碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2511 合约跌 3.1%至 71880 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1600 元/吨至 75900 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1600 元/吨至 73600 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 350 元/吨至 76000 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 2111 吨至 34118 吨。 2. 供应端，周度生产延续放缓，降幅收窄，周度产量环比减少 108 吨至 19030 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环 比增加 70 吨至 12249 吨，锂云母提锂环比减少 150 吨至 2500 吨；9 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 1.7% 至 86730 吨，其中增幅主要是锂辉石提锂，少量回收提锂，锂云母和盐湖提锂环比下降。需求端， 9 月三元材料环比下降 1.5%至 72330 吨，磷酸铁锂环比增加 5.96%至 335250 吨。库存端，总库存环 比延续小幅下降，周度库存环比减少 407 吨至 141136 吨，下游和中间 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，美国 7 月 JOLTS 就业人数录得 718.1 万人，低于市场 | | | 预期 738.2 万人和前值 743.7 万人，低靡的就业数据继续强化了 9 月降息预期。美联储 | | | 理事沃勒表示未来 3 到 6 个月可多次降息。基本面方面，"金九银十"是国内传统消费 | | 铜 | 旺季，在国内进口连续不及预期及废铜政策不明朗下开工率偏低下，精铜消费有望得 | | | 到较大提振，关注国内去库速度。海外部分国家债市的抛售潮及金价的异动使得市场 | | | 避险情绪走高，铜价表现偏谨慎，但基本面继续改善下，应仍偏乐观看待，重心有望继 | | | 续抬升，但也需要注意美衰退预期及高铜价对下游需求也形成制约，价格上行高度或 | | | 受限。 | | 铝 | 氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2959 元/吨，跌幅 2.15%，持仓增仓 13870 手至 26.2 | | | 万手。沪铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AL2510 收于 20725 元/ ...

Group 1: Research Views - Urea futures price oscillated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1714 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%. The spot market was basically stable. Urea supply fluctuated at a low level, with a daily output of 18.24 tons on September 3. Demand sentiment dropped significantly, and the inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly by 0.85%. The market is waiting for the results of the Indian tender. Before the news is clear, the market sentiment will remain weak, and the volatility may increase with the results of the tender. The outlook is for a volatile trend [1]. - The price of soda ash futures fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1276 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.24%. The spot market was mostly stable. The operating load of soda ash plants still fluctuated, and the industry's operating rate rose to 86.23% on September 3. Demand was still weak and stable. The supply - demand support for soda ash is limited, and the futures price will mainly show a wide - range oscillating trend. The short - term market sentiment is weak [1]. - The price of glass futures oscillated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1135 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.61%. The spot market quotation was stable. Glass supply remained stable, and the demand follow - up sentiment did not change significantly. The demand for glass has not improved significantly, but manufacturers are reluctant to cut prices. The futures market has limited new drivers, and the market sentiment is temporarily weak, with the market in a bottom - consolidation phase [1]. Group 2: Market Information Urea - On September 3, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,205, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 961 [4]. - On September 3, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.24 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and 0.2 tons less than the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.96%, a decrease of 4.83 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. - On September 3, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions of China remained unchanged, with Shandong at 1710 yuan/ton, Henan at 1720 yuan/ton, etc. [6]. - On September 3, the inventory of urea enterprises was 109.5 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons or 0.85% from last week [7]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 3, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 5,232, an increase of 150 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 1340. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,026, a decrease of 5 from the previous trading day [9]. - On September 3, the spot prices of soda ash varied by region. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1220 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton [9]. - On September 3, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.23%, up from 83.97% the previous working day [10]. - On September 3, the average price of the float glass market was 1156 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 15.96 tons, also unchanged [10]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts such as the closing price of the main urea and soda ash contracts, their basis, trading volume and open interest, the price difference between different contract months, and the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, as well as the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [12][14][18]. Group 4: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [28]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won many honors [28]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 3, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,490 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.29%. The position decreased by 1,738 lots to 279,700 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,369 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade silicon dropped back to 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 115 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 52,160 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The position increased by 3,355 lots to 149,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened to 3,300 yuan/ton. The resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon and the increase in crystalline silicon production have become marginal drivers, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. After the previous anti-involution news was fully priced in, the trading focus of polysilicon has gradually shifted to fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of terminal power station yields, the acceptance of price increases in the component sector has reached its peak, and the sentiment in the silicon material market has cooled along with the downstream market. Before the introduction of specific policy measures, the market is still in a game between policy boosts and fundamental drags. Polysilicon has entered a range-bound mode with obvious tops and bottoms, and policy dynamics have a phased impact on the market. Attention should be paid to the results of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's energy-saving special inspection on September 30 and the destocking situation in the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan to 115 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 319 to 50,348, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 955 tons to 252,265 tons. The inventory at Huangpu Port remained unchanged at 55,000 tons, and the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 2,000 tons to 68,000 tons. The inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 48,500 tons. The industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 271,400 tons, and the total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 7,000 tons to 442,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 285 yuan/ton to 52,160 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 330 yuan/ton to 52,330 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount increased by 330 yuan to 3,330 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,870, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 11,040 tons to 206,400 tons. The polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [12][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][24]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [27][29][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The production of building materials has slightly declined, inventory has continued to accumulate, and demand has been sluggish, putting pressure on prices. The high level of warehouse receipts also affects the futures market [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend. Although the global iron ore shipment volume has increased, the iron - water production has decreased, and the inventory of ports and steel mills has also decreased, resulting in a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be weak and volatile. For coking coal, domestic mines are affected by production inspections and accidents, and downstream demand is cautious. For coke, although the profit of coking enterprises is acceptable and the subsequent start - up will increase, the steel mill's procurement rhythm has slowed down [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are expected to be volatile. For manganese - silicon, the supply is increasing, the steel - procurement price is decreasing, and the cost is stable. For silicon - iron, production is in a loss state, the steel - procurement price has decreased, and the cost is stable [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32%. The spot price was stable or decreased, and the trading volume declined. The production of building materials decreased by 3.29 tons, the social inventory increased by 15.15 tons, the factory inventory increased by 4.5 tons, and the apparent demand increased by 1.4 tons. It is expected to be in a weak consolidation phase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 777 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7%. The port spot price was strong. The global shipment volume increased, the iron - water production decreased by 0.62 tons, and the inventory of ports and steel mills decreased. It is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. The spot price decreased. Domestic mines were affected by production inspections and accidents, and downstream demand was cautious. It is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1594 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The spot price was stable. The coking coal price decreased, the profit of coking enterprises was acceptable, and the subsequent start - up will increase, but the steel mill's procurement rhythm slowed down. It is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon futures price was volatile and weak, with the main contract at 5732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The market price was 5500 - 5800 yuan/ton. The supply was increasing, the steel - procurement price was decreasing, and the cost was stable. It is expected to be volatile [1][3]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The silicon - iron futures price was volatile and weak, with the main contract at 5520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The market price was 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. Production was in a loss state, the steel - procurement price decreased, and the cost was stable. It is expected to be volatile [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The spread data of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided, including the 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month spreads, etc., and their changes compared with the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis data of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided, including the basis of different contracts and their changes compared with the previous period [4]. - **Spot**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their changes compared with the previous period are provided [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit data of rebar (including disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and the spread data of various varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) and their changes compared with the previous period are provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 are provided [6][7][10][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided [26][31][32][33][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts of the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. are provided [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts of the profit of rebar (including disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) are provided [47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current position is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [53]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current position is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has rich honors in the field of coal futures [53]. - **Liu Xi**: Current position is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [53]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current position is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting, which could put pressure on oil prices if the increase exceeds expectations. The market is also affected by factors such as Russian oil exports and US inventory data [1] - For fuel oil, the reduction of arbitrage cargo inflows from the West and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may provide some support, but overall demand lacks significant highlights [2] - In the asphalt market, the increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but the rise may be limited by increased supply in some areas. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease [2] - Polyester products are affected by factors such as high PX supply, increased TA maintenance, and under - expected seasonal improvement in terminal demand, with prices expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - The rubber market is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and favorable heavy - truck sales data, but is also affected by产区 weather and demand conditions, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area in September due to limited supply growth and expected demand recovery [5] - Polyolefins are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations in September as the supply and demand are both strong and the cost - side is stable [5] - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September due to weak real - estate construction demand and expected export decline, but there is a risk of policy - driven speculation [6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. WTI October contract closed at $63.97/barrel, down $1.62 or - 2.47%. Brent November contract closed at $67.60/barrel, down $1.54 or - 2.23%. SC2510 closed at 483.6 yuan/barrel, down 8.2 yuan or - 1.67%. OPEC+ may consider further increasing production. Russian oil exports in August slightly increased, and US inventory data showed a rise in crude and distillate stocks and a decline in gasoline stocks. The market is waiting for the OPEC+ production decision, and an unexpected increase in production could pressure oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 closed down 0.04% at 2840 yuan/ton, and LU2511 closed down 0.85% at 3512 yuan/ton. The reduction of Western arbitrage cargo inflows and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support the market, but overall demand lacks highlights. US sanctions on Iranian trade may affect high - sulfur fuel oil delivery [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 closed down 0.36% at 3550 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46% week - on - week; the refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50% week - on - week; and the refinery operating rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% week - on - week. The increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but supply increases in some areas may limit the rise [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4732 yuan/ton, down 0.5%; EG2601 closed at 4331 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. PX supply is high, TA maintenance is increasing, and terminal demand improvement is under - expected. The prices of polyester products are expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 rose 15 yuan/ton to 15885 yuan/ton, NR rose 5 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton, and BR rose 65 yuan/ton to 11885 yuan/ton. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The market is affected by factors such as weather, demand, and inventory, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are given. Due to profit recovery, MTO device may resume production, and demand is expected to recover in September. Supply growth is limited, and prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profit margins of polyolefins are provided. In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventory is transferring from society to downstream. Prices are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices in different regions are presented. The real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports are expected to decline due to anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share. An additional increase would mean starting to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule [11] - Russian oil exports by sea slightly increased in August. However, exports to India decreased by 21% month - on - month to 1.3 million barrels per day. The US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian products exported to the US in August [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for different products are shown, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [25][27][31] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The charts of spreads between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are provided [39][41][44] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The charts of spreads and ratios between different products are presented, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [56][58][62] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are shown [64][65][67] Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director and energy and chemical director, Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, etc., Di Yilin, a rubber/polyester analyst, and Peng Haibo, a methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst [70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index: Bullish [1] - Treasury bonds: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has shown a "narrowing" trend since September, with high trading congestion in individual themes. Short - term corrections are normal due to factors like profit - taking. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year will benefit the A - share market. Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system will also have a positive impact. Liquidity - driven market trends will continue with obvious structural features and accelerated sector rotation [1]. - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures closed with gains across different tenors. The central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. After continuous declines in August, the bond market adjustment is basically in place, but the strong performance of the equity market due to anti - involution expectations is negative for long - term bonds. Short - term bonds are expected to remain stable, while long - term bonds will see increased volatility [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,949.0 | 2,992.8 | - 43.8 | - 1.46% | | IF | 4,430.0 | 4,481.2 | - 51.2 | - 1.14% | | IC | 6,788.8 | 6,896.2 | - 107.4 | - 1.56% | | IM | 7,142.6 | 7,251.4 | - 108.8 | - 1.50% | [3] 3.1.2 Stock Indexes | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 2,961.0 | 2,992.9 | - 31.9 | - 1.07% | | CSI 300 | 4,459.8 | 4,490.5 | - 30.6 | - 0.68% | | CSI 500 | 6,868.5 | 6,961.7 | - 93.2 | - 1.34% | | CSI 1000 | 7,206.9 | 7,313.9 | - 107.0 | - 1.46% | [3] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.45 | 102.41 | 0.036 | 0.04% | | TF | 105.73 | 105.57 | 0.155 | 0.15% | | T | 108.16 | 107.96 | 0.205 | 0.19% | | TL | 117.15 | 116.68 | 0.47 | 0.40% | [3] 3.2 Market News - China's RatingDog Services PMI in August was 53, up from 52.6 in the previous month. The RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.9, up from 50.8 in the previous month [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of their respective monthly basis [6][7][9][10][11] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - term spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][16][17][18] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [21][22][23][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the point differences and annualized costs of stock index futures roll - over on September 3rd [1][2][12][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On September 3rd, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points with a trading volume of 1012.296 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65% to 12472.0 points with a trading volume of 1351.79 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.46% with a trading volume of 486.667 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 1.34% with a trading volume of 449.58 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.07% with a trading volume of 161.065 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.68% with a trading volume of 655.697 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 dropped 107.0 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and computer significantly pulled the index down [2] - The CSI 500 dropped 93.23 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as computer, non - bank finance, and national defense and military industry significantly pulled the index down [2] - The CSI 300 dropped 30.62 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as power equipment and communication significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as banks, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulled the index down [2] - The SSE 50 dropped 31.89 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as pharmaceutical biology significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as banks, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulled the index down [2] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 72.73, IM01 had - 133.83, IM02 had - 271.16, and IM03 had - 448.11 [12] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 79.74, IC01 had - 130.22, IC02 had - 237.48, and IC03 had - 382.87 [12] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 16.61, IF01 had - 23.0, IF02 had - 42.88, and IF03 had - 63.45 [12] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 4.99, IH01 had - 5.58, IH02 had - 6.58, and IH03 had - 4.13 [12] 3.4 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides the point differences and annualized costs of roll - over for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points, such as for the IF contract, at 09:45, the point differences between different contracts (e.g., IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678) are presented [20][21][23][24][25]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 点评 2 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 8470 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.13%，持 仓减仓 3969 手至 28.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9369 元/吨，较上 一交易上调 5 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 105 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 51875 元/吨，日 内涨幅 3.97%，持仓减仓 4554 手至 14.6 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨，现货贴水 扩至 3000 元/吨。工业硅南北复产和晶硅增量成为边际驱动，整体运行 重心有望小幅抬升。前期反内卷消息充分计价后，多晶硅交易重心逐 步偏移至基本面逻辑。因终端电站收益率限制，组件环节对涨价的接 受度见顶，硅料跟随下游市场情绪降温。在具体政策举措出台之前， 市场仍位于政策提振和基本面拖累的博弈之间，多晶硅进入顶底明显 的区间模式，政策动态对盘面有阶段性扰动效应。重点关注 930 工信部 节能专项监察结果以及产业链库存去化情况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 4.3% to 72,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 850 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate dropped by 850 yuan/ton to 75,200 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 300 yuan/ton to 76,350 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 810 tons to 32,007 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. Weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 37 tons to 2,515 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 9 tons to 1,766 tons. In terms of demand, according to the production scheduling data of market consulting agencies, the production scheduling of cathode materials in September increased by 5 - 6% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, decreasing by 407 tons to 141,136 tons. Among them, downstream inventory increased by 1,293 tons to 52,800 tons, intermediate link inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 45,000 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 43,336 tons, indicating restocking in the downstream and intermediate links and continuous destocking upstream [3]. - Recently, the price has dropped rapidly. In the short term, the market is continuously digesting the increase brought about by the suspension of production at Jianxiakeng. After the digestion is completed, the market may re - price the expectations regarding the mining license issue. The fundamentals in September are relatively good, but attention should be paid to September 30, as Jiangxi lithium mining projects need to complete report compilation and submission by this date, and there may be a conclusion regarding the mining license issues of other projects at that time [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes on September 2, 2025 [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory situation in the lithium carbonate market [3]. - Analysis of short - term price trends and attention points in September [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes of various products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain from September 1 to September 2, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, and other products [5]. - Price differences between different products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain, such as the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [17][19][20]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33][34]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025 [37][39]. 3.7 Production Costs - Chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [43].