➢ 焦煤现货交投氛围较为浓厚，流拍率显著较低，现货资源略显紧俏。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地或受安监等因素影响，整体产量回升节奏相对偏缓；另一方面焦炭供给未发生显著边际增长。 ◆ 2、需求： 煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 国内四中全会顺利召开，对外公报发布后，市场仍预期或有具体相关政策的落地；另一方面，中美贸易博弈局势的走向或将在下 周迎来一定关键性时间，市场风偏当前相对乐观。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 焦煤端偏紧的基本面现实进一步在数据上有所印证，现货价格表现偏强，叠加相对偏暖的宏观情绪，预计煤焦板块短期或延续 偏强震荡态势。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | --- | --- | --- | | FW原煤848（-6.88） | 独立焦化厂 ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：板块情绪带动叠加成本重心抬升，价格震荡上行 | 基本面 | 条目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | | 供应 | 周产量（周） | 11.40 | 1.06% | -1.72% | 20.74 | -0.67% | 14.34% | | | 进口数量（8月） | 1.03 | 39.52% | 13.21% | 0.17 | -27.67% | -68.47% | | 需求 | 出口数量（8月） | 4.01 | 14.57% | 6.02% | 0.44 | -3.63% | -11.5 ...

| 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（10.20-10.26） 现货市场，生猪价格偏强震荡。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 19.4 元/公斤（上周 20.4 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.98 元/公斤（上周 11.38 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1546 元/头（上周 1566 元/ 头）。供应端，集团出栏进度偏快，散户存在扛价意愿，供应略有收紧；需求端，低价刺激需求，且主被 动分割入库启动，宰量明显提升。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.75KG（上周 124.67KG），出栏均重环比上升 0.06%。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 期货市场，生猪期货价格偏强运行。本周生猪期货 LH2511 合约最高价为 11615 元/吨，最低价为 11200 元/吨，收盘价为 11490 元/吨（上周同期 11050 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2511 合约基差为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly but face pressure at the upper level. The driving factors for the upward breakthrough of lithium carbonate prices mainly come from three aspects: strong energy storage demand that can last until the first quarter of next year, continuous warehouse receipt cancellation, high apparent consumption and high destocking, and the fact that the resumption of mines is less than expected and one - time fees need to be paid, which falsifies the previous upper - level suppression. The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 85,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended for inter - period trading, and it is suggested to increase the proportion of selling hedging and build positions in a pyramid shape [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Price Trend - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts was strong, breaking through 80,000 yuan/ton. The 2511 contract closed at 78,920 yuan/ton, up 3,220 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2601 contract closed at 79,520 yuan/ton, up 3,740 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 2,050 yuan/ton week - on - week to 75,400 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2511 contract) fell 1,170 yuan/ton to - 3,520 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was - 340 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2511 - 2601 contracts was - 600 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton weaker than the previous week [1]. 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Inventory - Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons compared with last week to 130,366 tons. The destocking speed increased in October, and the apparent consumption was in a growing state. The speed of futures warehouse receipt inventory slowed down significantly, and the expected recipient changed from downstream to traders [2]. Supply - The weekly output and operating rate of lithium carbonate reached new highs again. The weekly output reached 21,308 tons, and the operating rate was 55.2%. The biggest variable this week was that the market expectation of the resumption of production at Jianxiaowo was lower than expected [2]. Demand - The energy storage market expectation was strong. Downstream cathode and battery manufacturers had high enthusiasm for spot procurement, and the willingness for physical delivery on the futures market was low. The price of 6F continued to rise to 93,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of cathode materials and batteries continued to rise [2]. 3. Outlook Unilateral - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but there is pressure at the upper level. The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 85,000 yuan/ton [3]. Inter - period - Not recommended. The upward movement of the unilateral price weakens the basis, but the inventory is expected to continue to be destocked [4]. Hedging - It is recommended to increase the proportion of selling hedging and build positions in a pyramid shape [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns is in a game, and it is difficult to break the short - term narrow - range situation. The fundamental supply of refined nickel is increasing while demand is weakening, which restricts the upward flexibility. The key support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. There is support at the bottom, and long - term volatility may increase [1]. - For stainless steel, the downward space is limited, and there is no effective upward driving force. It is recommended to focus on a conservative range - trading strategy, wait for low - level buying opportunities, and avoid chasing high prices. Demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, and supply elasticity may limit the upward space [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Fundamentals Shanghai Nickel - The domestic and overseas visible inventory of refined nickel has returned to the accumulation stage. The market generally expects the slowdown of invisible restocking. The substitution ratio of nickel - iron for nickel plates in the nickel - alloy sector has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production of pure nickel and low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term, which restricts the upward flexibility of Shanghai Nickel [1]. - The core support for the bulls is the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. Although the actual impact is controllable, short - term inspection results may increase market concerns and strengthen the bottom - support logic of nickel ore [1]. Stainless Steel - Demand is jointly suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, resulting in a weak consumption peak season. However, the over - drafting effect of early export rush has been basically digested, showing marginal low - level repair [2]. - The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel. The production schedule in October increased by 3% month - on - month to 3.45 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5% [2]. - The overall inventory of factories and social warehouses has declined from the high level. Although the year - on - year inventory accumulation in the middle and upstream has basically converged, the absolute inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is still cautious, lacking an effective upward driving force [2]. 2. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 191 tons to 47,696 tons. Among them, the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 232 tons to 26,810 tons, the spot inventory increased by 243 tons to 16,816 tons (nickel plates increased by 243 tons, and nickel beans remained unchanged), and the bonded - area inventory increased by 180 tons to 4,070 tons. LME inventory increased by 324 tons to 250,854 tons [5]. - New Energy: On October 24th, the inventory days of the upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by - 1, - 1, and +1 month - on - month to 4, 8, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory on October 24th changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days, and the ternary material inventory on October 23rd remained flat month - on - month at 7.1 days [5]. - Nickel Ore - Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel: On October 15th, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a month - on - year/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 23rd, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 1,027,402 tons, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 0.89% week - on - week to 649,326 tons [5]. 3. Market News - On September 12th, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over a 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect the nickel - ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22nd, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. Once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees until 2025, the sanctions will be automatically cancelled [7]. - On September 30th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15th this year. According to the transition clause, if the 2026 RKAB has been applied for through the online system but not approved by the end of this year, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the entry into force of this ministerial order can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31st, 2026 [7]. - On October 10th, US President Trump claimed on social media that the US might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [8].

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：淡季讲预期，钢价关注反弹机会 ◼ 逻辑：淡季讲预期，钢价关注反弹机会 ◼ 宏观面：海外宏观：美国9月通胀超预期下滑，顺周期商品估值抬升；国内宏观：制造业投资和基建投资端受"反内卷" 影响，出现下滑，为了保证经济走出通缩螺旋，中长期需要需求端发力。四中全会后国内主线再度转向"反内卷"交易； ◼ 黑色产业链：旺季需求表现为旺季不旺。平衡表视角，若要保证库存不增加，只能通过减少供给实现，而其充分必要条 件就是价格下跌，利润压缩。电炉用的废钢是高成本铁元素，属于供给边际，谷电亏损，产业链端关注电炉减产节奏。 | 2025/10/24 | | 供应（万吨） | | | 需求（万吨） | | | 库存 | | 现货 | 主力 | 01-05 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is under pressure due to the suppression of industrial chain profits and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although the downward space for downstream steel mill profits is limited and the iron water output has shown a downward inflection point, the strengthening of the coking coal and coke sectors has further eroded the industrial chain profits. However, potential macro - level positive factors may still materialize, so the iron ore price should be treated as fluctuating [3][5]. Summary by Directory Supply - Overseas shipments are relatively high year - on - year. Australian high - frequency shipment data shows both year - on - year and month - on - month increases. The global shipment volume in the recent week was 3333.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.0 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 446.2 million tons. Australian shipments were 1915.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 184.0 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 824.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 95.2 million tons. The shipments of Rio Tinto and Fortescue to China have increased significantly recently [4][5][15]. - Among non - mainstream mines, South African shipments have shown a seasonal decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has rebounded, bringing the overall operation back to a relatively normal level [20][27]. Demand - The iron water output has shown a downward trend at the inflection point, and the port cargo clearance volume has also declined recently. The iron water output of 247 enterprises was 239.90 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 5.54 million tons. Recently, the price fluctuations of scrap steel and iron ore have been narrow, and the scrap - iron price difference has basically remained flat [4][29][33]. Inventory - The accumulation speed of port inventory has accelerated. The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 14423.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 145.3 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 845.5 million tons [4][37][39]. Contract and Price Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 771.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 566,000 lots, an increase of 20,200 lots. The average daily trading volume was 281,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 88,200 lots. The spot price basically remained flat week - on - week [7][11]. Downstream Profit - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded, and the paper profit has been revised downwards [41]. Spot Category Spread - The inventory of fine ore has decreased recently, and the spread between PB lump and PB fine has slowly narrowed [43]. Futures Month Spread - The recent month spread has been relatively stable [48]. Basis Performance - The recent changes in futures and spot prices have been relatively consistent, and the basis has basically remained flat week - on - week [52].

纯苯、苯乙烯周报 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：短期震荡，关注贸易战缓和带来的需求增量 | | • | 纯苯国产：9月检修损失量6万吨，10~11月之后检修逐步降低。回到3~5万吨左右。9月新装置投产压力偏大，5.6万吨兑现。10、11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 月份分别有2.5、4.1万吨新产能落地。主要是裕龙石化，吉林石化，湖南石化，广西石化等。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：目前9月进口维持40-43万吨预期，四季度进口预期抬升，10月维持50万吨进口预期，11-12月维持高进口预期。外盘仍然 | | | • | 供应压力偏大。 苯乙烯：9月检修集中兑现，7.9万吨主要是广东石化和浙石化的影响相对较大。10~11月仍然有月均6万吨的检修，主要是镇海炼化和 | | | | 卫星石化影响。与此同时，苯乙烯的投产仍然在持续落地。预计11月吉林石化和广西石化均能落 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月26日 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏弱 价格区间：870-950元/克、10500-11590元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落2.85%，伦敦银回落11.27%。金银比从前周的78.6回升至85.6，10年期TIPS回落至1.73%，10年期名义利率回落至4.02%（2 年期3.48%），美元指数录得98. 94。 ◆ 本周金银比回升至85，此前观点金银比看从80以下位置回升观点兑现。本次金银比回升主要由白银暴跌贡献，当现货挤兑问题随着中美物流搬 运而有所缓解，白银价格的下跌堪称必然。从空间来看，下方第一目标位47.5，第二目标位43-44美元，当下难言白银下跌风险已完全出清。 ◆ 黄金来看，周五公布美国CPI数据小幅低于预期，令其分时表现反弹。但由于美国政府关门已持续至第四周，参议院民主党人多次阻挠临时支出 法案，称如果不延长医疗保险补贴，他们就无法支持此类措施，10月美国硬数据或全部 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil is that the interruption of Russian oil exports has disrupted short - term supply, and one should wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The "blockade sanctions" imposed by the US on two major Russian oil giants on October 22 are the main disruptive factors, which have pushed up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. However, the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited, and the supply side shows short - term tightness but strong medium - to - long - term adaptability [6]. - The demand side shows a situation of regional differentiation and overall weakness. The sanctions have forced changes in the import patterns of major consumer countries. Global oil demand growth is weak, and actual oil consumption capacity is lower than expected, offsetting the risk of supply disruptions caused by geopolitics. The expected warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere may further suppress heating oil demand, so the demand side cannot provide strong upward momentum for oil prices [7]. - Short - term: Wait and see, beware of further corrections. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel. Although the decline of oil prices has accelerated under the influence of this round of trade frictions, the medium - to - long - term decline is difficult to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, and oil price fluctuations may increase [8]. Summary by Directory Overview - The interruption of Russian oil exports due to US sanctions has disrupted short - term supply. The sanctions have affected about 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports, mainly pushing up the demand and prices of Middle - Eastern medium - sour crude oil. Other supply sources are filling the gap, but the long - term impact of sanctions may be limited. The demand side is weak, with regional differentiation and overall lack of upward momentum for oil prices [6][7]. Macro - Sino - US trade frictions have escalated again, and the gold - oil ratio has increased. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined [26][32][37]. Supply - OPEC is continuously increasing production. The eight participating countries in OPEC + are adjusting their production, and the reduction in production is being gradually lifted. The 9 - month production increase completion rate of OPEC 8 is 80%, and institutional statistics show nearly 1 million barrels per day. OPEC's maritime exports remain at a low level with no obvious increase [10][45][46]. - The supply situations of various countries/regions vary. For example, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have certain idle production capacities; the demand for some grades of oil in Guyana is strong; Russia's refinery capacity has been damaged, but its crude oil export potential has increased; the production of US shale oil is facing challenges [11][12]. Demand - Asian strategic reserve procurement has slowed down. Chinese refiners are consuming inventory, and the demand for spot imports has weakened. Indian refineries' procurement decisions have been affected by US sanctions, but their interest in Russian oil has reignited recently. North American, European, and Asian refineries are entering the seasonal maintenance period, and direct crude oil demand has temporarily weakened [13][14]. Inventory - US commercial inventories have increased, while the inventory in the Cushing area is still significantly lower than the historical average. Refining margins are oscillating strongly, European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are being depleted. Domestic refined oil margins are rebounding [89][91][93]. Price and Spread - In the global crude oil spot market, the sanctions on Russia have led to an increase in Middle - Eastern quotations. Middle - Eastern crude oil discounts have surged, the US export situation is favorable, the North Sea market is stable, the outlook for low - sulfur crude oil in the Mediterranean is bearish, and the West African market is affected by weak Chinese demand [97][99].