农产品每日仓单合集 农产品组 谢 义 钦 投资咨询号: Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com 资料来源:国泰君安期货研究所 棉花仓单 生猪仓单 白糖仓单 仓单数量:生猪 (手) 仓单数量:白糖 (张) 仓单数量:一号棉(张) - 2018 1000 22 2023 2025 2025 -- 2019 35000 60000 | | | | | | | | | | 30000 800 50000 25000 40000 600 - 2026 20000 30000 15000 400 20000 10000 200 10000 5000 0 0 12-31 12-31 06-30 03-03 05-08 11-06 12-31 03-02 05-02 06-30 08-28 01-03 03-02 08-28 01-02 07-09 01-03 11-02 05-02 11-02 09-02 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 资料来源:国泰君安期货,钢联、wind、同花顺 | 农产品合单一 | 一览 | | | | | | | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on January 30, 2026, and the overall trends of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **January 30, 2026 Futures Main Contract Outlook**: - Index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) will fluctuate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - Gold (AU2604), silver (AG2604), copper (CU2603), aluminum (AL2603), nickel (NI2603), tin (SN2603), and lithium carbonate (LC2605) futures will have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and silver, copper, aluminum, and tin will reach new highs [2]. - Coking coal (JM2605) futures will fluctuate strongly [2]. - Crude oil (SC2603) and fuel oil (FU2603) futures will have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [2]. - **January 2026 Futures Main (Continuous) Contract Outlook**: - Index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) will generally show a strong or strong - fluctuating trend, and IM will reach a new high [5]. - Gold (AU), silver (AG), copper (CU), aluminum (AL), tin (SN), and lithium carbonate (LC) futures main continuous contracts will be strongly fluctuating and reach new highs [5]. - Nickel (NI) futures main continuous contract will be strongly fluctuating [5]. - Crude oil (SC) futures main continuous contract will have a strong and wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Coking coal (JM2605) will have a wide - range fluctuation [5]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: - Sino - British leaders met, reaching a series of positive results, including promoting bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership, establishing a financial working group, and China considering visa - free policies for British citizens. China also reduced the import tariff on whisky from 10% to 5% [6]. - The State Council issued a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, targeting key service consumption areas such as transportation, housekeeping, and online audio - visual [6]. - The Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 is expected to see 9.5 billion cross - regional trips, a record high. Highways will be free for small cars during the Spring Festival, and the railway group introduced new refund policies [6]. - The 2026 National Spring Festival Cultural and Tourism Consumption Month was launched, with about 30,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities, over 360 million yuan in consumption vouchers, and various preferential measures [7]. - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Finance advanced the central government's subsidy funds for assisting people in difficulty in 2026, amounting to 141 billion yuan, and implemented "small - scale and rapid relief" [7]. - **International News**: - The U.S. Congress Senate failed to advance a government funding bill, and the U.S. federal government is at risk of a partial shutdown [7]. - U.S. President Trump said that Russian President Putin agreed to suspend air strikes on Ukraine for a week due to cold weather. Trump also plans to announce the nomination for the next Fed chair next week and reopen the Venezuelan airspace [8]. - The U.S. trade deficit in November 2025 was $56.8 billion, a 95% increase from the previous month. Exports decreased by 3.6% to $292.1 billion, and imports increased by 5% to $348.9 billion [8]. - Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz from February 1 to 2, including live - fire shooting [8]. - South Africa is considering imposing a maximum 50% tariff on imported vehicles from China and India [8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On January 29, the CME Group raised the margin for COMEX copper futures by 20% and the initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures from 5% to 6%, effective after the close on January 30 [8]. - In 2025, global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, a record high, with a total demand value of $555 billion. Gold investment demand reached 2,175 tons, and gold ETFs increased by 801 tons [9]. - On January 29, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.32% to $5,410.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.98% to $115.78 per ounce [9]. - On January 29, U.S. and Brent crude oil futures rose, with geopolitical risks driving up supply - disruption expectations [9]. - Venezuela's National Assembly passed a bill to reform the oil law, allowing private and foreign investment in the oil industry [9]. - On January 29, London base metals showed mixed results, with LME copper up 4.73%, LME zinc up 2.65%, and LME nickel up 1.37%, while LME tin fell 2.6% [10]. - On January 29, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.946, down 7 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9506. The central parity rate was 6.9771, down 16 basis points [10]. - The U.S. Treasury added 10 economies to the foreign - exchange monitoring list [10]. - On January 29, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.20% to 96.16, and most non - U.S. currencies rose [11]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: - On January 29, IF2603, IH2603, and IM2603 showed different trends, with short - term upward or downward pressures [11][12][13]. - IC2603 had a short - term decline, with reduced upward momentum and increased downward pressure [13]. - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation on January 29, with different performances among major indices [14]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose on January 29, reaching a nearly 4 - year high [14]. - U.S. and European stock markets had mixed performance on January 29 [15]. - **Gold Futures**: - On January 29, AU2604 had a significant increase, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it declined, with increased short - term downward pressure [34][35]. - The precious metal market had large fluctuations on January 29 [36]. - **Silver Futures**: - On January 29, AG2604 rose significantly, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it had a wide - range decline, with increased short - term downward pressure [39][40]. - **Copper Futures**: - On January 29, CU2603 rose significantly, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it continued to rise, with increased short - term downward pressure [47]. - **Aluminum Futures**: - On January 29, AL2603 had a weak rise, reaching a new high. During the night - session on January 29 - 30, it continued to rise, with increased short - term downward pressure [51]. - **Nickel Futures**: - On January 29, NI2603 rose slightly, with short - term upward momentum [59]. - **Tin Futures**: - On January 29, SN2603 rose slightly, with short - term upward momentum [62]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: - On January 29, LC2605 declined slightly, with increased short - term downward pressure [68]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: - On January 29, JM2605 rose, with short - term upward momentum [72]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: - On January 29, SC2603 rose, with short - term upward momentum [79]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: - On January 29, FU2603 rose, with short - term upward momentum [84].

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 1 月 30 日 黄金需求静态极限：购买力模型锚定远期空间 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 本报告深入解析黄金价格与各方黄金购买力的量价关系，围绕购买力因子分析和多因子模型展开。当 黄金处于历史高位时，全市场对黄金的交易主线已经基本认可并消化，为了对黄金长期上涨空间有更为具 体的想象依据，我们构建出黄金购买力模型——区别于市场上以利率、美元指数等已经脱钩的因子来构建 模型，回归黄金上涨本质，买兴显著大于卖兴，持有意愿较强的同时买家仍有子弹。本质上是在探讨，当黄 金成为流动性的避险港湾、去美元化下的最终去处，如果集合市场上各方购金力量，到底能多大程度上推 升黄金价格，以求定量地估算出黄金的极值高点。 模型结果显示，Lasso 回归模型拟合优度 R^2=0.875。考虑到自变量存在多重共线性问题，选择 Lasso 回归模型。经 10 折交叉验证，Lasso 回归模型的最优正则化参数 alpha 确定为 0.5373。在此参数下，模型 测试集均方根误差为 168.0382，表明其对目标变量的预测精度良好。再通过 B ...

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/1/29 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | 王营 | Z0012691 | Z0002529 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixi ...

2026 年 1 月 30 日 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面跟随商品市场情绪波动 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4436 +61 | （+1.39%） 4419 | +4（+0.09%） | | | | | | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2802 | +25（+0.90%） 2783 | -15（-0.54%） | | | | | | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1072 | -2.75（-0.26%） | | | | | | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 295.9 | -1.7（-0.57%） | n a | | | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is expected to trade at high levels with high volatility, alumina is predicted to operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 25,590, down 50 from the previous trading day, up 1,535 from a week ago, up 3,405 from a month ago, and up 4,730 from three months ago. The night - session closing price was 24,935. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 3,234, down 30 from the previous trading day, up 96 from a week ago, up 278 from a month ago, and up 497 from three months ago [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 1,013,509, an increase of 76,398 from the previous trading day, an increase of 657,707 from a week ago, an increase of 787,888 from a month ago, and an increase of 887,083 from three months ago. The open interest was 342,527, a decrease of 20,306 from the previous trading day, an increase of 4,567 from a week ago, an increase of 27,434 from a month ago, and an increase of 183,348 from three months ago [1] - The closing price of the main Shanghai alumina contract was 2,816, and the night - session closing price was 2,783. The trading volume was 833,895, a decrease of 39,746 from the previous trading day, an increase of 269,738 from a week ago, an increase of 635,849 from a month ago, and an increase of 600,606 from three months ago. The open interest was 468,246, an increase of 1,530 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 20,892 from a week ago, an increase of 305,892 from a month ago, and an increase of 111,873 from three months ago [1] - The closing price of the main aluminum alloy contract was 23,850, and the night - session closing price was 23,165. The trading volume was 24,936, an increase of 1,546 from the previous trading day. The open interest was 7,725, a decrease of 1,120 from the previous trading day and a decrease of 10,189 from a week ago [1] Spot Market - The domestic average price of alumina was 2,648, unchanged from the previous trading day, down 9 from a week ago, down 110 from a month ago, and down 333 from three months ago. The CIF price at Lianyungang was 330 US dollars per ton (2,720 yuan per ton), unchanged from the previous trading day, up 1 US dollar per ton from a week ago, down 5 US dollars per ton from a month ago, and down 16 US dollars per ton from three months ago. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 308 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, down 5 US dollars per ton from a month ago, and down 15 US dollars per ton from three months ago [1] - The price of Australian imported bauxite (Al:48 - 50%, Si:8 - 10%) was 60 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, down 8 US dollars per ton from a month ago, and down 9 US dollars per ton from three months ago. The price of Indonesian imported bauxite (Al:45 - 47%, Si:4 - 6%) was unchanged. The price of Guinean imported bauxite (Al:43 - 45%, Si:2 - 3%) was 62 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, down 1 US dollar per ton from a week ago, down 8 US dollars per ton from a month ago, and down 12 US dollars per ton from three months ago. The price of Yangquan bauxite was 500 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, down 30 yuan per ton from a week ago, down 20 yuan per ton from a month ago, and down 50 yuan per ton from three months ago [1] - The pre - baked anode market price was 6,087, unchanged from the previous trading day, unchanged from a week ago, down 100 from a month ago, and up 422 from three months ago. The processing fee of Foshan aluminum rods was - 20, down 140 from the previous trading day, down 90 from a week ago, down 420 from a month ago, and down 280 from three months ago. The processing fee of Shandong 1A60 aluminum rods was 200, unchanged from the previous trading day, unchanged from a week ago, unchanged from a month ago, and down 50 from three months ago [1] - The refined - scrap spread of aluminum ingots was 1,371, an increase of 174 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 15 from a week ago, an increase of 816 from a month ago, and an increase of 1,126 from three months ago [1] Inventory - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 800,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous trading day, an increase of 32,000 tons from a week ago, an increase of 239,000 tons from a month ago, and an increase of 158,000 tons from three months ago. The warehouse receipts of aluminum ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 142,700 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, an increase of 3,800 tons from a week ago, an increase of 66,500 tons from a month ago, and an increase of 79,500 tons from three months ago. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 0 tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous trading day, a decrease of 509,300 tons from a week ago, a decrease of 519,600 tons from a month ago, and a decrease of 504,000 tons from three months ago [1] Profit and Loss - The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 8,745.89, an increase of 600 from the previous trading day, an increase of 1,137.08 from a week ago, an increase of 3,185.58 from a month ago, and an increase of 4,031.64 from three months ago. The import profit and loss of aluminum spot was - 2,207.28, a decrease of 509.12 from the previous trading day, unchanged from a week ago, a decrease of 340.49 from a month ago, and a decrease of 112.72 from three months ago. The import profit and loss of aluminum 3M was - 1,380.63, an increase of 17.61 from the previous trading day, an increase of 198.79 from a week ago, an increase of 460.01 from a month ago, and an increase of 457.41 from three months ago. The export profit and loss of aluminum sheets and coils was 3,822.36, a decrease of 19.83 from the previous trading day, an increase of 478.52 from a week ago, an increase of 46.89 from a month ago, and an increase of 695.42 from three months ago [1] - The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 167, unchanged from the previous trading day, an increase of 44 from a week ago, a decrease of 35 from a month ago, and a decrease of 130 from three months ago [1] - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 426, and the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy was 24,000, an increase of 300 from the previous trading day, an increase of 700 from a week ago, an increase of 2,800 from a month ago, and an increase of 3,500 from three months ago. The price difference between Baotai ADC12 and A00 was - 860, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 420 from a week ago, a decrease of 240 from a month ago, and a decrease of 460 from three months ago [1] Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

商 品 研 究 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 2026 年 01 月 30 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20260130 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 388 | 5. 374 | +14 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.416 | 5, 358 | +58 | | | | 成交量(手) | 215. 374 | 273.090 | -57.716 | | 期货市场 | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 263. 863 | 264.092 | -229 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 141, 442 | 140. 494 | +948 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -24.693 | -21.293 | -3. 400 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | -8 | 6 | -14 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -788 | -774 | -14 | | | 月差 | SP0 ...

2026 年 1 月 30 日 螺纹钢：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 热轧卷板：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,157 | 35 | 1.12 | | 货 期 | HC2605 | 3,308 | 26 | 0.79 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,026,450 | 1,785,380 | 40,974 | | | HC2605 | 434,547 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 1,547,118 前日价格 （元/吨） | 29,468 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3260 | 3240 | 20 | | | 杭州 | 3300 | 32 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 铁矿石：资金轮动，小幅探涨 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 15.5 | 1.98% | | | I2605 | | 798.5 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 555,392 | -9,221 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 卡粉（65%） | 881.0 | 874.0 | 7.0 | | | 进口矿 | PB（61.5%） | 797.0 | 790.0 | 7.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴 （61%） | 749.0 | 742.0 | 7.0 | | | | 超特（56.5%） | 680.0 | 673.0 | 7.0 | | | 国产矿 | 邯邢（66%） | 956.0 | 956 ...

商 品 研 究 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 714. 10 | | 2. 78% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 703. 90 | | 4. 99% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2636. 90 | | -2.52% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2639.70 | | -2. 38% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 526. 60 | | 4. 48% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 503.00 | | 9.59% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 2.035.00 | | -2. 89% | | | | 伦敦现货把金(前日) | 2.003. 50 | | -2.72% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 广铂(千克) | 20, 179 | -8.745 | 35,781 | 571 | | | NYMEX铂金(千克) | 63.330 | 9,746 | 101. ...