1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level for the same period [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 964 yuan/ton to 956 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards remained unchanged at 968 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 4 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton, a rise of 200.00% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 968 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Not provided with specific analysis content other than mentioning glass production profit. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with production capacity at a historically low level for the same period [25][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 470.82 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [30][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.227 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [43]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 - 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different growth and decline trends. For example, in 2021, production increased by 9.88% and consumption increased by 6.87%. In 2024E, production is expected to increase by 3.94% and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.15% [44]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - Gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from deep - processing enterprises; poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry and cautious attitudes among traders and processors [5]. Main Logic - The glass supply is stabilizing at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are dismal, and the glass factory inventory is rising. It is expected that glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The production of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, with abundant overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level compared to the same period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1103 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1100 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis was - 3 yuan/ton, down 150.00% from the previous value [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 220 yuan/ton [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.74%. The weekly output was 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [17][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 108.16% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, and the operating rate was 74.85% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 149.43 tons, a decrease of 2.88% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E showed fluctuations. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转。供需端，农 膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6570（-10）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差12，升贴水比例0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.8万吨（+1.1），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The supply - demand pattern of PTA has not changed significantly recently. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, and the spot basis fluctuates within a range. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream demand [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has risen to around 820,000 tons, reaching a high for the year. The arrival at the main port this week is moderately high, and with some domestic - trade trucks delivering into the tank, the short - term explicit inventory of ethylene glycol will still accumulate moderately. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol in December is neutral, but there is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long term, and the market sentiment is mainly under pressure. As the delivery period approaches, the market will gradually limit positions, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will operate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the equipment at low prices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the document. 3.2每日提示 - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis slightly strengthened. Polyester factories mainly replenished their stocks. The main - port goods in December were negotiated and traded at a discount of around 20 to the 01 contract, with sporadic transactions at a discount of 23 - 25 to the 01 contract. The warehouse receipts this week were traded at a discount of 26 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was between 4,600 and 4,680. Today, the mainstream spot basis is 01 - 21. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract has increased [5][6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. In the night session, ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined. The spot negotiation was around a discount of 5 - 18 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated weakly, and the buying interest in the market was average. The spot negotiation for this week and next week was around a discount of 7 - 20 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the market dropped rapidly, and the low - level spot was traded at around 3,576 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market declined during the day. In the morning, the negotiation for recent shipments was around 434 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation for shipments from the end of December to early January was around 437 - 438 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the negotiation center dropped rapidly, and at the end of the session, the recent shipments were traded at around 424 US dollars/ton, and the shipments from the end of December to early January were traded at around 429 US dollars/ton. There were appropriate traders participating in buying during the day. The inventory in the East China region is 758,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract has increased [7]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the document. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in inventory and the supply - demand gap [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in port inventory and the supply - demand gap [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, paraxylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers from December 10 to December 11, 2025, as well as the changes in basis and processing fees [13]. 3.5 PTA每日观点 - Fundamental analysis: The futures market fluctuated and closed higher, the spot basis slightly strengthened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract has increased. - Expectation: The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly recently. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream demand [5][6]. 3.6 MEG每日观点 - Fundamental analysis: The price center declined weakly, the inventory increased, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract has increased. - Expectation: The port inventory has reached a high for the year. There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long term. It is expected to operate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the equipment at low prices [7]. 3.7影响因素总结 - **Likely to be Bullish**: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of around 10 days [8][9]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted with temperature rise. The plant was shut down for a short - term maintenance at the end of November [9]. 3.8 当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [10].

Report Information - Report Name: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined due to the shutdown of some western plants, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly increased year - on - year, and the winter storage demand is strong, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate weakly today [5]. Summary by Section Urea Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: Current daily production and operating rate have a slight decline. The comprehensive inventory has decreased, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demands are on - demand, the compound fertilizer operating rate has increased year - on - year, and winter storage demand is strong. The domestic market is still oversupplied [5]. - **Base Spread**: The base spread of the UR2601 contract is 52, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.1%, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.396 million tons (- 68,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is weakly declining. Industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [5]. Urea Overview - **Positive Factors**: Inventory de - stocking [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply and continuous new high in daily production [6]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1710 (+ 10), the Henan spot price is 1690 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2763 [7]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1638 (- 7), the base spread is 52 (+ 7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1703 (- 10), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1716 (- 5) [7]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 11,652 (+ 424), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.396 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.291 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 105,000 tons [7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are bearish, with supply remaining high despite a reduction in production scheduling, and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,350 for the 2605 contract [6]. - Bullish factors include rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. Bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic lies in capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [14][15]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish. Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline as wafer production, cell production, and component production all continue to decrease. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55,035 - 56,795 for the 2605 contract [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, a 3.29% decrease from the previous week. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 72,000 tons, a 12.19% decrease from the previous week, with demand remaining low. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season. - Basis: On December 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 945 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 1.45% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 182,500 tons, a 1.61% increase; the main port inventory was 131,000 tons, a 1.55% increase [6]. - Market trend: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, a 7.50% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer production was 11.95GW, a 0.58% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 213,000 tons, a 9.23% increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.07GW, a 4.72% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is in a profit state [11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,700 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,300 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis: On December 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,300 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market trend: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [12]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline compared to the previous day, with the decline rate ranging from 1.08% to 2.08%. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase compared to the previous day, with the increase rate ranging from 10.47% to 109.67%. - Other indicators: The registered warehouse receipt number was 7,780, a 3.35% increase from the previous day. The weekly DMC production was 49,200 tons, with no change from the previous day. The daily capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, with no change. The daily DMC price was 13,600 yuan/ton, with no change [18]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: Some contracts showed an increase, and some showed a decrease compared to the previous day, with the change rate ranging from - 0.71% to 0.55%. - Basis: The change in the basis of each contract was different, with the change rate ranging from - 10.00% to 9.21%. - Other indicators: The daily prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.56% increase from the previous week [20]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report presents the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon from 2019 - 2025, as well as the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprises, and the number of registered warehouse receipts from 2018 - 2025 [23][29]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the price trends of the polysilicon market from 2025, including the main contract price, basis, and inventory trends [26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - Production: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production trends by specification from 2023 - 2025, and the production capacity utilization rate trends of different regions [33]. - Cost: It presents the cost - profit trends of sample regions (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang) from 2022 - 2025 [40]. Polysilicon - The report shows the cost trends of the polysilicon industry from 2023 - 2025, including the price trends of different types of polysilicon, inventory, monthly production, monthly demand, and monthly capacity utilization rate [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - Weekly supply - demand balance: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 - 2025, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance. - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and balance [42][45]. Polysilicon - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [71]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - DMC price and production: It shows the DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, weekly production trends, and price trends from 2019 - 2025. - Downstream product prices: It shows the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 from 2022 - 2025. - Import - export and inventory: It shows the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC from 2019 - 2025 [48][50][54]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: It shows the waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit trends from 2019 - 2025. - Inventory and production: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly production start rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory trends of aluminum alloy ingots from 2019 - 2025. - Demand: It shows the monthly production and sales volume trends of automobiles and the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels from 2018 - 2025 [58][61][63]. Polysilicon Downstream - Wafer: It shows the price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of wafers from 2021 - 2025. - Cell: It shows the price, production scheduling and actual production, weekly inventory, production start rate, and export trends of cells from 2022 - 2025. - Photovoltaic component: It shows the price, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components from 2021 - 2025. - Photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price trends of photovoltaic coatings, import - export trends of photovoltaic films and glass, monthly production trends of photovoltaic glass, and import - export trends of welding strips from 2021 - 2025. - Component cost - profit: It shows the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components, including silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit from 2024 - 2025. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation from 2019 - 2025 [74][77][80].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-11原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2601： 1.基本面：美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次；美国总统特朗普表 示，美国在委内瑞拉沿海扣押了一艘油轮。此举加剧了美国与加拉加斯的紧张关系，同时也推高了油 价；美国总统特朗普表示，美联储最新决定将基准利率下调25个基点，其降息幅度本"至少该翻 倍"；中性 2.基差：12月10日，阿曼原油现货价为62.48美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为61.73美元/桶，基差 27.55元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至12月5日当周API原油库存减少477.9万桶，预期减少175万桶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1 Bean Meal - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with the basis being positive, inventory increasing, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions decreasing and funds flowing out. In the short - term, it may show a weak oscillation pattern due to factors like the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases from the US and the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. 2.2 Soybean - Soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4100 - 4200. The market is neutral, with a negative basis, increasing inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions increasing and funds flowing out. The domestic soybean price is affected by the execution of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The domestic arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level. The reduction of domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for bean meal in November [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remained relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Transaction Data - From December 2 to December 10, the trading volume of bean meal fluctuated, and the price also showed slight fluctuations. During this period, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, and only on December 10, 0.6 tons were traded. The average price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17]. 3.4.2 Price Data - From December 3 to December 10, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures fluctuated. The prices of soybean and bean meal spot were relatively stable, with bean meal futures oscillating downward and the spot discount narrowing slightly [19][24]. 3.4.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - From December 1 to December 10, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and bean meal had different degrees of changes. For example, the bean - 1 warehouse receipts increased from 15,645 to 16,664, and the bean - 2 warehouse receipts changed from 4900 to 7100. The bean - meal warehouse receipts increased from 9450 to 23,830 and then remained stable [21]. 3.4.4 Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed to varying degrees, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 3.4.5 Sowing and Harvesting Progress - **2023/24 Argentina**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2023/24 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. Generally, the sowing progress was slightly faster than the same period last year but slightly slower than the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [35]. - **2024 US**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024 were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall sowing and growth progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [36][37][39]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting and harvesting progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average [40][41]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting progress was slightly faster than the same period last year and close to the five - year average [42]. - **2025 US**: The harvesting progress of soybeans on September 21 was 9% [43]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: As of November 29, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 86%, compared with 90% in the same period last year and 84.4% of the five - year average [44]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: As of November 26, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 36%, compared with 37% in the same period last year and 45% of the five - year average [45]. 3.4.6 USDA Supply - Demand Report - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean export, and crushing volume of US soybeans changed to varying degrees. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans in November was 1.75 billion tons, and that of Argentine soybeans was 0.485 billion tons [46]. 3.4.7 Other Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year as a whole. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the bean - meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fell to a low level, and the stocking demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the bean - meal output in September increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and rebounded following the US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [47][49][50]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a tight balance, and the market is subject to emotional fluctuations triggered by news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,240 - 95,920 [8][9][13]. - On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, and it is predicted that the production in December 2025 will be 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November 2025 was 25,500 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in December will be 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%. [8][9] - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% month - on - month, and that of ternary materials decreased by 2.68% month - on - month. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month and the inventory will be reduced [8][9]. - In terms of cost, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased month - on - month, but was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained unchanged day - on - day, and production was at a loss. The cost of the salt lake end was low, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, up 0.33% month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises decreased. In November 2025, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, and it is predicted to be 98,210 tons in December, up 3.00% month - on - month. The import volume was 25,500 tons, and it is expected to be 27,000 tons in December, up 5.88% month - on - month. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 94,487 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 3,883 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 93,100 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 4,675 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [10]. - **Market Indicators**: The fundamental situation is neutral; on December 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 2.04% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, and the situation is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end, with a limited decline range. The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [11][12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price Data**: The prices of lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium salts generally increased, while the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.05% [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate and other products showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase from the previous month [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly production of ternary materials also increased. The monthly power battery loading volume increased, and the sales volume and export volume of new energy vehicles also increased [20]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.04% month - on - month, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 14.62% and the downstream inventory increasing by 4.08%. The inventory of ternary materials decreased by 2.68% [10][20].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 3 3、库存: 社会库存为74.5万吨，环比减少3.74%，厂内库存为58.8万吨，环比增加1.20%，港口稀释沥青库存 为库存为67万吨，环比增加17.54%。社会库存持续去库，厂内库存持续累库，港口库存持续累库。 中性。 4、盘面: MA20向下，02合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 每日观点 利多：原油成本相对高位，略有支撑。 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本 ...