交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转。供需端，农 膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6640（-10）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差30，升贴水比例0.5%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant with high production from alkali plants and the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the year. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. The basis shows futures premium over spot, the price is below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line pointing downwards, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing. Overall, the short - term outlook is bearish [2]. Influencing Factors - **Likely Factors**: Equipment problems lead to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1120 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% from the previous value. The main basis is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.22% from the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1120 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method is - 220 yuan/ton, both at historical lows [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.74%. The weekly production of soda ash is 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual commissioning of 100 tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 153.86 tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: On the eve of the Fed's interest - rate decision, the number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased, and risk appetite decreased, causing the gold price to rise slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to around - 4.6 yuan/gram. Based on historical performance, the gold price may reach a stage high on the day before the Fed meeting, so cautious operation is recommended [4]. - **Silver**: The market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and risk appetite has decreased. Shanghai silver saw an increase of 50,000 lots at night, pushing the silver price to a new high. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to 380 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment remains strong. However, the sustainability of overnight capital inflows is questionable, and attention should be paid to the intraday position changes [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US 10 - year JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The US three major stock indices closed mixed, European three major stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4236.6 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory remains unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: Before the Fed's interest - rate decision, Shanghai silver saw an increase of 50,000 lots at night. The US three major stock indices closed mixed, European three major stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.72% to $61.16 per ounce. The basis is neutral, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and Powell's speech early the next morning, and China's November CPI, speeches by the ECB president and officials, and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer's defense of the tax - increase plan today. The market is waiting for the Fed's meeting decision, and the increase in job openings in October has cooled risk appetite, causing the gold price to rise slightly. Be cautious as the gold price may reach a stage high on the day before the Fed meeting [4]. - **Silver**: The market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and the increase in positions at night has pushed the silver price to a new high. The sustainability of capital inflows is questionable, and attention should be paid to intraday position changes [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 09:30, China's November CPI and PPI; the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer will attend a hearing to defend a £26 billion tax - increase budget; at 18:45, the Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; at 18:55, the ECB President Lagarde will speak in London; at 20:30, ECB Governing Council member Sharon Donnery will host a panel discussion; at 22:45, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision; early the next morning, various central bank officials will speak, and the Fed will announce its FOMC interest - rate decision, economic outlook, and the US November government budget, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell; at 05:30, the Central Bank of Brazil will announce its interest - rate decision [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.82, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures is 91,299 kg and remains unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it; the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 5, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 18,497 kg to 717,788 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it; the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing. The long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 3.02% to 173,310 lots, the short position decreased by 1.39% to 58,766 lots, and the net long position decreased by 3.83% to 114,544 lots [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 0.70% to 406,455 lots, the short position decreased by 1.81% to 300,238 lots, and the net long position increased by 2.56% to 106,217 lots [5][31]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly, while the silver ETF position increased again [33][35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts started to decrease [37][38][40].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分煤矿因完成年度任务及井下搬迁工作面等因素而停减产，焦煤供应整体增量有限。近 期焦煤市场交投氛围一般，部分矿点出货乏力，库存小幅累积，然部分价格回落的煤种成交销售也有所 好转，但整体价格还是偏弱，线上竞拍市场也多降价成交，需求的疲软对于炼焦煤价格难以形成支撑； 偏空 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差87.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：钢厂利润小幅亏损，仍 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined due to the shutdown of some western plants, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly increased year - on - year, and the winter storage demand is strong, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea main contract will show a weak and downward trend today, and the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate down, inventory down, demand on - demand, winter storage strong, but overall oversupply, spot 1680 (-10), fundamentals neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 37, and the premium/discount ratio is 2.2%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 139.6 million tons (-6.8), which is bearish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is weakly downward, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, and the domestic oversupply is obvious. It is expected to fluctuate weakly today [5]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is inventory de - stocking; bearish factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | Spot delivery product price is 1680 (-10), Shandong spot is 1690 (0), Henan spot is 1680 (0), FOB China is 2765 [7]. | | **Futures** | 01 contract price is 1643 (-3), UR05 is 1711 (1), UR09 is 1721 (-3), basis is 37 (-7) [7]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 11477 (-49), UR comprehensive inventory is 139.6 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 129.1 million tons, UR port inventory is 10.5 million tons [7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。个别聚酯工厂集中补货。12月货在01-25~28有成 交，12月底个别略高在01-20~22附近，价格商谈区间在4610~4650。今日主流现货基差在01-26。中性 2、基差：现货4630，01合约基差-14，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With supply stabilizing at a low level, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing factories, and rising inventories in glass factories, it is expected that the glass will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The glass fundamentals show that production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high in the same period. The basis indicates that futures are at a premium to the spot. The inventory is above the 5 - year average and decreasing. The price is below the 20 - day line with the line trending down. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected to be mainly weak and volatile in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Likely to be positive**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs lead to production losses [4]. - **Likely to be negative**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original - sheet inventory [5]. 3. Main Logic - The glass supply stabilizes at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories rise. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a weak and volatile trend at a low level [6]. 4. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1002 yuan/ton to 984 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.80%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - panel glass decreased from 984 yuan/ton to 972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%. The main basis decreased from - 18 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.33% [7]. 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - panel in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [14]. 6. Fundamental - Cost Side - No specific content on the cost side other than mentioning glass production profit is provided. 7. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and both the number of operating production lines and production capacity are at historical lows in the same period [25][27]. 8. Fundamental - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [30]. 9. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.442 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is operating above the 5 - year average [43]. 10. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [44].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14700，基差-285 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-10投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8300，基差316，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2605：7800-8200附近区间震荡 每日观点 菜籽油 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23310，基差+240；偏多。 3、库存：12月9日LME锌库存较上日增加400吨至58152吨，12月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少2330吨至56067吨；中性。 12月9日国内主要现货市场行情 | 品名 ...