投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 市场情绪显著波动，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：市场情绪显著波动，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，亚洲苯乙烯-苯价差回升至210美元，苯乙烯-石脑油价差达340美元，双双显著走阔，标志着生产商利润已重回可变成本盈亏平衡线以 | | | | 上，刺激开工意愿。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 截至2026年1月26日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：30.5万吨，较上期库存29.7万吨累库0.8万吨，环比增加2.69%；较去年同期库存13.5万吨累库17万 吨，同比上升125.93%。1月19日-1月25日，不完全统计到货1.3吨，提货约0.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite intensified external disturbances, A-shares maintain strong resilience due to sufficient domestic liquidity and positive market sentiment. Short - term index fluctuations are expected to be limited, and long - term investors can gradually build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Driving Forces** - Economic and corporate profit factors are neutral to bearish. In January, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3% from 50.1% due to statistical factors and early Spring Festival returns. The non - manufacturing PMI also declined to 49.4% from 50.2%. The production and new order indices decreased by 1.1 and 1.6 percentage points respectively [3]. - Policy factors are neutral. The selling pace of broad - based ETFs has slowed recently. From January 15th, institutions concentrated on reducing broad - based index ETFs, with a cumulative scale of over 700 billion yuan by January 27th. However, the reduction speed decreased significantly on January 28th and 29th [3]. - Overseas factors are bearish. Trump's nomination of Warsh, a well - known hawk, as the new Fed Chairman has raised concerns about tighter overseas liquidity. On Friday, the US dollar rebounded sharply, and gold and silver prices tumbled [3]. - Liquidity factors are neutral to bullish. As of January 29th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 2730.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.94 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment View and Trading Strategy** - The investment view is to go long opportunistically. Although external disturbances have intensified, the index is likely to remain resilient in the short - term. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long opportunistically, with attention to overseas geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index and Futures Weekly Returns** - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 0.08% to 4706.3, the SSE 50 rose 1.13% to 3066.5, the CSI 500 fell 2.56% to 8370.5, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.55% to 8254.9 [5]. - For futures contracts, the IF main contract was flat, the IH main contract rose 3.60%, the IC main contract rose 8.49%, and the IM main contract rose 7.66% [6]. - **Industry Index Market Review** - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, the top - performing sectors last week were communication (5.8%), non - ferrous metals (3.4%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1.8%), food and beverage (1.6%), and non - bank finance (1%). The underperforming sectors were national defense and military industry (-7.7%), power equipment (-5.1%), automobile (-5.1%), computer (-4.8%), and comprehensive (-4.7%) [10]. - **Stock Index Futures Volume and Open Interest Tracking** - For the CSI 300 futures, the trading volume was 814,420 lots, a 30.21% increase, and the open interest was 332,644 lots, a 10.98% increase [12]. - For the SSE 50 futures, the trading volume was 378,798 lots, a 43.27% increase, and the open interest was 122,366 lots, a 12.50% increase [12]. - For the CSI 500 futures, the trading volume was 1,061,171 lots, a 22.45% increase, and the open interest was 349,459 lots, a 2.41% increase [12]. - For the CSI 1000 futures, the trading volume was 1,257,463 lots, a 18.37% increase, and the open interest was 408,840 lots, a 3.24% increase [12]. - **Contract Premium and Discount** - As of January 30th, the current - month contract IF2602 had an annualized premium of 1.35%; IH2602 had an annualized premium of 0.97%; IC2602 had an annualized premium of 1.39%; IM2602 had an annualized premium of 5.8% [17]. - The next - month contract IF2603 had an annualized premium of 0.74%; IH2603 had an annualized premium of 1.82%; IC2603 had an annualized discount of 0.72%; IM2603 had an annualized premium of 0.52% [17]. - The current - quarter contract IF2606 had an annualized discount of 0.36%; IH2606 had an annualized premium of 1.15%; IC2606 had an annualized discount of 2.2%; IM2606 had an annualized discount of 3.51% [17]. - The next - quarter contract IF2609 had an annualized discount of 1.72%; IH2609 had an annualized discount of 0.69%; IC2609 had an annualized discount of 3.03%; IM2609 had an annualized discount of 4.94% [17]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance** - The spread of CSI 300 - SSE 50 was 1639.8, at the 95.3% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was - 115.7, at the 16.5% historical quantile level [21]. - The ratio of CSI 300/CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 22.5% historical quantile level; the ratio of SSE 50/CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 20% historical quantile level [21]. 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - Liquidity** - This week, the central bank conducted 1761.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1181 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 580.5 billion yuan. There was also 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash fixed - deposit operations were carried out [27]. - Next week, 1761.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases will mature, and 70 billion yuan in 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [27]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading Balance** - As of January 29th, the margin trading balance in A - shares was 2730.42 billion yuan, an increase of 15.94 billion yuan from the previous week [33]. - As of January 29th, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 9.6%, at the 77% quantile level in the past decade [33]. - The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 3280.6 billion yuan, 2921.5 billion yuan, 2992.3 billion yuan, 3259.4 billion yuan, and 2862.4 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 264.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [33]. - As of January 30th, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.24, at the 49.1% quantile level in the past decade [33]. 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macro - Indicators** - In December 2025, GDP at constant prices was 4.5%, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year [36]. - The manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from December 2025. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [45]. - **Corporate Earnings** - For major broad - based indices, the year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company and the return on net assets (TTM) showed different trends in different periods. For example, the CSI 300 had a year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 5.22% in Q3 2025, and a return on net assets (TTM) of 9.93% [50]. - For Shenwan primary industry indices, the profitability and return on net assets (TTM) also varied. For instance, the non - bank finance industry had a year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 38.65% in Q3 2025, and a return on net assets (TTM) of 12.94% [51]. 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends** - The government has proposed to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand, promoting innovation, and stabilizing the real estate market [55]. - Policies such as optimizing housing purchase restrictions, increasing consumer subsidies, and supporting equipment updates have been introduced to boost the economy [55][57]. 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators** - In December 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points [68]. - The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January 2026 was 56.4, an increase of 3.5 from the previous value [68]. - The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls (seasonally - adjusted) was 50,000 [68]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, including increasing tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [74][76]. 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation Levels** - As of January 23, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1 times, 11.5 times, 38.9 times, and 51.5 times respectively, at the 79%, 78.4%, 79.8%, and 76.1% quantile levels since October 2014 [83]. - **Sector Profitability and Valuation Levels** - Different sectors have different price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their historical quantile levels. For example, the bank sector had a price - to - earnings ratio of 6.3, at the 44% historical quantile level in the past decade, and a price - to - book ratio of 0.5, at the 26% historical quantile level [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "观望" (wait - and - see). Given the current situation where bullish factors on the supply side and bearish factors on the demand side are intertwined, along with significant macro - fluctuations in commodities, it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently influenced by a combination of multiple factors. Supply - side factors are relatively strong, demand - side factors are neutral to bearish, and inventory factors are bearish. Overall, the market lacks clear - cut trends, and it is advisable to wait and see before making investment decisions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Supply factors are strong. APP has raised global pulp prices by $20 per ton, and Suzano has announced a $10 per - ton price increase. APRIL plans unplanned maintenance shutdowns on selected pulp production lines from February to March 2026, with an expected production reduction of about 150,000 tons [4]. - **Demand**: Demand factors are neutral to bearish. The price of household paper has continued to rise this week, while the price of coated paper has fallen. The prices of offset paper and white cardboard have remained stable. Paper production has slightly decreased due to maintenance, and most paper mills have gradually completed pre - Spring Festival inventory preparations [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory factors are bearish. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.169 million tons, a cumulative increase of 101,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.9%. Port inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [4]. - **Investment View**: Given the current situation where bullish supply - side and bearish demand - side factors are intertwined, along with significant macro - fluctuations in commodities, it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side trading, the view is bearish. For arbitrage, it is necessary to monitor overseas pulp mill inventory levels and domestic finished paper prices [4]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Pulp futures have continued to perform weakly this week. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly declined, and the basis of softwood pulp has slightly strengthened. With the lack of positive drivers in the pulp futures market and a weakening of macro sentiment, it is expected to continue its weak performance next week [8]. - **Spot Market**: The price of hardwood pulp has softened, and the basis of softwood pulp has weakened. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) is 5,300 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan per ton. The price of softwood pulp (Buzhen) is 4,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 170 yuan per ton. The price of hardwood pulp (Goldfish) is 4,550 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan per ton [17]. - **External Quotes**: In January, the external quote for softwood pulp increased. Chile's Arauco Company's January softwood pulp offer was $710 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton; the offer for hardwood pulp (Star) was $590 per ton, an increase of $20 per ton; the offer for natural pulp (Venus) was $620 per ton, remaining unchanged. The APP Group has increased pulp prices by $20 per ton in all global markets [19]. - **Open Interest**: As of January 30, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 372,546 lots, a 7% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 277,027 lots, a 6% increase from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - **Imports**: In December, the import volume of hardwood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a 23.99% increase; the softwood pulp import volume was 725,000 tons, a 4.92% increase; the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.765 million tons, a 33.88% increase; the hardwood chip import volume was 1.49 million tons, a 55.69% increase [6]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory has increased, and futures warehouse receipts have slightly increased. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.169 million tons, a cumulative increase of 101,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.9%. The inventory at the delivery warehouse was 104,500 tons, a 4.30% increase [6]. Overseas pulp mill inventory days are basically stable. In late November, the inventory of commodity pulp suppliers in 20 countries was 46 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 49 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days [37]. - **Downstream Demand**: The prices of wood - pulp paper products have remained stable. As of January 30, 2026, the price of offset paper was 4,725 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of coated paper was 4,660 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of household paper was 5,875 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of white cardboard was 4,269 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week. In December 2025, the production volume of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The production of offset paper was 867,400 tons, a 9.7% month - on - month increase and a 15.8% year - on - year increase; the production of coated paper was 409,200 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; the production of household paper was 858,600 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 10.2% year - on - year increase; the production of white cardboard was 1.125 million tons, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 30.4% year - on - year increase [42][51]. - **Overseas Market**: In December 2025, European demand for softwood pulp was 198,600 tons (a 7.1% month - on - month decrease and an 8.3% year - on - year decrease); demand for hardwood pulp was 476,000 tons (an 11.59% month - on - month decrease and a 2.55% year - on - year increase). European pulp inventory decreased. In December 2025, the softwood pulp inventory was 222,800 tons (a 6.93% month - on - month increase and a 0.71% year - on - year increase); the hardwood pulp inventory was 493,800 tons (a 9.59% month - on - month increase and a 15.53% year - on - year increase) [79]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of softwood pulp has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has remained flat. As of January 30, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 0 yuan per ton, an increase of 48 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of Shandong Goldfish was - 750 yuan per ton, an increase of 28 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of January 23, 2026, the pulp 5 - 9 spread was - 44 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the volatile pattern and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend. The current market has both long and short factors. On one hand, institutional allocation demand and the risk - hedging property of RMB assets support the market, especially for ultra - long - term varieties. On the other hand, stock market performance, policy expectations, and changes in supply - demand relations will jointly affect market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, the bond market trend depends on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the subsequent direction of monetary policy. If economic data such as inflation continues to pick up and more regions are able to expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed differentiation between long and short ends. The ultra - long - end center slowly declined with the TL main contract down 0.34% for the week, the 10 - year main contract steadily rose slightly with a weekly gain of about 0.11%, and the medium - and short - term maturities changed little. Market fluctuations were mainly in equities and commodities. The turning point of risk assets on Friday was due to factors like the Iranian situation, new Fed candidates, US policy shutdown risk, and risks in the US stock market during the earnings season. Domestic bonds were less affected by other major asset classes. The central bank continuously released liquidity through reverse repurchase, with a total of 176.15 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations for the week, achieving a net injection after offsetting maturities. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and the weighted average DR007 rate fluctuated around the policy rate, keeping the funds reasonably abundant. The marginal weakness of the ultra - long end might be due to some long - position funds taking profits at the beginning of the week, causing the TL2603 contract to correct. However, the long - term allocation demand from the "good start" dividend - insurance sales of insurance institutions and the inflow of foreign risk - hedging funds supported the price to stabilize around 112 yuan [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - based pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rate, bond - pledged repurchase rate, R007&DR007 spread and trading volume, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, excess reserve ratio, LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads. But there is no specific text summary of these data [8][9][11] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The content shows various indicators of Treasury bond futures arbitrage, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts in the current quarter. But there is no specific text analysis of these indicators [38][41][48]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 目前交投冷清，低估值下驱动有限 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 集运指数：目前交投冷清，低估值下驱动有限 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 呈节前回落态势，各联盟分化调整。GEMINI 联盟，WK6 马士基开舱价降至 2000-2100 美元 / FEU，赫伯罗特维持 2300-2500 美元 / FEU；WK7 马士基进一 | | | | 步下调至 1995 美元 / FEU，赫伯罗特暂稳。OA 联盟，WK6 小幅回落至 2500 美元 / FEU 上下，WK7 华北口岸中远海运已调至 2200-2300 美元 / FEU，华东 | | 现货运价 | 利空 | 口岸或跟进，整体区间 2200-2300 美元 / FEU。PA 联盟，WK6 在 2200-2400 美元 / FEU 波动，WK7 受 ONE WK8 表价 2000 美元 / FEU 传导，均值趋近 | | | | 200 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-02 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 5/22 6/22 7/22 8/22 9/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 1/22 棕榈油 豆油 菜油 农产品指数 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 豆油偏紧，菜 油偏紧有缓和， | （1）马来持续减产表现；（2）2-3月进口大豆有青黄不接的可能； ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东紧张局势持续，国际油价进一步走高 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东紧张局势持续，国际油价进一步走高 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882万桶 ...

节前上冲动力不足，盘面震荡回调 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-02 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 行情回顾：基差走强 玉米主力合约基差走势 -400 -200 0 200 400 03/21 04/21 05/22 06/22 07/23 08/23 09/23 10/24 11/24 12/25 01/25 02/25 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:节前上冲动力不足，盘面震荡回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）目前东北基层售粮进度已达六成，同比偏快，春节前后或有一定卖压，但今年粮质偏干，中下游补库需求支撑下，卖压体现预期有限；（2）25/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on log futures [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are likely to see an increase in the January foreign market quotation, and the shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased due to the Christmas effect, so they are expected to move upward [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. From January 10 - 16, 2026, 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week. In the past 4 weeks, 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 26 ships with 920,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 13 ships and 520,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [4] - **Demand**: Neutral. From January 19 - 25, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 61,800 cubic meters, a 0.3% increase from the previous week [4] - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters or 3% week - on - week [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The valuation of log futures is moderately low [4] - **Investment View**: Log futures are expected to move upward. The January foreign market quotation is likely to rise, and the shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased due to the Christmas effect [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Not provided; Risk focus: Domestic demand situation [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: Log futures broke through the oscillation range last week. The spot price of logs increased, and there was a bullish driver of decreased shipping volume on the supply - demand side [8] - **Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 16,758 lots, a 1.7% increase from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 10,123 lots, a 12.8% decrease week - on - week [12] - **Spot Price**: As of January 30, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 680/740/850 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/770/940 yuan per cubic meter. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/800 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 780/820/840 yuan per cubic meter [17] 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% decrease month - on - month and a 22.45% decrease year - on - year. In 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a 27.01% decrease month - on - month and a 13.02% decrease year - on - year. In 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% increase year - on - year [23] - **Shipping Volume**: In December 2025, about 52 ships of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a monthly increase of 3 ships, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase from 1.892 million cubic meters in October. From January 24 - 30, 2026, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 1 ship and 30,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 7 ships with 270,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters week - on - week. In the past 4 weeks, 28 ships with 1.06 million cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 24 ships and 880,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 23 ships with 860,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 14 ships and 480,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [29] - **Inventory**: As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters or 4.46% week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters or 5.24% week - on - week; the North American timber inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 8.33% week - on - week; the spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. In terms of provincial inventory, as of January 16, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a 2.04% decrease from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 410,820 cubic meters, a 15.18% decrease from the previous week [36] - **Outbound Volume**: From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, a 7.13% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 32,400 cubic meters, a 16.13% increase from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 22,800 cubic meters, a 2.98% decrease from the previous week [40] - **Processing**: As of January 30, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,300 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,290 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 38.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 10 yuan per cubic meter, a 15 - yuan increase week - on - week [43]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 出口价格拉涨，盘面突破新高 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC周度数据 | | | | | | PVC主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨 跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨 跌（幅） | | | 主力价格（元/吨) | 5063 00 . | 4921 00 . | 2 89% . | | 中国产量(万吨) | 48 21 . | 48 75 . | -1 11% . | | | 近月价格 | 4790 00 . | 4658 00 . | 2 83% . | ...