Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The upcoming listing of platinum and palladium futures and options contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange marks a significant step in the diversification and internationalization of China's futures market, improving the precious metal derivatives system and providing new investment opportunities. The report focuses on palladium production and supply, indicating that the overall supply shows a tightening trend, and the structural supply may support the medium - to - long - term price resilience [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Overall Situation of Palladium Production and Supply - Palladium is mainly in the form of palladium ingots and sponge palladium in the market. Palladium ingots are used for financial reserves and derivatives, while sponge palladium is widely used in industrial fields [2]. - Global palladium supply depends on mining and recycling. In 2024, the total supply was 294.3 tons, with 205.2 tons from mining and 91.5 tons from recycling. Russia and South Africa account for over 75% of mining supply. In 2025, the total supply is expected to reach 298.4 tons, a 1.4% increase year - on - year [2]. II. Mining Supply - Palladium is mainly a by - product of platinum and copper - nickel mining. Its extraction requires multiple processes. In 2024, global platinum and palladium production were about 170 tons and 190 tons respectively, with South Africa and Russia being the major producers [4]. - Global palladium mining supply fluctuates narrowly. Factors such as South Africa's power crisis, Russia's mining challenges, and declining ore grades limit supply. In 2025, the supply is expected to tighten slightly as producers cut capital expenditure and high - cost mines reduce production [5]. III. Recycling Supply - Recycled palladium accounts for 20% - 25% of the total supply. North America and Europe dominate the global recycling market, contributing about 65% in 2024. The industry is using advanced technologies to improve recovery rates [8]. - The supply of recycled palladium is driven by the vehicle报废周期. From 2024 - 2025, it is expected to recover moderately, reaching about 95 tons in 2025, mainly due to the normalization of scrapped vehicles in North America and Europe, but limited by recycling capacity and logistics efficiency [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The global economy maintains an upward trend with positive signs in the US, Eurozone, and India, while China is shifting towards AI - driven development [48]. - There are various trends in different asset classes: US stocks are not optimistic, UK bonds face risks, Japanese bonds may see rising yields, and emerging market funds are flowing from India to China. Chinese stocks are attracting more investment, and certain ETFs and bonds have their own outlooks [51][53][56][59]. 3. Content Summaries by Relevant Aspects US Economic Indicators - **Manufacturing and Services**: The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI hit a more than 3 - year high, and the services business activity index also showed trends. The 7 - month retail and food sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month [6][48]. - **Labor Market**: There is a strange balance in the labor market with no recruitment or dismissal by companies and no resignation by employees. Initial and continued jobless claims data indicate labor market resilience [10][13]. - **Trade**: In June, the US goods import returned to normal, capital goods imports reached the second - highest level with a 13.9% year - on - year increase, and service exports remained high [19][22][25]. - **Inventory**: Wholesalers' and manufacturers' inventories are in an active restocking state with 1.3% and 1.1% year - on - year growth respectively [28]. - **Inflation**: In July, the core CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and PPI for goods and services also rose, indicating accelerating inflation [34][37]. - **Wages**: The hourly wage of non - farm enterprises and its year - on - year growth are presented [40]. Other Regions' Economic Indicators - **Eurozone**: After 8 consecutive interest rate cuts and Germany's 30% military expansion, the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range [42]. - **India**: The July manufacturing PMI reached a one - year high, and both manufacturing and services have been expanding for over three years [45]. Asset Class Analysis - **Stocks**: US stocks are showing fatigue. Chinese stocks are attracting more investment from emerging market funds, Korean investors, etc. The four major Chinese stock indices are optimistic in the medium - term, and AI ETFs are expected to be strong [51][59][62][65]. - **Bonds**: UK bonds are being sold off, Japanese bonds may see rising yields due to expected interest rate hikes, and bond funds are being redeemed with funds flowing to the stock market [53][56][67]. - **Commodities**: After the Fed's September interest rate cut, the recovery strength of commodities is uncertain, and gold is in a technical adjustment with potential support from the rate cut [69][72]. - **Currency**: The RMB is expected to have double surpluses in trade and capital accounts and is being favored [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is expected to consolidate with shrinking volume to digest profit - taking chips and repair technical indicators. After the consolidation, the stock index is expected to rise. The A - share market is in a mid - term bull market [12]. - The "dual discount" policy on personal consumption loans and loans to service - sector business entities will promote consumption, and consumption is expected to be the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [15][41]. - The current upward trend of the Chinese stock market is mainly driven by retail funds, and there is still a large amount of "stock funds" waiting to enter the market, especially the small - and medium - cap stocks have significant upside potential [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose continuously but was blocked at 3900 points [7]. - At the end of August, the trading volume of the two - market stock index reached 3 trillion yuan, indicating a large number of profit - taking chips [12]. - On August 26, the margin trading balance of the two markets exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, and margin funds increased their positions rapidly [22]. 3.2 Policy Impact - On the evening of August 26, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative", which will promote the development of the artificial intelligence industry [14]. - On August 13, the central government implemented a discount policy on personal consumption loans and loans to service - sector business entities, which is expected to boost consumption [15]. 3.3 Capital Flow - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 soared to 5.6%, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial for the stock market to rise [16]. - In July, the new RMB deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and funds are accelerating to flow into the stock market [19]. - Bond funds have been subject to large - scale redemptions, and funds from the bond market are continuously flowing into the stock market [25]. - According to Goldman Sachs' PB data, China has become the market with the largest net capital inflow since August. Overseas Chinese ETFs are strongly attracting capital [27]. - In August, South Korean stock investors accelerated their purchases of Chinese stocks, mainly targeting leading companies in the technology and emerging industries [28]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the potential amount of funds from the Chinese household sector entering the market is over 10 trillion yuan [29]. 3.4 Economic Data - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the CPI for services increased by 0.6% month - on - month, showing signs of getting out of deflation [34]. - In July, China's export value reached 321.7 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate rising to 7.2% [38]. - In July, the retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.24 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.0% [41][53]. - In July, the fixed - asset investment in manufacturing was 2.58 trillion yuan, with an investment slowdown and a year - on - year growth rate of - 0.3% [44]. - In July, infrastructure investment was 1.88 trillion yuan, with a slowdown and a year - on - year growth rate of - 2%, reflecting the financial difficulties of local governments [47]. - In July, the newly started housing area and the sales area of commercial housing weakened again [50]. - In July, the total electricity consumption of the whole society exceeded 100 billion kWh, setting a new record, with a year - on - year growth rate of 8.8% [56]. - In July, the output of industrial robots was 63,700 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 40.0% [59]. - In July, the output of integrated circuits reached 46.9 billion pieces, setting a new high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 24.9%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [62]. - In July, China's passenger car exports reached 599,000 units, a record high, and the export volume of electric vehicles was 325,000 units, the second - highest in history [65]. 3.5 International Market - In August, the US Market manufacturing PMI index accelerated its expansion, reaching a new high in more than three years [68]. - In July, the US retail and food sales reached 726.2 billion US dollars, a record high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [71]. - In June, the US capital goods import value was 91.4 billion US dollars, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 13.9%, indicating the acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [74]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 1.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 1.1%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [77]. - In July, the month - on - month growth rate of the US PPI for goods rose to 0.7%, and that of the PPI for services increased significantly to 1.1%, indicating an acceleration of inflation in the US [80]. - The eurozone cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, and Germany plans to expand its military by 30%. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in August [89]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - The medium - term outlook for the four major stock indexes is optimistic, and the bull market is ongoing. In the short term, the market will consolidate with shrinking volume. The CSI 500 index is stronger than the CSI 1000 index, indicating a shift in market style towards mid - cap growth stocks. After the ChiNext Index, the GEM index has become the strongest index, which is related to the profit growth of listed companies. The artificial intelligence ETF is expected to become the strongest ETF [94][96][99]. - Due to the impact of quantitative fund hedging, the 2512 contracts of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes still have a relatively deep discount, and the strategy of earning discounts can be continued [103]. - After the consolidation in September, investors can choose the right time to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock index options [105].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 29 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 9 元至 2377 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 格下跌 18 元/吨至 2232 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 29440 手至 45.44 万手， 空头持仓增加 23822 手至 54.58 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 震荡 发 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 84.8%，环比上涨 1.2%。海外甲醇开工率 71.9%，环 比+4.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 129.93 万吨，较上一期数据增加 22.33 万 吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 18.28 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 4.05 万吨。中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 33.34 万吨，较上期增加 2.26 万吨，环比涨 7.27%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 29 日 星期五 早盘提示 Morning session notice | 股指期权交易：两市或进入阶段性缩量整固过程，暂缓股指期权建议。 | | --- | 重要事项: 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四两市主要指数宽幅震荡，午盘后买盘涌入，人工智能 ETF 大涨 7.8%。成交额 | | | | | 2.97 万亿元，缩量不明显。中证 500 指数收 7011 点，涨 148 点，涨幅 2.17%；中 | | | | | 证 1000 指数收 7447 点，涨 110 点，涨幅 1.51%；沪深 300 指数收 4463 点，涨 77 | | | | | 点，涨幅 1.77%；上证 50 指数收 2960 点，涨 42 点，涨幅 1.45%。行业与主题 ETF ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In July, the decline in profits of large-scale industrial enterprises narrowed, and the profits of the manufacturing industry, especially high-tech manufacturing, rebounded significantly year-on-year. Whether this trend can continue is worthy of attention. The implementation of anti-involution policies and the narrowing of the year-on-year decline in PPI are beneficial to the year-on-year recovery of industrial enterprise profits [3][14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Operating Income and Profit - From January to July, large-scale industrial enterprises achieved operating income of 78.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. In July, the operating income of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year. The total profit was 402.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year-on-year [1][4] - From January to July, private industrial enterprises' total profit increased by 1.8% year-on-year, and in July, their profit increased by 2.6% year-on-year [4] - From January to July, large-scale manufacturing enterprises achieved a total profit of 3.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. In July, manufacturing profits increased by 6.8% year-on-year, 5.4 percentage points faster than in June [2][7] - In July, the profit of raw material manufacturing turned from a 5.0% decline in June to a 36.9% increase. The consumer goods manufacturing industry decreased by 4.7%, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to June. The profit of high-tech manufacturing turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase [2][7] - Industries with relatively fast year-on-year profit growth from January to July include the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry (5175.9%), non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry (39.1%), etc. Industries with relatively large year-on-year profit declines include the coal mining and washing industry (-55.2%), ferrous metal mining and dressing industry (-33.7%), etc. [8] Operating Income Profit Margin - From January to July, the operating income profit margin of large-scale industrial enterprises was 5.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The manufacturing industry was 4.46%, slightly higher than the same period last year but about one percentage point lower than the same period in 2019. The mining industry was 16.75%, still higher than the same period in 2019. The production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water was 6.92%, better than the same period last year and higher than the same period in 2019 [2][9] Asset - Liability Ratio - At the end of July, the asset - liability ratio of large-scale industrial enterprises was 57.9%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points. The asset - liability ratio of large-scale manufacturing enterprises was 57.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage point. Both are at the highest levels for the same period in the past decade [3][10] Accounts Receivable and Inventory - At the end of July, the average collection period of accounts receivable of large-scale industrial enterprises was 69.8 days, a year-on-year increase of 3.4 days, and that of large-scale manufacturing enterprises was 70.8 days, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 days, both at the highest levels for the same period since 2015, putting pressure on corporate cash flow [3][13] - From January to July, the cumulative year-on-year growth of finished product inventory of large-scale industrial enterprises was 2.4%. Industrial enterprises controlled a small year-on-year increase in finished product inventory under the circumstances of falling ex-factory prices, negative year-on-year net profit growth, longer accounts receivable periods, and rising debt ratios [3][13]

Report Overview - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a public consultation announcement on platinum, palladium futures and options contracts and related rules on July 31, 2025, indicating the upcoming official listing of these products, which further improves the precious metal derivatives system and provides new risk management tools and investment opportunities for investors [1] - This report focuses on the metallic properties of platinum group metals and analyzes the historical price trends of palladium [1] Palladium Spot Price Trends Long - term Trends - From 2006 to 2015, palladium prices moved in sync with gold and silver, benefiting from global liquidity expansion and increased risk - aversion demand. After the 2008 financial crisis, all three metals rebounded strongly [5] - After 2015, palladium developed an independent trend. Driven by the explosion in automotive catalyst demand and supply shortages in South Africa, its price reached a historical peak of $3,433.00 per ounce around 2021, outperforming gold and silver [5] - Since 2022, palladium prices have declined due to the acceleration of the new - energy transition and the slowdown of the global economy, while gold and silver prices have remained relatively stable supported by central bank gold purchases and risk - aversion demand [5] Recent Trends - From 2023 - 2025, the palladium market showed unique characteristics, with more volatile price movements compared to other precious metals, influenced by both industrial and financial attributes [10] - In early 2025, the market was in a volatile pattern. In May, the expected copper tariff in the US led to preventive purchases of palladium due to its co - application with copper in the automotive and industrial sectors, and geopolitical uncertainties also redirected some funds to palladium [10] - The supply side has been tight, with production in Russia and South Africa constrained by geopolitical factors and infrastructure issues. The demand side has seen a structural change, with traditional automotive catalyst demand under long - term pressure from new - energy substitution, but emerging applications in the electronics and hydrogen industries providing new growth points [10][12] - As policy expectations changed, the palladium price corrected. In the long run, the market remains in a tight balance, with the development of the hydrogen industry providing support, and the market is in a transition period from traditional to emerging demand, characterized by high volatility and unique allocation value [12] Introduction to Platinum Group Metals - Platinum group metals (PGMs) include platinum (Pt), palladium (Pd), rhodium (Rh), iridium (Ir), osmium (Os), and ruthenium (Ru). They are important among precious metals and have irreplaceable industrial value in fields such as catalysis, electronics, aerospace, and hydrogen energy [14] - PGMs have unique physical and chemical properties: high melting and boiling points, electrical and thermal stability, chemical inertness, corrosion resistance, oxidation resistance, and excellent catalytic performance [16] - Due to these properties, PGMs and their alloys are indispensable catalyst materials in modern industries, playing a key role in automotive exhaust purification, petrochemical hydrocracking, and fine - chemical organic synthesis [17] Palladium Industry Chain Structure Upstream - The upstream of the palladium industry includes exploration, mining, and rough refining. Global palladium resources are highly concentrated in Russia and South Africa, which together contribute over 80% of global production. The main task is to extract palladium concentrates from copper - nickel symbiotic ores. China is at a disadvantage in this segment and mostly relies on imports [20] Mid - stream - The mid - stream focuses on purification and standardized product production. Palladium is purified to ≥99.95% purity through techniques such as solvent extraction and ion exchange, and is converted into palladium ingots (used for investment reserves) and sponge palladium (the core raw material for automotive catalysts). Chinese companies like Zijin Mining and Yunnan Precious Metals Group participate in global competition through overseas resource deployment and technological upgrades [20] Downstream - The downstream is mainly dominated by automotive catalysts, especially in gasoline vehicle exhaust purification. Other applications include electronics, chemical manufacturing, medical consumption, and the investment market. Recycling is a key supplementary link, with over 70% of recycled palladium coming from scrapped automotive catalysts, and the global recycling supply accounting for 32.5%. China is upgrading its recycling system through the "trade - in" policy [23]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: There is continuous pressure from a loose supply situation, and the inventory level has stopped falling and stabilized. If the inventory rises again later, there will still be downward pressure on egg prices [5]. - Medium - term: The Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak season may drive a phased rebound in spot prices at the end of August and early September. The rebound high depends on the rhythm of culling hens. Currently, culling hens is less than expected, and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is large, so one should not be overly optimistic about the spot price increase [5]. - Long - term: If the egg - chicken farming profit turns positive in the third quarter and the culling of hens by the farming side is less than expected, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Content Futures Performance - Today, all egg futures contracts declined. As of the time of writing, the main 2510 contract fell to 2950 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 1.6%. The far - month contracts led the decline significantly, with the 2608 contract dropping 3.69% to 3834 yuan per 500 kilograms [4]. Spot Performance - The egg price in the peak season was weak. Yesterday, the egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 2.71 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.02 yuan per catty from the previous day [4]. Trading Strategy - The morning report this week continuously suggested maintaining a band - high - short strategy for the 2510 contract. Now that the contract has fallen below 3000, further downward space has been opened, and short positions can be held. Short positions in the 2512 and 2601 contracts, as continuously suggested in the morning report, can also be held. For the 2607/2608 contracts, the current strategy is still mainly high - short. Pay close attention to the rhythm and extent of culling hens this year [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - The central bank aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain ample liquidity, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, lower bank liability costs, and reduce the overall social financing cost. The National Development and Reform Commission will approve the establishment and deployment of new policy - based financial instruments, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Short - term stock market adjustments are conducive to the stabilization of treasury bond futures. Traders are advised to conduct band trading [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.24%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher in the morning and then declined in the afternoon, closing with a mid - length negative line [1][2]. 2. Important Information - **Open Market**: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 379.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing, the net withdrawal was 236.1 billion yuan [1]. - **Funds Market**: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31%, and that of DR007 was 1.51%, up from 1.49% the previous day [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: On Wednesday, most of the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds rose compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year yield decreased by 0.60 BP to 1.41%, the 5 - year rose 0.44 BP to 1.63%, the 10 - year rose 3.90 BP to 1.80%, and the 30 - year rose 3.50 BP to 2.07% [1]. - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to July, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 78.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% (2.5% from January to June and 2.1% in 2024). The total profit was 4.02035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% (1.8% from January to June and 3.3% in 2024). In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.5% year - on - year, compared with a 4.3% decline in June [1]. - **Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, using fiscal and financial means to optimize service supply and stimulate new service consumption [1][2]. 3. Market Logic - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The National Development and Reform Commission will approve new policy - based financial instruments for emerging industries and infrastructure projects [1][2]. 4. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band trading [2].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 早盘提示 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 27 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、特朗普 ...