光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价震荡运行，其中WTI 8月合约收盘下跌0.41美元至65.11 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.63%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.16 美元至 67.61 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.24%。SC2508 以 497.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.5 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.30%。四位 OPEC+代表透露该联盟计划 8 月增产 | | | | 41.1 万桶/日，此前 5 月、6 月和 7 月已实施同等规模的增产。 | | | | OPEC+将于 7 月 6 日召开会议，这将是该组织自 4 月开始逐步退 | | | | 出减产以来的第五次月度增产。市场再度计价欧佩克增产预期， | | | 原油 | 但整体仍较为温和。油价已回落至 6 月 13 日以色列首次袭击伊朗 | 震荡 | | | 之前的水平附近，市场焦点重新转向供需平衡。除了 OPEC+可能 | | | | 增产，这可能会加剧今年晚些时候供过于求 ...

2025 年下半年硅 策略报告 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：新疆产能继续释放，内蒙及甘肃新增产能填补了西南减产缺口，结构性过剩矛盾突出。据百川，上半年国内工业硅总产量达 | | | 185.6万吨，环比增长21.5%，同比下滑14.9%；主产地占比为新疆53.2%、内蒙12.3%、甘肃10.4%、云南5 %、四川4.5%；上半年开炉量下 | | | 滑53台至215台，开炉率下滑8.3%至27.2%。 | | | 2、需求：光伏抢装带领晶硅需求集中前置，但降库存导致向上传导不佳，有机硅抢出口成为主增量。上半年国内工业硅消费测算量92.9 | | | 万吨，同比下滑34.9%。其中DMC产量102.4万吨，同比增长27.4%，测算工业硅用量约53.2万吨；多晶硅产量57.5万吨，同比下滑45.3%， | | | 测算工业硅用量约74.7万吨；1-5月铝合金产量740.5万吨，同比增长16.7%，预计上半年铝合金产量88 ...

光期研究 见微知著 2025年下半年棉花策略报告 2025 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：丰产预期较强，上方空间有限 p 2 棉花：新年度增产预期较强，棉价反弹承压 总 结 供应端：2025/26年度国内棉花丰产预期较强，美棉产量预期同比基本持平，巴西棉花产量预计值再创历史新高，印度、澳大利亚棉花产量或同比下降，预计2025/26年 度全球棉花产量与去年同比相差不大。 1、USDA6月报预计，2025/26年度全球棉花产量预计值为2547.2万吨，同比下降63.9万吨，其中中国棉花产量预计值同比下降43.5万吨，市场对此认可程度较低。2、本 年度美棉种植同比降幅约10-15%，截止6月17日，受D1-D4级别干旱影响的美棉面积占比为3%，周环比下降3个百分点，较去年同期下降6个百分点。美棉优良率为48%， 低于去年同期数据，但高于去年收割时期表现（约35%）。3、国内新棉大部分处于现蕾、开花阶段，天气状况相对适宜，本年度种植面积同比增加是市场共识，本年度 丰产概率较大。 需求端：新年度全球棉 ...

光期研究 见微知著 2025 年下半年铁合金策略报告 2025 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：终端需求偏弱，合金价格反弹承压 p 2 锰硅：关注未来锰矿发运情况 总 结 供应：低利润甚至负利润下锰硅周产量仍在逐渐增加，后续仍有一定增量预期。依据钢联数据，目前北方大区锰硅生产即期利润约- 170元/吨，南方大区锰硅生产即期利润约-500元/吨，在如此幅度亏损下，锰硅产量当周值连续六周环比回升，且还有新增产能投放，随着 后续南方地区丰水期复产意愿增加，生产亏损环比收窄情况下，未来锰硅产量仍有增量预期。 需求：终端需求偏弱影响持续，钢厂锰硅储备意愿不强。吨钢消耗锰硅数量较多螺纹产量创下近年来同期新低，样本钢厂锰硅需求量 当周值同样如此，6月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数环比略有回升，但仍处于近年来同期较低水平，终端需求不足，下游备货意愿不强。 库存：样本企业库存逐渐累积，仓单加有效预报数量同比下降，仍有9万余张。自2月底开始，锰硅样本企业库存便开始逐渐回升，截 止6月末，约22.18万吨，同比增加14.8 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 2009-2101 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2509-2601 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2601-2605 资料来源：Wind，Mysteel, 光大期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 673.0 | 663.0 | 10.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in the first half of 2025 showed a "mixed" pattern. Exports remained resilient, the growth rate of social retail sales increased significantly, but there were "hidden concerns" behind the growth. The decline in real estate investment continued to widen, and it will take time for prices to stabilize [4]. - The intensity of "rush exports" is expected to weaken in the second half of the year. The sales and production of the household appliance industry may cool down, which will affect social retail sales and industrial added value. The decline in real estate investment will continue to expand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the incremental support for urban renewal funds and the introduction of a financing system compatible with the new real - estate development model. It will take time for prices to stabilize [4][5]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. What are the new changes in exports? - **Tariff situation**: The average tariff rate of the United States on China is around 40%, an increase of 29 percentage points compared to before Trump took office. The exemption of some commodities in April 2025 accounted for 24% of China's exports to the United States in 2024 [10]. - **Export data**: In May 2025, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. In RMB, exports increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.1%. Exports to the US and India decreased significantly, while exports to the UK and the EU increased significantly. The export of labor - intensive goods mostly had negative growth, but the export of clothing and toys rebounded [13]. - **Export delivery value**: The year - on - year decline in export delivery value was obvious. The new export order index moved down from the previous central level, and the kinetic energy of new export orders weakened [18][22]. 2. What policy expectations are there? Consumption policy - **Policy introduction**: In the past year, many consumption - promoting policies have been introduced, indicating that there is potential in the consumption market. However, China's consumption rate is low, and there are also structural problems in consumption [26]. - **Reasons for low consumption rate**: The main factors determining the household consumption rate are consumption ability and marginal consumption propensity. China's income structure shows obvious differentiation, and the imperfect social security system makes residents have a strong preventive savings motivation [33][38]. - **Policy measures**: The "Boosting Consumption Special Action" addresses the problems of consumption ability and consumption tendency by increasing income and reducing burdens. The "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" further expands the scope of financial support for consumption, and the focus of consumption policies may shift to the service consumption field in the future [44][49][52]. Real - estate policy - **City renewal action**: The Politburo meeting in April proposed to intensify the implementation of the urban renewal action, which helps the real - estate investment to stabilize. The key point of follow - up attention is whether there will be incremental support for urban renewal funds [53]. - **Real - estate sales model**: The transition to the spot - sale model means the end of the high - turnover model of real - estate enterprises. The supporting policies, especially the financing policy, are not clear, which affects the funds of real - estate enterprises. It is necessary to pay attention to the introduction of a financing system compatible with the new real - estate development model [5][63]. Infrastructure policy - **Investment situation**: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year. If the scale of land reserve special bonds continues to increase this year, the special bond funds invested in traditional infrastructure fields may be less than in 2024 [64]. - **Structural differentiation**: In the context of debt resolution, infrastructure construction with the central government as the construction and expenditure subject may be stronger, while that with local governments as the subject may be weaker. The investment structure differentiation may continue [66]. - **Development space**: Railway investment still has room for development, and canal construction is in full swing. It is estimated that the overall growth rate of infrastructure in 2025 will be around 7.0% [66][70][73]. 3. Can prices stabilize and rebound? - **Price influencing factors**: The impact of currency on prices depends on the supply - demand relationship. Increasing the money supply may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand and make it difficult for prices to rise. The key to boosting prices is to expand effective demand and smooth the supply - demand cycle [76]. - **Policy measures**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain sufficient liquidity, and create a good monetary and financial environment for the reasonable recovery of prices [76]. - **PPI situation**: The tail - wagging factor in the first half of the year continued to drag down the performance of PPI, and it will take time for prices to recover [80].

2025 年下半年铝 策略报告 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铝：供需增速收敛，前托底后冲顶 p 2 铝：供需增速收敛，前托底后冲顶 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：据SMM，6月底国内氧化铝运行产能将恢复至8795万吨，开工率83.8%，上半年产量4368.3万吨，同比上涨8.5%。电解铝运行产 | | | 能平稳运行在4391万吨，开工率96.1%，上半年产量2167.8万吨，同比上涨2.5%。用矿成本分化、各地增减产并行。山西延续复产节奏， | | | 河南开工持稳，山东及广西降负荷。供给维持高稳，短期暂无新增和置换计划，铝水比提升至76%附近，铸锭量维持压减。 | | | 2、需求：上半年开工节奏受到关税拖累，平均开工率60.2%，同比下滑1.98%；1-5月下游综合加工订单超预期，加工PMI均值51.8，同 | | | 比增长4.5，预计6月PMI降幅空间明显。其中铝板带箔和线缆开工同比跌幅较大，型材展现相对韧性。铝棒加工费全线回调160- ...

1. Index Trends - On June 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22% to close at 3448.45 points, with a trading volume of 603.095 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.48% to close at 10343.48 points, with a trading volume of 980.056 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.45%, with a trading volume of 343.746 billion yuan. The opening price was 6272.44, the closing price was 6247.79, the highest price was 6310.54, and the lowest price was 6244.78 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell by 0.41%, with a trading volume of 235.224 billion yuan. The opening price was 5868.29, the closing price was 5838.25, the highest price was 5885.25, and the lowest price was 5835.34 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell by 0.34%, with a trading volume of 87.101 billion yuan. The opening price was 2740.23, the closing price was 2738.47, the highest price was 2747.61, and the lowest price was 2734.95 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 28.37 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as automobiles, electronics, and pharmaceuticals significantly dragged down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 24.3 points from the previous closing price. The banking sector significantly boosted the index, while sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics significantly dragged it down [2]. - The SSE 300 Index dropped 14.05 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as banking, communications, and food and beverages significantly boosted the index, while sectors such as power equipment, automobiles, and non - bank finance significantly dragged it down [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 9.26 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as banking, food and beverages, and public utilities significantly boosted the index, while sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance significantly dragged it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 45.13, IM01 had - 100.83, IM02 had - 162.62, and IM03 had - 331.27 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 35.8, IC01 had - 76.94, IC02 had - 119.69, and IC03 had - 235.25 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 26.42, IF01 had - 38.77, IF02 had - 43.57, and IF03 had - 74.93 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 24.19, IH01 had - 28.38, IH02 had - 27.35, and IH03 had - 26.96 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791, etc. [22]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318, etc. [24]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098, etc. [29]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc. [28]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | | 收至 130 元/吨。佛山 A00 报价回落至 20490 元/吨，对无锡 A00 贴水 140 元/吨，铝棒 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 加工费包头河南临沂持稳，新疆南昌无锡广东下调 20-50 元/吨，铝杆 1A60 系、6/8 | 系 | | | 加工费持稳，低碳铝杆上调 93 元/吨。氧化铝远月矿石扰动和新增投产压力并存，区间 | | | | 震荡为主。电解铝需求边际走弱与低铸锭量和低仓单挤仓效应间存在博弈，宏观风险 | | | | 计价加码，警惕波动风险。废铝成本支撑仍在，铝合金持续关注滚动做多 AD-AL 价差 | | | | 机会。 | | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.5%报 15150 美元/吨，沪镍涨 0.75%报 120680 元/吨。库存方面，昨日 | | | | LME 库存减少 144 吨至 204216 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 96 至 21263 吨。升贴水来 | | | | 看，LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 250 元/吨。据铁合金，大厂 6 | 月 | | | 高镍铁第三轮招标价为 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期，玉米 | | 7 月合约多空主力明显减持，多头主力移仓有限，获利了结加剧行情 | 震荡 | | 波动。期货市场虽显疲软，但现货行情表现仍偏强，主流报价仍维持相对高位， | | | | | 贸易商余货有限。深加工玉米收购价格处于高位。 | | 华北地区玉米价格主流价格 | | | 维持稳定，局部地区窄幅调整。山东深加工企业门前到货量车辆尚可，除了部分 | | | | | 本地贸易商开始出货外，部分地区东北货源继续补充华北市场，深加工企业玉米 | | | | | 玉米 | | 收购价格整体稳定，个别窄幅调整。 销区市场玉米价格整体稳定运行。期货表 | | | 现一般，但产区玉米报价坚挺。销区港口报价暂稳，市场高价接受度有限，饲料 | | | | | 厂现货多提前期订单，刚需补库，小麦替代优势仍较明显。技术上，玉米 | | 7 月持 | | | 仓向 | | 9 月转移的过程中，多头移仓有限，受仓位调整影响玉米 9 月合约上行乏力。 | | | 周四，9 | ...