2026 年 02 月 24 日 橡胶：震荡偏强 20260224 高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 橡胶趋势强度：1 注 ：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 从近 5 年来的数据来看，春节后天然橡胶价格普遍以上涨为主。2026 年来看，节前国内天然橡胶泰混 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 315 | 16. 450 | -135 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | l | 16. 485 | l | | | | 成交量(手) | 165, 470 | 180, 678 | -15, 208 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 140. 235 | 152, 702 | -12, ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 【趋势强度】 动力煤趋势强度（基于北港动力煤现货价格）：1 动力煤：市场预期转好，短期价格或偏强 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 fanyuanyuan@gtht.com 1. 【基本面跟踪】 动力煤基本面数据 | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 同比去年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产地价格 | 山西大同5500 | 元/吨 | 572.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | | | 内蒙古鄂尔多斯5500 | 元/吨 | 522.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | | | 陕西榆林5800 | 元/吨 | 598.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | | 港口价格 | 秦港山西产Q5500 | 元/吨 | 718.0 | 7.0 | -7.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q5000 | 元/吨 | 638.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q4500 | 元/吨 | 556.0 | 7.0 | -4.0 | | 海外价格 | 印尼FOB Q3800 | 美元/吨 | 57.0 | 0.0 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 PP：C3 原料表现偏强，PDH 检修仍高 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 趋势强度：0 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 | 6568 | -1.20% | 333362 | -25314 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -118 | | -148 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -25 | | -26 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6470 | | 6500 | | | | 华东 | 6450 | | 6500 | | | | 华南 | 6680 | | 6690 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 盘面节前回调，上游预售压力不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the current situation of the crude oil market, including price changes, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news. It indicates that geopolitical factors are heating up, and the short - term crude oil market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI 3 - month crude oil futures closed down $0.04 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%, at $66.39 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 closed up $0.10 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, at $71.76 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures closed down $20.30, a decline of 4.22%, at $460.70 per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Different types of crude oils have different current states and spread changes. For example, Arab Extra Light's spread closed at -$4.66, with a month - on - month decline due to a significant expansion of the crude oil price disadvantage. Vasconia's spread turned positive, with a significant month - on - month increase driven by a deep discount in crude oil price [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties' spread closed at -$2.51, with a month - on - month decline due to disadvantages in refining value and crude oil price compared to Bonny Light. Saharan Blend's spread widened significantly, with a positive refining value, lower freight, and a significant price advantage [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH's spread opened at $1.74, with a month - on - month increase. The high trans - Atlantic freight was offset by a significant crude oil price advantage. Azeri Light's spread increased significantly, driven by a strong refining value and a significant price advantage [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend's spread closed at -$20.79, with a month - on - month increase (the negative value decreased) because the relative price advantage of the benchmark oil Urals weakened. Similar reasons led to the increase in the spreads of other crude oils in the region [6] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri's spread closed at -$2.03, with a month - on - month decline due to a significantly negative refining value. Napo's spread opened at $8.57, narrowing month - on - month but still at a high level, driven by a large discount in crude oil price relative to Dubai [7] Key Market News - The Trump administration is considering new "national security tariffs" on six industries. The National Energy Administration will release and implement a new energy system and a series of sub - field energy plans. Regarding the Iran issue, Trump prefers to reach an agreement with Iran rather than going to war. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia [10] Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral state. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10][11]

2026 年 2 月 24 日 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 期货研究 商 品 研 究 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/11 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/10 | 2026/2/9 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 777 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 787.5 | 779.5 | 773.5 | 775 | 1.0% | 1.6% | | 2566 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 2277 | 3795 | 4155 | 7702 | -40.0% | -70% | | 3972 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 2449 | 3142 | 4525 | 5279 | -22.1% | -54% | | 787.5 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 787 | 785 | 789.5 | 785.5 | 0.3% | ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including an overview of trading volume and open interest in the futures market and an in - depth exploration of the micro - liquidity of different futures types such as stock indices, treasury bonds, energy and chemicals, black commodities, precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products [1][21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Trading Volume and Open Interest Overview - The report presents graphs of commodity futures trading volume, open interest, trading volume - to - open interest ratio, and the year - on - year change of commodity futures trading volume. It also provides tables showing the price, trading volume, open interest, and week - on - week changes of different commodity and financial futures sectors [4][12][14] - In the commodity sector, different sub - sectors show various price trends, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, the precious metals sector has a price increase of 4.26%, while the coal, coke, steel, and ore sub - sector in the black commodities has a price decrease of 2.35% [12] - In the financial futures sector, different varieties also have different price changes and trading volume and open - interest trends. For instance, the price of CSI 1000 futures has a 2.27% increase [14] 3.2 Futures Market Micro - liquidity 3.2.1 Stock Indices - The report provides a table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for stock index futures' main contracts, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for the Shanghai 50 futures, the spread change unit is 1.815/2.2838, and the spread week - on - week change is - 0.4688 [21] 3.2.2 Treasury Bonds - A table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for treasury bond futures' main contracts is presented, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the spread change unit is 1.0022/1.0023, and the spread week - on - week change is - 0.0001 [26] 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The report shows a table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for the main contracts of the energy and chemicals sector, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for methanol futures, the spread change unit is 1.001/1.002, and the spread week - on - week change is - 0.001 [30] 3.2.4 Black Commodities - A table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for the main contracts of the black commodities sector is provided, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for iron ore futures, the spread change unit is 1.0016/1.0022, and the spread week - on - week change is - 0.0006 [34] 3.2.5 Precious Metals and Non - ferrous Metals - The report presents a table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for the main contracts of the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sector, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for Shanghai aluminum futures, the spread change unit is 1.0536/1.05, and the spread week - on - week change is 0.0036 [41] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products - A table of micro - liquidity - related indicators for the main contracts of the agricultural products sector is shown, including spread change units, spread week - on - week changes, average sell - one order amounts, and average buy - one order amounts. For example, for corn futures, the spread change unit is 1.0006/1.0006, and the spread week - on - week change is 0 [46]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cambodia's rubber supply is expected to increase slightly, and the reconstruction of its downstream processing industry chain does not affect global rubber demand, so it is bearish for rubber prices [2][94][95] - Attention can be paid to the fluctuation opportunities of periodic conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, but it is necessary to grasp the trading main line and take timely profit - taking for long positions [2][93][95] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cambodia Rubber Producing Area Supply - Demand Status and Future Development Trends 3.1.1 Producing Area Basic Overview: Resource Endowment and Industry Positioning - Agriculture is one of the pillar industries of Cambodia's economy, and natural rubber is regarded as an important strategic crop. The Cambodian government hopes that the rubber industry will bring sustainable benefits to all stakeholders [4] - Cambodia is located in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula in Asia, with a tropical monsoon climate suitable for rubber growth. The top four rubber - producing provinces in 2023 accounted for 67.89% of the planting area [5] - The earliest rubber planting in Cambodia dates back to 1910. After independence, the rubber planting industry reached its peak in 1967. After being damaged by the civil war, it gradually recovered. Currently, Cambodia is the seventh - largest rubber - producing country [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Supply**: The rubber production in Cambodia grew rapidly from 2010 - 2020, with an average compound growth rate of 23.52%, and the growth rate decreased after 2021, with a rate of only 3.43% from 2021 - 2024. The single - yield has been steadily increasing since 2019 and reached the median level of Southeast Asian producing countries in 2024 [20][21] - **Demand**: Currently, Cambodia's rubber export accounts for a large proportion, mainly exporting raw materials to Vietnam. With the production of Chinese - funded tire enterprises in Cambodia, the local rubber is expected to be in short supply, the direct rubber export volume will decline, and the tire export will increase rapidly. The tire export is mainly to the United States [33][42][45] 3.1.3 Development Bottlenecks and Future Trends - **Development Bottlenecks**: The rubber industry in Cambodia faces problems such as labor shortage, farmers' conversion to other crops, insufficient infrastructure construction, and unstable power supply, which may limit the growth of local tire production capacity [48][51] - **Future Outlook**: From 2026 - 2030, the planting area is expected to continue to grow with the upward shift of rubber prices, the growth rate of the harvested area may slow down, and the single - yield will steadily increase, with a slight increase in production. The government plans to increase the harvested area to about 331,000 hectares, the single - yield to about 1400 kg/ha, and the production to about 463,000 tons by 2030 [53][54][55] 3.2 Review and Comments on Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict Incidents 3.2.1 Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict Timeline and Market Response - **2008 - 2011 Thailand - Cambodia Conflict**: Rooted in historical territorial disputes, especially over the Preah Vihear Temple. There were several small - scale conflicts during this period, and the impact on the market was limited by macro - factors [60][61][62] - **2025 Thailand - Cambodia Conflict**: There were multiple rounds of conflicts, including sporadic and large - scale ones. The market showed different reactions each time, but the impact on the market was generally short - lived. The market gradually became more rational in evaluating the impact of the conflicts [70][74][83] 3.2.2 Impact of Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict on Rubber Producing Area Tapping Operations - The conflict mainly affects rubber production in terms of the scope of influence, impact time, and foreign labor. The conflict in December 2025, which lasted for a long time and occurred during the production season, had a greater impact on production. The conflict also led to the continuous loss of foreign labor in Thailand's 7 border provinces and Cambodian - origin foreign labor across Thailand [86][87][90] 3.3 Supply Expected to Increase Slightly, Pay Attention to Geopolitical Fluctuation Opportunities in the Short Term - Cambodia's rubber supply is expected to increase slightly. The reconstruction of the downstream processing industry chain does not affect global rubber demand, so it is bearish for rubber prices. The periodic conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia may bring market fluctuation opportunities [93][94][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, silver has a hedging property, and military demand is expected to grow continuously with the great - power game. The current structural tightness of the silver spot supports the short - term price. After a pullback, the risk - reward ratio is evident. It is expected that the annual high point is difficult to return, and there is a chance of a downward trend in the second quarter. In the medium and long term, the price center of silver will move up. [3] - Comparing platinum and palladium, platinum has more room for price increase. Platinum has both the irreplaceability of military rigid demand and emerging applications in industrial fields such as commercial aerospace and hydrogen energy, with a more diversified and rigid demand structure. Palladium's demand is mainly concentrated in the automotive catalytic field, and its demand growth has obvious uncertainty due to the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles. [3] - In the future, under the multiple backgrounds of the continuation of the global loose liquidity expectation, the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, the continuous release of military rigid demand, and the difficulty in alleviating the rigid constraints on the supply side, the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise continuously. [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. The New Normal of Great - Power Game - The Fragmented Pattern Brought by National Resource Nationalism - Since the beginning of 2026, driven by American national resource nationalism, the global geopolitical and external environment has shown the characteristics of the normalization of great - power game, the fragmentation of the global order, and the weaponization of the rule system, forming a fragmented pattern centered on "America First". [7] - The shift from multilateralism to bilateralism in the global order has accelerated. Resource protection and camp fragmentation have led to continuous conflicts and the general rise of commodity prices. The United States has broken the post - World War II international governance system, and the authority of traditional multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations has been continuously weakened. [8] - The great - power game has been upgraded to security competition and camp confrontation, driving the global arms race into a new round of acceleration. Platinum and silver have become irreplaceable core materials in the military industry chain, and their demand is strongly related to the geopolitical pattern and the intensity of the arms race. [9] 2. Military Silver Enters the Era of Rigid Demand 2.1 Silver's Military Application Scenarios - **Electronic System**: In military equipment, silver is mainly used in electronic and electrical systems, such as in the form of silver - plated connectors, conductive surface coatings, etc. In missile guidance systems, silver can reduce transmission losses and ensure stable signal transmission. In military communication equipment and aerospace, silver can also improve the reliability of signal transmission. For example, a Tomahawk missile contains about 10 - 15 ounces (0.31 - 0.47 kg) of silver. [11][12][15] - **Energy and Power System**: In military equipment, silver is used in high - power - density batteries and solar panels. Silver - zinc batteries are used in underwater weapons and main surface warships' weapon systems. For example, a single MK45 seawater - activated torpedo battery contains about 137 kg of silver equivalent. In satellite solar panels, although space - grade solar cells currently mainly use materials such as gold, titanium, and platinum, low - cost alternatives such as silicon - based batteries and perovskite batteries are emerging. [19][20][21] - **Special Materials and Coatings**: Silver can be used as an electromagnetic shielding material in stealth materials, and silver ions can be used in antibacterial and water - purification components in military equipment. [25] 2.2 Historical Military Silver Consumption - In the 1976 - 1978 fiscal years, the annual average military silver consumption in the United States was about 3.5 million ounces (about 109 tons/year), and in the wartime scenario, it was about 38.4 million ounces (about 1194 tons/year). [26] - By quantifying and summing up the silver consumption in missiles, satellites, and batteries, it is estimated that the military silver consumption from 2020 - 2024 was about 510 tons, and in 2024, it accounted for 1.4% of the global annual silver demand. It is expected that the military silver consumption in 2025 and 2026 will be 548 tons and 564 tons respectively. [30] 3. Platinum's Military Use Has Strategic Rigidity 3.1 Platinum's Military Application Scenarios - **Key Components of Military Equipment**: In missile infrared guidance systems, platinum can improve the recognition accuracy and anti - interference ability of target heat sources. In radar and electronic warfare equipment, platinum coatings can reduce signal transmission losses. In naval ships and armored vehicles, platinum alloys can resist corrosion and improve wear resistance. In nuclear military equipment, platinum can be used in control rod components or the shells of nuclear radiation detectors. [35][37] - **Core Components of Aerospace Engines**: Platinum catalysts in military aircraft fuel combustion systems can improve combustion efficiency, reduce fuel consumption, and meet emission requirements. They can also reduce carbon deposition and infrared radiation signals. [38][39] - **Space Propulsion Systems and Spacecraft Equipment**: Platinum is used in liquid rocket engines to trigger the decomposition of hydrogen peroxide propellants, in spacecraft small thrusters as electrode materials, in space solar cell electrode coatings, and in spacecraft thermal control systems. [43] 3.2 Platinum's Core Application Scenarios in the Military Field Have Strong Irreplaceability - Although there is no accurate data on the specific platinum consumption in application scenarios, it is estimated that the platinum consumption of a single military aircraft engine may exceed 500 grams. Platinum's applications in military and aerospace fields are irreplaceable, such as in rocket propellant decomposition, military aircraft engine hot - end protection, etc. [47][48][49] 3.3 Palladium's Military Application Degree Is Affected by Its Own Characteristics and Is Relatively Low - Palladium is mainly used as an auxiliary functional material in military and aerospace fields, with fewer application scenarios than platinum. Due to its performance limitations, such as a lower melting point and susceptibility to sulfur poisoning, it is difficult to replace platinum in core military scenarios. [53] 4. Historical Review of Local Wars and Views on Silver and Platinum Assets - After reviewing the price fluctuations of precious metals in the two months after the outbreak of 7 wars since 1970, it is found that gold rose 4 times and fell 3 times, silver rose 2 times and fell 5 times. For platinum and palladium, data since 1980 shows that platinum fell 5 times and palladium fell 4 times in the 6 wars. [54] - Historically, gold mostly rose during geopolitical conflicts, and silver mostly fell slightly but had significant increases in two cases. Silver has a certain hedging property, and its military demand is expected to grow if the new cold - war pattern of great - power conflicts continues. [54] - In the short term, the price of silver is affected by the structural tightness of the spot. It is expected that the high point this year is difficult to return, and there is a chance of a downward trend in the second quarter. In the medium and long term, the price center of silver will move up. [55] - In the past, the short - term performance of platinum and palladium in the market was more like industrial metals, with prices under pressure due to the impact of war on the real economy. However, since 2025, the pricing logic of the platinum - palladium market has changed, forming a multi - dimensional pricing system. The prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise further. [58][61][62]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 豆粕：规避春节长假风险 豆一：规避春节长假风险 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4613 | +112 （+2.49%） | 4693 | +117（+2.56%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2790 | +32 （+1.16%） | 2807 | +25（+0.90%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1136.5 | +13.0（+1.16%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 307.7 | +5.0（+1.65%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3100～3140， | 日照邦基： 较昨+20至+30； 8-9月M2609+20， | 节后 ...