1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that refineries have reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3005 - 3053 for the 2601 contract [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a 18.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. The capacity utilization rate is 31.8792%, a 1.44 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The sample enterprise output is 532,000 tons, a 4.31% decrease month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 745,000 tons, a 22.53% increase month - on - month. Demand - side: The开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt are generally lower than the historical average, while the开工 rates of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membranes are higher. Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 576.02 yuan/ton, a 4.10% increase month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong local refineries is 799.3871 yuan/ton, a 34.46% increase month - on - month. The overall fundamentals are bearish [8]. - **Basis**: On November 13, the spot price in Shandong was 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 19 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 897,000 tons, a 4.26% decrease month - on - month; the in - factory inventory is 641,000 tons, a 6.42% decrease month - on - month; and the port - diluted asphalt inventory is 160,000 tons, a 20.00% decrease month - on - month. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking state, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: Considering refinery production cuts, low demand, stable inventory, and weakening crude oil, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3005 - 3053 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract prices, basis, inventory, and production data show different degrees of decline. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.11% to 3029 yuan/ton, the social inventory decreased by 4.27% to 89.7 million tons, and the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.32% to 53.2 million tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps in analyzing the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][20]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which is important for refineries to make production decisions [42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the supply - side shipment situation [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the supply - side inventory status [47]. - **Production Volume**: The weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply - side production situation [50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which are important factors affecting asphalt production [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, showing the supply - side production capacity of local refineries [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the supply - side production efficiency [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, showing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical data of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the inventory situation in the futures market [66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the overall inventory status [70]. - **In - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical in - factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, showing the inventory management efficiency of refineries [73]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the international trade situation of asphalt [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented, showing the demand - side situation of related products [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [85]. - **Downstream Demand**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the downstream demand situation [88][89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, showing the demand - side equipment utilization [93][95]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the demand - side production activity [97][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the downstream production activity [102][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, showing the overall supply - demand relationship [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight EIA inventory exceeded expectations, continuing to suppress oil prices. However, there was destocking in downstream and refined oil, which partially stabilized prices. The market showed signs of stabilization after a significant decline. The IEA monthly report increased concerns about crude oil supply - demand surplus. Short - term negatives have been fully exposed. In the short term, oil prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investment should be on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: More Fed policymakers are cautious about further easing due to inflation concerns and relatively stable labor market after two interest rate cuts this year, reducing the probability of a December rate cut to below 50%. Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill to end the 43 - day federal government shutdown. The IEA warns of a large - scale oil market surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year [3]. - **Basis**: On November 13, with Oman crude oil at $64 per barrel and Qatar Marine crude at $63.38 per barrel, the basis was 29.90 yuan/barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending November 7. EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels (expected 1.96 million). Cushing area inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 3.464 million barrels as of November 13 [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was below the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main positions were long and increasing; as of November 4, Brent crude oil main positions were long and decreasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices will stabilize and fluctuate. SC2512 will trade between 450 - 460, and long - term investment should be on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **IEA Outlook**: The IEA sees "considerable downside risks" in Russia's crude oil production but maintains its estimate of 9.3 million barrels per day for this quarter and next year until more details are available [5]. - **Fed Policy**: More Fed policymakers are cautious about further easing, reducing the market - perceived probability of a December rate cut to below 50% [3][5]. - **EIA Report**: Commercial crude inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, with an expected increase of 1.96 million barrels. Cushing crude inventory decreased by 34,600 barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels. Heating oil inventory increased by 55,000 barrels, refined oil inventory decreased by 637,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 945,000 barrels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia; OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1 next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Easing Middle - East situation; consistent expectations of crude oil surplus from institutions [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term negatives have been exhausted, and geopolitical positives are not obvious. There is a long - term risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settled at $63.01 (up $0.30, 0.48%); WTI at $58.69 (up $0.20, 0.34%); SC at 454.4 (down 12.2, - 2.61%); Oman at $63.56 (down $1.43, - 2.20%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd at $62.34 (down $0.20, - 0.32%); WTI at $58.69 (up $0.20, 0.34%); Oman at $64.00 (down $2.30, - 3.47%); Shengli at $59.33 (down $2.41, - 3.90%); Dubai at $63.88 (down $2.49, - 3.75%) [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels to 45.1739 million barrels in the week ending November 7. EIA inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels to 42.7581 million barrels in the same week [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 4, the net long position was 152,231, a decrease of 19,336 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the LLDPE and PP markets, suggesting that both are expected to have a volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, macro - economic conditions, and oil price fluctuations [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, some restrictions were lifted, and OPEC + announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films remains strong, but stocking for other films is ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6850 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 32, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, oil price fluctuations, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in Sino - US talks. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in Q4 [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and OPEC +'s decision affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is recovering. The current PP delivery spot price is 6470 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 62 million tons (+2), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, oil price fluctuations, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors are the same as those for LLDPE, while bearish factors also include weak demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in Q4 [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6850 (+10), the 01 contract price is 6818 (+30), the basis is 32 (-20), and the import price difference is - 243 (+31). The warehouse receipt is 12067 (0), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), and social inventory is 50 million tons (-10) [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6470 (0), the 01 contract price is 6480 (+20), the basis is - 10 (-20), and the import price difference is - 213 (+19). The warehouse receipt is 14642 (0), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 62 million tons (+2), and social inventory is 32.4 million tons (-0.9) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption have shown various trends. For example, in 2024, capacity was 3584.5, production was 2773.8, net imports were 1360.32, and the import dependence was 32.9%. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption also changed. In 2024, capacity was 4418.5, production was 3425, net imports were 360, and the import dependence was 9.5%. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the prices of gold and silver to decline. The gold price is expected to fluctuate, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The premiums of Shanghai gold and silver have changed, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, which supported the precious metal prices. However, factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns have improved, weakening the support for precious metal prices [10][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the gold price to decline. The US three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 5.18 basis points to 4.121%, the US dollar index fell 0.30% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.0974. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.93% to $4174.5 per ounce. The basis was - 3.05, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price reached a record high and then declined significantly. The COMEX silver futures fell 2.30% to $52.23 per ounce. The basis was - 20, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 954 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: Attention should be paid to China's series of economic data, intensive speeches by ECB and Fed officials, and the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP. The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in the precious metal prices, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The factors affecting the gold price include the shift from inflation expectation to economic recession expectation after Trump took office, but the support from factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns has weakened [4][10]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price mainly follows the gold price, and factors such as tariff concerns have a greater impact on the silver price [6][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.66% to 169,485, the short - position volume decreased by 3.86% to 67,373, and the net long position increased by 3.89% to 102,112 [32]. - **Silver**: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 2.72% to 398,314, the short - position volume increased by 11.04% to 294,341, and the net long position decreased by 15.26% to 103,973 [33]. 5. Today's Concerns - 08:05: Speech by ECB Governing Council member Vujčić - 09:30: Release of the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities by the National Bureau of Statistics - 10:00: Release of China's industrial added value above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, urban fixed - asset investment, and national real - estate development investment from January to October, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate in October. A press conference on the national economic operation will be held by the State Council Information Office - 15:05: Speeches by ECB Governing Council members Escriva and Vujčić at the Singapore Fintech Festival - 18:00: Release of the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP - 18:30: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Elderson in Frankfurt - 21:30 (possibly): Release of US retail sales in October - 22:20: Speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter in 2027) - 23:00: Speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane - 23:05: Speech by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid - Next day 03:30: Participation in a fireside chat by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan - Next day 04:20: Participation in a dialogue by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年11月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格回落，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费维稳，镍铁价格回落，成本线向下再有松动， 不锈钢库存小幅回升。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13462.5，基差987.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：71197，-239，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、结论：不锈钢2601：震荡偏弱承压，向下考验前期低位支撑。 多空因素 影响因素总结 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘承压向下，跌破15000一线。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，招标价 格坚挺，海运费维稳。镍铁价格继续回落，成本线松动下移。不锈钢库存小幅回升，金九银十后去库存 化再受考验。原生镍有新的产能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the price of foreign sugar has been declining, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively resilient, with the near - month contracts stronger than the far - month ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar price trends is unsustainable. For the approaching - delivery 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high prices on the 05 contract [4][8]. - The consumption in the domestic market is good, inventory has decreased, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change of the US cola formula to use sucrose is also a positive factor. However, the global sugar production has increased, and there is a supply surplus in the new season. The drop in foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound has opened the import profit window, increasing import pressure [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: DATAGRO estimates that the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season will be reduced from the previous 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons; Czarnikow raises the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season; ISO estimates a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 218 yuan, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, exports are 180,000 tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5,086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [42]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with an increase in the net short position and a bearish main trend [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8502, with a basis of 186, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8710, with a basis of 42, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10326, with a basis of 351, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Current main logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - related - Imported soybean inventory [6] - Soybean oil inventory [7] - Soybean meal inventory [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing [11] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic oils and fats inventory [23] Demand - related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [13] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of zinc show a supply shortage in 2025. The global zinc plate production from January to August was 908.85 million tons, and the consumption was 936.98 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 28.13 million tons. The global zinc mine production from January to August was 844.57 million tons [2]. - The basis is neutral, with the spot price at 22,800 and the basis at +60 [2]. - Inventory trends are mixed. On November 13, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 37,800 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,262 tons to 72,152 tons, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The market trend of Shanghai zinc is expected to be a volatile decline. The previous trading day saw a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending upwards. However, considering the increase in LME inventory warrants and the high level of SHFE warrants, the contract ZN2512 is expected to decline in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Futures Market - On November 13, the total trading volume of zinc futures on the exchange was 152,499 lots, with a total trading value of 1,728,958.28. The total open interest was 226,653 lots, a decrease of 732 lots compared to the previous period [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - On November 13, the domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,700 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 100 US dollars/dry ton for imported products, with no change [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,750 - 22,850 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,500 - 22,600 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,630 - 22,730 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; and in Zhejiang, it was 22,710 - 22,810 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Inventory Statistics - From November 3 to November 13, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 16.32 million tons to 16.07 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons [5]. - On November 13, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 37,800 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,262 tons to 72,152 tons [2]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Production - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 52.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production was 2.88% higher than the planned value, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.33%. The planned production for November is 52.23 million tons [14]. 3.5 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On November 13, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was generally in the range of 2,600 - 3,100 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee for 48% grade was 90 - 110 US dollars/ton [16]. 3.6 Futures Company Positions - For the zinc contract zn2512 on November 13, the total trading volume of futures companies was 153,085 lots, an increase of 40,544 lots. The total long position was 70,636 lots, a decrease of 2,440 lots, and the total short position was 68,384 lots, a decrease of 1,517 lots [17]. 3.7 Short - term Outlook - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile decline, closing with a positive line, increasing trading volume. Both long and short positions decreased, with more long - position reductions. The market is expected to consolidate in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the strong zone. The trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is increasing, and the short - side strength is decreasing, with the long - side strength having an expanding advantage. The operating suggestion for the SHFE zinc ZN2512 contract is a volatile decline [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-14） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿冬季安检升级、产能管控，部分煤矿库存低位，供应增量有限。随着下游焦企补 库节奏放缓，焦煤市场近期成交氛围走低，线上竞拍涨跌互现，竞拍流拍率有所增加，部分前期溢价较 大的煤种成交出现回落；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1430，基差216；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 6、预期：近期煤价高位下，下游焦企利润再度压缩，焦企多按需谨慎采购为主，市场看涨心态有所转 弱，采购节奏开始放缓。但考虑部分钢厂接受焦炭第四轮涨价，焦煤需求仍有增加预期，预计短期焦煤 价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The imbalance between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plant production is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, overall supply is expected to be abundant; there are supply disturbance expectations for downstream float glass, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level (bearish). The basis shows that the spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1239 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 49 yuan, and the futures are at a premium to the spot (bearish). Inventory shows that the national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average (bearish). The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward (neutral). The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing (bearish) [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely factors**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1239 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 49 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract increased by 2.06%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased by 2.59%, and the main basis decreased by 9.26% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1190 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan increase from the previous day [12]. 5. Fundamental - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [15]. - **Operating rate and production volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, at a historically high level [18][20]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 6. Fundamental - Demand - **Production - sales rate**: The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, with an operating rate of 75.92% [27]. 7. Fundamental - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].