Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 31, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the overall plastics supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the upward space for plastics in the near term is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The restart of Maoming Petrochemical's LDPE and other maintenance devices on December 31 increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders declining, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level, and the cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will further decline. The overall plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract showed a position - reducing and oscillating operation, closing at 6472 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.23%. The position decreased by 11,359 lots to 501,425 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film gradually exited the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons compared to the previous day, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a relatively high level in recent years. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that PVC will run in a volatile manner. The supply - side PVC开工率 continues to decline, downstream demand is weak, social inventory is high, and although the commodity market sentiment is boosted, the production decline is limited, and the current is the traditional off - season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23% and is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The downstream开工率 decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the orders for downstream products are poor. Last week, export orders decreased slightly, with lower prices in the Indian market and limited demand. CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory increased slightly and is still high. From January to November 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased, but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua has recently started trial production. The anti - involution sentiment has further increased, and the commodity market sentiment has been boosted, but the decline in production is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and ran in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 4,772 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,822 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,805 yuan/ton, up 0.33% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position decreased by 23,231 lots to 923,530 lots [2] Basis - On December 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,500 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,805 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 305 yuan/ton, strengthening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by devices such as Salt Lake Magnesium Industry and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC开工率 decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand side: The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of December 25, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.43% week - on - week to 1.0611 million tons, 31.92% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory is still high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to operate in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, a decrease in downstream orders, and high inventory levels. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity comes online and the peak season for agricultural films ends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1][4]. - On the cost side, due to oversupply in the crude oil market and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there have been few changes in maintenance devices recently [1]. - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has fallen again, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market has limited the boost to the market [1]. - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, which boosted market sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and operated in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6326 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6375 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6348 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.67%. The open interest decreased by 33,492 lots to 507,887 lots [2]. - Spot: PP spot prices in various regions partially increased, with raffia priced at 5920 - 6330 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 31, 2025, the domestic commodity futures market ended its trading year. Basic metals led the gains, while precious metals led the losses. Throughout the year, some commodities like Shanghai silver and gold had significant increases, while others like alumina had large drops. The oil prices decreased over 10% in 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends in the future based on their supply - demand situations and geopolitical factors [5][6] - The geopolitical situation, especially the events in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, has a great impact on the commodity markets, especially on crude oil and related products [11][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - On December 31, 2025, basic metals had the highest gains, with Shanghai nickel rising 2.44%. Non - metallic building materials all increased, with glass up 1.30%. Most new energy materials rose, with polysilicon up 1.03%. Most oils and fats and oilseeds increased, with soybeans up 0.88%. All shipping futures rose, with the container shipping index (Europe line) up 0.52%. Precious metals had the largest declines, with platinum down 12.04%. Most energy products fell, with low - sulfur fuel oil down 2.17%. Most black series products declined, with coke down 1.25%. Most chemical products dropped, with ethylene glycol down 0.81%. Most agricultural and sideline products decreased, with corn down 0.67% [5] - Throughout 2025, Shanghai silver soared about 125%, Shanghai gold rose over 55%, and lithium carbonate rose over 54%. Alumina dropped nearly 46%, leading the decline [6] - On December 31, in the domestic futures market, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai aluminum rose over 2%, while platinum, palladium, and low - sulfur fuel oil had large drops. In the A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09%, while other major indices mostly declined. Treasury bond futures all closed down [8] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - OPEC + 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reaffirmed to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The peak season of crude oil demand ended, with US crude oil and refined oil inventories increasing. US crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks made progress, but the EU extended sanctions against Russia. The US - Venezuela military confrontation intensified, causing concerns about Venezuelan exports. The global crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, and crude oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [11] 3.2.2 Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 increased 3.7 percentage points to 31.3% last week, higher than the same period last year but at a low level in recent years. The expected production in January 2026 is 200 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The downstream开工率 mostly declined. The national shipment volume increased 11.17% to 27.18 million tons. The refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased slightly but remained near the lowest level in recent years. Due to the US sanctions on Venezuela, the supply of asphalt may decrease. The northern demand will slow down, while the winter storage demand in the north is being released. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and the situation in Venezuela should be monitored [12][14] 3.2.3 PP - As of the week of December 26, the PP downstream开工率 decreased 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%, at a low level in recent years. On December 31, the PP企业开工率 was around 82%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawing was around 27.5%. The petrochemical inventory is at a high level. The cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. The supply has new capacity, and the downstream is at the end of the peak season with orders decreasing. The PP is expected to have limited upward space, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15] 3.2.4 Plastic - On December 31, the plastic开工率 rose to around 87%. As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream开工率 decreased 0.62 percentage points to 41.83%. The petrochemical inventory is at a high level. The cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. There are new production capacities. The downstream demand is weakening, and the plastic is expected to have limited upward space. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.5 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. The downstream开工率 decreased 0.87 percentage points, and export orders decreased slightly. The social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. There is new production capacity. The PVC is expected to fluctuate [18]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月31日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+ 8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显 示，美国原油库存超预期累库，同时成品油库存也在增加，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量 继续小幅减少，但仍位于历史最高位附近。美乌会谈后，特朗普称，各方就结束俄乌冲突取得"非 常大的进展"，相关讨论已覆盖"接近95%的关键议题"，并形容当前进展已达到"非常接近达成协 议"的阶段，并称美乌安全保障安排"接近95%完成"。欧洲成品油裂解价差高位持续回落后在上周 企稳。不过欧盟最新决定将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月，至2026年7月31日。美国与委内瑞 拉军事对峙紧张，特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施全面封锁。美国在委内瑞拉附近水 域拦截第三艘油轮。特朗普确认美军在委内瑞拉行动中打击一座大型设施。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉 出口中断担忧。欧美成品油裂解价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定，市场仍担忧原油需求， OPEC+持续增产，中东地区出口增加，全球原油浮库高企，伊拉克近期恢复了卢克石油公司西古尔纳 2号油田。叠加俄乌和谈继 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the futures market, important macro - economic and industry - related news, and the trends of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also includes information on upcoming events and market closures due to holidays. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - Domestic precious metal futures initially continued to decline, with platinum and palladium hitting the daily limit down for the second consecutive day (13% decline), but rebounded at night. COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce [5]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both declined slightly, with U.S. crude down 0.22% to $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.24% to $61.34 per barrel [6]. - London base metals all rose, with LME nickel up 6.11% to $16780.0 per ton, LME copper up 3.69% to $12673.5 per ton, etc. [6]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with liquefied gas and glass up over 2%, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell over 1% [8]. Important News Macroeconomic News - South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol will visit China from January 4 - 7, 2026 [10]. - Yemen declared a 90 - day state of emergency and a 72 - hour blockade [10]. - In 2026, policies for consumer goods replacement will be optimized, and 62.5 billion yuan of special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement have been pre - allocated [10][11]. - The 8th China Securities Association Risk Management Professional Committee emphasized risk prevention and high - quality development [13]. - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December but debated the risks to the U.S. economy [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is expected to maintain the suspension of production increases due to global oil supply surplus [15]. - Central enterprises will ensure the supply and price stability of phosphate fertilizers [15]. - India's November crude oil imports increased 11.1% year - on - year, and gasoline and diesel exports also rose [16]. Metal Futures - A Guinean company has resumed bauxite mining and export [18]. - Some lead and lithium enterprises plan to cut production due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - The RKAB nickel ore quota for 2026 will start on January 1 [21]. Black - Series Futures - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports increased by 246.21 tons [23]. - The iron ore inventory at seven major Australian and Brazilian ports decreased by 122.5 tons [25]. - The coking coal long - term contract price decreased by 3.6% in December 2025 [26]. Agricultural Product Futures - Domestic soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate, and the soybean crushing volume is expected to decline during the New Year's holiday [28]. - The 2025 national grain purchase volume reached 830 billion catties, stable for three consecutive years [29]. - China's hog price rose 0.17% in the fourth week of December 2025 [31]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares were narrowly sorted, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up [34]. - Hong Kong stocks rose, and the 2025 Hong Kong IPO scale ranked first globally [34]. - The China Securities Association revised the evaluation method for brokerage investment banking business quality [35]. Industry - Four ministries issued an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the automotive industry [36]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promoted the innovation and development of Internet exchange centers [36]. - China's social logistics volume in the first 11 months increased 5% year - on - year [38]. Overseas - Trump threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell and has a candidate for the next Fed Chairman [43]. - India's GDP has exceeded Japan's, and it is expected to reach $7.3 trillion by 2030 [45]. - The Axis International Company sued Guinea for at least $28.9 billion in compensation [45]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks slightly declined, European stocks rose, and most Asia - Pacific stocks fell [46][48]. - South Korea plans to announce a roadmap for inclusion in the MSCI developed market index [48]. Commodities - Precious metals initially declined and then rebounded, and oil prices fell slightly [49]. - Base metals rose, and Indonesia plans to cut nickel production in 2026 [50][51]. - OPEC + is expected to maintain the suspension of production increases [52]. Bonds - The domestic bond market stabilized after a decline, and Japanese benchmark bonds fell [53]. - South Korea plans to issue more government bonds in 2026 [54]. - U.S. bond yields showed mixed trends [54]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index also rose [56]. - China's banking industry had a net foreign asset of $371.6 billion in September 2025 [56]. Upcoming Events and Market Closures - There are multiple events scheduled for December 31, 2025, including central bank operations and press conferences [58]. - Many markets will have closures or half - day trading due to the New Year's holiday [60].

Group 1: Hot News - The 2026 national subsidy program is officially released, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds for consumer goods trade - in. New subsidy objects include smart products, and home decoration and electric bicycles are removed. Car purchase subsidies remain at 2025 caps, and home appliance subsidy scope and rates are reduced [2] - From 2026, the VAT levy rate for individuals selling homes bought less than 2 years ago drops to 3%, and those bought 2 or more years ago are exempt. This will boost second - hand housing trading activity but increase supply [2] - Indonesia plans to cut production in 2026 to balance supply and demand, controlling nearly 70% of global nickel output [2] - In December 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage floating value drops 55 yuan/ton, a 3.6% decline [3] - Last week, domestic oil mills had high operating rates, and soybean meal inventory continued to accumulate. During the New Year's Day holiday, soybean crushing is expected to fall to about 1.8 million tons, but inventory may remain high at around 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, Shanghai silver, PVC, and plastic [4] - Night - session performance shows different percentage changes for various commodity futures sectors, with precious metals at 32.77%, non - metallic building materials at 2.20%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 0.00% daily change, 1.97% monthly change, and 18.30% annual change [6] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, etc. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The hot - rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Although the output of hot - rolled coil rebounded last week but is at a relatively low level, there is still room for output to rise. The recovery of apparent demand shows the resilience of demand, but the subsequent demand increment is limited. The total inventory continues to be destocked, but the total amount is still at a high level. With the expectation of a relatively loose macro - environment, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom - bust line. The winter storage market in January and the recovery slope of production capacity also need to be monitored. It is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation, and there are no unilateral driving factors for now [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 7,022 lots, with a trading volume of 311,439 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,278 yuan, the high was 3,298 yuan, and it closed at 3,282 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.33% [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coil in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The spot - futures basis was 8 yuan, close to par [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.63 million tons to 293.54 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 13.60 million tons year - on - year. The output rebounded after a sharp decline last week, currently near the lowest level of the year and at a near - four - year low, which enhances price support. The production cut was mainly due to profit contraction, more steel mill maintenance, some steel mills switching to rebar production, and the seasonal off - season [4]. - **Demand**: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 8.76 million tons to 307.04 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 2.29 million tons year - on - year. The apparent demand recovered this week, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs attention [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 13.50 million tons week - on - week to 377.22 million tons (social inventory decreased by 10.6 million tons, steel mill inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, and the destocking accelerated, indicating the demand's resilience in late December, probably due to enterprises' export rush. However, the total inventory is at a near - four - year high, and the subsequent destocking speed needs attention [4]. - **Policy**: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is positive for prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5]. - **External Macro**: In the US, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The supply - side output has decreased significantly, there is an expectation of the start of winter storage demand, an export rush market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the strength of iron ore as a furnace charge [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of steel mill production in January may exceed expectations, the demand will seasonally weaken, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation will suppress prices [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Varieties Analysis - Release Date: December 30, 2025 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 30, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum and palladium hit the daily limit down, both with a 13% decline. Shanghai tin dropped over 4%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver nearly 4%, and Shanghai gold over 3%. International copper, Shanghai copper, and the container shipping European line fell over 2%. On the upside, Shanghai nickel and glass rose over 3%, and methanol and soda ash rose over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract rose 0.36%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.03%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract rose 0.59%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract rose 0.24%. In the bond futures market, the 2 - year Treasury bond (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year Treasury bond (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, the 10 - year Treasury bond (T) main contract fell 0.02%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond (TL) main contract rose 0.17% [6][7] - As of 15:24 on December 30, in terms of capital inflows in domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2603 had an inflow of 2.818 billion yuan, CSI 2603 had an inflow of 2.795 billion yuan, and SSE 2603 had an inflow of 1.62 billion yuan. In terms of outflows, Shanghai gold 2602 had an outflow of 7.982 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2602 had an outflow of 2.928 billion yuan, and Shanghai copper 2602 had an outflow of 1.556 billion yuan [7] 2. Commodity - Specific Analysis 2.1 Copper - **Market Trend**: Shanghai copper opened lower and closed lower on the day. The zero - priced long - term concentrate processing fee for 2026 boosted market sentiment, leading to consecutive days of rising copper prices. However, due to factors such as squeezed copper product profits, decreased capacity utilization, and weak downstream demand, the upward drive was affected. But the strong upward trend of copper remained unchanged [9] - **Supply and Demand**: SMM predicted that the electrolytic copper output in December would increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month, a 5.96% increase, and a 6.69% year - on - year increase. The continuous accumulation of cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated a decline in downstream purchasing power [9] 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower on the day. Although the downstream energy - storage battery market continued to grow, the growth rate slowed down. The expected production cut of lithium iron phosphate in the first quarter weakened the support for lithium carbonate prices [11] - **Supply and Demand**: SMM data showed that the output of lithium carbonate increased by about 150 tons last week to 22,161 tons. The production of lithium extraction from salt lakes continued to decline. The downstream demand was expected to weaken as the terminal peak season was coming to an end, and the purchase tax would be halved starting next year [11] 2.3 Crude Oil - **Market Trend**: OPEC+ countries reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. However, due to the end of the demand peak season, the continuous increase in US oil inventories, and the high - level production of US crude oil, the crude oil market remained in a state of supply surplus. It was expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13] 2.4 Asphalt - **Market Trend**: The supply of asphalt was expected to decrease as some refineries planned to switch production or stop production. The demand in the north was gradually ending, but the winter storage demand continued to be released. The price of asphalt in Shandong rose slightly, and it was expected that the asphalt futures price would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the asphalt production rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3%. The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 was expected to be 2 million tons, a 7.3% month - on - month decrease. The downstream construction rate mostly declined, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries increased slightly [14] 2.5 PP (Polypropylene) - **Market Trend**: The downstream demand for PP was in the late peak season, with orders continuing to decline. Although the overall sentiment of bulk commodities was boosted, the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It was expected that the upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [16] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of December 26, the downstream construction rate of PP decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. The construction rate of PP enterprises decreased to about 82%, and the petrochemical inventory was at a relatively high level [16] 2.6 Plastic - **Market Trend**: The plastic market was affected by factors such as new production capacity and the end of the peak season for agricultural films. Although the overall sentiment of bulk commodities was positive, the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It was expected that the upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17][18] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of December 26, the downstream construction rate of PE decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83%. New production capacity was put into operation, and the construction rate decreased slightly. The demand for agricultural films decreased, and the downstream purchasing willingness was weak [17] 2.7 PVC - **Market Trend**: The supply of PVC decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The export situation was not optimistic, and the social inventory was still high. It was expected that PVC would fluctuate. The real estate market was still in the adjustment stage, and improvement required time [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The PVC construction rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. The downstream construction rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the export orders decreased slightly [19] 2.8 Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coking coal opened lower and closed higher on the day. Although the downstream demand was weak, the market was affected by factors such as the expected production cut of mines and the progress of winter storage. It was expected to fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to frequent capital rotation [20][21] - **Supply and Demand**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased by 2.41% month - on - month. The import of coal increased, and the total inventory increased by 54,600 tons. The profit of coke enterprises decreased, and the fourth round of price cuts was initiated [21] 2.9 Urea - **Market Trend**: Urea opened flat and closed higher on the day. Although the spot market continued to decline, the futures market rebounded, and the sentiment improved. There was limited fundamental support, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [22] - **Supply and Demand**: The current daily output of urea was 200,000 tons. There were plans for production cuts in the southwest in January, but also plans for the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices. The downstream compound fertilizer factory's construction rate decreased, and the inventory decreased [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, with expectations of weak and volatile crude oil prices. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries with additional voluntary production cuts reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased more than expected, along with an increase in refined oil inventories, and the overall oil product inventories continue to rise [1]. - U.S. crude oil production has continued to decline slightly but remains near the historical high. After the U.S. - Ukraine talks, Trump said that significant progress has been made in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, with discussions covering nearly 95% of key issues [1]. - European refined oil crack spreads have stabilized after a continuous decline from the high level. The EU has decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months until July 31, 2026. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have led to concerns about export disruptions in Venezuela [1]. - The crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the U.S. are low. After the Fed's December interest - rate meeting, the market still worries about crude oil demand. The number of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and exports in the Middle East have risen [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2602 contract, rose 0.11% to 436.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 434.9 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 439.7 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 1796 to 30384 lots [2]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised U.S. crude oil production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the morning of December 30, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending December 19, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.432 million barrels, and were 3.43% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.862 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.118 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 202,000 barrels, less than the expected increase of 440,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels [1][3]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was reduced by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October to 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - U.S. crude oil production for the week ending December 19 decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.825 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [1][4]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.539 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.98%. Among them, weekly gasoline demand decreased by 1.50% to 8.942 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.701 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%. Weekly diesel demand increased by 9.77% to 4.156 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.883 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.44%. The single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased by 1.28% month - on - month, mainly driven by a significant decline in gasoline and propane [4].