交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-28 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面， 但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受反倾销初步裁定影 响偏强震荡。偏多 2.基差：现货2560，基差59，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存2.1万吨，上周2.55万吨，周环比减少17.65%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减 少25%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓：主力空单增加，资金流出，偏空 6.预 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with factors such as cost support and anti - involution policy as positives, while weak demand is a negative. For PP, the fundamentals are also neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policy as positives and weak demand as a negative [4][6][8][9] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. July exports were $321.78 billion, up 7.2% year - on - year. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is below expectations, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7310 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 54, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with anti - involution policy expectations rising again, weak agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policy are positive factors; weak demand is a negative factor [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in macro data. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7050 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 29, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, neutral [8] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), neutral [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [8] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with anti - involution policy expectations rising again, slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory [8] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policy are positive factors; weak demand is a negative factor [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7310 (-40), the 01 contract price is 7364 (-38), the basis is - 54 (-2), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), and the social inventory is 562,000 tons (+6,000) [11] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7050 (+0), the 01 contract price is 7021 (-25), the basis is 29 (+25), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), and the social inventory is 260,000 tons (-1,000) [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18] Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [7][10] - **Risk Points**: Sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1307元/吨，基差为-107元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存191.08万吨，较前一周增加0.90%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 纯碱早报 2025-8-28 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、23年以来，纯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing, gold and silver prices have risen. The uncertainty over Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor persists, but the high expectation of Fed easing continues to support the prices of gold and silver. The premium of Shanghai gold has continued to converge, while the premium of Shanghai silver has remained stable. The dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, providing support for gold and silver prices [4][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose slightly, European major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. bond yields declined across the board, the 10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 2.72 basis points to 4.234%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.04% to 98.19, the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1523, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.55% to $3451.80 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the Fed's easing expectation is high, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.22% to $38.69 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 35, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 38165 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The Bank of Korea announces its interest rate decision; the 2025 Digital Expo, the 9th Asia - Pacific Biomedical Cooperation Summit, the 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo, the 2025 SUPCON Technology New Product Release and Industrial AI Innovation Development Conference, and the 2025 China Charging Facilities Industry Operation and Service Development Conference - Suzhou Meeting open; the U.S. imposes an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50% [15]. - 09:30: Bank of Japan审议委员Nakagawa Junko speaks in Yamaguchi Prefecture [15]. - 16:00: ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn speaks [15]. - 19:30: The ECB releases the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting [15]. - 20:30: The U.S. releases the revised Q2 GDP and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 [15]. - 22:00: The U.S. releases the July pending home sales index [15]. - 06:00 the next day: Fed Governor Christopher Waller talks about monetary policy at the Miami Economic Club [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic behind the price movement is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new U.S. government will continue, and the sentiment for gold is high, making it prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices generally follow gold prices. The concern over tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.79% to 613,969, the short position decreased by 1.44% to 465,492, and the net position decreased by 2.89% to 148,477 [30]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 3.45% to 1,045,510, the short position decreased by 2.63% to 967,544, and the net position decreased by 12.63% to 77,966 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly, while the position of silver ETF decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai gold, COMEX gold, Shanghai silver, and COMEX silver all increased slightly. COMEX gold warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and Shanghai silver warehouse receipts were higher than the same period last year [39][40][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent device changes are frequent, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the short - term spot price is expected to follow the trend of oscillation. However, the current processing margin still needs improvement. Attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of goods at ports is scarce in late August, and the port inventory will continue to decline in the next two weeks. From early September, the arrival of foreign goods will increase. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening under the resonance of low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season. But there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to polyester load and production and sales changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the content 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened slightly. There were transactions at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 01 contract this week and next week, and individual transactions at 09 + 20. The price negotiation range was around 4800 - 4875. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 18 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4837, the basis of the 01 contract is 13, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, an increase of 0.05 days compared with the previous period, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Expectation**: The short - term PTA spot price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent device changes in the upstream and downstream [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price oscillated and adjusted. The market negotiation was average. In the morning, driven by the unexpected news of the Singapore device, the futures price rose briefly, and the sellers were reluctant to sell, and the basis strengthened. In the afternoon, as the commodity atmosphere weakened, the ethylene glycol futures price oscillated and declined, but the basis continued to be strong. The high - level spot basis was traded at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The foreign market negotiation was light, and the offer was scarce. The price in the morning was high, and the buying was limited. In the afternoon, as the commodity atmosphere declined, the foreign price fell, and individual transactions were around 534 US dollars/ton [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4550, the basis of the 01 contract is 69, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 50.05 tons, a decrease of 2.69 tons compared with the previous period, showing a bullish situation [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Expectation**: The port inventory will continue to decline in the next two weeks. From early September, the arrival of foreign goods will increase. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Pay attention to polyester load and production and sales changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: In August, some PTA device maintenance plans are expected to improve supply - demand. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device has stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device has stopped unexpectedly [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere is still cautious [9]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and the upward resistance level of the futures price should be noted during the rebound [9]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and ending inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.5. Price - related Charts - Include charts of bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, spot spreads, and inventory analysis, etc., with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][27][44][63][69]. 3.6. Profit - related Charts - Include charts of PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), with data sources from Wind, Mysteel [63][69].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Industry: Natural rubber [4] - Overall evaluation: Neutral with short - term long trading expectation [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply is increasing, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with the market having support below, suggesting short - term long trading [4] Group 3: According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply increases, spot is strong, domestic inventory rises, tire operating rate is high, overall neutral [4] - Basis: Spot price is 14,900, basis is - 860, bearish [4] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, neutral [4] - Market trend: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is above the 20 - day line, bullish [4] - Main positions: Main net short positions with an increase in short positions, bearish [4] - Expectation: The market has support below, short - term long trading [4] 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on August 27 [8] 2.2 Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14] - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17] 2.3 Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] 2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month [29] - Tire industry exports have rebounded [32] 2.5 Basis - The basis strengthened on August 27 [35] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.1 Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption [6] - Spot price is resistant to decline [6] - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6] 3.2 Bearish Factors - Supply increase [6] - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2510, it will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2510, it will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On August 27, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,760 (up 1390 from the previous day), the LME Nickel was 15,190 (down 90), the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,850 (up 10). The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,150 (up 1700), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,400 (up 1650), 1 imported nickel was 122,300 (up 1750), and nickel beans were 124,350 (up 1750). Cold - rolled stainless steel prices in different regions remained unchanged [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 22, the SHFE nickel inventory was 26,943 tons, with futures inventory at 22,552 tons (a decrease of 19 tons and an increase of 411 tons respectively). On August 27, LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (up 72), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,025 (down 61), and the total inventory was 231,245 (up 11) [14][15]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 22, the Wuxi inventory was 61,460 tons, the Foshan inventory was 315,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,091,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons). The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons). On August 27, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 100,851 (down 175) [19][20]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 27, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. High - nickel ferronickel was 942 yuan/nickel point (up 5.5), and low - nickel ferronickel was 3440 yuan/ton (up 20) [23]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost was 13,041, the scrap steel production cost was 13,602, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,747 [25]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 122,341 yuan/ton [28]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There is an expectation of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and there are anti - involution policies. The cost line has support at 120,000 [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, supply-side arrivals this month are lower, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, with trade tensions easing; it's neutral [2]. - The basis of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian mix shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; it's bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14381.57 tons, increasing month-on-month and decreasing year-on-year; it's neutral [2]. - The price on the disk coincides with the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is flat; it's neutral [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; it's bearish [2]. - With domestic demand decreasing and the plan to reduce production capacity impacting the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1利多 (Positive Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high-priced raw materials is strong [6]. 3.2利空 (Negative Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 28, 2025 - Report Title: Crude Oil Morning Report - Research Institution: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Analyst: Jin Zebin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight EIA inventory data showed a slightly larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories. Geopolitically, the UK, France, and Germany may initiate the UN procedure to restore sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will make commitments on its nuclear program within 30 days to delay substantial action. Russia extended its gasoline and fuel export ban, which partially boosted oil prices. However, the domestic market is currently significantly weaker than the international market, highlighting market concerns about demand. Short-term oil prices are expected to trade in a low-range oscillation. Short-term trading range is between 478 - 485, and long-term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: US Treasury Secretary Besent said trade negotiations with China are "all on the table" and will meet with Chinese counterparts again at the end of October or early November. Russia extended its gasoline export ban until September 30, with restrictions on fuel manufacturers to be lifted on October 1 and those on non - manufacturers to last until October 31. The "Friendship" oil pipeline in Hungary is expected to resume oil supply as early as August 27 or 28, though it may not operate at full capacity [3]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price of Oman crude was $69.43 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $68.88 per barrel. The basis was 30.96 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory for the week ending August 22 decreased by 974,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.725 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period decreased by 2.392 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.863 million barrels. Cushing region inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels in the week ending August 22, compared to an increase of 419,000 barrels in the previous week. As of August 27, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of August 19, the main long positions in WTI crude increased, while those in Brent crude decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices are expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. Short - term trading range is between 478 - 485, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **European Powers and Iran**: To restart diplomatic negotiations on the nuclear program before losing the ability to restore sanctions in mid - October, the UK, France, and Germany met with Iran on Tuesday. Although there is room for further diplomatic consultations in the coming weeks, the Tuesday meeting did not obtain specific enough commitments from Iran. The E3 has decided to initiate the UN Security Council's "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism, which may be implemented as early as Thursday. Iran has warned of a "tough response" if sanctions are restored [5]. - **India and Russian Oil**: Igor Isaev, the head of the Mind Money analysis center, believes that it is unlikely for India to completely reject Russian oil due to the attractive price of Urals crude and India's strategic demand for energy resources. However, India may balance geopolitics and economics, potentially limiting the purchase volume of Urals crude or diversifying energy supplies [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the content - **Bearish Factors**: Not clearly stated in the content - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. - **Risk Points**: Disunity within OPEC+ leading to increased production, and escalation of war risks [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude decreased by $0.45 to $67.22, a decline of 0.66%. WTI crude increased by $0.14 to $63.66, an increase of 0.22%. SC crude increased by 4.30 to 491.0, an increase of 0.88%. Oman crude increased by $0.26 to $69.98, an increase of 0.37% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $0.19 to $68.48, an increase of 0.28%. WTI increased by $0.14 to $63.66, an increase of 0.22%. Oman crude in the Asia - Pacific region increased by $0.30 to $70.08, an increase of 0.43%. Shengli crude increased by $0.42 to $65.51, an increase of 0.65%. Dubai crude increased by $0.01 to $69.95, an increase of 0.01% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data for different time periods are provided, showing trends of inventory changes [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Fund Net Long Position**: As of August 19, the net long position was 120,209, an increase of 3,467 [17]. - **Brent Crude Fund Net Long Position**: As of August 19, the net long position was 182,695, a decrease of 23,852 [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased, with high inventory and weakening cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 in the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, and demand is showing a continuous recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 in the 2511 contract [7][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Supply last week was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase; demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease. Silicon inventory is high, organic silicon inventory is low, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. Xinjiang's 553 production has a loss, and cost support is weakening [6]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 575 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, major port inventory was flat, and sample enterprise inventory increased [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is increasing and near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the predicted August production is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase. Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production and inventory vary, and the industry average cost is 35,590 yuan/ton with a profit of 12,410 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the N - type dense material price was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historical high [10]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is recovering, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Overview**: Presents price changes of various contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon [16]. - **Polysilicon Market Overview**: Shows price changes of various contracts, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon basis and the spread between 421 and 553 grades [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Illustrates the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Presents the cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 to 2025 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Covers DMC price, production, downstream price, import - export, and inventory trends [39][41][45]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [48][51][53]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Covers cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories in the polysilicon market [58][64][67][70][73]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: Displays the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [76]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: Shows trends in new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [77].