| | 东北收购均价 | 元/吨 | 昨日价格 | | 价格变动 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | n a | | | | 重要现货 | 锦州平仓 | 元/吨 | | 2,340 | -10 | | | 价 格 | 华北收购均价 | 元/吨 | | n a | 0 | | | | 广东蛇口 | 元/吨 | | 2,440 | 0 | | | | 山东玉米淀粉价格 元/吨 | | | 2,770 | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌% | | | C2603 | 元/吨 | 2,274 | -0.52 | 2,270 | -0.18 | | | C2605 | 元/吨 | 2,279 | -0.13 | 2,277 | -0.09 | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | C2603 | 手 | 562,766 | 133908 | 956,567 | -88,239 | | | C2605 | 手 | 28 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The marginal driving force of stock index futures is limited, and it remains in a volatile pattern. On January 28, the monthly contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed gains and losses. The total trading volume of stock index futures declined on the trading day, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of IF and IH increased, while those of IC and IM decreased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On January 28, IF rose 0.08%, IH fell 0.03%, IC rose 0.66%, and IM rose 0.22%. The closing prices and price - change percentages of various contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are detailed in the table [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, with decreases of 62 lots, 4488 lots, 40713 lots, and 68320 lots respectively. The total positions of IF and IH increased by 15622 lots and 3905 lots respectively, while those of IC and IM decreased by 904 lots and 15637 lots respectively [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, showing the differences between futures prices and spot prices [1]. - **Top 20 Member Position Changes**: The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided, including net changes in some contracts [5]. 3.2. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.3. Important Drivers - **Quantitative Fund News**: There are rumors that regulatory authorities plan to implement the 'T + 3' system for the program trading of major quantitative funds, but many billion - level quantitative private equity managers said they have not received relevant requirements [6]. - **Fed Policy Expectations**: As the expectation that BlackRock's chief investment officer Rick Rieder may replace Powell grows, some futures and options traders are betting on the Fed to turn dovish. Rieder said earlier this month that the Fed's benchmark interest rate should be lowered from the current 3.5% - 3.75% range to 3% [6]. - **Stock Market Performance**: The A - share market showed narrow fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%. The turnover of A - shares reached 2.99 trillion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.58%, reaching a 4 - and - a - half - year high [6][7].

2026 年 1 月 29 日 胶版印刷纸：空单持有，3-4 反套 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/28 | 2026/1/27 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 | 4475 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4675 | 4675 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5207 | 5207 | 0 | | | | 税前毛利 | -482 | -482 | 0 | | 成本利润 | | 不含税收入 | 4 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货维持高位 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2602 | 4,338 | 1.10% | 4,330 | -0.18% | | 2602 | 738 | -161 | 1,350 | -602 | | | PG | 2603 | 4,286 | 0.89% | 4,289 | 0.07% | PG | 2603 | 77,168 | -36,545 | 92,829 | -2,844 | | 期货市场 | | 2604 | 4,566 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺120 | 3 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 5 | | 锌：现实偏强 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：逢高沽空 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：跟随抬升 | 13 | | 钯：警惕补涨 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：下游低位采买意愿增强，宽幅震荡延续 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，盘面亦有支撑 | 19 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪偏好 | 19 | | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 2 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 碳酸锂：下游低位采买意愿增强，宽幅震荡延续 | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 166,280 | -13,320 | -460 | 4,340 | 42,760 | 86,880 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 473,223 | 90,910 | 96,805 | -115,796 | -451,600 | 413,325 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 410,985 | -11,448 | -16,943 | -41,598 | -196,202 | 329,671 | | | 盘面 | 26 ...

| | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,270 | 涨跌幅 0.35% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,344 | 涨跌幅 0.80% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,326 | 0.82% | 8,342 | 0.19% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,330 | 0.04% | 9,373 | 0.46% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,272 | 0.33% | 4,295 | 0.54% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 54.35 | -0.11% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 513,486 | -174518 | 497,601 | -4,284 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 334,458 | -49,914 | 824,789 | 8,470 | | | 菜油主力 | 手 | 204,216 | -87,064 | 297,029 | ...

2026 年 01 月 29 日 短纤：高位震荡 20260129 瓶片：高位震荡 20260129 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6724 | 6658 | 66 | PF02-03 | -24 | -4 | -20 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6748 | 6662 | 86 | PF03-04 | -48 | -214 | 166 | | | 短纤2604 | 6796 | 6876 | -80 | PF主力基差 | -58 | -2 | -56 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 255805 | 189740 | 66065 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 690 | 6.660 | 30 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 205016 | 193912 | 11104 | 短纤产销率 | 60% | 68% | - ...

商 品 研 究 焦炭：一轮提涨落地，区间震荡 焦煤：区间震荡 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1134.5 | 18 | 1.6% | | | | 12605 | 1684 | 16 | 1.0% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 714203 | 498910 | -14256 | | | | 12605 | 13284 | 38137 | -292 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1640 1483 | 1640 1483 | 0 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1243 | 1243 | 0 | | | | 吕梁中硫肥煤 | 1400 | 1400 | 0 | | 现货价格 | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1234 | 1234 ...

2026 年 01 月 29 日 工业硅：上游减产，盘面亦有支撑 多晶硅：会议情绪偏好 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,760 | -100 | -20 | -75 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 243,714 | 25,922 | -36,861 | -24,721 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 235,683 | -6,942 | 11,996 | 19,129 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 50,805 | -1,095 | 1,105 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 8,361 | -2,863 | -7,123 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 41,415 | -24 | -2,5 ...