2026-01-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：美国国防部长赫格塞斯周四表示，美国军方将做好准备，执行特朗普总统对伊朗做出的任 何决定，以确保德黑兰不会寻求发展核武器能力；克里姆林宫表示，俄罗斯已重申邀请乌克兰总统泽 连斯基前往莫斯科举行和平会谈。目前，在美国主导下结束这场已持续近四年的乌克兰战争的努力正 在加速；特朗普称与参议院民主党就避免政府关门达成临时协议，为国土安全部提供两周资金，以便 继续谈判；中性 2.基差：1月29日，阿曼原油现货价为66.67美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为66.15美元/桶，基差 20.23元/桶，现货升水 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为22217吨，环比减少1.71%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96590吨，环比增加0.73%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18868 吨，环比增加3.35%。 供给端，2025年12月碳酸锂产量为99200实物吨，预测下月产量为97970实物吨，环比减少1.23%,2025年12月 碳酸锂进口量为23989实物吨，预测下月进口量为22500实物吨，环比减少6.20%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，供需格局转 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30甲醇早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：供需基本面弱势对后期甲醇仍有一定压制，预计本周国内甲醇延续弱势。内地方面，甲醇装置检修量有限， 叠加春节前上游工厂出货诉求明确，另外运力紧张致使运费易涨难跌，多重因素之下，产区甲醇价格或持续承压。销区 市场虽受运费上行带动，到货成本有所抬升，对价格底部形成支撑，但传统下游需求表现平淡，且山东恒通烯烃装置传 出检修计划，进一步弱化需求端支撑，市场利空氛围浓厚，局部行情不排除走跌可能。同时考虑到当前产销区价格已处 于绝对底部空间，成本端的支撑显现，整体跌幅有限。港口方面，一季度海外供应减少和港口库存逐步去库对市场形成 底部支撑，变量因素在于下游开工下降需求减少的程度及中东装置供应减量持续的时间及恢复预期，预计本周港口市场 震荡为主，需求减少 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2605： 2 1.基本面：从成本端来看，整体锰矿成交价格略有回调，但整体成交价格仍处于高位，对硅锰合金价格仍有较强成本支 撑；2026年内蒙地区电价以及南方电价正在验证中。从供应端来看，前期北方主产区新增硅锰炉子点火，普硅硅锰产能增 加，本月相继出铁，供应压力增加。南方合金厂开工率稳定较低，据了解，2026年广西、贵州电费优惠政策力度有待验 证，大多依旧维持避峰生产，存在厂家选择暂时停产，等待1月底的电费结算价格。当前硅锰供应宽松压力仍存。从需求 端来看，河钢集团26年1月硅锰采量17000吨，对比12月采量：14700吨，数量增加；硅锰定价5920元/吨，对比12月硅锰定 价：5770元/吨，定价上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills reducing molten iron production, port inventories increasing, and weak terminal demand. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, the port inventory is increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, the price is below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, and the main contract has a net long position with more long positions added. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mills' molten iron production starts to decrease, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventory is accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2] 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 840, with a basis of 41; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 845, with a basis of 46. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventory is 17,496.53 tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish [2] 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, which is neutral [2] 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main iron ore contract has a net long position with more long positions added, which is bullish [2] 3.6 Market Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing and port inventory is accumulating, so the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [2] 3.7 Factors Analysis 3.7.1 Bullish Factors - Molten iron production remains at a high level [6] - Port inventory decreases [6] - Import is at a loss [6] - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the tolerance for high - priced raw materials is strong [6] 3.7.2 Bearish Factors - Future shipment volume will increase [6] - Terminal demand remains weak [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. The overall supply is expected to be abundant with high production from alkali plants. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory in soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period. The industry's supply-demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and the short - term outlook is mainly for volatile movement [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: High production from alkali plants and expected abundant supply; declining daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass; high inventory in soda ash plants; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,180 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,224 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 44 yuan, indicating futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 154.42 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][32]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2]. - **Main positions**: Net short position of the main players, with short positions decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The expected full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy is postponed [3]. - **Negative factors**: Upcoming resumption of production lines in enterprises and no new maintenance plans, so production is expected to remain high; reduced production of photovoltaic glass, leading to weaker demand for soda ash; the main logic is that supply is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not improved effectively [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,198 yuan/ton to 1,224 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.17%. The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased from 1,150 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.61%. The main basis decreased from - 48 yuan/ton to - 44 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.33% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 168.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 108 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [14]. - **Operating rate and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 86.82%. The weekly output is 77.17 tons, with heavy - quality soda ash production at 41.29 tons, at a historically high level [17][19]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [20]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 99.70% [23]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.07 tons, with an operating rate of 71.62% [26]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 154.42 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [32]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass industry has a weak fundamental situation. With the repair of production profit being sluggish, cold - repairs are increasing, leading to a further contraction in supply. The downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and the inventory is at a historically high level for the same period. The glass market is expected to show a mainly weak and volatile trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1067 yuan/ton to 1087 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase. The spot price of Shahe Safety large plates increased from 932 yuan/ton to 940 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase. The main basis changed from - 135 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton, an 8.89% change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 940 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [12]. Fundamental - Cost Side - No specific content in the provided text about glass production profit other than it being in a low - profit state with further cold - repair expectations [4]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 212, with an operating rate of 71.62%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 150700 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level for the same period [19][21]. Fundamental - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [25][4]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.23% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet for float glass shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2017, the production was 53.54 million tons, the consumption was 52.29 million tons; in 2024E, the production was expected to reach 55.1 million tons, and the consumption was expected to be 53.1 million tons [42].

天胶早报- 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16300，基差-280 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期、中美贸易摩擦 现 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：随着春节临近，聚酯减产幅度扩大，PTA供需趋累。不过近期资金对PTA关注度提升，近两日增仓上涨明显，PTA加工 差改善，PX-PTA供需博弈下，关注后期PTA供应端计划外增量。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围清淡，现货基差变动不大。个别聚酯工厂递盘，2月上在05贴水75~80附 近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在5200~5290。2月底在05贴水68~70有成交。今日主流现货基差在05-78。中性 2、基差：现货5250，05合约基差-82，盘面升水 偏空 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.58天，环比 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货25300，基差-650；偏空。 3、库存：1月29日LME锌库存较上日减少625至109750吨，1月29日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少100吨至28241吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线之 ...