1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the market has a bearish sentiment due to factors such as over - supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9160 - 9540 [6]. - For polysilicon, although the supply is increasing, the demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. The price is expected to fluctuate between 49545 - 52065 [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some influencing factors such as cost support and production reduction plans [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained sluggish. Polysilicon and organic silicon inventories were at high levels, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was also high [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9160 - 9540 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week. The estimated production in July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase from the previous week, but the inventory increased by 11.54%. The current production was in a loss state. In July, the production scheduling decreased. The battery cell production continued to decrease, and the component production also decreased. However, overall demand showed some recovery but may be weak in the future [10][11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 29, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4305 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease from the previous week, at a high level in the same period of history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main position: The main position was net long, with long positions decreasing [13]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49545 - 52065 [12]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend, with an increase of about 4 - 5% [19]. - Spot price: The prices of some silicon products decreased slightly, while the price of East China organic silicon - used 421 silicon remained unchanged [19]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory increased, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [19]. 3.3 Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend [21]. - Spot price: The prices of most silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [21]. - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased, and the photovoltaic cell export inventory decreased significantly [21]. 3.4 Other Related Content - The report also includes the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization trends, component cost trends, cost - profit trends, and supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, as well as the market trends of organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon downstream industries [23][27][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 3.36 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction, modification, and road modification asphalt, as well as the waterproofing membrane, all have low and mostly decreasing or flat - lined operating rates [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Regarding the basis, on July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory is increasing, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - For the market, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.9204%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points month - on - month. The sample enterprise output was 516000 tons, a decrease of 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 642000 tons, an increase of 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1352000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. Factory inventory is 723000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 16000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of multiple asphalt contracts, as well as the price and change data of different types of asphalt in various regions, and the profit data of asphalt processing and delayed coking [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of the social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [71][72]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The report presents the historical trend of transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction from 2020 to 2025 [83][84]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year completion rate of infrastructure investment from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [92][93]. - **Categorized Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction, modification, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97][99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [101][102].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The short - term optimistic sentiment about oil prices has rebounded, and oil prices are expected to run strongly. In the short term, it will run strongly in the range of 525 - 535, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade negotiations are proceeding smoothly, and both sides intend to extend the sanctions exemption period. Trump has significantly shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement and threatened to impose tariffs [3]. - **Basis**: On July 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.02 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $71.80 per barrel. The basis was 19.95 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending July 18 increased by 0.455 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 22, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, but the number of long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Russia led to a sharp rise in international crude oil futures. Sino - US trade negotiations are in line with market expectations. Short - term oil prices will run strongly in the 525 - 535 range, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict from 50 days to 10 days. If there is no progress, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures in 10 days [5]. - Sino - US officials held "constructive" talks in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce period. Whether to extend it will be decided by Trump [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased, with increases of 2.36, 2.50, 9.20, and 1.72 respectively, and the ranges were 3.40%, 3.75%, 1.82%, and 2.41% respectively [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of crude oil, such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., also increased [9]. 5. Position Data - **API Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels [3][10]. - **EIA Inventory**: The US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels [3][13]. - **WTI and Brent Net Long Positions**: As of July 22, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased [3][15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week; maintenance is expected to decrease next week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7][9] - Current demand may remain sluggish; overall inventory is at a high level [8][9] - PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5140 - 5244 [9] - The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened [9] - The profit of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is still in a loss state, but the loss has decreased; the double - ton spread profit has decreased, but it is higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 338,340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58%, and that of ethylene method enterprises was 113,190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32%. Maintenance is expected to decrease next week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7] - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream profiles was 38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream pipes was 32.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream films was 77%, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream paste resin was 76.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are bearish, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain sluggish [8] - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 133.62 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 57.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 505.79 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,883.45 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Production scheduling may increase [8] - **Inventory**: On July 29, the factory inventory was 357,065 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.84%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 277,865 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.71%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 79,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29%. The social inventory was 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.89%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% [10] - **Base Spread**: On July 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 5,240 yuan/ton, and the base spread of the 09 contract was 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10] - **Market Outlook**: PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5140 - 5244 [9] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, start - up rates, and profits of different types of PVC [16] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Spread Trend**: Displays the historical trend chart of PVC base spread [18] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Displays the price, trading volume, and open interest trends of PVC futures in June - July 2025 [22] - **Spread Analysis**: Displays the historical trend chart of the spread of PVC futures main contracts [24] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [27][30][32][34] - **Supply Trend**: Displays the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [39][40][42] - **Demand Trend**: Includes the trading volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rate, and related data of the real estate and infrastructure markets [44][46][53][56] - **Inventory**: Displays the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [58] - **Ethylene Method**: Includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads [60] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the monthly supply - demand data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the range of 2660 - 2720. The price of rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded, driven by the trend of soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operating rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not high, so the market will maintain a range oscillation in the short term. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive for rapeseed meal, but the positive effect may be limited as no additional tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports [9]. - In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, rapeseed meal prices will return to the range oscillation in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the range of 2660 - 2720. The analysis from multiple aspects shows a neutral view, with some factors being bullish and others bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The future result is uncertain and may depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the reduction of rapeseed output in the EU and the lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The reduction of rapeseed output in Ukraine and the increase in Russia offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the inventory pressure of oil mill rapeseed meal is not high [12]. - **Bearish factors**: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June; the result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Base difference**: The spot price is 2560, and the base difference is - 100, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 15,100 tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year compared with 34,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [25]. - **Domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, data on initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [26]. - **Imported rapeseed**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. - **Oil mill inventory**: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained at a low level [29]. - **Oil mill processing volume**: The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills increased slightly [31]. - **Aquatic products**: The price of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [39]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position has changed from short to long, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - Data on the trading average price, trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 18 - 29 are provided [14]. - Data on rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509, far - month contract 2601) and spot prices from July 21 - 29 are provided [16]. - Data on rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from July 18 - 29 are provided [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, predicting that the methanol price will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade between 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port market may see inventory accumulation, which could limit price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For the MA2509 contract, the fundamentals show that the "anti - involution" reform of coal may support the methanol futures and spot prices in ports, but potential inventory accumulation could limit the increase. Inland, the market is in a state of low supply and demand, with prices expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The basis indicates that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures. Inventory data shows a decrease in social inventory in East and South China ports. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some domestic devices are shut down, the methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and there is external procurement demand from CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed operation, there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, the MTBE operation rate has decreased significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factory inventories in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and futures prices**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed slightly, with the futures closing price rising by 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 220 to 9834, and the effective forecast remained at 0 [8]. - **Price differences**: The basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton, and the import price difference decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton. The price differences between regions such as Jiangsu - Shandong and Jiangsu - Hebei have increased [8]. - **Operation rate**: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports decreased by 2.93 million tons to 41.67 million tons, while that in South China ports increased by 2.04 million tons to 17.04 million tons [8]. - **Profit of production processes**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 290 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 334 yuan/ton to 479 yuan/ton [20]. - **External market prices**: The CFR China price increased by 2.56% to 280 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.91% to 333.5 US dollars/ton, and the price difference increased by 4 US dollars/ton to - 53.5 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Prices of traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [29]. - **Production profit and load of downstream products**: The production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 182 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42%. The production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 353 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88%. The production profit of acetic acid increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42%. The production profit of MTO increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 996 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [33][36][40][45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and production losses [56]. - **Foreign methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of resuming operation, while some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have planned shutdowns [57]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, and other regions are under maintenance or operating stably, with different operating conditions and maintenance plans [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,400 - 72,280 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,630 tons, 53% higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the output in the next month will increase to 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,878 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen in the next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 69,611 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.47%, with a production profit of 2,489 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 77,138 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.59%, with a production loss of 6,968 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Market Indicators**: On July 29, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average level. The MA20 of the market trend is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of changes, such as a 1.61% increase in the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, a 1.73% increase in the price of (electric - industrial) lithium carbonate, and a 0.44% increase in the price of micronized lithium hydroxide [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On the supply side, the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.80%, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. On the demand side, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09%, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain trend of change over time, and the production of lithium ore in China's sample spodumene mines and the total output of domestic lepidolite also showed different trends in different years [24]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed over time [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in short supply and some months in surplus [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends. The monthly output and monthly capacity of lithium carbonate also changed over time [30]. - **Import and Recycling**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the monthly recycling volume of waste lithium - ion batteries also showed different trends [30][31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide, the monthly operating rate from different sources (causticization and smelting), and the production volume showed different trends [37]. - **Export Volume**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide in China from 2019 to 2025 showed different trends [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials, etc.) showed different trends over time [43][46]. - **Processing and Purification Profit**: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained and micronized) and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also showed different trends [46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelters and downstream) also showed different trends [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Output**: The price of batteries, the monthly output of battery cells, the monthly power battery loading volume, and the monthly power battery cell shipment volume showed different trends [55]. - **Battery Export and Inventory**: The export volume of lithium batteries and the inventory of battery cells also showed different trends [55][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursors, the cost - profit of 523 (polycrystalline/consumer) ternary precursors, and the processing fee showed different trends [61]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors and the capacity utilization rate also showed different trends [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some months in short supply [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, and the processing fee showed different trends [67][69]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production volume, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [67][69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, and the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [71]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly output, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [74][76]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles in the Passenger Car Association and the monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index also showed different trends [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated weakly following the cost side. The news of a 7.2 million - ton PTA device in East China reducing its load provided some support, narrowing the decline in the futures market. The spot market remained quiet with a weak spot basis. In August, some PTA devices are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. Last week, polyester sales volume increased significantly, alleviating the inventory pressure of polyester factories. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated upwards at a low level. The night - session opened lower and adjusted, with weak buying interest. The supply side of ethylene glycol has experienced frequent unexpected events recently, and the supply - demand situation in July - August has shifted to a tight balance, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. Under the resonance of supply tightening and a good macro - atmosphere, the short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to move upwards. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of overseas devices [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day's Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) No relevant content provided. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **PTA** - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, production, import, export, and inventory [11]. - **Spot price and basis**: The spot price is 4830, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 8, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.99 days, a 0.13 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing, still showing a bullish tendency [6]. - **MEG** - **Supply - demand balance**: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, import, consumption, and port inventory [12]. - **Spot price and basis**: The spot price is 4518, and the basis of the 09 contract is 51, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 46.88 tons, a 2.52 - ton decrease compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [8]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor. The net short position of the main contract is increasing, showing a bearish tendency [7][8]. - **Influencing factors** - **Bullish factors**: Recently, there have been frequent unexpected events on the ethylene glycol supply side, including the unexpected shutdown of several devices in Saudi Arabia due to power issues (with a total capacity of about 1.7 million tons), the continuous decline in the load of a large - scale ethylene glycol producer in Zhejiang, and the planned maintenance of a 1.25 - million - ton/year cracking device in Lianyungang in August, which may postpone the restart of its 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device [9]. - **Bearish factors**: On the demand side, at the end of the rush - to - export period and during the off - season of domestic demand, the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain [9]. 5.价格 (Prices) The report presents various price - related charts and data, including bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory levels, and price spreads between different contracts and products such as PTA and MEG, as well as the processing spreads of p - xylene [14][17][21]. 6.库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) The report provides inventory data and charts of various products, including PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving mills [40][41][43]. 7.聚酯上游开工 (Polyester Upstream Operation) The report shows the operation rate data and charts of polyester upstream products, including the operation rates of refined terephthalic acid, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [51][52][54]. 8.聚酯下游开工 (Polyester Downstream Operation) The report presents the operation rate data and charts of polyester downstream products, including the operation rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving mills in the PTA industry chain [55][56][58]. 9.加工费与利润 (Processing Fees and Profits) - **PTA**: The report shows the PTA processing fee data and chart [59][60]. - **MEG**: The report presents the production margin data and charts of ethylene glycol produced by different methods, such as methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based methods [62][63]. - **Polyester fibers**: The report shows the production margin data and charts of polyester short - fibers and different types of polyester long - fibers (DTY, POY, FDY) [65][67][68].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月30日 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1、基本面：特朗普确定对俄罗斯最后通牒新期限，内盘期货多数上涨，金价回升； 美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年 期跌8.75个基点报4.322%；美元指数涨0.27%报98.92，离岸人民币对美小幅升值报 7.1808；COMEX黄金期货涨0.46%报3325.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货771.44，现货767.58，基差-3.86，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单30258千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注美联储议息决议和鲍威尔讲话、美国7月ADP、欧元区二季度 GDP。特朗 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-30 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪仍存；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至 历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1204元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1188元/吨，基差为16元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6189.60万重量箱，较前一周减少4.69%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：政策利好仍存，短期预计玻璃震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利 ...