Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on Shanghai Aluminum (August 18 - 22) - Author: Zhu Senlin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, adjusted, and declined last week, with the main contract falling 0.67% to close at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - Under the goal of carbon neutrality, long - term capacity control, weak demand in the domestic real estate market, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increase in steel and aluminum tariffs are negative factors for domestic aluminum prices [3] - Domestically, demand has entered the off - season, waiting for consumption to recover [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract declined 0.67% last week, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - LME inventory was 478,725 tons last week, showing a slight decrease from the previous week, while SHFE weekly inventory increased by 3,952 tons to 124,605 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.6 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.3 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [10] 2.2 Other Elements - The report also mentions aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods, but specific content is not detailed [6] 3. Market Structure - The market structure section includes the analysis of the basis and import profit, but specific data is not provided [25]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Polyolefin Weekly Report" and dated August 22, 2025 [2] Market Performance Summary - Last week, L01 rose 0.39% to close at 7380 with a reduction of about 22,000 contracts in positions PP01 fell 0.65% to close at 7038 with an increase of about 45,000 contracts in positions [5] - Technically, recent L and PP main contracts are trading near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend [5] - According to the main positions in Dayue's five - major indicators, the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for recent L and PP are both bearish [5] - The basis of the L main contract is - 80, and that of the PP main contract is - 8, both main contracts are at a premium [5] Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2% On August 20, Bloomberg reported that a comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated to address long - term overcapacity, expected to be introduced in September [5] - Supply and demand: The overall demand for PE agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film - making start - up rate is low PP downstream is gradually moving into the peak season, with a slight improvement in demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc [5] - Inventory: The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high [5] Forecast - It is expected that the L and PP main contracts will fluctuate with a slightly upward trend this week [5] Market Data Tables Futures and Spot Market Data | Contract | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Change Rate | Spot Type | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Production Type | Latest Profit | Weekly Profit Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L01 | 7380 | 29 | 0.39% | L Delivery Goods | 7300 | 50 | L Oil - based | - 177 | - 26 | | L05 | 7392 | 46 | 0.62% | PE Comprehensive Warehouse | 564 | 59 | L Coal - based | 805 | - 158 | | L09 | 7321 | 15 | 0.20% | PE Social Inventory | 557 | - 12 | | | | | PP01 | 7038 | - 46 | - 0.65% | PP Delivery Goods | 7030 | - 70 | PP Oil - based | - 154 | - 12 | | PP05 | 7059 | - 21 | - 0.30% | PP Comprehensive Warehouse | 572 | - 15 | PP Coal - based | 362 | - 55 | | PP09 | 6993 | - 65 | - 0.93% | PP Social Inventory | 261 | - 10 | PDH | - 458 | - 48 | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PE Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 1869.5 | 1599.84 | 1379.72 | 46.3% | 2979.56 | 39.55 | 2979.56 | | | 2019 | | 1964.5 | 5.1% | 1765.08 | 1638.16 | 48.1% | 3403.24 | 36.61 | 3406.18 | 14.3% | | 2020 | | 2314.5 | 17.8% | 2008.47 | 1828.16 | 47.7% | 3836.63 | 37.83 | 3835.41 | 12.6% | | 2021 | | 2754.5 | 19.0% | 2328.34 | 1407.76 | 37.7% | 3736.1 | 37.57 | 3736.36 | - 2.6% | | 2022 | | 2929.5 | 6.4% | 2532.19 | 1274.55 | 33.5% | 3806.74 | 38.93 | 3805.38 | 1.8% | | 2023 | | 3189.5 | 8.9% | 2807.37 | 1264.72 | 31.1% | 4072.09 | 41.43 | 4069.59 | 6.9% | | 2024 | | 3584.5 | 12.4% | 2773.8 | 1360.32 | 32.9% | 4134.12 | 47.8 | 4127.75 | 1.4% | | 2025E | | 4319.5 | 20.5% | | | | | | | [16] Polypropylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.8.18-8.22 上周玻璃期货先抑后扬，主力合约FG2601收盘较前一周下跌3.14%报1173元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1072元/吨，较前一周下跌1.47%。 宏观政策利好消退，行情回归基本面逻辑。供给方面，玻璃现货价格回落，行业冷 修高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产223条，开工率75.34%，日熔量15.96万吨，环比 持平，供给历史低位企稳。需求方面，下游加工厂订单维持偏弱水平，无明显好转，拿 货多维持刚需，且受原片价格连续下滑影响下暂无备货意愿，消化自身的库存为主；截 止8月21日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6360.60万重量箱，较前一周增加0.28%，库存持续 累积。综合来看，玻璃基本面不改疲弱，短期预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.47% to close at 78,690 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors disturbed copper prices, and there were still global instability factors. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons compared with last week [4]. - The supply - demand situation of copper is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 0.47% to close at 78,690 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Industrial spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons [4]. 2. Fundamentals 2.1 PMI - No detailed content provided [10] 2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation of copper is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. 2.3 Inventory - LME copper inventory was 155,975 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons. Exchange inventory was in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][16][19]. 3. Market Structure 3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees were at a low level [22]. 3.2 CFTC Position - CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [24]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Spread - No detailed content provided [27] 3.4 Import Profit - No detailed content provided [30] 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No detailed content provided

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 本周概要： • 尿素周评：上周UR01上涨0.12%，收于1739，合计增仓约2000张。技术上看，近期UR主力合约回 到20日均线下方，技术走势偏空。 • 大越五大指标中的主力持仓显示，近期UR高胜率席位持仓偏空。 • UR主力合约基差71。 • 基本面来看：近期尿素盘面震荡回落。前期市场传言中印关系改善尿素出口有增长预期导致期货 价格上涨，实际出口需求未见明显改善，市场情绪回落。当前日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库 存整体高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥、三聚氰胺开工均偏低，农业需求偏弱。国内尿素整体 供过于求仍明显，出口利润有所回落但仍较强，出口政策未超预期放开。本周预计UR主力合约震 荡。 尿素周报 2025-8-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 | | 盘 | 面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate increased, and the refineries increased production, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, although some sub - sectors'开工 rates have increased [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous period, and the delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3443 - 3487 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a monthly decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase. The sample enterprise output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase; the construction asphalt 开工 rate is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt 开工 rate is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase; the road - modified asphalt 开工 rate is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase; the waterproofing membrane 开工 rate is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase. Crude oil is strengthening, and short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3443 - 3487 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include the relatively high price of crude oil providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increased expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, 开工 rates, and profits [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Analysis**: On August 21, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 45 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and other areas [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [38][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, 开工 rate, and maintenance loss volume [44][46][49][53][56][59][61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [64][68][72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand, asphalt 开工 rate, and downstream 开工 conditions [81][84][87][91][96][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [107][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In August, as China approaches the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holiday season, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. However, the domestic macro - environment is pessimistically expected, and high - temperature weather suppresses short - term fresh pork consumption. Although China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence, the market is likely to see both supply and demand increase this week, with pig prices maintaining a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in both supply and demand. Spot prices are short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures market follows a similar pattern. Although the spot price is weak, the decline may be limited due to reduced slaughter. Low pig - raising profits and relatively good large - pig slaughter enthusiasm also suppress short - term price expectations. The stabilization of the market depends on future supply reduction and demand recovery [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the further decline of domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and pig and pork consumption enters the off - season after May Day [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: In August, supply and demand are expected to increase. The market may see both pig and meat supply increase. High - temperature weather and a pessimistic macro - environment suppress short - term demand, but tariff policies boost market confidence [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 13,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is - 65 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,500, with a basis of 106, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 860,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700 [3] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,520, with a basis of 20, indicating a neutral situation where the spot price is slightly higher than the futures price [5] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous value of 390,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - Main Position: The main position of palm oil has changed from short to long [5] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [5] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,880, with a basis of 89, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous value of 630,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have increased [6] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [7] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] Supply and Demand Aspects - Supply factors include import soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [26] - Demand factor: The apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Report Investment Rating The report does not mention the investment rating for the glass industry. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit restoration leading to a slowdown in cold - repair speed, and开工率, output at historically low levels, while terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and widely in the long - term [2][5]. - Although there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry due to the "anti - involution" policy, the overall situation is still affected by multiple negative factors [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1162 yuan/ton to 1156 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass dropped from 1080 yuan/ton to 1072 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74%. The main basis increased from - 82 yuan/ton to - 84 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.44% [6]. 2. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1072 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The report does not provide specific content on glass production profit. 4. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%, at a historically low level. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 159,600 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of recovery [21][23]. 5. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The report also mentions factors such as housing sales, new construction, and downstream processing plant operations and orders, but no specific data is provided [27]. 6. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.606 million weight - boxes, an increase of 0.28% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [41]. 7. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [42].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 01 has returned to the 14,000 mark for a battle. There are significant differences in views between bulls and bears on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous. Technically, the 14,000 mark is crucial. If it stands above, there is still upward momentum; if it falls below, there is still room for decline [5]. - The overall fundamentals of cotton are neutral. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a reduction in previous China - US mutual tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%; cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 forecast: production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,210 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,180 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 July is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bullish, with a net long - position increase, indicating a bullish trend for the main force [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption was 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year; the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents/pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: In 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.