早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、马斯克 1 万亿美元的薪酬激励方案以股东们 75%的支持率获得通过。马斯克需要 | | | | | 达到的最终目标是特斯拉公司市值超过 8.5 万亿美元，调整后 EBITDA 达到 4000 亿 | | | | | 美元。特斯拉汽车累计交付量达到 2000 万辆、活跃 FSD 订阅用户数量连续 3 个月 | | | | | 超过 1000 万人、累计交付 100 万台机器人，以及有 100 万辆 Robotaxis 同时在商 | | | | | 业运行。 | | | | | 2、英国电力监管透露，自 2024 年 11 月以来，需求队列里的签约报装量激增。截 | | | | | 至今年 6 月的可用数据，接入电网的需求从 41 吉瓦暴增至 125 吉瓦，其中输电需 | | | | | 求暴增 80 吉瓦。需求总量已经达到目前英国用电峰值的两倍多。 | | | | | 3、对于备受资本市场关注的机器人，马斯克表示，他认为机器人将成为"有史以 | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in October showed mixed performance, with overall export growth benefiting from diversification despite a decline in exports to the US. The bond market had a short - term rally last week and a slight pullback this week, and if international financial market volatility expands next week, it will be relatively favorable for the domestic bond market [10][14][27] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market - This week, most of the major Treasury futures contracts showed a narrow sideways fluctuation in the first two trading days and a continuous decline in the last three days, with a slight weekly decline. The 30 - year Treasury fell 0.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.20%, the 5 - year fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year fell 0.07% [4] - As of November 7, the Treasury bond yield curve shifted slightly upward in parallel compared to October 31. The 2 - year yield rose 3 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 2 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year rose 1 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2 BP to 2.16% [7] 3.2 Foreign Trade - In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars. From January to October, exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [10] - In October, exports to ASEAN increased by 11%, to the EU by 0.9%, and decreased by 25.2% to the US. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five export destinations increased by 3.45% [12][14] 3.3 Real Estate - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In the second quarter, it was 265,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In the third quarter, it was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In October, it was 240,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. From November 1 - 6, it was 170,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 48%. The national commercial housing sales are still in the bottom - grinding process [16] 3.4 Prices - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rose rapidly in October, which will promote the month - on - month increase of CPI in October and reduce the year - on - year decline. At the beginning of November, it showed a narrow sideways fluctuation [18] - In October, the average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. At the beginning of November, industrial product prices remained at a low level [21] 3.5 Capital - This week, short - term capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.318%, and that of DR007 was 1.424%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.637%, a slight decline from last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The reasons for the decline in China's exports in October include the slowdown of export growth in South Korea and Vietnam in October and the relatively high base in October last year. The central bank's plan to resume open - market Treasury bond trading operations drove the bond market rally last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.85% may be the upper limit in the future [27] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, steel and ore prices fluctuated weakly. Electric arc furnace steel continued to incur overall losses, blast furnace profits shrank, and the blast furnace profitability rate continued to decline. Steel mills had low production enthusiasm, with some mills undergoing maintenance and halting production, and environmental protection restrictions were imposed in areas such as Shanxi and Tangshan, Hebei. The daily hot metal output was 234,220 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,140 tons, basically the same as the same period last year, and it is likely to further decline to below 230,000 tons in the later stage. The demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the pressure for recovery has increased. The price of upstream coking coal is firm, and there has been a fourth round of price increases for coke, providing strong cost support. For iron ore, the continuous decline in hot metal output is negative for iron ore. The weakening of cost prices benefits steel mills, and a weak balance of supply and demand is maintained in the off - season. Overall, the supply and demand of steel and ore are both weak, and it is expected to continue to maintain the oscillation range. The resistance level of the main rebar contract is 3,230, and the support level is 3,000. The resistance level of hot - rolled coils is 3,450, and the support level is 3,200. The resistance level of the main iron ore 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [4]. - The steel price generally has a cycle of about 7 years: it declined from 2008 - 2015, rose from 2016 - 2021, and declined from 2021 - 2025. Currently, it is still in the decline cycle [7]. - This week, steel and ore prices fluctuated lower, and the rebar price at 3,000 and the iron ore price at 750 showed strong resilience [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1.50357 billion tons, a weekly decrease of 10,190 tons, a decline of 0.67% [15]. - The daily hot metal output was 234,220 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,140 tons, in line with expectations, and it is likely to further decline to 220,000 - 230,000 tons in the later stage. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19%. From October 27 to November 2, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3.3141 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2298 billion tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3.2184 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1893 billion tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 490 million tons. From October 27 to November 2, the total global iron ore shipment volume monitored by Mysteel was 3.2138 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 174.5 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.7592 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 166.7 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.8951 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89.2 million tons, among which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.6058 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.6 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.5 million tons [22]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased week - on - week: the factory inventory decreased week - on - week, and the decline was mainly contributed by rebar. The social inventory also decreased week - on - week, and the decline was also mainly contributed by rebar [17]. Consumption - This week, the weekly consumption volume of the five major varieties was 866,930 tons, a decrease of 5.4%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.2% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. In the later stage, the supply side of steel is expected to shrink, the demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the pressure for recovery has increased [17]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the rebar price at 3,000 still has strong resilience. When it approaches 3,000, it is recommended to try to go long. If it effectively breaks below, it is recommended to stop the loss and exit. For iron ore, short - term operations are recommended, and stop - loss should be set [5]. Important Information - From January to September, among the newly - issued local special bonds nationwide, about 640 billion yuan of special bonds related to real estate such as affordable housing projects, affordable rental housing, and urban old community renovation were issued, a year - on - year increase of 89% [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange publicly solicited opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard [6]. - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the measures for imposing additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States. The 24% additional tariff rate on US - made goods will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on US - made goods will be retained [6]. - According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced a total of 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily output decrease of 9.8% month - on - month; the steel inventory was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons from the previous ten - day period, a decline of 11.8% [6]. - President Xi Jinping emphasized when listening to the report on the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port that the goals of building the Hainan Free Trade Port should be fully achieved. It is necessary to steadily expand institutional opening - up and further improve the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. It is necessary to further promote the opening - up of the flow of goods and factors and better promote the cross - border flow of production factors [6]. - According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China exported 828,000 vehicles; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 6.513 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.3% [6]. - According to data from the General Administration of Customs on November 7, 2025, in October 2025, China exported 9.782 million tons of steel, a decrease of 683,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 6.5%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume of steel was 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [6]. - According to data from the General Administration of Customs on November 7, 2025, in October 2025, China exported 351.907 million household appliances; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 3.711632 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - AI competition has shifted from chip competition to power competition, with data center power consumption rising rapidly due to generative AI [4] - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies, and the US employment situation is deteriorating [20][21] - In the context of the shift in AI competition, the high - allocation directions for large - scale asset allocation are energy storage and power equipment [50] Summary by Related Catalogs AI and Power Competition - The annual power consumption of generative AI is expected to soar from 7TWh in 2023 to 393TWh in 2028, and the US power consumption is expected to hit record highs in 2025 and 2026 [4] - The UK's power grid connection demand has increased from 41GW to 125GW, and the US data centers are purchasing solid oxide fuel cells and other equipment [4] - Some Silicon Valley tech companies, like SpaceX, plan to build data centers in space [5] Corporate News - On November 5, XPeng Motors released a hyper - anthropomorphic robot named IRON [12] - On November 7, Tesla's shareholders' meeting approved Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan, with specific performance targets set [15][18] Global Economic Outlook - NVIDIA CEO believes China will win the AI competition, and Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the stock markets in Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland [20] - The total capacity of US data center projects under planning or construction exceeds 45GW, with an expected investment of over $2.5 trillion [20] - The cyclically - adjusted P/E ratio of US stocks has reached 40 for the second time in history [20] - Consumption in the US is slowing down, and the number of corporate lay - offs in October increased by 183% compared to September [20] US Economic Indicators - US employment is in a downturn, and the number of corporate lay - offs in October was mainly driven by the tech and warehousing industries [20][22] - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, China's commodity competitiveness increased, and the US's imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [25] - The US ISM services PMI in October was 52.4, continuing to expand, and the manufacturing PMI showed different trends [28] - The US manufacturing backlog orders in August were at a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 7.1% [31] - The US capital goods imports in August were still high, with a year - on - year growth of 10.5%, indicating the acceleration of "re - industrialization" [34] - The US wholesalers' sales in August reached a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, and the retail and food sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month [37][40] International Economic Indicators - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI was flat in October, while the service PMI's expansion accelerated [43] - India's manufacturing and service PMIs in October continued to expand, maintaining growth for over three years [45] - The long - term bond yields in Japan showed an upward trend [48] Large - scale Asset Allocation - The US government shutdown led to a $700 billion increase in the fiscal account, causing a liquidity shock and a decline in US stocks [6][50] - The Shanghai Composite Index returned to 4000 points, and stock index long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index [50][51] - Due to the shift in AI competition, transformer exports increased, and the grid equipment ETF reached a new high [50][54] - Driven by energy storage demand, the photovoltaic industry's outlook reversed, and the photovoltaic ETF reached a new high [50][57] - With large - scale AI infrastructure construction, the demand for energy - storage batteries surged, and the battery ETF remained strong [50][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The stability of the stock market is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and enhancing the internal circulation of the economy. Steady growth in the stock market can increase residents' wealth expectations, leading to more consumption and strengthening the internal driving force of the domestic cycle [8][15]. - The market is in a large - scale shock range, and the slow - bull trend remains the main feature. The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded to around 4000 points, indicating market strength [15]. - In the context of declining export expectations and investment slowdown, consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee emphasized seizing the high - ground of scientific and technological development, promoting high - quality development, expanding domestic demand, and steadily expanding institutional opening - up. It also focused on improving people's livelihoods and promoting green transformation [3][4][5]. Stock Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index retested the top of the previous box this week and then rebounded to the 4000 - point level. The overall market is in a large - scale shock range, with a slow - bull trend. The structural migration of Chinese capital to stocks may have begun, driven by potential asset reallocation of trillions of dollars [10][15]. - The balance of margin trading in the two markets has remained stable at around 2.5 trillion yuan, and 2.93 million new A - share accounts were opened in September. In August, non - bank financial institutions had an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in new RMB deposits, indicating a transfer of residents' savings to the stock market [17][20]. - The year - on - year growth rate of M1 reached 7.2% in September, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial for the upward movement of the stock market [23]. Economic Data - In September, the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the CPI for consumer goods increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing signs of getting out of deflation [26]. - China's export value in September was 305.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, indicating an export slowdown. The export value of mechanical and electrical products was 190.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.2%, showing a significant slowdown [29][32]. - In September, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 3.3 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.9%, indicating an investment slowdown. The monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.52 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 7.9%, reflecting local fiscal difficulties [35][38]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September was 4.19 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.0%. Consumption will be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [41]. International Market - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, the competitiveness of Chinese goods increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [44]. - The total retail and food sales in the US in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, indicating strong consumer demand. The US capital goods imports in August were 91.9 billion US dollars, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating an acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [47][50]. Industry Trends - The AI competition has shifted from chip competition to power competition, leading to a significant increase in transformer exports and a record high for the grid equipment ETF [53]. - Driven by energy storage demand and anti - involution measures, the photovoltaic industry has reversed its decline, and the photovoltaic ETF has reached a record high [56]. - With large - scale AI infrastructure construction, the demand for energy storage batteries has soared, and the battery ETF has remained strong [58]. Trading Strategies - For index futures directional trading, the market is in a large - scale shock range, and long positions in CSI 300 index futures are the main allocation [15][60]. - For index options trading, when the index is in a large - scale shock range, it is advisable to observe rather than act on far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options [16][63].

Group 1: Core View - In November, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao'du Port increased significantly. As of November 6th, the average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles was 1,396, a substantial increase of 336 vehicles per day compared to the average of 1,060 vehicles per day in October [3] Group 2: Data Summary - The monthly average number of customs - cleared vehicles at the 288 Port in 2023 from January to September were 1,800, 1,600, 1,360, 1,600, 1,252, 1,400, 1,400, 1,200, 1,060 respectively [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6, the adjustment of the vegetable oil sector was basically in place, and the liquidation of short - positions led to a stop in the decline and a stabilization of vegetable oils. The protein sector was running strongly at a high level due to cost - push and capital aggregation [1][2]. - For the vegetable oil sector, it showed a stable recovery. Aggressive investors could hold long - positions. Rapeseed oil was the strongest, followed by palm oil, and soybean oil was relatively weak. For the double - meal sector, the external market was weak, domestic spot traders were not willing to follow the price increase, and the market might experience a correction. Aggressive investors could try short - positions [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Quotes - On November 6, the soybean oil main contract Y2601 closed at 8,188 yuan/ton, up 0.61% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6,026 lots; the secondary main contract Y2605 closed at 8,006 yuan/ton, up 0.70% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4,532 lots. The palm oil main contract P2601 closed at 8,732 yuan/ton, up 1.65% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,776 lots; the secondary main contract P2605 closed at 8,798 yuan/ton, up 1.17% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 234 lots. The rapeseed oil main contract OI2601 closed at 9,564 yuan/ton, up 1.67% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,830 lots; the secondary main contract OI2605 closed at 9,173 yuan/ton, up 1.22% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,280 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 5, international crude oil futures fell more than 1%, closing at a two - week low. The NYMEX most - actively traded December crude oil futures contract fell 96 cents, or 1.59%, to settle at $59.60 per barrel [1]. - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 was expected to increase by 10% to about 56 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 53.63 million tons [1]. - The Brazilian government might not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026, which might reduce the industrial demand for international soybean oil and have a certain drag on CBOT soybean oil [1]. - The shipping survey agency ITS showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October were 1,639,089 tons, a 5.2% increase from September. Exports to China were 15,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October 2025 was 2.07 million tons, a 12.31% increase month - on - month [1]. - As of the 44th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.5728 million tons, a weekly decrease of 58,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.21%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.71% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of November 6, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis was 172 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the basis was - 192 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 152 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 419.2 yuan/ton. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis was 373 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean futures price rose significantly again, driving a slight rebound in US soybean oil. The previous market speculation about inventory, exports, and production pressures had basically materialized, and Malaysian palm oil showed resistance to decline technically. Domestically, after reaching a new consensus between China and the US, China began to purchase US soybeans, narrowing the supply shortage gap in the first quarter of next year. The domestic oilseed supply in the fourth quarter was sufficient, the oil mill operating rate increased, and consumption entered a seasonal off - season. The overall domestic oil inventory increased, palm oil was still accumulating inventory, and the rapeseed oil price further declined [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The vegetable oil sector showed a stable recovery. Aggressive investors could hold long - positions. Rapeseed oil and palm oil were relatively strong, while soybean oil was relatively weak. The pressure level of the Y2601 contract was 9,000, and the support level was 8,000; the pressure level of the Y2605 contract was 8,400, and the support level was 7,840; the pressure level of the P2601 contract was 10,000, and the support level was 8,570; the pressure level of the P2605 contract was 10,000, and the support level was 8,580; the pressure level of the OI2601 contract was 12,000, and the support level was 9,299; the pressure level of the OI2605 contract was 12,000, and the support level was 9,000. No arbitrage strategies were provided [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Quotes - On November 6, the soybean meal main contract M2601 closed at 3,068 yuan/ton, down 0.16% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 44,479 lots; the secondary main contract M2605 closed at 2,827 yuan/ton, up 0.11% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 13,829 lots. The rapeseed meal main contract RM2601 closed at 2,549 yuan/ton, up 0.47% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 34,202 lots; the secondary main contract RM2605 closed at 2,416 yuan/ton, up 0.46% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 5,978 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Since November 10, 2025, at 13:01, the additional tariff measures on US - originated imported goods would be adjusted, and the 24% additional tariff rate on US goods would continue to be suspended for one year, while the 10% additional tariff rate would be retained [2]. - As of October 30, Brazilian soybean planting was 47% complete, higher than 36% a week ago but 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [2]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season might reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [2]. - After the recent meeting between China and Canada in South Korea, Canada could not immediately cancel tariffs on China, meaning that the export channels of Canadian rapeseed and its by - products to China remained closed [2]. - There were market rumors that COFCO had purchased 9 ships of Australian rapeseed for shipment between November and January [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory Status - As of the 44th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.733 million tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.208 million tons, an increase of 156,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 14.77%; the contract volume was 4.662 million tons, a decrease of 177,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. The inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% [3]. 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of November 6, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,104 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 35,000 tons; the basis of soybean meal was 3,091 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 4,000 tons; the basis of the soybean meal main contract was - 8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 79 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons; the basis was 2,478 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 124 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 161 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.5 Market Logic - Externally, as China had not clearly stated whether to purchase 1.2 million tons of US soybeans, the US soybean price was under pressure and declined. Domestically, the oil mill quotes increased with the market, but the near - month basis decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was dull. Feed enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and traders mostly chose to sell at a small profit. The domestic rapeseed raw material inventory dropped to zero, causing a sharp rise in the rapeseed meal market [3]. 3.2.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: For the double - meal sector, the previous long - positions should be liquidated, and aggressive investors could try short - positions. The pressure level of the M2601 contract was 3,190, and the support level was 2,685; the pressure level of the M2605 contract was 3,000, and the support level was 2,549; the pressure level of the RM2601 contract was 2,620, and the support level was 2,280; the pressure level of the RM2605 contract was 2,500, and the support level was 2,270. No arbitrage strategies were provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position in steel products [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, with rebar rising and hot-rolled coils falling during the night session. The supply of the five major steel products decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, total inventory dropped by 0.67%, and weekly consumption fell by 5.4%. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased this week, inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot-rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand for both declined. With blast furnace production cuts and maintenance in some areas, partial enterprise production cuts, and full losses in electric arc furnace steel, the supply of crude steel is expected to continue to shrink, while the demand side remains weak. The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. It is recommended to continue holding long positions around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, with rebar rising and hot-rolled coils falling during the night session [1] Important Information - In October, the bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.9%. The new loans in October may be less than the same period last year, and the slowdown in government bond issuance may lead to a decline in social financing. The supply of the five major steel products this week was 8.5674 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 185,500 tons, a decline of 2.1%; the total inventory was 15.0357 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 101,900 tons, a decline of 0.67%; the weekly consumption was 8.6693 million tons, a decline of 5.4%, among which the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.2% month-on-month, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [1] Market Logic - The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased this week, inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot-rolled coils increased, and the apparent demand for both declined. With blast furnace production cuts and maintenance in Shanxi, Tangshan in Hebei and other places, partial enterprise production cuts, and full losses in electric arc furnace steel, the supply of crude steel is expected to continue to shrink, while the demand side remains weak. The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000 [1] Trading Strategy - The 3000 level of rebar still has strong resilience. It is recommended to continue holding long positions around 3000 and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for iron ore in the black building materials industry is "long" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the iron ore market, including its price trends, important news, market logic, and trading strategies. It notes that iron ore prices rose on Thursday and fell at night. With the decline in steel production and consumption and the change in the supply - demand relationship of iron ore, it is recommended to hold existing long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Iron ore prices rose on Thursday and fell at night [1] 2. Important News - In October, the bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9% [1] - According to the C50 Wind Index survey, new loans in October may decrease year - on - year, and the slowdown in government bond issuance may lead to a decline in social financing [1] - President Xi Jinping emphasized the construction goals of Hainan Free Trade Port, including expanding institutional opening - up and improving trade and investment liberalization and facilitation [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5674 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 185,500 tons (2.1%); the total inventory was 15.0357 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 101,900 tons (0.67%); the weekly consumption was 8.6693 million tons, a decrease of 5.4%, with a 7.2% decrease in building material consumption and a 0.2% decrease in plate consumption [1] - This week, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 27.8092 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 974,600 tons, and the total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 1.1292 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 218,000 tons [1] 3. Market Logic - The arrival of imported ore increased week - on - week, while the global iron ore shipping volume decreased week - on - week. The daily output of molten iron was 2.3422 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 214,000 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19%. Blast furnaces in Shanxi, Tangshan and other places reduced production and carried out maintenance, and the molten iron output is likely to further decline to 2.2 - 2.3 million tons [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The 750 level has strong support. Be cautious about the downside space. Hold existing long positions cautiously and set stop - losses. The resistance level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The short - term price of bottle chips is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with the main contract reference range of 5,650 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday night, the PR2601 contract rose 50 yuan to 5,722 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips rose 40 yuan to 5,730 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips rose 20 yuan to 5,750 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings increased by 1,738 lots to 58,500 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 1,999 lots to 56,700 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 341,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,800 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 74.8%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%. The production cost was 5,234 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 119 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 467,700 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.8091 million tons [1] - International oil prices fell due to the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories and market concerns about oversupply. NYMEX crude oil futures December contract fell 0.96 dollars/barrel to 59.60 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract fell 0.92 dollars/barrel to 63.52 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43%. China's INE crude oil futures 2512 contract fell 3.1 yuan to 462.1 yuan/ton, and fell 4.4 yuan to 457.7 yuan/ton at night [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, in line with market expectations and the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips changed little, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about future demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips in September decreased month - on - month. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber and polyester industry, the price soared. The market is waiting for the details of the anti - involution policy to be finalized. The fundamentals may limit the upside space [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1]