时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-10-10 品种晨会纪要 核心逻辑：美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。全球金融市场避险情绪大幅升温， 风险资产受到承压，宏观因子转弱。除了宏观情绪转弱外，当前国内甲醇开工率和周度产量依然维 持偏高水平，外部进口压力持续增大，年内进口峰值已经到来，由此导致节后港口甲醇库存居高不 下。虽然下游需求逐渐好转，不过烯烃盘面利润不佳，弱需现状仍待改善。在产业因子乏力的背景 下，预计本周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏弱 | 中期 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the investment rating of the industry in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of weak oscillation, a medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday outlook of decline. Overall, it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation of Crude Oil Futures 2511 - Short - term: Weak oscillation; Medium - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Decline; Overall view: Weak operation [1]. Core Logic - Macro factors have weakened as the US federal government shutdown due to the failure of the two parties to reach an agreement has led to a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment, pressuring risk assets [5]. - The supply pressure in the oil market has increased again as eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to maintain the production increase measure in November, increasing crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day [5]. - The "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has subsided as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, with Israel and Hamas signing the first - stage agreement of the "20 - point plan" [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract opened lower and ran weakly on Thursday, and the weak pattern continued at night. It is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅上涨。由于宏观经济需求端仍需要偏宽松的货币环境，中长期来 看未来货币政策偏向宽松，国债期货下方支撑较强。不过短期内股市风险偏好较强压制了购债需求， 且短期内全面降息的必要性不高，国债期货短期内上行动能有限。国庆之后，央行公开市场灵活管理 流动性，加量续作买断式逆回购，保持流动性相对平稳。总的来说，短期内国债期货上行动能与下行 空间均有限，以底部震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧仍在，沪胶偏弱运行 | | 合成胶 2511 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，合成胶偏弱运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。全球金融市场避险情 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 煤矿事故扰动，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：下游补库需求兑现后，国庆期间焦煤现货市场氛围转淡。供需方面，根据钢联统计， 截至 10 月 3 日当周 ...

策略参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 品种观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于美国政府停摆，美农报告暂停发布，美豆期价在缺乏报告数据的指引下，对国内市场的关 联影响有所减弱。国内现货采购谨慎，市场呈现"高库存、弱消耗"格局。下游看好中期价格修复空间，积 极布局远月合同锁定成本。由于大豆现货价格已逼近成本线，油厂压榨亏损，挺价意愿强烈。短期豆粕震 荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 < ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 商品情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，假期钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但整体维持相对高位， 考虑到钢市矛盾不断累积，利好效应在趋弱。与此同时，假期国内港口铁矿石到货偏高，而高矿价下 海外矿石发运积极，且节后内矿供应将恢复，供应压力增加。目前来看，节后商品情绪偏暖，且需求 韧性尚可 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data of Baocheng Futures on October 10, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, shows that the basis on October 9 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, the same as September 30 and 29, while on September 26 it was - 100.4 yuan/ton, and on September 25 it was - 95.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads were all 0.0 [2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 9 was 13.42 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 9 was - 765 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was - 35 yuan/ton [11] - Inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are shown. For example, on October 9, LLDPE - PVC was 2318 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 58.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are presented. For example, on October 9, rebar/iron ore was 3.92 [20] - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. For example, the basis of rebar on October 9 was 154.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market are provided. For example, the basis of copper on October 9 was - 750 yuan/ton [30] - **London Market**: On October 9, 2025, LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (24.90) [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 9 was - 15 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 29 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from September 25 to October 9, 2025, are shown. For example, on October 9, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.85 [41] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: Basis data from September 25 to October 9, 2025, for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 9 was 20.28 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month minus the current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 8.8 [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oversold rebound, and a slight increase on Thursday. The price is expected to temporarily stabilize and fluctuate due to the potential impact of Typhoon "Maidumi" on natural rubber planting areas during the National Day holiday [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and a significant decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weak downward movement, and a slight decline on Thursday. It is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend due to factors such as the US government shutdown, OPEC+ production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, while the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18%. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses changed [9]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises was slightly adjusted. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points [9]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% from July 2025 and a 35% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.51%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.80%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.43%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.8727 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 59,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 32,400 tons [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. As of September 30, 2025, the futures disk profit of methanol to olefin was - 132 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 26, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2681 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 61,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 333,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 474,900 tons. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 320,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 116,900 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 429,000 barrels/day [14]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.715 million barrels and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 763,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.0 percentage point, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.7 percentage points [14]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decline of 15.65%. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,480 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,903 contracts and a slight increase of 162 contracts from the August average, an increase of 0.08% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +350 yuan/ton | 15,415 yuan/ton | +385 yuan/ton | - 765 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,250 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,290 yuan/ton | - 38 yuan/ton | - 40 yuan/ton | +21 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 451.1 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | 471.0 yuan/barrel | - 8.7 yuan/barrel | - 19.9 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts such as rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts such as methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][37][41] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose to $10,800, hitting a new high this year with a holiday increase of about 3%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE copper opened and closed higher, with the open interest continuously rising. The strong upward movement was mainly due to three factors: supply shortage (dual squeeze from the mine and smelting ends), macro and financial attributes (interest - rate cut expectations and increased capital attention), and demand resilience (traditional peak season and long - term trends). In the short term, copper prices broke through and moved up, with strong upward momentum. Technically, attention should be paid to the high - point pressure in May 2024 [5]. - **Aluminum**: During the National Day holiday, LME aluminum rose by about 3%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE aluminum opened and closed higher, breaking through the 21,000 - yuan mark, with the open interest continuously rising. The rise in aluminum prices was largely affected by the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector, driven by the sharp increase in copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 47,000 tons during the National Day holiday, and downstream enterprises showed strong wait - and - see sentiment after the holiday. Technically, attention should be paid to the high - point pressure in mid - September [6]. - **Nickel**: During the National Day holiday, LME nickel rose by about 1.2%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE nickel continued to increase positions and move up, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. The rise in nickel prices was largely affected by the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector, driven by the sharp increase in copper prices. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continued to suppress nickel prices, but in the short term, the slowdown of nickel ore inventory accumulation at ports and the depletion of SHFE nickel inventory provided support for nickel prices. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 - yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that copper prices are resetting into a new range, with a lower limit of $10,000 per ton and an upper limit of $11,000 per ton. Supply structural constraints, strategic demand (such as power grids, AI, and national defense), and possible inventory behavior support the bottom, but high prices may trigger the entry of scrap copper into the market and aluminum substitution, thus limiting the upside. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,500 per ton and maintained the 2027 forecast at $10,750 per ton. Citi's forecast for copper prices is more aggressive, expecting copper prices to soar to $11,000 per ton within 0 - 3 months and average $12,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026. On October 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 167,900 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from September 29 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On October 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 634,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [10]. - **Nickel**: The mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market is the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is + 2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel is + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel is + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans is + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,390 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded - area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, and nickel ore port inventory [37][41][43].