Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.02% to 66.22 cents per pound, CF601 decreased 0.11% to 14,010 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 5,814 lots to 518,700 lots. The cotton market price in Xinjiang was about 15,350 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day, and the national average price was 15,443 yuan per ton, up 56 yuan. Internationally, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the U.S. cotton futures price fluctuates at a low level. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuates narrowly around 14,000 yuan per ton. The new cotton in Shandong's Heze area has an earlier picking time this year. Considering the acquisition cost, the current 01 contract lacks a clear directional drive and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For sugar, as of August 31, 2025, Yunnan Province's cumulative sugar sales reached 2.0823 million tons, with a sales rate of 86.09%. In August, 130,900 tons were sold. The industrial inventory was 336,400 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in various regions were lowered. Affected by the expected high yield in the Northern Hemisphere, the raw sugar futures price continued to decline. Domestically, the spot price continued to fall, and the futures price continued the downward trend. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and future import data and new sugar pre - sales should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 60, up 20; the main - contract basis was 1,433, up 36. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,350, up 50, and the national spot price was 15,443, up 56 [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 22, down 8; the main - contract basis was 412, up 19. The Nanning spot price was 5,880, down 20, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,945, down 10 [3]. 2. Market Information - On September 4, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 5,829, down 167 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts. The cotton market prices in different domestic regions were: 15,350 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,450 in Henan, 15,500 in Shandong, and 15,600 in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 4, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.8, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27, down 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.2, unchanged [4]. - On September 4, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5,880 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 4, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 12,752, down 30 from the previous trading day, with 6 valid forecasts [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][10][11][12][13][15][16][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of various agricultural products is mainly "oscillating." For corn, the 11 - month contract is expected to oscillate, with short - term operations focusing on whether the 2200 - yuan mark can be effectively broken through. For soybeans and related products, they are also in an oscillating state, and short - term participation is recommended. For palm oil and other oils, prices are oscillating due to factors such as high inventory and low consumption. For eggs, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to the change in production capacity. For pigs, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: In the futures market, the 11 - month contract adjusted with position reduction this week, and the 9 - month contract rebounded due to the delayed listing of Liaoxi corn. In the spot market, before the new grain is listed, the supply is expected to increase, and the corn price shows a weak performance. Technically, the 11 - month contract encountered resistance at the 2200 - yuan mark and ended six consecutive positive days. Short - term operations should focus on whether the 2200 - yuan mark can be effectively broken through [2] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rebounded from a three - week low on Thursday. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to oscillate, with funds leaving the market and low trading volume. Oil mills have high inventories, and downstream feed enterprises have sufficient positions until the end of the month, with low purchasing willingness [2] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil oscillated narrowly on Thursday and rose on a weekly basis. An investigation shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August increased for the sixth consecutive month. In the domestic market, oil prices are oscillating and adjusting due to factors such as low consumption, high inventory, and large supply pressure [2] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price showed insufficient rebound strength after a low - level rebound at the beginning of the week. In the spot market, the terminal digestion improved near the weekend, and most egg prices in the sales areas rose. In the long - term, pay attention to the change in the number of old hens being culled and later replenishment [2][3] - **Pigs**: The main 2511 contract of live pig futures fell on Thursday. In the spot market, the average daily price of live pigs in China decreased. Affected by supply - side pressure, the pig price is weak, and the futures price may continue to be weak in the short - term [3] Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed a fall inspection of the crop seed market nationwide, focusing on key crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and vegetables, and will send 5 working groups to key seed - using areas for supervision [4] - The bid - winning rate of CGC's rapeseed oil and sunflower oil procurement on September 4 was 100% [4] - According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with an estimated total output of 1.85 million tons [5] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for multiple varieties including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [7][8][12][16] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for multiple varieties including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [15][18][19][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices showed a weak oscillation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,714 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.32%. The spot market was weak, with prices in mainstream regions dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Supply was at a phased low, and demand was insufficient. Exports continued, and the market would fluctuate with Indian tender news. Futures prices were expected to continue wide - range oscillations [1]. - Soda ash futures prices were firm and oscillating on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,277 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Spot market quotes were mostly stable. This week, production increased by 4.55%, enterprise inventory decreased by 2.55%, but social inventory rose. Demand was weak and stable. Futures prices were expected to oscillate widely in the short term [1]. - Glass futures prices oscillated weakly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,139 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.09%. The spot market was stable. Supply was stable, and demand showed no obvious change. Inventory increased slightly by 0.77%. The market was expected to continue bottom - consolidation [1]. Market Information Urea - On September 4, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 7,928, an increase of 723 from the previous trading day, with 778 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 4, the daily urea production was 182,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous day and 1,000 tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 77.79%, a decrease of 5.18 percentage points from 82.97% last year [4]. - On September 4, small - particle urea spot prices in various regions in China: Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hebei was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Anhui was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Shanxi was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - On September 3, urea enterprise inventory was 1.095 million tons, an increase of 9,200 tons or 0.85% from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 4, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 4,934, a decrease of 298 from the previous trading day, with 1,268 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,132, an increase of 106 from the previous trading day [7]. - On September 4, soda ash spot prices in different regions varied. For example, in North China, light soda ash was 1,220 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - As of September 4, the weekly soda ash production was 751,700 tons, an increase of 32,700 tons or 4.55%. The capacity utilization rate was 86.22%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points [7]. - As of September 4, domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory was 1.8221 million tons, a decrease of 45,400 tons or 2.43% week - on - week [7]. - On September 4, the average price of the float glass market was 1,156 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The daily production was 159,600 tons, also unchanged [7]. - As of September 4, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, an increase of 484,000 weight cases or 0.77% week - on - week, and a decrease of 11.77% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.9 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as urea and soda ash base differences, trading volume and open interest of main contracts, price trends of main contracts, spreads between different contracts, and spot price trends [9][11][15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Contract Spreads - I05 closed at 767.5 yuan/ton, up 13.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 831.0 yuan/ton, up 18.0 yuan; I01 closed at 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan [3] - The spread of I05 - I09 was -63.5 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan; I09 - I01 was 39.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan; I01 - I05 was 24.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3] Group 3: Basis 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of various iron ore varieties changed. For example, the basis of Carajás fines was 62 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; BRBF was 45 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; Newman fines was 27 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [6] 3.2 Basis Chart - There are charts showing the basis of different iron ore types such as Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores [8][9][10] Group 4: Exchange Rule Changes - Since December 2, the main iron ore contract has been I2205. Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Iron Concentrate) were added with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11] - Brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others are 0 [11] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes were modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [11] - Four more deliverable brands (Taigang Iron Concentrate, Magang Iron Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, SP10 Fines) were added with brand premiums of 0, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [11] Group 5: Variety Spreads 5.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread of PB lump - PB fines was 142.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; PB fines - mixed fines was 60.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan; etc. [13] 5.2 Variety Spread Charts - There are multiple charts showing different variety spreads such as lump - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, medium - low grade powder spreads, etc. [14][16][18][21][22] Group 6: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 4th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.12%. The position decreased by 2,437 lots to 277,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,369 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 product回调 to 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 40 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.55%. The position decreased by 3,260 lots to 146,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened to 3,410 yuan/ton. The resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon and the increase in crystalline silicon production have become marginal drivers, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. After the previous anti-involution news was fully priced in, the trading center of polysilicon has gradually shifted to fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of the terminal power station's rate of return, the acceptance of price increases in the component sector has reached its peak, and the silicon material market has cooled down following the downstream market sentiment. Before the introduction of specific policy measures, the market is still in a game between policy support and fundamental drag. Polysilicon has entered a range mode with obvious top and bottom levels, and policy dynamics have a phased disturbance effect on the market. Attention should be paid to the results of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's energy-saving special inspection on September 30th and the inventory clearance situation in the industrial chain. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Research View - On September 4th, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main factors affecting the market include the resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon, the increase in crystalline silicon production, the limitation of the terminal power station's rate of return, and the cooling of the downstream market sentiment. The market is currently in a game between policy support and fundamental drag, and policy dynamics have a phased disturbance effect on the market. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,505 yuan/ton. The price of the near-month contract increased by 75 yuan/ton to 8,560 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged, except for the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Tianjin Port, which decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 276 to 50,072, and the total social inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 442,900 tons. [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 52,195 yuan/ton, and the price of the near-month contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 52,410 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3,410 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,870, and the total social inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons. [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of most organic silicon products remained unchanged, except for the price of dimethyl silicone oil, which increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton. [3] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, the price differences between grades, the regional price differences, the electricity prices, the silicon stone prices, and the refined coal prices. [4][6][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [13][16][18] - **Inventory**: The charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, industrial silicon weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory. [22][23][25] - **Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost levels and average profit levels of the main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon. [28][30][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price is oscillating due to factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ production decisions, and market expectations [1] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are also expected to oscillate, with their trends depending on various factors including cost, supply, demand, and market sentiment [2][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fell. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US commercial crude and SPR inventories, a decrease in gasoline inventory, and an increase in distillate inventory. US domestic crude production and refinery processing volume decreased. OPEC+ meeting agenda is yet to be set, and some members may increase production. The oil price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the fuel oil futures prices fell. The Chinese refinery operating rate increased. The inflow of low-sulfur fuel oil from the West is expected to decrease, and the high-sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may also decline. However, the overall demand for high and low sulfur fuel oil remains weak. The prices of FU and LU have some upward momentum but depend on the oil price [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the asphalt futures price fell. The domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt decreased. In September, the demand in the north may increase, but the supply in North and Northeast China may limit the price increase. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise further [2] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, the TA futures price fell, and the EG futures price rose. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume increases. The terminal demand is weak, and the demand in the peak season is under test. The EG spot liquidity is tight, but the inventory may increase in the future [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the RU and NR futures prices rose, and the BR futures price fell. The weather in the producing areas may be affected by La Nina. The raw material prices fluctuate slightly, and the demand is stable domestically and weak externally. The heavy truck sales are good, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the methanol spot price is stable. The MTO device may resume production due to improved profits, and the demand in September is expected to pick up. The supply increment is limited, and the price is expected to enter a bottom area [5] - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the polyolefin prices are stable. In September, the supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the downstream. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5] - **PVC**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices are adjusted. The real estate construction is weak, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The export is expected to decline due to the anti-dumping tax. The PVC price in September is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on September 4th and 5th, 2025 [7] Market News - The EIA inventory report shows the changes in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, as well as domestic production and refinery processing volume [9] - OPEC's oil production in August may increase, mainly due to the output growth of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ is accelerating the relaxation of production cuts, while some members are required to make additional cuts [9] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [23][25][29][31][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [37][39][42][45][48][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [54][59] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the cash flow and production profit trends of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [62][64] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [67][68][69][70]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-05 一、指数走势 09 月 04 日，上证综指涨跌幅-1.25%，收于 3765.88 点，成交额 11078.92 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-2.83%，收于 12118.7 点，成交额 14363.65 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-2.3%，成交额 4885.95 亿元，其中开盘价 7214.72，收盘价 7041.15，当日最高价 7255.0，最低价 6939.66； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-2.48%，成交额 4719.91 亿元，其中开盘价 6884.36，收盘价 6698.45，当日最高价 6906.69，最低价 6607.98； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-2.12%，成交额 7731.25 亿元，其中开盘价 4461.25，收盘价 4365.21，当日最高价 4465.5，最低价 4327.51； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-1.71%，成交额 2080.35 亿元，其中开盘价 2949.97，收盘价 2910.47，当日最高价 2949.97，最低价 2879.41。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term correction of the A - share market is normal due to factors such as the liquidation of previous profit - taking positions. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed meeting and the expected multiple interest rate cuts within the year will benefit the A - share market. Policy adjustments in the real estate sector and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system will also have a positive impact on the market. The liquidity market is expected to continue, showing obvious structural characteristics and accelerated sector rotation [1]. - After the continuous decline in August, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place. However, the continuous strengthening of the equity market under the anti - involution expectation is negative for long - term bonds. Short - term bonds are relatively stable under the expectation of sufficient liquidity, with short - term bonds expected to remain stable and long - term bonds to have greater fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Stock Index Futures - On September 4, the A - share market continued to correct, with the Wind All - A index down 2.02% and a trading volume of 2.58 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. Since August, the A - share market has shown a "narrowing" trend, with high trading congestion in some themes. The Fed's dovish stance and expected interest rate cuts, real estate policy adjustments, and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are all positive factors for the A - share market [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year Treasury bond futures contracts rose, while the 2 - year contract fell. The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan. In August, the bond market sentiment was suppressed, and the yield curve steepened. Currently, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place, but long - term bonds face pressure from the strong equity market [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On September 4, compared with September 3, IH fell 1.67%, IF fell 1.82%, IC fell 2.09%, and IM fell 1.95%. Among the stock indices, the SSE 50 fell 1.71%, the SSE 300 fell 2.12%, the CSI 500 fell 2.48%, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.30% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - On September 4, compared with September 3, TS fell 0.02%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.09%, and TL rose 0.15% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 to 2026", aiming to promote "using domestic products", strengthen policy support for key enterprises in the industrial chain, and improve the resilience and security of the industrial chain [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, showing their price trends and basis changes from January 2024 to July 2025 [6][9][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of Treasury bond futures contracts, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [14][16][18]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates from 2023 to 2025 [21][22][27].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.27%，报收 66.23 美分/磅，CF601 环比下降 0.71%，报收 13990 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比上涨 2765 手至 52.45 万手，新疆地区棉花市场价约 15300 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下跌 100 元/吨，全国棉花市场均价 15387 元/吨，较前一日下降 | | | | 72 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍需持续关注，美元指数坚挺，美棉价格 | | | | 重心略有下移，短期基本面驱动有限，关注后续降息预期与天气变化。国内市场方 | | | | 面，昨日郑棉期价重心环比小幅下移，仍在 14000 元/吨关口上下震荡，近期宏观 | | | | 层面仍有扰动，关注上证调增幅度。基本面角度来看，旧棉库存相对偏紧，但新棉 | | | | 即将上市，9 月末库存最低位也不会出现缺口，11 合约缺乏上行驱动。01 合约对 | | | | 应新棉，多空均有驱动，丰产预期 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn futures showed an adjustment performance on Wednesday, with the November contract encountering resistance and falling back. The spot market's supply is expected to increase before the new grain is on the market, and the corn price is showing a weak performance. The futures market has rebounded recently, which has a certain positive impact on market sentiment. Technically, the November contract of corn encountered resistance and fell back at the 2200 yuan integer mark on Wednesday, and the futures price returned to a volatile performance [2]. - CBOT soybeans fell to a two - week low on Wednesday due to concerns about the demand prospects of US soybeans. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to fluctuate, with a small increase. The strategy is to participate in the short - term [2]. - BMD palm oil fell on Wednesday, dragged down by the trends of competing vegetable oils and crude oil. The domestic oil prices oscillated and adjusted, with palm oil rising and then falling. The strategy is to participate in the short - term [2]. - The main contract of eggs on Wednesday continued to rebound, and the spot price was mostly stable with a few small increases. The egg price is expected to have a seasonal rebound according to the normal seasonal pattern, but it is affected by the supply - side pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the change in the number of old hens being culled. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3]. - The main contract of live pigs on Wednesday oscillated and adjusted. The fundamentals and market sentiment have not changed much compared with the previous period, and the live pig price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to whether the future demand and market sentiment can boost the market [3]. Group 3: Market Information - On September 5, 2025, Sinograin's e - commerce platform will organize a special session for the competitive sale of domestic soybeans, with 45,299 tons of domestic soybeans for sale [4]. - On September 5, Sinograin's e - commerce trading center will organize a two - way competitive trading session for sunflower oil, with 3,450 tons of grade - three sunflower oil for trading [4]. - A research institution predicts that Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season will increase to 5.9 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous forecast, due to good weather conditions [4]. - Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month to 355,000 tons, hitting the lowest level in six months [5]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 1 - 5 spread, soybeans 1 - 5 spread, soybean meal 1 - 5 spread, soybean oil 1 - 5 spread, palm oil 1 - 5 spread, egg 1 - 5 spread, and live pig 1 - 5 spread [6][7][8][12][16]. 4.2 Contract Basis - The report shows contract basis including corn basis, corn starch basis, soybean basis, soybean meal basis, soybean oil basis, palm oil basis, egg basis, and live pig basis [14][15][18][19][22]. Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and rich experience. Her futures qualification number is F0243534, and her trading consultation number is Z0001262 [27]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many honors. Her futures qualification number is F3048706, and her trading consultation number is Z0013637 [27]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures qualification number is F3032578, and her trading consultation number is Z0013544 [27].