Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Moving downward [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides updated fundamental data for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - It also mentions the trend strength for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, with aluminum and alloy at 0 (neutral) and alumina at -1 (weakly bearish) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,710, down 10 from T - 1, with a trading volume of 135,601 and an open interest of 4,092. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,614, down 8 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,992, down 251 from T - 1, with a trading volume of 244,775 and an open interest of 248,040 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,285, down 15 from T - 22, with a trading volume of 2,789 and an open interest of 8,016 [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The spot premium was -30, the Shanghai bonded area premium was 8, and the EU Rotterdam aluminum ingot premium was 222.5 [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 3,204, down 8 from T - 1, and the alumina Lianyungang CIF price was 3,255 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 309, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,300 [1]. Inventory - **Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 1.30 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 47.96 million tons [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total inventory of three locations was 33,928 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about trade frictions, US soybeans are weak, while Dalian soybean meal is slightly strong, and Dalian soybeans are in a low - level shock [1] - On September 3, CBOT soybean futures fell for the second consecutive day because of intensified trade tensions and concerns about insufficient exports to China [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3961 yuan/ton during the day session, down 8 yuan (-0.20%), and 3958 yuan at night, down 6 yuan (-0.15%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton during the day session, up 10 yuan (+0.33%), and 3069 yuan at night, up 12 yuan (+0.39%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1031.75 cents/bushel, down 8.25 cents (-0.79%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 282.8 dollars/short ton, down 0.5 dollars (-0.18%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, soybean meal (43%) prices were 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 to flat compared to the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 2990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan compared to the previous day; in South China, prices were 3000 - 3060 yuan/ton, with a change of flat to +10 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 6.5 million tons/day, and the inventory was 101.49 million tons/week [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 3, CBOT soybean futures fell for the second consecutive day. The main reason was the intensification of trade tensions and concerns about insufficient exports to China. The market sentiment has turned negative. China has not increased its purchase of US soybeans, and the US is approaching the harvest season [3] - According to a survey by Allendale from August 18th to 29th, the estimated US soybean production this year is 4.27 billion bushels, with a yield of 53.28 bushels per acre, both lower than the USDA's August forecast [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 04 日 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 短纤：下方空间不大仍震荡对待，多 PF 空 PR 持有 瓶片：下方空间不大仍震荡对待，多 PF 空 PR 持有 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 6350 | ୧3୧0 | -10 | PF09-10 | -60 | -80 | 20 | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6410 | 6440 | -30 | PF10-11 | 0 | -28 | 28 | | | 短纤2511 | 6410 | 6468 | -58 | PF基差 | 85 | 75 | ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - The zinc market is in a range-bound consolidation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,285 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,865.5 dollars/ton, up 1.15% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 117,964 lots, down 7,724, and the trading volume of LME zinc was 13,277 lots, up 5,867 [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 104,733 lots, down 2,929, and the open interest of LME zinc was 195,978 lots, down 866 [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -70 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was 20.44 dollars/ton, up 5.46 [1]. - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 40,947 tons, up 1,992, and LME zinc inventory was 55,225 tons, down 375 [1]. News - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut**: Fed Governor Waller said the Fed should start cutting interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the next few months, with the pace depending on economic data [2]. - **US Job Market**: US JOLTS job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low at 7.181 million, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The near - end game sentiment for eggs is relatively strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 3,011 with a daily increase of 2.62% and a trading volume change of 196,012 and an open - interest change of - 62,505; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,436 with a daily increase of 2.44%, a trading volume change of 28,519 and an open - interest change of - 3,877 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg10 - 12 spread is - 242 (previous day: - 236), and the egg10 - 1 spread is - 425 (same as the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Shanxi are 3.20 yuan/jin, in Hebei is 2.80 yuan/jin, and in Hubei is 3.22 yuan/jin, all remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,317 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,328 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Henan live - pig price is 14.08 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.18 yuan/kg) [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [- 2,2] interval, indicating a neutral sentiment. The classification of strength includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].

Group 1: Report Core View - The continuous reduction in lead inventory supports the price [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Price and Volume - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,865 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,998.5 dollars/ton, down 0.42% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 30,342 lots, a decrease of 11,881 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,559 lots, an increase of 2,250 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 50,638 lots, a decrease of 866 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 160,192 lots, an increase of 785 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -50 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.5 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the import premium was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -575.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.1 yuan; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third - month contract was -614.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63.5 yuan [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 55,874 tons, a decrease of 554 tons; the LME lead inventory was 254,550 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons [1] Recycling Market - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 59,225 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -306 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [1] Group 3: News - Weak US JOLTS job openings data strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller said that interest rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [1] - Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to use tariffs as a threat to oppose the UN shipping emissions agreement [1] Group 4: Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on lithium carbonate fundamentals, including contract prices, trading volumes, open interest, and various basis differentials. It also provides information on raw material prices and export volumes of lithium carbonate from Chile. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as neutral [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate - **2509 Contract**: The closing price was 72,080 yuan, down 1,200 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 94 lots, a decrease of 786 lots, and the open interest was 5,571 lots, down 2,123 lots [1]. - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 71,880 yuan, down 740 yuan. The trading volume was 442,800 lots, a decrease of 177,641 lots, and the open interest was 346,048 lots, down 2,061 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Volume**: The warehouse receipt volume was 34,118 lots, an increase of 2,111 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,820 yuan, down 400 yuan; the basis of spot - 2511 was 4,020 yuan, down 860 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 200 yuan, down 460 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 872 dollars, down 15 dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was not specified, down 35 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **SMM Battery - Grade Lithium Carbonate Index**: The price was 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Chilean Lithium Carbonate Exports**: In August 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 16,900 tons, a 19.2% decrease from the previous month but a 4.9% increase year - on - year. Exports to China were 13,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month but a 6.9% increase year - on - year; exports to South Korea were 3,000 tons, a 50.4% decrease from the previous month but a 35% increase year - on - year [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

2025 年 09 月 04 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：仓单累库，逢高布空逻辑 多晶硅：关注市场消息层面影响 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,490 | 20 | -35 | 130 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 275,841 | -69,772 | -100,354 | 88,827 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 279,742 | -1,738 | 4,184 | 103,578 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 52,160 | 285 | 3,470 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 362,759 | -168,019 | -139,651 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 149,2 ...

2025 年 9 月 4 日 棕榈油：缺乏持续驱动，等待回调 豆油：震荡调整 | | | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,346 | -0.36% | 9,340 | -0.06% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,454 | 0.38% | 8,338 | -1.37% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,900 | -0.50% | 9,732 | -1.70% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,441 | -0.74% | 4,422 | -0.45% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.83 | -1.58% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 656 | 382 | 1,233 | -650 | | ...

2025 年 9 月 4 日 沥青：OPEC 增产施压，地缘风险未绝 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,550 | -0.03% | 3,523 | -0.76% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,540 | -0.08% | 3,509 | -0.88% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 101,178 | (51,331) | 93,085 | (12,775) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 97,989 | (24,726) | 242,094 | 12,210 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 70300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨 ...