交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%,同比 增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.0326%，环比减少1.14个百分点，全国样 本企业出货22.13万吨，环比减少29.38%,样本企业产量为61.8万吨，环比减少2.98%,样本企业 装置检修量预估为62.5万吨，环比增加1.96%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减 少供给压力。 3 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为34.5%，环比减少0.06个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为82.63%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量35.272万吨，环比增加0.70%,乙 烯法企业产量15.084万吨，环比增加4.06%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少， 预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为39.21%，环比减少8.55个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为15.87%，环比减少23.0个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.83%，环比 减少7.6个百分点，低于历史平均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 is expected to oscillate weakly. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc decline in an oscillating manner, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, but more short - positions being cut. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the strong area, the trend indicator is declining, and the short - side strength is dominant [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 22,270, and the basis was + 50, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On October 14, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 38,600 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,120 tons to 58,494 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (October 15) - For different delivery months, there were various price changes, trading volumes, and position changes. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,285, the opening price was 22,330, the closing price was 22,220, down 65, with a trading volume of 124,307 lots and an open interest of 95,194 lots, a decrease of 6,505 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (October 14) - Zinc concentrate in Binzhou was priced at 17,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc ingot was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet was 3,978 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe was 4,391 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,760 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,520 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 6. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/25 - 2025/10/13) - The total inventory on October 13 was 153,500 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons compared to September 29 and 17,400 tons compared to October 9 [5]. 7. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (October 14) - The total warrant was 58,494 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons. There were different changes in warrants in various regions, such as a decrease of 99 tons in Shanghai and 1,021 tons in Tianjin [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (October 14) - The inventory was 38,600 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons, with registered warrants of 24,200 tons,注销 warrants of 14,400 tons, and a cancellation ratio of 37.31% [7]. 9. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (October 14) - Zinc concentrate with a 50% grade in different regions had prices ranging from 17,060 to 17,360 yuan/ton, all up 10 yuan/ton [9]. 10. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (October 14) - The price of 0 zinc ingots (≥99.995%) from different smelters ranged from 21,910 to 23,330 yuan/ton, mostly up 10 yuan/ton, except for Gansu Baiyin Non - ferrous, which was up 350 yuan/ton [13]. 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production in September was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October was 509,600 tons [15]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (October 14) - For domestic 50% grade zinc concentrate, the processing fees in different regions ranged from 3,000 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and for imported 48% grade, it was 105 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (October 14) - In the zn2511 contract, for trading volume, the total trading volume of 20 members was 204,762 lots, down 78,944 lots; for long positions, the total was 66,347 lots, down 3,046 lots; for short positions, the total was 63,954 lots, down 4,443 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, combined with the delay of new device commissioning, improved the supply - demand outlook. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and it is expected that the port inventory will still rise at the beginning of next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turned to inventory accumulation, with an overall increase of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under obvious pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external and device changes [8]. - Overall: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA** - Fundamental: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined. The spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The trading was mainly among traders. The price negotiation range for October goods was around 4,340 - 4,425, and the current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 82 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,385, and the 01 contract basis is - 55, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened, and the market trading was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol declined, and the buying sentiment was average. The intraday market continued to be weak, with the low - level spot transactions around 4,110 - 4,115 yuan/ton, and the spot basis moderately weakened [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,150, and the 01 contract basis is 89, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons [9]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [8]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity showed an increasing trend, with the production capacity reaching 9.472 billion tons in December 2025. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume also fluctuated. The demand from polyester also showed an upward trend, and the inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed accordingly [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol showed an increasing trend, and the demand from polyester also increased. The port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed over time [15]. 3.5. Impact Factor Summary - **Positive Factors** - Before the holiday, driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarns quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable [10]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, combined with the delay of new device commissioning [11]. - **Negative Factors** - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its production to over 90%, and this device reduced its load around October 7 [12].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，9月份，制造业生产活动加 快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善；中性。 2、基差：现货85940，基差1530，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：10月14日铜库存减550至138800吨，上期所铜库存较上周增14656吨至109690吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价维持强势 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘 ...

证券代码：839979 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8420，基差180，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空增。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 油脂早报 2025-10-15投资咨询部 每日观 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；进口糖 浆及预混粉等三项合计11.55万吨，同比减少15.57万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货58 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-15） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：个别矿点有停、限产等情况，多数大矿仍以正常生产为主。近期部分焦企适当刚需采购， 影响线上竞拍资源成交价格多有上涨。但在一定恐高心态下，煤矿新签订单仍不佳，市场观望增多，考 虑焦企利润偏低，炼焦煤上涨空间较小；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1260，基差106.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：焦钢企业开工维稳，加之终端钢厂铁水维持高位，对原料煤需求尚可。但焦钢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range shock strategy and try shorting on price increases for the 2511 contract [2]. - **不锈钢**: The 2512 contract is expected to operate in a wide - range shock around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Price Information - **镍 and 不锈钢 price overview**: On October 14, the price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830, down 580 from the previous day; the price of London Nickel was 15,105, down 75; the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,565, down 90. Spot prices also generally declined [13]. - **镍 import cost**: The import price was converted to 121,626 yuan/ton [29]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **沪镍 fundamentals**: The external market continued to decline slightly, with strong resistance at the 20 - day moving average. Nickel ore prices were firm, and the rainy season in the Philippines was approaching. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and stainless steel inventories increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the demand for nickel from ternary batteries was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [2]. - **不锈钢 fundamentals**: Spot stainless steel prices fell. In the short term, nickel ore prices and shipping costs were firm, nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and stainless steel inventories increased [4]. 3.3. Basis Analysis - **沪镍 basis**: The spot price was 122,100, and the basis was 1,270, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **不锈钢 basis**: The average stainless steel price was 13,725, and the basis was 1,160, indicating a bullish signal [4]. 3.4. Inventory Analysis - **镍 inventory**: As of October 14, LME inventory was 243,258, an increase of 1,164; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 25,027, a decrease of 245 [2][16]. - **不锈钢 inventory**: As of October 10, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,700 tons. As of October 14, the futures warehouse receipts were 84,497, a decrease of 669 [20][21]. 3.5. Price of Raw Materials - **镍 ore and nickel iron prices**: On October 14, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 947 yuan/nickel point, down 4.5; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 50 [24]. - **不锈钢 production cost**: The traditional cost was 13,027, the scrap steel production cost was 13,237, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,800 [26]. 3.6. Multi - and Short - Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, anti - involution policies, firm ore prices with cost support at 120,000 [7]. - **Bearish factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, a year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading volume [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for the cotton market is bearish, with factors such as expected supply increases, weak export performance, and a bearish trend in the market. However, the positive basis is a bullish factor. The report suggests a short - selling strategy on rallies for the main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for cotton production, consumption, and inventory in the 25/26 season. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts a production and consumption of 2550 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report predicts a production of 2562.2 million tons and consumption of 2587.2 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 244.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China's cotton imports were 7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, while cotton yarn imports were 13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14755, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1490, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 822 million tons in the 25/26 season in October, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is ending, the market is sluggish, and new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing supply expectations. Trump's tariff - increasing remarks have resurfaced, and US cotton continues to decline. The rebound of the main 01 contract is weak, with an expectation of further decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23 million tons; consumption is expected to be 2587.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.4 million tons; ending inventory is expected to be 1592.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.8 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 40 million tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 26 million tons (+1.6%); global trade volume is 970 million tons, an increase of 36 million tons (+3.9%) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 636 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 822 million tons [4][13]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report