| | | | | | | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W 分格号: F025 V 行业板块 | | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | | | | 短期内,市场成交量逐步小幅萎缩,加上国内外利多因素平平, | | | | | | 股指 | | | 股指向上突破存在阻力,或呈现震荡格局,后续关注宏观增量信 息对股指方向的指引。C | | | | 宏观金融 | | 国债 | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | | Fift | 震荡 | | 空间。 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主,关注关税进展。G | | | | | | 白银 | 農汤 | | 关税不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 월미 | 看答 | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 温,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | | | | | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2023- 2024- 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2024-07 2024-09 01 01 01 05 09 05 09 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一国贸易货 险,入市需谨慎。 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 2025/7/8 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/4 | 2025/7/7 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4835 | 4810 | (25.00) | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4365 | 4345 | (20. 00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌32至6518。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4710 | 0.00 | 短纤生产企业价格商谈为主,贸易商价格下跌, | | MEG收盘价 | 4277 | 4279 | 2. 00 | 下游按需采买,市场成交温吞。1.56dtex*38mm | | | | | | 半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6550- | | 1.4D直纺 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DROO1 | 1.31 | 0.05 | DR007 | 1.47 | 4.37 | | हूं | GC001 | 1.49 | 5.50 | GC007 | 1.51 | 2.00 | | E | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | -1.80 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | 0.40 | 5年期国债 | 1.47 | 0.15 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.64 | -0.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.35 | 5.00 | | 与 | DAID | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1065亿元7天期逆回购操作, 中山斗笛 出口名 ...

利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 61715 生产利 用 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -28 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 66522 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6352 行业 津巴布韦将从 2027 年起禁止锂精矿出口。根据路透社，2025年6月10日，津巴布韦矿业部长温斯顿·奇坦多（Winston Chitando）周二表示 巴布韦将从2027年起禁止锂精矿出口，以进一步推动本地加工。作为非洲顶级的锂生产国，津巴布韦已于2022年禁止了锂矿石的 推动矿商在国内进行更多加工。 主要 价格下方主要靠下游采买支撑，但正极厂、电池厂7月排产增幅较小，采买力量主要靠贸易商发力，空间有限。另外，由于价格反弹，7月供给 遭产幅度较大、供过于求的格局加深、拖累价格上行，且矿石端也未现减产返象。预计随着采买节奏放缓。碳酸锂期价下行压力将加剧 x H 责 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Changes**: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - **July 3, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - **July 2, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - **July 7, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - **July 4, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - **July 7, 2025**: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - **July 3, 2025**: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - **Market Data Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - **News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - **Analysis**: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 M9-1 M9-RM9 -55 -3 ----- 18/19 ====- 19/20 ====- 20/21 ====- 21/22 ===== 22/23 = 24/25 - 23/24 RM9-1 1200 264 -7 1000 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 800 320 10 现货价差(广东) 600 400 豆粕-菜粕 200 358 盘面价差(主力) 12/20 01/19 02/18 03/19 04/18 05/18 06/17 07/17 08/16 11/20 10/21 09/21 升贴水-连续肩 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 7.1747 品显 68. 00 225 0 进口大豆盘面毛利(元/吨) 大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) ===== 巴西2月 ===== 巴西4月 ===== 巴西3月 ===== 巴西4月 ……… 巴西5月 · == ====== 巴西3月 ……… 巴西5月 一 巴西6月 ----- 巴西7月 -- 巴西8月 巴西9月 巴西6月 ----- 巴西7月 -- 巴西8月 一 ...

【钢材】情绪冷静,日线收绿 周一期现价格小跌,基差暂稳,建材贸易成交再度回落至10wt下方,情绪退温后,价格乏力。"反内卷"情绪带来的脉沖 反弹,最先表达为期价上冲;我们昨日也有提到,能带动的现货跟涨动能持续性并不够,导致基差快速压缩,个别区域或 牌再现期货升水,利于期现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。不过市场上对限产的关注度也在拔高,7月~8月预计会有不定期 限产行为,虽然从市场化的角度来看,钢厂生产利润不错,主动限、减产的意愿并不强,但行政性的扰动概率会增加,这 点要保持关注。当下现货受浓香影响大,市场看涨信心在淡季里并不坚挺,现货商不追涨,现货持货意愿不强,有利润快波 兑现以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路,情绪降温后或有短波段价格回落的风险。 胎色金属数据目报 | 2025/07/08 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - In the off - season of demand and high - inventory situation, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 5, 2025, SP2601 was 5276, down 0.08% day - on - day and up 0.42% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5040, down 0.51% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5074, up 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.20% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 5, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Golden was 4020, unchanged [1]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in June 2025 was 140 tons, up 3.3% from May. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations from May 22 to July 3, 2025 [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period. The delivery - warehouse inventory also had some changes during the period [1]. - **Demand**: From May 22 to July 3, 2025, the production of major finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed small - scale fluctuations, with a slight overall increase this week. However, the finished - paper prices were continuously low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 5, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 46, with a quantile level of 0.795; the Silver Star basis was 826, with a quantile level of 0.956 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 5, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, with a quantile level of 0.649; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, with a quantile level of 0.187 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued a slight rebound, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their upward trends. The main reasons were the economic resilience of China and the US, a mitigation of geopolitical risks, and a weakening US dollar, which improved market risk appetite and led to the commodity market rebound [3]. - The US labor market showed some resilience in June, but due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is needed. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in September [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. However, it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations, and Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. There are still concerns about the domestic economic development, and new incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. - In the short term, uncertainty in the commodity market has increased, and market volatility may intensify. Although there are positive factors such as economic resilience and geopolitical easing, the approaching end of the US tariff suspension period and slow negotiation progress may cause market disruptions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Labor Market**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 106,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is required. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and a rate cut in September is possible [3]. - **US Tax Bill**: The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. But it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - **US Trade Negotiations**: The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations. Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **China's PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 47.9%, a new low for the year [3][21]. - **Domestic Economic Concerns**: There are still concerns about the domestic economic development. Externally, the end of the US tariff suspension period is approaching, and the progress of trade negotiations is slow. Domestically, the real estate market has seen a decline in both volume and price, and emerging industries face pressure. New incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On July 4, the operating rates of PTA plants, polyester plants, and POY were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively [32]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: The data shows the trends of factory wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The data presents the average wholesale prices of various agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index [40].