1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and rebounded, with industrial products showing divergent trends and most agricultural products rebounding. The main reasons include the lower - than - expected US non - farm payroll data, the expectation of domestic anti - involution policies, and the impact of US trade policies [3]. - Overseas, the US "equivalent tariff" has come into effect, the US ISM services index is low, Fed officials have signaled rate cuts, and OPEC+ will increase production. In the domestic market, export growth is under pressure in the second half of the year, and inflation data shows a pattern of stable core CPI repair and PPI at the bottom [3]. - In the short term, market sentiment will still fluctuate, and commodities are expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rebounded this week. Industrial products diverged, and agricultural products mostly rebounded due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar index, domestic policy expectations, and the impact of US tariffs [3]. - **Overseas**: The US "equivalent tariff" is in effect, the ISM services index is low, Fed officials signaled rate cuts, and OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from September. The crude oil market may remain volatile and weak [3]. - **Domestic**: In July, exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly. However, exports will face slowdown pressure in the second half of the year. July inflation data showed that CPI may improve but remain low, and PPI will gradually improve with difficulty in turning positive this year [3]. - **Commodity Views**: The short - term market sentiment will fluctuate, and commodities will move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations and the Russia - Ukraine situation [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Tariffs**: The US "equivalent tariff" is in effect, with a 90 - day buffer period for China and the US. Non - US developed economies may face greater export shocks, and the impact on China's exports is complex. Future 232 industry tariffs may involve semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key minerals [3]. - **ISM Services Index**: The US July ISM services index was 50.1, lower than expected and the previous value, close to the low point in May and the lowest level since June 2024 [3][11]. - **Fed Rate - cut Expectations**: Three Fed officials signaled rate cuts. Market expectations for a September rate cut have increased, especially considering the possible influence of Trump's appointment of Fed governors [3]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels from September. The market may remain volatile and weak in the fourth quarter due to supply surplus and trade policy uncertainties [3][17]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Trade Data**: In July, exports and imports increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus narrowed slightly. However, exports will face slowdown pressure in the second half of the year due to factors such as high US tariffs and the end of some trade benefits [3]. - **Inflation Data**: In July, CPI was 0%, better than expected, and PPI was - 3.6%, slightly lower than expected. CPI may improve but remain low, and PPI will gradually improve with difficulty in turning positive this year [3][24]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industry开工率**: As of August 8, the PTA开工率 was 75.24%, POY开工率 was 86.2%, and the weaving industry开工率 was 56% [32]. - **Other Data**: In July, some data such as the proportion of a certain indicator was 34.72%, 64.47%, 33.66%, and 1.01%. There were also data on sales volume and price changes [39].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.12% at 3,635.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26%, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.38%, the Northern Securities 50 declined 1.22%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 tumbled 1.39%, the Wind All - A fell 0.22%, the Wind 8500 dropped 0.25%, and the CSI A500 declined 0.24%. A - share trading volume was 1.74 trillion yuan, compared with 1.85 trillion yuan the previous day [10]. - **Specific Index Data**: The Shanghai 50 closed at 2,789.1744, down 0.33%, with a trading volume of 82.805 billion yuan and a turnover of 3.892 billion; the CSI 300 closed at 4,104.9669, down 0.24%, with a trading volume of 308.508 billion yuan and a turnover of 17.317 billion; the CSI 1000 closed at 6,838.1299, down 0.35%, with a trading volume of 381.545 billion yuan and a turnover of 25.147 billion [4]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation | Index | Put Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Call Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | PCR | Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai 50 | 1.08 | 1.86 | 0.58 | 7.47 | 4.76 | 2.71 | 0.57 | | CSI 300 | 3.01 | 4.93 | 0.61 | 20.94 | 11.95 | 8.99 | 0.75 | | CSI 1000 | 10.09 | 11.48 | 0.88 | 29.37 | 14.04 | 15.33 | 1.09 | [4] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50**: Historical volatility is presented with different percentile values and current values. The next - month at - the - money implied volatility has a volatility smile curve [8][9]. - **CSI 300**: Similar to the Shanghai 50, historical volatility and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility's smile curve are provided [9]. - **CSI 1000**: Historical volatility and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility's smile curve are also shown [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美元指数回落，有色板块反弹 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-8-11 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | ...

2012 31 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC: | 1 | PVC | PVC | 2 | PVC | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 79.46% | 2.62% | 4.73% | 78.65% | 2.62% | 0.78% | 81.49% | 2.50% | 15.73% | 3 | PVC | 4.7355 | 1.467 | | 1 | 2 | PVC | 33% | 0.48% | 13.56% | 3 | PVC | | | | | | | 0.19% | 21 | 34% | 4 | PVC | 37.29% | PVC | 8-9 | | | | | | | 5 | 2025 | 6 | PVC | 175.33 | 5 | 8.09 | 1-6 | 1017.20 | 3.03% | PVC | | | | 1 | 8 | 7 | PVC | 7.49% | 77.63 | 17.52% | 70.82 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "oscillating", with logs expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 800 - 840 yuan/m³ under the influence of rising foreign quotes and improving domestic demand. The trading strategy suggests spot registration for warehouse - receipt delivery, with attention to domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: From August 4 - 10, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 18 Chinese ports was 14, an increase of 8 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 133%. The total arrival volume was about 425,000 cubic meters, an increase of 204,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 92% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the available days of national log port inventory were 49.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20% and a month - on - month increase of 2.28% [3]. - **Trade Profit**: After the increase in foreign quotes, the profit inversion of traders intensified. As of August 8, 2025, the trader's profit was - 55 yuan/m³, with a slight week - on - week increase [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 790 - 800 yuan/m³, equivalent to a delivery cost of 820 - 830 yuan/m³ [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, log futures oscillated. The ebbing of commodity sentiment and the delivery cost calculated based on the import price formed the upper pressure, while the rising August foreign quotes and the decline in domestic port inventory provided some positive factors. It oscillated in the range of 820 - 840 yuan/m³. As of August 8, 2025, the total log futures contract positions were 31,497 lots, a 15.7% increase from last week; the positions of the main log futures contract 2509 were 20,650 lots, a 5.4% increase from last week [6][11]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine in Shandong were 720/750/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 730/790/930 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 720/770/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small/medium/large - grade A radiata pine were 750/800/860 yuan/m³ [17]. 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.1768 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 15.73%. From January to June 2025, the total coniferous log imports were about 12.3364 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.97%. In June 2025, China's imports of coniferous logs from New Zealand were about 1.6735 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year increase of 37.37%. From January to June 2025, the imports from New Zealand were about 9.2485 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. In June 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.6068 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year increase of 34.07%. From January to June 2025, the imports of radiata pine were about 9.0189 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.55% [21]. - **Shipping and Shipment Volume**: From August 2 - 8, 2025, a total of 10 ships with 360,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 8 ships with 290,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [24]. - **Trade Profit**: The increase in foreign quotes intensified the profit inversion of traders. As of July 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 795 - 805 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 57 yuan/m³. In July 2025, the AWG price at New Zealand port warehouses was 117 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 108 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 7.6 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [31]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, flat week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The North American timber inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.26%. The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, flat week - on - week. In terms of provincial inventory, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04% from last week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 960,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 5.55% from last week [34]. - **Outbound Volume**: As of August 1, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.04%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.46%. The average daily outbound volume of logs in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.69% and a month - on - month increase of 7.91% [38]. - **Downstream**: As of August 8, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1270 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1260 yuan/m³, flat week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 24 yuan/m³, a decrease of 15 yuan/m³ week - on - week [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The CBOT currently has no weather premium, and the Sino-US trade policy has not eased, putting pressure on US soybeans, but the downside space is expected to be limited. Under the current Sino-US policy, the Brazilian premium is expected to be strong, and with the expected increase in import costs, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the results of the August USDA supply and demand report and the situation of domestic Argentine soybean meal imports [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Supply - This week, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 69%, still at a high level, and the weather in the producing areas will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean pressure drop in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory; the purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far month under the current Sino-US trade policy [7] Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to be maintained, supporting the demand for feed. However, the policy is oriented to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far-month supply of pigs. The cost-effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the pick-up volume is at a high level. Some areas use wheat to replace corn, reducing the amount of protein used. The far-month trading volume of soybean meal increased this week [8] Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal has slowed down but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [8]

2012 31 2025-08-11 F3071622 Z0014205 F03133773 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 : | 1 | 0.6 | 83 | 0.07 | 10.99 | ; | 2 | 20 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 85.1% | +1.2% | +4.3% | 91.1% | +0.2% | 79.6 | +2.8% | 90.5% | -2.4% | 91.5% | | 1 | 2 | 84.97% | | | | | | | | | 3 | 58.9% | 3 | 2025 | 6 | 49.27% | | | | | | 1 | 2 | 20 | 46.17 | ( | ) | 8.84% | 17.08% | | | | 26.56% | 2.87% | | | | | | | | | | 1 | -8 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 256 | / | 28% | | | | | | | | 1 | 2 | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 新季玉米卖压预期，盘面重心下移 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-08-11 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:新季玉米卖压预期，盘面重心下移 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， | （1）余粮趋紧，北港集港量和下海量下滑；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，推算集港约2000-2100元吨；播种面积无明显变化；目前新季玉米长势良好， | | | 中期偏空 | 关注河南旱情影响；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，24/25年度进口谷物供应缩量。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025 年6月，全国工业饲料产量 2767 万吨，环比下降 0.1%，同比增长6.6%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为 36.3%， 同比增长 2.5 个百分点；（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，支撑饲用需求，但国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重，或影响远月供应；（3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 供给端利空因素密集影响，国际油价弱势下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-11 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 主要周度数据变动回顾 | | | | | | 原油主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要油品价格 | SC原油（元/桶) | 489 8 . | 527 9 . | -7 . | 22% | | 原油 | 944182 | 945933 | -0 19% . | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality persists. The near - term prices are constrained by the weak reality, with the oversupply situation continuing. For glass, demand has some resilience but is hard to improve in the off - season, supply is stable, and inventory accumulates significantly. For soda ash, supply returns to a high level, demand weakens, costs provide support, but near - term inventory is large and faces delivery pressure. It is recommended to focus on long positions in the far - month contracts for glass and cash - and - carry arbitrage for soda ash [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The industry start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable [3]. - Demand: Neutral. There is short - term resilience, but overall demand is under pressure in the off - season. Speculative demand fades as prices decline [3]. - Inventory: Bearish. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices are mainly under pressure, and costs provide support [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic is long - term, but the weak reality remains, and overall sentiment fluctuates sharply [3]. - Investment View: Oscillating. Weak reality and strong expectations lead to price oscillations [3]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in far - month contracts for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy. Pay attention to daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [3]. Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Supply increases as maintenance enterprises resume production [4]. - Demand: Bearish. Short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand weakens as prices fall [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. Total manufacturer inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons from last Thursday, or 3.86%. Light soda ash inventory is 717,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,600 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1475 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons [4]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis declined, and the 09 - 01 spread decreased [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. Currently, prices fluctuate significantly, and costs provide support [4]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The anti - involution logic continues, mainly affecting far - month contracts, and sentiment fluctuates sharply [4]. - Investment View: Bearish. Weak reality and strong expectations, with high inventory [4]. - Trading Strategy: No unilateral trading strategy; take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage. Pay attention to soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Glass: This week, prices declined. The main contract closed at 1063 (- 39), and the Shahe spot price was 1104 (- 80) [6]. - Soda Ash: This week, prices declined. The main contract was transferred to the 01 contract, closing at 1332, and the Shahe spot price was 1257 (+ 10) [11]. - Spread/Basis: For soda ash, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis both decreased significantly. For glass, the 09 - 01 spread and the basis also decreased significantly [20]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Stable. The daily output of national float glass is 159,600 tons, remaining stable. The start - up rate is 75.34%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 31st, and the capacity utilization rate is 79.78%, remaining unchanged. One production line restarted this week, and it is estimated that next week's output will remain stable. Glass production profits decline as spot prices fall [23]. - Demand: Resilient. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. Real - estate mid - and back - end completion data is poor. From January to June, the floor area under construction decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, the newly started area decreased by 20.0%, and the completed area decreased by 14.8% [26][27]. - Inventory: Accumulating. Enterprise inventory is 61.847 million heavy cases, a week - on - week increase of 2.348 million heavy cases, or 3.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days are 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period [28]. Soda Ash - Supply: Output returns to a high level. This week's soda ash output is 744,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,900 tons, or 6.41%. Light soda ash output is 321,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons, and heavy soda ash output is 423,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,800 tons. Alkali plant profits decline as soda ash prices weaken [31][32]. - Demand: Weakening. Overall demand is weakening, short - term direct demand is weak, and photovoltaic production continues to decline. Speculative demand fades as prices fall. Manufacturer inventory increases significantly [35].