【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续回调 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 31 日，单独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 0.69%至 91.6 万吨，而钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.28%至 643.99 万吨，港口焦炭库存小降至 243.09 万吨，焦炭综合库存微增 0.04 万吨至 978.68 万吨，同比增幅缩窄至 2.93%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-14 元/吨，山准一级焦平均盈利 微增至 1 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利增至 34 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利小 降至-67 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 43 元/吨。 下游需求，钢材短期价格震荡偏弱运行，表需处在季节性萎缩阶段；247 家 钢厂钢厂盈利率回升至 38.1%，开工率及产能利用率同环比均有不同增幅，日均 铁水产量环比上周增加 0.85 万吨至 227.43 万吨，同比去年增加 2.23 万吨。 上游焦煤：煤矿炼焦煤库存续增 3.68%至 293.3 万吨，港口库存增加 4.17% 至 539.48 万吨；下游方面，独立焦企炼焦煤库存微增至 1052.5 万吨，钢厂炼焦 煤库存减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures price shows a narrow - range intraday oscillation. There is pressure above due to short - term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand. However, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to focus on buying opportunities after an over - decline. The restart time of Iranian plants after gas restrictions is crucial for determining whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 64,900 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 25,100 tons. In this cycle, 324,900 tons of visible foreign vessels and 109,000 tons of non - visible foreign vessels were included. Although the reverse flow support weakened significantly, the提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu continued well. With more unloading, the inventory accumulated. In Zhejiang, the rigid demand was stable, and the inventory also increased. In South China, the inventory showed an upward trend. In Guangdong, with a small amount of imported and domestic vessels replenished during the week, the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was acceptable, and the local inventory decreased. In Fujian, with concentrated imports and a small amount of domestic vessels replenished, the inventory continued to increase under the rigid demand of downstream industries [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the Venezuelan issue. Trump stated that the US needs full access to Venezuela's oil and other resources. If Venezuela does not comply with the regulations, the US will launch a second strike against it [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures price showed an intraday narrow - range oscillation. The support level should focus on the 60 - day moving average on an hourly basis. Due to short - term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand, there is pressure above. But imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high probability of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Attention can be paid to buying opportunities after an over - decline. Whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter depends on the restart time of Iranian plants after gas restrictions [3]

鸡蛋：截至 11 月末，全国产蛋鸡存栏量约 13.52 亿只，同比减少 5.32%， 且仍处于环比下降通道，预计 2026 年一季度存栏降幅将在 0.50%-0.80%之间。 尽管当前存栏量仍处历史较高水平，但中大码鸡蛋占比偏高，叠加部分散户因政 策合规压力缩减产能，中长期供应收缩预期逐步形成。今天盘面有尝试性冲高， 远月去产能和近月宽松仍然可能形成拉锯，不过已经不建议过度看空。暂时观望 为主。 生猪：2025 年 10 月能繁母猪存栏量降至 3990 万头，虽仍高于 3900 万头的 行业合理调控目标，但下降趋势明确。后续产能去化的速度和力度将成为决定供 应收缩幅度的关键，若能持续稳步下降至合理区间，国内生猪市场将迎来重要转 折。如产能去化进程加速，预计 2026 年末能繁母猪存栏降至 3750-3800 万头附 近；价格走势呈现前低后高特征，远月合约或考虑逢低买入机会。 【冠通期货研究报告】 养殖产业链日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 大豆：国内大豆现货市场价格走势稳中偏强，其中东北产区现货市场价格延 续偏强走势，国储拍卖成交良好、国储收购进行中、农户惜售、有订单主体继续 收购均为现 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 05 日 商品表现 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 666 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短线震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭， 短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注 30 均线附近，支撑看前期次低位附近。成交量较 昨日增 11.7 万手，持仓量较昨日增 10.1 万手；日内最高 1206，最低 1169，收 盘 1177，（较昨日结算价）跌 32 元/吨，跌幅幅 2.65%。 2，现货市场：偏弱震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，江苏德邦开车，逐步恢复， 供应呈现增加。下游企业观望居多，采购情绪不佳，维持低价补库。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 73 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 1 日，国内纯碱产量 69.71 万吨，环比-1.47 万吨，跌 幅 2.07%。其中，轻碱产量 32.61 万吨，环比-0.02 万吨；重碱产量 37.1 万吨， 环比-1.45 万吨。综合产能利用率 79.96%，上周 81.65%，环比-1.69%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 79.21%，环比-4.11%；联产产能利用率 72.77%，环比-1.08%。15 家年产能百万吨 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "shock - biased upward" [1] 2. Report's Core View - Recently, the consecutive cold - repairs of glass production lines have led to a short - term concentrated contraction in supply, boosting market sentiment. However, due to weak demand expectations and high inventory, prices are difficult to rebound quickly. Therefore, short - term prices may maintain a shock - biased upward trend. Attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and the cold - repair situation of production lines [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass main contract opened high and closed low, weakening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands have an upward - opening three - track, indicating a short - term shock - biased upward signal. The upper Bollinger Band line is the short - term pressure, and the 5/20 - day moving averages on the daily chart are the support. The trading volume decreased by 442,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 11,153 lots. The intraday high was 1097, the low was 1076, and the closing price was 1081, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: The Hebei market was mainly stable, with good sales of large - sized glass and average sales of small - sized glass, and downstream buyers were cautious. The East China market maintained stable prices for sales, and the overall situation was okay, with rigid demand still being the mainstream. The Central China market had little fluctuation, mainly driven by rigid demand. In the Northwest market, processing plants were gradually on holiday, and the market had prices but no transactions. In the Southwest market, prices were temporarily stable, and the price of some ultra - white glass increased by 40 [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1000, and the basis was - 81 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1st, the daily average output of national float glass was 151,500 tons, a decrease of 1.99% compared to the 25th. The national float glass output was 1.0733 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.38%. The industry's average opening rate was 73.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%; the average capacity utilization rate was 76.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. Five production lines were shut down for cold - repair last week, and the supply showed an obvious downward trend [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.757 million heavy boxes or 3.00%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.96%. The inventory days were 25.6 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared to the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and the inventory has shifted from enterprises to the middle and lower reaches due to sales policies, the release of speculative demand, and the reduction of production capacity [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, with the executable order days decreasing and currently concentrated between 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are still mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] - Profit: As of January 1st, according to Longzhong Information, the profit of natural - gas - fired production was - 191.40 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production was - 24.36 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 17.14 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production was - 65.23 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 43.34 yuan/ton). The spot price of glass and fuel prices have both decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of production lines has continued to deteriorate, with the average profit of different fuels in continuous losses for 10 weeks [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply: Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, accelerating the elimination of production capacity of some enterprises. Five glass production lines were shut down for cold - repair last week. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned the rectification of "involution - style" competition before the holiday, briefly boosting market sentiment [4] - Demand: Real estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real estate demand has continued to weaken [4]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Since January 1, 2026, the interest rates of existing "provident fund + commercial loans" have been lowered synchronously. For provident fund loans issued before May 8, 2025, the first - home mortgage rate for terms below 5 years dropped to 2.1%, and above 5 years to 2.6%; the second - home mortgage rate for terms below 5 years dropped to 2.525% and above 5 years to 3.075%. The 5 - year LPR for commercial loans dropped to 3.5%, and borrowers can choose a repricing cycle of 3, 6, or 12 months [2] - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points month - on - month. All three indices entered the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity [2] - Since January 1, 2026, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has officially entered the charging period. Initially, 6 product categories including steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen are included, and it is planned to expand to about 180 steel and aluminum - intensive downstream products by 2028 [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of coking coal options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The DCE announced that coking coal options will be listed for trading on January 16, with a maximum order quantity of 1,000 lots per order and a position limit of 8,000 lots [2] - US President Trump claimed that the US successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and took them out of Venezuela. The US oil embargo on Venezuela remains fully in effect, and large US oil companies will invest billions of dollars to repair Venezuela's dilapidated oil infrastructure. The UN Secretary - General is shocked, and the UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the US military action in Venezuela at 10:00 local time on January 5 [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: PVC, Shanghai nickel, platinum, crude oil, and plastics [4] - Night - session varieties' performance on Wednesday's day session: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.00%, precious metals 32.96%, oilseeds and oils 8.02%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 10.08%, energy 2.39%, chemicals 10.50%, grains 1.20%, agricultural and sideline products 3.43%, soft commodities 3.97%, and non - ferrous metals 25.45% [4][5] 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, involving sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel, and minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc [6] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | CSI 500 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.74 | 0.19 | 0.19 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.87 | 2.76 | 2.76 | | | German DAX | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.20 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.20 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.07 | | | | | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 1.01 | - 0.32 | - 0.32 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.78 | - 0.37 | - 0.37 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | | | LME Copper | - 0.49 | - 0.29 | - 0.29 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 2.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.19 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 4.33 | - 2.94 | - 2.94 | [7]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1720 1730 -10 河南 1700 1690 10 山东 1710 1710 0 山西 1570 1570 0 江苏 1710 1710 0 安徽 1720 1710 10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1700 1710 -10 山东华鲁 1690 1690 0 江苏灵谷 1760 1760 0 安徽昊源 1680 1670 10 山东05基差 -25 -5 -20 山东01基差 9 29 -20 河北05基差 -5 -5 0 河北01基差 29 29 0 1-5价差 68 68 0 5-9价差 34 34 0 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 12381 12381 0 中东FOB 378.5 378.5 0 美湾FOB 368.5 368.5 0 埃及FOB 435 435 0 波罗的海FOB 365 365 0 巴西CFR 402.5 402.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公 ...

沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月31日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升3.7个百分点至31.3%，较去年同期高了5.4个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌4个百分点至20%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华南炼厂低价货源支撑下，其出货 量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加11.17%至27.18万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比小 幅上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。由于美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施， 其中包括运输委内瑞拉石油的公司和船只，特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施全面封锁， 美国在委内瑞拉附近水域拦截第三艘油轮，特朗普确认美军在委内瑞拉行动中打击一座大型设施。 市场担忧委内瑞拉重质原油的出口，影响国内沥青的生产，委内瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度再次扩大。 本周山东部分炼厂有转产渣油计划，中油高富计划停产，沥青供应有所下降。北方道路施工逐渐收 尾，后续刚性需求将进一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 31, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the overall plastics supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the upward space for plastics in the near term is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The restart of Maoming Petrochemical's LDPE and other maintenance devices on December 31 increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders declining, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level, and the cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will further decline. The overall plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract showed a position - reducing and oscillating operation, closing at 6472 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.23%. The position decreased by 11,359 lots to 501,425 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film gradually exited the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons compared to the previous day, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a relatively high level in recent years. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4].