2025-06-23 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料 我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考 并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何 直接或间接损失概不负责 本报告仅向特定客户传送 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版 须注明出处为冠通期货股份有 王 静，执业资格证号F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 压榨厂：豆油：库存：中国（周） 棕榈油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 2025-06-23 菜油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 豆油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2022 2023 2024 2025 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2022 2023 2024 20 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/09/02 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 截至夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪银涨超 2%，LU 燃油、棕榈 油、液化气、沥青、燃料油、原油、不锈钢涨超 1%；跌幅方面，烧碱跌超 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.84%报 3545.8 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 2.46%报 41.725 美元/盎司。随着市场对 ...

热点资讯 1.印度石油部长哈迪普表示，印度没有从俄罗斯进口石油中"牟取暴利"，印度的石油采购稳定了市场，同时阻止了油价升至 每桶200美元。 2.据央视新闻，截至2025年8月31日，三峡电站累计发电量突破1.8万亿千瓦时，相当于节约标准煤约5.4亿吨，减排二氧化碳 约14.8亿吨。此外，三峡电站还与乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡、向家坝、葛洲坝共六座电站共同构成世界最大清洁能源走廊。今 年上半年，这条能源走廊累计发电量达1266.6亿千瓦时，同比增长60亿千瓦时，创历史同期新高，相当于节约标准煤3820万 吨，减排二氧化碳约1亿吨。 3.隆众资讯最新数据显示，截至9月1日当周，山东独立炼厂原油到港量298.2万吨，环比下跌3.4万吨，跌幅为1.13%。本期到 港原油以中质原油为主，其中俄罗斯原油到港40万吨，且有1船新的稀释沥青到港。 早盘速递 2025/9/2 板块持仓 (200,000) (100,000) 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The overseas market is trading on the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the issue of its independence, with the falling US dollar index supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline in September, and imported copper may increase. Although demand is affected by tariffs and pre - emptive exports, there is an improving trend [10]. - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited. After the market rebound, it stimulates downstream purchasing sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, there is demand support below. However, the market is easily affected by industry news, and attention should be paid to mine disturbances [12]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short on rallies. Although the price once rebounded due to positive EIA data and market bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut, the consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the supply - demand situation is weakening [13][15]. - Asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply - demand situation is weak, with the开工 rate falling, demand restricted by factors such as funds and weather, and limited cost support from crude oil [16]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate is gradually rising, and the peak season may bring some boost. However, the supply is increasing, and the market is affected by global trade wars and anti - involution policies [17][18]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. Although the agricultural film industry is improving, the overall demand is still weak, and it is affected by anti - involution policies [19]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is large [20][21]. - The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The price is under pressure due to imported coal, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of coke price adjustments [22]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate. In the autumn fertilizer peak season, there is some demand support, but the supply is still abundant, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton fluctuation range [24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 1, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, Shanghai silver rose more than 4%, caustic soda and Shanghai gold rose more than 2%, and container shipping to Europe, Shanghai nickel, and stainless steel (SS) rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, glass, coke, and coking coal fell more than 3%, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and soda ash fell more than 2%, and rebar and cotton fell nearly 2%. Stock index futures also showed different degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:19 on September 1, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai copper 2510 inflowed 1.989 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2510 inflowed 1.741 billion yuan, and Shanghai gold 2510 inflowed 1.488 billion yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 outflowed 4.304 billion yuan, CSI 500 2509 outflowed 3.721 billion yuan, and CSI 1000 2509 outflowed 2.89 billion yuan [8]. Individual Variety Analysis Copper - The market opened high and moved low, with a strong - side oscillation. The US PCE price index rose in July. China's copper imports increased in July, and the port inventory of concentrates rebounded. The smelter processing fee decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The import of copper may increase, which will affect the domestic market. The demand is affected by factors such as domestic investment in power grid facilities and the weakening of external demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased. The domestic production is expected to decline from August to September. The demand is supported by the peak - season stocking of power battery factories, but the market is easily affected by industry news [12]. Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decrease, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [13][15]. Asphalt - The supply - side operating rate decreased last week, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased, but it is still at a low level. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [16]. PP - The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s production increase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, but the peak season may bring some boost [17][18]. Plastic - The operating rate decreased on September 1, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. The agricultural film industry is improving, but the overall demand is still weak [19]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate is still low. India extended the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping tax on Chinese PVC increased, weakening the export expectation. The social inventory is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. The new production capacity is increasing, and the price is under pressure [20][21]. Coking Coal - The price opened low and moved low, with a downward oscillation. The price of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The import of coking coal increased in July, and the domestic production decreased due to environmental protection and production cuts. The independent coking enterprises' profit is positive, and the coking coal inventory is decreasing. The coke price increase is not yet finalized, and the steel mill's profit is weakening [22]. Urea - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased in August due to maintenance and environmental protection restrictions, but the new production capacity will be put into operation. The demand of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to the September parade, and the industrial demand is affected by the real - estate market. The inventory increased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings provided in the content. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the global oil surplus is expected to intensify in Q4. The end of the consumption peak season, poor US non - farm employment, and global trade wars have led to weakening crude oil demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Asphalt - In September, asphalt supply and demand are expected to increase. The cost - side support is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil or conduct range trading [3][62]. PVC - PVC supply is high, exports are expected to weaken, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although September is the traditional peak season, the improvement is limited. It is expected to decline and recommended to short on rallies [3][111]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin production remains high, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally in September. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate. Range trading is recommended [3][154]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Core View - Crude oil supply and demand are weakening. OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and demand is affected by factors such as the end of the consumption peak season and poor non - farm employment. It is recommended to short on rallies [8][9]. Investment Strategy - Short on rallies [10]. Market Review - In August, domestic crude oil prices fell. The price rose in late July due to geopolitical factors and then declined due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the US economy [14]. Position and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 19, WTI non - commercial net long positions increased slightly compared to the previous week but decreased significantly compared to the end of July. As of August 27, Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts increased compared to the end of July but remained at a low level [18]. Production - OPEC's June production decreased, while July production increased. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September. US crude oil production increased in the week of August 22 [22]. Drilling Rigs - In August, the number of US oil drilling rigs continued to decrease and stabilized recently. As of August 22, it was 411, 4 less than in the week of July 25 [26]. Imports and Exports - As of August 22, US crude oil imports decreased, and exports also decreased. Imports were at a neutral - low level, and exports were at a neutral - high level [30]. China's Processing and Imports - China's July crude oil processing volume increased month - on - month and was at a high level in the same period over the years. Imports increased month - on - month and were at a neutral - high level in the same period [34]. US Economic Data - In August, US inflation data showed different trends. CPI remained stable, PPI increased significantly, and PCE inflation was in line with expectations [38]. Crack Spreads - In August, US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased [42]. Demand - EIA and other institutions have different forecasts for global oil supply and demand. US gasoline and diesel demand increased week - on - week [46]. Inventory - As of August 22, US crude oil, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories changed. Crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased [50][54]. Geopolitical Risks - There are ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, which may affect the oil market [56]. Asphalt Core View - Supply and demand are expected to increase in September. The cost - side support is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil or conduct range trading [62]. Market Review - In August, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio increased, and the asphalt basis fell to a neutral level [70][73]. Production and Consumption - July asphalt production and apparent consumption increased. As of August 29, the national asphalt shipment volume increased [81][85]. Supply and Profit - In August, the asphalt operating rate decreased and was at a low level in the same period. The spot - end profit loss in Shandong Province narrowed slightly [89]. Downstream - From January to July, road transportation investment and national highway construction investment decreased year - on - year. As of August 29, the downstream operating rate was mostly stable [101][106]. PVC Core View - Supply is high, exports are expected to weaken, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although September is the traditional peak season, the improvement is limited. It is expected to decline and recommended to short on rallies [111]. Market Review - There is no clear market review information provided. Upstream - In August, calcium carbide prices fell and then were expected to rise slightly. The calcium carbide operating rate increased slightly but remained low, and losses increased. The semi - coke operating rate rose, and prices increased, but losses did not narrow [120]. Production - July PVC production increased, and the maintenance loss also increased [124]. Operating Rate - As of August 29, the PVC operating rate decreased to 76.02% but remained at a relatively high level in the same period [128]. Imports and Exports - In July, PVC imports increased, and exports decreased compared to the previous month but remained at a high level in the same period. India's anti - dumping tax is expected to weaken China's PVC exports in the second half of the year [135]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas decreased year - on - year. As of August 31, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period [139]. Downstream Operating Rate - As of August 29, the PVC downstream average operating rate decreased to 42.60% and was at a low level in the same period [144]. Inventory - As of August 28, PVC social inventory increased and remained high [148]. Polyolefins Core View - In September, production remains high, and downstream demand is expected to improve marginally. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to fluctuate. Range trading is recommended [154]. Market Review - Futures prices fell, and spot prices were stable. The basis of plastics and PP rebounded slightly but remained at a low level [165][169]. Production - In July, PE and PP production increased, with high - level maintenance for PP [174][181]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of PE and PP increased recently and were at a neutral level [178][185]. Imports and Exports - In July, PE imports decreased, and exports increased. PP imports decreased, and exports increased. The net imports of both are expected to decline [192][198]. Downstream - From January to July, the cumulative production of plastic products increased, and the export amount decreased slightly. As of August 29, the downstream operating rates of PE and PP increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period [202][206]. Inventory - As of August 29, petrochemical inventory decreased and was at a neutral level in the same period [210]. Profit - In August, coal - based and oil - based PE profits changed. Coal - based PP was profitable, while other processes were mostly in losses [215].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In August, the risk appetite in the capital market increased, and the prices of risk assets generally rose. Overseas, the impact of tariffs in the US began to show, the disappointing non - farm payrolls data shocked the market, and the Fed's policy choices were difficult. The market generally expected a rate cut in September. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market cooled, but A - shares were strong, attracting funds, and the commodity futures market style reversed [5][75]. - The A - share market's strength is due to the change in domestic expectations. After the pessimistic expectations reversed last year, a large amount of funds flowed into the stock market. The emergence of DeepSeek and China's counter - measures in tariff negotiations strengthened market confidence [7][28]. - Weak dollar has become a relatively certain macro - factor. The rate - cut trading based on the weak dollar dominates the pricing of global risk assets [8][68]. Summary by Directory 1. Expected vs. Reality - The most notable macro - issue in August was the unexpectedly strong A - shares, which stemmed from the change in domestic expectations. Asset prices reflect investors' expectations more than the reality. The difference between macro - data and micro - feelings comes from the convergence of expectations and reality [13]. 2. US Stock "Bull" vs. Chinese Real Estate "Bear" - As core assets, the price trends of US stocks and Chinese real estate have significant wealth effects. In the past two years, the bullish US stocks and bearish Chinese real estate had opposite impacts on the two countries [16]. - In the US, the strong consumption of residents is related to the wealth effect of US stocks. In China, the real - estate slump led to residents' de - leveraging and consumption downgrade, while the stock - market strength accelerated the transfer of residents' deposits [17]. 3. Reasons for Expectation Reversal - In September 2024, the Fed started rate - cuts, and China's policy package turned the situation around. In January 2025, the emergence of DeepSeek led to the re - evaluation of Sino - US assets. In April 2025, China's counter - measures in tariff negotiations strengthened domestic confidence. In July 2025, the "anti - involution" trading dominated the domestic market [20]. 4. Underlying Logic of A - share Confidence Bull - Due to the asset shortage, along with the disillusionment of Western myths, technological breakthroughs, and cultural confidence, market confidence was boosted, expectations improved, and undervalued Chinese assets were re - evaluated. Investors adjusted their asset allocation, increasing risk assets [25]. - The strong performance of the stock market changed investors' psychology from scar effect to profit - making effect, leading to the transfer of residents' deposits from physical to financial assets [25]. 5. US 7 - month Non - farm Payrolls Data and Market Reaction - The US non - farm payrolls data in July was disappointing, with an increase of 73,000 in non - farm employment, far lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the U6 unemployment rate was 7.9%. The market reaction included a sharp decline in the dollar index, a jump in non - US currencies, a rise in gold prices, and a slight rebound in US stock index futures. Traders' expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September by the Fed increased from 45% to 75% [35][37]. 6. Trump's Intervention in the Fed - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook, and there were a series of personnel changes in the Fed. Trump's actions challenged the Fed's independence and may force the Fed to cut rates to respond to political pressure [38][39]. 7. Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Powell's speech signaled a possible rate cut. He pointed out that the US labor market was in a "fragile balance" with rising employment risks, economic growth slowed, inflation pressure existed, and the Fed's policy might be adjusted [41][43]. - The Fed revised its monetary policy framework, including abandoning the focus on the effective lower bound, the average inflation target system, and the "employment shortfall" wording, and emphasizing inflation expectation anchoring [59]. 8. Global Asset Performance - In August, global major stock markets mostly rose, the BDI increased slightly, the dollar fell, non - US currencies strengthened, and commodities rose more than they fell. Domestically, the A - share market was strong, and the commodity futures market style reversed [75]. 9. Domestic Futures Market Performance - In August, the domestic futures market showed a pattern of strong stocks, weak bonds, and a cooling commodity market. The four major stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai 50 rising the least. Commodities showed mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising slightly [6][78]. 10. Commodity Index Trends - The "anti - involution" market cooled, and commodities fell from high levels. Historically, the probability of the South China Commodity Index rising in September is slightly higher, but the potential probability of a decline is also relatively high [80][83]. 11. Stock Index Performance - In August, the stock market continued to rise strongly, with all major stock indexes closing higher. The price - to - earnings ratio of the four major stock indexes increased, and the risk premium decreased, indicating an optimistic market sentiment [87]. 12. Global Economic Performance - The global economic sentiment recovered but was split. The JPMorgan Global Composite PMI rebounded, but the service and manufacturing sectors diverged. The ZEW economic sentiment index of major economies declined, while the consumer confidence index was generally strong [92]. - Inflation in major economies rebounded, with the US having a larger inflation amplitude. The inflation expectations in the bond market increased [103]. - The Fed and the Bank of Japan continued to shrink their balance sheets, the European Central Bank shifted from expanding to shrinking its balance sheet, and the People's Bank of China expanded its balance sheet again [105]. 13. US Economic Performance - The US economic sentiment cooled, inflation rebounded, the manufacturing PMI remained in the contraction range, employment was challenged, and consumer confidence was still low. The impact of tariffs on inflation began to show [111]. 14. Chinese Economic Performance - In July, China's manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, but the overall business activities of enterprises remained in the expansion range [116]. - M2 and M1 growth rates increased, and the growth rate difference between M2 and social financing and M2 and M1 both narrowed. The growth rate of RMB loans hit a new low, and the deposit - loan gap of financial institutions widened [119]. - The recovery of M1 growth is expected to drive the start of the credit cycle, with loose financial conditions, rising inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and a rebound in DR007 [124]. - China's export growth remained resilient, but the pressure on external demand still existed. The export price profit margin turned negative, and the market's expectations for the economic prospects were contradictory [128][130]. - Real estate investment was dragged down, with the decline rates of multiple indicators accelerating, and the high - frequency housing sales data remained sluggish [132]. - Consumption growth declined significantly, travel data was split, and residents' income growth was weak [138]. - CPI remained flat, PPI continued to decline, and the macro - profit margin (CPI - PPI) decreased. The continuation of "anti - involution" may promote domestic re - inflation [142]. 15. Mid - level Industry Performance - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable blast - furnace operating rates; oil prices declined with inventory reduction; copper prices fluctuated at high levels with inventory accumulation; and coking coal prices rebounded from the bottom [146][147]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fluctuated narrowly at a historical high; domestic freight rates continued to decline, and the BDI fluctuated after an initial decline; and automobile production growth was stable [150].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [3]. - The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [3]. 3. Summary by Category Manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from July. Large - scale enterprises had a PMI of 50.8% (up 0.5 percentage points), medium - scale enterprises had a PMI of 48.9% (down 0.6 percentage points), and small - scale enterprises had a PMI of 46.6% (up 0.2 percentage points) [2]. - **Sub - indices**: Among the 5 sub - indices, the production index (50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points) and the supplier delivery time index (50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points) were above the critical point, while the new order index (49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points), the raw material inventory index (48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points), and the employment index (47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points) were below the critical point [2]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The non - manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from July. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1% (down 1.5 percentage points), and the service industry business activity index was 50.5% (up 0.5 percentage points) [3]. - **Industry Performance**: Industries such as railway transportation, water transportation, air transportation, and capital market services were in the high - prosperity range above 60.0%, while the retail and real estate industries were below the critical point [3]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index in August was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to rise. The market focuses on the Fed's interest rate cut and independence issues. Nvidia strengthens the AI demand expectation, providing a positive outlook for copper demand. However, the current copper price is approaching the resistance level, and a correction should be watched out for [1] - Near the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", there is support below the market. The SHFE copper inventory has declined in the past two days and is oscillating in the low - level range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, with intraday oscillation under pressure. The EU promotes the implementation of the EU - US agreement, and the legislative proposal cancels some tariffs on the US, reducing automobile tariffs to 15%. Fed's Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September and further cuts in the next three to six months. The Fed incident continues to ferment [1] - On the supply side, Codelco raises the estimate of accident losses and lowers the 2025 production target. In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased to the lowest level in the past five years. The smelter TC/RC fees continue to stabilize and rise. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price is at a high level in the same period of history, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the refined copper production will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid overstock [1] - On the demand side, the spot premium has strengthened, downstream buyers are cautious, and the market trading is light [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, with intraday oscillation on the strong side, and closed at 79,410 yuan/ton at the end of the session [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 210 yuan/ton, and in South China is 60 yuan/ton. On August 29, 2025, the LME official price is 9,789 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 85.5 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of August 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 41.32 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.14 cents/pound [7] - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 21,400 tons, an increase of 180 tons from the previous period. As of August 25, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 83,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 158,000 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 275,200 short tons, an increase of 1,459 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Rebound", with a strategy of "Sell on rallies" [1] Core View of the Report - Although the crude oil price rebounded due to positive US EIA data and increased market bets on a Fed rate cut in September, as well as the difficult progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and Russia is increasing its crude oil exports. The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weakening, so it is recommended to sell on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decline, and overall oil product inventories also continue to decrease. OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, canceling the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut implemented in November 2023 one year in advance. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September. Concerns about the US economy have emerged due to lower - than - expected new employment in July. After the US - Russia talks, there are no plans to impose further sanctions on Russia or additional tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil. EIA and IEA have both raised the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The US's additional 25% tariff on Indian goods may cause changes in the global crude oil trade flow. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 0.97% to 481.7 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 478.4 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 483.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,618 to 35,842 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to exceed 2 million barrels per day, 0.8 million barrels per day higher than last month's forecast. EIA has lowered the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 from $68.89/barrel to $67.22/barrel and for 2026 from $58.48/barrel to $51.43/barrel. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 370,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 by 620,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, while lowering the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day. US EIA data on August 27 showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending August 22 decreased by 2.392 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was adjusted down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day month - on - month, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day in the week of August 22. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.15 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand both increasing month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 0.50% month - on - month [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the overnight copper price strengthened, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut and independence issues. The upward potential of the current price is approaching the resistance level, and caution is needed for a possible correction [9]. - For lithium carbonate, after a significant correction in the market, it has stimulated downstream purchasing sentiment. With supply - side disturbances ongoing and approaching the peak season, the downside is limited, but the market is volatile and requires cautious operation [11]. - For crude oil, although the price rebounded due to certain factors, the supply - demand situation is weakening as the consumption peak season ends and OPEC + accelerates production increases. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, under the condition of weak supply and demand, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate recently with limited cost - side support [15]. - For PP, with the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC + accelerating production increases, and considering supply and demand factors, the PP market is expected to fluctuate recently [17]. - For plastic, with the end of the consumption peak season, oil price pressure, and considering supply and demand, the plastic market is expected to fluctuate recently [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as reduced export expectations, high inventory, and weak demand, the PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward [20]. - For coking coal, although the market has rumors of a ninth round of price increases, the downstream demand is weakening, but the downward space is limited [21]. - For urea, after a short - term weak adjustment, there may be a rebound opportunity in September with the support of autumn fertilizers and approaching the off - season storage and Indian tender [23]. Summary by Variety Copper - The EU is promoting the EU - US agreement, and the Fed's Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The supply side may face production cuts in the later third quarter, and the demand side has weak market transactions. The upward potential of the price is approaching the resistance level [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July, imports decreased significantly, and domestic production in August - September is expected to decline. The demand side has support, but the market is volatile [11]. Crude Oil - The US oil and gasoline inventories are decreasing, and OPEC + will increase production in September. The market is concerned about the US economy, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [12][14]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate is declining, and the planned production in September will increase. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the cost - side support is limited, resulting in a volatile market [15]. PP - The downstream and enterprise production rates have changed, and the inventory is at a neutral level. With the end of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to fluctuate [16][17]. Plastic - The production rate is stable, and the downstream production rate has increased slightly. The cost - side pressure is high, and the market is expected to fluctuate [18]. PVC - The production rate is decreasing, the export expectations are weakening, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate downward [19][20]. Coking Coal - The spot price has changed, the import volume has increased, and the downstream demand is weakening. Although there are rumors of price increases, the downward space is limited [21]. Urea - The spot price has increased slightly, the supply has decreased due to maintenance, the demand has been affected by environmental protection, and there may be a rebound opportunity in September [23].