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PVC日报:震荡运行-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 12:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report predicts that PVC will fluctuate. Although the anti - "involution" sentiment in the commodity market is rising, the current decline in PVC production is limited, and it is the traditional demand off - season in December. After the spot price rises, the market transaction is weak. With high inventory and limited demand, PVC is expected to move in a volatile manner [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23% and is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the downstream product orders are poor. In terms of exports, PVC is sold at a lower price, and last week's export orders decreased slightly. The prices in the Indian market are low, and the demand is limited. The CFR in January from Formosa Plastics in Taiwan remained flat in China, but decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton in India and Southeast Asia respectively. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to November 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased, but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua has recently started trial production. The anti - "involution" sentiment in the commodity market is rising, and the comprehensive profit margin of chlor - alkali has decreased, but the current decline in production is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,748 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,810 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.15%. The position volume decreased by 22,446 lots to 946,761 lots [2] Basis - On December 30, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,810 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 310 yuan/ton, weakening by 25 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Affected by plants such as Salt Lake Magnesium Industry and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%, and the operating rate continued to decline, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year for Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year for Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year for Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year for Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of the year. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December [4] Demand - The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the new construction area of residential housing decreased by 19.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%; the completion area of residential housing decreased by 20.1%. As of the week of December 21, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost the sales of commercial housing [5] Inventory - As of the week of December 25, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.43% week - on - week to 1.0611 million tons, an increase of 31.92% compared with the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high [6]
尿素日报:能化走强,尿素冲高回落-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 12:29
【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报:能化走强,尿素冲高回落 发布日期:2025 年 12 月 30 日 【期现行情】 期货方面:尿素主力 2605 合约 1735 元/吨开盘, 平开高走,日内收涨。最 终收于 1743 元/吨,收成一根阳线,涨跌幅 0.46%,持仓量 204038 手(+9235 手)。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看,多头+5151 手,空头+9057 手。其 中,中信期货净多单+1222 手、广发期货净多单+1018 手;银河净空单+1797 手, 一德期货净空单+2549 手。 2025 年 12 月 30 日,尿素仓单数量 12381 张,环比上个交易日+1631 张,辽 宁化肥+21 张,铁岭东北丰(辉隆集团 UR)+845 张,东平津晖(辉隆集团 UR) +765 张。 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 尿素注册仓单(张) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面:现货市场延续下跌,但 ...
沪铜日报:高位回调-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 12:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of opening low and rising, with a decline at the close. The 2026 copper concentrate processing fee long - term agreement price of zero has boosted market sentiment, and copper prices have risen for several days. However, due to factors such as the squeeze on copper product profits, a decline in capacity utilization, and the resistance of downstream buyers to high prices, the upward momentum has been affected. Nevertheless, the strong upward trend of copper remains unchanged [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. President Trump's remarks about the Fed and the expected announcement of the Fed chairperson in January have an uncertain impact on the market. The 2026 copper concentrate processing fee long - term agreement price of zero has boosted copper prices. SMM expects the electrolytic copper output in December to increase by 6.57 million tons month - on - month, a growth of 5.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the spot copper concentrate processing fee in the first quarter of 2026. Copper foil remains highly prosperous due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles. The continuous increase in SHFE cathode copper inventory indicates a decline in downstream purchasing power [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and rose, with a decline at the close. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 255 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 180 yuan/ton. On December 29, 2025, the LME official price was 12,269.5 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 36.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on December 29, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 44.90 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.67 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 71,700 tons, an increase of 5,860 tons from the previous period. As of December 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 149,500 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 488,300 short tons, an increase of 5,380 short tons from the previous period [10].
PP日报:震荡运行-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 12:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile range. The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with limited upside potential. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new PP capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [1][4] - Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1] - Due to oversupply in the crude oil market, the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Russia reported 91 Ukrainian drones attacking Putin's residence. The rebound of crude oil prices is limited [1] - There is new capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and moved in a volatile range. The lowest price was 6,271 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,346 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,321 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.48%. The open interest increased by 23,919 lots to 541,379 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. Drawstring was reported at 5,920 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 600,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6]
螺纹日报:震荡整理-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 12:06
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current market is in a volatile situation supported by low supply and in the off - season of demand. The supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rise in the past two weeks, and steel mills have the expectation of resuming production in January, which restricts the upside space of prices to some extent. The demand shows off - season characteristics with a decline. Observe whether the winter storage market can start in January. The inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - expectation is loose, but the real - estate regulation restricts the long - term demand space. The recent market has shown continuous volatility after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation, and there is currently a lack of unilateral driving factors [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The position of the main rebar contract increased by 30,014 lots on Tuesday. The trading volume was slightly lower than the previous trading day, with 635,547 lots. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3128 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3148 yuan/ton, and closed at 3134 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.10% [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 166 yuan/ton to the spot, which provided some support for the futures price [1]. Fundamental Data - Supply - side: As of the week ending December 25, rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. It was 319,100 tons lower than the same period in the Gregorian calendar. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 0.39% lower than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, unchanged from last week. The daily average hot metal output increased by 300 tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons, 12,900 tons lower than last year. The production continued to rise slightly this week, and there was an expectation of steel mill复产, which would weaken the price support to some extent [2]. - Demand - side: The terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials in the country maintaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past five years. As of the week ending December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower than the same period in the Gregorian calendar. There were regional differences in demand, with construction in the north stagnant due to cold weather and stock projects in the south rushing to work. The apparent demand declined due to the off - season, and attention should be paid to whether the winter storage could boost demand in January [2]. - Inventory: As of the week ending December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, de - stocking for 8 consecutive weeks but still 345,100 tons higher than the same period. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons week - on - week with a slowdown in de - stocking, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, up slightly by 5200 tons. The de - stocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience, and the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3]. - Macro - aspect: The Central Economic Conference proposed to use policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - expectation was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan pointed out a transformation path for the steel industry, with limited incremental demand but support from the loose cycle [3]. - Cost - side: The futures of iron ore and coking coal stabilized, strengthening the cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory de - stocking, loose policy expectations, large discount on the futures market, and strong iron ore [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpectedly high resumption of steel mill production in January, seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious willingness of traders for winter storage, weak real - estate data, and weakening of coking coal [5].
焦炭日报:短期震荡偏强-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 12:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating and slightly bullish" for the coke industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation of coke is weak, with continuous increase in supply and low - level operation of iron - water production on the demand side. However, short - term anti - involution news boosts market sentiment, and there are still policy expectations at the macro level. Therefore, it is expected that coke will oscillate and be slightly bullish in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of December 26, independent coking enterprises' coke inventory increased slightly by 1.25% to 92.24 tons, steel mills' coke inventory increased by 1.34% to 642.2 tons, port coke inventory increased by nearly 2%, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 14.36 tons to 978.64 tons, reaching a 12 - week high with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1] - The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 18 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke is - 64 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke is 35 yuan/ton [1] - The terminal demand for steel is weak, mainly for rigid - demand restocking; the profitability of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 0.03 tons to 226.58 tons compared with last week, ending the previous five - consecutive - decline, and decreased by 1.29 tons compared with last year [1] - Steel and coking enterprises are cautious in purchasing upstream coking coal. Independent coking enterprises' inventory increased slightly by 3.43 tons to 1039.72 tons, steel mills' coking coal inventory increased slightly by 1.73 tons to 806.72 tons. While coal mines' coking coal inventory increased by 10.1 tons, port imported coking coal inventory increased by 23.09 tons. Therefore, the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 1.47% to 2647.24 tons, reaching a nearly 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 14% [2] - The market supervision总局 has deployed key tasks for 2026, emphasizing continuous deepening of fair - competition governance, strengthening the crackdown on administrative monopolies, and anti - monopoly and anti - unfair - competition law enforcement. Some steel mills in Hebei have lowered the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on January 1, 2026, and the fourth round of coke price reduction has begun [2] Futures and Spot Market - On the futures side, the 05 coke contract opened at 1680.5, reached a high of 1735, and closed at 1715, with an increase of 198 lots. It is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure of the 40 - day moving average [3] - In the spot market, the port spot market is stable. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1450. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is average, and the inventory at the two ports has increased slightly compared with the previous trading day [4]
纯碱日报:短期震荡偏强-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 12:04
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating and slightly bullish" for the soda ash industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoint - Soda ash is currently in the inventory digestion phase, and its price may remain oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term. Pay attention to the price trend near the 40 - day moving average and the downstream demand [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the main soda ash contract opened low and closed high, showing a bullish signal in the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands. The trading volume increased by 148,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 38,262 lots. The closing price was up 26 yuan/ton, a 2.19% increase [1] - The spot market was weakly stable and oscillating. Some enterprise device loads were slightly adjusted, and the overall production increased. New orders received by enterprises were average, and downstream demand was general [1] - The basis of North China's heavy soda ash was 87 yuan/ton, with a spot price of 1300 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental data - **Supply**: As of December 25, domestic soda ash production was 711,800 tons, a 1.32% decrease from the previous period. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 81.65%, a 1.09% decrease [2] - **Inventory**: As of December 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.4066 million tons, a 2.22% decrease from last Thursday [2] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for soda ash was general, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price purchases. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while that for heavy soda ash was weak. There was a possibility of cold - repair for glass production lines at the end of the month, which might lead to weaker demand for heavy soda ash [2] - **Profit**: As of December 25, the theoretical profit of the dual - alkali method was - 20.5 yuan/ton, a 50% increase; the ammonia - alkali method's theoretical profit was - 57.4 yuan/ton, a 13.94% increase. The cost support continued to weaken [3] - **Import and Export**: In November, the domestic soda ash export volume was 189,400 tons, a decrease of 25,100 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to November increased by 922,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The import volume in November was 25 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to November decreased by 97.76% compared with the same period last year [3] Main logic summary - Although soda ash production has decreased, the overall operating rate is still high, and new production capacity is continuously being put into use. The inventory is still at a high level, and the rigid demand is weakening due to the cold - repair of glass production lines [4] - There is some short - term support due to continuous losses, slight de - stocking, and the rebound of coal prices. The government's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition has also boosted market confidence [4]
塑料日报:震荡运行-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 12:02
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 30, new maintenance devices such as Zhanjiang BASF's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 86.5%. The overall supply and demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space for plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On December 30, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to a neutral level. As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years. The overall supply of plastics increased with new production capacity coming on - stream, and downstream demand decreased as the agricultural film season ended and terminal construction slowed. The cost - end crude oil price rebounded limitedly, and the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remained unchanged, with limited upward space [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6436 yuan/ton, the highest was 6486 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 0.09% below the 60 - day moving average. The position increased by 3545 lots to 512784 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 30, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 86.5%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83% week - on - week. The agricultural film was gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The packaging film orders also slightly decreased, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday increased by 20,000 tons to 600,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fluctuated around 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]
沥青日报:高开后震荡运行-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 11:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate. It suggests keeping an eye on the situation in Venezuela. The supply of asphalt is expected to decline due to refinery production changes and geopolitical risks, while demand varies regionally with northern winter - storage demand and southern general demand. The price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is at a relatively low level [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rose 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years. In January 2026, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) and a year - on - year decrease of 276,000 tons (12.1%). Some Shandong refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and Zhongyou Gaofu plans to stop production [1]. - Demand: Most downstream industries' operating rates declined last week. Road asphalt operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to 20% due to funds and weather. Northern road construction is ending, and subsequent rigid demand will slow, but winter - storage demand is being released. Southern demand is generally average, and low - price supplies from southern refineries are decreasing [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly last week but remains near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical factor: The US sanctions on Venezuela have caused concerns about the export of heavy crude oil, which may affect domestic asphalt production, and the discount of Venezuelan diluted asphalt has widened again [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 1.47% to 3038 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3017 yuan/ton, the highest was 3053 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 23,149 to 118,184 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract remained at - 98 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries like Qilu Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate rose 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%, 5.4 percentage points higher than last year, at a low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as from January to September 2025. From January to November 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4]. - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of December 26, most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 4 percentage points to 20% due to funds and weather [1][4]. - Social financing: From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries rose 0.4 percentage points to 13.6% compared to the week of December 19, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [4].
玻璃日报:短期震荡偏强-20251230
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 11:10
【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报:短期震荡偏强 发布日期:2025 年 12 月 30 日 一、市场行情回顾 1,期货市场:玻璃主力低开高走,日内走强。120 分钟布林带走开口喇叭, 震荡偏强信号,短线关注 30 均线附近压力。成交量较昨日增 38.9 万手,持仓量 较昨日减 7280 手;日内最高 1090,最低 1046,收盘 1087,(较昨日结算价) 涨 34 元/吨,涨幅 3.23%。 2,现货市场:河北市场出货尚可,企业多存优惠,下游采购仍偏理性,交 投一般;华东市场窄幅整理,近日浙江两条产线放水,对当地价格有支撑,下游 多数散单为主,维持刚需采购;西北市场变化不大,现货成交氛围偏弱;西南市 场多数持稳,个别上调。 3,基差:华北现货价格 1000,基差-87 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面,截止 12 月 25 日,全国浮法玻璃日均产量为 15.45 万吨,比 18 日-0.39%。全国浮法玻璃产量 108.4 万吨,环比-0.17%,同比-3.06%。行业平均 开工率 73.89%,环比-0.1%;平均产能利用率 77.42%,环比-0.14%。上周广东一 条产线冷修,昨日一条玻璃产线(长兴 ...