II GER期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ,教师 策略:近期纸浆供给端扰动再起,然需求端表现为颓势,近期商品市场整体波动剧烈,建议谨慎观望。 本报告中的倡息的颁干公开可获得的资料，国贸部货力戏准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性见完整管数低何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者帮辣的投资目标， 免责 直 务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定优别，据此投资，责任自负、本我告仅向标定客户推进，未经国资期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及同第三 IDE 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 ITC 国贸期货 LE 500 ER 2 12 12 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 入 期 市 市 服 热 线 官 方 网 站 需 有 M 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2026年2月2日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2026年2月2日 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the geopolitical risks in Iran, there are still risks in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA production in January expected to reach a new high, and there are no plans for Spring Festival production cuts. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply remains tight, with the South Korean TDP plant increasing its load and a Middle - Eastern PX plant scheduled to shut down before February, resulting in limited global effective production capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene spread remains around $150. In terms of the profit structure, although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it remains at a healthy level. China's PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts by polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA. Bottle chip profits are expanding, while staple fiber profits are declining [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Indicators Price and Price Change - PTA spot prices dropped from 5280 to 5095, a decrease of 185; MEG domestic prices fell from 3835 to 3722, a decrease of 113; PTA closing prices decreased by 178 from 5270 to 5092; MEG closing prices dropped by 146 from 3913 to 3767; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber prices decreased by 140 from 6685 to 6545; short - fiber basis decreased by 5 from 23 to 18; the 3 - 4 spread increased by 28 from - 56 to - 28; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased by 6 from 240 to 246; the price of 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber remained unchanged at 5300; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased by 140 from 1385 to 1245; East China water bottle chip prices decreased by 126 from 6309 to 6183; hot - filled polyester bottle chip prices decreased by 126 from 6308 to 6183; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip prices decreased by 126 from 6409 to 6283; foreign - market water bottle chip prices decreased by 15 from 845 to 830; bottle chip spot processing fees increased by 70 from 510 to 580; T32S pure polyester yarn prices remained unchanged at 10720; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fees increased by 140 from 4035 to 4175; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S prices remained unchanged at 16800; cotton 328 prices decreased by 125 from 15695 to 15570; polyester - cotton yarn profits increased by 140 from 1435 to 1575; the price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained unchanged at 7300; the cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D increased by 196 from 301 to 497; the price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main short - fiber futures dropped 240 to 6484. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were stable with a slight decline, and traders' prices followed the futures price decline. Downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices, but there was not much trading volume. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright (1.4D) polyester staple fiber was 6410 - 6690 in the East China market (cash on delivery, tax - included, self - pick - up), 6530 - 6810 in the North China market (cash on delivery, tax - included, delivered), and 6550 - 6750 in the Fujian market (cash on delivery, tax - included, delivered) - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6200 - 6350 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The PTA and bottle chip futures prices fluctuated weakly, the cost - side support weakened, most supply - side quotes were lowered, the market spot supply was tight, and downstream end - user demand was mainly for rigid needs, causing the market negotiation center to shift down [2] Operating Rate and Production and Sales - The direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased by 2.07% from 88.84% to 86.77% - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased by 21% from 65% to 44% - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased by 0.32% from 70% to 70.32% - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased by 0.63% from 54.81% to 55.44% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of expected tightening of overseas liquidity, the US dollar index rebounded significantly. Yesterday, all non - ferrous varieties in the domestic commodity market hit the daily limit down, triggering an overall adjustment of risk assets. The stock index dropped significantly due to the linkage between commodities and the stock market and concerns about overseas liquidity tightening [6]. - The current A - share market is dominated by capital and policy. About 70 billion yuan flowed out of broad - based ETFs from January 15th to 27th, presumably due to Central Huijin's reduction to cool the market. The redemption of broad - based ETFs weakened last Thursday and Friday. In the short term, the policy is expected to take flexible measures to support the market. In the long run, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.36 with a 3.65bp increase; DR007 at 1.49 with a - 10.20bp change; GC001 at 1.78 with a 17.50bp increase; GC007 at 1.64 with a 3.00bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a - 0.01bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury at 1.30 with a 0.50bp increase; 5 - year treasury at 1.57 with a - 0.10bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.10bp increase; 10 - year US treasury at 4.26 with a 2.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 75 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 75.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases are due to mature, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 4016, the CSI 300 dropped 2.13% to 4606, the SSE 50 declined 2.07% to 3003, the CSI 500 decreased 3.98% to 8037, and the CSI 1000 fell 3.39% to 7975. The decline of stock index futures was greater than that of the underlying indexes, and the discount widened, indicating a rapid cooling of market sentiment. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2.6069 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors fell, with only power grid equipment and the brewing industry rising [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The trading volume of IF increased by 6.8% to 191,408, and the open interest decreased by 5.6% to 313,881; IH trading volume rose 15.9% to 89,283, and open interest decreased by 2.5% to 119,304; IC trading volume increased 16.4% to 289,004, and open interest decreased by 5.9% to 328,769; IM trading volume rose 11.3% to 307,100, and open interest increased by 1.3% to 414,250 [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: The report provides the premium and discount rates for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [7].

| 5700 | 6000 | 6300 | 6600 | 6900 | Sp. | South Same Same San Same Son | 行情概况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1月30日，A股大小指数分化，沪指跌近1%，有色金属板块现跌停潮；创业板指涨逾1%，CPO概念股大涨。上证指数收跌 | 0.96%报4117.95点，深证成指跌0.66%，创业板指涨1.27%，北证50跌0.29%，科创50涨0.12%，万得全A跌0.93%，万得 | A500跌1.16%，中证A500跌1.19%。A股全天成交2.86万亿元，上日成交3.26万亿元。 | | | | | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告 | 免责 | 不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者持殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建 | 议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【粕类周报】 南美因素扰动，关注巴西卖压 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：南美因素扰动，关注巴西卖压 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）巴西大豆目前处于收割期，根据CONAB，截至1月24日，巴西25/26年度大豆收获进度6.6%，上周值2.3%，去年同期3.2%，同比偏快，但近期巴西国 内由于卡车短缺带来装运延迟，巴西目前新作的预售进度在31%左右，同比偏慢；USDA预估25/26年度巴西大豆产量达1.78亿吨，预期贴水将面临卖压。 | | 供给 | 偏空 | （2）近期阿根廷大豆产区偏干，作物优良率有所下滑，根据BAGE，截至1月21日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆作物状况评级良好占比53%(上周值61%，去年 | | | | 同期值26%)，未来两周降雨有恢复预期；（3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 高位出分歧，锂价大幅回落 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-2 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 投资咨询证号：Z0023460 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：西北减产落地，需求进入淡季 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产7.36 万吨，环比-3.48%；全国开炉210 台，环比-7台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.10 万吨，环比-0.04%，开炉数环比不变。云南地区周产0.43 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比不变。四川地区周产 0万吨。 | | | | （3）12月产量39.71万吨，环比-1.15%，同比+19.75%；1月排产3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 市场情绪显著波动，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：市场情绪显著波动，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，亚洲苯乙烯-苯价差回升至210美元，苯乙烯-石脑油价差达340美元，双双显著走阔，标志着生产商利润已重回可变成本盈亏平衡线以 | | | | 上，刺激开工意愿。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 截至2026年1月26日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：30.5万吨，较上期库存29.7万吨累库0.8万吨，环比增加2.69%；较去年同期库存13.5万吨累库17万 吨，同比上升125.93%。1月19日-1月25日，不完全统计到货1.3吨，提货约0.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite intensified external disturbances, A-shares maintain strong resilience due to sufficient domestic liquidity and positive market sentiment. Short - term index fluctuations are expected to be limited, and long - term investors can gradually build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces** - Economic and corporate profit factors are neutral to bearish. In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3% from 50.1% due to statistical factors and early Spring Festival returns. The non - manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.4% from 50.2%. The production and new order indices decreased by 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points respectively [3]. - Policy factors are neutral. The selling pace of broad - based ETFs has slowed recently. From January 15th, institutions concentrated on reducing broad - based index ETFs, with a cumulative scale of over 700 billion yuan by January 27th. However, the reduction speed decreased significantly on January 28th and 29th [3]. - Overseas factors are bearish. Trump's nomination of Warsh, a well - known hawk, as the new Fed Chairman has raised concerns about tighter overseas liquidity. On Friday, the US dollar rebounded sharply, and gold and silver prices tumbled [3]. - Liquidity factors are neutral to bullish. As of January 29th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 2730.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.94 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy** - The investment view is to go long opportunistically. Although external disturbances have intensified, the index is likely to remain resilient in the short - term. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long opportunistically, with attention to overseas geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index and Futures Weekly Returns** - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 0.08% to 4706.3, the SSE 50 rose 1.13% to 3066.5, the CSI 500 fell 2.56% to 8370.5, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.55% to 8254.9 [5]. - For futures contracts, the IF main contract was flat, the IH main contract rose 3.60%, the IC main contract rose 8.49%, and the IM main contract rose 7.66% [6]. - **Industry Index Market Review** - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, the top - performing sectors last week were communication (5.8%), non - ferrous metals (3.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1.8%), food and beverage (1.6%), and non - bank finance (1%). The underperforming sectors were national defense and military industry (-7.7%), power equipment (-5.1%), automobile (-5.1%), computer (-4.8%), and comprehensive (-4.7%) [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Volume and Open Interest Tracking** - For the CSI 300 futures, the trading volume was 814,420 lots, a 30.21% increase, and the open interest was 332,644 lots, a 10.98% increase [12]. - For the SSE 50 futures, the trading volume was 378,798 lots, a 43.27% increase, and the open interest was 122,366 lots, a 12.50% increase [12]. - For the CSI 500 futures, the trading volume was 1,061,171 lots, a 22.45% increase, and the open interest was 349,459 lots, a 2.41% increase [12]. - For the CSI 1000 futures, the trading volume was 1,257,463 lots, a 18.37% increase, and the open interest was 408,840 lots, a 3.24% increase [12]. - **Contract Premium and Discount** - As of January 30th, the current - month contract IF2602 had an annualized premium of 1.35%; IH2602 had an annualized premium of 0.97%; IC2602 had an annualized premium of 1.39%; IM2602 had an annualized premium of 5.8% [17]. - The next - month contract IF2603 had an annualized premium of 0.74%; IH2603 had an annualized premium of 1.82%; IC2603 had an annualized discount of 0.72%; IM2603 had an annualized premium of 0.52% [17]. - The current - quarter contract IF2606 had an annualized discount of 0.36%; IH2606 had an annualized premium of 1.15%; IC2606 had an annualized discount of 2.2%; IM2606 had an annualized discount of 3.51% [17]. - The next - quarter contract IF2609 had an annualized discount of 1.72%; IH2609 had an annualized discount of 0.69%; IC2609 had an annualized discount of 3.03%; IM2609 had an annualized discount of 4.94% [17]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance** - The spread of CSI 300 - SSE 50 was 1639.8, at the 95.3% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was - 115.7, at the 16.5% historical quantile level [21]. - The ratio of CSI 300/CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 22.5% historical quantile level; the ratio of SSE 50/CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 20% historical quantile level [21]. 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - Liquidity** - This week, the central bank conducted 1761.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1181 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 580.5 billion yuan. There was also 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposit operations were carried out [27]. - Next week, 1761.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases will mature, and 70 billion yuan in 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [27]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading Balance** - As of January 29th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 2730.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.94 billion yuan from the previous week [33]. - As of January 29th, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 9.6%, at the 77% quantile level in the past decade [33]. - The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 3280.6 billion yuan, 2921.5 billion yuan, 2992.3 billion yuan, 3259.4 billion yuan, and 2862.4 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [33]. - As of January 30th, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.24, at the 49.1% quantile level in the past decade [33]. 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macro - Indicators** - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year [36]. - The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from December 2025. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [45]. - **Corporate Earnings** - For major broad - based indices, the year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company and the return on net assets (TTM) showed different trends in different periods. For example, the CSI 300 had a year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 5.22% in Q3 2025, and a return on net assets (TTM) of 9.93% [50]. - For Shenwan primary industry indices, the profitability and return on net assets (TTM) also varied. For instance, the non - bank finance industry had a year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 38.65% in Q3 2025, and a return on net assets (TTM) of 12.94% [51]. 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends** - The government has proposed to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting innovation, and stabilizing the real estate market [55]. - Policies such as optimizing housing purchase restrictions, increasing consumer subsidies, and supporting equipment updates have been introduced to boost the economy [55][57]. 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators** - In December 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points [68]. - The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January 2026 was 56.4, an increase of 3.5 from the previous value [68]. - The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls (seasonally - adjusted) was 50,000 [68]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, including increasing tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [74][76]. 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation Levels** - As of January 23, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1 times, 11.5 times, 38.9 times, and 51.5 times respectively, at the 79%, 78.4%, 79.8%, and 76.1% quantile levels since October 2014 [83]. - **Sector Profitability and Valuation Levels** - Different sectors have different price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their historical quantile levels. For example, the bank sector had a price - to - earnings ratio of 6.3, at the 44% historical quantile level in the past decade, and a price - to - book ratio of 0.5, at the 26% historical quantile level [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "观望" (wait - and - see). Given the current situation where bullish factors on the supply side and bearish factors on the demand side are intertwined, along with significant macro - fluctuations in commodities, it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently influenced by a combination of multiple factors. Supply - side factors are relatively strong, demand - side factors are neutral to bearish, and inventory factors are bearish. Overall, the market lacks clear - cut trends, and it is advisable to wait and see before making investment decisions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Supply factors are strong. APP has raised global pulp prices by $20 per ton, and Suzano has announced a $10 per - ton price increase. APRIL plans unplanned maintenance shutdowns on selected pulp production lines from February to March 2026, with an expected production reduction of about 150,000 tons [4]. - **Demand**: Demand factors are neutral to bearish. The price of household paper has continued to rise this week, while the price of coated paper has fallen. The prices of offset paper and white cardboard have remained stable. Paper production has slightly decreased due to maintenance, and most paper mills have gradually completed pre - Spring Festival inventory preparations [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory factors are bearish. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.169 million tons, a cumulative increase of 101,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.9%. Port inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [4]. - **Investment View**: Given the current situation where bullish supply - side and bearish demand - side factors are intertwined, along with significant macro - fluctuations in commodities, it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side trading, the view is bearish. For arbitrage, it is necessary to monitor overseas pulp mill inventory levels and domestic finished paper prices [4]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Pulp futures have continued to perform weakly this week. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly declined, and the basis of softwood pulp has slightly strengthened. With the lack of positive drivers in the pulp futures market and a weakening of macro sentiment, it is expected to continue its weak performance next week [8]. - **Spot Market**: The price of hardwood pulp has softened, and the basis of softwood pulp has weakened. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) is 5,300 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan per ton. The price of softwood pulp (Buzhen) is 4,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 170 yuan per ton. The price of hardwood pulp (Goldfish) is 4,550 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan per ton [17]. - **External Quotes**: In January, the external quote for softwood pulp increased. Chile's Arauco Company's January softwood pulp offer was $710 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton; the offer for hardwood pulp (Star) was $590 per ton, an increase of $20 per ton; the offer for natural pulp (Venus) was $620 per ton, remaining unchanged. The APP Group has increased pulp prices by $20 per ton in all global markets [19]. - **Open Interest**: As of January 30, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 372,546 lots, a 7% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 277,027 lots, a 6% increase from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - **Imports**: In December, the import volume of hardwood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a 23.99% increase; the softwood pulp import volume was 725,000 tons, a 4.92% increase; the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.765 million tons, a 33.88% increase; the hardwood chip import volume was 1.49 million tons, a 55.69% increase [6]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory has increased, and futures warehouse receipts have slightly increased. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.169 million tons, a cumulative increase of 101,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.9%. The inventory at the delivery warehouse was 104,500 tons, a 4.30% increase [6]. Overseas pulp mill inventory days are basically stable. In late November, the inventory of commodity pulp suppliers in 20 countries was 46 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 49 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days [37]. - **Downstream Demand**: The prices of wood - pulp paper products have remained stable. As of January 30, 2026, the price of offset paper was 4,725 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of coated paper was 4,660 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of household paper was 5,875 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of white cardboard was 4,269 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week. In December 2025, the production volume of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The production of offset paper was 867,400 tons, a 9.7% month - on - month increase and a 15.8% year - on - year increase; the production of coated paper was 409,200 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; the production of household paper was 858,600 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 10.2% year - on - year increase; the production of white cardboard was 1.125 million tons, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 30.4% year - on - year increase [42][51]. - **Overseas Market**: In December 2025, European demand for softwood pulp was 198,600 tons (a 7.1% month - on - month decrease and an 8.3% year - on - year decrease); demand for hardwood pulp was 476,000 tons (an 11.59% month - on - month decrease and a 2.55% year - on - year increase). European pulp inventory decreased. In December 2025, the softwood pulp inventory was 222,800 tons (a 6.93% month - on - month increase and a 0.71% year - on - year increase); the hardwood pulp inventory was 493,800 tons (a 9.59% month - on - month increase and a 15.53% year - on - year increase) [79]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of softwood pulp has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has remained flat. As of January 30, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 0 yuan per ton, an increase of 48 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of Shandong Goldfish was - 750 yuan per ton, an increase of 28 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of January 23, 2026, the pulp 5 - 9 spread was - 44 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the volatile pattern and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend. The current market has both long and short factors. On one hand, institutional allocation demand and the risk - hedging property of RMB assets support the market, especially for ultra - long - term varieties. On the other hand, stock market performance, policy expectations, and changes in supply - demand relations will jointly affect market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, the bond market trend depends on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the subsequent direction of monetary policy. If economic data such as inflation continues to pick up and more regions are able to expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed differentiation between long and short ends. The ultra - long - end center slowly declined with the TL main contract down 0.34% for the week, the 10 - year main contract steadily rose slightly with a weekly gain of about 0.11%, and the medium - and short - term maturities changed little. Market fluctuations were mainly in equities and commodities. The turning point of risk assets on Friday was due to factors like the Iranian situation, new Fed candidates, US policy shutdown risk, and risks in the US stock market during the earnings season. Domestic bonds were less affected by other major asset classes. The central bank continuously released liquidity through reverse repurchase, with a total of 176.15 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations for the week, achieving a net injection after offsetting maturities. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and the weighted average DR007 rate fluctuated around the policy rate, keeping the funds reasonably abundant. The marginal weakness of the ultra - long end might be due to some long - position funds taking profits at the beginning of the week, causing the TL2603 contract to correct. However, the long - term allocation demand from the "good start" dividend - insurance sales of insurance institutions and the inflow of foreign risk - hedging funds supported the price to stabilize around 112 yuan [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - based pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rate, bond - pledged repurchase rate, R007&DR007 spread and trading volume, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, excess reserve ratio, LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads. But there is no specific text summary of these data [8][9][11] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The content shows various indicators of Treasury bond futures arbitrage, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts in the current quarter. But there is no specific text analysis of these indicators [38][41][48]