Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic policies and industry news. It indicates that various markets are influenced by multiple factors such as policy adjustments, supply - demand changes, and economic data fluctuations. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3399.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.40% at $37.94 per ounce. The US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September, and market risk - aversion increased [2]. - Oil prices were pressured by increased inventory and weak demand. US crude oil futures fell 1.38% to $63.08 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 0.78% to $66.11 per barrel, mainly due to an unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventory [2]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, and lead all increasing. The base metal market may remain volatile in the short term, awaiting more macro - economic and industrial data [2]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal up over 3%, and fuel oil down over 1% [3]. - International agricultural futures mostly fell, except for US soybeans which rose 2.18%, while US corn and wheat declined [4]. Important News Macroeconomic News - China adjusted the additional tariff measures on US - originated imports, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days and retaining the 10% tariff [7]. - Guangzhou plans to support the research and launch of power futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [7]. - The government introduced a personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy, with a 1 - percentage - point subsidy rate and a 90:10 split between central and provincial finances [7]. - The Fed's Barkin said the uncertainty of the US economic direction is decreasing, but it's unclear whether to focus on inflation or employment [8]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Some second - tier glass companies raised the price of 2.0mm single - layer coated glass, and prices are expected to rise further in late August [11]. - Malaysia's natural rubber production in June increased 5.9% month - on - month but decreased 14.1% year - on - year [11]. - A lithium producer's production line in Chile was shut down, causing the lithium carbonate futures contract to rise [11]. - The domestic refined oil price adjustment was suspended as the adjustment amount per ton was less than 50 yuan [11]. Metal Futures - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industry safety [13]. - From January to July 2025, domestic cathode copper production increased by 10.78% year - on - year, with a 14.84% increase in July [14]. Black - Series Futures - The customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port decreased due to system upgrades, but is expected to recover [17]. - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to implement production restrictions from August 16 to September 3, affecting about 4.1 tons of coke production [17]. - Steel companies such as Ansteel, Bengang, and Lingsteel raised product prices in September [17]. - Iron ore inventories at major ports in Australia and Brazil and in China showed a slight upward trend [18]. - A coal mine in Luliang resumed production after a 22 - day shutdown [18]. - Yunnan cement companies plan to raise prices by 20 - 40 yuan per ton [20]. Agricultural Futures - Importers holding 2025 wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and sugar import tariff quotas should return unused quotas by September 15 [22]. - China imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting August 14 [22]. - The estimated 2024/25 edible vegetable oil import volume decreased by 170,000 tons compared to the previous month [23]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may continue to rise in August [23]. - US private exporters sold 315,488 tons of corn to Mexico [23]. - EU 2025/26 soybean and soybean meal imports decreased compared to last year [25]. - The US Department of Agriculture's 2025/2026 soybean and corn production and inventory expectations differed from market expectations [25]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares continued the slow - bull trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.53%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.24%. The trading volume reached 1.91 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.25%, and the Southbound Capital net - bought HK$9.45 billion [27]. - A - share margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade [29]. - In the first seven months of this year, 53 new stocks were listed in Hong Kong, with a fundraising of about HK$127 billion [29]. - More than 50 A - share listed companies proposed interim dividend plans, with a cash dividend scale exceeding 82 billion yuan [29]. - The A - share market's M&A wave continued to heat up, with over 40 companies disclosing restructuring progress [29]. - Cambrian's stock price hit a record high, but the company refuted rumors [30]. - China Evergrande is approaching delisting [30]. - Tencent Music's Q2 total revenue increased 17.9% year - on - year, and the adjusted net profit increased 33% [31]. Industry - The domestic refined oil price adjustment was suspended [32]. - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition [32]. - Eight dry - process lithium battery separator companies reached consensus on anti - involution [32]. - 534 drugs passed the preliminary review of the 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug Catalog [33]. - The July China E - commerce Logistics Index reached a new high for the year [34]. - A national commercial factoring management method is under consultation [34]. - Suzhou adjusted the housing provident fund policy [35]. Overseas - US tariff revenue reached a new high in July, but the budget deficit also widened [36]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and threatened legal action against Fed Chairman Powell [37]. - Trump softened his attitude towards Intel's CEO [37]. - The US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [37]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points [37]. - UK employment decline in July was lower than expected, complicating the Bank of England's rate - cut decision [38]. - Eurozone and German economic sentiment indices declined in August [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthened [41]. - European stocks closed mixed, affected by corporate earnings, geopolitical situation, and Fed policy [41]. - The Japanese stock market hit a record high due to optimism about US tariff policy [41]. - Pony.ai's Q2 total revenue increased 75.9% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold down and silver up [43]. - Oil prices were pressured by inventory increase and weak demand [43]. - OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast and raised the 2026 forecast [45]. - The EIA lowered the 2025 Brent and WTI oil price forecasts [45]. - Most London base metals rose and may remain volatile in the short term [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was under pressure, with rising yields of major interest - rate bonds [46]. - Japan's newly issued 10 - year Treasury bonds had no transactions on Tuesday [46]. - US Treasury yields were mixed, with short - term yields falling and long - term yields rising [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower on Tuesday [48]. - South Korea denied media reports about the 24 - hour won trading implementation time [49]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [49]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Japan's August Reuters Tankan manufacturing/non - manufacturing sentiment index, Germany's July CPI final value, etc. [51] - Events include China's central bank open - market reverse - repo maturity, the Thai central bank's interest - rate decision, and the IEA's monthly crude oil market report [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with the LME copper inventory significantly increasing and the overseas Chilean copper mine resuming operations on the 10th. The domestic copper price is supported to some extent by the low inventory and the non - shrinking of smelters, but the overall market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong in the short term, as the market sentiment was pushed up by the suspension of production at CATL's mining end, and although the sentiment has cooled slightly today, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand side has shown increased activity [8][9]. - The crude oil market is complex. In the short term, it is tight during the peak season, but in the medium and long term, there is increasing downward pressure due to factors such as the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September, the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the IEA's adjustment of the global crude oil surplus [10]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future, affected by factors such as the decrease in asphalt production in August, the weakening of crude oil cost support, and the impact of rainfall on demand [11][12]. - The PP market is expected to fluctuate, with the downstream recovery slow, the inventory pressure high, and the cost side affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan [13]. - The plastic market is expected to fluctuate, with the consumption off - season not over, the inventory pressure large, but the potential boost from the start of agricultural film stocking [14][15]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward, with the supply increasing, the demand not substantially improved, and the inventory pressure still high [16]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the market sentiment pushed up by news, but the downstream resistant to price increases [18]. - The urea market is expected to have a weak consolidation in the short term, with the downstream demand weakening due to the impact of the parade, but the downward space limited due to export and subsequent demand support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 12, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, soda ash rose over 5%, and several other commodities also had significant increases. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell 3%, and several other commodities fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, most rose, while among treasury bond futures, most fell [4]. - As of 15:10 on August 12, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601, iron ore 2601, and lithium carbonate 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and glass 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Comment on Specific Varieties Copper - The suspension of the 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days and the US CPI data will affect the market. The supply is sufficient with the increase in copper concentrate imports, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The demand is weak due to the high - temperature and rainy season, but the terminal power grid performs well, and the inventory situation supports the domestic price to some extent [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and closed low today with an intraday increase of over 7%. The suspension of production at CATL's mining end is expected to reduce supply, and the cost side is supportive. The demand side has shown increased activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. Crude Oil - It is in the peak consumption season, with the US inventory at a low level. The OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the price is affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, the adjustment of the global surplus by the IEA, and the price adjustment of Saudi Aramco [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease in August. The downstream road asphalt construction is affected by funds and weather. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, and the cost support is weakening, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11][12]. PP - The downstream start - up rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The cost is affected by the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan. The supply may increase with new capacity, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - The start - up rate is at a medium - high level. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but there are some signs of improvement in agricultural film orders. The cost is affected by external factors, and the inventory pressure is large, so it is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is still weak. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, so it is expected to fluctuate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The price opened high and rose in the afternoon. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand is strong, but the downstream is resistant to price increases, so it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. Urea - The production is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand will be affected by the parade, but the downward space is limited due to export and subsequent demand support, so it is expected to have a weak consolidation [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened higher and moved higher today, showing a volatile and relatively strong trend. However, the trading atmosphere in the market has not improved. Upstream factories have started to cut prices to attract orders, but the effect is mediocre. The urea plant equipment has experienced multiple temporary inspections, and the daily production is currently fluctuating around 190,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease but still being high year - on - year. There is an expectation of a short - term increase in production. On the demand side, affected by the military parade, downstream melamine production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will be shut down one after another, and the operation of compound fertilizer plants will also start to decrease. The finished product inventory in the plants is rising, and the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. The inventory in the plants has decreased slightly this period, and it is expected to continue to decrease in the short term. Although the downstream has no intention to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being, the demand has resilience. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer plants, the downside space for urea is limited. Affected by the military parade this month, downstream demand will weaken in the short term, and the market will be mainly in a weak consolidation state [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened higher and moved higher, with a volatile and relatively strong trend. The trading atmosphere has not improved, and the price - cutting strategy of upstream factories to attract orders has limited effect. Urea plant equipment has had multiple temporary inspections, with daily production around 190,000 tons, decreasing month - on - month but high year - on - year. One enterprise is expected to resume production this week, with a short - term production increase expected. Downstream demand in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will be affected by the military parade, and the probability of concentrated purchases is low. The plant inventory has decreased slightly and is expected to continue to do so in the short term. The demand has resilience, and the downside space for urea is limited. The market will be in a weak consolidation state in the short term due to the military parade [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1722 yuan/ton, moved higher, and closed at 1727 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 91,810 lots, a decrease of 17,964 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 11,492 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,616 lots. Rongda Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,045 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions increased by 756 lots, Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 2,198 lots, and Hongyuan Futures' net short positions increased by 2,066 lots. On August 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,823, an increase of 200 from the previous trading day, with 200 more from Liaoning Fertilizer [2] Spot - The trading atmosphere in the spot market has not improved, and the price - cutting strategy of upstream factories to attract orders has limited effect. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,660 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable and slightly weak today, while the futures closing price increased slightly. Based on Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 81.62% [11]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Date - The report is dated August 12, 2025 [1] Industry News - The refined oil price may experience the fourth suspension this year as the international oil price rose first and then fell during the current pricing cycle, with the estimated increase in gasoline and diesel prices being only 20 yuan/ton, below the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold [3] - In July, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120% [3] - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. announced that it will no longer require overseas central bank institutions to provide a commitment letter for agreement signing to simplify the investment process for overseas central bank institutions in the market [3] - From August 4 - 10, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 508,000 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 1.259 million tons; and the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 501,000 tons [3] - Recently, the "anti - involution" trend in the paper industry has led to four price increases by packaging paper manufacturers within a month. Hebei Chensong will increase the price of its original shafts and reel paper by 100 yuan/ton starting from August 11, cancel oral orders, require orders to be accompanied by payment, and will not accept prepayments [4] Plate Performance - Key areas to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PP, and PVC [5] - Night - time performance: Non - metallic building materials increased by 2.95%, precious metals by 27.12%, oilseeds by 12.60%, non - ferrous metals by 20.90%, soft commodities by 2.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore by 15.08%, energy by 3.44%, chemicals by 11.39%, grains by 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products by 2.89% [5] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [7] Large - Class Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% daily, 2.08% monthly, and 8.82% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.25% daily, rose 0.79% monthly, and 8.63% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.19% daily, 0.35% monthly, and 23.92% year - to - date, etc. [8] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.01% monthly, and fell 0.39% year - to - date; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 0.66% year - to - date [8] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rose 0.55% daily, fell 1.90% monthly, and 0.89% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 0.17% daily, fell 8.47% monthly, and 11.90% year - to - date [8] - Other: The US dollar index rose 0.24% daily, fell 1.78% monthly, and 9.42% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged daily, fell 9.39% monthly, and 12.68% year - to - date [8]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Aspects**: Recent macroeconomic game has intensified, with tariff and trade frictions between the US and Japan, and the US and India escalating. Market risk aversion has increased, and changes in the number of senior Fed officials have affected the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 90%, and the US dollar index is under pressure to oscillate at a low level, supporting the copper price. After the Russia-Ukraine talks last Friday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may turn for the better, leading to a stronger copper price. However, the current domestic anti-involution measures have no new drivers, and the positive impact on the copper price is limited. Attention should still be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2][4]. - **Supply Aspects**: The maintenance of a smelter in Indonesia has been extended until mid-August. More copper concentrates have flowed into other countries. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. The increase in copper concentrate imports has provided smelters with abundant raw materials. Currently, copper production has not declined. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [2][4]. - **Demand Aspects**: Currently, it is the hot and rainy season, and the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good, but the construction and real estate sectors still have a negative impact. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - **US Manufacturing PMI**: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49, marking the fastest contraction rate in the past nine months, dragged down by continuous order reduction and intensified employment decline. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, lower than the previous month and the first time it fell below the boom-bust line since 2025 [9]. - **China's Economic Indicators**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a 0.4 and 0.5 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining the same as the previous month [15]. 3.2 Copper Price Trends - **Shanghai Copper**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 78,610 yuan per ton, the lowest was 78,030 yuan per ton, the weekly amplitude was 0.74%, and the interval increase was 0.11% [18]. - **LME Copper**: As of August 8, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +1.13%, closing at $9,700 per ton. The LME copper spot discount weakened, and the inventory accumulation trend of the exchange's copper inventory continued. The copper resources in the market were relatively more abundant than before the implementation of tariffs, resulting in a weaker spot discount [33]. 3.3 Copper Market News - **Chilean Copper Mine Accident**: On August 5, news reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, was facing one of the most severe safety challenges in its history. After several days of emergency rescue, rescuers found the body of the last missing miner at the El Teniente mine, and all five miners trapped in the tunnel collapse accident on Thursday had died. This accident, which caused six deaths, was the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades and prompted the company to launch a comprehensive investigation [21]. - **Chifeng Gold's Project**: On August 7, Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) announced that its subsidiary's Laos Saiban SND gold-copper mine project had completed the first-phase resource exploration. According to the resource estimation report issued by SRK China based on the JORC standard, as of June 30, 2025, the project (porphyry gold-copper deposit) had proven mineral resources of 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 grams per ton and a gold equivalent metal volume of approximately 1.069 million tons. Drilling is planned to resume after the rainy season to upgrade the resource reserves [22]. 3.4 Copper Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 428,700 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Smelter Fees**: As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. With the increase in copper concentrate imports, smelters have abundant raw materials, and currently, copper production has not declined. On the morning of June 27, 2025, the mid-year negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters set the TC/RC at $0 per dry ton and 0 cents per pound. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable [42]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August. In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [46][47]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year-on-year import volume, exceeding market expectations. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper has led to a shortage of scrap copper supply, and more scrap copper rod enterprises have shut down their production facilities. Currently, affected by copper tariffs, there is a mismatch in the global scrap copper supply and demand, which may lead to a continued decrease in domestic scrap copper imports in the future [52]. 3.5 Copper Demand - **Apparent Demand**: As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. Currently, due to the hot and rainy season, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good. From January to June 2025, China's power grid infrastructure investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The State Grid plans to invest more than 650 billion yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of +8% [57]. - **Copper Products**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The start-up rate was lower than expected, and downstream enterprises were cautious in taking delivery. Refined copper rod enterprises have reduced or stopped production, and enterprises have no intention to stockpile, keeping the inventory level low. Currently, it is the off-season, and downstream enterprises are not willing to accept high copper prices, resulting in an unexpected reduction in production by refined copper rod enterprises. The start-up rate of copper tube enterprises has shown a downward trend, with insufficient follow-up of downstream orders. With copper prices at a high level, the start-up rate has continued to decline. The production of terminal household appliances such as air conditioners is not high, and due to the 50% tariff on copper products imposed by the US, the export volume has decreased [62]. - **Power Grid Engineering**: From January to June, the power grid project investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year-on-year respectively. The power grid project remains a downstream rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [66]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: From January to June, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.4124 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. Among them, the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The completed area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8%. Among them, the completed area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a decrease of 15.5%. The real estate market continues to be weak [71]. - **Automobile and New Energy Automobile Industry**: In June, automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and 8.1% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.8% of the total sales volume of new vehicles [76]. 3.6 Copper Inventory - **Global Exchanges**: After the implementation of copper tariffs, the siphon effect of US copper has ended, and the LME copper inventory has started to accumulate significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.95% and a month-on-month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation rate of COMEX has slowed down, and the COMEX copper inventory was 264,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.72% and a month-on-month increase of 18.23% [83]. - **Domestic Inventory**: On August 7, the total spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 80,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the 31st, and a decrease of 300 tons from the 4th. The change in the bonded area inventory was limited. During the week, the export goods from smelters did not enter the warehouse, and the imported goods arriving at the port were directly cleared and imported into the domestic market, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [87].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Beijing optimizes housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy unlimited homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, and strengthens housing provident fund support in four aspects [2] - China conducts normal economic and trade energy cooperation with Russia, and will take reasonable energy security measures based on national interests [2] - In Q2, China's current account had a surplus of $135.1 billion, while the capital and financial account had a deficit of the same amount [2] - In July, China's CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.8% year - on - year. PPI fell 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year [3] - The Trump administration will clarify that imported gold bars should not be taxed [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Beijing optimizes housing purchase restrictions and strengthens housing provident fund support [2] - China responds to the potential U.S. secondary tariffs on China for buying Russian oil [2] - China's Q2 current account and capital and financial account balance data are released [2] - China's July CPI and PPI data are announced with corresponding interpretations [3] - The Trump administration will clarify the tariff policy on gold bars [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, lithium carbonate, caustic soda, asphalt, crude oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.82%, precious metals 27.87%, oilseeds 12.66%, non - ferrous metals 20.64%, soft commodities 2.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.82%, energy 3.42%, chemicals 11.31%, grains 1.17%, agricultural and sideline products 2.83% [4] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index - 0.12% daily, 1.73% monthly, 8.45% annually; S&P 500 0.78% daily, 0.79% monthly, 8.63% annually, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures 0.03% daily, 0.14% monthly, - 0.26% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures 0.02% daily, 0.11% monthly, - 0.66% annually, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index 0.07% daily, - 1.90% monthly, - 0.89% annually; WTI crude oil - 0.81% daily, - 8.47% monthly, - 11.90% annually, etc. [6] - Others: US Dollar Index 0.18% daily, - 1.78% monthly, - 9.42% annually; CBOE Volatility Index - 8.57% daily, - 9.39% monthly, - 12.68% annually [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, the urea futures market first rose and then fell. Affected by the high price of the Indian tender and the opening of exports to India, the market soared and then declined. The downstream's ability to bear high prices is insufficient. Although there is demand resilience, there is no willingness to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being. It is mainly based on replenishing stocks at low prices. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer factories, the downside space for urea is limited, and it will mainly undergo weak consolidation in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, affected by the rising futures price, the Indian tender price, and export news, the trading atmosphere in the urea spot market was hot, and the spot price increased. In the second half of the week, the export situation was less than expected, and the downstream support was insufficient, so the price stabilized and declined. Since the weekend, the downstream trading has been mediocre, and the price has mainly been adjusted downward [3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume of the main contract last week was 15.6933 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 163,000 tons; the open interest was 5.7222 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 370,600 tons. After the Indian tender price increased and China opened the export of urea to India, the futures price soared to a high of 1,791 yuan/ton, but then the export volume was less than expected, and the futures price corrected. Last week, the decline of urea futures was weaker than that of the spot, and the basis weakened [5] Urea Supply - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly output of urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.87%; the average daily output was 189,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 tons. It is expected that no enterprise's equipment will be shut down next week, and one shut-down enterprise will resume production. As of August 11, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,700 tons, and the operating rate was 81.62% [12] Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat compared to the previous week. As of August 8, the quotation of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, with an increasing operating load. Sales are mainly based on pre-sales orders, and the finished product inventory in the factories is continuously increasing. Due to the general bearish sentiment in the market and the lack of preparations for large-scale inventory replenishment by compound fertilizer factories, the purchase of raw material urea is mainly based on buying at low prices and making appropriate replenishments. At present, the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. From August 1 to August 7, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and 2.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From August 1 to August 7, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 61.1%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period and 11.85 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, the number of shut-down and maintenance equipment increased during the week, and the downstream demand was weak. It is expected that the operating load will continue to decline in the short term [17] Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 3.24%, and 563,300 tons higher than the same period last year. During the week, the urea output decreased, and the downstream's low-price purchasing increased, so the inventory in the urea factories decreased. It is expected that the urea inventory will continue to decline next week. The inventory of the port samples was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As the export goods gradually left the port, the port inventory decreased [19] International Market - China will export a limited quantity of urea to India, with an expected export volume of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. The price of the IPL Indian tender is higher than the market expectation, and India's demand for urea is still increasing. It is expected that a new tender will be launched in September. Except for India and Brazil, the demand in other global markets has declined to varying degrees. It is expected that the international urea price will have a correction trend before the new demand from these two countries emerges. As of August 8, the FOB price of small-grain urea in China was reported at $460/ton, a week-on-week increase of $50/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was reported at $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $512.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $457.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton. As of August 8, the FOB price of large-grain urea in China was reported at $467.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $30/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in Egypt was $502.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $12.5/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Arabian Gulf was $456.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Baltic Sea was $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $15/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $465/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7.5/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was reported at $446.5/ton, a week-on-week decrease of $12.5/ton [21]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 11 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 11 盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，碳酸锂封涨停，涨幅 8%，多晶硅 涨超 6%，工业硅涨近 5%，红枣涨超 3%，焦煤涨近 3%，合成橡胶、棕榈油、烧碱 涨超 2%。跌幅方面，鸡蛋跌超 3%，集运欧线跌超 2%。沪深 300 股指期货（IF） 主力合约涨 0.41%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力合约涨 0.01%，中证 500 股指期 货（IC）主力合约涨 1.07%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约涨 1.61%。2 年 期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌 0.01%，5 年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌 0.08%， 10年期国债期货（T）主力合约跌0.11%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.55%。 资金流向截至 08 月 11 日 15:19，国内期货主力合约资金流入方面，中证 1000 2509 流入 62.69 亿，沪深 300 2509 流入 30.38 亿，中证 500 2 ...