Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market withstood the shock of the disappointing non - farm payroll data, risk appetite quickly recovered, and the macro - logic shifted to interest - rate cut trading. Risk assets generally rose in price. Overseas, the Fed's "independence" was challenged, and the increasing weight of dovish members strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged again, with July's import and export data exceeding expectations and inflation improving month - on - month. [6] - In the future, the weakening of the US dollar after the non - farm payroll shock is a key macro - factor. Globally, the divergence between sentiment and reality needs to converge, and the pressure of tariffs on the global economy will lead to the re - pricing of risk assets. Domestically, the cooling of overseas sentiment, combined with the economic downward pressure and the failure of policy expectations, will cause the "anti - involution" market to pause, and both the stock and commodity markets will face correction pressure. However, the flexibility of macro - policies may lead to the introduction of unexpected policies. [7] Section Summaries 1. Asset Classes - Overseas, most global major stock markets rose, the VIX index plunged, the BDI index rose continuously, the US dollar index declined, non - US currencies generally benefited, commodity trends were divided, oil prices dropped dragging down the CRB index, while gold and copper rose. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged, July's import and export data exceeded expectations, and inflation improved month - on - month with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months. [6][10] 2. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rose slightly, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger. The stock market generally rose, with the growth - style stocks rising more significantly than value - style stocks, and the market risk preference increased. The domestic commodity sectors were mixed, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.86% weekly, 5 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 5 falling. [6][16] 3. Capital Flows - Last week, the overall capital in the commodity futures market flowed in slightly. The energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, grain, oilseeds, agricultural products, and soft commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - ferrous and soft commodity sectors had obvious outflows. [19] 4. Product Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while the top - falling ones were fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt. [23] 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also declined. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decrease in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, chemicals, and non - ferrous sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the agricultural products and grain sectors saw an obvious increase. [29] 6. Macro Logic - Stock Index - Last week, the four major domestic stock indices fluctuated at high levels after rising and then falling. Both growth and value stocks rose, market sentiment improved significantly, stock index valuations increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP was under pressure. [44] 7. Macro Logic - Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index was under pressure and fluctuated, inflation expectations rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality were intertwined. [46] 8. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, both the stock and commodity markets rose, and the commodity - stock return difference declined slightly. The domestic - priced commodities were more resilient, and the "anti - involution" market continued with the domestic - strong and overseas - weak style of commodities remaining. [54] 9. Macro Logic - US Treasury Bonds - The yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread was stable, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated upwards. [64] 10. Macro Logic - US Economy - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" showed resilience, the impact of tariffs on the economy was initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasury bonds fluctuated around 0. [72] 11. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 - 4.25% is 86.6%, significantly higher than the previous week. There are expectations of further interest - rate cuts in October or December, with a probability of about 40% for 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. [81] 12. China's Economic Data - In July 2025, China's import and export data both exceeded expectations. The inflation data showed that CPI and PPI improved month - on - month, with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months year - on - year. [101][108] 13. "Anti - Involution" Market - The "anti - involution" market in the domestic commodity futures market may pause due to various factors, but the cooling does not mean a reversal. The essence of this market lies in the understanding of "anti - involution". [7][114] 14. "Involution" Analysis - "Involution" refers to the vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources but do not increase overall revenue. It includes low - price competition, homogeneous competition, and "race - to - the - bottom" in marketing. Local governments also contribute to involution through improper policies. The harm of involution is significant at the macro, meso, and micro levels. [119][121][125] - To combat "involution", it is necessary to coordinate supply and demand sides, combine an effective market with an active government, and strengthen industry self - discipline. [136] 15. This Week's Focus - This week, important events include the RBA's interest - rate decision, OPEC's monthly oil market report, US CPI data, and speeches by Fed officials. [163]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, while oil prices declined due to OPEC's production increase. Base metals showed mixed performance. The financial market had various developments including corporate dividends, fund self - purchases, and investment strategies. Industries such as real estate, agriculture, and manufacturing also had significant events [2][27][34] - The report suggests focusing on five strong industrial trend industries in asset allocation and avoiding unclear capital relay trading [29] Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - COMEX gold futures rose 0.13% to $3458.2 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.72%. COMEX silver futures rose 0.56% to $38.51 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 4.28%. The rise was due to policy concerns and increased market uncertainty [2] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil futures declined. U.S. oil fell 0.83% to $63.35 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 5.91%. Brent crude fell 0.17% to $66.32 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 4.81%, affected by OPEC+ production increase [2] - London base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper, zinc, and aluminum rose, while nickel, lead, and tin declined slightly. The market was significantly affected by Fed policies and tariffs [2] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The 8th - 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum will be held from August 19th to 20th [4] - Five futures exchanges issued程序化交易 management measures to strengthen supervision [4] - In July, national passenger car retail sales were 1.826 million, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.728 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [5] - As of August 8th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index and the China Export Container Freight Index declined [5] - In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year. The average CPI from January to July decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [7] - Fed Governor Bowman supports interest rate cuts in the remaining three meetings this year [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of August 7th, PVC social inventory increased 7.49% month - on - month to 776,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [9] - As of August 7th, the weekly output of Chinese styrene factories was 359,200 tons, a decrease of 0.64%. The capacity utilization rate was 77.73%, a decrease of 1.19% [9] Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new registered brands for polysilicon futures [11] - Last week, the nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 389,800 wet tons to 10.3334 million wet tons, an increase of 3.92% [13] - Last week, copper, zinc, nickel, and tin inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while aluminum and lead inventories decreased [14] - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo Mine will stop production starting from August 10th with no short - term resumption plan [14] Black - Series Futures - Due to rainfall, 12 out of 21 Inner Mongolia power coal mines reduced production or stopped production, with a total capacity of 67.5 million tons. Nine open - pit mines will resume production on the evening of August 8th [16] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises increased by 0.34% to 74.03%. Coke daily output increased, inventory decreased, and coking coal inventory decreased [16] - On August 8th, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points. The profitability of steel mills increased by 3.03 percentage points [16] - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 and 47 Chinese ports increased, and the daily handling volume increased [18] - Coke started the sixth round of price increase, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan [18] - Last week, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 9.42% to 71,700 tons, while the inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises decreased by 2,500 tons [19] Agricultural Futures - As of August 8th, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 45.13 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 134.14 yuan per head [21] - Due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic far - month rapeseed procurement progress is slow, and the supply may be tight in the later stage [21] - From August 2nd to 8th, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%, 35,500 tons lower than expected [22] - In July, the FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% to 130.1 points, reaching a two - year high [24] - From August 1st to 10th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the same period last month [25] Financial Market Finance - Nearly 50 A - share companies have disclosed mid - term dividend plans, with some companies having high - value dividends and high dividend yields [27] - The Hong Kong Investment Management Limited has invested in over 100 projects, and more than 10 companies are applying for listing in Hong Kong [27] - Southern Fund self - purchased three equity - based ETFs worth 230 million yuan. This year, nearly 130 public funds have self - purchased over 5 billion yuan [27] - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on five strong industrial trend industries and avoiding unclear capital relay trading [29] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the short - term A - share market has upward resistance but is in a bull - market relay, and suggests paying attention to new low - position sub - sectors [29] - Southbound funds have a cumulative net inflow of over HK$900.8 billion this year, and Hong Kong stocks are considered a more inclusive capital haven [29] Industry - Beijing Yizhuang issued policies to support the development of embodied intelligent robots [32] - The Hubei Brain - Computer Interface Industry Innovation Development Alliance was established, and the first medical service price standard for brain - computer interfaces was released [34] - From January to July, real estate companies had over 50 executive changes, with a focus on the marketing department. Some companies are introducing composite talents [34] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and guide the reduction of about 1 million sows [34] - The first domestic shield/TBM big data mining community was established in Zhengzhou, and a vertical large - model was released [34] Overseas - U.S. Treasury Secretary believes Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and hopes the next Fed Chairman has "forward - looking thinking" [35] - The U.S. will stop providing tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30th. Electric vehicle sales may set a record in Q3 and decline in Q4 [35] - In 2024, Japan's population decreased by about 554,500, a decline of 0.44% [36] - The French government plans to save 4.2 billion euros from the national budget by canceling two public holidays in 2026 [36] International Stock Market - Jinglin Asset adjusted its U.S. stock holdings, adding technology stocks and clearing some positions [37] - The UK Competition and Markets Authority approved Boeing's acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems [37] Commodity - The gold futures price in the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a new high. "Interest - rate cut trading" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze the gold price [38] Bond - In the three months since the new policy on science and technology innovation bonds was implemented, the issuance scale reached 880.659 billion yuan, with a low average coupon rate [40] Foreign Exchange - Ten years after the "8·11 exchange - rate reform", the RMB exchange - rate marketization level has continuously improved, and two - way fluctuations have become the norm [41] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data such as Italy's July harmonized CPI annual rate final value, June trade balance, and Canada's national economic confidence index will be released [43] - There will be 54.48 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the Chinese central bank's open market. The revision plan of the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index and related indices will be implemented [45] - The 2025 (Second) China Solid - State Battery Technology Industry Development Conference will be held from August 11th to 13th in Hangzhou. Hongyuan Co., Ltd. on the Beijing Stock Exchange will be available for subscription [45]

工业刚需托底盘面 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏弱。现货市场及交投情绪疲软，受出口消息的 影响，大颗粒小颗粒价格走势背离。基本面来看，供应端有小幅减产预期，近 期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，减产占比低，目前暂不能改变供应过剩格 局，需求端，农业需求零星拿货为主，复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计将 持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，后期对尿素需求增加，但目前市场情绪均不高， 工厂以适量拿货为主，预售单的情况下，不急于原料的采购，并且秋季复合肥 以高磷复合肥为主。本期装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，出口消息扰动盘 面价格波动，但数据不及预期，行情下挫。目前下游普遍观望，情绪跟进较为 谨慎，并且复合肥工厂后期预计不会集中拿货了，短期偏空震荡为主，但后续 依然有工业需求的托底，后续行情下方空间有限。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 1400 1800 2200 2600 3000 3400 山东尿素市场主流价 ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年8月8日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.4个百分点至31.7%，较去年同期高了5.2个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，8月份国内沥青预计排产241.3万吨， 环比减少12.9万吨，减幅为5.1%，同比增加35.3万吨，增幅为17.1%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率 涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨2个百分点至29%，略高于前两年同期水平，受到资金和南方 降雨高温制约。本周，华东地区主力炼厂高负荷生产，加之天气好转后船发发货量良好，出货量增 加较多，全国出货量环比增加2.90%至28.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比 继续下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。美国允许雪佛龙恢复在委内瑞拉开采石油，或将导致中国 购买沥青原料的贴水幅度缩小。下周江苏新海、山东个别炼厂计划复产，部分地区降雨仍将影响沥 青刚需，加之船期集中到港，原油成本支撑走弱，预计近期沥青偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2510合约下跌1.58%至3478元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在3467元/吨， ...

【冠通研究】 智利矿山引发供应预期，下游需求韧性偏强 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开高走，偏强震荡。特朗普提名经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰担任 美联储理事，任期至明年 1 月底。与此同时，将继续寻找永久性的替代人选。基本面来 看，智利铜矿事件扰动铜市场的供应预期，且伦铜库存大幅累库，供应双重扰动博弈，7 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量环比大增 3.94 万吨，同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负 值，但已经止跌回升，冶炼厂三季度有三家工厂有检修计划，冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副 产品弥补亏损，目前淡季下需求疲软，终端需求萎缩，抢出口的情况下，需求有前置， 透支后期需求，市场交投情绪不温不火。铜半成品后续被征收关税，可能将影响出口需 求。上期所库存依然在低位，暂未大幅累库，支撑盘面价格。综合来看，美联储降息预 期依然在博弈，近日降息预期不断地增强，美元指数低位震荡，市场宏观与基本面博弈 下，沪铜维持窄幅波动，下游疲软的需求下，市场看空情绪浓厚，但目前国内上期所的 低位库存带来强支撑，下方支撑行情关注 78000 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: As of August 8th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium rose over 7%, while SC crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. fell over 2%. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into gold, carbonate lithium, and soybean oil, and out of CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500 futures [4]. - **Specific Commodities**: - **Copper**: Under the game between macro and fundamentals, copper prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Although the market has a strong bearish sentiment due to weak downstream demand, the low inventory in domestic warehouses provides strong support, with the lower support level at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the expected reduction in supply and optimistic downstream production schedules, carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, the risk of supply information being false should be noted [8]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, due to the seasonal peak season for travel, the market is tight. But in the medium - to - long - term, with the planned increase in production by OPEC+ and the possible cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, the downward pressure on crude oil prices increases, and the volatility is large [10]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline in the start - up rate and the weakening of cost support, asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - **PP**: The PP industry is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended due to factors such as high inventory, slow downstream recovery, and lack of actual anti - involution policies [13]. - **Plastic**: The plastic industry is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended because of high inventory, slow new order follow - up, and lack of actual anti - involution policies, although the preparation for agricultural film may bring some boost [14][15]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. With increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory, its own fundamentals are under great pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Although the downstream demand is strong, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the resistance to price increases has emerged [17][18]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short - term, but the downward space is limited due to the support of industrial demand in the future [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Overview** - **Price Changes**: As of August 8th, carbonate lithium rose over 7%, and SC crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC rose slightly, and IM fell. Among treasury bond futures, TS, TF, and T rose, and TL fell [4]. - **Capital Flow**: As of 15:19 on August 8th, funds flowed into gold, carbonate lithium, and soybean oil futures, and out of CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500 futures [4]. **Analysis of Specific Commodities** - **Copper**: The supply is affected by the Chilean copper mine incident and inventory accumulation, and the demand is weak. Under the game between macro and fundamentals, copper prices fluctuate within a narrow range, with the lower support at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the expected reduction in supply and optimistic downstream production schedules, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the risk of supply information being false should be noted [8]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, the market is tight due to the seasonal peak season for travel. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure increases with the planned increase in production by OPEC+ and the possible cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the volatility is large [10]. - **Asphalt**: The start - up rate has declined, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but the inventory is high, and the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is high. The consumption off - season has not ended, but the preparation for agricultural film may bring some boost. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply may be reduced, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, but the market sentiment has cooled down [17][18]. - **Urea**: The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is expected to increase in the future. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short - term, but the downward space is limited [19].

铁矿石库存周度数据 研究咨询部 下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 13712.27 321.85 9013.34 298.14 2507.8 39.16 240.32 83.75 90.09 68.4 -20.00 上期 13657.9 302.71 9012.09 299.46 2240.5 39.38 240.71 83.46 90.24 65.37 -15.00 周变动 54.37 19.14 1.25 -1.32 267.30 -0.22 -0.39 0.29 -0.15 3.03 -5.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10571.32 1689.71 336.82 1114.42 本期 8984.9 4872.07 6138.1 上期 10493.62 1717.06 380.14 1067.08 上期 8921.45 4843.07 5996.85 周变动 77.7 -27.35 -43.32 47.34 周变动 63.45 29 141.25 2025/ ...

Hot News - The national policy of exempting childcare and education fees for all kindergarten seniors is expected to benefit about 12 million children this fall, reducing family expenses by 20 billion yuan [2] - S&P maintains China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" and outlook at "stable". China's macro - policies will continue to exert force in the second half of the year [2] - In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%. The total in the first seven months was 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% [2] - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves were 329.22 billion US dollars, down 2.52 billion US dollars from June. Gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces, the 9th consecutive monthly increase [2] - This week, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [3] Key Focus - Focus on urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, asphalt, and PP [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.78%, precious metals 27.77%, oilseeds 12.55%, non - ferrous metals 20.75%, soft commodities 2.49%, coal - coke - steel - ore 15.06%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 11.42%, grains 1.17%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.74% [4] Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented in the data [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% daily, 1.86% monthly, and 8.59% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.69% daily, 1.24% monthly, and 25.03% annually. In the fixed - income category, 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.12% monthly, and - 0.28% annually. In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.25% daily, - 1.97% monthly, and - 0.96% annually; London spot gold rose 0.82% daily, 3.25% monthly, and 29.44% annually [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/08/08 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.44%报 3482.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.66%报 38.53 美元/盎司。 2. 欧佩克增产打压油价，美油主力合约收跌 0.82%，报 63.82 美元/桶；布伦特 原油主力合约跌 0.81%，报 66.35 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锡涨 1.37%报 33835.00 美元/吨，LME 期锌涨 0.97%报 2815.50 美元/吨，LME 期铅涨 0.63%报 2007.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.06%报 9670.50 美元/吨。 4. 国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。菜粕涨超 1%。跌幅方面，氧化铝跌超 2%，玻 璃、纯碱、低硫燃料油（LU）跌超 1%，焦炭、热卷跌近 1%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is in a seasonal travel peak season, with US crude oil inventories at a low level. Although overall oil product inventories have increased, there are concerns about supply and demand. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, adding medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is still uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased. It is recommended to operate in a range and be cautious [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to operate in a range. The market is worried about the decline in Russian and Iranian crude oil supplies due to political factors. The US economic concerns and OPEC+ production increase plan may lead to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, increasing the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2509 fell 0.63% to 501.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 497.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 510.9 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 854 to 31,576 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 growth rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week of August 1, US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories decreased, while aviation kerosene and other oil product inventories increased [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, and its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of August 1 decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased, with gasoline demand decreasing and diesel demand increasing. The single - week supply of US crude oil products continued to decrease [4].