1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which had previously risen due to rumors of increased export expectations, has seen a market sentiment decline as actual export demand has not significantly improved. The report predicts that the UR contract will trend sideways today [4]. - The main factors influencing the market are the strong international urea prices and weak domestic demand, with the key risk being changes in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating downward. The current daily production and operating rate remain high, and inventory is at a high level overall. Industrial demand, such as for compound fertilizers and melamine, is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of urea in China exceeds demand, export profits have declined but remain strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 77, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall supply in China exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will trend sideways today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international prices; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (+20), Shandong spot is 1830 (+20), Henan spot is 1840 (unchanged), and FOB China is 3102 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 01 contract is 1753 (+16), the 05 contract is 1789 (+10), and the 09 contract is 1702 (-5). The basis of the UR01 contract is 77 (+4) [6]. - **Inventory**: Warehouse receipts are 6473 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 0.896 million tons (unchanged), and UR port inventory is 0.541 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-29燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：由于东西方套利经济不可行，预计9月来自西方的套利货流入量将减少，短期内将提振低硫燃料油 基本面；部分交易商担忧秋季炼厂检修季来临前原料需求的匮乏，加之夏季结束后发电需求逐步减弱，除非年 末假期前加油活动回升，否则可能加剧新加坡地区的供应过剩局面；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油392.38美元/吨，基差为69元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为492.5美元/吨，基差为114元 /吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油8月27日当周库存为2188.9万桶，减少203万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view suggests that the Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) are expected to oscillate and weaken. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc decline in an oscillatory manner, with increased trading volume and more short - position increases. Technically, the price fell below the moving - average system, losing support, and the short - term indicators show a bearish sign [2][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons [2]. 3.2 Zinc Basis - The spot price was 22160, and the basis was - 10, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Zinc Inventory - On August 28, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2025 tons to 58000 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 176 tons to 36037 tons [2]. 3.4 Zinc Futures Market Quotes on August 28 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices, trading volumes, and open interests varied. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement price was 22350, the opening price was 22210, the closing price was 22170, the trading volume was 156406 lots, and the open interest increased by 6801 lots [3]. 3.5 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on August 28 - Prices of various zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, etc., declined. For instance, the price of zinc ingot in Shanghai was 22160 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton [4]. 3.6 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 18 - 28, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 11.50 million tons on August 18 to 12.98 million tons on August 28 [5]. 3.7 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on August 28 - Warehouse receipts in different regions had different changes. For example, in Shanghai, the total warehouse receipts increased by 50 tons; in Guangdong, they increased by 101 tons; in Tianjin, they decreased by 327 tons, with a total of 36037 tons and a net decrease of 176 tons [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on August 28 - LME zinc inventory in major global warehouses decreased. For example, in Singapore, the inventory decreased from 60025 tons to 58000 tons, and in Hong Kong, it decreased from 59925 tons to 57900 tons [7]. 3.9 National Zinc Concentrate Price on August 28 - The price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was 16870 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.10 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on August 28 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 140 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingot from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22400 yuan/ton [13]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459700 tons, the actual production was 471800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470300 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on August 28 - Processing fees varied by region. For example, in China, for 50% grade zinc concentrate, the average processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton; for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate, the average processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, up 45 dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.13 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 28 - For the zn2510 contract, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long - position holdings, the top three were CITIC Futures, Jianxin Futures, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short - position holdings, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [18].

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-29 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1060元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1174元/吨，基差为-114元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6256.60万重量箱，较前一周减少1.64%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： 1、地产终 ...

纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1205元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1311元/吨，基差为-106元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.75万吨，较前一周减少2.27%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、23年以来，纯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 20730 and a basis of - 20, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory situation is neutral as the上期所 aluminum inventory decreased by 8047 tons to 124605 tons last week. The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bulls and bears are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of aluminum has multiple aspects: fundamental analysis is neutral; basis analysis is neutral; inventory analysis is neutral; market trend analysis is bullish; main position analysis is bullish; and the expected price movement is oscillating due to mixed factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多 factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; and there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - **利空 factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot prices**: In Shanghai, the price was 70770 with a decline of 375; in Nanchu, it was 70690 with a decline of 450; and the Yangtze River price was 70870 with a decline of 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it was 15 million tons [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but individual factors are rated as follows: fundamental analysis is neutral [3]; basis analysis is bullish [3]; inventory analysis is bearish [3]; market trend analysis is neutral [3]; and main position analysis is bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure and refining profit strengthened on August 27 due to stable downstream marine fuel demand, but there are concerns about raw material demand shortage before the autumn refinery maintenance season and weakening power generation demand after summer, which may exacerbate regional supply surplus unless refueling activities pick up before year - end holidays. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month. Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level, the domestic market was weak, and the downstream ship refueling market was weak, suppressing prices. In the short term, fuel oil will operate at a low level. The FU2510 will operate in the range of 2810 - 2850, and the LU2511 will operate in the range of 3490 - 3530 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The FU2510 is expected to operate in the range of 2810 - 2850, and the LU2511 in the range of 3490 - 3530. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure and refining profit strengthened on August 27, but there are supply - related concerns. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month. Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level, and the domestic market was weak [3] 2. Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors: potential escalation of sanctions against Russia [4] - Bearish factors: the optimism of the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4] - Market drivers: the supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamental: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market strengthened on August 27 due to downstream demand, but there are concerns about supply surplus. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month; neutral [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 396.54 dollars/ton with a basis of 101 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is 495.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 145 yuan/ton, spot premium over futures; bullish [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 20 was 2391.9 million barrels, an increase of 128 million barrels; bearish [3] - Market trend: prices are above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat; neutral [3] - Main position: high - sulfur main position is short, changing from long to short; low - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; bearish [3] 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, but shows the price changes of the FU and LU main contracts. The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2890 to 2829, a decrease of 61 or 2.11%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3537 to 3489, a decrease of 48 or 1.36%. The FU basis increased from 56 to 101, an increase of 45 or 80.58%. The LU basis increased from 104 to 145, an increase of 42 or 40.12% [5] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 11 to August 20 shows fluctuations, with an inventory of 2391.9 million barrels in the week of August 20, an increase of 128 million barrels compared to the previous period [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. July's import volume was 13,845 tons, and next month's predicted import is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand - last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8]. - Cost - the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [9]. - Overall situation - due to capacity mismatch, supply is stronger than demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: last week's production decreased week - on - week but was higher than the historical average. July's production and import volume are predicted to increase next month. - Demand: last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate enterprises decreased, while that of ternary material enterprises increased. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. - Cost: the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average. - Expected range: lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [8][9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: - Lithium ore prices: the price of 6% lithium spodumene is $920/ton, flat week - on - week; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate is 1,970 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. - Lithium salt prices: the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,600 yuan/ton, a 0.12% week - on - week decrease; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,300 yuan/ton, a 0.13% week - on - week decrease. - Other prices: the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 56,400 yuan/ton, a 1.08% week - on - week increase [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: - Lithium ore: the monthly production of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the import volume is also expected to increase significantly. - Lithium carbonate: the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The import volume decreased month - on - month. - Lithium hydroxide: the weekly production of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The export volume increased month - on - month [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: - Lithium battery: the monthly output of lithium batteries increased month - on - month, and the demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is expected to increase. - New energy vehicles: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: the price of lithium ore has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Production: the production of domestic lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica has increased year - on - year. - Import: the import volume of lithium ore has increased year - on - year, mainly from Australia. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance has been in a state of shortage in recent years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased year - on - year, mainly from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials. - Import: the import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased month - on - month, mainly from Chile. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly from smelting and causticizing. - Export: the export volume of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly to overseas markets. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium hydroxide supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Lithium spodumene: the production cost of lithium spodumene has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Lithium mica: the production cost of lithium mica is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Lithium carbonate import: the import profit of lithium carbonate has decreased week - on - week. - Other aspects: the cost and profit of other lithium compounds, such as lithium hydroxide and recycled lithium carbonate, also show different trends [46]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the inventory of downstream enterprises increasing. - Lithium hydroxide: the inventory of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: the price of lithium batteries has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Output: the monthly output of lithium batteries has increased year - on - year, mainly for power batteries and energy - storage batteries. - Demand: the demand for lithium batteries is expected to increase in the future, driven by the development of new energy vehicles and energy - storage industries [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: the price of ternary precursors has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary precursors has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary precursor supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: the price of ternary materials has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary materials has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary material supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [69]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price: the price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of phosphoric acid iron has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. The production cost of phosphoric acid iron lithium is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic phosphoric acid iron/phosphoric acid iron lithium supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production and sales: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased. - Retail - wholesale ratio: the retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year. - Inventory: the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have increased year - on - year [80].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is affected by the expected high - yield, technical adjustment, and factors such as China - US tariff negotiations and weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by factors like import volume, inventory, and price differentials. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080, and the soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is affected by the relative positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, showing a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend. The soybean meal market will return to the range - oscillating pattern due to factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No specific content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on factors such as soybean growth and harvest in the US, import volume of soybeans, and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and strengthening. The uncertain factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations lead to the return of the soybean meal market to the range - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High import volume of domestic soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans** - **Positive Factors**: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: Continuous expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal** - Spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 75, showing a discount to futures [8]. - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105330 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans** - Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 265, showing a premium to futures [10]. - Oil - mill soybean inventory is 682530 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main players decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main players increased, and the capital inflow was positive [10]. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and other indicators of global soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio also varied, ranging from 17.69% in 2015 to 23.05% in 2018 [31]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, and other indicators of domestic soybeans also showed fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio ranged from 18.41% in 2016 to 23.79% in 2020 [32]. Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress - **Argentina (2023/24)**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2023/24 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [33]. - **US (2024)**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US in 2024 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the sowing progress reached 100% on June 30, and the harvesting progress reached 96% on October 13 [34][37]. - **Brazil (2024/25)**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Brazil in 2024/25 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the planting progress reached 98.5% on January 5, and the harvesting progress reached 97.7% on May 4 [38][39]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From February to August 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports showed changes in indicators such as harvest area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans. For example, the harvest area decreased from 8610 in February to 8090 in August [41]. Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [42]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans reached a high level in August and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a short - term decrease in stocking demand [47]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit of imported soybeans in the futures market worsened [51]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then declined, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit recently declined [53][55][57][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening in the short - term. It is predicted that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3492 [7][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, positive basis, inventory trends (social and port inventories decreasing), and net long positions of the main contract with a reduction in long positions. Negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and a strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [7][8][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The processing loss of asphalt increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price in Shandong is 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 49 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1,292,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The in - factory inventory is 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports is 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - factory inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closes below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Contract Positions**: The main contract has a net long position, with a reduction in long positions [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt at ports from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [48][50]. - **Price of Marey Crude Oil and Monthly Production of Venezuelan Crude Oil**: The report presents the historical trends of the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Production of Local Refinery Asphalt**: The report shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of the total, social, and in - factory exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [62][63][64]. - **Social and In - Factory Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of social and in - factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report presents the historical trend of the in - factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [93][94][96][97][99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104][105].