and the main contract price reached the 24,000 yuan mark. It maintained a strong and volatile operation today with a decrease in positions. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic macro - environment continued to warm up, leading to a general rise in assets. The industry followed passively, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. Recently, the strong performance of aluminum prices has benefited to some extent from macro - easing and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. In the short term, aluminum prices are approaching the highs of 2022 and 2021, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 135,000 yuan, and today it rose close to the 140,000 - yuan mark. Since this week, the macro - environment has been favorable, and the general rise of non - ferrous metals has largely driven up nickel prices. Since late December, nickel prices have rebounded from the 110,000 - yuan mark to the 130,000 - yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decrease in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the position volume of nickel prices has not continued to rise, which may reflect insufficient willingness of funds to drive. Continuous attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - After the New Year's Day holiday, copper prices reached a new high. The downstream demand of refined copper rods in various fields remained weak, and orders did not improve significantly compared to before the holiday. Some refined copper rod enterprises continued to suspend production and said they would wait and see the copper price trend to formulate production plans. On January 5, LME copper prices exceeded $13,000 per ton for the first time due to a strike at a Chilean copper mine, supply gap expectations, and low inventories in LME - certified warehouses. On January 5, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared to the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared to the 31st [10]. Aluminum - On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared to the 25th [10]. Nickel - On the supply side, with the continuous rise of the futures price, the market sentiment was bullish, and upstream enterprises continued to raise their quotes. On the demand side, there was a small amount of rigid - demand replenishment from downstream, and some traders were actively buying, pushing up the transaction price. Overall, the market transaction price continued to rise, and the price of high - nickel pig iron was expected to continue to increase [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that they will run with a bias towards strength in a volatile manner, and the medium - term view is that they will be volatile. The reference view is also a volatile and upward - biased trend. The main driving logic is the policy - favorable expectations, the inflow trend of funds, the strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, and the return of market liquidity after the holiday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", the intraday view is "biased towards strength", and the reference view is "volatile and upward - biased". The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the trend of net capital inflow [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "biased towards strength", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "volatile and upward - biased". The core logic is that the stock indexes rose significantly yesterday, with the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reaching 2567.2 billion yuan, an increase of 501.5 billion yuan from the previous day. After the holiday, market liquidity returned, policy - favorable expectations continued to ferment, and the risk appetite of the stock market significantly recovered. The strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, policy - favorable expectations, and the net capital inflow trend drive the upward movement of the stock index. The policy has determined to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, which will boost domestic demand and promote the performance restoration of listed companies. With the decline of the domestic risk - free interest rate, funds seeking high returns will increase the proportion of stock market asset allocation, and the long - term trend of net capital inflow into the stock market is established [5]

一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2824.70 万吨，环比增 96.90 万吨，再度回升且位于相对高位；其中澳矿、巴 西矿分别增 72.10、70.60 万吨，非澳巴矿环比降 45.70 万吨，高位有所回落。 2、海外矿石发运高位回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3213.70 万吨，环比减 463.42 万吨，年末冲量结束 后如期回落。其中主流矿商多数减量，四大矿商合计减 272.34 万吨万吨；细分地区看澳矿、巴西矿、非 澳巴矿分别降 174.12、142.68、146.62 万吨，均迎来明显减量。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量趋稳，而矿商发运在回落，供应有所收缩，关注持续性。 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 1 周） 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Treasury bond futures to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, with upper pressure and lower support. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still medium - to - long - term expectations of monetary policy easing [1][5] 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening". The reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly retraced. In the long - run, due to insufficient domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts in 2026, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short - term, the macro data shows strong resilience, reducing the urgency of monetary policy easing. Coupled with the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter, the momentum for the rebound of Treasury bond futures is weak [5]

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美豆期价在 1050 美分/蒲式耳震荡。虽巴西收割量偏低，但美豆出口窗口收窄，而阿根廷南部 高温少雨引发市场关注，带动美豆粕低位反弹，后续需紧盯巴西收割进度与阿根廷天气变化。国内市场静 待拍卖消息；豆粕延续近强远弱格局，远月受美豆疲软、人民币升值等压制，短期低位震荡反复。整体看， 豆类市场多空交织，美豆聚焦南美收割与天气博弈，国内则受现货报价松动及政策预期影响，短期难破震 荡区间。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 ...