光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货煤化工商品日报 二、市场信息 尿素 1、郑商所数据：9 月 2 日尿素期货仓单 7205 张，较上一交易日无变化，有效预报 886 张。 2、隆众数据：9 月 2 日尿素行业日产 18.26 万吨，较上一工作日下降 0.11 万吨；较去年同期 减少 0.1 万吨；今日开工 78.05%，较去年同期 83.25%下降 5.20 个百分点。 3、9 月 2 日国内各地区小颗粒尿素现货价格（隆众；元/吨）：山东 1710，+10；河南 1720， 持平；河北 1720，-10；安徽 1720，-20；江苏 1720，+10；山西 1610，持平。 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格偏强震荡，主力 01 合约收盘价 1746 元/吨，涨幅 0.52%。现货市 场窄幅波动，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为 1710 元/吨、1720 元/吨，日环比分别 | | | | 涨 10 元/吨、持平。基本面来看，尿素供应阶段性低位波动，昨日行业日产量 18.26 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. The production of rebar has been rising, demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. Many steel mills are at the break - even point or in loss, leading to an increase in maintenance. [1] - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply has increased slightly, while demand has decreased, and inventory has declined. [1] - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate weakly with fluctuations in the short - term. Due to factors such as the military parade and weak steel market, supply is affected, and demand is weakening. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term. For manganese silicon, production is increasing, and cost support is weak; for ferrosilicon, production is at a high level, and demand and cost factors are complex. [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Rebar**: As of September 1, some steel mills in Tangshan carried out blast furnace maintenance, with an estimated daily impact on hot metal of about 122,300 tons. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume rebounded. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The i2601 contract closed at 771.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Port spot prices were strong. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore demand decreased, and inventory at ports and steel mills declined. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1112.5 yuan/ton on September 3, down 6 yuan/ton. Spot prices in the Mongolian coal market were mixed. Supply was tight in the short - term due to the military parade, and demand was weak due to high steel billet inventory and low steel prices. [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1596.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports were stable. Coking enterprise profits were good, but production was restricted, and demand was weakening due to the high - level inventory of steel billets and low steel prices. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded, with the main contract closing at 5744 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The market price was 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton. Production was increasing, and cost support was weak. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5528 yuan/ton, up 0.77%. The market price was about 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. Production was at a high level, and new steel tenders were ongoing with price cuts. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For rebar, the 10 - 1 spread was - 70.0 (up 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48.0 (up 2.0); for hot - rolled coil, the 10 - 1 spread was 12.0 (down 5.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 14.0 (down 3.0); for other varieties, the spreads also showed different changes. [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 193.0 (down 18.0), and the basis of the 01 - contract was 123.0 (down 12.0). [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions of each variety had different changes. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai was 3240.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0), and the price in Beijing was 3180.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0). [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Rebar's long - process profit was - 17.2 (down 17.2), short - process profit was 25.6 (up 48.4), and various spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore spread also changed. [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][8][9][10][11][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of various varieties from 2022 - 2026. [17][18][19][21][22][23][24] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of various varieties from 2001 - 2026. [26][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][40] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) from 2020 - 2025. [42][43][44][46] - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 - 2025. [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the field of black commodities research. [53][54]

Group 1: Research Views - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.74%, closing at 66.05 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.18% to 14,045 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 7,167 hands to 521,800 hands. The 3128B - grade cotton spot price index was about 15,200 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. The U.S. cotton price remained weakly volatile due to macro - level factors and limited fundamental drivers. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained a volatile trend. The 11 - contract is supported by tight old - cotton inventory, but the support will weaken as new cotton is listed. The 01 - contract has both long and short drivers, with strong support at the bottom based on seed - cotton purchase cost, and is expected to be in a firm and volatile state [2]. - For sugar, the International Sugar Organization predicts a supply deficit of only 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a significant difference from the revised 4.879 million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, and consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, up 771,000 tons. Domestic sugar prices are showing a downward trend, and the futures price may continue to seek support. Attention should be paid to imported sugar [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 50 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,367 yuan, down 87 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,324 yuan per ton, down 68 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,412 yuan per ton, down 67 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 38 yuan, up 3 yuan; the main - contract basis is 356 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning spot price is 5,900 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,955 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Group 3: Market Information - On September 2, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,131, down 189 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 2, the domestic cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,324 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,406 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,440 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,517 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 2, the comprehensive yarn load was 49.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 27, down 0.1; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 49.3, up 0.1; and the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 31.2, down 0.1 [4]. - On September 2, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,900 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,955 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 2, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 13,202, down 232 from the previous trading day, with 6 valid forecasts [5]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of cotton and sugar, such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][10][15][18] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy, and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile - category senior analyst title [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products on September 3, 2025, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and relevant influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment strategies for each variety [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn prices rose with reduced positions. The 9 - month contract is approaching delivery, and the 11 - month contract's positions continue to decline. The spot market expects an increase in supply before the new grain is listed, and prices are weak. In the Northeast, prices are mainly weak. New corn may be listed in Liaoning Heishan from September 5 - 10. Rain in North China affected corn, with some enterprise prices up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for new corn. Technically, the 11 - month contract had six consecutive positive days, with large price fluctuations. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view before the new grain is listed [2] - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell due to low demand expectations. US soybean meal followed, while US soybean oil rose. US soybean weekly export inspection was 47.2 tons, and the monthly crushing volume in July was 614 tons. The excellent - good rate was 65%. Domestically, soybean meal prices oscillated. Brazilian soybean premiums fell, and domestic inventories increased. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [2] - **Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose due to bargain - hunting and strong exports. Indian palm oil imports in August increased significantly. Domestically, oil prices rose, with palm oil performing the best. However, weak consumption and high inventories limited the increase. It is recommended to go long in the short - term [2] - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, the main 2510 egg contract oscillated at a low level and then rebounded. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some small increases. Seasonally, egg prices should rebound in late August, but supply pressure keeps prices weak. In the long - term, pay attention to old hen culling [2][3] - **Hogs**: On Tuesday, the main 2511 hog futures contract oscillated weakly and then rebounded. Spot prices were mostly stable, with regional differences. The supply in the north increased, and prices fell, while the south had price support. The market expects prices to oscillate, and attention should be paid to future demand and market sentiment [3] 3.2 Market Information - Ukraine will impose a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, then it will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [4] - Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 30.53% (SGS data) or 15.37% (AmSpec data) compared to the previous month, and production decreased by 2.65% [4] - Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% to 99.3 tons, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 35.5 tons [4] - As of September 1, Ukrainian farmers had sown 37.71 hectares of winter rapeseed, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated area [5] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads (1 - 5 spreads) and contract basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, with data sourced from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][8][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][25] 3.4 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher for eggs and hogs. They have rich experience and many honors [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily tracking of stock index futures data on September 2, 2025, including the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on the indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points differences and annualized costs of stock index futures roll - over [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On September 2, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to close at 3858.13 points, with a trading volume of 1222.778 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14% to close at 12553.84 points, with a trading volume of 1652.214 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 2.5% with a trading volume of 598.514 billion yuan, opening at 7498.44, closing at 7313.88, with a daily high of 7499.6 and a low of 7258.59 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 2.09% with a trading volume of 541.494 billion yuan, opening at 7108.94, closing at 6961.69, with a daily high of 7108.94 and a low of 6909.72 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.39% with a trading volume of 196.061 billion yuan, opening at 2983.72, closing at 2992.88, with a daily high of 3006.46 and a low of 2967.52 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.39% with a trading volume of 196.061 billion yuan, opening at 2983.72, closing at 2992.88, with a daily high of 3006.46 and a low of 2967.52 [1]. 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on the Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 187.27 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as communication, computer, and electronics significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 148.6 points from the previous closing price, and sectors such as computer and electronics significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index dropped 33.26 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as banks significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as computer, communication, and electronics pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 11.68 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as banks, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemicals significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as non - bank finance and electronics pulled it down [3]. 3.3 Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 79.56, IM01 had - 138.59, IM02 had - 271.34, and IM03 had - 446.93 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 74.3, IC01 had - 122.99, IC02 had - 224.75, and IC03 had - 369.83 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 10.05, IF01 had - 15.77, IF02 had - 30.9, and IF03 had - 51.13 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.65, IH01 had - 2.19, IH02 had - 1.79, and IH03 had - 0.25 [14]. 3.4 Points Differences and Annualized Costs of Stock Index Futures Roll - over - The document provides the 15 - minute average points differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts' roll - over, including data such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. for different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][25][27][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices fluctuated higher overnight. The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. LME copper inventory decreased by 100 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2932 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 699 tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" is a traditional consumption peak season in China, and refined copper consumption is expected to be boosted. However, the US recession expectation and high copper prices may limit the upside of prices [1]. - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a strong - fluctuating trend overnight. Alumina should be shorted on rallies, but chasing short positions is not recommended. Downstream sectors are stocking up quickly before the peak season, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations during the peak season. The aluminum industry profit continues to shift from upstream to downstream [1][2]. - LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined overnight. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory pressure may emerge, while the cost support is strengthening. Ternary demand in the new energy sector is gradually strengthening, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. First - grade nickel is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose. The US manufacturing index was in contraction, with new orders expanding for the first time this year. LME, Comex, and SHFE inventories changed. The "Golden September and Silver October" may boost refined copper consumption, but the US recession and high prices may limit the upside [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina复产 increased, and the surplus expectation was strengthened. Downstream stocking is fast, and electrolytic aluminum demand may exceed expectations. The industry profit is shifting downstream [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and Shanghai nickel declined. Inventory increased, and nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel inventory pressure may appear, and new energy demand is strengthening [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 245 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2374 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 699 tons. The active contract import profit increased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged. LME inventory decreased by 1525 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 982 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased. The inventory of LME decreased by 1450 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 991 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 275 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 390 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 504 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 275 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 2538 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.2%. LME inventory increased by 20 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 75 tons. The active contract import loss decreased by 28963 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: There are charts showing the spot premium of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: There are charts showing the spread between the first and second contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][21]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who are all experienced in non - ferrous metal research and have relevant qualifications and achievements [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are likely to rebound with volatility due to geopolitical factors and the expected stable production of OPEC+ in October [1][2] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are expected to be volatile, with their upward or downward trends depending on various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [1][2][4][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 10 - month contract rose by $1.58 to $65.59/barrel, a 2.47% increase; Brent 11 - month contract rose by $0.99 to $69.14/barrel, a 1.45% increase; SC2510 closed at 495.4 yuan/barrel, up 5.6 yuan/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Kazakhstan's August crude output increased by 2% compared to July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the OPEC+ meeting are influencing factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2510 rose 1.13% to 2852 yuan/ton, and LU2511 rose 2.54% to 3559 yuan/ton. The expected reduction of Western arbitrage goods and high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support prices, but demand lacks highlights [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2510 rose 1.17% to 3551 yuan/ton. In September, northern demand may drive up prices, but supply increases may limit the rise. Overall, supply - demand contradictions may ease [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 fell 0.34% to 4756 yuan/ton, EG2601 fell 1.99% to 4339 yuan/ton, and PX futures fell 0.47% to 6834 yuan/ton. PX fundamentals are weak, and TA prices may be supported. Ethylene glycol futures weakened due to inventory expectations [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2601 rose 10 yuan/ton to 15870 yuan/ton, NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12710 yuan/ton, and BR fell 75 yuan/ton to 11820 yuan/ton. July global natural rubber output slightly decreased. China's August heavy - truck sales were positive, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2235 yuan/ton. Due to profit improvement and the peak season, demand may pick up in September, and prices may enter a bottom - stage area [6] - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventories are shifting to downstream. With stable costs, prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Market prices in different regions showed different trends. Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports may decline. PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On August 30, Russia launched large - scale attacks on 14 regions in Ukraine, and Ukraine attacked Russian refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks have shut down at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][15][18][21][23][25][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over time, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35][38][41][42] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different commodities, like crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78]

Report Investment Rating - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bearish [1] Core Views - A-shares experienced a significant pullback on September 2nd, with the Wind All A index down 1.48% and a trading volume of 2.91 trillion yuan. Since August, the A-share market has shown a "narrowing circle" trend, and the short-term correction is normal due to factors such as profit-taking. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed meeting and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year will benefit A-shares. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the national childcare subsidy system are expected to stimulate inflation and drive the market. The liquidity-driven market is expected to continue with obvious structural characteristics and accelerated sector rotation [1]. - On September 2nd, treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts down 0.18%, 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 255.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion yuan. In August, the bond market was suppressed by the strong performance of the equity market, and the yield curve steepened. After continuous declines in August, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place. However, the strong performance of the equity market is negative for long-term bonds, while short-term bonds are relatively stable [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market had a significant pullback on September 2nd, with different indices showing varying degrees of decline. Since August, the market has shown a "narrowing circle" trend, and the short-term correction is normal. In the long run, factors such as the Fed's dovish stance, policy adjustments in the housing market, and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system are expected to benefit A-shares. The liquidity-driven market will continue with obvious structural characteristics [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 2nd, treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations led to a net withdrawal of funds. In August, the bond market was affected by the strong performance of the equity market, and the yield curve steepened. After the adjustment, the bond market is basically in place, but the strong equity market is negative for long-term bonds, while short-term bonds are relatively stable [1][2]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 2nd, compared with September 1st, IH rose 0.44%, IF fell 0.65%, IC fell 1.69%, and IM fell 1.75%. Among the stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 0.39%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.74%, the CSI 500 index fell 2.09%, and the CSI 1000 index fell 2.50% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 2nd, compared with September 1st, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.02%, T fell 0.04%, and TL fell 0.20%. Among the treasury bond yields, the 2-year yield rose 0.62, the 5-year yield fell 0.18, the 10-year yield rose 0.01, and the 30-year yield fell 0.8 [3]. 3. Market News - On September 2nd, the central bank announced the liquidity injection situation in August. The medium-term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 300 billion yuan, the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase in the open market had a net injection of 300 billion yuan, with no open market treasury bond transactions [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts [6][7][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends, yield trends, basis trends, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures contracts, as well as the trends of funding rates [13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report shows the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][23][25][26].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格窄幅震荡，主力 01 合约收盘价 1743 元/吨，微幅下跌 0.4%。现货 市场多数稳定，少部分地区价格下调 10~20 元/吨。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分 | | | | 别为 1700 元/吨、1720 元/吨，日环比分别跌 20 元/吨、持平。基本面来看，尿素供 | | | | 应阶段性低位波动，昨日行业日产量 18.37 万吨，日环比增 0.05 万吨。需求表现依旧 | | | 尿素 | 呈现区域分化特征，部分地区产销率高达 150%~190%，另有部分地区产销 10%~20% | 偏强震荡 | | | 附近。整体来看，当前国内尿素市场情绪趋于谨慎，市场多等待印标及中国参与情况 | | | | 等结果出炉，此方面消息近期扰动也将更加频繁。预计短期尿素期货价格震荡整理运 | | | | 行，后续跟随印标结果等变化波动幅度仍将再度提升，关注尿素日产变化、出口动态 | | | | 及政策、现货成交情况。 | | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.14% to 66.53 cents per pound, and CF601 dropped 1.65% to 14,029 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 14,025 lots to 528,900 lots. The spot price index of grade 3128B cotton was about 15,175 yuan per ton, down 205 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, more attention should be paid to macro and weather changes. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high. As of the week ending August 26, the area affected by D1 - D4 level drought was 30%, up from 5% two weeks ago. According to NOAA forecasts, the drought in the main U.S. cotton - growing areas will continue. Currently, there are no obvious contradictions in the ON - CALL weekly report and non - commercial fund positions of U.S. cotton, and the willingness of funds to intervene is not strong. Domestically, there are many market news, but they are all short - term disturbances before substantial implementation. After a significant increase and then a significant decrease in positions in Zhengzhou cotton, the main concerns are the relatively warm macro - level sentiment and the country's obvious long - term intention to stimulate and promote consumption. The short - term fundamentals are relatively tight, and the supply will increase after the new cotton is listed, but the overall supply - demand contradiction in the new year is not significant. Overall, even though the 01 contract faces the pressure of a bumper harvest and large - scale listing of new cotton, it is expected to be relatively firm, and the 11 contract is expected to be weaker than the 01 contract [2]. - **Sugar**: In the first half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 47.63 million tons, an increase of 3.596 million tons or 8.17% year - on - year. The ATR of sugarcane was 144.83 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.34 kg/ton compared with the same period last year. The sugar - making ratio was 55%, an increase of 5.85 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Ethanol production was 2.193 billion liters, a decrease of 121 million liters or 5.21% year - on - year. Sugar production was 3.615 million tons, an increase of 497,000 tons or 15.96% year - on - year. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making group was 5,860 - 5,970 yuan per ton, with an individual reduction of 20 yuan per ton; the price of Yunnan sugar - making group was 5,730 - 5,780 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price range of processing sugar factories was 5,970 - 6,450 yuan per ton, with some reductions of 20 - 50 yuan per ton. The sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil reached a new high again. The futures price has been oscillating around 5,600 yuan per ton for 4 trading days, lacking a driving force, and should be treated with an oscillating mindset. Attention should be paid to the sales data of each province and import data in August [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 60, up 20; the main contract basis was 1454, up 366. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,392 yuan per ton, up 149, and the national spot price was 15,479 yuan per ton, up 151 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, down 5; the main contract basis was 356, down 5. The spot price in Nanning was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 50, and the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,965 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On September 1, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,320, down 194 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0. The arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were 15,392 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,454 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,510 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,639 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 50, up 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 27.1, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 49.2, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 31.3, down 0.3 from the previous day [4]. - **Sugar**: On September 1, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,965 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 13,434, down 482 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 7 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of the main contracts, but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [7][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many industry - related honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won the title of senior analyst in textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [22].