◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面表现不佳，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂开始复产，螺纹产量持续增加，且存有增量空间，低供应 格局待变，利好效应趋弱，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现依然偏弱，高频需求指标继 续位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未改善，后续将延续季节性弱势，继而承压钢价。总之，螺纹 钢供应在回升，而 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2025-12-15 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 24888 | 25660 | 23288 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M0:同比 | % | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.0 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report - **Report Date**: January 5, 2026 - **Research Focus**: Copper and aluminum futures market analysis 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: After the holiday, copper prices showed little fluctuation. Post - holiday, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 mark. In December, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were implemented, market liquidity recovered, and capital risk appetite was high. Macro factors drove copper prices up, while the industry followed passively, with the basis and monthly spreads showing weak performance. Although the short - term upward momentum of copper prices is strong, they are at a historical high. The domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) contradicts the strong macro expectations. Short - term futures prices may need to consolidate through fluctuations and wait for the industry to catch up [5]. - **Aluminum**: With the strong performance of copper prices, aluminum prices are making up for lost ground. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. In December, aluminum prices broke through the 22,000 mark and approached 23,000, mainly benefiting from the sector effect brought by the continuous rise of copper prices and the increasing expectation of aluminum replacing copper in home appliances. Before the holiday, the copper - aluminum ratio declined from a high level, and the short - term make - up increase of aluminum prices was obvious. At the industrial level, the basis and monthly spreads remained weak, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. Although the short - term upward momentum of aluminum prices is limited, as long as copper prices remain strong, aluminum prices may continue to make up for lost ground [6]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Macro Factors - During the double - holiday period last week, both domestic and foreign funds had a strong willingness to take profits, causing copper prices to decline from a high level. Additionally, the continuous rise of the US dollar index put pressure on copper prices [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - No specific analysis of quantity and price trends is provided other than the graphical data presentation, including copper futures price trends, copper Shanghai - London ratio, and other relevant indicators [13][17][18]. 3.2.2 Copper Mine Shortage - On January 2, 2026, a strike began at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile, owned 70% by Capstone Copper and 30% by Mitsubishi Materials. About half of the workers participated in the strike. The mine is expected to produce 29,000 - 32,000 tons of copper in 2025. During the strike, production will drop to 30% of the normal level, potentially tightening the global copper supply. Copper prices soared 42% in 2025, and this event may put upward pressure on copper prices in early 2026 [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 31, 2025, the Mysteel social inventory of electrolytic copper was 247,100 tons, a weekly increase of 44,900 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 645,500 tons, a weekly increase of 5,500 tons. The continuous rise of short - term copper prices significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industry - SMM estimated that the total output of the copper rod industry in December would decline by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Similar to copper, no in - depth analysis of quantity and price trends is provided other than graphical data, including aluminum price trends, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio, and other relevant indicators [33][41][34]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 31, 2025, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.0207 million tons, a decrease of 59,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.2107 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Before the holiday, alumina prices rebounded significantly. It is believed that the macro - economic recovery drove its rebound from a low level. Its price elasticity is greater than that of electrolytic aluminum, which may lead to a decline in the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants from a high level [43][44]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On December 29, 2025, the Mysteel social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 638,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week. On December 31, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 515,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. Last week, the overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories showed a divergence. The low - level depletion of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory provided support for aluminum prices [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industry - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline with fluctuations. As aluminum prices rose to the 23,000 level, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices, and the operating rate may continue to decline. On January 1, 2026, the aluminum rod inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [51][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: The conclusion is consistent with the core view, emphasizing the impact of macro factors on copper prices, the contradiction between industrial pressure and macro expectations, and the need to focus on the long - short game at the 100,000 mark [56]. - **Aluminum**: The conclusion is also in line with the core view, highlighting the make - up increase of aluminum prices due to the strong performance of copper prices, the weak industrial basis and monthly spreads, and the need to focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average [56].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the New Year's Day holiday, long - position funds took profits, causing the overall precious metals to decline from their highs. During the domestic holiday, overseas gold prices fluctuated little, with New York gold oscillating below $4400. On January 3rd, the US military launched an air strike on Venezuela and captured its president, which will heat up the market's risk - aversion sentiment and lead to a higher opening of gold prices. After the weekend fermentation, beware of a higher - opening and lower - moving trend on Monday. If the situation escalates or triggers a major - power game, gold prices will get medium - term support. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4400 mark of New York gold [5][22] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price [9][11] 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | January 2nd | December 26th | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,341.90 | $4,562.00 | - 4.82% | | COMEX Silver | $72.27 | $79.68 | - 9.30% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | N/A | $1,016.30 | N/A | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | N/A | $18,319.00 | N/A | | US Dollar Index | 98.46 | 98.03 | + 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 6.97 | 7.00 | - 0.49% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.94 | 1.91 | + 0.03 | | S&P 500 | 6,858.47 | 6,929.94 | - 1.03% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $57.33 | $56.93 | + 0.70% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 60.08 | 57.26 | + 4.93% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | N/A | 55.48 | N/A | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,065.13 | 1,071.13 | - 6.00 | | iShare Gold ETF | 493.78 | 492.64 | + 1.14 | [10] 2. Risk - Aversion Sentiment Boosts Gold Prices - Before the New Year's Day holiday, due to strong profit - taking willingness of funds, precious metals collectively declined from their highs. During the domestic holiday, overseas fluctuations were small. On January 3rd, the US military's air strike on Venezuela and the capture of its president heated up the market's risk - aversion sentiment. If the conflict is strictly confined between the US and Venezuela, the "boot - landing" effect may dominate, leading to a short - term rise and then fall of gold prices. If it triggers regional turmoil or major - power confrontation, the safe - haven demand will continue [12] - Last week, the US stock market also showed a trend of rising and then falling before the holiday, with strong profit - taking willingness of funds. However, from the VIX index, the overall market atmosphere was good [14] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 2nd, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1558.91 tons, a decrease of 4.86 tons from the previous week. As gold prices declined from their highs last week, the holdings of gold ETFs also slightly decreased [16] - Last week, precious metals declined collectively, with silver falling nearly 10% and gold falling nearly 5%. The gold - silver ratio showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. Currently, the gold - silver ratio is below 60, breaking through the low since 2021, which reflects to a certain extent that the short - term increase of silver is relatively large [19] 4. Conclusion - Repeats the core view that the US military's actions in Venezuela will heat up risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a higher opening of gold prices. Short - term beware of a higher - opening and lower - moving trend, and if the situation escalates, gold prices will get medium - term support. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4400 mark of New York gold [22]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.95%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，利多因素发酵支撑矿价高位运行，但供应居高不下，而需求改善受 限，基本面表现偏弱，上行驱动不强，预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局不一，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 0.74%日跌幅 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：节前焦煤现货暂稳运行，焦企利润无明显改善，生产积极性一般。 下游钢厂年末减产过后，进入新一年度将开始逐渐复产，铁水产量回升的 速度和幅度或是焦炭期货短期走向的重要影响因素。整体来看，下游复产 和冬储或给焦炭价格带来一定支撑，预计主力合约下跌存一定阻力，但能 否向上反弹仍需关注需求改善情况以及政策端有无新增利好。 焦煤：进入新一年度，此前因完成年度生产目标而停产、减产的煤矿将陆 续复产，焦煤产量或边际回升，叠加进口量维持高位，焦煤供应压力依然 存在。不过，元旦过后，下游钢厂也存有复产预期，预计将带动上游焦 煤、焦炭等原材料需求好转。整体来看，1 月焦煤预计将迎来供需两增局 面，上下游复产节奏或是市场短期博弈焦点，现阶段焦煤仍缺乏向上持续 性驱动，价格或维持低位震荡运行，密切关注煤炭产业政策。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话： ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: After the holiday, SHFE copper opened higher and moved up, with the open interest rising continuously. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. The spot discount turned into a premium, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to rise. The copper price stood above the 100,000 yuan mark again, with obvious capital inflows and strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [6]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price opened higher and moved up in the morning, with a significant increase in open interest and an intraday increase of more than 3%. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. High aluminum prices inhibited downstream consumption, and the industry followed passively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. The recent strong performance of the aluminum price was partly due to the loose macro - environment and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. When copper was strong, the copper - aluminum ratio began to decline from a high level before the holiday. In the short term, the aluminum price approached the 24,000 yuan mark, the high levels in 2021 and 2022, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rose first and then fell, and then the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 134,000 yuan, with the open interest rising continuously during the day. Since late December, the nickel price has rebounded from the 110,000 yuan mark to the 130,000 yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decline in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the nickel price increased with rising open interest, reversing the downward trend. Technically, SHFE nickel has reached the rebound high in March 2025, with certain technical pressure and intensified long - short competition [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 5, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared with the 31st [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared with the 25th [10]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 133,700 - 142,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 138,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 7,000 - 7,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: There are charts on nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 原油 | 专题报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日 原油 专业研究·创造价值 地缘诡谲暗涌 原油溢价仍存 摘 要 2026 年全球原油市场正处于供需基本面与地缘政治风险的深 度博弈期。国际能源署（IEA）预测，全年原油市场日均过剩量将 达 380-409 万桶，占全球需求的 4%，供应过剩格局成为市场运行 主基调。然而，中东、南美、俄乌三大关键区域的地缘局势动荡持 续发酵，形成对供应端的潜在冲击，与供需基本面形成反向拉扯。 中东地区，伊朗社会危机与以伊影子战争升级、红海航运通道安全 风险上升，叠加海湾国家转型期的政策不确定性，构成原油供应的 核心地缘风险点；南美地区，委内瑞拉在美制裁高压下开启对美石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure of methanol is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [3]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support, and the supply in Iran, the main import source, is facing serious interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [4][47] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Methanol Spot Price Rose Slightly and the Basis was Slightly at a Premium - In the week of December 31, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week - on - week; in South China, it was 2,192 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton week - on - week; in North China, it was 2,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Taking the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China as the spot reference price and the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract as the futures reference price, the basis was slightly at a premium, with a premium of 6 yuan/ton as of the week of December 31, 2025 [9] 3.1.2 Import Expectation Declined and Methanol Stabilized and Rebounded - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [18] 3.2 Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased and Weekly Output Slightly Increased - In December 2025, the domestic methanol market maintained a pattern of loose supply, with high operating rates of enterprise equipment and high - level weekly output. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol turned negative and the loss continued to expand, the domestic supply still increased. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, up 0.21% week - on - week, 2.57% month - on - month, and 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly output of methanol was 2.0722 million tons, up 16,200 tons week - on - week, 48,600 tons month - on - month, and 232,100 tons compared with 1.8401 million tons in the same period last year [20] 3.2.2 Delayed Unloading of Overseas Methanol at Ports and Increased Import Pressure - Affected by sanctions, weather, and special port fees, the unloading progress of imported methanol in October 2025 was lower than expected, and a large amount of goods were postponed to November for unloading. Iran's production did not significantly decrease due to high temperature and the "staggered peak maintenance" strategy. Some Iranian goods changed their routes to Shandong, which affected the port distribution structure but did not significantly reduce the total import volume. In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, down 195,000 tons month - on - month but up 332,500 tons (30.64%) compared with the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 12.6969 million tons, up 321,600 tons (2.60%) compared with the same period last year. The high import volume in November increased the inventory pressure in coastal areas and put downward pressure on methanol prices in the fourth quarter [23][24] 3.2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Improved and Olefin Profit Slightly Rebounded - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 31.70%, up 0.08% week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, down 0.41% week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 77.61%, up 1.89% week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 58.12%, down 1.00% week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.32%, down 0.83 percentage points week - on - week and 1.44% month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the futures profit of methanol to olefin was - 300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 304 yuan/ton month - on - month [26] 3.2.4 Port Inventory Increased Significantly and Inland Inventory Increased Slightly - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, up 113,200 tons week - on - week, down 35,900 tons month - on - month, and up 312,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, up 18,600 tons week - on - week, up 49,000 tons month - on - month, and up 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the same period last year [34] 3.2.5 The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Widened - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2,120 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,370 yuan/ton. With the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract at 2,161 yuan/ton on December 26, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 41 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about 1.93%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2,022 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,273 yuan/ton, with a profit of 139 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 6.87%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 1,988 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,238 yuan/ton, with a profit of 173 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 8.70% [39][40] 3.3 Conclusion - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival. Iran, the main import source, is facing serious supply interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, enhancing the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is currently being pulled by intermittent geopolitical risks and a weak supply - demand structure. In the short term, geopolitical risks may dominate, and it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic that suppresses oil prices, and the concern of global supply surplus still exists [5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 57.72 US dollars per barrel (equivalent to 405.7 RMB per barrel), with a week - on - week decrease of 3.2 US dollars per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2602, closed at 432.2 RMB per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.5 RMB per barrel. The basis was 26.5 RMB per barrel, and the degree of contango decreased slightly [8]. - **Geopolitical risks and price trends**: In the last week before the holiday, as geopolitical risks were gradually digested by the market, the crude oil premium began to be reversed. The weak supply - demand expectation in the oil market dominated, causing the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures to show a volatile downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract was weak, with a cumulative decline of 2.17% to 432.2 RMB per barrel during the week [11]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Remain in an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slows Down - **OPEC+ production increase**: Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have launched a phased production increase policy. From April to September, the cumulative production increase exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day. In the fourth quarter, the production increase continued. In November, it was decided to continue the production increase plan in December. However, to cope with the possible seasonal off - peak demand in the first quarter of 2026, production increase will be suspended from January 2026 for three months. In November 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 1.711 million barrels per day [22][23][24]. - **Non - OPEC oil - producing countries**: Non - OPEC+ countries' capacity expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.827 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.254 million barrels per day [42]. - **Northern Hemisphere demand**: The United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. From December to February is the peak season for heating oil consumption. Entering December, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the peak season, and the inventory will change from accumulation to depletion. However, the EIA and IEA have both lowered their oil price forecasts and increased their forecasts for oil supply growth, while lowering their forecasts for demand growth [44][45][46]. - **US inventory and refinery operation rate**: As of the week ending December 26, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.934 million barrels week - on - week to 422.9 million barrels, and the refinery operation rate was 94.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [48]. - **China's crude oil imports**: In November 2025, China's crude oil imports were 50.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.88%. The daily average import volume reached 12.38 million barrels, the highest level since August 2023. In 2026, China's crude oil production is expected to increase by 1.2% - 1.5%, demand is expected to reach 758 million tons, and imports are expected to reach 530 million tons [57][58]. 3.3 South American Geopolitical Turmoil Continues to Escalate, and Crude Oil Premium Increases - **Short - term impact**: In December 2025, the South American geopolitical situation heated up. The US military's actions against Venezuela triggered market concerns, leading to a short - term increase in the risk premium of international crude oil futures prices. However, this increase was mainly due to market sentiment rather than a substantial supply interruption [65]. - **Long - term impact**: In the long - term, the actual supply capacity of Venezuela is limited, and the global crude oil market is facing a structural supply - demand imbalance. The South American geopolitical risk is difficult to reverse the overall weak pattern of oil prices. After the initial sharp fluctuations, oil prices are expected to return to being dominated by fundamentals [66][67][69]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - As of December 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 54,896 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 3,537 contracts and a significant decrease of 9,975 contracts from the November average. As of December 23, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts and a significant decrease of 56,093 contracts from the November average [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - During the New Year's Day holiday, the US military's actions in Venezuela and the threat from President Trump may lead to an increase in oil prices after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term factor suppressing oil prices. In the short term, domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and strong trend [76].