【冠通研究】 塑料：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年3月25日 【策略分析】 05基差逢高做空 新增兰州石化HDPE、独山子石化新全密度1线等检修装置，塑料开工率下降至86%左右，目前开 工率降至中性水平。春节假期后第七周，PE下游开工率环比继续回升，农膜原料库存继续回升，但 农膜订单开始下降，两者均处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单继续小幅回升，但整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位水平。下游逐步复工，2月底石化去库加快，近期去库一般，目前石化 库存降至近年农历同期偏低水平。美国加征关税不利于塑料下游制品出口。上游原油价格企稳反弹 给予成本支撑。供应上，新增产能万华化学、内蒙古宝丰2#、埃克森美孚惠州一期投产，山东新时 代线性和内蒙宝丰3#3月投产，近日新增的部分检修装置重启开车，下游还未完全恢复，以前期订单 生产为主，农膜价格继续稳定。不过，进入3月后下游需求有望继续恢复，下游地膜进入旺季，2月 制造业PMI上升，只是目前新单跟进缓慢，下游开工提升幅度不及预期，对高价原料购买谨慎，随着 3月下旬检修装置陆续重启开车，预计塑料震荡下行，塑料05基差仍偏高，建议塑料05基差逢高做空。 【期现行情】 期货方 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Trump's policy uncertainty and changes in risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts drive gold price changes. It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile mindset, buy on dips, and avoid chasing high prices. Pay attention to the $2,850/oz level for spot London gold and the 650 yuan/g level for the main Shanghai gold contract [10]. - Silver: Silver prices generally follow gold prices, but due to concerns about the US economic situation and weak domestic demand, silver prices are relatively weaker than gold prices. Continue to look for opportunities to go long on the gold-silver ratio [11]. - Copper: The market expects a US tariff cut, and the futures and spot markets are rising in tandem. The supply side is expected to face a round of concentrated maintenance in April, and the market is worried about supply. The downstream market is hesitant to buy at high prices, and the demand potential remains. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and the sentiment is easily affected by macro news. It is necessary to verify the downstream demand [13]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to increase production in April, and Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about the global economy. However, the US is considering repurchasing strategic oil reserves, and geopolitical factors may support oil prices. It is recommended to go long on crude oil with a light position in the near term [14][15]. - PP: The downstream demand for PP is expected to recover in March, but the new orders are limited, and the replenishment willingness is weak. It is recommended to close out the short positions in the PP05 contract and wait and see [16]. - PVC: The PVC supply is increasing, and the demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, but the price has fallen to a low level, and the room for further decline is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [20]. - Iron Ore: The supply pressure of iron ore is gradually increasing, and the demand still has room for growth in the short term, but the port inventory depletion pressure may gradually appear. It is recommended to take a volatile approach to iron ore in the short term [21]. - Rebar & Hot Roll: The demand for rebar and hot roll is expected to be weak in the peak season, but the supply-side crude steel reduction is intensifying, and the short positions are gradually closing out. It is expected that rebar will stabilize and rebound slightly in the short term [22]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is under pressure, and the demand has some support but lacks elasticity. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is recommended to close out the short positions on dips [24]. - Urea: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the market is consolidating at a high level. The upward momentum is insufficient, and it is waiting for new drivers [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 27.2%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The planned production in March is 2.386 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 278,000 tons or 13.2% [3]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate continued to rebound, but the overall level is still low. The national shipment volume increased by 25.99% month-on-month to 229,300 tons, but it is still at a low level [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of asphalt refineries continued to increase month-on-month but is still at the lowest level in recent years. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate at the beginning of the year [3]. - Price: The previous decline in crude oil prices has pressured asphalt prices, but the basis has continued to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on asphalt with a light position in the near term [3]. Plastic - Supply: The operating rate of plastic decreased to about 86%, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Some maintenance devices are expected to restart in late March [5]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate continued to rebound, but the new orders are slow to follow up, and the purchase of high-priced raw materials is cautious [5]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory has decreased to a relatively low level in the same period of the lunar calendar in recent years [5]. - Price: It is expected that plastic will fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract on rallies [5]. Futures Market Overview - Price Changes: As of the close on March 25, most domestic futures contracts rose. Glass and container shipping to Europe rose by more than 3%, and palm oil fell by more than 2% [7]. - Capital Flows: As of 15:03, the main domestic futures contracts saw capital inflows in the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and palm oil, and outflows in rebar, soybean oil, and iron ore [7][9]. Other Commodities - Silver: The London silver spot price was volatile and strong in the Asian session. The US manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line, and the domestic demand for silver was weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on the gold-silver ratio [11]. - Copper: The Shanghai copper futures price opened higher and moved higher. The market expects a US tariff cut, and the supply side may face a round of concentrated maintenance in April. The downstream market is hesitant to buy at high prices [13]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to increase production in April, and Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about the global economy. However, the US is considering repurchasing strategic oil reserves, and geopolitical factors may support oil prices. It is recommended to go long on crude oil with a light position in the near term [14][15]. - PP: The downstream demand for PP is expected to recover in March, but the new orders are limited, and the replenishment willingness is weak. It is recommended to close out the short positions in the PP05 contract and wait and see [16]. - PVC: The PVC supply is increasing, and the demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, but the price has fallen to a low level, and the room for further decline is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [20]. - Iron Ore: The supply pressure of iron ore is gradually increasing, and the demand still has room for growth in the short term, but the port inventory depletion pressure may gradually appear. It is recommended to take a volatile approach to iron ore in the short term [21]. - Rebar & Hot Roll: The demand for rebar and hot roll is expected to be weak in the peak season, but the supply-side crude steel reduction is intensifying, and the short positions are gradually closing out. It is expected that rebar will stabilize and rebound slightly in the short term [22]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is under pressure, and the demand has some support but lacks elasticity. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is recommended to close out the short positions on dips [24]. - Urea: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the market is consolidating at a high level. The upward momentum is insufficient, and it is waiting for new drivers [25].

【冠通研究】 基本面相对平稳，宏观扰动铜价 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 25 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开高走震荡上行。市场预期美国关税下调，叠加美股原油反弹，期现共振 上涨。美国 3 月制造业 PMI 初值意外重回萎缩，服务业 PMI 优于预期但前景信心低迷、关 税导致材料成本飙涨。美国经济数据相对疲弱，美联储 3 月会议维持利率 4.25%-4.5%不 变，符合预期，但年内或有两次降息。美伦铜价差突破 1200 美元/吨，美国关税政策预期 引发铜库存向美国转移，加剧区域性供需失衡。供给方面，截止 3 月 21 日，现货粗炼费 （TC）-23.01 美元/干吨，现货精炼费（RC）-2.32 美分/磅，冶炼厂加工费进一步走弱， 预计 4 月将面临一轮集中检修，供应端受扰动。同时受美国关税政策影响，废铜来源趋 紧，市场供应端担忧有所加深，盘面下方存在支撑。沪铜社会库存去化趋缓，对铜价上方 形成压制。需求方面，铜价高位维持下，下游市场畏高情绪弥漫，精铜库存去化受阻，目 前处于金三银四的传统旺季之下，市场需求潜力尚在，不乏追涨动力。目前金三银四旺季 需求预期下，市场对供应端存隐忧，基本面相对稳定，盘面情绪易受 ...

报告行业投资评级 - 观望 [1] 报告的核心观点 - 春节假期后第七周PP下游整体开工环比回升但仍处年内较低水平 美国加征关税不利PP下游制品出口 新增检修装置使PP企业开工率下降 标品拉丝生产比例下降 下游逐步复工 2月底石化去库加快近期一般 目前库存降至近年农历同期偏低水平 上游原油价格企稳反弹给予成本支撑 3月后下游需求有望继续恢复 建议PP05合约前期空单止盈平仓后观望 [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 期现行情 期货方面 - PP2505合约低开后减仓震荡运行 最低价7310元/吨 最高价7342元/吨 收盘于7314元/吨 涨幅0.18% 持仓量减少22654手至386283手 [2] 现货方面 - PP现货品种价格多数稳定 拉丝报7160 - 7540元/吨 共聚报7275 - 7740元/吨 [5] 基本面跟踪 供应端 - 新增海南乙烯等检修装置 PP企业开工率下跌至82%左右 处于中性水平 [7] 需求方面 - 截至3月21日当周 PP下游开工率环比回升0.46个百分点至50.44% 处于年内较低水平 其中塑编开工率环比回升0.9个百分点至47.4% 塑编订单继续小幅回升 与前两年同期基本相当 [7] 库存方面 - 周二石化早库环比减少4.5万吨至75万吨 较去年同期低9.5万吨 2月底石化去库加快 近期去库一般 目前石化库存降至近年农历同期偏低水平 [7] 原料端 - 布伦特原油06合约上涨至72美元/桶上方 中国CFR丙烯价格环比持平于830美元/吨 [8]

【冠通研究】 PVC：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年3月25日 【策略分析】 观望 上游电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.60个百分点至80.74%，升至近年同期中 性偏高水平。春节假期结束不久，PVC下游开工继续回升，但仍偏低，补货积极性远期订单表现不佳。 印度反倾销政策不利于国内PVC的出口，印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年6月24日执行，但印 度斋月下，出口高价成交受阻。中国台湾台塑4月份报价下调20-40美元/吨左右，其中中国大陆到岸 价下调25美元/吨。上周社会库存继续下降，只是目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。30大中城市商品 房周度成交面积继续环比上升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销 售。春节假期后下游积极性一般，05合约基差有所回升，但仍偏低，仓单持续流出，新增少量检修 装置，春检未大规模启动，需求未实质性改善之前PVC压力较大，宏观未出台超预期刺激措施，但 PVC期价已经跌至近年最低点附近，社会库存开始缓慢下降，PVC期价继续大幅下跌空间不大，预计 PVC低位震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PVC2505合约减仓震荡下行，最低价5112元/ ...

【冠通研究】 减产预期强化，成材延续反弹 【策略分析】 减产预期强化，成材延续反弹 今日黑色系高开后震荡为主，成材高开后先跌后涨，粗钢减产消息扰动建材减产 预期较好，卷螺差明显收窄。成材基本面表现中性偏弱，螺纹需求修复偏缓，去 库幅度不及热卷；热卷延续复产，但需求维持韧性。我们认为，成材旺季需求预 期偏弱，但同时供给侧粗钢压减愈演愈烈，减产预期强化，加之移仓换月阶段， 空头逐渐止盈，预计短期螺纹企稳小幅反弹，反弹幅度暂时不宜过度乐观，继续 验证需求强度。螺纹 2505 关注 3150-3350 元/吨，热卷 2505 关注 3300-3500 元 /吨。 螺纹 2505 小时 K 【期现行情】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2505 开盘 3204 元/吨，收盘于 3220 元/吨，+41 元/吨， 涨跌幅+1.29%；热卷主力开盘 3396 元/吨，收盘于 3386 元/吨，+6 元/吨，涨跌 幅+0.18%。持仓方面，今日螺纹钢 RB2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 988466 手， - ...

盘面高位整理，等待新的驱动 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 25 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约高开高走震荡上行。上游工厂报价稳定为主，前期待发订单相 对充足，暂无降价压力。供给端，高供应成为常态，20 万吨左右日产对盘面价格 压制力强，鄂绒本周检修，下月预计恢复。部分装置有临时检修计划，窄幅波动 为主。需求端，下游拿货情绪略有降温，复合肥厂开工率高，托举盘面价格，夏 季肥收单顺畅，含氮复合肥乃当季主推。农需 4 月水稻备肥在即，其他供需也稳 定运行。目前处于去库周期中，库存继续小幅去化。综合来看，出口消息影响下 盘面上涨基本接近尾声，市场情绪随之回落，高价抬升后，下游接受能力欠缺。 供需双旺，盘面高位盘整，市场上涨动力不足，等待新的驱动。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1847 元/吨高开低走，震荡收涨，最终尾盘 拉涨收于 1864 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.70%，日成交有所增量，持仓量 239010 手（+717 手）。前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+3867，空头-223 手。 其中，东证期货净多单增加 1671 手、国投期货净多单增加 752 手；方正中期净 空单增加 1 ...

【冠通研究】 短期低位震荡，空单逐渐止盈 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 25 日 【策略分析】 短期低位震荡，空单逐渐止盈 今日焦煤主力高开后偏弱震荡，收盘价格重心下移。供给端承压明显，下游焦炭 受环保限产影响减弱产量有所恢复，但焦炭库存中高，十一轮提降后亏损压力较 大，焦煤需求端有支撑无弹性。我们认为铁水尚未见顶，短期产业链负反馈预期 不强，但粗钢减产愈演愈烈，对炉料端形成抑制，加之移仓换月阶段，预计短期 焦煤低位震荡为主，前期空单逢低逐渐止盈。2505 合约下方支撑关注 980-1000 元/吨附近。 【期货行情】 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约高开后偏弱运行，最终收盘于 1027 元/吨，+8.5 元/吨，涨跌幅+0.83%。成交量 18.99 万手，持仓 36.89 万手，-1989 手，今日焦 煤 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 184978 手，-1615 手，前二十名空头持仓为 240085 手，-3138 手，多减空减。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 数据来源:钢联，冠通期货 【基本面跟踪】 供应方面：3 月 14 日-3 ...

【冠通研究】 短期震荡为主 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 25 日 【策略分析】 短期震荡为主 今日黑色系高开后震荡为主，铁矿石收盘价格重心小幅上移。铁矿石供应端压力 逐渐回升；需求短期仍有增量空间，但港口库存去化压力或逐渐显现。我们认为， 短期铁水尚未见顶，需求端仍对矿价形成一定支撑，但同时粗钢减产预期强化， 成材需求预期偏弱，关注预期交易和现实交易切换节奏，盘面小幅贴水现货，短 期铁矿震荡思路对待。2505 合约运行区间参考 750-810 元/吨。 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：铁矿石主力 I2505 合约高开后偏弱震荡，最终收盘于 776 元/吨，+5 元/吨，涨跌幅+0.65%。成交量 30.08 万手，持仓 42.29 万手，-19461 手，今日 铁矿石 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 271260 手，-13690 手，前二十名空头持 仓为 283693 手，-14646 手，多减空减。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期货行情】 铁矿石 2505 小时 K 【基本面跟踪】 产业方面：外矿方面，3 月 17 日-3 月 2 ...

制作日期: 2025/03/25 北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 资讯早间报 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一,COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.13%报 3017.6 美元/盎 司, COMEX 白银期货涨 0.12%报 33.525 美元/盎司。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘,能源化工品普遍上涨,玻璃涨 2.14%,沥青涨 1.57%,20 号胶涨 1.22%,苯乙烯涨 1.1%,原油涨 1.03%。黑色系全线上涨,焦 炭涨 1.98%,铁矿石涨 1.36%。农产品多数上涨。基本金属涨跌不一,沪铜涨 0.65%，氧化铝涨 0.36%，沪锌涨 0.21%，沪镍跌 0.67%，沪锡跌 0.68%。沪金跌 0.09%，沪银涨 0.02%。 3. 芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货主力合约收盘涨跌不一,大豆期货跌 0.27%报 1007 美分/蒲式耳;玉米期货涨 0.05%报 464.5 美分/蒲式耳, 小麦期货 跌 1.93%报 547.5 美分/蒲式耳。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨 ...