Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has a relatively low valuation on the futures market, and investors should pay attention to the risk of position reduction [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of propylene is tightening, and there is certain support for its price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: On August 12, 2025, PG2509 closed at 3,799 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a night - session close of 3,788 with a decline of 0.29%; PG2510 closed at 4,273 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a night - session close of 4,268 with a decline of 0.12%; PL2601 closed at 6,491 with a daily increase of 0.62% and a night - session close of 6,498 with an increase of 0.11%; PL2602 closed at 6,541 with a daily increase of 0.60% and a night - session close of 6,559 with an increase of 0.28% [1]. - **LPG Positions and Trading Volumes**: PG2509 had a trading volume of 72,506, a decrease of 26,484 from the previous day, and a position of 105,831, a decrease of 2,800; PG2510 had a trading volume of 26,378, a decrease of 3,884, and a position of 90,819, an increase of 603; PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,288, an increase of 101, and a position of 4,453, a decrease of 294; PL2602 had a trading volume of 39 and a decrease of 10 [1]. - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 521 (previous day: 576); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 601 (previous day: 626); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 49 (previous day: - 151); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 91 (previous day: - 126); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 166 (previous day: - 126) [1]. - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.8% (last week: 72.6%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.6% (last week: 67.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 50.0% (last week: 48.8%) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]. 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 8, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 522 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 492 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 537 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; for butane, it was 507 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times dating back to 2023 and some end times still undetermined [9]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many factories, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different start and end times and varying loss volumes [10].

2025年08月12日 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地供需两旺，低多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，关注国内后续采购 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易缓和情绪，美豆偏强、连粕偏弱 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：盘面承压 | 6 | | 棉花：延续震荡走势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货存在反弹情绪 | 10 | | 生猪：现货弱势，维持反套 | 11 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 12 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 【宏观及行业新闻】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：产地供需两旺，低多为主 豆油：美豆驱动不足，关注国内后续采购 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,218 | 涨跌幅 2.65% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,236 | 涨跌幅 0.20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-08-12 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-08-12 所长 早读 中美关税继续休战 90 天 观点分享： 据新华社 8 月 12 日电，中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明发布。声明表示双方忆及日内 瓦联合声明下所作承诺，并同意于 2025 年 8 月 12 日前采取以下举措：一、美国将继续修改 2025 年 4 月 2 日第 14257 号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别 行政区商品）加征从价关税的实施，自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天， 同时保留按该行政令规定对这些商品加征的剩余 10%的关税。二、中国将继续（一）修改税 委会公告 2025 年第 4 号规定的对美国商品加征的从价关税的实施，自 2025 年 8 月 12 日起 再次暂停实施 24%的关税 90 天，同时保留对这些商品加征的剩余 10%的关税；并（二）根 据日内瓦联合声明的商定，采取或者维持必要措施，暂停或取消针对美国的非关税反制措施。 另稍早前据路透社、彭博社及联合早报报道，有白宫官员表示特朗普已签署行政令，延长对 华关税宽 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: It is running strongly [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The night - trading price of coking coal has risen. Attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market information disturbances [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,130, with a series of changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,225, also showing different changes over time. There were also detailed data on production, industry chain, and relevant prices such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news items, including Ontario's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP in Indonesia, plans to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, changes in the RKAB production plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and a steel mill's production reduction in Shandong [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were provided, as well as information on the basis, raw materials, and product prices in the lithium carbonate industry chain [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. CATL suspended mining operations due to an expired mining license and is applying for renewal. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 54.0%, with changes in the market shares of different brands [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the Si2511 and PS2511 contracts was given, along with data on the basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The first - phase project of the Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project is in the final construction stage, with a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan and planned production capacities of industrial silicon and high - purity ferrosilicon [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold: Tariff false alarm affects price spread [2] - Silver: Minor rebound [2] - Copper: Strong domestic spot prices support the price [2] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Lead: Reduced smelting output supports the price [2] - Tin: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Alumina: Slight upward movement in a sideways trend [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: The supporting logic at the ore end weakens, and the logic at the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with steel prices oscillating [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Gold and silver prices declined, with Comex gold 2510 down 1.87% and Comex silver 2510 down 2.25% [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes of gold and silver futures decreased, and open interests also showed changes [5] - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 5, and SLV silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 68 [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Comex gold inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 83,720 ounces, and Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) increased by 370,507 ounces [5] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of gold and silver showed different degrees of change [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1 [7] Copper - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.68%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk fell 0.42% [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 27,135, and the open interest increased by 3,992 [9] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,003 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 150 tons [9] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of copper showed different degrees of change [9] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.33%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.66% [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 6,337, and the open interest decreased by 1,509 [12] - **Price Spread and Inventory Changes**: Various price spreads and inventory of zinc showed different degrees of change [12] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14] Lead - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.24%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk fell 0.17% [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 4,615, and the open interest decreased by 4,728 [15] - **Price Spread and Inventory Changes**: Various price spreads and inventory of lead showed different degrees of change [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.22%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk rose 0.33% [18] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 10,109, and the open interest decreased by 117 [18] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 143 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 40 tons [18] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of tin showed different degrees of change [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is -1 [24] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract, alumina main contract, and cast aluminum alloy main contract showed different price changes [25] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes and open interests of these contracts showed different degrees of change [25] - **Inventory and Price Spread Changes**: Inventory and price spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change [25] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract showed price increases [28] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes and open interests of these contracts showed different degrees of change [28] - **Industry News**: There were news about nickel export threats, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension in the nickel and stainless steel industries [28][29][30] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a reversal in carbon prices. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading may lead to signs of a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, upward momentum may be released and prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - **CEA**: The main target is weakly volatile. There are 26.9 tons for listing and 10.0 tons for bulk trading. The daily average trading volume in the week exceeds 600,000 tons, and the CEA price has been falling. For different years' CEA, the closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 72.93 yuan/ton, and 73.20 yuan/ton respectively; the price changes are 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.27%, and 0.07% respectively; the total trading volumes are 0.00 tons, 0.00 tons, 2.00 tons, 6.00 tons, and 28.91 tons respectively [4][8]. - **CCER**: The listing agreement trading volume is 70,000 tons, the average trading price is 78.00 yuan/ton (-5.33%), the trading amount is 5.46 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4771 million tons [4][10]. Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances is the realistic support for carbon price reversal. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate, and from September, prices may rise due to compliance pressure [6].

General Information - The report date is August 11, 2025 [1] - The core view is that for stock index options, with the upward movement and decreasing volatility, a covered call strategy can be considered [1] Market Data Statistics Underlying Market Statistics - The closing price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index was 2789.90, up 0.72, with a trading volume of 43.48 billion hands, an increase of 4.56 billion hands. The current - month synthetic futures price was 2790.47, with a basis of 0.57, and the next - month synthetic futures price was 2793.13, with a basis of 3.24 [2] - The closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4122.51, up 17.54, with a trading volume of 190.44 billion hands, an increase of 17.27 billion hands. The current - month synthetic futures price was 4119.40, with a basis of - 3.11, and the next - month synthetic futures price was 4109.87, with a basis of - 12.64 [2] - The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 6943.94, up 105.81, with a trading volume of 260.97 billion hands, an increase of 9.50 billion hands. The current - month synthetic futures price was 6926.33, with a basis of - 17.60, and the next - month synthetic futures price was 6860.13, with a basis of - 83.80 [2] Option Market Statistics - For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Option, the trading volume was 44922, an increase of 15604, the open interest was 78144, an increase of 3462, VL - PCR was 59.91%, OI - PCR was 53.47%, the C - maximum open interest (near - month) was 2800, and the P - maximum open interest (near - month) was 2750 [2] - For the CSI 300 Index Option, the trading volume was 116426, an increase of 37090, the open interest was 211865, an increase of 2426, VL - PCR was 55.35%, OI - PCR was 75.11%, the C - maximum open interest (near - month) was 4150, and the P - maximum open interest (near - month) was 4100 [2] - For the CSI 1000 Index Option, the trading volume was 321756, an increase of 105966, the open interest was 294708, an increase of 1052, VL - PCR was 77.77%, OI - PCR was 115.94%, the C - maximum open interest (near - month) was 7000, and the P - maximum open interest (near - month) was 6500 [2] Option Volatility Statistics Near - Month - The ATM - IV of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Option was 11.76%, with an IV change of 0.07%, the same - term HV was 3.67%, with an HV change of - 3.47%, Skew was 3.19%, with a Skew change of 4.83%, and VIX was 17.79, with a VIX change of 0.750 [5] - The ATM - IV of the CSI 300 Index Option was 11.12%, with an IV change of - 0.13%, the same - term HV was 4.46%, with an HV change of - 2.43%, Skew was 3.96%, with a Skew change of 15.32%, and VIX was 17.71, with a VIX change of 0.081 [5] - The ATM - IV of the CSI 1000 Index Option was 16.44%, with an IV change of - 0.36%, the same - term HV was 13.83%, with an HV change of 3.68%, Skew was 0.27%, with a Skew change of 6.94%, and VIX was 22.28, with a VIX change of 0.321 [5] Next - Month - The ATM - IV of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Option was 14.13%, with an IV change of 0.11%, the same - term HV was 8.00%, with an HV change of - 0.01%, and Skew was 9.40%, with a Skew change of 5.12% [5] - The ATM - IV of the CSI 300 Index Option was 14.25%, with an IV change of - 0.14%, the same - term HV was 8.70%, with an HV change of 0.04%, and Skew was 7.35%, with a Skew change of 3.52% [5] - The ATM - IV of the CSI 1000 Index Option was 18.15%, with an IV change of 0.13%, the same - term HV was 10.81%, with an HV change of 0.66%, and Skew was 0.20%, with a Skew change of 1.21% [5] Option Types and Related Charts Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [9] CSI 300 Index Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [13] CSI 1000 Index Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [17] Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [21] Huatai - Peregrine 300ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [28] Southern CSI 500ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [38] ChinaAMC STAR 50ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [43] E Fund STAR 50ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [53] Harvest 300ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [57] Harvest CSI 500ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [59] ChiNext ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [66] Shenzhen 100ETF Option - There are charts of the full - contract PCR, the main - contract skew trend, the volatility cone, and the volatility term structure [68]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 11 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整震荡 豆一：盘面偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 4090 -9 （-0.22%） | 4076 -17（-0.42%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3094 +26（+0.85%） | 3094 +6（+0.19%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 986.5 -7.25（-0.73%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285 -0.2 （-0.07%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 较昨持平至+20； 2960～3000， 持平； 持平； 60， 8-9月M2509+30/+60， | 现货基差M2509-100/-60/-30， 持平； 8月M2509- ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the container shipping index (European route) will experience further pressure on its fundamentals in September, with a likely scenario of reduced supply and demand. It is recommended to hold short positions on the EC2510 contract and add positions on price increases, with an upper resistance level of 1500 - 1550 points. However, there are potential upward risks that may prevent a smooth downward trend in the EC2510 contract [12]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Performance - The container shipping index (European route) has been fluctuating in the past week. The EC2510 contract closed at 1436.0 points, down 12 points for the week; the EC2512 contract closed at 1760.0 points, up 67.6 points; and the EC2508 contract closed at 2071.0 points, down 55.5 points [9]. 3.2 Freight Rates - The market freight rate has dropped to around $2900/FEU. Different alliances have different freight rate trends, with the OA and MSC FAK centers still around $3000/FEU. It is expected that the market FAK freight rate center may be in the range of $2500 - $2600/FEU by the end of August [10]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: In August, the weekly average capacity decreased from 32.8 to 32.5 million TEU, mainly due to the cancellation of an independent overtime ship on the Evergreen CES route in week 35. In September, the weekly average capacity is expected to decrease from 31.8 to 30.8 million TEU, a 5.4% decrease from August and a 2.3% increase from July. In October, the weekly average capacity is 29.1 million TEU, but this figure has limited reference value [11]. - **Demand**: Since mid - August, the overall market cargo volume has shown a mild downward trend, and the booking rate has slowed down since week 34 [11]. 3.4 Strategy - Hold short positions on the EC2510 contract and add positions on price increases, with an upper resistance level of 1500 - 1550 points. Potential upward risks include the slowdown of cargo volume decline and the possible improvement of market sentiment due to the approaching delivery of the EC2508 contract [12].