Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that it is not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda. The market will remain volatile in the short - term. Currently, caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers, but there is also no immediate downward driver for the spot. The futures are at a discount to the spot, and the valuation of the near - month contracts already incorporates the expectations of a decline in 32% caustic soda spot prices and delivery discounts [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 01 contract futures price is 2612, the cheapest deliverable in Shandong is 870, the basis is 2719, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda is 107 [1]. Spot News - Taking Shandong as a benchmark, the liquid caustic soda market in the province remained stable today. Due to the summit and military parade, transportation was hindered, causing some enterprises' inventories to increase. However, order shipments temporarily supported the market. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory changes of caustic soda plants [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Upward Driver Constraints**: The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda are exports and alumina. In terms of exports, new capacity from Vinythai and high supplies from Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. Export profits have not expanded, export orders have not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak. Regarding alumina, the high - production and high - inventory situation has continuously compressed profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new capacities of 3.6 million tons in Guangxi by the end of this year and 2 million tons from Orient Hope at the beginning of next year, before the inventory - building starts, the market is difficult to achieve simultaneous movement of futures and spot [1][2]. - **Overall Situation**: Currently, there is an expectation game in the caustic soda market. Before alumina starts inventory - building for new production and export conditions improve, the upward driver is insufficient. However, there is also no downward driver for the spot. In terms of valuation, futures are at a discount to the spot, and the near - month contracts' valuation already includes the expectations of a decline in 32% caustic soda spot prices and delivery discounts, so it is not advisable to chase short positions [1][2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [1][3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the sugar market, covering domestic and international production, consumption, import data, and price trends. It also mentions the expected supply shortage in the 25/26 global sugar season and the anticipated decline in sugar yield and increase in production costs in Guangxi for the 25/26 season [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.05 cents/pound, down 0.09; the mainstream spot price is 5930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5562 yuan/ton, down 37 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 28 yuan/ton, up 16; the 15 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 9; the mainstream spot basis is 368 yuan/ton, up 37 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **International**: Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons from 45.9 million tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil exported 3.59 million tons in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1]. - **Domestic**: CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of May 25, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.7%. As of July 25, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [1][2]. International Market - ISO first predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 23,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 488,000 tons in the 24/25 season. - As of August 1, 25/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.06%, a year - on - year increase of 2.93 percentage points. - ISMA/NFCSF predicted that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the 24/25 season. - OCSB data showed that Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farming groups significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to engage in the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - shifting driving force of the central price in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation and implementation for the July contract, and it is mainly bullish in the short - term, with attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,080 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2601 contract is 13,915 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2603 contract is 13,130 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] Market Logic - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farming groups significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to engage in the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - shifting driving force of the central price in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation and implementation for the July contract, and it is mainly bullish in the short - term, with attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] Futures Research - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 19,415 lots, a decrease of 6,627 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,596 lots, an increase of 208 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2601 contract is 7,959 lots, a decrease of 3,513 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,179 lots, a decrease of 577 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2603 contract is 3,160 lots, an increase of 315 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,475 lots, a decrease of 109 lots from the previous day [4] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the生猪2511 contract is - 100 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2601 contract is 785 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2603 contract is 20 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread of live pigs is 530 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread of live pigs is 165 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 155 yuan/ton [4]

2025 年 09 月 04 日 商 品 研 究 尿素：现货成交清淡，期货收升水 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,714 | 1,746 | -32 127052 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,737 | 1,747 | -10 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 285,785 | 158,733 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 232,728 | 219,382 | 13346 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,205 | 7,205 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 992,534 | 554,611 | 437923 | | | | 山东地区基差 | | -4 | -36 | 3 2 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -104 | -136 | 3 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG faces an expected increase in production from OPEC+ leading to a decline in crude oil costs [1] - For propylene, high spot prices are suppressing buying interest, and there is a risk of price decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,416 with a -0.11% daily increase and 4,381 at night with a -0.79% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,346 with a 0.09% daily increase and 4,308 at night with a -0.87% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,415 with a 0.16% daily increase and 6,387 at night with a -0.44% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,450 with a 0.28% daily increase and 6,419 at night with a -0.48% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2510 had a trading volume of 54,136 (down 27,754 from the previous day) and an open interest of 71,539 (down 3,109); PG2511 had a trading volume of 14,172 (down 3,362) and an open interest of 37,302 (up 1,207); PL2601 had a trading volume of 3,620 (down 801) and an open interest of 8,961 (up 815); PL2602 had a trading volume of 5 (down 29) and an open interest of 867 (up 5) [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 14 (previous day: 39); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 84 (previous day: 79); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 215 (previous day: 230); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 160 (previous day: 170); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 60 (previous day: 70) [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0% (last week: 75.7%); the MTBE operating rate was 63.5% (unchanged); the alkylation operating rate was 46.8% (last week: 49.0%) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for LPG is 0, and for propylene is also 0, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] 3.3 Market News - On September 3, 2025, the October CP paper cargo for propane was 542 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton from the previous day, and for butane was 515 USD/ton, up 1 USD/ton. The November CP paper cargo for propane was 551 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those from Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Also, Ningbo Jinfa's 1 (60) is expected to stop for maintenance for 3 weeks in early September [10] - There are domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, but specific details are not fully provided [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The futures index still has support [3]. 3. Key Points from Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Index Data - On September 3, all four major futures index contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped 0.96%, IH dropped 1.29%, IC dropped 1.3%, and IM dropped 1.22% [1]. - The total trading volume of futures indices rebounded on this trading day, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 876 lots, IH increased by 5491 lots, IC decreased by 6690 lots, and IM increased by 551 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 11,866 lots, IH decreased by 7211 lots, IC decreased by 9914 lots, and IM decreased by 2021 lots [1][2]. 3.2 Basis of Futures Indices - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented in the report, showing the differences between the spot and futures prices [1]. 3.3 Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in various futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) are provided, including the increase or decrease in long and short positions and the net changes [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues such as financial market operations, government bond issuance management, central bank bond trading operations, and the improvement of the offshore RMB government bond issuance mechanism. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.95%. The A - share trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan, down from 2.91 trillion yuan the previous day [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No direct industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each product, indicating their short - to medium - term outlooks. For example, - 1 represents a weakly bearish outlook, 0 represents a neutral outlook, and - 2 represents a strongly bearish outlook [11][17][28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, highlighting their current market conditions, trends, and future outlooks. It notes that some products are facing cost pressures, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties, while others are influenced by seasonal factors and inventory levels [4][9][16] 3. Category - by - Category Summaries A. Aromatics and Polyester - Related Products - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. It is recommended to do 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral prices have limited downside space, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [4][9] - **PTA**: Followed the decline in crude oil prices. Continue to focus on the 11 - 1 positive spreads for the month - spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [4][9] - **MEG**: With the decline of coal and crude oil prices, the valuation of ethylene glycol has declined, and the short - term trend is weak [4][9] B. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: The market is in a weakly bearish and oscillating pattern. In August, the prices of natural rubber and other raw materials fluctuated upwards, and the tire raw material cost increased. The full - steel tire market price was basically stable in August, and it is expected to remain stable in September [10][11][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it is in an oscillating and pressured state. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of butadiene is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [14][15][16] C. Bitumen - The price is under pressure from OPEC's potential production increase, but geopolitical risks still exist. The total weekly output of domestic bitumen decreased by 3.3% week - on - week and increased by 3.3% year - on - year. Both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][20][31] D. Plastics - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in an oscillating market. The demand for PE is improving due to the upcoming peak season for the agricultural film industry, but recent commodity sentiment has declined, affecting futures prices. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the East China region at the end of September [32][33] - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the medium term, there is still downward pressure. Although short - term demand has improved, the cost side is weak, and the supply pressure will increase in the future [36][37] E. Alkali Products - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short positions. The market will still have wide - range oscillations in the short term. The current driving force for caustic soda is insufficient, and the market is in a state of expectation game. The main obstacles to the rise are export and alumina [40][41] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating, with flexible price transactions. The downstream demand fluctuates little, and the procurement sentiment is not good [63][65] F. Pulp and Paper - **Pulp**: It is in an oscillating state. The spot price of pulp is stable, and the futures market has a slight upward trend. The supply side has support from the new round of foreign offers, but the demand side is still weak [45][48] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is oscillating at a low level with limited upward momentum [2] G. Glass and Methanol - **Glass**: The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The short - term supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and downstream orders have little change [50][51] - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamentals have significant contradictions, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports. However, the "anti - involution" policy provides some support to the overall valuation of commodities [53][56][57] H. Fertilizers - **Urea**: Spot trading is light, and futures are at a premium. In the short term, the export has not significantly driven the spot market, and the mid - term trend is still under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [58][59][60] I. Styrene - **Styrene**: It is bearish in the medium term. The short - term market is oscillating, but the mid - term fundamentals are weak due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the end of the "anti - involution" hype [61][62] J. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: There is an expectation of OPEC+ production increase, leading to a decline in crude oil cost [68] - **Propylene**: High spot prices have suppressed buying interest, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [69] K. PVC - The market is still under pressure. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may be affected by policy disturbances [79][80][81] L. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has been continuously retracing, and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [82] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward trend continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is oscillating at a high level [82] M. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a wide - range oscillating state, with recent price declines in European and US - West shipping routes [84]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 negative spread trading. Long on dips before mid - September for single - side price. Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading due to tight supply - demand [7] - PTA: Follow the downward trend of crude oil. Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading for monthly spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [7] - MEG: Short - term trend is weak due to the decline of coal and crude oil prices [7] Core Viewpoints - Due to weakening demand clues, Asian paraxylene prices declined on September 3. Spot PX prices may continue to fall, which may prompt producers to cut production in the short term [3][4] - PTA's profit margin is in trouble, and its price dropped on September 3. Its monthly spread is recommended to focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading [5][7] - MEG's internal market continued to be weak in the afternoon of September 3, and its short - term trend is weak [6][7] - Polyester's sales on September 3 were generally weak [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On September 3, PX price fell. The estimated price was 843 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars from September 2. One 10 - month Asian spot was traded at 844, and three 11 - month Asian spots were traded at 842, 842, 841.5 respectively. The end - of - session physical goods were negotiated at 844/846 for October and 841/844 for November [2] - PTA: On September 3, PTA spot price dropped to 4705 yuan/ton, with the mainstream basis at 01 - 51 [5] - MEG: In the afternoon of September 3, MEG's internal market continued to be weak, with the current spot basis at a premium of 86 - 91 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6] - Polyester: On September 3, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak overall, with an average sales rate of 3 - 4% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 41% by 3:00 pm [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [6] Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6810, 4732, 4331, 6410, and 493.2 respectively, with changes of - 0.35%, - 0.50%, - 0.18%, - 0.47%, and 0.57% [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The closing prices of PX11 - 1, PTA11 - 1, MEG1 - 5, PF11 - 12, and SC11 - 12 were 48, - 12, - 38, 12, and 0.5 respectively, with changes of - 4, 4, 3, - 4, and - 0.3 [2] - **Spot**: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 843 dollars/ton, 4700 yuan/ton, 4434 yuan/ton, 605 dollars/ton, and 69.43 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3 dollars/ton, - 27 yuan/ton, - 19 yuan/ton, 4.5 dollars/ton, and 0.52 dollars/barrel [2] - **Spot Processing Fee**: The PX - naphtha price difference, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference were 251.29, 188.78, 137.74, - 51.65, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 3.5, - 32.89, - 18.09, 38.94, and 0 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to break through new highs, and silver is expected to reach its previous high. Copper prices remain firm due to the weakening US dollar. Zinc is in a range-bound consolidation, and lead prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction. Tin and aluminum are in range-bound oscillations, while the center of alumina prices is moving downward. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel and stainless steel prices are in narrow-range oscillations [2]. - The trend intensities of gold and silver are both 2, indicating a strong bullish outlook. The trend intensity of copper is 1, showing a moderately bullish outlook. The trend intensities of zinc, lead, aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel are 0, suggesting a neutral outlook. The trend intensity of tin is 1, also showing a moderately bullish outlook, and the trend intensity of alumina is -1, indicating a moderately bearish outlook [8][12][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 814.88, with a daily increase of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 821.68, with a night - session increase of 1.40%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9820, with a daily decrease of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 9918.00, with a night - session increase of 1.34% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The number of job openings in the US in July reached a 10 - month low, strengthening the market's expectation of an interest rate cut. Fed Governor Waller said that an interest rate cut should be initiated this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months [5][9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 80,110, with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 80260, with a night - session increase of 0.19%. The London Copper 3M electronic disk closing price was 9,974, with a daily decrease of 0.39% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Weak US JOLTS job opening data strengthened the market's expectation of an interest rate cut. Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba. The African Kamoa - Kakula copper mine is expected to resume production capacity early next year [10][12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract yesterday was 22285, with a daily decrease of 0.18%. The London Zinc 3M electronic disk closing price was 2865.5, with a daily increase of 1.15% [13]. - **News**: Fed Governor Waller said that an interest rate cut should be initiated this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months. The number of US job openings in July reached a 10 - month low [14]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract yesterday was 16865, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The London Lead 3M electronic disk closing price was 1998.5, with a daily decrease of 0.42% [16]. - **News**: Weak US JOLTS job opening data strengthened the market's expectation of an interest rate cut [16]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 273,120, with a daily decrease of 0.31%, and the night - session closing price was 273,690, with a night - session increase of 0.21%. The London Tin 3M electronic disk closing price was 34,620, with a daily decrease of 0.33% [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, the number of US job openings in July reached a 10 - month low, and Fed Governor Waller advocated for an interest rate cut [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract yesterday was 20710, with a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2992, with a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20285, with a decrease of 15 compared to the previous day [25]. - **Comprehensive News**: Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to use tariffs as a threat against the UN shipping emissions agreement [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, with a decrease of 740 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,915, with a decrease of 45 compared to the previous day [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to US tariff threats. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial production stage, and environmental violations have been found in an Indonesian industrial park [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Wide - amplitude oscillation due to repeated macro - expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][11] - Coke: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - amplitude oscillation [2][14] - Logs: Oscillation and repetition [2][16] 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs are in a state of wide - amplitude oscillation or oscillation and repetition, with the trend intensity of all commodities being 0, indicating a neutral market outlook [2][4][7] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of iron ore (12601) closed at 777.0 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase. The positions increased by 12,928 hands. Among spot prices, imported ores like Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), etc. all rose by 6.0 yuan/ton, while domestic ores remained stable. Some basis and spread values also changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased. The trading volume and positions of RB2510 decreased, and those of HC2510 also changed. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of RB2510 increasing by 3 yuan/ton and that of HC2510 decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, with the export price up 2.2%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 6798.3 million tons, up 11.0% year - on - year, but the export price was down 10.3%. In the steel union's weekly data on August 28, production, inventory, and apparent demand of some steel products changed [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The trading volume and positions of different contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5250 yuan/ton and 5680 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the ferrosilicon basis increasing by 8 yuan/ton [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 3, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported. In May and June 2025, India's silicomanganese export volume changed month - on - month and year - on - year [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. The trading volume and positions of JM2601 increased, while those of J2601 changed slightly. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis of JM2601 in Shanxi increasing by 6.5 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [14] Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of different log contracts decreased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts changed significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the spot - 2509 basis decreasing by 46.3% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [19]