1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy - chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, PVC, polyolefins, and methanol are all in an oscillatory state. The main influencing factors include geopolitical situations (such as the US - Venezuela relationship), supply - demand fundamentals, and cost factors [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rebounded slightly. WTI January contract closed up $0.21 to $56.15 per barrel, a 0.38% increase; Brent February contract closed up $0.14 to $59.82 per barrel, a 0.23% increase; SC2602 closed at 428.6 yuan per barrel, up 0.3 yuan per barrel, a 0.07% increase. The US - Venezuela situation affects exports, and the market will be quiet during the New Year holidays, with oil prices oscillating driven by news [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased. The market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, but high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profit decline may boost demand. Short - term prices may oscillate with oil prices [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract rose. Market concerns about raw material shortages in the long - term have increased, but current refinery raw materials are sufficient. Domestic demand shows a north - south divide, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term or be dragged down by oil prices [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and PX futures rose, and EG2605 also rose slightly. The start - up load of ethylene glycol increased. Prices follow the cost of crude oil, and ethylene glycol prices rebounded slightly due to factors such as coal price rebound and increased domestic maintenance [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber futures fell. China's rubber tire exports increased in the first 11 months of 2025, but the output in November decreased. Overseas raw material prices rebounded, and demand support is limited, with prices expected to oscillate widely [5][7]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted. Supply is expected to increase slightly, domestic demand will slow down, and prices tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices were under pressure, and production margins were negative. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices were stable. Domestic supply is in high - level oscillation, overseas supply from Iran may decline, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on December 19, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump claimed that Venezuela took "American" oil and land, and overseas institutions said that blocking oil tankers put 600,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil exports at risk. - According to JODI data, global oil demand increased significantly in October compared with September and the same period last year, mainly driven by the rebound in Indian demand [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][18][21][23][26][28][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [34][35][36][39][40][42][45][46]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [50][52][55][58][60][62][64]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, PP - LLDPE spreads, etc. [66][68][78]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of LLDPE and PP [75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their professional backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [80][81][82][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "volatile" [1] - The rating for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core View of the Report - The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower edge of the central range since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes and frequent sector rotations. The impact of policies on the market is expected to increase in the short term. The important meetings have a long - term positive impact on the stock index, but it will remain volatile in the short term. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, along with the upcoming Bank of Japan's interest - rate meeting, may affect the market. [1] - Treasury bond futures closed with some contracts rising. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital injection. The central economic work conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. In the short term, the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research View - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with the ChiNext Index falling by more than 2%. About 2900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rose, and the trading volume was 1.67 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%. The GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 is expected to remain unchanged. Policy efforts will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity". Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, perhaps with a slightly larger scale than this year. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp and restarted the balance - sheet expansion plan, but there are differences in the 2026 interest - rate cut expectations, and the US technology stocks oscillated. The Bank of Japan will hold an interest - rate meeting soon. [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose by 0.23%, 0.02%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 10 - year main contract remained stable. The central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 14 - day and 88.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on December 18, with 118.6 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase maturing, resulting in a net capital injection of 6.97 billion yuan. The DR001 and DR007 decreased. The monetary policy in 2026 will be moderately loose overall, but interest - rate cuts will be cautious. [1][2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH rose 7.8 points (0.26%), IF fell 27.8 points (- 0.61%), IC fell 173.2 points (- 2.42%), and IM fell 19.6 points (- 0.27%) [3] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index rose 6.8 points (0.23%), the CSI 300 Index fell 27.1 points (- 0.59%), the CSI 500 Index fell 37.0 points (- 0.52%), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 16.3 points (- 0.22%) [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.008 (0.01%), TF rose 0.01 (0.01%), T remained unchanged (0.00%), and TL rose 0.11 (0.10%) [3] Market News - **Overall Trend**: The market was oscillating and differentiated throughout the day. The ChiNext Index fell by more than 2%, about 2900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rose, and the trading volume was 1.67 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.17% [5] - **Industry Sectors**: AI healthcare, commercial spaceflight, retail, and IP economy sectors led the gains, while battery, lithium mine, Hainan, and PCB sectors led the losses [5] - **Popular Concepts**: AI healthcare concept stocks strengthened, with some stocks like Huaren Health and Saili Medical hitting the daily limit. Commercial spaceflight stocks soared, with companies such as Shengyang Technology and Tianjian Technology hitting the daily limit. Retail and IP economy consumer stocks rose, with Baida Group having six consecutive daily limits and Shanghai Jiubai hitting the daily limit. Some computing - power hardware stocks fell, with some stocks like Shengyi Technology and Jingwang Electronics falling by more than 5% [5] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][8][9][10][11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17][19] - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][24][26][28][29]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3084 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 3 元/吨，涨幅为 0.1%，持仓减少 1.04 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方 | | | | 坯价格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.95 万吨。据钢谷 | | | | 网数据，本周全国建材产量回升 4.17 万吨至 351.37 万吨，社库减少 28.76 万吨至 508.9 万吨，厂库减少 | | | | 10.67 万吨至 289.65 万吨，建材表需回落 1.16 万吨。建材产量小幅回升，库存维持较明显下降，表需小幅 | | | | 回落，数据表现基本符合预期。目前螺纹现实供需表现较强，多地出现规格断档的现象，对价格走势形成 | | | | 较强支撑。不过近期钢厂盈利逐步回升，市场预期 1 月份钢厂复产将会增多，随着 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish and volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Bullish operation [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices showed a volatile upward trend on Wednesday. The 01 contract closed at 1646 yuan/ton, up 1.29%, and the 05 contract closed at 1683 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The spot market was mostly stable, with prices in some regions fluctuating between -10 and +20 yuan/ton. The supply level of urea fluctuated slightly, with the daily output of the industry at 195,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The demand sentiment increased significantly, with the sales-to-production ratio in the mainstream regions rising to the range of 145% - 200%, and exceeding 300% in some regions. The short-term strengthening of market sentiment was boosted by India's new tender, but whether there will be new export quotas and policy relaxation in China remains to be verified. It is expected that the overall urea futures price will maintain a range-bound trend, with short-term sentiment being bullish. Attention should be paid to the spot trading atmosphere, Indian tender dynamics, and China's export policy dynamics [2]. - Soda ash futures prices showed a firm and volatile trend on Wednesday. The 01 contract closed at 1127 yuan/ton, down 0.27%, and the main 05 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton, up 0.78%. The spot market quotes were mostly stable, and the quotes in the trader segment fluctuated with the market sentiment. The supply level of soda ash was stable, with the industry's operating rate at 82.05% the previous day. Some regions reduced production loads, and there were still enterprises planning maintenance, so the supply of soda ash may fluctuate. The demand side was average, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices and mainly following up on rigid demand. The expectation of cold repair of glass production lines was strengthened, and the rigid demand for soda ash was also expected to decline further. The fundamentals of soda ash fluctuated slightly. The overall strengthening of related chemical and black series varieties in the futures market provided a linkage effect, and the market still had expectations for external factors such as macro, anti-involution, environmental protection, and real estate policies. It is expected that the short-term soda ash futures price will continue to rebound at a high level, but the current trend momentum is insufficient, and excessive chasing of gains is not recommended. Attention should be paid to the overall trend of the macro and commodity markets, changes in soda ash production capacity, changes in downstream production lines, and this week's inventory data [2]. - The glass futures price rebounded strongly on Wednesday, with the 05 contract rising more than 3%. The spot price was still weak, with the average price of the domestic float glass market at 1089 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. There were no obvious changes in the glass production lines recently, and the daily melting volume of the industry continued to remain at 155,000 tons. The cold repair plans of some production lines gradually became clear, and the market's concern about the continued decline in supply increased again. The overall strengthening of black and building materials varieties in the futures market also had a linkage effect on the glass futures price. In addition, the market still had expectations for external factors such as macro, anti-involution, environmental protection, and real estate policies, providing strong support for the bottom of the glass futures price. Currently, the demand for glass remained weak, with the sales-to-production ratios in the Shahe and Hubei regions both falling below 80%. Glass enterprises still had the intention to actively reduce inventory. Overall, driven by factors such as the macroeconomic recovery, the overall strengthening of commodities, and the expected decline in glass supply, the short-term trend of the futures market was bullish, but the sustainability of demand remained to be verified, and excessive chasing of gains was not recommended. Attention should be paid to the trend of the macro and commodity markets, changes in glass production lines, and spot trading conditions [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On December 17, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 11,202, a decrease of 12 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 271 [5]. - On December 17, the daily output of the urea industry was 195,000 tons, unchanged from the previous working day, and an increase of 159,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate was 80.62%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points compared with 79.24% in the same period last year [5]. - On December 17, the spot prices of small-grain urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1690 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 1710 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1670 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Jiangsu 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shanxi 1540 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [5]. - On December 17, the inventory of urea enterprises was 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.42% [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 17, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 4332, a decrease of 292 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 856. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 189, a decrease of 149 from the previous day [7]. - On December 17, the spot prices of soda ash were as follows: in North China, light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1350 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 930 yuan/ton [7]. - On December 17, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.05%, the same as the previous working day [8]. - On December 17, the average price of the float glass market was 1089 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The daily output of the industry was 155,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, as well as the price spreads between different contracts, and the price spreads between urea and methanol, and glass and soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][18][19]

生猪 周三，生猪近月 2603 合约领涨，远期合约报价跟涨，在猪病和政策去产能的双 向因素影响下，生猪期价企稳上行。黑龙江市场生猪主流成交价格 10.99 元/公斤， 较昨日价格上涨 0.02 元/公斤；吉林市场主流成交价格 11.01 元/公斤，较昨日价 格上涨 0.04 元/公斤；辽宁地区生猪出栏主流价格 11.14 元/公斤，较昨日价格上 涨 0.02 元/公斤；内蒙古市场主流成交价格为 11 元/公斤，较昨日价格上涨 0.06 元/公斤。现东北地区中大猪价格相对坚挺，今日中大猪价格低价 11.0 元/公斤， 高价 11.8 元/公斤，标肥价差小幅走缩。技术上，继续关注生猪 3 月合约上行表 现，远期在猪病和政策去库存的利多因素下，价格表现偏强。 震荡上涨 二、市场信息 1. 据船运调查机构 SGS 公布数据显示，预计马来西亚 12 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 435882 吨，较上月同 期出口的 334295 吨增加 30.39%。 2. 12 月 16 日国家粮食交易中心计划拍卖 51.39 万吨，生产年限为 2022 年至 2024 年，分布在辽宁、天津、 河北、安徽、浙江、山东、湖南，交货日 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，1 美联储理事沃勒 | | | 表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有 50 至 100 个基点的降息空间，但无需 | | | 急于行动，将以稳步、渐进方式把利率引向中性。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示， | | 铜 | 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面， | | | LME 铜库存增加 325 吨至 166925 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 2130 吨至 414575 吨；SHFE | | | 铜仓单下降 907 吨至 44877 吨；BC 铜下降 797 吨至 6180 吨。日央行会议召开在即，宏 | | | 观存在一定扰动，海外金融市场波动或抑制风险情绪，短线谨慎为上。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2573 元/吨，涨幅 0.9%，持仓减仓 4202 手至 | | | 17.6 万手。沪铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AL2602 收于 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On December 17, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 7.61% to 108,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 97,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 94,450 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 85,480 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 350 tons to 15,636 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased by 260 tons to 13,744 tons, the production from lithium mica decreased by 200 tons to 2,876 tons, the production from salt lakes decreased by 15 tons to 3,075 tons, and the production from recycled materials increased by 14 tons to 2,303 tons. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 384 tons to 18,313 tons, and the inventory decreased by 318 tons to 18,524 tons. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,336 tons to 94,144 tons, and the inventory decreased by 23 tons to 103,658 tons. The production of ternary materials in December is expected to decline by 7% month-on-month to 78,280 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% month-on-month to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 957 tons to 42,738 tons, other环节 inventory increasing by 430 tons to 49,570 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,606 tons to 19,161 tons [3]. - The cancellation of mining licenses is more of a follow-up to the issue of compliant lithium ore mining, not a contraction of lithium resource supply. Recently, the weekly social inventory has continued to decline, and the inventory turnover days decreased by 0.5 days week-on-week to 26.5 days. Due to recent overseas resource disturbances and the weakening expectation of the resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo Mine, the expected negative factors did not materialize as scheduled. In the future, if the resumption of lithium ore projects in Jiangxi is combined with seasonal off - peak factors, it may lead to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or even inventory accumulation, and the price may still have a callback probability. However, under the strong demand expectation, the downstream's willingness to stock up may also be relatively strong, and the overall price performance may be more likely to rise than to fall. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm, the decline in production scheduling, and whether the strong demand next year can be verified [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Futures and spot prices: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 7.61% to 108,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 97,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 94,450 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 85,480 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 350 tons to 15,636 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: Weekly supply increased, with different trends in production from various sources. December production is expected to increase. Weekly demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased, and December production is expected to decline. Weekly inventory decreased overall, with different changes in downstream, other环节, and upstream inventories [3]. - Market outlook: The cancellation of mining licenses is related to compliance, not supply contraction. Recent inventory decline and resource disturbances affected the market. Future price trends depend on project resumption, seasonal factors, and demand verification [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and lithium ore prices: The prices of futures contracts, lithium ore (such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone) increased on December 17, 2025, compared with December 16 [5]. - Lithium salt and other product prices: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and some other products increased, while the price of hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The prices of some ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also had different changes [5]. - Battery prices: The prices of some battery cells and batteries, such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells, increased slightly [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][16]. - Spreads: Charts display the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][20]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other环节 from April to December 2025 [37][39]. - Production costs: Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [42].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点评 17 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8470 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.56%，持仓 增仓 8547 手至 21.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9593 元/吨，较上一交易 日上调 13 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 380 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 61595 元/吨，日内涨幅 4.36%，持仓增仓 5450 手至 15.3 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳 在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水扩至 9295 元/吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏 拉的比较长，减产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。 当前成交集中在套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅自身缺乏涨势，短期受 多晶硅带涨。晶硅现货过剩和仓单短缺结构性矛盾下，日内厂家大幅提升 现货报价，与部分咨询网站延续持稳报价相悖。当前平台收储情绪发酵， 叠加仍未出现大量注册新仓单，近月多头情绪开始向全合约蔓延。期现逻 辑脱钩， ...

Group 1: Research Views - Cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may have more upside than downside in the long term. On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.57% to 63.46 cents per pound, CF601 fell 0.39% to 13,925 yuan per ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 17,680 lots to 731,300 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,715 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. The short - term consumption of cotton is okay, but there are doubts about its sustainability and pre - New Year restocking demand. The support comes from sentiment, policies, demand, and high outbound freight, while the pressure comes from high production, hedging pressure, and spinning operation sustainability [1]. - Sugar is in a weak and volatile state. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, a 27.69% increase from the previous year. Domestic spot prices continued to decline, and trading was average. The futures price is low, but market sentiment is still pessimistic. The medium - term futures view is bearish, but short - term short - selling at low levels should be avoided [1]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 5 with a 10 - point increase, the main basis is 1219 with a 34 - point increase. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,978 yuan per ton with a 10 - point increase, and the national spot price is 15,144 yuan per ton with a 14 - point increase [2]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 83 with a 3 - point increase, the main basis is 251 with a 16 - point decrease. The spot price in Nanning is 5320 yuan per ton with a 20 - point decrease, and in Liuzhou is 5390 yuan per ton with a 10 - point decrease [2]. Group 3: Market Information - On December 17, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3482, an increase of 283 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 3898 [3]. - On December 17, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,978 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,186 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,183 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,294 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On December 17, the comprehensive yarn load was 50.6, a 0.1 - point decrease from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 27.9, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 31.8, a 0.1 - point increase from the previous day [3]. - On December 17, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5320 yuan per ton, a 20 - point decrease from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 5390 yuan per ton, a 10 - point decrease from the previous day [3]. - On December 17, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 611, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1490 [4]. Group 4: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, participates in major projects, and has won many analyst awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass, and has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, etc., and has won relevant analyst titles [22]. Group 5: Company Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [25].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 8 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 768.0 | 761.0 | 7.0 | I05-I09 | 22.5 | 21.5 | 1.0 | | I09 | 745.5 | 739.5 | 6.0 | I09-I01 | -43.0 | -44.0 | 1.0 | | I01 | 788.5 | 783.5 | 5.0 | I01-I05 | 20.5 | 22.5 | -2.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2 ...