Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has significant differences in views on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for cotton will be prosperous. The 14,000 mark is crucial. If it holds above, there is upward momentum; if it falls below, there is further downside potential [5]. - The overall assessment of the cotton market is neutral, with both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year, while bearish factors include postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The previous day, Zhengzhou cotton quickly broke below the 14,000 mark and then recovered. There are large differences in views among the long and short sides on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's August 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,240 yuan, with a basis of 1,185 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main trend is bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption was 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrowing year - on - year fluctuation [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Forecast**: In the 2025/26 period, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for "Position Data" is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level. The US is facilitating a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, weakening geopolitical concerns. The API crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, which partially boosted oil prices. Overall, crude oil continued to oscillate weakly at a low level, awaiting more news from the Russia-Ukraine situation. Short-term prices are expected to range between 480-490, and long-term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US President Trump said that Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky are arranging a meeting to end the Ukraine war. India's oil imports from Russia decreased in July. US Treasury Secretary criticized India's oil trading behavior. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 19, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $68.06 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.79 per barrel. The basis was 23.85 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 3.036 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275,000 barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 45,000 barrels for the week ending August 8. As of August 19, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average was downward, and the price was below the moving average, indicating a bearish signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, suggesting a bearish trend [3]. - **Expectation**: Short-term prices are expected to range between 480-490, and long-term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - **Trilateral Meeting**: The White House is planning a trilateral meeting between the US, Russian, and Ukrainian presidents in Budapest to end the long - standing conflict. The US Secret Service is preparing for the summit, although the final venue may change [5]. - **API Inventory Data**: For the week ending August 15, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.2 million barrels. The API Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 112,000 barrels. The API gasoline inventory decreased by 956,000 barrels, and the distillate oil inventory increased by 535,000 barrels [5]. - **Option Betting**: Traders are pouring into a specific option bet, expecting the Fed to take a dovish stance and cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points next month. However, higher - than - expected inflation data has led some traders to lower their interest - rate cut expectations [5]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period may be extended again [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium and long term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $66.60 to $65.79, a decrease of 1.22%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil decreased from $62.70 to $61.77, a decrease of 1.48%. The settlement price of SC crude oil decreased slightly from 485.2 to 485.1, a decrease of 0.02%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil increased from $67.64 to $68.10, an increase of 0.68% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $67.53 to $67.62, an increase of 0.13%. The price of WTI decreased from $63.42 to $62.35, a decrease of 1.69%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $67.95 to $68.06, an increase of 0.16%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim decreased slightly from $64.00 to $63.99, a decrease of 0.02%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $67.90 to $68.17, an increase of 0.40% [9]. - **API Inventory Trend**: From June 6 to August 15, the API inventory showed fluctuations, with a decrease of 2.417 million barrels for the week ending August 15 [10]. - **EIA Inventory Trend**: From June 6 to August 8, the EIA inventory also fluctuated, with an increase of 3.036 million barrels for the week ending August 8 [12]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From June 10 to August 12, the net long position of the WTI crude oil fund showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 25,087 on August 12 compared to August 5 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From June 10 to August 12, the net long position of the Brent crude oil fund also fluctuated, with a decrease of 34,430 on August 12 compared to August 5 [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient supply and weak demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is also suppressed by overall sufficient supply. Overnight, crude oil oscillated at a low level, and fuel oil moved in tandem. With the US arranging a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders, market risk sentiment has subsided. Fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level, with FU2509 operating in the 2670 - 2730 range and LU2510 in the 3430 - 3480 range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak due to supply and demand; overall supply weighs on high - sulfur fuel oil market [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have positive basis, with spot prices higher than futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: Fuel oil prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main position is long, with long positions increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level, with FU2509 in the 2670 - 2730 range and LU2510 in the 3430 - 3480 range [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand optimism needs verification, and upstream crude oil prices are weak [4]. - **Market Driver**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The price of the FU main contract decreased by 20 to 2680, a decline of 0.74%; the price of the LU main contract decreased by 1 to 3458, a decline of 0.03%. The FU basis increased by 25 to 188, a rise of 15.49%; the LU basis increased by 6 to 81, a rise of 8.19% [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2 to 484, a decline of 0.41%; the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.18 to 387.79, a decline of 0.05%. Other prices also had corresponding changes [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]. 3.5 Spread Data The report does not provide specific spread data analysis, only shows a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the methanol market and predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. Specifically, MA2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. On the mainland, due to the pessimistic sentiment of industry players caused by the macro - environment and the lack of further positive factors in demand, the willingness of long - term contract traders to sell has increased significantly. However, the relatively tight inventory of methanol enterprises in the mainland, especially in production areas, provides some support for prices. In the port area, the significant fluctuations in coking coal and coke have a negative feedback on the methanol futures and spot markets, and the positive factors supporting the market have reversed. Coupled with the expected continuous inventory build - up in ports and the lack of demand from major downstream industries, the port market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for positive guidance from policy and news. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals show a neutral situation on the mainland and in ports. The basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, with an increase in port inventories. The disk shows a bearish signal as the 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average. The main position shows a bullish signal as the main position is net long but the long positions are decreasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 fluctuating between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. [4] 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), a decrease in methanol production start - up in Iran, low port inventories, the production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen since May 16, the planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong in late August, and the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the northwest. [6] - **Likely Bearish Factors**: The resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE start - up, a certain profit margin for coal - to - methanol production with active sales, and the accumulation of inventory in some factories in production areas due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: There are price data for various types of methanol in the spot and futures markets, including the prices of ring - Bohai Sea thermal coal, CFR China main port, import costs, etc., as well as price changes and spreads. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 3.88% this week, while the futures price increased by 0.67%. [8][9][11] - **Start - up Rate Data**: The weighted average national start - up rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased. [8] - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 891,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 87,800 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 72,900 tons to 571,200 tons. [4] - **Profit Data**: The profit of coal - to - methanol production decreased by 77 yuan/ton this week, while the profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol production increased by 323 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol production remained unchanged. [19] - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week. The production profit of acetic acid increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde remained at a loss, and the production profit of dimethyl ether remained stable. [29][34][37] 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Ningxia Energy Chemical, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses. [57] - **Overseas Methanol Device Maintenance**: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different states, such as the QAFAC in Qatar having a maintenance period from the end of February to March 16, and the G3 in the United States having an unplanned shutdown until early May. [58] - **Olefin Device Maintenance**: Some domestic olefin production devices are in a state of maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy having a 45 - day maintenance starting from March 15, and China Coal Lin having a maintenance plan in the second quarter. [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is flat, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3430 - 3476 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains at a high level, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production is 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The sample enterprises' output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase from the previous week, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the previous week. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous day. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 19, the Shandong spot price was 3550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 97 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week. The in - plant inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase from the previous week. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease from the previous week. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions have decreased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, weekly output, and weekly开工率 of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: It shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: It presents the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - Related**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][89]. - **Mechanical Equipment - Related**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **By - Use Classification**: It presents the historical trends of modified asphalt, construction asphalt, and other types of asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [108].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, domestic aquaculture demand, and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a short - term volatile and upward pattern, with RM2601 ranging from 2540 to 2600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal prices first rose and then fell. The tight spot market and the pending final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports influenced the market. The short - term demand is in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations. The market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - The main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand balance sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24] - **Price and inventory data**: - The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2650, and the basis is 46, indicating a premium over futures. - The rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week and 14.29% year - on - year. - The import volume of rapeseed in August was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has fallen to a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has decreased slightly [8][25][27]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 7万吨 | 环比有所增加3 | 57% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | 环比增长2 | 需求有所抬升 | 多晶硅 | 56% | ， | ， | . | . | . | | | | | | | | | 库存为24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week. The output in July 2025 was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, while that of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. It is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase significantly [7]. - The overall downstream demand is weak. The overall downstream operating rate is 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles is 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes is 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.869 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films is 72.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin is 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.429 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive, but the current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - The cost side shows different trends. The profit of calcium carbide method is - 230.8115 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method is - 539.6422 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 10.30% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference is 2,661.85 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - The overall situation is that the cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,949 - 5,053 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The supply pressure increased this week. In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. It is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase significantly [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream demand is weak. The overall downstream operating rate is 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different trends, but generally, the demand is not strong. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive, but the current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method is - 230.8115 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method is - 539.6422 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 10.30% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference is 2,661.85 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - **Other Factors**: The basis on August 19 was - 71 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%, the social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased [10]. - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,949 - 5,053 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Includes yesterday's market data on various indicators such as PVC prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream operating rates. For example, the price of 01 contract decreased by 1.05% compared with the previous value, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.66%, and the factory inventory decreased by 3.10% [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: The base - price relationship between the spot and futures is presented, showing the change trend of the base price over time [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: The price and trading volume trends of PVC futures are shown, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages such as MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, and MA120. The change trends of the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats are also presented [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: The spread trends between different contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread, are analyzed [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry. For example, the price trend of semi - coke in Shenmu, the cost - profit situation of calcium carbide in Shaanxi, the price and production of liquid chlorine, the price and production of raw salt, the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and production of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, and the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry in Shandong are all presented [26][28][30][32][35]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, profits, production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. For example, the capacity utilization rate of the calcium carbide method this week is 79.96%, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and the capacity utilization rate of the ethylene method is 81.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [37][39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC. It also includes the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment. For example, the daily sales volume of PVC traders in the East China region (excluding Shandong) is presented, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment and construction is analyzed [43][47][52][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory situation of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse inventory, ethylene factory warehouse inventory, and social inventory. For example, the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse inventory decreased by 3.68% month - on - month, and the social inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month [56]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method. For example, the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane and the export volume of PVC are presented, and the price spread between Tianjin and Taiwan in the ethylene method is analyzed [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export volume, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import volume [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week showed an increase, with production reaching 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week growth and higher than the historical average. Demand - side inventory of sample enterprises also increased, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises rising by 0.51% to 95,081 tons and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 4.45% to 17,296 tons. [8] - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%, resulting in a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, leading to a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral. The basis on August 19th showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1,840 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory situation was complex, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 2.56% to 49,693 tons, lower than the historical average, while the downstream and other inventories increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly by 0.11% to 142,256 tons, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The disk showed that MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract decreased, which is bearish. [9] - In terms of expectations, in July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton. [9] - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% daily increase, with a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton; the cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: Bearish; Inventory: Neutral; Disk: Bullish; Main Position: Bearish [9]. - Expectations: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month (3.27% increase); import volume was 18,000 physical tons, predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month (2.78% increase). Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Supply - side Data** - The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, remaining unchanged. The daily production cost of spodumene was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase. The monthly processing cost of spodumene was 19,810 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The daily production profit of spodumene was 2,126 yuan/ton, a 98.88% increase. The daily production cost of lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The monthly processing cost of lepidolite was 35,300 yuan/ton, a 1.48% decrease. The daily production profit of lepidolite was - 3,890 yuan/ton, a 21.70% decrease. The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% decrease. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% decrease. The downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% increase. Other inventory was 44,280 tons, a 2.36% increase. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly production of lithium concentrate was 44,810 tons, a 13.59% increase. The monthly production of lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.60% decrease. The monthly production of salt - lake lithium was 12,340 tons, a 7.57% decrease. The monthly production of recycled lithium was 6,380 tons, a 9.81% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 427,626 tons, a 17.25% decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a 16.31% decrease. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a 17.22% decrease. The supply - demand balance was 2.682 million tons, a 67.31% increase [16]. - **Demand - side Data** - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59%, a 5.36% increase. The monthly production was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase. The monthly operating rate of ternary precursor was 50.97%, a 2.93% increase. The monthly production was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase. The weekly inventory of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% increase. The monthly total battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease. The loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 10,900 GWh, a 1.87% increase. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 44,900 GWh, a 5.27% decrease. The production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, a 0.16% decrease. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.329 million units, a 1.68% increase. The export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, a 3.30% decrease. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales was 48.67%, a 6.36% increase [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].