商 品 研 究 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，SMM，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 2026 年 02 月 11 日 铜：库存增加，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,560 | -0.27% | 101730 | 0.17% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,100 | -0.64% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 207,636 | -113,998 | 565,589 | -10,639 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,249 | -2,920 | 325,000 | -1,683 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 165,939 | 8,811 | - | - ...

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillatory adjustment" [1] Key Views - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 382,000 with a daily increase of 3.33%, and the night - session closing price was 386,250 with a night - session increase of 1.06%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 49,230 with a decrease of 1.17% [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 244,012, a decrease of 35,721 from the previous day, and the open interest was 32,207, a decrease of 1,418. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 460, a decrease of 42, and the open interest was 25,353, an increase of 5 [2] - The Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,385, an increase of 48, and the LME Tin inventory was 7,430, an increase of 400. The LME Tin注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 385,700, an increase of 12,200 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 389,800, an increase of 17,200 [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was -156, an increase of 1; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 185,830, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 5,620, a decrease of 9,980 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 371,700, an increase of 12,200. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 375,700, an increase of 12,200 [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 255,750, an increase of 8,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 244,750, an increase of 7,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - Shanghai has opened more than 5,200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads and will expand the open range as needed [4] - TSMC's board approved a capital budget of $44.962 billion for the construction and upgrade of advanced process capacity [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will accelerate the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the field of bidding [4]

2026 年 2 月 11 日 LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：现货持稳，基差收敛 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,251 | 1.36% | 4,272 | 0.49% | | 2603 | 61,724 | 8,527 | 29,320 | -7,543 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,560 | 0.64% | 4,569 | 0.20% | PG | 2604 | 33,004 | 2,370 | 76,891 | 2,124 | | 期货市场 | | 2605 | 4 ...

2026年02月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，节前资金离场限制弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游补库暂告一段落，节前盘面波幅减小 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游少量复产，情绪面打压盘面 | 6 | | 多晶硅：现货真空期，关注节后成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 11 日 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，节前资金离场限制弹性 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 133,350 | -1,170 | -1 ...

2026 年 2 月 11 日 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，节前资金离场限制弹性 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 133,350 | -1,170 | -1,480 | -12,760 | -5,740 | 13,670 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 13,740 | 5 | 155 | -800 | -120 | 1,135 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 281,436 | -135,669 | -381,928 | -241,960 | -839,990 | 198,572 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 140,567 | -61,676 | -236,446 | -339,425 | -271,27 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Platinum is in continuous shock consolidation, and palladium is in narrow - range shock [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 537.50 with a - 1.39% change, gold - exchange platinum at 549.47 with a 1.01% change. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 429.05 with a - 2.08% change, RMB spot palladium at 419.00 with a - 2.56% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 6,135 kg (down 7,342 kg), NYMEX platinum was 18,004 kg (down 12,597 kg). Guangdong palladium trading volume was 3,099 kg (down 3,052 kg), NYMEX palladium was 10,569 kg (down 3,611 kg) [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum ETF holdings were 3,279,592 ounces (unchanged), palladium ETF holdings were 1,200,822 ounces (unchanged). NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,369 ounces (down 63,072 ounces) [2] - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 11.97 (down 10.02), Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610 spread was 11.50 (down 2.90). RMB spot palladium to PD2606 spread was - 10.05 (up 14.45), Guangdong palladium 2606 to 2610 spread was 4.90 (down 0.05) [2] - **Exchange - Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 96.86 with a - 0.78% change, USD/CNY (spot) was 6.92 with a - 0.24% change, USD/CNH (spot) was 6.92 with a - 0.20% change, USD/CNY (6M forward) was 6.83 with a - 0.45% change [2] Macro and Industry News - **Policy Statements**: Trump believes the interest rate should be 2 percentage points lower. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and inflation [5] - **Economic Data**: US December retail sales month - on - month rate was 0%, lower than the forecast of 0.4%. ADP report shows US private - sector employment increased by 6,500 per week in the four weeks to January 24 [5] - **Geopolitical News**: Negotiations on Greenland are in the early stage, and talks will be held in the coming months. There are developments in the US - Iran nuclear - issue negotiation [5] - **Corporate News**: Alphabet plans to issue bonds to raise about £4.5 billion and over 3 billion Swiss francs [5] - **Domestic Policy**: Li Qiang emphasizes the rational development of rare - earth resources and key - core technology research [5] Trend Strength - Platinum trend strength is 0, palladium trend strength is 0. The range of trend strength is [- 2,2], with - 2 being most bearish and 2 being most bullish [4]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-11 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所长 早读 中国人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》 观点分享： 中国人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》指出，下阶段将继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关 注长期收益率的变化。针对市场对银行存款"流失"的担忧，央行分析指出，居民资产配置 调整最终会回流到银行体系，并不意味着流动性状况出现较大变化。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 石脑油 ★★★★ | | 石脑油：近端亚洲石脑油溢价持续上行，重石脑油对轻石脑油溢价来到同比高位，引发市场 | | 对于亚洲重整市场利润担忧。供应端来看，东西方套利物流减少或是驱动本轮石脑油溢价上 | | 行的主要原因，一方面美国由于处理委内瑞拉重油导致其大量重石脑油留在南美本地，而出 | | 口向欧洲以及亚洲地区体量急剧减少，另一方面西方对俄罗斯以及伊朗制裁导致油轮运费不 ...

2026 年 2 月 11 日 品 研 究 锰硅：南非锰矿节后或发运收紧，宽幅震荡 | | | 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5602 | - 8 | 23,815 | 34,411 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5580 | -14 | 99,225 | 166,811 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5778 | 0 | 17,433 | 40,293 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5818 | 6 | 132,582 | 374,337 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5320 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5650 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰矿:Mn44块 | | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may follow with a rebound and fluctuate; the spot price of soybeans is stable, and the futures price will fluctuate [1] - Despite the bearish USDA February supply and demand data, the soybean price still closed higher, and some brokers are optimistic about the increase in US soybean exports and tightening of inventory [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,499 yuan/ton during the day session, up 107 yuan (+2.44%), and 4,483 yuan/ton at night session, up 24 yuan (+0.54%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,734 yuan/ton during the day session, down 11 yuan (-0.40%), and 2,748 yuan/ton at night session, up 15 yuan (+0.55%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1,123.25 cents/bushel, up 13.5 cents (+1.22%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 301 dollars/short ton, up 3.4 dollars (+1.14%) [1] - Spot: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) is 3,040 - 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu is 3,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China, the price is 3,040 - 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan to unchanged from the previous day [1] - Main Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal is 4.53 million tons per day, and the inventory is 88.16 million tons per week [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On February 10, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to the optimistic outlook for US soybean demand. The USDA raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to 180 million tons, maintained Argentina's at 48.5 million tons, and raised the global soybean ending stocks to 125.51 million tons. The USDA kept the US soybean ending stocks forecast at 350 million bushels [1][3] - Some brokers are optimistic that US soybean exports will increase due to China's increased purchase target. Brazilian soybeans in Mato Grosso have quality problems due to excessive rainfall [3] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts during the day session on the reporting day [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 11 日 纸浆：震荡运行 20260211 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5, 202 | 5, 200 | +2 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5, 210 | 5. 180 | +30 | | 期货市场 | | 成交量(手) | 223.862 | 185. 219 | +38. 643 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 307.016 | 300. 912 | +6. 104 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 146. 427 | 146. 447 | -20 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -19, 970 | -21,847 | +1.877 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 48 | 50 | -2 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -622 | -620 | -2 | | | 月差 | S ...