1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of asphalt is affected by the weak cost side due to the six - consecutive - day decline in crude oil prices, while its own supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil and show an oscillating trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In August, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is 2.41 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 130,000 tons (5%) and a year - on - year increase of 490,000 tons (25%). Imported asphalt from South Korea has a reduced arrival volume, supporting the increase in import prices [3]. - **Demand**: The release of demand is lower than expected. Rain in some northern regions has hindered rigid demand, and the actual trading atmosphere in the southern market is weak. This week's shipment volume is 418,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.2% [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic refinery inventory is in a destocking state, especially in North China. The social inventory has a slight accumulation, with the most obvious accumulation in East China [3]. - **Cost**: International oil prices have declined across the board due to multiple negative factors, and the price of US oil has fallen below the key level of $65 [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will follow the trend of crude oil, showing an oscillating trend [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should focus on the oscillating trend, and for arbitrage, pay attention to the 9 - 12 reverse spread [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China, South China, and other regions, as well as the import prices from South Korea and Singapore [5][12]. 3.3 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: The report shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread and the spread between asphalt and coking materials [17][18]. - **Basis**: It presents the basis data of asphalt in main regions such as South China, East China, and Shandong [21]. 3.4 Supply - **Scheduled Production**: In August, the production plans of different refinery groups vary. The planned production of local refineries has increased year - on - year and month - on - month [3]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of asphalt in different regions and time periods [34][37]. - **Maintenance Loss**: It presents the weekly and monthly maintenance loss data of asphalt in China [41]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The report shows the production gross profit data of asphalt in Shandong and the price, premium, and port inventory data of diluted asphalt [45][48]. 3.6 Inventory - **Refinery Inventory**: This week, the domestic refinery inventory is in a destocking state, especially in North China [3]. - **Refinery Inventory Rate**: It presents the inventory rate data of refineries in different regions and time periods [56]. - **Social Inventory**: This week, the domestic social inventory has a slight accumulation, with the most obvious accumulation in East China [3]. 3.7 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: This week's shipment volume is 418,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.2%. The shipment volume in Shandong has decreased significantly, while that in East China has increased significantly [3]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It presents the operating rate data of downstream industries such as road - modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [65][69].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The spot price of shipping has peaked, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of prices until the end of October. The shipping companies are facing increasing pressure to secure cargo, and the current spot freight rates have entered a rapid downward phase. The freight rates on the European route are expected to break through the 2000 mark in September [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1490, a previous value of 1551, and a decline of -3.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1201, a previous value of 1233, and a decline of -2.59%. Other routes such as SCFI - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.2 Shipping Contracts - **Contract Price Changes**: Contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., show different price changes. For example, EC2506 has a price increase of 0.17% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508 show different changes. For example, the position of EC2606 decreased by 8 [5]. - **Contract Month - to - Month Differences**: The month - to - month differences such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 also show changes. For example, the 10 - 12 month - to - month difference increased by 18.8 [5]. 3.3 Market News - **Tariff and Diplomatic News**: The US and China need to decide whether to extend the current tariff suspension agreement by August 12. Trump threatens to impose higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 [6]. - **Shipping Route News**: South Korea will start pilot operations on the "Northern Sea Route" in 2026. Three Chinese small - scale carriers will provide several voyages on this route in late summer 2025 [6]. - **US Import News**: The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report shows that US imports in the last four months of 2025 will decline significantly year - on - year, mainly due to pre - stocking in late 2024 and the pre - peak before the tariff takes effect this year [6]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Market Trend**: The market is in a volatile state [7]. - **Spot Price Analysis**: The spot price has peaked and is in a downward phase. Shipping companies on the European route are under great pressure to secure cargo, and the spot freight rates are expected to decline further [8]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - **Strategy Suggestion**: Short the October contract on rallies (take profit gradually as the recent decline is large), and hold the long - December and short - April spread [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily Report [4] - Date: August 11, 2025 [5] - Author: Baishuna from the Macro - Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Group 2: Price and Position Data Price Data - On August 8, 2025, COMEX silver was at $3394.74, London gold spot at $787.80, London silver spot at $38.57, COMEX gold at $9278.00, AG (T + D) at $783.43, AU (T + D) at $9238.00, AU2510 at $3499.20, and AG2510 at $38.30. Compared with August 7, the price increases were 0.2%, 0.5%, 1.2%, 0.6%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively [5]. - The price differences and their increases or decreases between different markets and varieties are also presented, such as the gold internal - external market (TD - London) spread, COMEX gold - silver ratio, etc. For example, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) spread on August 8 was - 4.37 yuan/gram, with a 5.1% increase from the previous day [5]. Position Data - COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions, gold and silver ETF holdings, and their changes are provided. For example, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions on August 8 were 237050, a - 11.50% change from the previous day [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Index Data Inventory Data - COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories and their changes are given. For example, COMEX silver inventory on August 8 was 506492427 troy ounces, a - 0.22% change from the previous day [5]. Market Index Data - Data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate, the S&P 500, NYMEX crude oil, the US dollar index, and VIX are presented, along with their changes. For example, the 2 - year US Treasury yield on August 8 was 7.14, a - 8.57% change from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on August 8 that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15, stating that the Ukraine situation may be resolved soon [5]. - Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor, and the St. Louis Fed President supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged last week [5]. - The US Customs and Border Protection initially ruled that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars should be taxed, but the Trump administration will issue a new policy clarifying that gold bar imports should not be taxed [5]. - The Israeli government approved a plan to occupy the Gaza Strip after a 10 - hour discussion [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis Short - term Logic - On August 8, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.56% to 787.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.84% to 9278 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Short - term factors affecting precious metal prices include potential additional US tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, nominations of Federal Reserve officials, China's central bank's continuous gold purchases for 9 months, upcoming US - Russia leader meetings, and the clarification of gold bar import tariffs. The short - term upward momentum of gold prices may be limited, but the Fed's high probability of cutting interest rates in August and tariff uncertainties are expected to support gold prices at a high level. Silver prices may continue to be strong in the short - term but should be cautious about the upside in the medium - term [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - The Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, and the medium - and long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market is waiting for the peace - talk information between the US and a European country. International oil prices are weak, and PTA has insufficient cost support. With a weak supply - demand structure, the PTA market declined slightly today. The PTA supply has shrunk, and port inventories have decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, but alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. PTA basis has weakened, and market replenishment willingness has declined [2] - The coal price has rebounded, driving up the ethylene glycol price. However, the macro - sentiment has weakened slightly, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may significantly affect the market. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. Polyester production and sales have weakened, downstream weaving profits have shrunk, and terminal loads have significantly declined, which is a negative impact on the market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 501.0 yuan/barrel on August 7th to 489.8 yuan/barrel on August 8th, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased from 1047.2 yuan/ton to 1124.6 yuan/ton, a rise of 77.39 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2876 to 1.3159, an increase of 0.0283. The PTA main - contract futures price dropped from 4688 yuan/ton to 4684 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price dropped from 4690 yuan/ton to 4670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 150.6 yuan/ton to 191.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 41.2 yuan/ton. The futures - based processing fee increased from 163.6 yuan/ton to 205.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 42.2 yuan/ton. The PTA main - contract basis increased from (20) to (18), an increase of 2.0. The PTA warehouse - receipt quantity remained unchanged at 33459 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 840 to 831, a decrease of 9. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 259 to 261, an increase of 2 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main - contract futures price dropped from 4396 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (90.51) yuan/ton to (89.70) yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price dropped from 4486 to 4465, a decrease of 21.0. The MEG main - contract basis decreased from 76 to 73, a decrease of 3.0 [2] 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 78.11%. PTA operating rate dropped from 76.09% to 74.50%, a decrease of 1.59%. MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 58.15%. Polyester load remained unchanged at 87.09% [2] 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price dropped from 6665 to 6660, a decrease of 5.0. POY cash flow increased from (98) to (79), an increase of 19.0. FDY150D/96F price dropped from 6965 to 6960, a decrease of 5.0. FDY cash flow increased from (298) to (279), an increase of 19.0. DTY150D/48F price dropped from 7910 to 7890, a decrease of 20.0. DTY cash flow increased from (23) to (49), an increase of 4.0. Polyester filament production and sales increased from 38% to 40%, an increase of 2% [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6550. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 137 to 161, an increase of 24.0. Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 46% to 57%, an increase of 11% [2] - **Polyester Chips**: Semi - bright chip price dropped from 5805 to 5795, a decrease of 10.0. Chip cash flow increased from (58) to (44), an increase of 14.0. Chip production and sales decreased from 92% to 89%, a decrease of 3% [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 720 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw - material logistics [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Steel**: Tangshan's mild production - limitation policy may not have a significant overall impact. The supply shortage may be compensated by non - restricted areas. The steel price is temporarily stable, with the lower support at the EAF valley - electricity cost. The price upside depends on market sentiment towards the policy. Exports are still high but showing a marginal decline [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Despite policy uncertainties, the anti - involution logic supports prices. Market sentiment is volatile. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, indicating resilient supply - demand. However, high industry inventories remain a concern [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sixth round of coke price hikes is expected to be implemented, but downstream replenishment is almost complete. The implementation of over - production inspection policies is uncertain, leading to repeated anti - involution trading. The far - month contracts are favored, but the near - month contracts face pressure. The market is currently in a volatile state [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The anti - involution sentiment is rising again. The iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will limit price increases. The 01 contract has support and may rise after adjustment [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices**: On August 8, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3286 yuan/ton (- 0.70%), HC2601 at 3429 yuan/ton (- 0.58%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3213 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), HC2510 at 3428 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: On August 8, RB2510 - 2601 was - 73 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 1 yuan/ton, etc [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On August 8, the coil - to - rebar spread was 215 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.07, etc [1]. Spot Market - **Prices**: On August 8, Shanghai rebar was 3330 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3440 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc [1]. - **Basis**: On August 8, the HC主力 basis was 12 yuan/ton, the RB主力 basis was 117 yuan/ton, etc [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Steel**: Focus on the EAF valley - electricity cost support. For arbitrage, consider long positions in the 01 coil - to - rebar spread. There are opportunities for partial profit - taking in basis trading [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp futures are expected to run strongly [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 8, 2025, SP2601 was 5436 with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly increase of 0.37%; SP2605 was 5414 with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 0.85%; SP2509 was 5162 with a daily and weekly decrease of 0.46% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 with no daily or weekly change; Russian coniferous pulp was 5180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 2.26%; broad - leaf pulp Golden was 4080 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.97% [1] - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: Foreign quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month to 720 dollars, and its import cost decreased by 2.68% to 5884; Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% to 500 dollars, and its import cost decreased by 10.60% to 4101; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 620 dollars, and its import cost remained at 5073 [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09% compared to May; the shipment volume of pulp to China in May was 140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.30% compared to April. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp had minor fluctuations [1] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 204.8 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period, a 2.7% decrease. The inventory showed a destocking trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory also had some fluctuations [1][3] - **Demand**: The output of major finished papers increased slightly this week, but the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [3] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 8, 2025, the quantile level of Russian needle pulp basis was 0.736, and that of Silver Star basis was 0.912. The quantile level of import profit for coniferous pulp Silver Star was 0.546, and for broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 0.613 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Report Core View - The focus in the market currently is on mine - end disturbances. If there is a short - term shutdown for rectification and then resumption after the mine certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supply from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. There may be a further push to raise the futures price from a market sentiment perspective, but the previous price increase has already factored in the shutdown impact, so the expected upside is limited. If the mine certificates are renewed smoothly, the supply side remains in a loose pattern. Given large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, small downstream production increase, the futures price may correct downward and return to the fundamental logic. Due to uncertainty and market rumors, investors are advised to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan [1] Lithium Futures - Lithium carbonate 2508 futures contract closed at 75,300 yuan, up 7.57%; lithium carbonate 2509 at 76,640 yuan, up 7.82%; lithium carbonate 2510 at 76,900 yuan, up 7.67%; lithium carbonate 2511 at 76,960 yuan, up 7.73%; lithium carbonate 2512 at 77,120 yuan, up 7.38% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 777 yuan with a daily increase of 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) at 1,120 yuan with a daily increase of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) at 1,800 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) at 5,675 yuan with a daily increase of 125 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) at 6,650 yuan with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,850 yuan with a daily increase of 280 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,320 yuan with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,995 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,585 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is - 5,060 yuan, with a change of - 3,860 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 260 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2,271 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 18,829 tons, with an increase of 2,386 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 69,521 yuan, with a profit of 1,349 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, with a profit of - 8,388 yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil production increases, suppressing the cost side, leading to LPG prices running at a low level. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the international oil and gas supply is expected to be loose, suppressing the raw material cost price. Although the recent resumption of PDH has increased and the deep - processing of C4 has maintained stable operation, the terminal demand remains weak, and the overall fundamentals are loose. The basis is at a high level, and the valuation of the main contract is suppressed by the warrants, with the reverse spread reaching the bottom [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 3,820 - 4,000 yuan/ton. The sharp drop in August CP led to a significant decline in import costs, which was negative for the futures and spot markets. International crude oil prices fell, causing a decline in the energy - chemical sector. The main LPG contract reached a low for the year. As the decline in spot prices was less than that of futures, the basis strengthened. The weekly average basis was 518.6 yuan/ton in East China, 515.2 yuan/ton in South China, and 651.2 yuan/ton in Shandong. The lowest deliverable location was South China [6] 3.2 Factors Affecting LPG 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG decreased slightly. The commercial volume of domestic LPG decreased, with the volume of domestic - use gas at 210,000 tons (3.62%), industrial gas at 202,200 tons (- 0.39%), and ether - after C4 at 74,000 tons (- 0.56%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A company in the Northwest resumed operation, a company in Shandong carried out maintenance, and a refinery in Central China increased internal supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - The combustion demand remained weak, and downstream procurement demand was low. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the poor performance of the oil product market increased the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises, weakening the demand for ether - after C4. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH increased the operating rate, but the off - season demand for intermediate - link propylene and terminal PP was average, and the fundamentals were loose, with other downstream profits in varying degrees of loss [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 175,800 tons (- 2.77%), and the port inventory was 321,620 tons (61%). This week, the inventory in various domestic regions remained generally stable with minor adjustments. The inventory in South China and Northeast China increased slightly due to import impacts and low demand, while the inventory in East China and Central China decreased through resource shipping and low - price sales. Although the number of arriving ships at the port decreased slightly this period, the unloading volume increased compared with last week, and the import resources were sufficient [4] 3.2.4 Basis and Positions - The weekly average basis was 555.4 yuan/ton in East China, 547.6 yuan/ton in South China, and 40 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warrants was 10,179 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was East China [4] 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 73.84%, 53%, and 50% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 201 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 390 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 2.59%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was - 478 yuan/ton. The basis level was high, and the main futures contract was expected to reach the bottom [4] 3.2.7 Other Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and international oil and gas prices are fluctuating downward. Trump signed an executive order on August 6, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US, raising the overall tariff level to 50%. The 90 - day tariff relaxation period is approaching, and China - US tariff renegotiations are imminent [4] 3.3 Investment and Trading Strategies - The investment view is bearish. The trading strategy suggests temporarily waiting and watching for unilateral trading, paying attention to the positive spread of far - month contracts for arbitrage, and shorting PDH profits by going long on PG and shorting PL. Attention should be paid to China - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and changes in downstream demand [4] 3.4 Device Maintenance Plans - The report provides the maintenance plans of major refineries, LPG production devices, and PDH devices in China in 2025, including information such as refinery names, locations, maintenance devices, processing capacities, start and end times, etc. [12][13][14] 3.5 Market Data Charts - The report includes a large number of market data charts, covering the closing price monitoring of energy - chemical products, LPG futures prices, inter - month and cross - month spreads, domestic and international LPG - related price trends, inventory, production, consumption, and other data [3][10][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bearish Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoint of the Report - International crude oil prices have been declining, and the price of BR (Butadiene Rubber) has been consolidating. The supply of butadiene is affected by various factors such as device shutdowns and restarts, and the demand for rubber tires is relatively stable. The inventory of butadiene and BR has increased, and the profit of the rubber industry is under pressure. Geopolitical factors also have a negative impact on the market. Overall, the market for butadiene rubber is expected to be bearish with oscillations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton this period. As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton [4] 2. Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 102,500 tons (-0.87%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Dongming Petrochemical were shut down, while some devices were restarted. The overall production decreased [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: In July, some butadiene rubber devices were shut down, and some were restarted. It is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will continue to increase in August [3] 3. Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel Tires**: The replacement market price has no obvious adjustment this period. Some brands launched special - price patterns at the beginning of the month, and the actual market price is stable [3] - **All - steel Tires**: In August, the market price is mostly stable. Some brands planned to raise prices, but other enterprises did not follow up. The economic tire specifications are in short supply, and the inventory of mid - to high - end products is relatively sufficient [3] 4. Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.35%. The overall inventory of enterprises has little fluctuation, and there is no obvious inventory pressure recently [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly this period [3] 5. Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, and Profit Analysis - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 115 yuan/ton, in East China is 35 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,035 yuan/ton (41.33%), the NR - BR spread is 890 yuan/ton (23.61%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.97% [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation and carbon four extraction, as well as the production profit and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber, are all under pressure [3] 6. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which leads to a loose supply of crude oil and a weak demand in the refined oil market. International oil and gas prices are oscillating downward. Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on Indian goods exported to the US, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation is approaching [3] 7. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: The maintenance of devices in Shandong and South China has a positive impact on the supply price of butadiene, but the short - term price change is small. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber remain the same, with traders reducing inventory and factories increasing inventory. The overall inventory level changes little, and the market trading volume is average [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be oscillating. For arbitrage, pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to be concerned about include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for September sales to Asia to a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up $1 from August, citing tight supply and strong demand [1] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, due to an increase in crude oil exports [2] - Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin made "significant progress", but the possibility of further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue was not ruled out, and Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand [3] - Russian President Putin and former U.S. President Trump have reached an intention to meet, and the summit is likely to be held next week [3] - In the asphalt market, prices in North China and Shandong decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. The asphalt price in Shandong and Hebei may still have a slight downward space [4] Summary by Related Content Crude Oil Market - **Saudi Price Adjustment**: On August 6th, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its September - bound Arab Light crude oil to Asian customers to a $3.20 - per - barrel premium over Oman/Dubai crude, up $1 from August [1] - **U.S. Inventory Report**: As of August 1st, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, with exports increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.3 million barrels per day [2] - **Political Uncertainty**: Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin had "significant progress", but further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue were not excluded, and Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ agreed to increase September oil production by 547,000 barrels per day, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - **Russia - U.S. Summit**: Putin and Trump are likely to hold a summit next week [3] Asphalt Market - **Price Changes**: North China and Shandong's asphalt prices decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while other regions' prices were stable. The price in Shandong and Hebei may still decline slightly [4] - **Demand and Inventory**: In the northwest, demand was boosted by key projects; in the south, demand was delayed by rain and funds, and social inventory needed to be digested [4]