a Begon 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格龈踪 | 2025/12/5 | 4226. 76 | 58. 32 | 4257.00 | 58.91 | 957. 54 | 13669.00 | 955. 50 | 13663.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 黄金震荡，白银再创新高 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-08 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、国贸期货研究院 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周金银走势分化：黄金震荡，周线下跌；白银剧烈波动，再创新高，周线收 涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）日本央行12月加息担忧升温，市场情绪趋于谨 慎，同时美国周度申请失业金人数大幅回落缓和就业恶化风险、12月消费者信心指数 5个月以来首次回升以及市场对美联储明年的降息趋势偏谨慎，美债收益率创8周以来 最大周度涨幅，加上中美经贸双方牵头人举行视频通话等均一度压制金价；但美国9 月核心PCE意外下降，强化美联储12月降息预期，中国央行连续13个月增持黄金储备， 普京拒绝接受和平计划部分内容，美国债务规模持续攀升等，则对金价构成支撑，故 金价整体高位震荡。（2）白银方面，在12月降息预期仍较高和供需结构失衡下，银 价整体延续强势，伦敦现 ...

| 工程度明 | 度 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 | | | 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | DXJE | 略角度看,近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | 宏观金融 | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 農汤 | 国债 | 置间。 | | | | 震荡 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,铜价存在回落风险。 | 국미 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,价格存在回落风险。 | 震荡 | | | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 | 氧化铝 | 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 | 短期宏观利好消化,且供应仍偏过剩下,锌价有回落风险。关注 | | | | ...

免责 投资目标、财务优乐动需要、投资者需目标判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负、本报告仅向图贸斯货客户推送。未经圆贸期货授权许可，任 何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权，我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 ll(c国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】31号 LPG数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | 从业资格证号: F3071622 | 2025/12/5 | 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 | 能源化工研究中心：叶海文 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涨跌幅 | 行情综述 | 指标 | 涨跌 | 现值 | 前值 | 单位 | 28.00 | 0.65% | 收盘价 | 4289 | 4317 | 元/吨 | ...

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [ ] C 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ,给数据 | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询证:Z0017251 2025/12/05 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | | 从业资格证:F3066728 = | | | 指标 | | | 2025/12/03 2025/12/04 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | | | WTI | | 58. 95 58. 64 | 0. 31 | | | | 原油& | | | 62. 45 | 0. 22 | | | | 石脑油 | Brent | | 62. 67 | | | | | | 石脑油 | | 567. 25 562 | -5.25 | | | | 乙烯 CFR东北亚 | | | 740 740 | | 苯乙烯:江苏市场震荡跌价。虽隔夜原油小涨,然原 料支撑之力,苯乙烯出货意向强,纯苯整理,苯乙烯 | | 游 | | CFR中国 | 669 | 67 ...

NUMBER WATER WARRENT FREE WARRET FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE FREE . Wa (2) | ITG国贸期货 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PE数据日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | 2025/12/05 | 从业资格证:F3054270 | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | | | | | | | 2025/12/03 2025/12/04 | 现货综述 | 指标 | 变动值 | 62. 45 | | | | | | | 62.67 | 0. 22 | Brent | 动力煤 | 470 | 470 | | | | | | 乙烷(CFR中国) | 3120 | 3140 | 20 | 乙烯(进口) | 上游 | 740x | 740 | 0 | | | 今日LLDPE市场价格多数跌。国内LLDPE市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating [2][3][4] 2. Core View of the Report - On December 3rd, the A - share market fluctuated and declined, with more stocks falling than rising, over 3800 stocks declined; market hotspots were scarce, and trading volume remained relatively low. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.51% at 3878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78%, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.12%, the North - Securities 50 declined 0.4%, the STAR 50 fell 0.89%, the Wind All - A dropped 0.72%, the Wind A500 declined 0.58%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.56%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.68 trillion yuan, compared with 1.61 trillion yuan the previous day [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Performance - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes (in billions), and trading amounts (in billions of yuan) of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are as follows: - Shanghai Composite 50: closing price 2963.0763, down 0.52%, trading volume 38.52 billion, trading amount 854.95 billion yuan [3] - CSI 300: closing price 4531.0486, down 0.51%, trading volume 169.76 billion, trading amount 3744.86 billion yuan [3] - CSI 1000: closing price 7248.274, down 0.89%, trading volume 214.63 billion, trading amount 3350.34 billion yuan [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - Option trading volume, open interest, trading volume of call options, trading volume of put options, open interest of call options, open interest of put options, trading volume PCR, and open interest PCR of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are presented in detail [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and volatility smile curves of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are analyzed, including the 10% - 30% quantile, maximum, minimum, current value, 90% quantile, and 60% quantile of historical volatility [3]

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/12/4 | 指标 | | 12月3日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 94 | | 1600 1200 800 | ニニニー 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 54 | | | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -26 | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | 14 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/71 03/24 | | 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 12/28 | | | | ...

IICE FRIE 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | c | C L | C T 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | J C | LU | H | | | Company of the control of the consideration of the 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 業 | 现值 | 1403 | 1122 | 1632 | 94 | 2428 | 1404 | | | 前值 | 1394 | 1123 | 1645 | 1107 | 2384 | 1367 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 0.69% | -0.09% | -0.79% | -14.29% | 1.85% | 2 ...