Report Summary Overnight Market Trends - WTI crude oil's main contract was at $58.75 per barrel; Brent crude oil's main contract rose 0.13% to $62.47 per barrel [4]. - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48% at $4,224.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.76% at $52.53 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 0.54% at $35,380.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.26% at $2,744.50 per ton, etc., while LME copper fell 0.02% and LME zinc fell 0.03% [4]. Macroeconomic News - By the end of September 2025, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 274.33 trillion yuan, up 6.5% year - on - year [7]. - From January to August, policies supporting the manufacturing industry provided tax cuts, fee reductions, and tax refunds of 1292.5 billion yuan [8]. - In September 2025, China's CPI fell 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - The NDRC issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming to add 1.6 million DC charging guns [8]. - A Fed governor said that recent trade tensions increased economic uncertainty, making an early interest rate cut more urgent [8]. - The US president said the US would consider land operations against drug - trafficking groups and authorized the CIA to operate in Venezuela [8]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicated that overall economic activity changed little, with some regions reporting growth, no change, or a slight slowdown [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of October 15, 2025, China's methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, down 51,800 tons from the previous period [12]. - As of the week of October 13, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE was 178.12 million barrels, up 14.78 million barrels from the previous week [13]. - Russia's deputy prime minister said global energy demand was growing, but Russia had no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC [13]. - The US president said India's prime minister promised to stop buying Russian oil [13]. Metal Futures - The number of domestic polysilicon producers increased to 11 this week, and the October output was expected to be around 130,000 tons, with a narrowing month - on - month increase and a slight inventory build - up expected [14]. - Freeport McMoRan planned to exit the benchmark pricing system for copper ore sales [16]. - From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 367,000, down 1% year - on - year but up 1% from the previous month [17]. - Workers at an aluminum bauxite company in Guinea launched an indefinite strike [17]. - In September 2025, the output of refined tin in 20 domestic smelters was 9,770 tons, down 34.69% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year [18]. - In August 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 256,500 tons, the global primary aluminum market had a shortage of 105,400 tons, and the global refined nickel market had a surplus of 49,900 tons [18]. - Indonesia's tin production was expected to return to normal in 2026 after the crackdown on illegal mining [19]. Black - Series Futures - As of the week of October 15, the national building materials output was 4602,000 tons, up 53,400 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 5013,800 tons, up 132,200 tons; the social inventory was 5685,800 tons, down 35,400 tons; and the apparent demand was 4505,200 tons, up 760,900 tons [21]. Agricultural Futures - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, up 12.3% from the previous month [24]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 862,724 tons, up 16.2% from the previous month [25]. - India's vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports were 829,017 tons, significantly down from August [25]. - Indonesia planned to raise the CPO export tax from 10% to 15% [26]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs deployed work on pig quarantine and slaughter [26]. - Guangdong Province planned to start purchasing frozen pork reserves as the pig - grain ratio entered the first - level warning zone [26]. - US threats of not buying Chinese edible oil may be ineffective [26]. - Brazil's expected soybean planting area in 2025 was 47.7 million hectares, up 0.1% from the previous forecast and 3.6% from last year, and the expected output was 1.65866 billion tons [27]. - In September 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.243 billion pounds [28]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, A - shares rebounded with a shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to 3912.21, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%. The trading volume was 2.09 trillion yuan, down over 500 billion yuan [30]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.84% to 25,910.6, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.57%. Southbound funds sold a net HK$5.443 billion [30]. - By the end of Q3 2025, northbound funds' A - share market value was close to 2.59 trillion yuan, up 12.91% quarter - on - quarter, and they significantly increased holdings in technology sectors [30]. - Ping An Life and China Ping An increased their holdings in Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China's H - shares [31][32]. Industry - Six departments issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027 [33]. - In September, China's second - hand car market transactions were 1.7944 million, up 5.1% month - on - month and 8.2% year - on - year, with a transaction amount of 110.466 billion yuan [34]. - Chengdu expanded the scope of the "commercial mortgage to provident fund mortgage" policy [34]. Overseas - The IMF warned that global public debt might exceed 100% of GDP by 2029 [35]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that overall economic activity changed little, with a slight decline in retail spending and stable employment [35]. - The US Senate failed to advance a temporary appropriation bill [37]. - The Trump administration might cut over 10,000 federal government jobs during the shutdown [38]. - The US Treasury Secretary planned to present Fed candidates to Trump after Thanksgiving [38]. - A Fed governor said recent trade tensions increased economic uncertainty, making interest rate cuts more necessary [38]. - The New York Fed's manufacturing index rose sharply in October [39]. - South Korea introduced new housing market policies [39]. - Norway planned to gradually cancel subsidies for electric vehicles [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up 0.66%. US ETFs were attracting funds at a record - breaking speed [40][41]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX down 0.23%, the French CAC40 up 1.99%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.3% [41]. - Most Asia - Pacific stock markets closed higher, with South Korea's KOSPI up 2.68% and Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1.76% [41]. - Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and ASML reported better - than - expected Q3 results [42]. Commodities - US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, but the market faced supply - surplus pressure [44]. - Precious metal futures rose due to concerns about the US government shutdown and high global public debt [44]. - JPMorgan Chase's CEO said it was reasonable to hold gold and predicted a significant rise in gold prices [45]. - Most London base metals rose, and the market was balancing various factors [45]. Bonds - The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market. China's central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the Ministry of Finance issued RMB 11 billion in bonds in Hong Kong [46]. - US Treasury yields were mixed [48]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Wednesday, and the US dollar index fell [49]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released include Japan's core machinery orders, Australia's unemployment rate, and the US's PPI, retail sales, etc. [51]. - Key events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, speeches by central bank officials, and press conferences [53].

Group 1: Hot News - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investments in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", supporting energy conservation and carbon reduction transformations in key industries such as electricity, steel, and non - ferrous metals [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% from 3.0% in July, while keeping the 2026 forecast at 3.1%. Trump's trade war may significantly drag down global output [4] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and address disorderly and irrational competition in industries [4] - In September, the trading volume of China's futures market was 770,214,190 lots, a 3.03% year - on - year decrease, and the trading value was 71.495835 trillion yuan, a 33.16% year - on - year increase [4] - Analyst Adam Button speculated that the US September employment report might be poor based on Powell's hints [5] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include silver, glass, crude oil, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [6] - In the holiday overseas market, the precious metals sector had a capital increase ratio of 31.95%, the non - metallic building materials sector had a 2.81% increase, and other sectors also showed different performance [6] - The table shows the daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of various major asset classes, including stocks, fixed - income, commodities, and others [8] Group 3: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., along with related ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio [9]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/10/15 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.64%报 4159.60 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.17%报 50.35 美元/盎司。 2. 国际能源署发布看空预测，WTI 原油主力合约报 58.59 美元/桶；布伦特原油 主力合约跌 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "养殖产业链数据报告 - 豆粕、油脂" [1] - Production Date: October 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Data Price and Spread - The latest aggregated average price of 43% protein soybean meal is 2,998 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous value [2]. - The current - futures price spread of soybean meal is 66 yuan/ton, a 106.25% increase from the previous value [2]. - The basis of the soybean meal spot main - contract is 128.57 yuan/ton, up 62.15% from the previous value [2]. Production, Consumption, and Inventory - The output of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 902,800 tons, a 24.09% decrease from the previous value [2]. - The daily trading volume of soybean meal is 217,900 tons, a 46.34% increase from the previous value [2]. - The apparent consumption of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 1,021,900 tons, a 14.08% decrease from the previous value [2]. - The inventory of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 941,100 tons, an 11.23% decrease from the previous value [2]. Group 3: Oil Data Inventory - The inventory of palm oil in China is 547,600 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous value [5]. - The inventory of rapeseed oil in China is 569,000 tons, a 3.02% decrease from the previous value [5]. - The inventory of soybean oil in Chinese pressing plants is 1,265,100 tons, a 1.31% increase from the previous value [5]. Price Spread and Basis - The current - futures price spread of palm oil in China is - 39 yuan/ton, a 166.10% decrease from the previous value [5]. - The current - futures price spread of rapeseed oil in China is 402 yuan/ton, a 24.07% increase from the previous value [5]. - The current - futures price spread of soybean oil and palm oil in China is - 808 yuan/ton, a 9.72% decrease from the previous value [5]. - The basis of the palm oil spot main - contract is 102 yuan/ton, a 331.82% decrease from the previous value [5]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil spot main - contract is 362.75 yuan/ton, a 110.90% increase from the previous value [5]. - The basis of the soybean oil spot main - contract is 299.05 yuan/ton, a 21.15% increase from the previous value [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market presents a complex and diverse situation. In the overnight night - market, London basic metals mostly declined, international oil prices fell, and international precious metals generally rose. There are also significant policy adjustments and industry - specific news in various sectors such as macro, energy - chemical, metal, black - series, and agricultural products futures, as well as in the financial and industrial fields [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - London basic metals: LME tin dropped 4.61% to $35,350/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.62%; LME copper fell 4.54% to $10,374/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.19%; LME aluminum dropped 1.88% to $2,746/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.35%; LME nickel fell 1.79% to $15,215/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.41%; LME zinc dropped 0.86% to $2,984.50/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.65%; LME lead fell 0.76% to $2,014.50/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.27% [3]. - International oil prices: WTI crude oil's main contract fell 5.32% to $58.24/barrel, with a weekly decline of 4.34%; Brent crude oil's main contract fell 4.8% to $62.09/barrel, with a weekly decline of 3.78% [4]. - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 1.58% to $4,035.50/ounce, with a weekly increase of 3.24%; COMEX silver futures rose 0.76% to $47.52/ounce, with a weekly decline of 0.94% [5]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The Ministry of Transport will start charging a special port fee for US - related ships from October 14 to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese shipping enterprises [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce urges the US to correct its wrong actions regarding the inclusion of Chinese entities in the export control "Entity List" [8]. - Israel achieved its combat goals after announcing a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip [8]. - The trading rules of the container shipping index (European route) futures contracts will be adjusted, including changes in the daily limit and trading margin ratio, and a limit on the maximum number of intraday opening positions [8]. - As of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 45.9 points compared to the previous period, while the China Export Containerized Freight Index fell 6.7% [9]. - China's economy has a stable foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, and will continue to expand high - level opening - up [11]. - A Fed governor is worried about the weakening labor market [11]. - China's export control is not a ban on exports, and compliant applications for civilian use can be approved [11]. - Hamas will counterattack if Israel resumes military operations in Gaza [12]. Energy - Chemical Futures - The trading rules of butadiene rubber, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, pulp, and offset printing paper futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange will be adjusted, including changes in the daily limit and trading margin ratio [14][16]. - Last week, the sample demand for ethylene glycol in China increased by 1.18% to 553,600 tons [16]. Metal Futures - The trading rules of nickel and tin futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be adjusted, including changes in the daily limit and trading margin ratio [18]. - Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel inventories increased, while lead and tin inventories decreased [19]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 16% [19]. - Dynamic Mining expects the bauxite mining volume to increase by more than 50 million tons [19]. - A large recycled lead smelter in East China resumed production and is expected to produce over 15,000 tons of refined lead in October [20]. - An accident occurred at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile, resulting in the death of a worker [21]. - Australia is considering setting a minimum price for key minerals and investing in new rare - earth projects [23]. Black - Series Futures - In September, the total steel export volume of 32 domestic ports increased by 2.17% month - on - month, with different trends in different ports [25]. - Liansteel's CSP production line will be shut down for renovation from October 12, affecting the daily hot - rolled production by 4,000 tons [26]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 and 45 ports increased, while the daily ore - handling volume decreased [26]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the daily pig iron output decreased [26]. - Mainstream coke enterprises believe that the coke market is not ready for a price increase and should control or suspend coal procurement [26]. - In late September 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased, and the daily output of crude steel and pig iron decreased, while the daily output of steel increased [28]. Agricultural Product Futures - As of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.20%, production decreased by 0.73%, and exports increased by 7.69% [30]. - Malaysia expects the production of crude palm oil to increase in 2026, with an average price of RM3,900 - 4,100 per ton [30]. - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% (ITS data) and 19.37% (AmSpec data) compared to the same period last month [31][32]. - In the 41st week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.2893 million tons, with an operating rate of 35.99%, lower than the forecast [32]. - In September, Guangxi's sugar sales decreased, and the industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan increased [34]. Financial Market Finance - A - share market: After reaching a new stage high, the three major A - share indexes adjusted. Institutions believe that the core factors driving the market remain unchanged, and focus on policy - focused and high - performance sectors [36]. - Brokerage strategies: Brokers are optimistic about the fourth - quarter and cross - year market, focusing on technology growth and cyclical sectors [36]. - A - share performance: As of October 12, 82.35% of the 51 A - share listed companies that disclosed their third - quarter performance forecasts were positive [36]. - IPO and inspection: Two companies were selected for on - site inspection of their IPOs, and some companies passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's listing hearing [37][40]. - Fund issuance: In October, the number of newly issued funds increased significantly, with equity funds accounting for 76.7% [39]. - Company responses: Some companies responded to market rumors, such as Zhongji Innolight and Zhipu [39][40]. - Brokerage views: CITIC Securities recommends focusing on upstream resource and traditional manufacturing sectors [40]. Industry - The 138th Canton Fair will open on October 15, with record - high exhibition scale, indicating that China's foreign trade may continue to grow resiliently [41]. - The supervision of personal business loans flowing into the real estate market has been strengthened, and the risks of such loans are emerging [43]. - "Report - price consistency" will be implemented in the non - auto insurance field to promote high - quality development [43]. - China's manned deep - sea exploration has achieved important progress during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [44]. - Australia is considering setting a minimum price for key minerals and investing in rare - earth projects [44]. - The global 300mm wafer factory equipment expenditure is expected to reach $374 billion from 2026 - 2028 [44]. Overseas - South Korea's economic deputy prime minister will visit the US to discuss economic and financial issues with the US Treasury Secretary [45]. - Ray Dalio warns that the US government's debt growth is too fast [47]. - South Korea's 20 - 29 - year - old population was surpassed by the over - 70 - year - old population last year [48]. International Stock Market - Global central bank governors will discuss stock market bubbles and potential crash risks [49]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun has cashed out $113 million by selling company stocks in October [49]. - Warner Bros Discovery rejected Paramount Skydance's acquisition proposal [50]. Commodity - International spot gold prices exceeded $4,000/ounce, and banks issued risk warnings [51]. - The silver price rose above $50/ounce, causing chaos in the London silver market [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is in a complex situation. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle provides an upward - driving logic for copper prices. With mining - end disturbances and the expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, although the market is currently in a state of shock, the copper price is expected to mainly fluctuate upwards as it has previously broken through the shock range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. The US September CPI report is expected to be postponed from the original October 15 release but may still be released before the Fed's FOMC policy meeting on October 28 - 29. Mining - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama have intensified market concerns about supply. As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.30 dollars/ton and RC was - 4.03 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. In September, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. Future production is expected to continue to decline. The direction of Document No. 770 of 2025 by the National Development and Reform Commission is unclear, which may affect the scrap - copper operating rate. On the demand side, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, along with new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI, strengthens downstream expectations. Although the real - estate sector has a negative impact, there is overall rigid support [1]. Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On October 9, 2025, the LME official price was 10875 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 8.5 dollars/ton [3]. Supply Side - As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.3 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.03 cents/pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous period. As of October 9, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 88,200 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, an increase of 275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 338,200 short tons, an increase of 2,638 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on October 10, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Red dates rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal rose over 1%. Container shipping to Europe and live pigs dropped over 3%, and eggs and polysilicon fell over 2%. Many other commodities also had varying degrees of decline [5]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:21 on October 10, polysilicon 2511, cotton yarn 2601, and rapeseed meal 2601 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2512, Shanghai silver 2512, and rebar 2601 had large - scale capital outflows [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened high, declined during the day, and closed flat. Due to mine - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the failure of Panama to resume production, supply concerns increased. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. Although the real estate sector is a drag, new technologies support downstream demand. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle, copper prices are expected to rise mainly in a volatile manner [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the holiday, lithium carbonate opened and closed lower. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in the peak season. After the Tibetan Mining obtained the mining right, the supply - demand remains loose. The market is in the stage of shock consolidation [10][11]. Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The consumption peak season is over, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has recovered, and the expected production in October is high. The downstream demand is affected by funds and rainfall. With the weakening of crude oil prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [13][14]. PP - The downstream PP operating rate has increased slightly, but the peak - season demand is less than expected. With the increase in supply and the decline in crude oil prices, PP is expected to decline in a volatile manner [15]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but the performance is not as expected. With the increase in supply and the decline in crude oil prices, plastic is expected to decline in a volatile manner [17]. PVC - The PVC operating rate has increased, but the downstream demand is low. The export expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. With the cost weakening, PVC is expected to decline under pressure [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed higher. The supply is expected to gradually recover, and the demand remains stable. The market will fluctuate within a narrow range [20]. Urea - Urea opened and closed lower. The supply is high, and the demand is affected by weather and holidays. The futures price has fallen below the key level, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the spot market [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 10, 2025, the urea futures market opened low and continued to decline, with the price falling below the key integer mark of 1,600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased significantly. The weakness in the spot market, affected by weather conditions, led to a decrease in demand and a drop in prices, which in turn dragged down the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the spot market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened low and continued to decline on this day, and the trading sentiment in the spot market did not improve. During the holiday, upstream factories carried out many maintenance operations, resulting in a slight decrease in daily production, but the high supply pressure remained above 190,000 tons. Nationwide rainfall affected agricultural operations, reducing urea demand and delaying the farming season. Downstream factories were on holiday during the National Day, with a significant decline in the operating load of compound fertilizer factories compared to the same period last year. After the holiday, as factories resume production and the weather improves, terminal purchasing is expected to improve. The inventory in upstream factories increased by about 17% compared to last week [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,612 yuan/ton, closed at 1,597 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.36%. The trading volume was 338,864 lots, an increase of 28,175 lots. Among the top twenty long and short positions in the main contract, long positions increased by 10,163 lots, and short positions increased by 18,454 lots [2]. - Spot: The futures market declined significantly the previous day, and the trading sentiment in the spot market did not improve. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton, with individual factories in Henan having even lower transaction prices, and factories in Hebei having higher quotes [1][5]. Warehouse Receipt Information - On October 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,017, remaining the same as the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes and the futures closing price both decreased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis for the January contract at - 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: On October 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 199,400 tons, remaining the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.25% [11].

Key Points from the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - **Overall Inventory and Related Indicators**: - The current total port inventory is 14,024.5, a week - on - week increase of 24.22. The previous week's inventory was 14,000.28 [1]. - The current daily average port clearance volume is 327, a week - on - week decrease of 9.40. The previous week's volume was 336.4 [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory is 9,046.19, a week - on - week decrease of 990.60. The previous week's inventory was 10,036.79 [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill imported ore daily consumption is 299.14, a week - on - week increase of 0.34. The previous week's consumption was 298.8 [1]. - The current arrival volume is 2,608.7, a week - on - week increase of 248.20. The previous week's arrival volume was 2,360.5 [1]. - The current 126 - mine iron concentrate powder output is 39.52, a week - on - week increase of 0.16. The previous week's output was 39.36 [1]. - The current daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 241.54, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27. The previous week's output was 241.81 [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill blast furnace start - up rate is 84.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The previous week's rate was 84.29% [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill capacity utilization rate is 90.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The previous week's rate was 90.65% [1]. - The current 247 - steel - mill profitability rate is 56.28%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00 percentage points. The previous week's rate was 56.71% [1]. - **Port Inventory by Variety Structure**: - For coarse powder, the current inventory is 10,985.4, a week - on - week increase of 68.96. The previous week's inventory was 10,916.44 [1]. - For lump ore, the current inventory is 1,730.3, a week - on - week increase of 8.17. The previous week's inventory was 1,722.13 [1]. - For pellet, the current inventory is 259.09, a week - on - week decrease of 19.56. The previous week's inventory was 278.65 [1]. - For iron concentrate powder, the current inventory is 1,049.71, a week - on - week decrease of 33.35. The previous week's inventory was 1,083.06 [1]. - For trade ore, the current inventory is 9,144.92, a week - on - week increase of 83.08. The previous week's inventory was 9,061.84 [1]. - For Brazilian ore, the current inventory is 5,536.53, a week - on - week increase of 182.01. The previous week's inventory was 5,354.52 [1]. - For Australian ore, the current inventory is 5,780.43, a week - on - week decrease of 135.76. The previous week's inventory was 5,916.19 [1].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - China takes a solid step in extraterritorial jurisdiction, with the Ministry of Commerce announcing export controls on relevant rare earth items and technologies, and adding 14 foreign entities to the unreliable entity list. It also implements export controls on items like superhard materials, some rare earth equipment and raw materials, some medium and heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [2]. - Three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjust the technical requirements for new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027. The pure - electric driving range of plug - in hybrid and extended - range passenger cars is adjusted from 43 kilometers to no less than 100 kilometers [2]. - The consumer market shows good growth during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays this year. Domestic tourism spending reaches 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The average daily sales revenue of consumption - related industries nationwide increases by 4.5% year - on - year, with commodity consumption and service consumption increasing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [2]. - With the continuous advancement of environmental protection production restrictions, most steel mills' sintering machine production restriction ratio increases from 30% to 40% - 50%. Some steel mills' existing iron ore inventories may not last until the end of the production restriction on the 20th. If transportation restrictions continue, raw material supply shortages may lead to blast furnace shutdowns or reduced production loads, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission formulates the application and allocation rules for grain import tariff quotas in 2026. The total cotton import tariff quota in 2026 is 894,000 tons, with 33% being state - trading quotas. The total grain import tariff quotas are 963,600 tons for wheat (90% state - trading quotas) and 720,000 tons for corn (60% state - trading quotas) [3]. 2. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Other Summaries 3.1 Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, coking coal, live pigs, Shanghai copper, and crude oil [4]. - Night - session performance: The report presents the night - session price changes and position - increasing ratios of commodity futures main contracts [4]. - Capital proportion of each commodity plate: Non - metallic building materials account for 2.61%, precious metals 31.86%, oilseeds 10.16%, soft commodities 2.55%, non - ferrous metals 20.98%, coal - coking - steel - ore 12.52%, energy 2.93%, chemicals 11.80%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.48% [5]. - Plate positions: The report shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [6]. 3.2 Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.32 | 1.32 | 17.37 | | | SSE 50 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 12.51 | | | CSI 300 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 19.68 | | | CSI 500 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 31.84 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.28 | 0.70 | | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.29 | - 0.38 | 33.36 | | | German DAX | 0.06 | 3.06 | 23.62 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.77 | 8.12 | 21.77 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.41 | 1.70 | 16.35 | | | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.15 | 0.19 | - 0.81 | | Fixed - Income | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.07 | 0.09 | - 0.76 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | 0.02 | - 0.56 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index, WTI Crude Oil | - 0.92, - 1.68 | - 0.42, - 1.58 | 0.88, - 14.49 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.60 | 3.06 | 51.51 | | | LME Copper | 1.01 | 4.67 | 22.72 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 2.92 | 2.92 | 33.88 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.56 | 1.62 | - 8.37 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.12 | - 6.05 | [8]