棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，宏观扰动为主 豆油：南美题材不足，区间震荡调整 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：本轮上涨主要是外围情绪带动及年前备货等题材炒作为主，基本面无明显改善，因此随着宏 观退潮、地缘缓和，棕榈油在前高位置阻力较大回落，最终棕榈油 05 合约周跌 2.74%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，即使中美采购风声正劲，美豆上方驱动依旧有限，跟随油脂板块调整为主， 豆油 05 合约周跌 2.50%。 二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 02 月 08 日 棕榈油：在经历了近两个月的筑底后，棕榈油终于在一季度迎来了短暂的多因素共振下的流畅上涨窗 口。本轮上涨始于宏观资金关注商品周期轮动、MPOB 利空落地后入场，B50 年内悲观情绪充分消化、远期 需求逻辑与产量缠绕无法即时交易，马来高频产量及出口数据暗示去库进程良好、盘面重回逢低做多的减 产季常态化交易选择；同时印尼加税预期较强、2 月抢出口行为明显，叠加斋月前备货热潮，给到了棕榈 油传统的上涨题材，此外寒潮、地缘问题等推涨能源价格，美国生柴政策趋近落地，油脂做多情绪回暖。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices have significantly declined and adjusted, and the basis has strengthened. However, the core logic of the tight real - supply and demand remains unchanged. The lithium price is expected to be supported at the bottom due to downstream replenishment willingness, and the market should pay attention to variables such as macro - factors. The futures main contract price is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 132,920 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 15,280 yuan/ton; the 2607 contract closed at 133,620 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 15,240 yuan/ton. The spot price dropped 26,000 yuan/ton week - on - week to 134,500 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2605 contract) weakened by 4,920 yuan/ton to - 6,700 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was - 1,350 yuan/ton, strengthening by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2605 - 2607 contracts was - 700 yuan/ton, strengthening by 40 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - Domestic lithium salt factories are gradually entering the seasonal maintenance phase, and the overseas mine - end costs have significantly increased. In January, Chile exported 8 ships of lithium salt, with a total lithium salt volume of 30,000 tons (actual export of 53,000 tons, including 25,000 tons of lithium sulfate bulk cargo). The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production was 20,744 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from last week. The Australian ore shipment volume was 84,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons month - on - month, and the Chilean lithium salt shipment volume was 8,760 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons month - on - month [2] 3.2.2 Demand - Short - term demand is strong, and the power terminal is waiting for recovery. The actual production reduction of cathode material factories is limited, and the output is expected to remain at a high level. In 2025, the newly installed capacity of new energy storage projects was 62.24GW/183GWh, a year - on - year increase of 47%/80%. Last week, the capacity price policy was introduced. In the energy storage segment, the weekly market had 29 project wins, with a total winning scale of 2.03GW/5.35GWh, a month - on - month increase of 52.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1865% [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate continued to destock, with the industry inventory at 105,463 tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons from last week, and the inventory was transferred downstream. This period, 3,576 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 33,787 lots [3] 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Unilateral - High - level volatility is expected, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [5] 3.3.2 Inter - period - Considering that the downstream pre - holiday replenishment rhythm is coming to an end, long - short spreads should take profit opportunistically [5] 3.3.3 Hedging - With large price fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to use options tools to hedge opportunistically [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut spot market is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, trading activities will gradually end, and prices are likely to transition smoothly. After the festival, there will be some restocking demand, but the market may face short - term pressure due to factors such as high inventory and potential imports [1][2] - The peanut futures market will be strong in the short - term following the trend of oils and fats. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure after the Spring Festival [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Peanut Market Review - **Spot Market**: As of February 5, the average price of national common peanuts was 8,027 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (0.11%) from January 29. Some producers and grain dealers were not active in selling, resulting in a low supply. Downstream markets and food companies were stocking up before the festival, while the operating rate of oil mills declined and oilseed demand decreased [1] - **Futures Market**: In the week of February 6, peanut futures rose. The highest price of the main peanut contract (PK2605) was 7,936 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,874 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 7,918 yuan/ton, compared with 7,906 yuan/ton the previous week [1] 3.2 Peanut Market Outlook - **Before the Spring Festival**: Peanut spot prices will remain stable, with trading gradually coming to a halt as most traders have completed stocking up [2] - **After the Spring Festival**: There will be restocking demand, but the market may face pressure due to factors such as high residual inventory in production areas, short selling time after the festival, and potential imports from Senegal. Attention should be paid to the purchasing strategies of oil mills and the arrival of imported peanuts [2] 3.3 Basis and Spread - The report presents the basis of Henan Baisha peanuts and Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts from 2021 - 2026, as well as the 11 - 1 spread (discontinued) and 3 - 5 spread [6][7] 3.4 Price Data - The price of Baisha peanuts in Zhumadian, Henan this week was basically the same as last week [11] 3.5 Supply - The arrival volume of 6 oilseed peanut markets was about 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 9.52% from last week but an increase of 104.74% compared with the same period last year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.7 million tons, an increase of 15.11% from last week and 561.32% compared with the same period last year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.41 million tons, an increase of 1.22% from last week and 211.34% compared with the same period last year [12] 3.6 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 3.85 million tons, a decrease of 28.54% from last week but an increase of 3,561.9% compared with the same period last year [19] - The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, basically stable. The downstream stocking demand improved slightly, but traders were cautious [19] - The mainstream price of peanut meal was 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton, with stable quotes. The demand was weak, and the market transaction was light [19] - The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills was 44.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.18 yuan/ton from last week. It increased by 234.97 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year [19] - The comprehensive operating rate of sample enterprises was 46.19%, a decrease of 0.39% from last week but an increase of 45.86% compared with the same period last year [19] - The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 82,000 tons, a decrease of 0.85% from last week [20] 3.7 Inventory - The report shows the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills from different production seasons and years [23]

2026 年 2 月 8 日 玉米：关注节后售粮 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 报告导读： （1） 玉米市场回顾 二 〇 二 六 年 度 现货市场，2 月 6 日当周，玉米现货下跌。据汇易网统计，截至 2 月 6 日，全国玉米均价 2368.43 元 /吨，较前一周 2376.27 元/吨下跌 8 元/吨。华北玉米价格涨跌互现，深加工企业主流收购价格 2240- 2360 元/吨（含 18%水分以内潮粮），饲料企业本地粮收购价格 2330-2380 元/吨，东北猪料玉米到货 2420-2450 元/吨。东北深加工玉米价格略有下跌，黑、吉潮粮主流收购价格 2150-2260 元/吨，饲料玉 米主流价格 2190-2270 元/吨之间。北方玉米散船集港价格 2280-2290 元/吨，广东蛇口散船报价 2390- 2410 元/吨。 期货市场，2 月 6 日当周盘面反弹。购销活跃度有所减弱，因到港量下降，北港收购价格小幅上调， 盘面小幅上行。主力合约（C2605）最高价 2282 元/吨，最低 2260 元/吨，收盘价 2279 元/吨（前一周 收盘 2278 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年02月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：供需双弱，缺乏驱动 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16300-17000元/吨 五地铅总库存增加，但绝对库存处于历史同期低位 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 第 2 页 国内铅现货升水扩大 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-02 02-17 02-28 03-12 03-24 04-06 04-17 04-29 05-14 05-26 06-06 06-18 06-30 07-11 07-23 08-04 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-19 10-07 10-19 10-30 11-1 ...

2 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： 铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年02月08日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：基本面现实偏弱，长期良好，交易谨慎 强弱分析：震荡，价格区间：98000-110000元/吨 铜全球总库存持续增加 COMEX铜价低于LME铜价 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 01-01 01-13 01-23 02-09 02-20 03-04 03-15 03-26 04-07 04-17 04-29 05-13 05-23 06-05 06-17 06-27 07-09 07-21 07-31 08-12 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-25 10-14 10-24 11-05 11-17 11-27 12-09 12-19 12-31 万吨 铜全球总 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner, while silver requires attention to spot market changes. The strength analysis indicates a neutral stance for both gold and silver. The price ranges are 1050 - 1150 yuan/gram for gold and 18000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - The long - term logic for gold remains solid, but there is a lack of short - term drivers around the Chinese New Year, resulting in a wedge - shaped oscillatory convergence pattern in prices. The adjustment of gold is considered relatively sufficient, and the possibility of further decline is low [4]. - For silver, the feedback from the fundamentals after the price drop this week is the core for subsequent price judgment. The contradiction of the tight spot structure is expected to continue until the second quarter. There is still potential for an increase in silver prices, but it depends on factors such as continued retail speculation, pre - April export rush, and no further inventory reduction in the US. There is a trend - based decline opportunity for silver if a second peak appears in the second quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 rebounded to - 21.99 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 30.1 US dollars/ounce [11]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 rebounded to 0.225 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.76 US dollars/ounce [17]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - Gold: This week, the domestic gold spot - futures price spread was 1.37 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [20]. - Silver: This week, the domestic silver spot - futures price spread was - 602 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Spread - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month spread was 6.92 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month spread was 476 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - Gold: The total cost of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 26.74 yuan/gram; for buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract, it was 7.38 yuan/gram [31][32]. - Silver: The total cost of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 343.18 yuan/kilogram; for buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract, it was 418.60 yuan/kilogram [33][34]. 3.1.5 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot at Shanghai Gold Exchange This week, for gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating stronger delivery power; for silver, it was mainly paid from short to long, indicating stronger receiving power [35]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 11 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants rebounded to 51.9%. The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 1.02 tons [37][42]. - Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 353 tons to 12270 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants declined to 26%. The domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 105 tons to 350 tons [39][42]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver also decreased slightly [44]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - Gold: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 10.87 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 2.4 tons [47]. - Silver: This week, the position of the silver SLV ETF increased by 667 tons [51]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio This week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded from 47 in the previous week to 66.27 [53]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.05%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.74% [55]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60].

2 ◆ 本周初贵金属有色大板块的系统性跌势，主要源自市场对海外AI泡沫的"焦虑"再起（类似此前2025年11月中下旬一波回调行情）， 叠加美联储换届人选意外调整——沃什的货币政策风格被称之为鹰派底色的实用主义，后续可能出现"缩表对冲降息"的货币政策导 向，以白银领衔的贵金属创出历史性跌幅，传统有色铜铝等亦跟随大跌，周一多金属主力合约触及跌停。不过因后续COMEX白银走 势企稳回升，传统有色品种如期未触及连板。 ◆ 近期现货淡季中，微观供需持续羸弱，但有色的主导线条仍依托于资金风偏及海外宏观叙事。诚然因美国科技股财报披露，短时风偏 承压，预计春节前资金面再蓄势推涨传统大有色板块的动能遭遇挑战，但毕竟在AI产业投资及发展趋势，以及包括金银铜等在内的资 源品地缘溢价层面，尚未看到定价逻辑的全面转向，因此尽管短时重新回到前高的可能性不大，行情需要一段修复平整期，但当下不 应持对铝价全面转空的思路。 ◆ 节前我们倾向偏轻仓对待，节后不排除仍有二次"春季躁动"的潜在驱动，尤其是铝价在较有安全性的低点位置依然仍有买点机会。 只不过，后续需要关注的一个核心问题在于：如若3月元宵节后，铝锭去库不及预期，伴随微观矛盾持续累积，且 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026 年 2 月 8 日 棉花：预计维持震荡，谨慎持仓过节 20260208 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 2 月 6 日当周，ICE 棉花期货持续下行，主要受到仓单大幅增加影响，情况和 2024 年 4 月初类 似；另外，美元走强和商品市场风险偏好下降也对 ICE 棉花构成不利影响。本周美棉周度出口数据还可 以，最近四周的出口有三周不错，不过暂时来看还不足以令 USDA 调整年度出口预估，因此下周 USDA 的 月度供需报告预计不会有太大的变化。 国内棉花期货本周窄幅震荡，一方面国内商品市场整体情绪转弱，郑棉期货上周冲高回落并伴随大幅 减仓之后交投转淡，预计随着春节长假临近，这种低波动的状态将在下周持续；另一方面，产业层面对春 节后的棉花需求和价格仍然持相对乐观的预期，所以当郑棉期货回调时，现货锁基差和点价成交仍然较 好，逢低买盘和高基差对期货构成支撑。预计春节前郑棉期货将维持震荡走势，考虑到春节假期较长，而 国际政治经贸局势仍然存在很大不确定性，所以建议投资者谨慎持仓过节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, port arrivals are decreasing, and some traders are closing their warehouses, causing the spot price to be stable with a slight upward trend [3] - In the medium - term, supply will increase in February, demand will enter the Spring Festival off - season, and inventory is about to enter the accumulation stage. Log supply is expected to maintain a normal level according to the shipping schedule, while the weak new construction in the real estate sector on the demand side continues to drag down log demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - Short - term: Port arrivals decline, some traders close warehouses, and spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend [3] - Medium - term: Supply increases in February, demand enters the Spring Festival off - season, inventory accumulates. Log supply follows the shipping schedule, and real - estate new construction weakness drags down demand [3] 3.2 Spot Price Trends - For different tree species, specifications, and regions, most prices remained stable from 2026/1/16 to 2026/2/6. Only the 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 1.4% and the 5.9 - meter 20+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 1.4% compared to the previous week [7] 3.3 Supply: New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data - Multiple log shipments from various origins are expected to arrive at Chinese and South Korean ports between February 7 and February 21, 2026, with different carrying capacities [19] 3.4 Demand and Inventory: Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Average Shipment - Port inventory: In some ports like Lanshan Port, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu Port, inventory increased compared to the previous week, while in Taicang Port, it decreased. For example, the total inventory in Lanshan Port increased by 2.7%, and in Xinminzhou, the total inventory increased by 20.6% [23] - Daily average shipment: The total shipment in some ports like Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased compared to the previous week, while in Jiangdu Port, it decreased. For example, the total shipment in Lanshan Port increased by 8.0%, and in Jiangdu Port, it decreased by 60.0% [23] 3.5 Other Direct Price - Affecting Factors - Freight: The dry bulk BDI decreased by 10.5% compared to the previous week, the handy - sized BHSI increased by 3.2%, the crude oil BDTI decreased by 0.6%, and the SCFI composite index decreased by 3.8% [27] - Exchange rate: The USD/CNY decreased by 0.5%, and the USD/NZD decreased by 1.5% [27]