投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-23 一、 宏观数据速览 二、商品投资参考 综合 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with a short - term strong trend, a medium - term strong trend, and an intraday trend of oscillating on the strong side. The core logic is that liquidity recovery drives up the gold price [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, with a short - term oscillating trend, a medium - term strong trend, and an intraday trend of oscillating on the weak side. The core logic is that the macro - atmosphere cools down and short - term bulls' willingness to close positions rises [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price rose strongly. New York gold reached above $4900, approaching the $5000 mark, and Shanghai gold reached above 1100 yuan [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The direct trigger for the gold price increase is the sharp rise in geopolitical risks in "Greenland". Although the short - term market risk - aversion demand decreased, the gold price rebounded after a brief decline and broke through the previous high. It is mainly driven by short - term liquidity recovery. Technically, the long - short game at the $5000 mark should be continuously monitored [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price declined after the Asian session, and the domestic night session opened lower and moved higher, oscillating around the 100,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the precious metals rose strongly yesterday while the copper price was weak, showing insufficient willingness to follow the rise in the short term. At the industrial level, as the copper price declined, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly. On Thursday, the inventory stopped accumulating and slightly declined, and the monthly spread also rebounded. Technically, the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark should be monitored [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlooks for both coking coal (JM2605) and coke (J2605) are oscillatory, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger oscillation, but overall they are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [1]. - For coking coal, the supply is stable while demand is weak, and it will oscillate at a low level; for coke, the fundamental support is insufficient, and it will operate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Market Situation**: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,240.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. Overall, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, resulting in a situation of increasing supply and stable demand for coking coal [5]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals have not improved significantly. The expectations of winter storage replenishment and Spring Festival coal mine shutdowns have been factored in. Without policy intervention, coal prices may be suppressed by fundamentals and remain at a low level before the Spring Festival. Future upward momentum for coal prices may rely on policy drivers [5]. Coke (J) - **Market Situation**: The latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.03% [6]. - **Core Logic**: There is increased competition between coke enterprises and steel mills. Coke factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, but downstream acceptance is low. Currently, the coke market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak fundamentals. The increase in Mongolian coal imports weakens the cost support for coke, and concerns about hot metal production cuts due to steel mill accidents have led to a dull market atmosphere for coke, resulting in the futures market operating weakly at a low level [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：当前国内豆粕市场正处于强现实与弱预期激烈博弈阶段，短期走势震荡，中长期承压。强现实 体现为节前基本面支撑。下游饲料企业启动春节备货，提货积极性提升，推动豆粕进入加速去库通道。然 而，弱预期的阴云始终笼罩，构成价格上行主要压力。南美大豆整体丰产特征明显，巴西产量预计创纪录 新高，未来巴西货源报价面临回落压力，将拉低豆粕进口成本中枢。此外，市场普遍预期春节后随着油厂 期货研究报告 开机率恢复和南美新作大豆集中到港，国内豆粕供应将明显增长。短期受备货与高压榨博弈主导，豆 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests an overall "oscillating" stance for the medium - term view of the thermal coal spot market. The price increase of domestic thermal coal has narrowed this week and stabilized again. Due to warmer temperatures in coastal cities in mid - January, the demand for residential heating has declined. Although the temperature will drop significantly in late January, as of now, coal stocks at ports and downstream power plants are sufficient, resulting in a weak market atmosphere and low - level price operation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Inventory Data - As of January 15, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 699 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [4]. - As of January 15, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim region was 2705.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33.8 million tons, and 171.2 million tons higher than the same period in 2025 [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis - In mid - January, the temperature in coastal cities in China warmed up, with the maximum temperature in some areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang returning above 20°C, leading to a decline in residential heating demand [4]. - As of now, coal stocks at ports and downstream power plants are sufficient, and the coal market atmosphere is weak, with prices remaining low [4]. - This week, coal mines in the main production areas maintained normal production, and non - power terminal procurement was relatively stable. However, due to the decline in power coal demand, the shipping pressure of some coal mines increased, and the atmosphere at the mine end began to weaken [4].

热轧卷板周度数据（20260123） 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 150 200 250 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 期货研究报告 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 305.41 -2.95 304.51 0.90 302.74 2.67 高炉产能利用率（%） 85.51 0.03 85.26 0.25 84.55 0.96 表观需求量 309.96 -4.20 310.77 -0.81 302 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillating consolidation". The core reason is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation". Currently, treasury bond futures are in an oscillating consolidation market. In the short term, both the upside and downside spaces are limited. On one hand, there is still a problem of insufficient domestic demand, and the policy side clearly proposes to support technological innovation and promote the domestic consumption cycle, so the future monetary and credit environment is still expected to be loose. On the other hand, the macro - demand side has strong resilience, and the urgency of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is weak. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Weakening | Oscillating consolidation | The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weakening - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating - **Reference View**: Oscillating consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. Currently in an oscillating consolidation market, short - term upside and downside spaces are limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand and policy support for innovation and consumption, future monetary policy is expected to be loose. However, the macro - demand side has strong resilience, and the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak. So, short - term treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]

宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应过剩主导，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于短期美军航母绕过马六甲海峡，赶赴中东战场，伊朗发表强硬言论，中东地缘 风险再度增强。由于市场担忧全球原油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 23, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][36][48] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from January 16 to January 22, 2026, shows a continuous decline from - 106 to - 116 yuan/ton. The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) remain at 4.0, 0.0, 0.0 respectively during this period [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented, along with their price ratios and other data. For example, on January 22, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is - 1.74 yuan/ton [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber is - 645 yuan/ton. Inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are also given, with the LLDPE - PVC spread being 1953 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026. Basis data of these chemical commodities from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar is - 70 yuan/ton. Inter - variety spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are also provided, with the rebar/iron ore ratio being 3.98 on January 22, 2026. Basis data of these black metals from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented [20][21] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper is - 690 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026 [28] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 22, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (82.84) and the import profit/loss is (143.21) [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products and inter - variety spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are also provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 is - 167 yuan/ton on January 22, 2026 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 16 to January 22, 2026, are presented. Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of these stock index futures are also provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 is 21.95 on January 22, 2026 [48]