1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-06-26 一、指数走势 06 月 25 日，上证综指涨跌幅 1.04%，收于 3455.97 点，成交额 6201.73 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 1.72%，收于 10393.72 点，成交额 9825.67 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅 1.32%，成交额 3349.98 亿元，其中开盘价 6196.15，收盘价 6276.16，当日最高价 6282.11，最低价 6194.15； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 1.68%，成交额 2392.6 亿元，其中开盘价 5777.74，收盘价 5862.55，当日最高价 5866.52，最低价 5776.12； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 1.44%，成交额 3617.27 亿元，其中开盘价 3907.07，收盘价 3960.07，当日最高价 3963.04，最低价 3902.18； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 1.17%，成交额 1023.26 亿元，其中开盘价 2714.63，收盘价 2747.73，当日最高价 2750.39，最低价 2707.4。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 一、研究观点 品种 点评 观点 尿素 周三尿素期货主力合约上涨 2.47%至 1740 元/吨。现货市场主流地区同步反弹 10～30 元/吨，山东、河南地区市场价格分别上涨至 1760 元/吨、1770 元/吨。基本面来看， 昨日尿素日产量 19.56 万吨，日环比降 0.39 万吨。需求跟进情绪转为积极，昨日主流 地区现货产销率多数维持 100%以上，个别地区 70%-80%。期现市场同步反弹受到第 二批出口配额相关消息提振，再叠加近期印度招标、港口检验渠道等，消息面对市场 情绪影响较大，预计短期尿素期货市场继续偏强运行，持续性仍需观察后续是否具有 更多利好因素驱动。继续关注出口政策动态、印标动态、国内日产及现货成交情况。 看涨 纯碱 周三纯碱期货价格震荡偏强，现货市场弱势下行，部分主流地区报价下调 20～50 元 /吨。贸易环节价格跟随盘面情绪小幅回暖，昨日沙河及其周边地区重碱自提贸易价 格 1205 元/吨，日环比涨 8 元 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心小幅反弹，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.55 美元至 | | | | 64.92 美元/桶，涨幅 0.85%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.54 美元 | | | | 至 67.68 美元/桶，涨幅 0.80%。SC2508 以 504.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 3.9 元/桶，跌幅为 0.77%。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 6 月 20 | | | | 日当周，美国商业原油库存减少 580 万桶至 4.151 亿桶，此前市 | | | | 场预期为减少 80 万桶。SPR 增加 20 万桶至 4.025 亿桶。俄克拉 | | | | 荷马州交割地库欣仓库的原油库存下滑 46.4 万桶。美国汽油库存 | | | | 减少 210 万桶至 2.279 亿桶，美国包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库 | | | 原油 | 存减少 410 万桶至 1.053 亿桶。成品油库存去化整体高于预期。 | 震荡 | | | ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 国内基本面来看，5 月 PPI 同比-3.3%，较 4 月环比下滑；新增人民币贷款 | 震荡 | | | 6200 亿元人民币，比上年同期少增 3300 亿元。化债背景下信用收缩、需求 | | | | 不足仍是当前主要矛盾，指数很难突破中枢大幅上涨。另一方面，2025 年上 | | | | 半年企业盈利情况较 2024 年有明显改善，在配置型资金托底的背景下，A 股 | | | | 指数短期同样不会出现大幅下跌的走势。预期未来指数仍以震荡为主。 | | | | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.22%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%，2 年 | | | | 期主力合约涨 0.01%，5 年期主力合约基本持稳。中国央行开展 3653 亿元 7 | | | | 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.4%。公开市场有 1563 亿元逆回购到期，净 | | | | 投放 2090 亿元。2025 年 6 月 25 日中国人民银行将以固定 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2977 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 15 元/吨，跌幅 0.6%，持仓增加 1.09 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3070 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.32 | | | | 万吨。近日北方高温南方降雨影响需求，螺纹需求整体处于低位。不过钢厂在转产其他品种以及钢坯出口 | | | | 加大的情况下，螺纹产量也处于低位。现阶段市场供需呈现双弱格局，预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格窄幅震荡运行，收于 703 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下 | 震荡 | | | 跌 3 元/吨，跌幅为 0.4%，成交 29 万手，减仓 0.4 万手。港口现货价格有所下跌， ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二，玉米 | | 7 月合约多空主力明显减持，多头主力移仓有限，获利了结加剧行情 价格下调 | | | 波动。周初，东北玉米价格上涨 | | 10-30 元/吨，深加工企业多数也上调收购价格， | | | 留粮意向也较为明显。产区敞口库存有限，贸易商心态较好。华北地区玉米主流 | | | | | 价格维持稳定。山东深加工企业门前到货量车辆增加，经过上周价格的上涨，除 | | | | | 了部分本地贸易商开始出货外，部分地区东北货源继续补充华北市场，少数企业 | | | | | 玉米 | | 6-10 元/吨，但主流价格保持稳定。河南、河北地区深加工窄幅上调。 | 上涨 | | 销区市场玉米价格整体稳定，部分地区窄幅上调。周末安徽省启动小麦最低保护 | | | | | 价，产区贸易商挺价心态增加，但高价下游接受度一般，执行前期订单为主，销 | | | | | 区成交价格逐步贴近报价，议价空间缩小。技术上，玉米 | | 7 月持仓向 9 月转移的 | | | ...

1. Index Trends - On June 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.15% to close at 3420.57 points with a trading volume of 544.882 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.68% to close at 10217.63 points with a trading volume of 869.7 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% with a trading volume of 303.658 billion yuan, opening at 6082.74, closing at 6194.67, with a daily high of 6194.67 and a low of 6082.74 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.62% with a trading volume of 191.935 billion yuan, opening at 5683.46, closing at 5765.84, with a daily high of 5766.02 and a low of 5683.46 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.16% with a trading volume of 89.075 billion yuan, opening at 2685.85, closing at 2715.92, with a daily high of 2731.18 and a low of 2685.85 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.16% with a trading volume of 89.075 billion yuan, opening at 2685.85, closing at 2715.92, with a daily high of 2731.18 and a low of 2685.85 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 116.45 points from the previous close, with sectors such as power equipment, electronics, and computer significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 91.67 points from the previous close, with electronics, power equipment, and non - banking finance sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.13 points from the previous close, with non - banking finance, power equipment, and electronics sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 31.14 points from the previous close, with non - banking finance, banks, and electronics sectors significantly contributing to the upward movement [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 55.17, IM01 of - 123.04, IM02 of - 195.3, and IM03 of - 370.85 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.93, IC01 of - 80.85, IC02 of - 127.08, and IC03 of - 244.07 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 29.83, IF01 of - 43.83, IF02 of - 50.93, and IF03 of - 81.08 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 31.25, IH01 of - 33.89, IH02 of - 32.68, and IH03 of - 32.81 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [21]. - For IC contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23]. - For IF contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [23]. - For IH contracts, various roll - over point differences and their corresponding annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2509 contract rose 3.06% to 60,700 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 58,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 200 yuan/ton to 58,570 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4,404 tons to 22,375 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly lithium carbonate output increased month - on - month, with a more than 9% increase in June. On the demand side, the weekly inventory turnover days increased, especially for lithium iron phosphate. In June, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials decreased by 10% month - on - month. On the inventory side, the total social inventory continued to increase, and the total inventory turnover days of lithium carbonate rose to about 2 months. Meanwhile, the lithium ore inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Since June is the earnings report disclosure season, the overseas shipment volume also increased. Currently, the overall inventory level of lithium ore + lithium salt reaches about 3.5 months, indicating significant inventory pressure [3]. - The current price level is basically at a stage bottom. From the perspective of the lithium ore price of 600 - 610 US dollars, there is still short - term support. However, there has been no inflection point in the fundamentals, and market sentiment remains bearish. Due to yesterday's market news disturbances, the futures price strengthened rapidly. In the short term, it is still necessary to be vigilant about the position of the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, spot, and warehouse receipts are presented, along with the supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate. The current price is at a stage bottom, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term risks exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from June 23 to June 24, 2025, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products. For example, the main contract closing price of futures rose from 59,120 yuan/ton to 60,700 yuan/ton, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium ore products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium aluminum phosphate stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium and lithium salt products such as metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads of different lithium products, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. - **Precursors & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursors and ternary materials from 2024 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium battery products such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells from 2024 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [35][36]. - **Production Costs**: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.55%，报收 67.78 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.96%，报收 13610 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 26586 手至 54.19 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14767 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 13 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14883 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 11 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍是市场关注重点，伊朗与以色列停 | | | | 火，原油价格大幅下挫，通胀预期降温，但鲍威尔证词表示并不急于降息。美元指 | 震荡略 | | | 数震荡走弱，美棉价格重心小幅上移。国内市场方面，郑棉期价重心环比上移。国 | | | | 新办昨日召开发布会，宣布 9 月 3 日北京天安门广场将举行大阅兵。央行等六部 | 偏强 | | | 门联合印发《关于促进金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》。市场情绪升温，带 | | | | 动棉价走强。基本面来看 ...