Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound trading [1] - Alumina: Slight decline [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides updated fundamental data on aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventories in both the futures and spot markets [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,560, down 45 compared to T - 5; the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,565, down 41 compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased, and the LME Aluminum 3M trading volume also decreased. The LME注销仓单占比 decreased, and the LME Aluminum cash - 3M spread and other spreads showed different changes [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,227, down 80 compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Alumina main contract decreased, and the spreads also changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,005, up 75. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The spreads and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [1] Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The pre - baked anode market price, aluminum rod processing fees, and other prices showed different trends. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,791.59, and the import and export profit and loss also changed. The domestic and LME aluminum ingot inventories showed different trends [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina increased, and the prices of imported alumina and bauxite from different regions also changed. The alumina enterprise profit in Shanxi changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12, the price of Baotai ADC12, and other indicators changed, and the three - place inventory decreased [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) increased [1] Other Information - Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, rule out the possibility of Treasury Secretary Bessent as Fed chairman, and announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours. He also criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and narrowed the potential candidates for the future Fed chairman to four [3] - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is weak, recommended to short PXN on rallies and conduct reverse calendar spreads for the monthly spread [8] - PTA: Trend is weak, recommended to conduct positive calendar spreads on dips for the monthly spread [8] - MEG: Trend is relatively stronger than PTA/PX, recommended to conduct positive calendar spreads on dips for the monthly spread and go long MEG while shorting PTA [8][9] 2. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to the lack of clear price signals and concerns about supply - demand imbalances and geopolitical factors such as Trump's new tariffs and potential sanctions on Russia [5] - PX supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices, while demand may be affected by the maintenance of some downstream devices, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern [8] - PTA has sufficient spot supply and weak basis, and the polyester industry's weak performance may lead to a downward drive for PTA prices [8] - MEG is supported by coal prices, and its supply is affected by the delay of some device restarts. With low port inventories, its price trend is relatively stronger [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - PX: On August 5, the price was relatively strong, with the end - of - day MOPJ price estimated at $580/ton CFR. The Asian PX price was range - bound, and the PX - naphtha spread slightly widened. There were no transactions during the Platts assessment [3][5][6] - PTA: A 120 - million - ton PTA device in East China is preparing to restart, and a 150 - million - ton device is expected to undergo maintenance soon [6] - MEG: A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Malaysia stopped due to an accident, and the main ports are expected to receive about 138,000 tons of goods from August 4 - 10 [6] - Polyester: On August 5, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average sales rate of about 30%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 47% [6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [7] - PTA trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [7] - MEG trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [7] Views and Suggestions - PX: Conduct reverse calendar spreads for the monthly spread, short PXN on rallies. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern [8] - PTA: Conduct positive calendar spreads on dips for the monthly spread. The spot supply is sufficient, and the polyester industry's weak performance may lead to downward price pressure [8] - MEG: Conduct positive calendar spreads on dips for the monthly spread, go long MEG while shorting PTA. Supported by coal prices, with low port inventories and some device restart delays [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market experiences intensified long - short game, with nickel prices fluctuating in a narrow range. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by supply - demand realities, while raw material costs limit the downside space [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,910, down 890 from T - 5; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,960, up 40 from T - 5. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 84,818, down 35,117 from T - 5; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 79,826, down 58,935 from T - 5 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,100, down 650 from T - 5; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 916, up 5 from T - 5. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,000, up 100 from T - 5; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,500, up 100 from T - 5 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario, Canada's provincial governor Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and will audit the entire industrial park [3][4] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [4] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government - approved 2025 work plan and budget (RKAB) production is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] - Two Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks' EF production lines have suspended production due to long - term losses, with an expected impact on nickel - iron production of about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) emphasized that mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [6]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 鸡蛋：现货看涨预期落空 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,330 | -1.89 | -55,278 | -4,144 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,630 | 0.30 | -4,556 | 1,152 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | 78 | | 117 | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -300 | | -260 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.90 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.73 | | 2.84 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | | 2.90 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.18 | | 3.33 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 玉米现货价格 | | 2,329 | | 2,329 | | | 豆粕现 ...

Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report by Guotai Junan Futures on August 6, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][4][10] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Core Views - **Nickel**: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate in a narrow range [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: The current supply - demand situation drags down the price, but raw material costs limit the downside [2][5] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates widely, and the resource - end disturbances have not materialized [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: It has a weak fundamental pattern, and market sentiment should be monitored [2][14] - **Polysilicon**: There are increasing news - related disturbances [2][14] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,910, with various price and volume changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,960. There were also changes in import prices, premiums, and other industry - related data [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten mining quota periods; and some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines stopped due to losses [5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of 2509 and 2511 contracts changed compared to previous periods. There were also changes in spot - futures spreads, raw material prices, and lithium - salt product prices [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. In July 2025, the domestic energy - storage market had significant tender and order volumes, with a high proportion of independent energy - storage projects [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: For industrial silicon, the Si2511 contract had changes in closing price, volume, and other indicators. For polysilicon, the PS2511 contract also showed corresponding changes. There were also changes in basis, prices, profits, and inventories [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Hebei Province issued a notice on green - electricity direct - connection projects, with specific requirements for eligible projects and grid - connection ratios [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), while polysilicon has a trend intensity of 1 (slightly bullish) [16]

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 | | 期指：上涨后的震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 毛磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | maolei@gtht.com | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4103.45 | ↑0.80 | | 3069.3 | | | | | | IF2508 | 4095 | ↑0.86 | -8.45 | 266 | 21739 | ↑1063 | 40900 | ↓262 | | IF2509 | 4082 | ↑0.84 | -21.45 | 554.2 | 45420 | ↑684 | 147312 | ↑504 | | IF2512 | 4051 | ↑0.85 | -52.45 | 123.1 | 10162 | ↑ ...

2025 年 08 月 06 日 锌：偏弱震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 【新闻】 1. 短债高峰来了，美国财政部本周拟创纪录发行千亿四周期国债。除了周四计划发行的 1000 亿美元四 周期国债，美国财政部本周还计划发行 850 亿美元八周期国债、650 亿美元 17 周期国债、580 亿美元三年 期国债、420 亿美元十年期国债、250 亿美元 30 年期国债。上周财政部已暗示，至少到 2026 年，都将更依 赖短债填补政府预算赤字。（华尔街见闻） 2. 高盛、花旗：若非农再恶化，美联储 9 月或激进降息 50 基点，利率终点 3% 或更低。美国最新就业 数据显示美国经济和劳动力市场正急剧放缓，已让华尔街确信美联储的政策拐点迫在眉睫。高盛与花旗等 纷纷预测，25 基点甚至 50 基点的降息最早将在 9 月启动，政策利率的最终落点可能下探至 3% 甚至更低。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Manganese Silicon: Market Information Disturbance, Wide - Range Fluctuations" and was published on August 6, 2025 [1] Group 2: Fundamentals Tracking Futures - Silicon iron futures: SiFe2509 closed at 5716 with a change of 42 from the previous trading day, trading volume was 220,383 and open interest was 145,226; SiFe2510 closed at 5704 with a change of 42, trading volume was 43,826 and open interest was 54,273 [1] - Manganese silicon futures: MnSi2509 closed at 6018 with a change of 46, trading volume was 283,346 and open interest was 254,120; MnSi2510 closed at 6026 with a change of 50, trading volume was 25,921 and open interest was 40,146 [1] Spot - Silicon iron spot price in Inner Mongolia (FeSi75 - B) was 5400 yuan/ton; silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia (FeMn65Si17) was 5800 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.5 yuan/ton - degree; and semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 620 yuan/ton [1] Price Spreads - Silicon iron (spot - 09 futures) spread was - 316 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; manganese silicon (spot - 09 futures) spread was - 218 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Silicon iron 2509 - 2601 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; manganese silicon 2509 - 2601 spread was - 92 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - Manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 spread was 302 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 spread was 254 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On August 5, silicon iron 72 prices in different regions had some declines: in Shaanxi it was 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton (- 100), in Inner Mongolia it was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (- 50). Silicon iron 75 also had price drops in various regions. Silicon manganese 6517 had northern quotes of 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton (- 50) and southern quotes of 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton (- 50) [2] - A steel mill in Shandong set the silicon manganese price at 6100 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory) with a purchase volume of 2500 tons. Steel mills in Guangdong and Jiangxi set their silicon manganese prices at 6050 yuan/ton and 6100 yuan/ton respectively (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory, based on standard) [2] - In July, the electricity price for silicon iron production was stable with some increases. In Ningxia, it was between 0.35 - 0.41 yuan/kWh, with a few increasing by 1 - 3 cents and most remaining flat. In Haidou, Qinghai, the off - peak price was 0.37 - 0.38 yuan/kWh, up 3 - 4 cents. The price of semi - coke increased, shifting the cost center of silicon iron upwards [3] - NMT announced the September 2025 shipment price of manganese ore to China. The South African block with a minimum of 36% Mn was quoted at 4.05 US dollars/ton - degree, up 0.15 US dollars/ton - degree from the previous month [5] - On August 4, the Ningxia Manganese - Based Alloy Industry High - Quality Development Conference was held in Pingluo County, Ningxia. It decided to establish working groups for supply, sales, technical quality, trade futures, supervision, legal affairs, and policy coordination, aiming to create a "Ningxia Model" for the manganese - based alloy industry [5] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with 0 indicating neutral [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend predictions and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends include oscillating repeatedly, wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance or market information disturbances, and strong - side oscillations [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton with a 1.01% increase. The previous day's position decreased by 18,144 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the exception of domestic ores in some regions. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,233 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.38%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,457 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton (1.89%). Production, inventory, and apparent demand data for rebar and hot - rolled coils in the week of July 31st showed different trends. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][9][10]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined. Other news includes steel production data from key steel enterprises in mid - July and price - related regulations [10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 80 yuan/ton, while the price of manganese ore decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - **News**: There are price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, steel mill procurement information, and news about electricity prices and manganese ore shipment prices [14][15][17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillations [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased by 2.9% and 1.2% respectively. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke types changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [19]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various log types remained mostly stable. The trend strength is 1 [23][25]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [25].

【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16775 | 0.15% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1963.5 | -0.53% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 40133 | -6065 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 7016 | -1913 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 72083 | 753 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 149440 | 2057 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -50 | -25 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -38.5 | -5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -60 | -10 | 进口升贴水（美 | 105 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -402.88 | 84.06 | 沪铅连三进口盈亏 ...