光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） | | 周三，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2603 收跌 0.08%，报 2480 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2603 收涨 0.47%，报 3014 元/吨。据 | | | | 金联创开工率计算公式显示，截至 12 月 24 日，中国地炼常减压 | | | | 开工率为 70.75%，较上周跌 0.19 个百分点。从基本面看，低硫燃 | | | | 料油市场结构小幅走强，高硫燃料油市场也稍有支撑。由于前期 | | | 燃料油 | 套利经济性不佳，预计 12 月来自西方市场的低硫燃料油到货量将 | 震荡 | | | 出现三个月来的首次下降，对低硫燃料油市场稍有支撑；但套利 | | | | 货流入量可能在 1 月再次反弹，亚洲低硫燃料油市场预计在整个 | | | | 1 月乃至可能延续到 2 月都将保持供应充足。高硫端，尽管即期 | | | | 供应充足，但良好的下游船用燃料需求为市场基本面提供一些支 | | | | 撑。上周高、低硫仓单均有注册，短期 FU 和 LU 绝 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 23, industrial silicon trended strongly with fluctuations. The main contract 2605 closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 1.68% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 7830 lots to 214000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9580.593 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 70 yuan/ton. - Polycrystalline silicon trended weakly with fluctuations. The main contract 2605 closed at 59225 yuan/ton, down 0.91% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 3346 lots to 132000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polycrystalline silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 52350 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 52350 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 6875 yuan/ton. - New maintenance plans were reported at northwest manufacturers. As the newly produced products were locked by previous hedging orders, the overall pressure on manufacturers was not significant. There is an expectation of further environmental protection - related production cuts in the northwest at the end of the year. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a strong short - term trend due to production cuts and the boost from polycrystalline silicon. - Silicon factories significantly raised their spot prices, while some consulting websites insisted on stable price announcements. Affected by the continuous rise in silver prices, the prices of full - size solar cells and silicon wafers increased. Downstream producers face certain production cut pressure under the new quota requirements of the association. - The exchange increased the minimum opening position, leading to a narrow correction in the futures market. Supported by the news of state reserves and limited newly registered warehouse receipts, the narrowing range of the futures premium against the spot was limited. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon trended strongly with fluctuations on December 23, while polycrystalline silicon trended weakly with fluctuations. There are new maintenance plans in the northwest, and there is an expectation of further environmental protection - related production cuts at the end of the year. Industrial silicon is expected to remain strong in the short term. The prices of solar cells and silicon wafers increased, and downstream producers face production cut pressure. The futures market had a narrow correction, and the narrowing of the futures premium against the spot was limited. [2] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8595 yuan/ton on December 22 to 8780 yuan/ton on December 23, up 185 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract increased from 8590 yuan/ton to 8725 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton. - **Industrial Silicon Spot**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained stable, with no price changes. The current lowest deliverable price was 8850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 255 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton. - **Polycrystalline Silicon Futures**: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 58845 yuan/ton on December 22 to 59225 yuan/ton on December 23, up 380 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract increased from 58695 yuan/ton to 58900 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton. - **Polycrystalline Silicon Spot**: The price of N - type recycled polycrystalline silicon material dropped from 52400 yuan/ton to 52350 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped from 52400 yuan/ton to 52350 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widened from 6445 yuan/ton to 6875 yuan/ton. - **Organic Silicon Spot**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 14200 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 156 lots to 9175 lots. The weekly inventory at GFE increased by 2000 tons to 45095 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 2250 tons to 464400 tons. The weekly inventory of polycrystalline silicon at GFE increased by 0.1 million tons to 10.98 million tons. The total social inventory of polycrystalline silicon increased by 0.8 million tons to 30.6 million tons. [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades, brand spreads, regional spreads of industrial silicon, as well as the prices of electricity, silica, and coal used in its production. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and photovoltaic modules. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon futures inventories, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and DMC. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon in different regions, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit. [13][14][21][26]

Research Views - Corn: On Tuesday, the near - month 2601 contract of corn reduced positions and declined, the main 2603 contract adjusted accordingly. Northeast corn trading was less active, with limited supply and poor transaction. There was no profit in shipping to the north port. The downstream demand in the sales area was weak. Technically, the March contract reached the weekly moving - average concentration area, showing signs of short - term stabilization. A light - position short - term long position could be considered. The view is "downward" [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined slightly. As of December 11, the net weekly sales of US soybeans were 2.3962 million tons, with 1.383 million tons sold to China. Domestically, the two - meal market stopped falling and rose, with a slight increase in positions. Oil mills maintained high - level crushing, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. Downstream buyers were cautious. The price of soybean meal had limited upward and downward space, and the strategy was a double - selling strategy. The view is "sideways" [1]. - Edible Oils: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose for the second consecutive day, following the increase in soybean oil prices. International crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical concerns. Indonesia set the bio - diesel blending quota for 2026 at 15.646 million kiloliters. The export of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 20 decreased by 0.87% month - on - month. Domestically, the edible oil market continued to rebound, led by palm oil. The increase in import costs and limited purchases for December - January shipments supported the price. However, due to weak terminal demand and expected increase in soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply, the domestic market was weaker than the overseas market. The strategy was a double - selling strategy. The view is "sideways" [1]. - Eggs: On Tuesday, egg futures showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The near - month contract continued to fall, with the 2601 contract down 0.72% to 3027 yuan/500 kg, and the main 2602 contract down 0.42% to 2876 yuan/500 kg. The national egg price was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. With the approaching New Year's Day, the festival demand boosted, while the supply was ample, so the spot price was basically flat. The optimistic expectation of declining production capacity supported the far - month contract, and the near - month contract was affected by the spot price and weakened. The view is "sideways" [1]. - Pigs: On Tuesday, near - and far - month pig contracts fluctuated in a narrow range. The main 2603 contract closed with a small positive line, consolidating at the bottom. In the spot market, pig prices in the north rose slightly, while those in the south fell slightly. In Northeast China, the medium - and large - sized pig prices remained stable, and the spread between standard and fat pigs slightly narrowed. In Jiangxi, the average pig price decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. Some enterprises tried to raise prices, but the transactions worsened. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the bottom performance of the March contract, and a light - position long - term long position could be considered for the far - month contract. The view is "upward" [1][2]. Market Information - EU's imports of soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal, and palm oil in the 2025/26 season (starting in July) declined year - on - year as of December 21. Soybean imports reached 6 million tons, down 14%; rapeseed imports were 1.72 million tons, down 41%; soybean meal imports decreased 11% to 8.83 million tons; palm oil imports were 1.45 million tons, down 9% [3]. - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the authorities should improve efficiency during the harvest of major crops such as palm oil [3]. - As of December 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 2,148,146 tons [3]. - Recently, the arrival of imported soybeans slowed down, but oil mills maintained high - level operation, and the soybean inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total domestic imported soybean inventory was 7.722 million tons, 333,000 tons less than last week [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads of various agricultural products, including corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, soybean 5 - 9 spread, soybean meal 5 - 9 spread, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread, palm oil 5 - 9 spread, egg 5 - 9 spread, and pig 5 - 9 spread [4][5][6][8][11]. Contract Basis - The report shows contract basis of various agricultural products, including corn basis, corn starch basis, soybean basis, soybean meal basis, soybean oil basis, palm oil basis, egg basis, and pig basis [12][13][17][22][23]. Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. Her futures qualification number is F0243534, and her trading consultation number is Z0001262 [25]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with over ten years of futures experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. Her futures qualification number is F3048706, and her trading consultation number is Z0013637 [25]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Her futures qualification number is F3032578, and her trading consultation number is Z0013544 [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.64% to close at 64.02 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 0.43% to close at 14,140 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 13,922 lots to 799,000 lots [2]. - In the international market, there are still macro - level disturbances. Trump stated that those who disagree with his views cannot be candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. The overall driving force is limited. In the domestic market, the recent price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has been oscillating upward. The strong expectation is one of the main factors driving the recent market. There are strong rumors about the regulation of cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year, and many institutions have reprinted relevant articles [2]. - Fundamentally, in the short - term, there are both long and short factors for Zhengzhou cotton. The subsequent focuses are: whether the consumption performance can continue and whether downstream textile enterprises will have a new round of restocking demand before the Spring Festival; whether there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut at the macro - level in the first quarter of next year, and the details of the new round of cotton target price subsidy policy usually announced around April 10th. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton has certain support driven by sentiment, and in the medium - to - long - term, the upside space of cotton prices is greater than the downside space [2]. Sugar - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that Ukraine's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 1.49 million tons, the same as the estimate released in May but a decrease of 310,000 tons compared to the 2024/25 crushing season. The expected sugar export volume in the 2025/26 crushing season will reach 701,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to the May estimate, and the ending inventory is expected to be 679,000 tons, consistent with the previous forecast [2]. - In terms of spot prices, the price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups is 5,250 - 5,370 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,110 - 5,230 yuan per ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan per ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar factories is 5,690 - 5,900 yuan per ton, with individual prices up 20 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market has a mild rebound, and some institutions predict a decline in Brazil's production in the next crushing season. In the domestic market, spot prices have stabilized, rigid demand procurement has recovered, market sentiment has warmed up mildly, and the futures market has rebounded slightly. In the short - term, it is testing the pressure at the upper integer level, waiting for new guidance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring | Variety | Contract Spread | Latest | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | Spot Location | Latest | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 55 | - 5 | 1073 | - 11 | Xinjiang | 15067 | 81 | | | | | | | | National | 15213 | 59 | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 104 | 7 | 205 | - 29 | Nanning | 5270 | 0 | | | | | | | | Liuzhou | 5360 | 0 | [3] Market Information - On December 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,088, an increase of 13 from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 4,001 [4]. - On December 23, the arrival prices of cotton in various domestic regions were: 15,067 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,243 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,246 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,378 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On December 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.4, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 28, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 31.8, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - On December 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,270 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,360 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - On December 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 4,479, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the number of valid forecasts was 1,181 [4]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton and sugar, such as cotton's main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China Cotton Price Index; sugar's main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [7][8][10][11][13][14][16]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 5.31%至 120160 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 500 元/吨至 99500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 500 元/吨至 96850 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 1000 元/吨至 88480 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 240 吨至 16651 吨。 2. 供给端，周度产量环比增加 47 吨至 22045 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 60 吨至 13804 吨，锂云母 产量环比减少 50 吨至 2826 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 20 吨至 3095 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 17 吨至 2320 吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 468 吨至 17845 吨，库存环比减少 433 吨至 18091 吨； 周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 2083 吨至 92061 吨，库存环比减少 1387 吨至 102271 吨。据乘联会，12 月 1-14 日，全国乘用车市场零售 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 仓减仓 378 手至 15640 手；现货方面，SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 2746 元/吨。铝锭现货贴 水扩至 170 元/吨。佛山 A00 报价回落至 21790 元/吨，对无锡 A00 报贴水 70 元/吨，铝 棒加工费多地持稳，新疆南昌南昌无锡上调 10-30 元/吨；铝杆 1A60 系加工费及 6/8 系 加工费持稳，低碳铝杆下调 58 元/吨。几矿增加发运叠加大型矿业复产，给予近远期矿 石到港支撑。因新疆交割库利润不再，仓单开始外流，同时进口氧化铝增量，持续给予 现货氧化铝增压。氧化铝延续下跌态势逐步向期货收敛，现货高升水持续收窄。新疆发 运受阻的铝锭或集中到库，后续面临转累库压力。随着宏观情绪计价完毕，铝价后续涨 势相对乏力，延续高位震荡节奏。 隔夜 LME 镍涨 2.49%报 15640 美元/吨，沪镍涨 2.52%报 125360 元/吨。库存方面，LME 库存增加 216 吨至 254604 吨，SHFE 仓单减少 301 吨至 38621 吨。升贴水来看，LME0- 3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 400 元/吨。消息面，印尼镍矿商协会透露，2026 年 ...

光期研究 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 2 4 日 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 778.5 | 781.5 | -3.0 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | | I09 | 756.5 | 760.5 | -4.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -37.0 | -3.0 | | I01 | 796.5 | 797.5 | -1.0 | I01-I05 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-210 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Urea**: On Tuesday, the urea futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,721 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.24%. The spot market transactions improved, and the sales-to-production ratio in most mainstream regions increased to over 100%. However, the prices in some mainstream regions began to decline slightly. Fundamentally, the urea supply continued to decrease, with the daily output on the previous day at 189,800 tons, a daily decrease of 25,000 tons. The market focus is on the Indian tender and changes in China's export policy. Before new positive factors are realized, the futures price will mainly show a firm and fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to factors such as the Indian tender results, export expectations, supply levels, spot trading atmosphere, overall commodity trends, and this week's urea inventory data [1]. - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated widely. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.6%. The spot market quotes were mostly stable. Fundamentally, the industry's maintenance and resumption of production alternated, but the short - term maintenance losses exceeded the resumption of production output, and the supply level continued to decline. The demand follow - up was still poor. There is no new driving force in the supply - demand relationship of soda ash, and the futures price was slightly boosted by the overall rebound of the commodity market. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - wide - fluctuation mindset and pay attention to factors such as the overall trend of the commodity market, soda ash start - up and new production capacity production rhythm, and downstream capacity changes [1]. - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the glass futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,028 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.29%. The spot price was still weak. There was no significant change in the glass production line recently, and the daily melting volume of the industry remained at 155,000 tons. The demand follow - up could be maintained, but the sustainability of spot transactions needs to be tracked. The supply - demand and internal - external factors of glass are in a game stage. The external macro - sentiment and the rebound of the commodity market provide bottom support, but the self - driving force is insufficient. The futures price will temporarily continue the bottom - range - fluctuation trend. Attention should be paid to macro and policy changes, the overall trend of the commodity market, glass production line changes, and the spot trading atmosphere [1]. Group 3: Market Information Urea - On December 23, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 10,532, a decrease of 349 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 379 [4]. - On December 23, the daily output of the urea industry was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 13,800 tons from the same period last year. The start - up rate on this day was 78.49%, a recovery of 0.62 percentage points from 77.87% in the same period last year [4]. - On December 23, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions of China were as follows: Shandong 1,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Henan 1,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Hebei 1,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu 1,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1,560 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 23, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 4,523, a decrease of 209 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 978. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 217, a decrease of 1 from the previous trading day [6]. - On December 23, the spot prices of soda ash were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 930 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 930 yuan/ton [6]. - On December 23, the start - up rate of the soda ash industry was 79.62%, down from 80.99% on the previous working day [7]. - On December 23, the average price of the float glass market was 1,080 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The industry's daily output was 155,100 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, their basis, trading volume and open interest of the main contracts, price spreads between different contracts, spot price trends, and the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][10][11][12][13][15][17][18][19][20]. Group 5: Research Team Members - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research. He has participated in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the writing of series books by the China Futures Association. He has won many awards, including "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" and "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [22]. - **Zhang Linglu**: An analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in large - scale projects and topics of the China Futures Association and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards [22]. - **Sun Chengzhen**: An analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has participated in relevant topic writing of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards [22].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3128 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 趋弱 | | | 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅为 0.06%，持仓减少 1.19 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.89 万吨。 | | | | 据海关数据，1-11 月我国棒线材出口 1725.92 万吨，同比增长 44.05%；钢坯出口 1338.01 万吨，同比增长 | | | | 140.64%。棒线材及钢坯出口大幅增长，在很大程度上缓解了国内螺纹钢供应压力。目前螺纹现实供需偏 | | | | 强，多地缺规格，不过市场对于 1 月份供需普遍有将逐步趋弱的预期，市场情绪仍偏谨慎。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 778.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market showed a pattern of rising and then falling on Tuesday, with the three major indexes slightly up. The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower edge of the central position since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes and frequent sector rotations. Short - term policy influence on the market is expected to increase after the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. The important meetings indicate a 5% GDP growth target for next year, and policy efforts will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productivity". The combination of fiscal and monetary policies will continue, and the scale may increase slightly compared to this year. Overseas, the Fed's rate cut and restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan have led to oscillations in US tech stocks, and the Bank of Japan's upcoming interest - rate meeting may affect carry - trade funds. The impact of important meetings on the stock index is long - term, and in the short term, it will mainly oscillate [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but rate - cut operations will be cautious. Although the central bank has shown an attitude of stabilizing the capital market, the overall economy remains resilient, prices are warming up, and the oscillating pattern of the bond market is difficult to change [1][2]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries **Research Views** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market had a volatile performance on Tuesday, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume was 1.92 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.41%. The stock index futures market has been oscillating around the lower edge of the central position since October. Policy influence is expected to increase, and the GDP growth target for next year is expected to be 5%. Overseas factors, such as the Fed's rate cut and the Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting, also have an impact. The short - term view is that the stock index will oscillate [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed with gains on the previous trading day. The central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on December 23, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 declined. The monetary policy in 2026 will be moderately loose, but rate - cut operations will be cautious. The short - term capital market is loose, but the bond market's oscillating pattern is difficult to change [1][2]. **Daily Price Changes** - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 23, 2025, IH rose 7.2 points (0.24%) to 3,025.6, IF rose 6.6 points (0.14%) to 4,571.4, IC rose 10.0 points (0.14%) to 7,133.2, and IM fell 6.2 points (- 0.09%) to 7,197.4 compared to December 22 [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index rose 7.3 points (0.24%) to 3,027.5, the CSI 300 Index rose 9.1 points (0.20%) to 4,620.7, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.1 points (0.02%) to 7,256.8, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 15.9 points (- 0.22%) to 7,392.4 on December 23, 2025, compared to December 22 [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On December 23, 2025, TS rose 0.062 points (0.06%) to 102.53, TF rose 0.165 points (0.16%) to 106.03, T rose 0.24 points (0.22%) to 108.22, and TL rose 0.85 points (0.76%) to 112.83 compared to December 22 [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: On December 23, 2025, the yield of the 2 - year treasury bond fell 3.03 to 1.3401, the 5 - year treasury bond yield fell 2.06 to 1.5875, the 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.69 to 1.8355, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield fell 2.3 to 2.2200 compared to December 22 [4]. **Market News** - US Treasury Secretary Bessent supports re - examining the Fed's 2% inflation target after inflation has continuously declined to the target level. He suggests discussing adjusting the inflation target to a range such as 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3%. However, he warns that adjusting the target during high inflation may give a negative impression [5]. **Chart Analysis** - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, showing their price changes over time [6][7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts include the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17][18][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar - RMB exchange rates, forward euro - RMB exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, British pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [21][22][24][26][28][30].