国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 775 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 -10。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 910 元/方，较上 周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 805 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市 场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到10月19日，10月从新西兰出发的船只总共有33条，其中有26条去往中国大陆，7 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：价格大幅反弹，FU强势明显 观点 本周燃料油价格大幅反弹，价格逐步脱离前期的低价区间。高硫方面，美国再次发布针对俄罗斯的制裁，由于这次制裁将两家全俄罗斯最大 的石油公司纳入制裁名单，市场开始计价俄罗斯燃料油出口继续 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：震荡运行，上方空间收窄 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251016-1022)，中国尿素生产企业产量：127.79万吨，较上期跌4.26万吨，环比跌3.23%。周期内新增2家企业装置停车，3家停车装置恢复生产，同 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量小幅下跌。下周，中国尿素周产量预计133万吨附近，较本期小幅增加。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，4-5家停 | | | | 车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量增加的概率较大。（隆众资讯） | | 需求 | • • | 内需方面，内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显下滑。此外，复 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's judgment of international relations tends to swing between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. Market volatility may persist as it overreacts to fast - changing international relations while having relatively well - formed expectations for slow - changing variables like interest rates [4]. - China's Q3 GDP in 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, meeting expectations and laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target. Industrial production rebounded significantly, but consumer spending, real estate, and fixed - asset investment were drags [4]. - After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, broad - based indexes rose, and the deepening of the management of local state - owned "three capitals" also boosted market sentiment this week [4]. - A - share trading volume further shrank to less than 2 trillion yuan per day, and the margin balance generally increased, with most of the outflows from last week being replenished. All indexes had similar weekly gains [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - **Basis Changes**: This week, the basis of each futures variety fluctuated less, and the overall discount narrowed compared to last week. By the end of this Friday, the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM converged to around 2.6%, 8.9%, and 11.4% respectively. The near - month contracts in the term structure moved down slightly, with little change overall, and diversified hedging can be maintained [5]. - **Basis Data Table**: Detailed data on the last week's basis, this week's basis, basis changes, and index - enhanced annualized returns for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, in the IF contracts, the basis of IF2511 changed from - 18.43 last week to - 12.28 this week, with a change of 6.15 and an index - enhanced annualized return of 4.7% [2]. - **Basis Considering Dividends**: Data on the closing price, basis considering dividends, expected total dividend points, and annualized premium/discount rate for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented. For instance, for the IF2511 contract, the closing price is 4648.40, the basis considering dividends is - 10.88, the expected total dividend points are 1.40, and the annualized discount rate is - 3.04% [6]. 3.2. Hedging Profits and Losses - **Hedging Profit and Loss Data Table**: Data on last week's and this week's hedging profits and losses for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, the hedging profit of IF2511 last week was 2.00, and this week it was - 6.15 [13]. - **Hedging Profit and Loss Charts**: Charts showing the 60 - trading - day cumulative hedging profits and losses for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, visually reflecting the changes in hedging profits and losses [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market's judgment on international relations tends to swing between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. The market has sufficient expectations for slow - changing variables like interest rates but overreacts to fast - changing international relations variables, and market volatility may continue [2] - China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, meeting expectations. Industrial production rebounded significantly and capacity utilization improved, but household consumption, real estate, and fixed - asset investment were drags [2] - After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the deepening of local state - owned "three - capital" management, the A - share market showed positive performance. A - share trading volume shrank to less than 2 trillion per day, and the margin balance rebounded, with each index rising between 2.9% - 4% on the weekly line [2] - This week, the basis of each variety fluctuated less, and the overall discount narrowed compared to last week. As of Friday, the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM converged to around 2.6%, 8.9%, and 11.4% respectively [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Review - International relations news affected market sentiment. For example, the US's signal of easing relations led to a rapid decline in gold prices, and the economic consultations among China, the US, and Malaysia led to a rapid rebound in the A - share market driven by the Hong Kong stock market [2] - China's Q3 GDP growth met expectations. Industrial production and capacity utilization improved, but household consumption, real estate, and fixed - asset investment were negative factors [2] - After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and local state - owned "three - capital" management deepening, the A - share market was positive. Trading volume shrank, margin balance rebounded, and each index rose on the weekly line. The ChiNext and STAR Market rebounded strongly [2] - The basis of each variety fluctuated less this week, and the overall discount narrowed compared to last week. The term structure of near - month contracts moved down slightly, with little change compared to last week, and diversified hedging can be maintained [2] Forecast Conclusion - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will move in the directions of weakening, strengthening, weakening, and weakening respectively next week [4]

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/10/24 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | 王蒙 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jix ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 全球电动车需求月报 ——现实需求较强，预期存在压力 张再宇 高级分析师 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 2025年10月24日 核心数据与结论-中国市场 键。 资料来源：同花顺iFind，Marklines，国泰君安期货研究 2 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源 iFind ，Marklines 国泰君安期货研究 ： 同花顺 ➢ 总量：中国电车内需1-9月累计946万辆，累计同比+28%，累计+207万辆。9月中国电车内需138万辆，同/环比+17%/+18%，2024年 同期环比+19%。9月内需渗透率54%，累计渗透率49%；中国电车出口1-9月累计173万辆，累计同比+86%，累计+80万辆。9月中国电 车出口22万辆，同/环比+100%/-1%，2024年同期环比+1%。9月出口渗透率34%，累计渗透率35%。从周度来看，10月边际符合预期。 目前，汽车和电车库存分别为1.3和0.6个月，边际有所下移。 ➢ 结构性市 ...

2025 年 10 月 24 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡 原油期货将 震荡偏强 玻璃、纯碱期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 铝期货主力合约 AL2512 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 21390 和 21480 元/吨，支撑位 21200 和 21160 元/吨。 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2512 阻力位 4621 和 4632 点，支撑位 4549 和 4515 点；IH2512 阻力位 3034 和 3060 点，支撑位 300 ...

2025年10月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡反弹 | 3 | | 铜：情绪回暖，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：关注LME库存 | 7 | | 铅：库存持续减少，价格上涨 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：重心上移 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部震荡 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：具备向上弹性 | 12 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 14 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：升贴水疲弱，上方空间有限 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注仓单注册情况 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 18 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本底部抬升，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部抬升，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | ...

2025年10月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：市场情绪转好、美豆偏强，或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：偏强震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 8 | | 棉花：新棉成本上移支撑棉花期价 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 11 | | 生猪：短期屠宰、肥标及二育情绪共振 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 油脂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,132 ...