黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 黑色商品日报 | | 锰硅：周四，锰硅期价震荡走强，主力合约报收 5676 元/吨，环比上涨 0.96%，持仓环比下降 2966 手至 39.85 万手。昨日黑色板块走势偏强，焦煤价格领涨，锰硅期价重心环比上移。消息面，近日市场有消息 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 传出，南非锰矿将减量发运。据铁合金在线，"因近月南非部分矿区到萨尔达尼亚港口和伊丽莎白港口的 | | | | 铁路线路频发火车脱轨事件，致使部分锰矿山发运效率减缓，7 月发运至中国南非锰矿存个别矿山减量。 | | | 锰硅 | 但因火车脱轨事件仅存在于部分路线，影响面积暂时有限"。近期部分锰矿贸易商小幅上调锰矿报价。基 | 震荡偏强 | | | 本面来看，锰硅周产量虽处于近年来同期低位，但截止上周末，锰硅周产量已经连续 5 周环比回升。需求 | | | | 端，主流钢招定价后，其余钢招陆续进行中，未有明显超预期改善。综合来看，消息扰动市场情绪，成本 | | | | 支撑增强，锰硅期价重心环比上移，但基本面持续驱动力度不强，短期锰硅以震荡略偏强看待，上方空间 | ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约涨 1.15%至 61500 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 400 元/吨至 60600 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 400 元/吨至 59000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 200 元/吨至 58070 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 220 吨至 22590 吨。 2. 供应端，周度碳酸锂产量环比增加 305 吨至 18767 吨，其中云母增量相对明显，6 月碳酸锂产量环 比增加超 9%。需求端，周度库存周转天数均有增加，磷酸铁锂相对增加明显，6 月两大正极材料消 耗碳酸锂环比下降 10%。库存端，周度库存环比增加 1936 吨至 136837 吨，其中下游增加 269 吨至 40635 吨，中间环节增加 1260 吨至 37170 吨，上游增加 407 吨至 59032 吨。 3. 当前价格水平基本处在阶段性底部位置，从锂矿价格 600-610 美金来看短期仍有支撑，但是基本面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.64% to close at 68.76 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.77% to close at 13,720 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 24,084 lots to 584,200 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,957 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,020 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the macro - level remains the focus, with the U.S. dollar index oscillating weakly, providing some support for U.S. cotton prices, but the fundamental driving force is limited. In the domestic market, the center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has oscillated upward, and the position of the main contract has continued to increase. Fundamentally, low inventory is a supporting factor, and the weather in Xinjiang in mid - June had some disturbances, supporting cotton prices. In the short term, the macro - sentiment has heated up, and the fundamental support has strengthened. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton price may continue to move up slightly, but the upside space is expected to be relatively limited due to the expected high yield of new cotton. Attention should be paid to macro and weather changes [1]. - **Sugar**: From August 1, 2025, the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline will be increased from the current 27% to 30%, and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel will be increased from the current 14% to 15%. The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups are 6,030 - 6,110 yuan per ton, up 20 - 40 yuan per ton; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups are 5,810 - 5,850 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton. Regarding raw sugar, the increase in the Brazilian ethanol blending ratio is attracting attention, which can be seen as a way to digest the increased sugarcane production and support the bottom price, but it does not have a strong boosting effect under the high - yield environment with limited conversion volume. In the domestic market, raw sugar is moving sideways, the domestic spot quotes are rising, the group inventory pressure is not large, and there is some inventory in the trading sector. In the short term, it will continue the small - scale rebound driven by basis repair [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 55, up 35; the main basis is 1,300, up 7. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,957 yuan per ton, up 125 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,020 yuan per ton, up 82 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 184, up 18; the main basis is 310, up 2. The Nanning spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,100 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,334, down 45 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 295. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,957 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,050 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,023 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,268 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 53.1, down 0.2 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.7, up 0.3 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.1, unchanged from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.3, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Sugar**: On June 26, the Nanning spot price of sugar was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,100 yuan per ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 24,302, down 310 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [3][4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the contract spread, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Guangda Futures Research Institute [6][14][16]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | | 分 项 | 2025/6/25 | 2025/6/26 | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 7520 | 7720 | 200 | | | | 近月 | 7540 | 7720 | 180 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 8100 | 8100 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 8150 | 8150 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 7950 | 7950 | 0 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 8200 | 8200 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 8100 | 8100 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 8500 | 8500 | 0 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华东) | 8150 | 8200 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After sharp rises and falls in the market, oil prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow range, and there is room for a slight increase in the oil price center in the future, subject to further guidance from OPEC+ production policies [1] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market will be supported in the short term, but the supply from Iran and Russia is declining, and attention should be paid to the risk of significant oil price fluctuations [3] - The price of asphalt is affected by both the cost - side oil price and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate [3] - The supply of polyester products is expected to increase, demand support is insufficient, and prices are expected to return to a low - range consolidation, with PX and TA following the cost of crude oil [4] - The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4] - Methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as the expected resumption of Iranian production and the impact on port arrivals in Taicang [6] - The fundamentals of polyolefins have not improved significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the decline in crude oil prices [6] - PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate as the downstream enters the off - season, but the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI August contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; Brent August contract closed up $0.05 to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; SC2508 closed at 498 yuan per barrel, down 7.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% decrease. Russian Urals crude oil price has fallen below the $60 per - barrel limit [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3019 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2508 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.19% at 3693 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased week - on - week [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.2% at 3563 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 0.7% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.42% at 4770 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.69% at 4293 yuan per ton. Iranian ethylene glycol plants are expected to resume production, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a low - range consolidation [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 270 yuan per ton to 14040 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber rose 335 yuan per ton to 12145 yuan per ton. The global natural rubber production in May decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly [4] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2765 yuan per ton. Iranian plants are expected to resume production, and methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 7150 - 7250 yuan per ton. Due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **PVC**: The prices in East, North, and South China markets fluctuate. As the downstream enters the off - season, PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on June 26th and 25th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price increases and decreases, and basis changes [9] 3.3 Market News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending June 20th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels [12] - An impaired facility at the 14th - phase project of the South Pars Refinery in Iran's Bushehr Province has resumed operation [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of inter - period contract spreads for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, are provided [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report includes charts of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of production profits for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are presented [73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡收跌，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.28%，成交额 1.62 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.45%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.41%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.35%， | | | | 上证 50 指数下跌 0.34%。非银金融板块走弱，杠杆市场同步回调。美联储主 | | | | 席近日接受国会质询，表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径，同时点阵图 | | | | 也显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大，这都使得市场开始提前计价降 | | | | 息，纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振，连续两日上涨，但 A 股股 | | | | 指目前处于历史均值以上水平，很难连续大幅冲高。此外，稳定币概念近期 | | | | 火爆，稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性，同时也可用作新型储备 | | | 股指 | 货币，对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市场缺乏 | 震荡 | | | 热点题材 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.78%，报收 68.32 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.81%，报收 13645 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 18170 手至 56.01 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14832 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 65 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14938 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 55 元/吨。国际市场方面，美联储多位官员发表鸽派讲话，7 月降息预期 | 震荡偏 | | | 升温，美元指数跳水，美棉价格小幅走强。基本面驱动有限，关注宏观及天气扰动。 | | | | 国内市场方面，近期市场情绪升温，沪指连续两日涨超 1%，商品多数走强，郑棉 | 强 | | | 价格突破 13600 元/吨。我们认为近期棉花商业库存偏低、6 月中旬新疆天气有部 | | | | 分扰动也是主要驱动因素。综合来看，短期宏观情绪升温，基本面支撑增强，郑棉 | | | | 价格重心或将持 ...

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点评 25 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2508 收于 30625 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.59%，持 仓增仓 7821 手至 80107 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 34500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 3875 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7555 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.55%，持仓增仓 13217 手至 30.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 60 元/吨。西南复产增速进入瓶颈期，下游稍有排产放量，需求短 期回暖，硅厂重拾封盘不报策略，工业硅止跌但反弹难及前高。多晶硅西 南复产增量明确，终端自下而上压价，仍以偏空思路对待。月内双硅边际 或有短暂分歧，持续关注双硅比价关系，PS-SI 价差收敛机会。 工业硅日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | | 2025/6/24 | ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 近期，玉米 7 月合约多空主力明显减持，多头主力移仓有限，获利了结加剧行情 | 震荡 | | | 波动。期货市场虽显疲软，但现货行情表现仍偏强，主流报价仍维持相对高位， | | | | 贸易商余货有限。深加工玉米收购价格处于高位。 华北地区玉米价格主流价格 | | | | 维持稳定，局部地区窄幅调整。山东深加工企业门前到货量车辆尚可，除了部分 | | | | 本地贸易商开始出货外，部分地区东北货源继续补充华北市场，深加工企业玉米 | | | 玉米 | 收购价格整体稳定，个别窄幅调整。 销区市场玉米价格整体稳定运行。期货表 | | | | 现一般，但产区玉米报价坚挺。销区港口报价暂稳，市场高价接受度有限，饲料 | | | | 厂现货多提前期订单，刚需补库，小麦替代优势仍较明显。技术上，玉米 7 月持 | | | | 仓向 9 月转移的过程中，多头移仓有限，受仓位调整影响玉米 9 月合约上行乏力， | | | | 9 月多单减仓离场，警惕价格持续调整。 | | | 豆粕 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 25, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.96% to 60,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton to 60,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton to 58,600 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 58,270 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5 tons to 22,370 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased month - on - month, with a more than 9% increase in June. On the demand side, the weekly inventory turnover days increased, especially for lithium iron phosphate. In June, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials decreased by 10% month - on - month. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 1,352 tons to 134,901 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased by 320 tons to 40,366 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 700 tons to 35,910 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 972 tons to 58,625 tons. The combined inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium ore reached about 3.5 months [3]. - The current price level is basically at a phased bottom. The lithium ore price of 600 - 610 US dollars provides short - term support, but there is no inflection point in the fundamentals yet, and market sentiment remains bearish. In the short term, it is still necessary to be vigilant about the position of the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 60,880 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 61,180 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 619 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,875 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 60,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 58,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 58,270 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 63,420 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,370 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 8.13 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 51,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 1,930 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 3.92 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan [5]. - Precursor & cathode materials: The prices of some products such as ternary precursor 523, ternary material 523, and lithium iron phosphate changed slightly, with the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) up 1,500 yuan/ton to 218,350 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells & batteries: The prices of some products such as 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt acid lithium cells changed slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - Price differences: Charts show the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][18][19]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [35][37]. - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].