Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts showed an upward trend on June 23, 2025, with significant increases in some cases [6][12][18][23]. - In the top twenty positions, major institutions such as Citic Futures and Guotai Junan Futures significantly increased their long and short positions in multiple varieties [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total and Main Contract Positions**: On June 23, the total positions of the IF variety increased by 18,334 lots, and the positions of the main contract 2509 increased by 9,751 lots [6]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,606 lots. Citic Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 3,455 lots, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 67 lots [7]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,977 lots. Citic Futures also had the largest increase in short positions, adding 3,521 lots, and Citic Construction Investment Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 410 lots [9]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total and Main Contract Positions**: On June 23, the total positions of the IH variety increased by 12,339 lots, and the positions of the main contract 2509 increased by 7,115 lots [12]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,319 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 3,018 lots, and Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 102 lots [13]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,059 lots. Citic Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 3,095 lots, and China Merchants Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 34 lots [14]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total and Main Contract Positions**: On June 23, the total positions of the IC variety increased by 6,879 lots, and the positions of the main contract 2507 increased by 1,059 lots [18]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 36,297 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,141 lots, and Zheshang Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 157 lots [18]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,688 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,398 lots, and CICC Wealth had the largest decrease, reducing 556 lots [19]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total and Main Contract Positions**: On June 23, the total positions of the IM variety increased by 12,238 lots, and the positions of the main contract 2509 increased by 6,910 lots [23]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,878 lots. Citic Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,932 lots, and Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,120 lots [23]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 64,072 lots. Citic Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 3,858 lots, and Everbright Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 553 lots [24].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货：A 股低开高走， ...

玉米系期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月24日 朱迪 Z0015979 | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米2509 | 2408 | 2409 | -1 | -0.04% | | | 锦州港平舱价 | 2380 | 2380 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 募差 | -28 | -29 | 1 | 3.45% | | | 玉米9-1价差 | 117 | 120 | -3 | -2.50% | 元/吨 | | 蛇口散粮价 | 2460 | 2460 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 南北贸易利润 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 到岸完税价CIF | 1924 | 1927 | -3 | -0.15% | | | 讲口利润 | 536 | 533 | 3 | 0.53% | | | 山东深加工早间剩余车辆 | 700 | 402 | 298 | 74.13% | 9内 | | 持仓量 | 1817240 | 1818031 | -791 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given text. Core Views of the Report Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices have no clear and smooth trend. Fundamental realities limit price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices will likely fluctuate. Q3 may face pressure on the real demand side, and the US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. Aluminum prices are expected to have high - level wide - range oscillations, with the main reference range of 19600 - 20600 [4]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the mine - end growth rate fails to meet expectations and downstream consumption shows super - expected performance, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation. In a pessimistic scenario, the price center may shift down. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach in the medium - to - long - term, with the main reference range of 21500 - 23000 [6]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel market is expected to have a weakly oscillating adjustment, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upward price space [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly, with the main operating range of 12300 - 13000. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm [10]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but considering the pessimistic demand expectations, a short - selling approach can be taken at 260000 - 265000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 10.87%. The import loss widened to 2522 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and imports increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes, with SHFE warehouse receipts dropping by 94.43% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 21950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The import loss widened to 643 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. Some开工 rates decreased [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 119500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93%. The production cost of electrolytic nickel from different sources decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35350 tons, and imports increased by 8.18% to 8832 tons. Multiple inventories showed different changes [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The prices of some raw materials remained stable [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons. Imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56% [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 261800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons. Multiple inventories decreased [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 20050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of lithium - bearing ore decreased slightly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72080 tons, and demand increased by 4.83% to 93960 tons. Total inventory increased by 1.49% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Black metal prices have stabilized with a rising central level. Futures prices strengthened on Friday, and the basis remained weak. Hot - rolled coil production has rebounded, with high apparent demand and a small decline. However, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, and the apparent demand has declined. Steel and billet exports remain high, absorbing production. It is still the off - season for steel, and demand is difficult to improve marginally. Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. Operate with a bearish bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 and 3050 yuan for hot - rolled coil and rebar respectively[1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, iron ore is under obvious upward pressure due to the expected decline in hot metal, supply increase, and administrative production cuts. However, the short - term decline in hot metal is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. During the off - season when demand weakens, the price range of iron ore may shift downwards, with a reference range of 670 - 720 yuan[3]. Coke - Last week, coke futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the spot market was weakly stable. On the supply side, environmental protection inspections have led to production cuts in northern regions, and independent coking operations have declined. On the demand side, hot metal production has continued to decline after reaching a peak. In terms of inventory, coking plants and ports have reduced inventories, and steel mills are actively reducing inventories. Strategically, consider short - term shorting of the coke 2509 contract on rebounds and a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy[5]. Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the spot market was weakly stable. On the supply side, domestic production has decreased due to various factors, and imported coal has different situations. On the demand side, coking operations have declined, and downstream users are cautious in restocking. In terms of inventory, overall inventory is at a medium level. Strategically, consider short - term long - coking coal 2509 contract on dips and a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy[5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon: Last week, ferrosilicon production increased slightly, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Due to weakening demand, prices are weak, and manufacturers' losses are intensifying. Although inventories have decreased, they are still relatively high. In terms of demand, hot metal production has increased slightly, but there are risks of off - season demand decline. Strategically, it is recommended to short on rebounds[7]. - Ferromanganese: Last week, ferromanganese production increased slightly, with restarts mainly in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Supply pressure persists during the off - season. Inventories of manufacturers have increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has continued to decline. Although the overall supply - demand situation has improved, it is still insufficient. Strategically, it is recommended to short on rebounds[7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed small changes, with some increases. Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also rose slightly. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends[1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets increased by 10 yuan, and the price of slab remained unchanged. The costs of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar and converter rebar decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased to varying degrees[1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 9.7 tons to 868.5 tons, a 1.1% increase. Rebar output increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons, a 2.2% increase, with converter output increasing and electric - arc furnace output decreasing. Hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.8 tons to 325.5 tons, a 0.2% increase[1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 tons to 1338.9 tons, a 1.2% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 tons to 551.1 tons, a 1.3% decrease. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 tons to 340.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease[1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 0.7 to 9.7 tons, an 8.2% increase. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 16.1 tons to 884.2 tons, a 1.9% increase. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 0.8 tons to 219.2 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 10.8 tons to 330.7 tons, a 3.4% increase[1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly. The basis of 09 contracts for different varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread increased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly[3]. Supply - The global weekly shipment volume decreased by 157.7 tons to 3352.7 tons, a 4.5% decrease, mainly due to a decrease in Australian shipments. The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 224.8 tons to 2384.5 tons, an 8.6% decrease, mainly due to the decrease in Brazilian ore arrivals[3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports increased by 12.3 to 313.6 tons, a 4.1% increase. National monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased[3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13894.16 tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 137.6 to 8936.2 tons, a 1.6% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2 to 19 days, a 9.5% decrease[3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. Coke futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The J09 - J01 spread increased slightly. Coking profits decreased[5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 64.7 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 47.4 tons, a 0.3% increase[5]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase[5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 18.8 to 952.9 tons, a 1.9% decrease. Coking plant inventories, steel mill inventories, and port inventories all decreased to varying degrees[5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 to - 5.2 tons, a 9.04% decrease[5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Coking coal futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. Sample coal mine profits decreased by 24, a 7.5% decrease[5]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal decreased by 9.8 to 856.4 tons, a 1.1% decrease, and the production of clean coal decreased by 3.4 to 437.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease[5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 64.7 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 47.4 tons, a 0.3% increase[5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei mines decreased by 25.1 to 258.9 tons, an 8.84% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.3 to 795.8 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.7 to 774.7 tons, a 0.14% increase. Port inventories decreased by 8.7 to 303.3 tons, a 2.8% decrease[5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 10 to 5300 yuan. The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 32 to 5616 yuan. The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different changes[7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions decreased slightly, and the production profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased slightly. The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port showed small changes, and the production costs and profits of ferromanganese in different regions also changed[7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased by 3 to 98 tons, a 2.9% increase, and the production enterprise's operating rate increased by 1.3 to 32.7%, a 4.3% increase. Ferromanganese production increased slightly, and the operating rate increased by 1.1 to 36.4%, a 3.14% increase. Manganese ore shipments increased by 9 to 70.7 tons, a 14.6% increase, and arrivals decreased by 14 to 53.8 tons, a 20.6% decrease. Manganese ore port inventories increased by 19.9 to 440.1 tons, a 4.7% increase[7]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand calculated by the Steel Union remained unchanged at 2 tons. The ferromanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increased by 0.2 to 124 tons. The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 to 68 tons, a 2.7% decrease. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 1.0 to 20.6 tons, a 5.14% increase. The average available days of ferrosilicon inventory for downstream users increased by 0.2 to 15.4 days, a 1.2% increase. The average available days of ferromanganese inventory decreased by 0.3 to 15 days, a 1.9% decrease[7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic soybean inventory pressure is manageable, and soybean meal inventory remains low. Despite improved开机 rates, there is no inventory pressure on soybean meal due to active downstream pick - up. The basis has slightly improved this week. The subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, but the support from US soybeans is strengthening, and the Brazilian premium is also expected to be strong before the expectation of US soybean imports opens. The futures price may follow the US soybeans for a short - term correction, but the space is limited. It is recommended to place rolling long orders on dips [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The slaughter weight of live pigs is slowly declining, and the reluctance to sell among farmers has increased recently, driving a rebound in the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, which supports the price this week. There are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side, and the market price is expected to remain volatile [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - Currently, the supply varies with the rhythm of traders. Northeast traders have tight inventories and are reluctant to sell at low prices, keeping the price firm. North China traders take profits after the corn price rises to a high level, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants has recovered on weekends, with the price remaining stable with partial declines. The profit of downstream deep - processing has recovered, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is stable. The breeding sector replenishes inventory on a just - in - time basis. However, the shrinking price difference between wheat and corn and even parity have increased the substitution for feed use, limiting the increase in corn prices. In the long - term, the tight supply of corn, low import volume, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward trend of corn prices. In the short - term, the tight supply supports the corn price, but the concentrated listing of wheat restricts the upward rhythm. However, the expansion of the minimum purchase price policy range supports the price, and the corn market remains in a volatile and slightly strong state with limited amplitude. Attention should be paid to the subsequent wheat market and policy situation [6]. Sugar - The sugar production data in Brazil in late May increased year - on - year, and the weather in India and Thailand is favorable for sugarcane growth. The global supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Currently, the negative factors in the market have been fully reflected in the price trend. If there are no new negative factors to drive the market, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. It is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week, with a reference range of 5650 - 5800 [10]. Oils and Fats - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4100 ringgit. Due to concerns about the slowdown in export growth in the first 20 days, the crude palm oil futures have slightly declined after reaching a high. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support at 4100 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level stagnant and declining trend. In the short - term, it is expected to pull back and seek support at 8500 yuan, and there is a possibility of breaking below 8500 yuan and further falling to the 8300 - 8350 yuan range under the influence of the oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. For soybean oil, crude oil has entered an oscillating adjustment state after a significant increase on the 13th, and the supply in the Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted, so the upside space of crude oil is limited at present, which affects the trend of vegetable oils used as biodiesel raw materials. In the short - term, the CBOT soybean oil main July contract is oscillating below 55 cents. In the domestic market, it is currently the lightest demand season, with schools on vacation and reduced demand from canteens and small restaurants around schools. The high factory operating rate and high soybean oil production have led to inventory accumulation. If the futures price enters a stagnant and adjusting trend, the spot basis quotation will be supported; if the futures price rises again, the spot basis quotation will be dragged down and may decline [12]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak, the operating rate of the industrial downstream continues to decline, and the finished product inventory continues to rise. However, the weakening force is still not strong. The basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively firm, and only a small amount of cotton in Kashgar has slightly adjusted the basis, but the mainstream price remains unchanged, so there is still support for cotton prices. The long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the macro and industrial downstream demand [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is still relatively abundant. The sales speed of low - priced eggs is acceptable, while that of high - priced eggs is average. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a slight decline later [14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 is 3067 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.32%) from the previous value; the basis of M2509 is - 127 yuan, up 10 yuan (7.30%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is m2509 - 140; the Brazilian 8 - month shipment has a disk import profit of 188 yuan, up 27 yuan (16.8%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 26001, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2581 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.35%) from the previous value; the futures price of RM2509 is 2679 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%) from the previous value; the basis of RM2509 is - 98 yuan, up 6 yuan (5.77%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is rm09 - 90; the Canadian 11 - month shipment has a disk import profit of - 30 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 31.25%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 25824, down 30 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4259 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.61%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 299 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 9.52%) from the previous value; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3690 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3750 yuan, down 14 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is - 60 yuan, up 14 yuan (18.92%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 19811, down 316 yuan (- 1.57%) from the previous value [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is - 30 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 11.11%) from the previous value; the rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is 284 yuan, up 18 yuan (6.77%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.87, up 0.017 (0.60%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.66, up 0.010 (0.38%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 350 yuan, up 9 yuan (2.57%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 is 388 yuan, up 5 yuan (1.31%) from the previous value [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis is 505 yuan, down 135 yuan (- 21.09%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2507 is 13335 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2509 is 13895 yuan, up 135 yuan (0.98%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is 560 yuan, up 55 yuan (10.89%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 76202, down 84 (- 0.11%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 750, unchanged from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The current prices in Henan and Shandong are 14400 yuan and 14500 yuan respectively, with changes of 0 yuan and 50 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13650 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous value; the price in Liaoning is 13950 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Guangdong is 15490 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Hunan is 13910 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the price in Hebei is 14300 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 145340 heads, down 1483 heads (- 1.01%) from the previous value; the weekly white - strip price is 20.32 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 28.00 yuan, up 0.9 yuan (3.17%) from the previous value; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.28 kg, down 0.5 kg (- 0.42%) from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is 19 yuan, up 22.3 yuan (768.97%) from the previous value; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 187 yuan, up 23.9 yuan (11.32%) from the previous value; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40380000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) from the previous value [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 is 2409 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is - 29 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 16.00%) from the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread of corn is 120 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.69%) from the previous value; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2460 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%) from the previous value; the north - south trade profit is 9 yuan, up 10 yuan (1000.00%) from the previous value; the CIF price is 1927 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value; the import profit is 533 yuan, up 12 yuan (2.35%) from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 16, down 132 (- 89.19%) from the previous value; the position is 1818031, up 12153 (0.67%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 216521, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 is 2701 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%) from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2720 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price in Weifang is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is 19 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 5.00%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of corn starch is - 87 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.33%) from the previous value; the starch - corn disk spread is 292 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 1.02%) from the previous value; the Shandong starch profit is - 88 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 12.82%) from the previous value; the position is 254743, down 14605 (- 5.42%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 24233, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5573 yuan, up 47 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value; the price of sugar 2509 is 5720 yuan, up 62 yuan (1.10%) from the previous value; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.53 cents, up 0.18 cents (1.10%) from the previous value; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar is - 147 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 11.36%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 368972, down 15708 (- 4.08%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt number is 27669, down 610 (- 2.16%) from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the price in Kunming is 5855 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis in Nanning is 310 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 14.36%) from the previous value; the basis in Kunming is 135 yuan, down 62 yuan (- 31.47%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4393 yuan, down 42 yuan (- 0.95%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5578 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.98%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1637 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 3.28%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 452 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 16.80%) from the previous value [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons (11.63%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales is 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons (26.07%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%) from the previous value; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 65.73 million tons, down 0.88 million tons (- 1.32%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 7.49 percentage points (12.97%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 63.96%, up 6.03 percentage points (10.41%) from the previous value; the national industrial inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons (- 8.20%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 232.97 million tons, down 27.07 million tons (- 10.41%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 104.70 million tons, down 3.46 million tons (- 3.20%) from the previous value; the sugar import volume is 13 million tons, up 8 million tons (160.00%) from the previous value [10]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the futures price of Y

铁矿石期货周报 供 应 压 力 增 加 ， 短 期 铁 水 有 望 维 持 高 位 徐艺丹 投资咨询资格：Z0020017 期货从业资格：F03125507 联系方式：020-88818017 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 快速开户 微信公众号 短期观点 品种 主要观点 本周操作建议 上周操作建议 供应：本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运-157.3万吨至3352.7万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2842.1万吨，环比减少 77.3万吨。澳洲发运量2059.3万吨，环比减少110.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1797.1万吨，环比减少94.9万吨。巴西发运 量782.8万吨，环比增加33.2万吨。45港口到港量2384.5万吨，环比减少224.8万吨。 需求：日均铁水产量242.18万吨，环比+0.57万吨；高炉开工率83.82%，环比+0.41%；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.79%， 环比+0.21个百分点；钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比+0.87%。 铁矿石（I） 库存：截至6月19日，45港库存13894.16万吨，环比-38.98万吨；日均疏港量环比回升，本周到港量回落叠加疏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are rising due to the Israel-Iran conflict, and short - term volatility may be severe. Pure benzene prices have upward potential due to high - level support from crude oil, but the supply - demand contradiction of sluggish destocking in ports may limit the upside. Styrene supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and its supply - demand may gradually weaken. Short - term geopolitical disturbances are the main pricing factors, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. In the medium term, there is pressure on high prices, and high - short opportunities in resonance with crude oil can be watched [4]. - Futures strategy: Stay on the sidelines for the time being and watch for high - short opportunities in resonance with crude oil in the medium term. Options strategy: Stay on the sidelines [4]. Summary by Directory Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: There are multiple pure benzene, pure benzene downstream (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream production plans in different regions and enterprises in 2025, with specific production capacity and production time [6]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many pure benzene production enterprises have device maintenance plans from May to July 2025, with planned new production capacity of 133 million tons/year and downstream new production capacity of about 40 million tons/year; planned shutdown involves production capacity of 446 million tons/year, and downstream shutdown production capacity is about 589 million tons/year. Overall, supply will decrease by 23.9 million tons and demand will decrease by 34.1 million tons, showing inventory accumulation [8][9]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Profits**: Toluene disproportionation profit is low, and there are various price difference data of cracking and related products over the years [15]. - **Pure Benzene Price**: There are price data of East China pure benzene, far - month price, international quotes, and price difference data over the years. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China remain at a high level, and domestic production and imports lead to continuous inventory accumulation [20][26][31]. - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The weighted operating rate has increased with the resumption of styrene production. Styrene profit has rebounded significantly, while the profits of other products are still weak [36][43]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: There are price and price difference data of styrene spot and futures over the years [53]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene monthly and weekly production, operating rate, and profit data are provided. China is gradually changing from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene [58][70]. - **Styrene Inventory**: Port inventory has decreased again, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [71]. - **Styrene Downstream**: High production capacity growth rate intensifies competition, and high production supports styrene demand. However, prices follow energy fluctuations, and profits are under pressure. High production leads to high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. Terminal exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy stimulation [76][81][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metal prices have stabilized with a rising central level. Currently, hot-rolled coil production has rebounded, and apparent demand remains high with a small decline. However, both supply and demand of rebar are weak, and apparent demand has declined. Steel and billet exports remain high, digesting production. It is still the off - season for steel, and demand is difficult to improve marginally. Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. In the short term, inventory remains low, and the pressure on steel mills to cut production is small. Iron element costs are supported, but carbon elements are still weak. Later, steel prices will follow the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Operationally, consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, iron ore has obvious upside pressure due to the expected decline in molten iron, supply increase, and administrative reduction. However, the short - term decline in molten iron is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. During the off - season when demand weakens, the iron ore price range may shift downward, with a reference range of 670 - 720 yuan. Although the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, it still has some short - term resilience. The average molten iron output in June is expected to remain above 2.4 million tons. Pay attention to the change in molten iron output in July [3]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose. With the sharp rise in crude oil driving the expectation of an energy crisis and the news of production restrictions in the production areas, the coal - coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing an opportunity for hedging short positions. Unilaterally, it is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on short - term rebounds. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The spot fundamentals of coking coal have improved. Affected by the risk of geopolitical conflicts and the sharp rise in crude oil, coking coal has followed the upward trend, and the basis has been repaired. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on short - term dips. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Affected by the continuous weakening of demand, prices remained weak, and manufacturers' losses continued to intensify. Although manufacturers' inventories decreased, the absolute value was still high. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved. In the short term, the stabilization of costs gives some room for price increases, but the sustainability is questionable. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese continued its rebound trend last week. Although its absolute valuation is low, its supply is still relatively loose. Supply increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Under the off - season demand, supply pressure still exists. Manufacturers' inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decline. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. Some regions' spot prices increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. For example, the rebar spot price in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, while some steelmaking costs decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions decreased to varying degrees. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 13 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 9.7 tons to 868.5 tons, a 1.1% increase. Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons, a 2.2% increase, with converter production increasing by 6.2 tons and electric furnace production decreasing by 1.6 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 tons to 1338.9 tons, a 1.2% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 tons to 551.1 tons, a 1.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 tons to 340.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 9.7 tons, an 8.2% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 16.1 tons to 884.2 tons, a 1.9% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 0.8 tons to 219.2 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 10.8 tons to 330.7 tons, a 3.4% increase [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for some varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased by 46.8 yuan/ton, a 49.8% decrease [3]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly due to a decrease in shipments from Australia. The arrival volume at ports decreased slightly, mainly due to a decrease in the arrival of Brazilian ore. Based on shipment data, the average future arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The average daily ore - removal volume at 45 ports increased by 12.3 to 313.6 tons, a 4.1% increase [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13894.16 tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 137.6 to 8936.2 tons, a 1.6% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2 to 19 days, a 9.5% decrease [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, while the spot market was weakly stable. The third - round spot price cut of coke was implemented on June 6, with a reduction of 70/75 yuan/ton, and the cumulative reduction was 120/135 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel mills proposed a fourth - round price cut on the 20th, which is expected to be implemented on the 23rd [6]. - **Supply**: Recently, environmental protection inspection teams have entered multiple northern provinces. Affected by environmental protection and other factors such as maintenance, the supply of coking in the northern region has tightened, and the operation rate of independent coking plants has declined [6]. - **Demand**: In June, molten iron production continued to remain above 2.4 million tons per day, but the blast furnace operation rate decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued the trend of peaking and falling [6]. - **Inventory**: Coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decrease, and steel mill inventories also decreased. Downstream steel mills continued the rhythm of active de - stocking, and overall inventories were at a medium level [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, and the spot market was weakly stable. The decline of domestic coking coal prices slowed down, and the prices of some coal mines rebounded slightly, but the overall market was still weak [6]. - **Supply**: In the Inner Mongolia region, many coal mines stopped production due to environmental protection and other factors. In the Shanxi region, supply decreased significantly due to accidents and other factors, and coal mines began to hold prices. Overall, the production of coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. For imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure was still obvious. The import profit of seaborne coal continued to be inverted, and there was a recent price correction [6]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of coking plants began to decline, and the molten iron production of blast furnaces continued the trend of peaking and falling. Downstream users mainly replenished their inventories on - demand. Although the downstream demand still had some resilience, the overall demand was weakening [6]. - **Inventory**: Coal mine inventories continued to accumulate at a high level, and there was pressure to reduce prices for sales. Port inventories began to decline from a high level, and downstream users controlled their inventories. The overall inventory was at a medium level [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The cost of production in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Shaanxi. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The export of ferrosilicon may still maintain some resilience, but the marginal growth space is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon manufacturers decreased, but the absolute value was still high. The average available days of downstream ferrosilicon increased slightly [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The manganese ore supply and demand situation changed, with an increase in the shipment volume and a decrease in the arrival volume at ports [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The demand for ferromanganese from metal iron has not improved significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese manufacturers increased, and the average available days of downstream ferromanganese decreased slightly [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking of stock index futures positions, including the overall position changes and key changes in the top 20 seats of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog IF Futures - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 20, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 29,611 lots, while the position of the main contract switched to 2509, increasing by 81,541 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,254 lots. Guoxin Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 861 lots, and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 4,003 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,456 lots. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,098 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 2,686 lots [7]. IH Futures - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 20, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 11,156 lots, while the position of the main contract switched to 2509, increasing by 25,313 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 8,301 lots. Orient Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 731 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 2,371 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 9,964 lots. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 731 lots, and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 2,877 lots [12]. IC Futures - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 20, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 19,814 lots, while the position of the main contract switched to 2507, increasing by 37,469 lots [17]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 36,042 lots. Orient Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 939 lots, and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 6,371 lots [18]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,675 lots. Orient Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,282 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 2,072 lots [19]. IM Futures - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 20, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 28,914 lots, while the position of the main contract switched to 2509, increasing by 89,544 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,109 lots. Guoxin Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1,706 lots, and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 7,154 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 60,214 lots. Guoxin Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,875 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 2,236 lots [25].