Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index rebounded strongly yesterday, but the market trading volume shrank. The market sentiment gradually recovered with the rebound of overseas precious metal prices, and the stock index oscillated upward in the afternoon and closed at the intraday high. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the panic caused by the tightening of overseas liquidity is effectively alleviated. It is expected that the stock index will mainly consolidate after the shrinking - volume rebound. In the long run, in the context of low - interest rates and "asset shortage", the domestic market funds are still relatively abundant, and the stock index's medium - and long - term upward trend is not expected to end as the economy is in the process of bottom - building [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32 with a - 4.73bp change, DR007 at 1.50 with a 0.69bp change, GC001 at 1.60 with a - 18.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a - 3.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a - 0.30bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.30 with a - 0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57 with a - 0.75bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.81 with a - 0.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.29 with a 3.00bp change [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 rose 1.18% to 4660.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.05% to 3034.6, the CSI 500 rose 3.11% to 8286.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.93% to 8209.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2565.8 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally rose, with shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, small metals, glass fiber, engineering machinery, communication equipment, and aerospace sectors surging, while only the banking, insurance, and brewing industries declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 1.6% to 4658, IH当月 rose 1.0% to 3033, IC当月 rose 4.3% to 8296, IM当月 rose 3.8% to 8213. IF trading volume was 141,785 with a - 25.9% change, IF open interest was 311,044 with a - 0.9% change, IH trading volume was 63,934 with a - 28.4% change, IH open interest was 114,505 with a - 4.0% change, IC trading volume was 221,446 with a - 23.4% change, IC open interest was 327,164 with a - 0.5% change, IM trading volume was 257,636 with a - 16.1% change, and IM open interest was 405,518 with a - 2.1% change [5]. - **Futures Basis**: IF basis was 1.16% (current - month contract), 1.24% (next - month contract), 2.02% (current - quarter contract), 2.90% (next - quarter contract); IH basis was 1.26% (current - month contract), 0.42% (next - month contract), 0.83% (current - quarter contract), 1.84% (next - quarter contract); IC basis was - 2.36% (current - month contract), 0.46% (next - month contract), 3.14% (current - quarter contract), 3.72% (next - quarter contract); IM basis was - 1.02% (current - month contract), 2.58% (next - month contract), 5.82% (current - quarter contract), 6.33% (next - quarter contract) [7]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 105.5 billion yuan. 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan for the day [3]. - This week, 1761.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. From Monday to Friday, 150.5 billion yuan, 402 billion yuan, 377.5 billion yuan, 354 billion yuan, and 477.5 billion yuan will mature respectively. In addition, 700 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - Recent disturbances have resurfaced on the pulp supply - side, while the demand - side shows a decline. The overall commodity market has been highly volatile recently, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On February 3, 2026, SP2601 was 5464 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.44% and a weekly decrease of 1.69%; SP2609 was 5324 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly decrease of 1.26%; SP2605 was 5276 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly decrease of 1.24% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On February 3, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5320 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.12%; Russian coniferous pulp was 5100 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 1.92%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The foreign quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 3.51% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no month - on - month change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4830 yuan/ton, up 3.47% compared to the previous period; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton with no change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the shipment of coniferous pulp to China was 77.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.31%, and broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.40%. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed some fluctuations from December 2025 to January 2026 [5] - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous period. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses also fluctuated during the same period. The port sample inventory has been accumulating for four consecutive weeks [5] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed some decline. The demand for pulp has been stable recently, with a slight increase in tissue paper prices and stable prices for other paper products [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 2, the three major A-share indices all fell more than 2%. The Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. There was a wave of limit - down stocks in the gold and basic metals sectors, and resource stocks declined across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.48% at 4015.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.46%, the Northbound 50 fell 2.03%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 3.88%, the Wind All - A fell 2.71%, the Wind A500 fell 2.52%, and the CSI A500 fell 2.64%. A - shares traded 2.61 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 2.86 trillion yuan the previous day [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The closing price, change rate, trading volume (in billions), and trading value (in billions of yuan) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are as follows: Shanghai 50 closed at 3003.1373, down 2.07%, with a trading volume of 80.80 billion and a trading value of 2081.53 billion yuan; CSI 300 closed at 4605.9799, down 2.13%, with a trading volume of 304.77 billion and a trading value of 7259.20 billion yuan; CSI 1000 closed at 7975.4283, down 3.39%, with a trading volume of 308.32 billion and a trading value of 4989.41 billion yuan [3] - **China Financial Futures Exchange Stock Index Options Trading Situation**: The option trading volume and open interest of call options and put options for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are presented, along with the PCR (Put - Call Ratio) of trading volume and open interest [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Volatility**: The historical volatility and volatility cone of the Shanghai 50 are analyzed, including the minimum, maximum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, HV5, HV20, HV60, 60% quantile, current value, and 90% quantile. The volatility smile curve of the Shanghai 50's next - month at - the - money implied volatility is also shown [3] - **CSI 300 Volatility**: Similar to the Shanghai 50, the historical volatility, volatility cone, and volatility smile curve of the CSI 300 are provided [3] - **CSI 1000 Volatility**: The historical volatility, volatility cone, and volatility smile curve of the CSI 1000 are analyzed [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market this week shows a "divergent pattern under the game of expectations and reality", with futures and spot prices showing different trends. Futures are supported by multiple expectations and rise, while the spot market remains weak. In the long - term, there is a risk of over - capacity, and strategies should be cautious [7]. - The short - term cost - effectiveness of short - selling decreases. Attention should be paid to going long on the 06 contract at low levels and short - selling the 10 - month off - season contract on rebounds [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current values of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) are 1317 and 1176 respectively, with declines of - 9.68% and - 2.74% compared to the previous values. The SCFI for US West, US East, Northwest Europe, and Mediterranean also show significant declines, with drops of - 10.41%, - 10.05%, - 11.10%, and - 12.05% respectively [4]. 3.2 Geopolitical Situation - The US and Iran are still sending mixed signals, and the market's collective prediction probability of a military strike has slightly decreased. Iran's senior officials say efforts to start negotiations with the US are progressing, and the US is unlikely to launch an air strike on Iran in the near term. The "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [5]. 3.3 EC Market - **Price Trend**: The cut - off price shows a pre - holiday decline, with different adjustments among alliances. For example, in the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100/FEU and further to $1995/FEU in WK7, while Hapag - Lloyd maintained its price. All alliances' quotes are on a downward trend due to the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum period [6]. - **Market Pattern**: Futures are supported by multiple expectations such as the rush - shipping expectation caused by the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates, geopolitical conflict escalation, and weather fluctuations. The spot market is weak due to the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum, with shipping companies reducing prices to grab cargo. In the long - term, there is a risk of over - capacity [7].

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 做据日报 2026/2/3 | 指标 | | 2月2日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 450 | | 2500 | ==== 16/17 ===== 21/22 | ===== 17/18 == | == == | | ===== 19/20 - 24/25 | ===== 20/21 - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 410 | -3 -3 | 2000 1500 | | | | | | | | | | 340 | | 1000 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | 350 | -23 | -500 | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 11 ...

国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号:Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 2026/2/3 | | | | 日素姚 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标名称 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨 跌幅 | 3200 г | 主要图表 -- 现货智金(美元/盎司) SPTPDUSDOZ. IDC | | | 铂期货主力收盘价 | 413.7 | 464. 05 | -10. 85% | | -- 现货铂金(美元/盎司) SPTPTUSDOZ. IDC | | 国内价格 | 现货:铂(99.95%) | 550. 5 | 629.5 | -12. 55% | | | | | | | | | 2800 | | | (元/克) | 甜:基差(现-期) | 136.8 | 165. 45 | -17.32% | 2400 | | | | 锂期货主力收盘价 | 464. 05 | 526. 6 | -11.88% | 2000 | | | | 现货: 钟(99.95%) | 432 | 476 | -9.24% | 1600 ...

| 2024-10 | | | --- | --- | | ZUZS-IU | 705507 -- SHFE金银比价 -- COMEX金银比价 | | ■黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) -- 白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | 2025-10 | | | 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 -- 美元指数 -- NYMEX轻质原油 -- 伦敦金现(右) | | | ETF-SPDR ETF-SLV RETF-SLV REF B DOG | | 1）行情回顾：2月2日，沪金期货主力合约收货16.73¥至1008.6元元元，沪银期货台约全线封任联停、主力2604合约收货17%至2483元/千克，且2月晚间，白银继续 下挫,多个合约触及跌停,2604合约也一度跌20%至20600元/千克。 2 2019 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Biodiesel, Cottonseed Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Soybeans, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral**: Most other industries including stocks, bonds, and various metals and agricultural products, with suggestions of short - term caution, waiting for opportunities, and controlling risks [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short term, policies will support the A - share market, but overseas liquidity tightening may cause panic. In the long run, the stock index is still expected to rise due to low - interest rates, "asset shortage" and economic bottom - building. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - **Metals**: Macro - level risk aversion is pressuring the non - ferrous metals sector. Supply concerns in Indonesia are affecting nickel and stainless steel, while other metals like zinc, tin, etc. are facing different price trends and risks [1]. - **Agricultural products**: Different agricultural products have different market situations. For example, cotton has support but lacks a driving force; sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support; grains are expected to oscillate and decline before the holiday [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical sector is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Some products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are showing different price movements and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro - financial** - **Stocks**: Short - term caution is advised due to A - share weakness and overseas liquidity concerns. Long - term upward trend is expected due to low - interest rates and economic recovery [1]. - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are highlighted, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be monitored [1]. **Metals** - **Non - ferrous metals**: Overall under pressure from risk aversion. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by Indonesian supply issues. Zinc is expected to correct, and tin's price has fluctuated but not in a trend - reversing way. Gold and silver are in short - term oscillatory or stabilizing trends. Platinum and palladium may be supported in the short term [1]. - **Industrial metals**: Alumina is expected to oscillate near the cost line. Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) have limited upward space, and iron ore has a clear upper pressure [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Grains and oilseeds**: Soybeans are expected to be weak. Cotton is "supported but without a driver". Sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support. Grains are expected to decline before the holiday [1]. - **Livestock**: The pig production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Fossil fuels**: Crude oil and fuel oil may be affected by OPEC+ policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Asphalt has high profits but is also affected by supply and demand [1]. - **Chemicals**: PX drives the chemical sector. PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have different supply - demand and price trends. Methanol, polyethylene, PVC, and LPG are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping**: The freight rate on European routes has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The seasonal trading volume of steel continues to shrink, and the market remains volatile. The black sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and there are few tradable points in terms of valuation and drivers. The market is gradually entering a holiday state, and the liquidity of the spot market is being compressed. The demand for building materials is expected to decline seasonally in the next two weeks, and the support from demand for the market is limited. The market can be treated with a sideways view, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for the entry of futures positions, and the hot-rolled coil cash-and-carry arbitrage can be rolled [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate due to market sentiment. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand. The demand side is generally flat, and there is little improvement in the short term. The supply side has high production despite poor profits for alloy plants, and the medium-term oversupply pressure remains. Macro policies are mostly positive, and industrial policies provide driving and cost support for the supply of the two alloys. Overall, the fundamentals of the two alloys continue to be under pressure, and the prices fluctuate [3]. - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The coking coal trading volume has declined, and the actual trading atmosphere in the market is cold. The black market is in the off-season, and the trading is mainly affected by emotional funds. After a sharp decline in the short term, some varieties may rebound, but the black sector is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to cash in the spot before the holiday and wait for the opportunity to short on the futures market [3]. - The steel mill's molten iron production is basically stable. The 47-port daily average cargo clearance volume has increased significantly, and the port inventory has continued to rise and is higher than the same period last year. The steel mill's in-plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The short-term expectation of steel mill resumption and pre-holiday replenishment has supported the iron ore price, but the long-term pressure from port inventory remains. The iron ore market is expected to be in a sideways and slightly bullish pattern in the short term, but there is obvious upward pressure in the long term. It is recommended to short at the resistance level [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - On February 2, the closing prices of far-month contracts such as RB2610, HC2610, etc. declined compared with the previous day, with the decline rates ranging from -1.16% to -3.03%. The closing prices of near-month contracts such as RB2605, HC2605 also decreased, with the decline rates ranging from -1.24% to -3.42% [1]. - The spread between different contracts, such as the spread between RB2605 - RB2610, HC2605 - HC2610, etc., and the spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., also showed corresponding changes on February 2 [1]. Spot Market - On February 2, the spot prices of steel products such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, etc. declined to varying degrees, with the decline ranging from 0 to 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed, with the price of coking coal in some regions declining, and the price of coke in some regions remaining unchanged [1]. - The basis of different varieties, such as the basis of HC, RB, J, JM, etc., also showed corresponding changes on February 2 [1].

ITG国贸期货 装置检修动态:华东一套360万吨PTA装置目前降负中,预计15日开始按计划停车检修。华南一套125万吨PIA装置预计16日停车, 初步预计3月下重启。 PTA现货价格 -PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 -MEG内盘 县青 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 2025-01 2026-01 2025-10 2025-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 DTY现金流 FDY 现金流 800 涤短现金流 600- 切片址 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-02023-02024-02024-02024-02024-02024-09025-080 ...