Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Tensions in Sino - US relations have affected US soybean exports and pressured prices. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. Overall, the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content A. Daily Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current shipping survey data shows a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month, and the subsequent production - reduction season will ease supply pressure [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 382, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but the subsequent period is the production - increase season, so palm oil supply will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,540, with a basis of 28, indicating a slightly higher spot price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamentals: Similar to palm oil, with an expected increase in palm oil supply in the subsequent production - increase season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,820, with a basis of 780, indicating a significantly higher spot price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4]. B. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also a "palm oil tremor season" (the specific meaning of this term is not clear from the report) [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rebar, considering factors such as weak demand, low - rising inventory, and the downward cycle of the real estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, due to factors like inventory increase, export obstacles, and the plan of domestic capacity reduction, it should also be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The real estate industry is still in a downward cycle, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3300, and the basis is 170, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 2.9419 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the rebar main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Production remains at a low level, and the spot premium promotes domestic consumption [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak, lower than the same period [4]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, which is neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3280, and the basis is - 7, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.967 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the hot - rolled coil main contract is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [7]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Demand is acceptable, and the spot premium promotes domestic consumption [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Downstream demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the zinc market shows a mix of positive and negative factors, with the short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2602 expected to be a volatile decline. The market has supply shortages, positive factors in basis, inventory reduction, and favorable technical indicators, but the main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions [2][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1193,500 tons, consumption was 1,229,200 tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc plate production was 10,363,200 tons, consumption was 10,736,900 tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1,163,300 tons, and from January to September, it was 9,964,700 tons [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price was 23,540, with a basis of +285, indicating a positive situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On December 29, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 325 tons to 106,550 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,091 tons to 40,984 tons [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upward. The short - term view is that the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ rose, running at the strength demarcation point; the trend indicator declined, with the bullish power rising, the bearish power falling, and the advantage of the bullish power expanding [2][18]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main positions were net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a negative situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on December 29 - The trading volume of zinc futures on December 29 was 385,770 lots, with a trading value of 4,484,419,620 yuan. The open interest was 197,429 lots, a decrease of 2,988 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on December 29 - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 23,490 - 23,590 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 260 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 23,290 - 23,390 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 230 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 23,340 - 23,440 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 235 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 225 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (December 18 - December 29, 2025) - The total inventory on December 29 was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons compared to December 22 and a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to December 25 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Warrant Report on December 29 - The total zinc warrants on December 29 were 40,984 tons, a decrease of 1,091 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on December 29 - The total LME zinc inventory was 106,650 tons, a decrease of 325 tons compared to the previous day [8]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on December 29 - The price of 50% grade zinc concentrate in most regions increased by 310 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions ranging from 19,770 - 20,370 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on December 29 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from various manufacturers increased by 240 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 23,150 - 24,150 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in November 2025 - The actual production in November 2025 was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%, a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, and a decrease of 4.93% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 69.45%, and the planned production in December was 477,500 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on December 29 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton in most regions, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 40 - 60 dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on December 29 - The total trading volume of members was 393,551 lots, an increase of 159,115 lots. The total long positions were 63,133 lots, a decrease of 53 lots, and the total short positions were 67,593 lots, a decrease of 2,164 lots [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high for the same period [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1057 yuan/ton to 1051 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.57%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate remained at 920 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 137 yuan/ton to - 131 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.38% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Cost Side of Fundamentals - No specific content on glass production profit is provided except for the title. Supply Side of Fundamentals - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 218, with an operating rate of 73.89%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass is 154,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [22][24]. Demand Side of Fundamentals - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, and the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [28][4]. Inventory Side of Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.623 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.11% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [44]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the market situation is neutral. Recently, there have been many changes in PTA devices, but the downstream polyester load has also decreased. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself has not changed much. The futures price has rapidly declined following the cost side. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price of PTA will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and the changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, the market situation is also neutral in the short - term. From January to February, MEG shows obvious seasonal inventory accumulation. The visible inventory is continuously piling up. In the long - term, starting from March, the supply - demand structure will improve with the implementation of the spring maintenance of coal - chemical plants and the maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical. The overseas supply of MEG will be further reduced and will gradually be reflected in the import volume starting from February. However, the transmission in the polyester industry chain is not smooth, and the terminal demand is weak, and the production cuts of polyester plants will be gradually implemented. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be range - bound in the near future, with certain buying support at low levels [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 (Previous Day's Review) - Not provided in the content 3.2每日提示 (Daily Tips) - Not provided in the content 3.3今日关注 (Today's Focus) - Not provided in the content 3.4基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) 3.4.1 PTA - **Price**: The spot price was 5070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 52 yuan/ton, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The trading range of the spot price was 5020 - 5105 yuan/ton, and the current mainstream spot basis was 05 - 63 [5][6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The PTA supply - demand balance table from 2024 to 2025 shows the changes in PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory. For example, in December 2025, the PTA production capacity was 9472, the load was 85.00%, the output was 684, and the total demand was 666 [11]. 3.4.2 MEG - **Price**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) was narrowly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. The spot price was 3683 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 134 yuan/ton, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The overseas price of MEG was stable, with the negotiation price of recent arrival shipments at 442 - 445 US dollars/ton and that of shipments from late January to early February at 444 - 448 US dollars/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The MEG supply - demand balance table from 2024 to 2025 shows the changes in MEG output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory. For example, in December 2025, the total supply of MEG was 252, and the total consumption was 247 [12]. 3.4.3 Other Data - **Price Changes**: The price data table shows the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene (PX), PTA, MEG, and polyester products from December 26 to December 29, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.500 to 584.500 US dollars/ton, and the price of CCFEI price index: PTA (domestic) decreased from 5160 to 5060 yuan/ton [13]. - **Profit**: The profit data table shows the profit changes of products such as PTA processing, MEG production from different raw materials (naphtha, ethylene, methanol, coal), and polyester products. For example, the PTA processing fee increased from 439.48 to 525.55 yuan/ton [13].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳。供需端，农膜需 求收缩订单偏弱，包装膜需求一般订单回落。当前LL交割品现货价6330（+80），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-123，升贴水比例-1.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.1万吨（-3.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面偏弱，基本面供过于求，产业库存中性，下游需求转淡，预计PE 今日走势震荡 交易 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, with short - term export demand falling. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and de - stocking is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demand is based on needs. The opening rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable, and reserve demand has declined. The short - term export demand has fallen, and the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 35, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.1%, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea will fluctuate. Industrial demand is based on needs, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand is falling, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factor is inventory de - stocking; negative factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1700 (-10), Shandong spot is 1710 (-20), Henan spot is 1700 (0), and FOB China is 2732 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 05 contract is 1735 (0), UR01 is 1667 (0), UR05 is 1735 (0), and UR09 is 1701 (0). The basis is - 35 (-10) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 10750 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 106.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 17.7 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show certain trends of change. For example, in 2019, the production capacity growth rate was 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9].

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年12月22日-12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周05合约为上涨态势，周一开盘价为109000元/吨，周五收盘价为130520元/吨，周涨幅为19.74%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为22161吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13864吨，环比增加 0.43%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2866吨，环比增加1.42%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产3075吨， 环比减少0.64%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2356吨，环比增加1.55%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年11月碳酸锂需求量为133451实物吨，环比增加5.11%,预测下月需求量为13041 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8,685 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 8,880 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.25%. Supply is expected to decrease in production scheduling next week but remain at a high level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected that the market will experience a bearish and volatile adjustment. [4][5] - For polysilicon, the 05 contract showed a downward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 60,000 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 58,955 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.74%. Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected that the market will experience a neutral and volatile adjustment next week. [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 05 contract rose from 8,685 yuan/ton to 8,880 yuan/ton, a 2.25% increase. [4] - **Supply**: This week's supply was 87,000 tons, a 1.13% decrease from the previous week. Sample enterprise production was 45,700 tons, a 0.02% decrease. Different regions had varying changes in production rates. [4] - **Demand**: This week's demand was 77,000 tons, a 4.93% decrease. Demand in various downstream sectors was generally weak. [5] - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support increased during the dry season. [5] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 555,000 tons, a 0.36% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 195,600 tons, a 1.61% increase; and major port inventory was 140,000 tons, a 1.45% increase. [5] - **Outlook**: Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease next week, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The market is expected to be bearish and volatile. [5] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: The 05 contract fell from 60,000 yuan/ton to 58,955 yuan/ton, a 1.74% decline. [7] - **Supply**: Last week's production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase. The predicted December production scheduling is 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month. [7] - **Demand**: Downstream production in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally decreasing. [7] - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,800 yuan/ton. [7] - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase, at a historically high level. [8] - **Outlook**: Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term, demand continues to decline, and cost support remains stable. The market is expected to be neutral and volatile. [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Shows the trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc. [14][15] - **Inventory**: Displays the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and in total, including sample enterprises, ports, and registered warrants. [17][18][19] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Presents the production trends of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production by specification, as well as the capacity utilization and production rate trends. [21][22][23] - **Cost**: Analyzes the cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang. [28][29][30] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance. [33][34][37] - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products. [39][40][41] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Covers the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the automotive and wheel hub sectors. [51][52][56] - **Polysilicon**: Analyzes the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories. [59][60][62] 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to be bearish and volatile next week. [83] - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 05 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a narrow - range and volatile adjustment next week. [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, nickel prices rose significantly due to concerns about raw material supply caused by Indonesia's quota issue. Some production capacities have recently cut production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices partially dropped slightly, shipping freight decreased, and ore inventory was at a high level. With the arrival of the rainy season, ore supply decreased, and mines held firm on prices. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventory declined and was short - term affected by nickel prices. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel market is expected to maintain a supply - surplus pattern dominated by Indonesia's low - cost production capacity in the long - term. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity at low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is strong. Short - sellers should wait and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box range [8][9]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel market will operate with a slight upward trend. Short - sellers should wait for the moment [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes | Product | This Week | Last Week | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% | 54 | 54 | 0.00% | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% | 47 | 48 | - 2.08% | | Battery - grade nickel sulfate | 26350 | 26350 | 0.00% | | Electro - plating grade nickel sulfate | 29750 | 29750 | 0.00% | | Low - nickel iron (Shandong) | 3300 | 3300 | 0.00% | | High - nickel iron (Shandong) (yuan/nickel point) | 910 | 895 | 1.68% | | Shanghai electrolytic nickel | 134550 | 123850 | 8.64% | | Shanghai Russian nickel | 127400 | 117600 | 8.33% | | Jinchuan ex - factory price | 133200 | 123600 | 7.77% | | 304 stainless steel | 13600 | 13437.5 | 1.21% | [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market - Some nickel ore prices dropped by 1 US dollar/wet ton this week, and shipping freight decreased by 1.5 US dollars/wet ton. - As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. - In November 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. From January to November 2025, the total nickel ore imports were 40.2704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.10%. - Nickel ore transactions were fair this week. With the arrival of the rainy season, mine shipments decreased significantly, and there was an expectation of rising ore prices. The rebound in downstream nickel iron prices eased the pressure on ore price reduction [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market - Nickel prices rose significantly this week, and downstream buyers were highly cautious. Some producers cut production, and imported supplies were tight, causing the spot premium to rise. The import window opened this week, and traders locked in prices. - In the long - and medium - term, the global nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide support. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 381,727 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 27.34%. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,929 tons or 30.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 3,676 tons or 40.86%. Exports were 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,741 tons or 20.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 87 tons or 0.80%. - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 826 tons to 44,454 tons [22][25][26][29][32][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - According to MySteel data, low - nickel iron prices remained flat at 3,300 yuan/ton, and high - nickel iron prices rose by 15 yuan/nickel to 910 yuan/nickel. - In November 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. - In November 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13,000 tons or 1.4%. From January to November 2025, the total imports were 10.153 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.171 million tons or 27.2%. - In November, the negotiable nickel iron inventory was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [43][44][46][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market - The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four regions) rose by 162.5 yuan/ton this week. - In November, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, of which the production of 200 - series was 1.042 million tons, 400 - series was 689,400 tons, and 300 - series was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. - The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. - As of December 26, the inventory in Wuxi was 570,900 tons, in Foshan was 283,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,000 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 631,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons [57][58][61][64][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the market share of new energy vehicles in total new vehicle sales reached 53.2%. - In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries in Chinese battery factories was 193 GWh. The total production of power + energy - storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rose significantly and moved away from the 20 - day moving average. In terms of positions, the long - side force was strong, and the position - increasing force was large, indicating a short - term strong trend. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. Short - sellers should wait and see if the previous top provides effective support. If the price falls back to the previous box range, they can consider short - selling [79]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel ore**: Neutral to strong. Transactions were fair, and concerns about reduced raw material supply due to Indonesia's quota issue [82]. - **Nickel iron**: Neutral. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line moved up [82]. - **Refined nickel**: Neutral. Short - term production cuts reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remained, and inventory was at a high level [82]. - **Stainless steel**: Neutral. Inventory declined, and costs increased [82]. - **New energy**: Neutral. Production data was good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continued [82].