Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that fuel oil will trade in a range due to a small intraday increase in crude oil, a lack of substantial positive news in the bunker market, and continued wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. Specifically, FU2601 is expected to trade between 2660 - 2720, and LU2601 between 3240 - 3280 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, with some support from a mild recovery in downstream bunker activities, but the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has reached its largest discount in over a week. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by stable downstream bunker demand, but competitive quotes for November second - half shipments have limited the spot spread. - The basis shows that Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of - 55 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a basis of - 12 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 5 was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels. - The price is near the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending downward. - High - sulfur main position is short, with an increase in short positions, while low - sulfur main position is long, with an increase in long positions [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely positives**: Russia has extended its fuel export restrictions; the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely negatives**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified. - **Market drivers**: The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks affecting supply and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures prices**: The previous FU main contract futures price was 2692, and the current price is 2683, a decrease of 9 or - 0.33%. The previous LU main contract futures price was 3257, and the current price is 3268, an increase of 11 or 0.34%. - **Spot prices**: The previous and current prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil are 469.00 and 470.00 respectively, an increase of 1.00 or 0.21%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil remains unchanged at 478.00. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 363.90 to 363.56, a decrease of - 0.34 or - 0.09%. Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 453.50 to 449.36, a decrease of - 4.14 or - 0.91%. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 334.02 to 332.91, a decrease of - 1.11 or - 0.33%. Singapore diesel increased from 687.45 to 704.48, an increase of 17.04 or 2.48% [5][6]. 3.4 Inventory Data Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from August 27 to November 5 shows fluctuations. In the week of November 5, the inventory was 21.069 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels compared to the previous period [8]. 3.5 Spread Data The report presents a chart of the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but no specific numerical analysis is provided other than the scale on the chart [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile decline in the previous trading session, and the short - term market may experience volatile consolidation. The price of Shanghai zinc ZN2512 is expected to decline with fluctuations. [19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1150700 tons, and the consumption was 1171700 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21000 tons. From January to August 2025, the global zinc plate production was 9088500 tons, and the consumption was 9369800 tons, with a supply shortage of 281300 tons. In August 2025, the global zinc ore production was 1069600 tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8445700 tons, which is a bullish factor. [2] - The spot price of zinc was 22690, and the basis was +20, showing a neutral situation. [2] - On November 10, the LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 34900 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 601 tons to 69869 tons, which is a bearish factor. [2] - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile decline in the previous trading session, closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is a bullish factor. [2] - The main positions were net short, and the short positions increased, which is a bearish factor. [2] - The LME inventory warrants remained at a low level, while the SHFE warrants remained at a high level. [2] 3.2 Zinc Futures Market Quotes on November 10 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 10 was 153081 lots, and the trading value was 1732292870 yuan. The open interest was 228100 lots, an increase of 1217 lots. [3] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on November 10 - The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 2800 yuan/metal ton, and the price of imported zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged. [4] - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22640 - 22740 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22440 - 22540 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22575 - 22675 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22615 - 22715 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. [4] 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Major Markets (October 30 - November 10, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on November 10 was 161500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared with November 3 and a decrease of 100 tons compared with November 6. [5] 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on November 10 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the SHFE on November 10 were 69869 tons, an increase of 601 tons compared with the previous day. [6] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on November 10 - The LME zinc inventory on November 10 was 34900 tons, remaining unchanged compared with the previous day. [7] 3.7 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 10 - The average price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 2800 yuan/metal ton, and the average price of imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/kiloton. [16] 3.8 Zinc Futures Trading and Position Ranking of SHFE Members on November 10 - For the contract code zn2512, the top three in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan Futures. The top three in terms of long positions were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan Futures. The top three in terms of short positions were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan Futures, and Dongzheng Futures. [17] 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The actual production of refined zinc in October 2025 was 524300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The planned production for November is 522300 tons. [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot being strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and tire operating rate at a high level. The market has support below, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot**: The spot price is 14,550, and the basis is -560, showing a bearish signal. The 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) spot price remained flat on November 10 [4][8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has been continuously de - stocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [4][14][17]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]. 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on November 10 [35]. 3.5 Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.6 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded, and tire production and exports are at record highs for the same period [23][26][29][32].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which has put pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8372, and the basis is 144, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8714, and the basis is 24, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. This is a neutral factor [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. This is a bearish factor [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. Subsequently, as it enters the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9881, and the basis is 294, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. This is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. This is a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of edible oils are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, safety inspections and strict control of over - production lead to a continuous tight supply. The improvement in coke prices boosts market confidence, and the procurement demand from downstream and middlemen has slightly increased. However, due to poor profits, downstream is starting to be cautious about some over - priced coal types. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will remain stable [2]. - For coke, after the third round of price increase, the loss of coke enterprises has slightly eased, and the inventory is at a low level. But most coke enterprises are on the verge of profit and loss, and there is an intention to expand production cuts. The supply pattern remains tight in the short term. The demand from downstream steel mills has decreased slightly, which suppresses the further increase of coke prices. It is expected that the short - term coke price will remain stable [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is tight, downstream demand has a slight recovery, but there is caution about over - priced coal; bullish [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 164.5, spot premium over futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - Main position: Net long position of main coking coal contract, long position decreasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: Downstream demand is good, but steel mill profits are low and iron - water output is falling, so it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [2]. Coke - Fundamental: After the price increase, the loss has eased, inventory is low, but profit issues may lead to production cuts, supply remains tight; bullish [6]. - Basis: Spot price is 1680, basis is - 63.5, spot discount to futures; bearish [6]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [6]. - Main position: Net short position of main coke contract, short position increasing; bearish [6]. - Expectation: Supply is stable with profit repair, low inventory supports the price, but downstream demand is weakening, so it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [6]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Increase in iron - water production, difficult to increase supply [4]. - Bearish factors: Slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Bullish factors: Increase in iron - water production and simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Prices - On November 10 (17:30), most port metallurgical coke prices showed a downward trend, with price drops ranging from 20 to 40 [9]. - On November 10 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal varied by type and port, and the price of 1/3 coking coal (GJ) at Caofeidian Port increased by 110 [10]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is currently dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis is running at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see [5]. - For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. The port inventory has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, resulting in weak market sentiment [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored when the market rebounds [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stable. The negotiation and transaction price in mid - and late November was around 4565 - 4640, and the mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 78 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4594, the basis of the 01 contract is - 110, and the futures price is at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position has decreased [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, leading to weak market sentiment. The spot transaction was around a premium of 67 - 72 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4008, the basis of the 01 contract is 55, and the futures price is at a discount [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 56.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 tons [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: The main position has changed from short to long [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus PTA - The short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the device [5]. MEG - It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity has been increasing, and the supply and demand situation has changed. For example, in 2024, the supply growth rate was relatively high in some months, and the inventory also changed accordingly [8]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the demand from the polyester industry has also affected its supply - demand balance. The port inventory has also shown different trends in different periods [9]. Price Data - On November 10, 2025, compared with November 7, 2025, the prices of some products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, and MEG have changed. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 382.778 to 56.7 yuan/ton [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is moderately weak, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is neutral year-on-year, and the operating rate of melamine has declined. The large price difference between domestic and international markets has led to an increase in export volume, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -40, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is neutral, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the materialization of export expectations has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices and rebounding agricultural demand; bearish factors include domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1620 (+20), the Henan spot price is 1620 (0), and the FOB China price is 2741 [6]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1660 (-7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1732 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1755 (+2) [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR01 contract is -40 (+27) [6]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts is 6415 (+1830), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 97,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - **Capacity and Production**: From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E [9]. - **Net Imports and Consumption**: Net imports and apparent consumption have also shown certain fluctuations. The import dependence has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [9]. - **Inventory and Consumption Growth**: The期末 inventory and consumption growth rates have also changed over the years [9].

Group 1: Overall Market Condition and Expectations - The bond market showed an overall oscillatory strengthening trend, with long - term bonds performing slightly better than short - term bonds. The 30 - year main contract of treasury bond futures rose 0.22%. The liquidity in the inter - bank market tightened further, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions rose more than 15bp to 1.48%. Vanke bonds generally declined, with "22 Vanke 06" falling more than 8%. The bond market sentiment was fair, and it is expected to remain oscillatory until the end of the year, with few trend opportunities [2]. - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF roll - overs for the 8th consecutive month. The October PMI data was below expectations and still below the boom - bust line. In September, the CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase of core CPI expanded for the 5th consecutive month. The new social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [4]. Group 2: Capital and Policy - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment on the day was 41.6 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Basis and Inventory Analysis - The main basis of TS was - 0.0211, indicating that the cash bond was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The main basis of TF was - 0.0235, also bearish. The main basis of T was 0.0202, and the main basis of TL was 0.1186, both indicating that the cash bond was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [2]. - The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which was neutral [3]. Group 4: Market Technical Analysis - The main contracts of TS, TF, and T were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [3]. - The main contract of TS had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of TF also had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of T had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. Group 5: Main Contract Quotes | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.485 | 0.01% | 58,830 | 231,393 | - 4,216 | 250018.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 105.940 | 0.02% | 49,109 | 138,398 | - 4,021 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.468 | 0.00% | 24,929 | 67,365 | - 700 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.28 | 0.22% | 96,097 | 129,150 | 1,495 | 210005.IB | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore prices weakened. After the macro - impact subsided, the market focus returned to fundamentals. The lack of improvement in terminal consumption directly hit the black - metal industry chain. Both steel products showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand continued to decline, which dampened market confidence. Notably, iron ore weakened significantly this week. The negative feedback from the weak terminal demand was finally transmitted to iron ore, with a large accumulation of port inventories and a significant drop in molten iron production, resulting in iron ore performing weaker than steel products. Looking ahead, given the unfavorable domestic policies and external export conditions, terminal demand is unlikely to improve. The report maintains the view that the pattern of the off - peak season during the peak period for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore market will remain weak [57] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price decreased from 803 yuan/wet ton to 773 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 30 yuan; Ba Hun powder price decreased from 840 yuan/wet ton to 814 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 26 yuan. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 15.51 yuan/wet ton to - 9.32 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 6.19 yuan; Ba Hun powder spot landing profit increased from 8.41 yuan/wet ton to 19.75 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11.34 yuan. Australia's shipments to China decreased from 1625.3 tons to 1544.8 tons, a decrease of 80.5 tons; Brazil's shipments decreased from 925.1 tons to 856 tons, a decrease of 69.1 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 15272.93 tons to 15624.13 tons, an increase of 351.2 tons; imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2084.3 tons to 3314.1 tons, an increase of 1229.8 tons; imported iron ore port clearance volume increased from 331.22 tons to 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 79.6 tons to 125.8 tons, an increase of 46.2 tons; daily molten iron production decreased from 236.36 tons to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons; steel enterprise profitability rate decreased from 45.02% to 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points [6] 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3230 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased from 3330 yuan/ton to 3260 yuan/ton, a drop of 70 yuan. Blast furnace operating rate increased from 81.75% to 83.13%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points; electric furnace operating rate decreased from 68.83% to 67.03%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points. Rebar blast furnace profit increased from - 57 yuan/ton to - 39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan; hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 114 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 139 yuan/ton to - 164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. Weekly rebar production decreased from 212.59 tons to 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil production decreased from 323.56 tons to 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons. Weekly rebar social inventory decreased from 430.81 tons to 425.7 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons; weekly rebar enterprise inventory decreased from 171.71 tons to 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons. Weekly hot - rolled coil social inventory increased from 328.93 tons to 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil enterprise inventory decreased from 77.66 tons to 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons. Weekly rebar apparent consumption decreased from 232.19 tons to 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons; weekly hot - rolled coil apparent consumption decreased from 331.89 tons to 314.3 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons. Building materials trading volume decreased from 89930 tons to 87098 tons, a decrease of 2832 tons [29][31] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: Blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates are presented, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing and the electric furnace operating rate decreasing this week [29] - **Production Volumes**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Chinese steel enterprises shows a decreasing trend [29] - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces increased, while the profit of rebar in electric furnaces decreased [29] - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, while the social inventory of hot - rolled coils increased and the enterprise inventory decreased [31] - **Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [31] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [31] - **Export Volumes**: The monthly export volume of steel products in China is presented [53] - **Real Estate Indicators**: The report shows the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, etc. [54][55] - **Manufacturing PMI**: The monthly value of the manufacturing PMI in China is presented [56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of rapeseed meal is neutral [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and declined, affected by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a volatile state, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, influenced by soybean meal [8]. - Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price following the fluctuations, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [33]. - Rapeseed meal will fluctuate and rise in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term, mainly affected by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal [42]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of rapeseed meal, including its fundamentals, market news, and technical indicators, and gives trading strategies and future focus points [8][44] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, supporting commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result [11]. - The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11] 4. Fundamental Data - The rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% [8]. - The spot price is 2,640, with a basis of 101, indicating a premium over futures [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward [8]. - The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - The import of rapeseed has no shipping schedule in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [19]. - The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are at low levels [21][23]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [31] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and funds have flowed in [8] 6. Trading Strategies - Futures: Short - term range - bound and slightly bullish. The RM2601 contract will fluctuate around 2,500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [12]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose due to the Canadian Prime Minister's statement. The China - Canada trade relationship is still uncertain, and it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [42]. - The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a high level, and the short - term market is in a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium - high level limits the rebound height [42]. - The MACD is oscillating and rising at a low level, but the red energy is narrowing. Future trends depend on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [42] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - The most important points are the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - The second - most important points are domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [44]. - Other important points are macro - factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44]