2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.78%报 4126.3 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.50%报 51.08 美元/盎司。美联储理事主张大幅降息，强化市 场宽松预期。俄乌冲突现缓和迹象，但西方长期介入仍存不确定性。美国财政赤 字扩大加剧美元信用担忧。 3. 伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME 期镍涨 1.50%报 14920.00 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 0.83%报 37695.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.55%报 10832.50 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 0.02%报 2999.50 美元/吨，LME 期铅跌 0.13%报 1981.50 美元/吨，LME 期铝跌 0.39%报 2801.00 美元/吨。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准 ...

Hot News - Since the second term of President Trump, the Chinese and US heads of state have maintained regular exchanges. The recent call, initiated by the US, had a positive, friendly, and constructive atmosphere, which is important for the stable development of Sino-US relations [2] - Maersk's CEO is encouraged by the peace process in Gaza. Navigation freedom in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has been established, and trade routes have returned to normal. The Suez Canal is the preferred passage for Maersk and its customers [2] - A US official said that the Ukrainian delegation has reached an agreement on the terms of a possible peace deal with the US, with some minor details remaining [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes that the economy needs significant interest rate cuts and hopes employment data will convince other Fed members to do so. The Fed should quickly lower interest rates to a neutral level [2] - US private-sector employers cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, an acceleration from the previous week's data showing a loss of 2,500 jobs per week [2] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are lithium carbonate, corn, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials rose 3.16%, precious metals 29.30%, oilseeds 9.90%, non-ferrous metals 22.26%, soft commodities 2.87%, coal, coking, and steel ore 12.79%, energy 3.06%, chemicals 11.08%, grains 1.42%, and agricultural and sideline products 4.16% [3] Plate Holdings - The chart shows the five-day changes in commodity futures plate holdings from November 19 to November 25, 2025 [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% daily, -2.14% monthly, and 15.46% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.69% daily, -0.05% monthly, and 29.09% annually [5] - In the fixed-income category, the 10-year Treasury futures fell 0.08% daily, -0.42% monthly, and -0.65% annually [5] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index fell 0.54% daily, -2.69% monthly, and -0.79% annually; London spot gold fell 0.07% daily, rose 3.23% monthly, and 57.46% annually [5] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index fell 0.39% daily, rose 0.08% monthly, and fell 7.99% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, rose 17.66% monthly, and 18.27% annually [5] Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and more [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯 12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价 差持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内 瑞拉开展新行动。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中 断担忧。但消费旺季结束、美国10月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第八个月萎缩，美国降息前景 不明朗，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，中东地区出口增加，原油仍是供应过剩格局。随着欧 佩克将2025 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, with the production rate falling 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November decreased by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the overall demand was weak. With the influence of factors such as crude oil price decline, it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in November was 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month (16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year - on - year (11.0%). This week, some refineries will stably produce asphalt, and the production rate will increase [1]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream industry's production rate was mixed last week. The road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - **Price**: Crude oil prices fell. The basis of asphalt in Shandong remained at a neutral level, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 1.19% to 3068 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3045 yuan/ton, the highest was 3074 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7249 to 153,792 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 38 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - **Demand - related Data**: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍 偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比 降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积 环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率 同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30 万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装置也大多通过技改 升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has increased. Although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the current off - season demand and the increase in SHFE inventory have weakened market confidence. The recent game of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has led to small fluctuations in copper prices. If the interest - rate cut is realized, copper prices are expected to be slightly stronger [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Today, copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. Waller unexpectedly released dovish signals, igniting the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut. The probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in December has risen to 81%. Copper concentrate inventory has increased for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is still ongoing, with the TC and RC remaining stable. Refined copper imports have decreased month - on - month, but the domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The SHFE copper inventory has also increased, and there is no shortage of supply. The 770th document has not been implemented, so the production of recycled copper rods in Jiangxi and Anhui has decreased. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2 million and 40 thousand tons, a month - on - month decline of over 10% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong and volatile trend. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 80 yuan/ton, and in South China it is 120 yuan/ton. On November 24, 2025, the LME official price was 10,775 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was +20 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of November 25, the latest data shows that the spot TC is - 42.35 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC is - 4.42 US cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 41,000 tons, a decrease of 2,851 tons from the previous period. As of November 24, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 115,300 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 155,800 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 409,400 short tons, an increase of 4,363 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the overall supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastics are expected to experience weak oscillations in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. In addition, the Trump administration is trying to promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky has shown an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 700,000 tons/year were recently put into operation. The plastics operating rate decreased slightly [1] - The agricultural film is entering the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season falling short of expectations. The price of agricultural film is stable. As the temperature drops, the demand in the north begins to decrease, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline [1] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is no actual policy for anti-involution in the plastics industry yet. Anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,822 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, below the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.28%. The position volume decreased by 9,070 lots to 488,359 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from -80 to +50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,640 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 25, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% week-on-week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film increased slightly again, and the orders for packaging film increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 685,000 tons compared to the previous day, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil: the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to $63/barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720/ton week-on-week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730/ton week-on-week [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PP market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, with limited follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving. There is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, and the anti - involution policy in the PP industry has not been implemented yet [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving start - up rate of the main downstream of drawstring remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 25th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Shanghai Secco's single - line led to an increase in the PP enterprise start - up rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price dropped. New production capacity was put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices decreased recently [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract increased positions and fluctuated downward, closing at 6317 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The position increased by 581 lots to 605,759 lots [2] - **Spot**: PP spot prices in various regions partially declined, with drawstring reported at 6180 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 25th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Shanghai Secco's single - line led to an increase in the PP enterprise start - up rate to around 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 21st, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving start - up rate of the main downstream of drawstring remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 68.5 tons week - on - week, 8 tons higher than the same period last year, and the petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down [4] 4. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - Not provided in the content 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mainstream Regional Market Prices (Yuan/ton) - In Hebei, the price remained at 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [2]. - In Henan, the price dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton [2]. - In Shandong, the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [2]. - In Shanxi, the price fell by 10 yuan/ton to 1500 yuan/ton [2]. - In Jiangsu, the price stayed at 1630 yuan/ton, the same as before [2]. - In Anhui, the price declined by 10 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [2]. - In Heilongjiang, the price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton [2]. - In Inner Mongolia, the price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton [2]. Factory Prices (Yuan/ton) - Hebei Dongguang's price remained at 1640 yuan/ton [2]. - Shandong Hualu's price stayed at 1640 yuan/ton [2]. - Jiangsu Linggu's price was unchanged at 1680 yuan/ton [2]. - Anhui Haoyuan's price dropped by 10 yuan/ton to 1620 yuan/ton [2]. Basis (Yuan/ton) - Shandong 05 basis increased by 17 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton [2]. - Shandong 01 basis rose by 15 yuan/ton to -84 yuan/ton [2]. - Hebei 05 basis went up by 7 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton [2]. - Hebei 01 basis increased by 5 yuan/ton to -84 yuan/ton [2]. Month - to - Month Spreads (Yuan/ton) - The 1 - 5 spread widened by 4 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread narrowed by 2 yuan/ton to -6 yuan/ton [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts decreased by 268 to 7302 [2]. International Quotes (US dollars/ton) - Middle East FOB remained at 395.5 US dollars/ton [2]. - US Gulf FOB stayed at 374.5 US dollars/ton [2]. - Egypt FOB was unchanged at 472.5 US dollars/ton [2]. - Baltic FOB remained at 372.5 US dollars/ton [2]. - Brazil CFR stayed at 415 US dollars/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily data of soybean, pig, and egg breeding profits, including closing prices, profit margins, and percentage changes, to reflect the current market situation of these industries [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - **Index and Contract Closing Prices**: The closing price of the soybean No.2 index was 3670.63 yuan/ton, with a -0.07% daily change; the soybean meal index was 2925.02 yuan/ton (+0.14%); the soybean oil index was 8070.53 yuan/ton (-0.28%). The closing price of the soybean No.2 active contract was 3691.00 yuan/ton (-0.11%); the soybean meal active contract was 3011 yuan/ton (-0.03%); the soybean oil active contract was 8168 yuan/ton (-0.27%) [2] - **Pressing Profits**: The pressing profit of the soybean No.2 index was 23.54 yuan/ton (+5.62%); the active contract pressing profit was 89.61 yuan/ton (-1.07%). The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans was -97.88 yuan/ton (+7.73%); the pressing profit of imported soybeans in Zhangjiagang was -222.60 yuan/ton (-1.68%) [2] - **Futures Profits**: The futures closing price (continuous) of soybean No.2 profit was 113.53 yuan/ton (-1.94%); the 1 - month delivery continuous was 89.61 yuan/ton (-1.07%); the 5 - month delivery continuous was 66.63 yuan/ton (-14.52%); the 9 - month delivery continuous was 58.76 yuan/ton (-14.58%) [2] Pig - **Index and Profit Data**: The closing price of the pig index was 11751.80 yuan/ton (+0.74%); the self - breeding and self - raising pig's on - disk profit was -273.14 yuan/head (-2.23%) [4] - **Futures and Spot Profits**: The futures closing price (continuous) of pig profit was -270.52 yuan/head (+2.03%); the 1 - month delivery continuous was -319.19 yuan/head (-0.19%); the 5 - month delivery continuous was -252.63 yuan/head (-1.70%); the 9 - month delivery continuous was -60.10 yuan/head (-33.61%). The self - breeding and self - raising pig's spot profit was -319.934896 yuan/head (+7.69%); the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was -234.63 yuan/head (+14.10%) [5] Egg - **Index and Profit Data**: The closing price of the egg index was 3259.20 yuan/500 kg (+0.69%); the egg's on - disk profit was -0.62 yuan/jin (-1.47%) [7] - **Futures and Spot Profits**: The futures closing price (continuous) of egg profit was -1.04 yuan/jin (+1.64%); the 1 - month delivery continuous was -0.68 yuan/jin (-1.33%); the 5 - month delivery continuous was -0.37 yuan/jin (-1.59%); the 9 - month delivery continuous was -0.04 yuan/jin (-16.99%). The average wholesale price of eggs in China was 7.35 yuan/kg (+1.24%); the egg's spot profit was -0.32 yuan/jin (+1.58%) [7]