1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: Zinc, lead, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal are expected to oscillate upwards; industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester chip have potential for positive movement; palm oil is recommended for long - position building at low levels [2][9][12][37][50] - **Negative Trends**: Para - xylene, LLDPE, LPG, propylene are trending weakly; the container shipping index (European line) has a weak fundamental outlook [2][5] - **Oscillating Trends**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, iron ore, log, synthetic rubber, asphalt, methanol, urea, etc. are in an oscillating phase [2][6][15][17] - **Other Situations**: PTA has a rebound in monthly spread; MEG rebounds due to the recovery of coal prices; caustic soda's peak - season contracts are treated with a long - position bias [2] 2. Core Views - The market trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. For example, the tariffs imposed by Trump on copper products and other commodities have an impact on the copper market; the changes in Chile's lithium carbonate exports affect the lithium carbonate market [6][25] - Different commodities have different trading strategies based on their trends. For instance, for PX, a reverse spread for contracts 9 - 1 is recommended to be held; for PTA, a positive spread for contracts at low levels is advised; for MEG, a long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is proposed [54][55] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, but Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation affect the market. The trend intensity is neutral [6][8] - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate upwards. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and there are news about US - Japan trade agreements [9][10] - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price, and macro - economic news about the US affects the market. The trend intensity is neutral [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation. Alumina is in short - term oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all neutral [15][16] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation due to intensified long - short competition. Stainless steel's supply - demand situation drags down the price, but raw material costs limit the downside. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are neutral [17][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Chile's exports have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses. The trend intensity is neutral [23][26] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - **PTA**: The processing fee is at a low level, the load drops unexpectedly, and the monthly spread rebounds. The trend intensity is - 1 [2][49] - **MEG**: The rebound is driven by the recovery of coal prices. A long - MEG and short - PTA/PX strategy is recommended. The trend intensity is 0 [2][49] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in short - term oscillation. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has changed, and the market is affected by factors such as speculation funds and policies [56][57] - **Asphalt**: It is in consolidation after a decline [2][60] Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The fundamental situation remains weak. Hold short positions in contract 10 and add short positions at high levels if appropriate [5] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Polyester Chip**: The downside space is limited, and they are in short - term oscillation. A long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]

2025年08月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需现实拖累，原料成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：智利出口回升，关注矿证续期情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,070 | 160 | -650 | -2,300 | 530 | -3,560 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,935 | -25 | 15 | 35 | 295 | 200 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 87,840 | 3,022 | -65, ...

2025年08月07日 | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 5 | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭：偏强震荡 | 7 | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | | | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 铁矿石：震荡反复 2 螺纹钢：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 3 热轧卷板：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 3 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 794. 5 | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -4. 0 | -0. 50% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(于) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 358. 293 | -26. 208 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: With repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [2][4] - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal will adjust and fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: One - way auctions have started, and the market will fluctuate [2][10] - Corn: It will run weakly [2][13] - Sugar: It will trade in a narrow range [2][16] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][21] - Eggs: Market sentiment has been realized [2][27] - Live pigs: Near - term spot pressure persists [2][29] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2][35] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%, and night - session closing price was 9,006 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.40%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,406 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.74%, and night - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.19% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% [5][7] - **Trend intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and night - session closing price was 4124 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3026 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and night - session closing price was 3013 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46% [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On August 6, CBOT soybeans closed lower, following the decline in the soybean meal market. The US soybean growing area has good weather conditions. The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. On August 8, 10:30, CNGC plans to auction 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans [10][12] - **Trend intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental data**: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price decreased by 10 yuan/ton. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,259 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35% [13] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn port prices decreased, and prices in other regions also showed certain changes [14] - **Trend intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 16.04 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05. The mainstream spot price was 5970 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 [16] - **Macro and industry news**: Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - term average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16] - **Trend intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,850 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 13830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14% [21] - **Macro and industry news**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the cotton yarn market is stable. ICE cotton futures first rose and then fell [22] - **Trend intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 0.99%. Egg 2601's closing price was 3,624 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 0.11% [27] - **Trend intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [27] Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: Henan's spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton with a decline of 100. The closing price of live pig 2509 was 13,810 yuan/ton with a decline of 75 [31] - **Trend intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [32] - **Market logic**: The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the price increase was less than expected. The market pressure is large, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK510's closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22% [35] - **Spot market focus**: New peanuts in some areas are about to be listed, and the price of old peanuts is stable [36] - **Trend intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]

2025 年 8 月 7 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI9 原油期货收跌 0.81 美元/桶，跌幅 1.24%，报 64.35 美元/桶；布伦特 10 月原油期货收跌 0.75 美元/桶，跌幅 1.11%，报 66.89 美元/桶；SC2509 原油期货收跌 6.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 498.00 元/桶。 4. 白宫官员：对俄罗斯的二级制裁预计将于周五实施。 7. 美国至 8 月 1 日当周 EIA 俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 45.3 万桶，前值 69 万桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油：多单加空远月保护，关注美对俄能源制 （以上资讯来源于金十数据） 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：0 裁 商 品 研 究 1. 美国总统特朗普：汽油价格将低于每加仑 2 美元。与泽连斯基和普京举行峰会的可能性较大， 目前尚未确定具体地点。 2. 白宫：俄罗斯曾表示希望与特朗普会面；特朗普愿意与普京和泽连斯基会面。 3. 阿联酋国家石油公司（ADNOC）将 9 月份穆尔班原油官方售价定为每桶 7 ...

2025 年 08 月 07 日 对二甲苯：供需压力增加，趋势偏弱 PTA：加工费低位，负荷计划外下降，月差反弹 MEG：煤炭价格回暖带动反弹，多 MEG 空 PTA/PX 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6794 | 4724 | 4414 | 6414 | 505.9 | | 涨跌 | 6734 | 42 | 15 | 32 | -2.9 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.89% | 0.90% | 0.34% | 0.50% | -0.57% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF9-1 | SC9-10 | | 昨日收盘价 | 50 | -30 | -21 | -74 | 4.9 | | 前日收盘价 | 28 | -40 | -27 | -74 | 5.2 | | 涨跌 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 0 | -0.3 | | 现货 ...

2025年08月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 对二甲苯：供需压力增加，趋势偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：加工费低位，负荷计划外下降，月差反弹 | 2 | | MEG：煤炭价格回暖带动反弹，多MEG空PTA/PX | 2 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 4 | | 沥青：跌后盘整 | 6 | | LLDPE：趋势仍有压力 | 8 | | PP：现货部分上涨，成交清淡 | 9 | | 烧碱：旺季合约偏多对待 | 10 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 11 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 12 | | 尿素：利多不及预期，重回震荡格局 | 14 | | 苯乙烯：压缩利润注意止盈 | 16 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 17 | | LPG：成本支撑偏弱 | 18 | | 丙烯：短期弱势震荡 | 18 | | PVC：区间震荡行情 | 21 | | 燃料油：夜盘小幅转强，短期震荡走势为主 | 23 | | 低硫燃料油：短线弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差维持下行 | 23 | | 集运指数（欧线）：基本面延续弱势，10空单持有，逢高酌情加空 | 24 | | 短纤：下方 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Anti-Involution Policy Disturbs Prices, Fundamentals Determine Direction - Henan Region Lead-Zinc Research Report" [1] - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [2] Group 2: Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy indirectly boosts zinc prices by stimulating the sentiment of the black commodities market. However, most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and await specific follow-up measures [3][6] - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Supply pressure is increasing, and the surplus logic may become more apparent [3][9] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters [3][12] - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, but the upcoming peak consumption season may support demand. Lead smelters rely on by-products to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [3][14] Group 3: Impact of "Anti-Involution" Policy on Zinc - The "anti-involution" policy aims to clear out backward and ineffective production capacity, but it has no substantial impact on the zinc industry's fundamentals. In the short term, it indirectly boosts zinc prices by supporting steel prices and stimulating the restocking willingness of galvanizing enterprises [6] - Most companies are not optimistic about the sustainability of subsequent prices and demand and have no extensive production plans [3][6] Group 4: Zinc Industry Chain Analysis - The zinc industry chain is in a stage where profits are shifting from the mining end to the smelting end. Since the third quarter of last year, TC processing fees have rebounded from a low level, and the restart of high-cost mines has led to an increase in zinc concentrate supply [3][9] - Refineries and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a medium level in history. After the concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries in the first half of the year, the resumption of production and new project launches have increased supply pressure [3][9] - The surplus logic may become more apparent and be reflected in the accumulation of social inventories [3][9] Group 5: Zinc Smelter Profit Analysis - Zinc smelter profits are mainly calculated through processing costs, the 20/80 split, and by-product comprehensive returns. Different smelters have significant cost differences due to different raw material supply methods [11] - By-products such as sulfuric acid and small metals have stable returns, significantly improving the profits of zinc smelters. Sulfuric acid prices have been high, and small metal prices have been strong [3][12] - Many smelters are considering building new recycling production lines to increase the recycling and utilization of small metals [12] Group 6: Lead Industry Analysis - The replacement consumption of lead batteries is still weak, which restricts the supply of waste batteries. However, with the approaching peak consumption season of lead batteries, demand may increase [14] - Currently, demand remains good, and the proportion of long-term orders is stable. Lead smelters rely on by-products such as gold and silver to maintain production, and future demand is more promising in Southeast Asian countries [14] Group 7: Research Enterprise Details Enterprise A - Production: A lead comprehensive smelting enterprise with a relatively high operating rate. It relies on by-product profits to maintain production due to cost inversion [18] - Raw Materials: Purchases oxidized lead ore containing gold and silver from Inner Mongolia, etc. Non-lead concentrate raw materials include antimony-containing crude lead, lead-containing slag, copper soot, lead mud, etc. Raw material inventory can support one month of production [18] - Product Sales: Finished product inventory is generally low, but there is some inventory this year, all sold through long-term contracts to large battery enterprises [18] Enterprise B - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with stable operation of the primary smelter. Sulfuric acid production is about 900 tons per day, and the domestic downstream fertilizer demand and export orders are good [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic lead concentrate (about 50%), imports (about 30%), and the rest is recycled. Raw material inventory is about 20 days [19] - Product Sales: There is basically no finished product inventory, and products are mainly sold through long-term contracts. 10,000 tons of crude lead are directly sold to large smelters in Henan, and electrolytic lead is sold to downstream battery enterprises such as Tianneng [19] Enterprise C - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise operating at full capacity. It relies on by-product comprehensive returns to increase profits, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,500 tons per day and small metal production of about 100 - 150 tons per month [19] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses domestic and imported raw materials. Lead ore supply is tight, while zinc ore supply is relatively abundant [19][20] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot inventory is 4,000 - 5,000 tons, mainly sold through long-term contracts. Lead ingots have no inventory and are mainly sold to traders. Zinc alloy customers are mainly in the automotive and hardware industries in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [19][21] Enterprise D - Production: A lead-zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise with normal production scheduling. Annual mid-year maintenance has been completed [22] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate through long-term contracts [22] - Product Sales: Zinc ingot + alloy inventory is about 5,000 tons, and lead ingots have no inventory. Customers are mainly in Shandong, Tianjin, Hebei, etc. Pricing is under pressure due to strong downstream customers [22] Enterprise E - Production: A zinc comprehensive smelting enterprise producing 1 and 0 zinc, mainly 0 zinc. By-product comprehensive returns are good, with sulfuric acid production of about 1,000 tons per day and low production costs [23] - Raw Materials: Mainly uses imported zinc concentrate, considering grade and quality [23] - Product Sales: Inventory is at a low level [24]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 08 月 06 日 国债期货交割梳理与 2509 合约交割分析 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 宋子钰（联系人） | 从业资格证号：F03136034 | songziyu@gtht.com | | 黄民懿（联系人） | 从业资格证号：F03103956 | huangminyi2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 近期国债期货持仓量持续攀升，叠加上季和上上季合约交割率和交割量显著提升（如 T2506 交割率 9.3%、TF2506 交割量 1.05 万手均创纪录），2509 合约在持仓规模与正套机会驱动下，交割量及交割率可 能延续高位。然而，随着自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起恢复对国债、地方债及金融债利息收入征收增值税，2509 合约的交割逻辑和交割预期可能会发生转变。本报告对国债期货交割流程与优势进行了总结，并对过去的 交割情况从多角度进行了梳理和总结，从正套机会、利率风险和持仓量等角度，结合空方交割意愿和多方 拿券意愿等角度，对国债期货 2509 的未来交割情况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 6, 2025, and also gives the expected trend of some futures in August 2025. It also provides macro - news, commodity - related information, and the performance of various futures on August 5, 2025 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Performance on August 5, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly higher and rising, with varying degrees of increase [14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract falling [37]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, etc. showed different trends of rising or falling, with some showing weak rebounds and some showing downward pressure [42][48][52]. 2. Futures Market Forecast on August 6, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4100 and 4122 points, and support levels at 4080 and 4060 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year T2509 and 30 - year TL2509 are expected to be strongly volatile [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, and polycrystalline silicon are expected to be strongly volatile; copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as glass, soda ash, etc. are expected to be weakly volatile; industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][3]. 3. Futures Market Forecast in August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM are all expected to be strongly volatile [18][19]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold and silver are expected to be strongly and widely volatile; copper, aluminum, and iron ore are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; rebar is expected to be weakly and widely volatile; crude oil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [42][52][77][85]. 4. Macro - News - China is implementing a series of policies, including free pre - school education, financial support for new industrialization, and health - environment promotion [8]. - The US trade deficit has shrunk, and economic data such as the ISM non - manufacturing index are mixed; Japan may raise interest rates; the eurozone's comprehensive PMI has rebounded slightly [9][10][11]. 5. Commodity - Related Information - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has issued an initiative for the photovoltaic industry; the trading volume and turnover of the domestic futures market in July have increased significantly [11]. - On August 5, international oil prices fell, precious metals rose, and base metals showed mixed trends [12].