Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Steel billet prices are slightly adjusted, steel trading is average, and there is a possibility of expanded maintenance due to poor profits, leading to cautious procurement by enterprises. However, high pig iron production supports coking coal demand during the peak season, with most enterprises purchasing as needed. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to be weakly stable [2]. - **Coke**: Steel mills maintain high pig iron production, and coke enterprises can maintain stable operation with current profit levels. But steel prices are volatile, pig iron production has peaked and declined, weakening the bullish sentiment in the market. Additionally, the sales pressure of steel products restricts the upward momentum of coke prices. Short - term coke prices are expected to remain stable [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines have slightly fluctuating production, but the overall supply pattern remains unchanged. Coking and steel enterprises purchase as needed, and intermediate speculative traders' purchasing enthusiasm has slowed down. New coal mine orders have decreased, and the online auction sentiment has weakened, with some coal prices falling and coal mine quotations slightly adjusted. However, the inventory pressure of coking coal in coal mines is small, remaining at a medium - low level, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1260, and the basis is 114, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, and the long position has increased [3]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising pig iron production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: With the price adjustment of some coking coal at the raw material end and the first - round price increase of coke, the profit of coking enterprises has slightly recovered. Currently, coking enterprises' profits are mostly on the verge of profit and loss, with stable operation and low inventory, but there is a lack of confidence in further price increases [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1610, and the basis is - 32.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position has increased [8]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rates; bearish factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [10]. Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On October 13 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing changes [11]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On October 13 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports, with different grades and from different origins, are provided, with some prices rising [12]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [27]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [32]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [45]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [49].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. With domestic demand decreasing and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The analysis of various factors shows a mixed situation, with some factors being bullish and some bearish [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production has started to decrease, and the arrival level this month has decreased. Overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there will be crude steel reduction policies in the market, while the trade war has eased. The situation is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 831, with a basis of 27; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 846, with a basis of 41. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The situation is neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main iron ore contract has increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the capacity - reduction plan impacts the market. A high - level oscillation mindset is adopted [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory has decreased [6]. - Import is at a loss [6]. - The price of downstream steel products has risen, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Other Catalogs - Other catalogs such as "Iron ore port spot price", "Iron ore futures - spot basis", "Iron ore import profit", "Iron ore shipping volume", "Iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory", "Iron ore arrival and dispatch volume", "Iron ore daily consumption", "Steel enterprise production situation", "Iron ore port daily average transaction and steel mill daily average hot metal" are listed, but no specific content for these catalogs is provided in the given text.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-14 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：中美贸易摩擦或升温；近期沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升 温，供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1148元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1179元/吨，基差为-31元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：宏观利空叠加玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 2、风险点： "反内卷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [6]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turned to inventory accumulation, with an overall inventory increase of around 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month, significantly pressuring market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - PTA: Overnight crude oil tumbled last Friday but rebounded on Monday. PTA futures opened lower and fluctuated on the previous day, with a small decline in the end. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened. There were rumors that the 3 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy Phase 4 was planned to be put into operation in mid - October, and an old device would be temporarily shut down if the new one was commissioned [7]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday. The spot price opened lower and then slightly recovered, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. The overseas market center of ethylene glycol declined, and traders were the main participants in the trading [8]. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the PTA factory inventory was 4.22 days, a 0.47 - day increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [7]. - MEG: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the total inventory in East China was 445,100 tons, a 40,800 - ton increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Factors affecting PTA and MEG: - Bullish factors: Before the holiday, the polyester market had a booming sales under the combined positive effects of increased demand and rising oil prices. The inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the price rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester price remained stable. Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning [9][10]. - Bearish factors: A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China was gradually increasing its production to over 90%, after reducing production around October 7 [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides PTA supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [13]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides ethylene glycol supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. [14]. - Price Data: Shows price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from October 10 to October 13, 2025, as well as basis and profit data [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 program is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently centers around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk point is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views of Different Oils Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8462, with a basis of 194, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9422, with a basis of - 58, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as above, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Subsequently, it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil. The overall assessment is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10228, with a basis of 206, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **利空Factors**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-14 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：中美贸易摩擦或升温；碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于 高位；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1247元/吨，基差为-77元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.98万吨，较前一周增加0.50%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：宏观利空叠加纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期，产量预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cut actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In September, manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the economic climate continued to improve [2]. - The spot price is 85085, with a basis of -35, indicating a discount to the futures price [2]. - On October 13, copper inventories decreased by 50 to 139350 tons, and the SHFE copper inventories increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, and the long positions are increasing [2]. - With the inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining (such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia), the copper price will maintain its strength [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - Fundamental analysis: The supply side is disturbed, while the manufacturing PMI shows improvement, considered neutral [2]. - Basis analysis: Spot price is at a discount to futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory analysis: Copper inventories show mixed trends, considered neutral [2]. - Technical analysis: The closing price and moving average indicate a bullish trend [2]. - Position analysis: The main players' net long position and increasing long positions are bullish [2]. - Expectation: Copper price will remain strong due to inventory and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Global policy easing [3]. -利空: Trade - war escalation [3]. Spot - Information on local middle - prices, price changes, and inventory types and quantities is provided, but specific data is not fully filled in [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the report Exchange Inventory - On October 13, copper inventories decreased by 50 to 139350 tons, and SHFE copper inventories increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the report Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [20]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative candlestick, increasing trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with more long - position reduction. The market may fluctuate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the strong area, while the trend indicator is falling, with the long - position strength decreasing and the short - position strength increasing, and the short - position strength advantage expanding. The Shanghai zinc ZN2511 is expected to fluctuate and weaken [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, which is bullish [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,260, and the basis was +5, which is neutral [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On October 13, LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 37,475 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,030 tons to 59,614 tons compared to the previous day, which is neutral [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On October 13, in the SHFE zinc futures market, different delivery months showed price declines. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,385, the opening price was 22,450, the closing price was 22,255, with a decline of 130, and trading volume was 177,344 lots, and the open interest was 669,101 lots, a decrease of 4,835 lots [3]. 5. Spot Market Quotes - On October 13, in the domestic main spot market, prices of various zinc - related products mostly declined. For example, zinc concentrate in Linzhou decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and zinc ingots in Shanghai decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From September 25 to October 13, 2025, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 135,400 tons to 153,500 tons. Compared with September 29, it increased by 25,100 tons, and compared with October 9, it increased by 17,400 tons [5]. 7. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 13, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 59,614 tons, a decrease of 1,030 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Shanghai decreased by 100 tons to 374 tons, in Guangdong decreased by 176 tons to 34,463 tons, and in Tianjin decreased by 754 tons to 24,255 tons [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On October 13, the LME zinc inventory was 37,475 tons, a decrease of 475 tons compared to the previous day. The注销仓单 was 14,575 tons, accounting for 38.89% [8]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On October 13, in major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate was mostly 17,050 - 17,350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan/ton [9]. 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - On October 13, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters decreased by 100 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,470 yuan/ton, and from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 23,320 yuan/ton [13]. 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production for October is 509,600 tons [15]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On October 13, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions varied. For example, the average processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in the standard area was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 13. SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2511 contract on October 13, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with 60,024 lots, an increase of 7,572 lots. In terms of long - position holdings, CITIC Futures ranked first with 7,036 lots, an increase of 184 lots. In terms of short - position holdings, CITIC Futures ranked first with 13,443 lots, a decrease of 1,634 lots [18].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （10.9 -10.10 ） 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：供应端对市场有一定压力，短线来看国内甲醇或震荡偏弱。内地方面，部分产区甲醇装置近 期陆续恢复，内地甲醇整体开工走高，且长假期间受下游接货有限以及危化品高速公路限运等影响，产区甲 醇工厂库存有一定累积。另外港口延续累库，部分进口货源倒流内地，对局部地区也有一定冲击。但同时下 游和贸易商也有补货需求，刚需需求仍在，或能缓解跌幅。港口方面，节前港口甲醇市场跟随期货窄幅波 动，节后加速下跌。节前华东甲市场方向性缺失，区间波动为主；节中海外货源持续发货，节后库存有所累 积，节后首日市场空头氛围较浓，现货加速下跌。 国内甲醇现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, with prices dropping significantly at the end of the week due to risk events. The prices of NYMEX WTI, Brent, and Shanghai crude oil futures all declined, with weekly drops of 4.17%, 3.53%, and 7.23% respectively. The current fundamental environment of the crude oil market is mainly bearish, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weak [5]. - In the short term, it is recommended to operate within the range of 430 - 465, and take a wait - and - see approach for long - term investment [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Price movements: NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at $57.84 per barrel, down 4.17% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.09 per barrel, down 3.53% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 445 yuan per barrel, down 7.23% for the week [5]. - Supply: OPEC+ will increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from November. The market's concern about potential supply surplus persists, and the increase is in line with October, lower than expected [5]. - Demand: The uncertainty of US - China trade relations and the US government shutdown have increased concerns on the demand side. The threat of "large - scale tariff hikes" on Chinese imports by Trump has further increased the downward pressure on oil prices [5]. - Market sentiment: The net long positions of Brent crude oil futures speculators decreased by 61,713 contracts to 147,400 contracts in the week of October 7. The net long positions of WTI crude oil speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts as of the week of September 23. The data of WTI was suspended due to the government shutdown, and the data of Brent reflected extremely pessimistic market expectations for the future [5]. 3.2 Related News - Citi Group reported that some clients doubt whether the $60 per barrel price floor of Brent crude oil can trigger supply - demand reactions. Some participants expect a more gentle price correction, and there is inventory accumulation in some regions. The slowdown of non - OPEC+ production growth, OPEC+'s policy flexibility, and geopolitical risks are factors affecting price trends [6]. - Bloomberg reported that the benchmark oil price has dropped by about 10% this year, mainly due to the expected supply surplus after OPEC+ gradually cancels production cuts. Currently, the global seaborne crude oil transportation volume is as high as 1.2 billion barrels, the highest level since at least 2016. Asia has been absorbing most of the estimated surplus supply [6]. - The US federal government has been in a "shutdown" for 11 days, and about 4,200 employees in multiple departments are affected. The US Government Employees Union has filed a lawsuit [6]. - A cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip came into effect at noon on the 10th local time [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Geopolitical factors: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas weakens the geopolitical premium and suppresses the willingness to go long. Trump's remarks on China's tariff issues and the escalation of disputes between the two countries have increased concerns about crude oil demand. The US government shutdown has further intensified these concerns. OPEC+ has not shown concern about the recent sharp drop in oil prices, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weak [8]. - Operational suggestions: Short - term operation within the range of 430 - 465, long - term wait - and - see [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot prices: The prices of various types of crude oil such as Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all declined last week, with the decline ranging from 0.57% to 2.12% [11]. - Inventory data: The Cushing inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels to 22.704 million barrels on October 3; the EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels to 420.261 million barrels on October 3 [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC fund net long positions: As of September 23, the net long positions of WTI crude oil speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [5]. - ICE fund net long positions: As of September 23, the net long positions of ICE crude oil decreased by 11,592 contracts to 220,579 contracts [21].