1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also covers important macro, industrial, and overseas news, reflecting the complex influence of geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data on market trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.95% at $3311.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.06% at $36.93 per ounce [2]. - International oil prices strengthened slightly, with the U.S. oil main contract up 0.37% at $68.18 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 0.62% at $70.01 per barrel [2]. - London base metals mostly rose, except for LME copper which fell 1.67% to $9665.00 per ton [2]. - Domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with coking coal, low - sulfur fuel oil etc. rising over 1%, and methanol falling nearly 1% [3]. - CBOT agricultural product futures main contracts mostly fell, with soybean, corn, and wheat futures all down [3]. Important News Macro News - Houthi attacks in the Red Sea led to two deaths on a ship. June's new - energy passenger vehicle domestic retail sales reached 1.111 million, up 29.7% year - on - year [6]. - Trump plans to impose tariffs on imports from 14 countries starting August 1. China opposes tariff wars [6]. - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will visit China from July 12 - 18. The U.S. Treasury Secretary plans to meet with Chinese officials [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - From July 7 - 13, the number of New Zealand log pre - arrival ships at 18 ports decreased by 31% week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 26% [9]. - As of July 7, domestic asphalt social inventory increased 0.2% week - on - week [9]. - India plans to import about 10% of cooking LPG from the U.S. starting in 2026 [9]. - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to $65 per barrel in autumn and rise to $70 next year [10]. - Propylene futures will be listed on July 22, 2025, with specific trading and margin rules [10]. - Vietnam's June rubber exports increased 47.8% month - on - month [11]. - EIA expects WTI and Brent crude oil average prices to change in the next two years [11]. Metal Futures - The polysilicon market price increased significantly, and there are expectations of price increases in the silicon wafer and component sectors [13]. - The UK may not reach a steel and aluminum trade agreement with the U.S. this week but expects to reach one by the end of the month [13]. - The supply - demand structure of the silicon material market is basically balanced, and it is in the de - stocking stage [13]. - Platinum and palladium futures research and development are in the final stage [15]. - Global gold ETFs increased by $38 billion in the first half of the year [15]. Black - Series Futures - On July 8, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 620,800 tons compared to last Monday [17]. - Hebei Iron and Steel Group increased its procurement of ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese in July [17]. - The inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 30,800 tons [17]. - Shandong cement enterprises started a new round of staggered production [18]. Agricultural Product Futures - In June, the开机 rate of major oil mills in China was high, and it is expected to remain so in July. The inventory of soybean meal is expected to rise above 1 million tons by the end of July [21]. - U.S. importers will bear the cost of the increase in palm oil tariffs [22]. - As of June 30, EU's 2024/25 soft wheat exports and imports of various agricultural products are reported [22]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and relevant regulatory and market events occurred [24][25]. - The China Securities Association plans to revise the management method for the professional reputation information of the securities industry [26]. - Northbound funds' shareholding value and quantity increased in Q2 2025, and they increased their positions in some industries [26]. - Many wealth management products were terminated early due to the strong stock market [27]. - The number of newly - registered private securities investment funds increased significantly in the first half of the year [27]. - Shein submitted a secret listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [27]. Industry - 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative [29]. - The photovoltaic sector responded to "anti - involution", and polysilicon prices rose [29]. - Four freight platforms signed an self - discipline convention to protect truck drivers' rights [29]. - June's national passenger vehicle retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with new - energy vehicles performing well [29]. Overseas - Trump called for the Fed Chairman to resign and advocated for interest rate cuts [30]. - Global countries responded to Trump's tariff measures [30]. - The UK may miss the deadline for a steel and aluminum trade agreement with the U.S. but expects to reach it later [32]. - Macron visited the UK, and Bulgaria will adopt the euro in 2026 [32]. - The EU will investigate Italy's intervention in a bank acquisition [32]. - The RBA kept the key interest rate unchanged [32]. - Germany's May exports declined, and Japan's May current account surplus increased [33][34]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks closed mixed, European stocks rose slightly. Goldman Sachs raised the S&P 500 index target [36]. - Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit decreased, and it announced a share - buyback plan [37]. Commodities - Similar to the overnight market trends, precious metals, oil, and base metals had their respective price movements. Gold ETFs had significant growth, and platinum and palladium futures preparation advanced [38][40]. Bonds - Domestic inter - bank interest - rate bonds' yields rose, and relevant bond - related optimization measures were announced [42]. - Some rating companies may simplify credit rating reports. U.S. and Japanese bond yields changed [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose slightly. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the foreign exchange market. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly [45].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 热点品种 原油： 伊朗微弱的报复行动及伊以实现全面停火，无疑将此前紧张的中东地缘风险急剧 降温，极大得缓解了市场对于原油的供给中断的担忧。目前仍需关注停火后中东 局势后续的发展，如双方是否会违反停火协议，伊朗核材料的处理，美国对伊朗 原油出口的制裁等。日前，伊朗驻联合国大使表示永远不会停止铀浓缩活动，内 塔尼亚胡称伊朗通过其核力量和导弹能力对以色列构成重大威胁，中东地缘风险 不能完全排除另外，特朗普表示中国可以继续从伊朗进口石油。基本面上，原油 进入季节性出行旺季，美国原油库存降至低位，只是最新的 EIA 报告显示美国原 油、汽油库存意外增加，加上周末 OPEC+同意在八月份将石油产量提高 54.8 万 桶/日。这超过此前市场预计的 41.1 万桶/日。不过，7 月 7 日，沙特阿美将旗 舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油 8 月对亚洲的官方售价上调至每桶较阿曼/迪拜均价高出 2.20 美元，较 7 月上涨 1 美元，超出市场预期的每桶上涨 50 至 ...

Group 1: Corn Data - The national market average price of corn is 2435.00 yuan/ton, a -0.12% week-on-week change [2] - The consumption of corn by major deep - processing enterprises is 104.12 million tons, a -0.90% week - on - week change [2] - The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 272.40 million tons, a -2.85% week - on - week change [2] - The corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises is 459.20 million tons, a -1.27% week - on - week change [2] - The settlement price of the CBOT corn main contract is 420.25 cents/bushel, a 4.02% week - on - week change [2] - The FOB price of corn in the western coastal port area of the United States is 216.73 dollars/ton, a 4.36% week - on - week change [2] - The landed duty - paid price of corn in the western coastal port area of the United States is 2022.28 yuan/ton, a 3.66% week - on - week change [2] - The basis of the corn spot main contract is 82 yuan/ton, a 51.85% week - on - week change [2] Group 2: Pig and Pork Data - The average slaughter price of commercial pigs is 14.85 yuan/kg, a 0.34% week - on - week change [3] - The closing price of the pig main contract is 14245.00 yuan/ton, a 2.70% week - on - week change [3] - The inventory of commercial pigs in comprehensive farms is 3719.93 million heads, a 0.31% week - on - week change [3] - The slaughter volume of 81 sample pig enterprises is 106784.00 heads per day, a -6.27% week - on - week change [3] - The fresh sales volume of key pork slaughtering enterprises is 645793.00 heads, a -5.46% week - on - week change [3] - The storage capacity of key slaughtering enterprises for frozen pork is 143451.00 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week change [3] - The basis of the live - pig spot main contract is 956.00 yuan/ton, a -8.87% week - on - week change [3] Group 3: Egg Data - The market price of eggs is 5.54 yuan/kg, a -3.65% week - on - week change [5] - The price difference between egg futures and spot is -869.00 yuan/500 kg, a -3.01% week - on - week change [5] - The inventory of laying hens is 12.70 billion, a -0.39% week - on - week change [5] - The egg shipment volume is 6118.04 tons, a -0.63% week - on - week change [5] - The monthly egg sales in China are 26.02 thousand tons, a -7.34% week - on - week change [5] - The egg sales in the main sales areas are 5928.27 tons, a -3.56% week - on - week change [5] - The available inventory days in the egg production link are 1.27 days, a 2.42% week - on - week change [5] - The total egg export volume from China to the world is 12711.37 tons, a -0.63% week - on - week change [5] - The basis of the egg spot main contract is -572.00 yuan/ton, a 23.54% week - on - week change [15]

| | | | 油脂 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 频度：周 | 最新值 | 前值 | 周环比 | 近一年走势 | | 棕榈油：库存：中国 | 53.51 | 53.74 | -0.43% | | | （万吨） | | | | | | 菜油：库存：中国 | 69.96 | 72.74 | -3.82% | | | （万吨） | | | | | | 压榨厂：豆油：库存： | 101.97 | 95.52 | 6.75% | | | 中国（万吨） | | | | | | 棕榈油：期现价差：中 | 174.00 | 205.00 | -15.12% | | | 国（元/吨） | | | | | | 菜油：期现价差：中国 | | | | | | （元/吨） | 132.00 | 147.00 | -10.20% | | | 豆油、棕榈油：期现价 | -567.00 | -333.00 | 70.27% | | | 差：中国 （元/吨） | | | | | | 棕榈油现货主力合约基 | 163.00 | 161.67 | 0.82% | | | 差(元/吨） | | | | ...

【冠通研究】 行情偏强整理 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走日内上涨，现货市场平稳运行为主，部分工厂开始下调 价格。基本面来看，日产变动不大，前期检修装置本期陆续有复产情况，预计 产量将有增加。需求端，农业需求状况好于工业需求，农业需求目前也维持低 位拿货，适量补库，预计本月东北华北地区都将迎来收尾，届时尿素需求将迎 来空窗期。复合肥工厂开工负荷低位，处于秋季肥生产初期阶段，订单以去化 厂内库存为主，工厂销售压力不大，秋季肥多为预收订单，工厂目前观望情绪 浓厚，对尿素保持刚需拿货。库存受上游装置检修影响，及出口快速集港的影 响，连续去化，减轻供应端压力。整体来说，目前现货端需求表现欠佳，但目 前仍处于夏季肥收尾阶段，下游仍有采购需求，叠加工厂出口订单支撑，集港 陆续进行，盘面依然有支撑，短期依旧以震荡偏强为主，继续关注出口政策情 况。 【期现行情】 【基本面跟踪】 基差方面：今日现货市场主流报价下行，期货收盘价上移；以山东地区为基 准，基差环比上个交易日走弱，9 月合约基差 47 元/吨（-15 元/吨）。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必 ...

【冠通研究】 低位库存支撑盘面 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面低开低走尾盘收涨。报收于 79620，前二十名多单量 136049 手，+3339 手；空单量 133555 手，+3630 手。 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日铜低开低走午后拉涨。美国总统特朗普 7 日表示，将从 8 月 1 日起分别对来自 日本、韩国等 14 个国家的进口产品征收 25%至 40%不等的关税。国内方面，中央财经委 员会第六次会议研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，强调 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。供 给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，现货粗炼费为-43.31 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼厂加工费预计止跌回稳，铜供应偏激的预期或将有所改善，但目前 关税博弈之下，铜库存加速抢跑至美国，希望能在关税之前到达美国境内，其他地区的 铜库存继续去化，处于库存同期低位状态。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消 费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。预计 7 ...

早盘速递 2025/7/8 热点资讯 5. 欧盟发言人表示，欧盟在与美国就原则性协议的谈判中取得了良好的进展。欧盟将继续在7月9日的截止日期前推进美国关 税贸易谈判。我们的目标仍然是在7月9日之前达成协议。 板块表现 重点关注 燃油、纯苯、玉米、尿素、沥青 夜盘表现 -1.40 -1.20 -1.00 -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.85% 贵金属, 27.45% 油脂油料, 12.25% 有色, 20.90% 软商品, 2.85% 煤焦钢矿, 13.83% 能源, 3.13% 化工, 12.77% 谷物, 1.18% 农副产品, 2.79% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,000) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also covers macro - economic news, industry policies, and corporate events, reflecting the complex and volatile nature of the current financial and economic situation. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - International oil prices rose strongly, with the US oil main contract up 1.37% at $67.92 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.84% at $69.56 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold up 0.10% at $3346.40 per ounce and COMEX silver down 0.39% at $36.94 per ounce [2]. - London base metals closed down across the board, with LME zinc down 1.51% at $2683.00 per ton, LME tin down 1.31% at $33260.00 per ton, and LME copper down 0.82% at $9784.00 per ton [2]. - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed, with fuel oil up over 1% and asphalt up nearly 1%, while rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn were down nearly 1% [3]. Important Information Macro - Information - The first round of Gaza cease - fire talks in Doha ended without an agreement as the Israeli negotiation team lacked sufficient authorization [6]. - Trump announced a 10% tariff on countries aligning with BRICS' "anti - US policies", and China opposed such tariff wars [6][7]. - As of July 7, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 6.3% to 2258.04 points [7]. - The EU is making progress in tariff - trade negotiations with the US and aims to reach an agreement by July 9 [7]. - The "Magic Seas" bulk carrier sank in the Red Sea, and the Houthi armed forces claimed responsibility [8]. - The next - possible Fed chair nominee, Wash, advocated for a rate cut and said Trump's tariffs would not cause inflation [10]. - China added 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment for work - relief projects to promote employment [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Goldman Sachs maintained its Q4 2025 Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel and 2026 at $56 per barrel, and OPEC + may increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September [13]. - As of July 7, the MEG port inventory in East China decreased, while the benzene - ethylene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 12.85% [13]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices for pure benzene futures contracts [13]. Metal Futures - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 8th consecutive month in June, reaching 73.9 million ounces [15]. - China's primary aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.6525 million tons, up 2.64% year - on - year and down 2.59% month - on - month [17]. Black - Series Futures - From January to May, China's cumulative coal production was 1.99 billion tons, with May's output hitting a record high [19]. - From June 30 to July 6, global iron ore shipments decreased, while Chinese port arrivals increased [19][20]. - A coal mine in Linfen, Shanxi, resumed production on July 5, but its output was still below normal [19]. - As of July 7, some Tangshan steel enterprises' blast furnaces were under maintenance, affecting iron - water production [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - In June, domestic soybean crushing reached a record high, and it is expected to remain high in July [23]. - As of July 4, domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days increased for the 8th consecutive week [23]. - As of July 4, cotton commercial inventory decreased, while palm oil and soybean oil inventories increased [23][24]. - As of July 7, the national imported soybean port inventory increased [25]. - India's minister called for a change in palm - oil import policy, and Argentina will export soybean meal to China for the first time [26]. - Pakistan's cotton production dropped sharply, hitting the textile industry [28]. - As of July 3, US soybean, corn, and wheat export inspection volumes were reported [28]. - As of July 5, Brazil's first - crop corn harvest rate was 97.2%, and the second - crop was 27.7% [28]. - As of July 6, the US soybean and corn good - rate were reported [28]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares closed mixed, with power and real - estate stocks rising, and innovation - drug and computing - power stocks falling [30]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose, and south - bound funds had significant net inflows [30]. - A - shares will launch specialized and innovative indices on July 21 [32]. - Quantitative trading new rules were implemented, impacting some strategies [32]. - Public funds' position - adjustment demand increased, and "discounted - share" private - placement business heated up [32]. - Jiangsu Runyang plans to complete A - share IPO by the end of 2028, and Lens Technology will list in Hong Kong on July 9 [33]. Industry - Four departments plan to have over 100,000 high - power charging facilities by 2027 [35]. - A new national standard for passenger - car braking systems will be implemented in 2026 [35]. - The first 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were fully subscribed on the first day [36]. - As of July 7, Shenzhen's second - hand housing inventory reached a new high [37]. - Wuhan will strengthen real - estate policies and promote project launches [37]. - China's shipping industry showed improved confidence in Q2 [37]. - From January to May, China's textile industry had mixed performance in output, revenue, and exports [37]. - From January to May, China's coal production hit a record high, while imports decreased [38]. - Global new ship orders decreased by 54% year - to - date, with different performances in various ship types [40]. Overseas - The US Treasury Secretary expects to announce multiple trade agreements soon [41]. - Goldman Sachs believes the Fed may cut rates in September, with a lower terminal - rate forecast [41]. - The EU aims to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week [41]. - The European Central Bank warns of increased financial - stability risks in the eurozone [41]. - Eurozone's July investor confidence and May retail sales data were reported [42]. - Germany's May industrial output showed positive growth [43]. - The UK's June housing price index had mixed performance [44]. International Stocks - US stocks closed down, with Trump's tariff announcements causing market fluctuations, while most Chinese concept stocks rose [46]. - European stocks closed mixed, affected by Trump's tariff policies and corporate news [46]. - The FBI warned of a surge in "pump - and - dump" scams targeting US stock investors [46]. Commodities - International oil prices rose, and Goldman Sachs maintained its Brent crude price forecast [47]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, supported by economic uncertainties [47]. - London base metals closed down, with traditional metals facing demand pressure [49]. Bonds - Domestic bond yields mostly rose slightly, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [50]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue multiple batches of bonds in July [50]. - US bond yields rose due to Trump's trade policies, and Japanese long - term bonds fell [50][51]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose due to Trump's tariff threats [52][54]. Upcoming Events - The China Central Bank has 13.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase due at 09:20 [56]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest - rate decision at 12:30 and hold a press conference at 13:30 [56]. - ECB's Nagel will give a speech at 22:00, and the EIA will release its monthly short - term energy outlook at 24:00 [56]. - The 12th World High - Speed Rail Congress will be held from July 8 to 11, and the E - Tang Co., Ltd. will be listed on the STAR Market [56]. - Pure benzene futures and options will be listed on the DCE starting from July 8 [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: The weak retaliatory action by Iran and the full ceasefire between Iran and Israel have significantly reduced the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, alleviating concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cannot be completely ruled out. Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, and U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level. But the latest EIA report shows an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It is recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [7][14]. - Bitumen: The bitumen开工率 has rebounded slightly, but the downstream demand is still affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which puts pressure on the crude oil market sentiment. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of bitumen at low prices [8][81]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced. The PVC开工率 has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near future, and it is mainly recommended to go short at high prices [9][100]. - L&PP: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined to a moderately low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is still large. The U.S. government's cancellation of ethane - related restrictions is beneficial to the recovery of Sino - U.S. trade. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [10][126]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC's crude oil production increased in April and May 2025, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly in the week ending June 27, 2025, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [20]. - Demand: According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased, but was lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased, while diesel weekly demand increased [36]. - Inventory: As of the week ending June 27, 2025, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased unexpectedly, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased [45]. - Geopolitical Risks: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced geopolitical risks, but risks still exist, such as Iran's uranium - enrichment activities and the situation in the Israel - Hamas negotiations [49][52]. Bitumen - Supply: The bitumen开工率 rebounded slightly last week, and the expected production in July is expected to increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [67][81]. - Demand: The downstream demand for bitumen is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The road - bitumen开工率 increased slightly, but is still at a relatively low level [74]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the bitumen refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly, but is still at the lowest level in recent years [78]. PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased slightly, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced [91][100]. - Demand: The downstream demand for PVC has not improved substantially, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. The export of PVC to India is restricted by policies and the rainy season [9][100]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 3, 2025, PVC social inventory increased slightly and is still at a relatively high level [97]. L&PP - Supply: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined. New production capacity has been put into operation, and recent maintenance devices have increased, alleviating some pressure [112][126]. - Demand: The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak. The PE and PP downstream开工率 are at relatively low levels, and the recovery is slow [118][126]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory is at a moderately low level, and the de - stocking speed is average [123][126].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of the domestic futures market on July 7, 2025, was more declines than increases. The prices of various commodities were affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical risks. Different commodities had different trends and outlooks, including high - level oscillations, low - level oscillations, and trends of being strong or weak [7]. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium closed flat after opening lower and rising higher. The average price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 60,950 yuan/ton, both up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply was relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.8%, slightly down from last week. The price of spodumene concentrate was 660 yuan/ton, up 30 dollars/ton week - on - week. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the inventory remained high. The market was affected by the idea of capacity clearance, increasing the expectation of tight supply. The tariff exemption period ended on the 9th, and there might be variables in tariffs. The market was in high - level consolidation and mainly showed a strong trend [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and fell during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 745 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. In May, the import volume of coal decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a low level this year. Domestic coal production increased this period. The inventory of ports and independent coking enterprises increased significantly, and the supply was still loose. The steel mill's demand was still rigid, but the coke price was lowered four times, and the terminal's operating rate was low in high - temperature and rainy weather. The coking coal market was expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside was limited [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. The overseas macro - environment was mainly about the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the subsequent tariff situation after the expiration of the US tariff exemption period. The employment data was better than expected, increasing the market's wait - and - see attitude towards the Fed's interest - rate cut. The tariff exemption period expired this week. The supply tightness expectation was slightly improved, but the copper inventory in other regions continued to decline. The demand was expected to enter the off - season in July, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [9]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation was greatly relieved, and the market's concern about the supply interruption of crude oil was alleviated. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It was recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply was increasing, with the production expected to reach 2.542 million tons in July, a 6.0% increase from the previous month. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The Middle East geopolitical risk was reduced, and OPEC + planned to increase production in August. It was recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased, and the upstream propane import was restricted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the downstream recovery was slow, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The plastic's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased. The upstream ethane import was restricted, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, and it was expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC's supply was decreasing, and the downstream demand was still weak. The export was restricted by policies, and the inventory was high. The real - estate market improvement needed time. It was expected to oscillate at a low level, and it was recommended to short at high prices [17]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean supply was still in surplus, and the domestic soybean import and oil - mill operating rate were high. The soybean meal inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by multiple factors. It was expected to oscillate weakly [18][19]. Soybean Oil - The international soybean oil demand was expected to increase, but the price rebound was restricted by weather and export sales. The domestic soybean - oil supply was abundant, and the inventory was rising. The terminal demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the EPA's hearing on biofuel blending targets [20]. Rebar - The rebar's supply pressure was not substantially relieved, and the demand was affected by high - temperature and rainy weather. The inventory was expected to accumulate, and the cost support was weakening. It was expected to oscillate downward, and it was recommended to short in bands [21][22]. Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil's supply was increasing, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was accumulating, and the policy implementation was slow. It was expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [23][25]. Urea - The urea's supply was expected to increase this week, and the demand was weak both in industry and agriculture. The inventory was decreasing, and the export supported the price. It was expected to oscillate strongly [26].