交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 | | | | 日捷古报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 现价 现价变动 地区 进口原糖加工后价(50%关税) | | 墓姜 | 进口价差 | 库存情况 | | SR2509 | 5804 | | 316 | | -43 国储库存约700万吨 | | SR2601 | 5666 | | 454 | | 95 讲口智额194.5万吨 | | SR2605 | 0 5761 柳州 5620 | 6120 | 500 | | 2025年6月中国进口食 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-31 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至 历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1192元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1191元/吨，基差为1元，期货 贴水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6189.60万重量箱，较前一周减少4.69%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：政策利好消退，短期预计玻璃震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market presents a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. The overall outlook indicates that cotton has returned to a weak position. The consumption off - season has led to insufficient orders, increased losses for textile enterprises, and reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The delay in Sino - US trade negotiations and the maintenance of the current tariff situation also contribute to the weakening of the cotton market [4]. - There are some positive factors such as the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period, as well as the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. However, negative factors include the approaching 3 - month trade relaxation period, the consumption off - season, the overall decline in foreign trade orders, and the increase in inventory [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. ICAC's July report shows a production of 2590 million tons and consumption of 2560 million tons. USDA's July report indicates a production of 2578.3 million tons, consumption of 2571.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 million tons. China's rural department in July estimates a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,470 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1715 yuan, showing a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: China's Ministry of Agriculture estimates an ending inventory of 823 million tons for the 2025/26 period in July, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is considered a bullish factor [4]. - **Expectations**: Sino - US trade negotiations continue to be postponed, and tariffs remain unchanged for the time being. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen below the 14,000 mark, and cotton has returned to a weak position [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, and the total consumption is 2571.8 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventories. For example, China's production is 675 million tons, and consumption is 794.7 million tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In 2024, the global cotton production is 2568.757 million tons, and the consumption is 2552.675 million tons, with an ending inventory of 1878.09 million tons [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Table (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In 2025/26, the estimated production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and the ending inventory is 823 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton [15]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the content.

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤： 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-31） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：焦炭第四轮涨价落地，焦企利润有所修复，焦企对原料煤继续增库中，加之部分焦化企业提 涨焦炭第五轮，市场继续走强下，焦企目前开工率稳定，对于焦煤采购积极性维持，但考虑终端需求及 利润压制，继续上行空间有限，预计短期焦煤价格或偏强运行。 1、基本面：焦炭第四轮提涨快速落地，焦企盈利水平得到改善，但原料端焦煤价格仍有小幅上涨，焦 企生产成本较高，开工多维持前期状态，暂无明显提产意愿。同时，下游对焦炭需求较好，当前焦企走 货较为顺畅，厂内库存多处低位；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1570，基差-106.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存639万吨，港口库存199.1万吨，独立焦企库存55.6 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年7月31日 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘大幅回落，考验15000一线支撑。现货下游观望情绪升温，成交清淡，主要影响来自反 内卷。产业链上，矿价小幅回落，海运费由于运力不足继续坚挺，镍铁价格有一定启稳，成本线慢慢回 升。不锈钢7、8月是传统消费淡季，本周库存继续回落。新能源汽车产销数据较好，有利于镍的需求提 升。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货123050，基差1330，偏多 3、库存：LME库存208092，+3180，上交所仓单21759，-121，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2509：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 不锈钢 每日观点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, with planned maintenance of some PTA devices in August, the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. Last week, polyester sales volume increased significantly, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories eased. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the macro - commodity atmosphere and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - For MEG, the supply - demand situation in July - August has shifted to a tight balance, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. Under the resonance of supply tightening and a good macro - atmosphere, the short - term price center of MEG will operate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas device recovery [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Affected by Trump's deadline for Russia, overnight oil prices rose further. Today, PTA futures followed the cost side, rising first and then falling, with an overall strong oscillation. However, some mainstream suppliers actively sold goods, and the spot basis weakened. The price negotiation range was around 4830 - 4890 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4858, the 09 - contract basis was 2, and the market was at a discount [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.99 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 days, which was bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net long positions increased, which was bullish [6]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price adjusted widely, and the market negotiation was average. The negotiation center of ethylene glycol at night was around a premium of 61 - 63 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. After the opening in the morning, the price fluctuated widely. After the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated, the buying volume in the market increased, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of around 69 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In the afternoon, affected by the weakening of the commodity market atmosphere, the ethylene glycol market oscillated and declined, and the spot negotiation weakened slightly to a premium of 65 - 68 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4525, the 09 - contract basis was 75, and the market was at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 46.88 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52 tons, which was bullish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short positions decreased, which was bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The arrival of ethylene glycol at the main port last week was concentrated. It is expected that the visible inventory will moderately rebound at the beginning of this week. Attention should be paid to the weather changes and the unloading progress of ships during the week [7]. 3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Positive Factors**: Recently, there have been frequent unexpected events on the ethylene glycol supply side. Several devices in Saudi Arabia unexpectedly shut down due to power problems, involving a production capacity of about 1.7 million tons. The load of a large - scale ethylene glycol producer in Zhejiang has been continuously decreasing. In addition, a 1.25 - million - ton/year cracking device in Lianyungang is planned to be overhauled in August, which may postpone the restart of the ethylene glycol device [8]. - **Negative Factors**: From the demand side, at the end of the rush - export period and during the off - season of domestic demand, the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain [8]. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It details the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, basis, and spread data of bottle chips, PTA, and MEG, as well as the inventory and production profit data of polyester fibers [13][26][61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers [39]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms [50][54]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: It includes the PTA processing fee, MEG production profit, and polyester fiber production profit [58][61].

• LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，6 月PMI为 49.7%，较上月上升 0.2 个百分点，连续三个月位于收缩 区间，6 月财新PMI 为 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点，与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。7月 18日工信部宣布将推动包括石化行业在内的重点行业调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能的稳增长方 案。供需端，农膜淡季，包装膜略有好转，下游需求整体弱势。当前LL交割品现货价7400（+0）， 基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差13，升贴水比例0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.1万吨（-7.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：近期塑料主力合约盘面震荡，宏观稳增长方案推动，农膜需求淡季，下游需求弱， 产业库存中性，预计PE今日走势震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-8522675 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 2、政策带动原料端偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1820 | 0 | 09合约 | 1742 | - 2 | 仓 单 | 2900 | 0 | | 山东现货 | 1820 | 0 | 基 差 | 7 8 | 2 | UR综合库存 | 143 1 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1820 | 0 | UR01 | 1770 | 0 | UR厂家库存 | 113 6 . | 0 0 . | | FOB中国 | 2680 | | UR05 | 1802 | 5 | UR港口库存 | 29 5 . ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22750，基差+80；中性。 6、预期：LME库存仓单继续减少；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2509：震 荡走弱。 7月30日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 回結構 | 今开盘 | 醫學科 | 眼低价 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 近期要闻： 1.中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美国大豆种植天气近期相对良好， 短期美盘冲高回落，预期千点关口上方震荡，未来等待美豆种植和生长情况 以及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续进一步指引。 2.国内进口大豆到港量7月维持高位，油厂豆粕库存7月继续回升，农业 部会议推进饲料配方减少蛋白含量，豆粕冲高回落。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底 回升，技术性震荡整理，七月进口大豆 ...