投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 目前交投冷清，低估值下驱动有限 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 集运指数：目前交投冷清，低估值下驱动有限 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 呈节前回落态势，各联盟分化调整。GEMINI 联盟，WK6 马士基开舱价降至 2000-2100 美元 / FEU，赫伯罗特维持 2300-2500 美元 / FEU；WK7 马士基进一 | | | | 步下调至 1995 美元 / FEU，赫伯罗特暂稳。OA 联盟，WK6 小幅回落至 2500 美元 / FEU 上下，WK7 华北口岸中远海运已调至 2200-2300 美元 / FEU，华东 | | 现货运价 | 利空 | 口岸或跟进，整体区间 2200-2300 美元 / FEU。PA 联盟，WK6 在 2200-2400 美元 / FEU 波动，WK7 受 ONE WK8 表价 2000 美元 / FEU 传导，均值趋近 | | | | 200 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-02 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 5/22 6/22 7/22 8/22 9/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 1/22 棕榈油 豆油 菜油 农产品指数 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 豆油偏紧，菜 油偏紧有缓和， | （1）马来持续减产表现；（2）2-3月进口大豆有青黄不接的可能； ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 中东紧张局势持续，国际油价进一步走高 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:中东紧张局势持续，国际油价进一步走高 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882万桶 ...

节前上冲动力不足，盘面震荡回调 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-02 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 行情回顾：基差走强 玉米主力合约基差走势 -400 -200 0 200 400 03/21 04/21 05/22 06/22 07/23 08/23 09/23 10/24 11/24 12/25 01/25 02/25 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:节前上冲动力不足，盘面震荡回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）目前东北基层售粮进度已达六成，同比偏快，春节前后或有一定卖压，但今年粮质偏干，中下游补库需求支撑下，卖压体现预期有限；（2）25/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on log futures [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are likely to see an increase in the January foreign market quotation, and the shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased due to the Christmas effect, so they are expected to move upward [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. From January 10 - 16, 2026, 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week. In the past 4 weeks, 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 26 ships with 920,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 13 ships and 520,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [4] - **Demand**: Neutral. From January 19 - 25, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 61,800 cubic meters, a 0.3% increase from the previous week [4] - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters or 3% week - on - week [4] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The valuation of log futures is moderately low [4] - **Investment View**: Log futures are expected to move upward. The January foreign market quotation is likely to rise, and the shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased due to the Christmas effect [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Not provided; Risk focus: Domestic demand situation [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: Log futures broke through the oscillation range last week. The spot price of logs increased, and there was a bullish driver of decreased shipping volume on the supply - demand side [8] - **Futures Position**: As of January 30, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 16,758 lots, a 1.7% increase from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 10,123 lots, a 12.8% decrease week - on - week [12] - **Spot Price**: As of January 30, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 680/740/850 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/770/940 yuan per cubic meter. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/800 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 780/820/840 yuan per cubic meter [17] 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% decrease month - on - month and a 22.45% decrease year - on - year. In 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a 27.01% decrease month - on - month and a 13.02% decrease year - on - year. In 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% increase year - on - year [23] - **Shipping Volume**: In December 2025, about 52 ships of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a monthly increase of 3 ships, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase from 1.892 million cubic meters in October. From January 24 - 30, 2026, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 1 ship and 30,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 7 ships with 270,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters week - on - week. In the past 4 weeks, 28 ships with 1.06 million cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 24 ships and 880,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 23 ships with 860,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 14 ships and 480,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [29] - **Inventory**: As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters or 4.46% week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters or 5.24% week - on - week; the North American timber inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 8.33% week - on - week; the spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. In terms of provincial inventory, as of January 16, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a 2.04% decrease from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 410,820 cubic meters, a 15.18% decrease from the previous week [36] - **Outbound Volume**: From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, a 7.13% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 32,400 cubic meters, a 16.13% increase from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 22,800 cubic meters, a 2.98% decrease from the previous week [40] - **Processing**: As of January 30, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,300 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,290 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 38.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 10 yuan per cubic meter, a 15 - yuan increase week - on - week [43]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 出口价格拉涨，盘面突破新高 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC周度数据 | | | | | | PVC主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨 跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨 跌（幅） | | | 主力价格（元/吨) | 5063 00 . | 4921 00 . | 2 89% . | | 中国产量(万吨) | 48 21 . | 48 75 . | -1 11% . | | | 近月价格 | 4790 00 . | 4658 00 . | 2 83% . | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, although external disturbances intensify, domestic capital drives the stock index to maintain strong resilience, with limited space for short - term shock adjustment. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks in the short term. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. - Market risk - aversion sentiment has significantly increased, leading to sharp fluctuations in prices of various commodities such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. Different commodities have different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - Short - term: Despite increased external disturbances, domestic capital drives the stock index to remain resilient, with limited shock adjustment space. - Long - term: Long - term investors can take this opportunity to gradually build long positions [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest rate risks. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals Copper - Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and after a sharp rise in copper prices, market sentiment amplifies the fluctuation range, causing intensified price fluctuations. Pay attention to Kevin Warsh's statement [1]. Aluminum - Limited industry drive and increased macro risk - aversion sentiment have caused a sharp decline in aluminum prices. Pay attention to the recovery of market sentiment [1]. Alumina - Supply exceeds demand in the domestic alumina industry, with a weak industrial outlook and price pressure. However, the current price is near the cost line, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Zinc - The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. The North American cold wave has affected energy prices, which is unfavorable for overseas smelter restart. There are expectations of fundamental improvement. Under the current risk - aversion sentiment, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Nickel - In the short term, nickel prices fluctuate weakly, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, high global nickel inventories may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to operate in the short term and wait for low - buying opportunities [1]. Stainless Steel - The raw material nickel - iron price continues to rise, but the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, and the social inventory has slightly increased. Steel mills' maintenance and production cuts in February have increased. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills. With raw material support and cooling macro - sentiment, stainless - steel futures fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to operate in the short term and control risks [1]. Tin - Short - term market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, causing large fluctuations in tin prices. Considering the fragile tin supply fundamentals, after a full correction, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities from a medium - to - long - term perspective [1]. Precious Metals - Trump's nomination of a hawkish candidate for the new Fed chairman has boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on precious metals prices. Panic selling has led to a sharp decline. In the short term, the market may continue to release risks, but the space for further sharp declines is relatively limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Platinum and Palladium - Short - term: Panic selling has caused sharp declines in platinum and palladium prices. The market may continue to release risks, with prices expected to open sharply lower and fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see. - Medium - to - long - term: There are differences in the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium. There is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be followed [1]. Industrial Silicon - Northwest production increases, while southwest production decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have declined [1]. Polysilicon - In the new - energy vehicle off - season, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is battery export rush. After a large increase, there is a need for a correction [1]. Ferrous Metals Rebar - The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak. The sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see. Participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. Hot - Rolled Coil - High production and high inventory suppress price increases. The transmission of futures price increases to the spot is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see. Participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. Iron Ore - There is obvious upward pressure on iron ore. It is not recommended to chase long at this position [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase was shelved, short - sellers increased positions. The coking coal 05 contract has broken through important supports. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The purchasing rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and there is a possibility of production reduction and inventory reduction in the origin. Coupled with the potential fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are strong, combined with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel. It is recommended to go long [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Sino - Canadian relations are still variable under US influence, and the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked. The short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel benefits the oil market [1]. Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the cotton purchase price supports lint costs. The downstream operating rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". Pay attention to relevant factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year [1]. Sugar - There is a global surplus of sugar, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below. However, the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Pay attention to changes in the capital situation [1]. Grains - Pre - festival stocking is nearly over, the regional price difference is low, and the domestic grain reserve inventory is sufficient. Pre - festival funds are taking profits, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and correct before the festival [1]. Soybeans - There is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area in February, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. Logistics congestion in Brazil may postpone the selling pressure of the basis. The domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing margin is at a high level. The short - term unilateral upward expectation is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly later [1]. Pulp and Logs Pulp - There are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side weakens after restocking. It is recommended to wait and see in the face of large fluctuations in commodity sentiment [1]. Logs - The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February is expected to decline, and the overseas quotation is expected to rise. The futures price has upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation has heated up, and the US cold wave has increased energy demand [1]. Fuel Oil - Follows crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. Asphalt - The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction rush demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of raw material (Maya crude oil) is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. BR Rubber - The cost of raw material (butadiene) has strong support, and there are expectations of increased exports in the long - term. Recently, private butadiene - rubber plant profits have been severely lost, and there are expectations of maintenance and production reduction. The short - term downstream negative feedback is gradually realized. Butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and high butadiene - rubber inventory is a potential negative factor. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely and correct, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. PTA and Short - Fiber - The PX market is strong, driving up chemical products. There has been a large inflow of funds into the chemical sector. The polyester sector has led the rise in the chemical industry. Domestic PTA production has continued to increase, with no new production capacity. PTA maintains a high operating rate, and domestic demand has declined. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. Ethylene Glycol - After a long - term slump, the overseas ethylene - glycol price has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene - glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 180 - million - ton ethylene - glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch a 90 - million - ton EG production line to ethylene production in mid - February. Market speculative demand has significantly increased [1]. Styrene - News of the shutdown of a styrene plant in the Middle East has spread. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene gradually improve, the styrene futures price has quickly rebounded. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, and the styrene - benzene price difference has widened. The inventory of styrene has decreased, alleviating the overall inventory pressure [1]. Methanol - Affected by the Iranian situation, the expected future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The downstream MTO leading device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The Iranian situation has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. Cold air has increased freight costs in the inland area, and northwest enterprises have large inventory - clearing pressure and are selling at reduced prices [1]. PE - The Zhong'an United full - density device has stopped, and the linear production ratio has decreased. There are risks of rising crude oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. PVC - Global production capacity expansion in 2026 is limited, with an optimistic future expectation. The current fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a rush to export. Differential electricity prices in the northwest region are expected to be implemented, forcing out inefficient PVC production capacity [1]. PG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has decreased. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and the futures price is expected to weaken, with the basis expected to widen. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to seasonally recover. The global civilian combustion demand is stable, but the overseas olefin blending demand for MTBE has declined seasonally. The short - term demand side is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. Be vigilant against the resurgence of the Middle East geopolitical situation [1]. Shipping Container Shipping on the European Route - Pre - festival freight rates have peaked and declined. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. Airlines expect a strong willingness to stop the price decline and increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【液化石油气（LPG）投资周报】 地缘情绪僵持，PG维持高位震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-2-2 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院（助理分析师）：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 能化产品收盘价格监控 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | | 周涨跌幅 | | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 6 9678 . | -0 . | 13% | -0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with short - term disk having no obvious driver and expected to be mainly oscillating [3] Core View - This week, the maintenance of caustic soda decreased, production increased, but the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak, and the inventory of some sample enterprises increased. The cost of raw materials decreased, energy cost remained flat, and the overall chlor - alkali profit declined. The spot price was at a low level, and the disk price rebounded slightly. The short - term market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3][6] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. This week, maintenance decreased and production increased by 0.3 tons to 850,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises was 87.4%, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in North, Central, and East China decreased, while the load in Southwest Sichuan increased [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.43%, a 3.01% week - on - week increase. The comprehensive start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 60.09%, a 0.72% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Inventory**: Bearish. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 520,300 wet tons, a 2.11% week - on - week increase and a 110.11% year - on - year increase. The storage ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 30.02%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The storage ratios in North, Northwest, Central, East, South, Southwest, and Northeast China increased week - on - week. The sample warehouse inventory in Central China decreased by 4.76%, and that in East China decreased by 15.71% [3] - **Basis**: Neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around - 37, with the disk price at a premium [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. This week, the raw material cost decreased, energy cost remained flat, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased slightly, the price of caustic soda continued to decline, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine remained stable, and the overall chlor - alkali profit declined. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased to 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute disk price is low, and the main contract is at a slight premium [3] - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. There is no relevant policy for the time being [3] - **Investment View**: The short - term disk has no obvious driver and is expected to be mainly oscillating [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for the time being [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - This week, the Shandong spot price fell, and the futures oscillated. The disk price rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the price of liquid chlorine dropped, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was in the red, there was less maintenance, and the overall supply was high. On the demand side, it was the seasonal off - peak season, downstream demand was for rigid needs, traders' enthusiasm for stockpiling was weak, and export transactions were average. Shandong faced great inventory accumulation pressure, the spot price was not yet stable. The current trading was a game around cost, and the price of caustic soda was prone to fluctuations. It is recommended that investors stay on the sidelines [6] - The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts increased their positions [25] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Due to the tight supply of coal, the electricity price increased [33] - **Upstream Production**: The start - up remained at a high level, and inventory was destocked [35] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [38] - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased [39] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42] - **Alumina**: The start - up of alumina recovered, and inventory was accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, port inventory of bauxite increased, alumina profit was poor but there was no significant production cut, and the supply of bauxite was in surplus [54][62] - **Non - aluminum Demand**: The non - aluminum industry entered the seasonal off - peak season, and the start - up declined. The printing and dyeing market was weak, and the short - term market recovery was weak [63][64] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate rebounded [71]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-02-02 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 估 值 和 驱 动 暂 不 清 晰 ， 关 注 基 差 错 配 机 会 产 业 淡 季 驱 动 不 足 ， 跟 随 叙 事 震 荡 运 行 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 " 复 产 + 补 库 " 的 短 期 支 撑 和 库 存 的 长 期 压 力 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：估值和驱动暂不清晰，关注基差错配机会 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给 偏多 铁水产量窄幅波动，本周-0.12至228wt；废钢日耗环比小增，高于25年同期水平，略低于2024年同 ...