Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 8, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the shock center of synthetic rubber moves down, while there is support in the medium - term [2][4] - The short - term of butadiene has limited drivers and will fall from a high level, with support in the medium - term [8][9] Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 3.25%, and the capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, a month - on - month increase of 2.48 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua will resume normal production, and the capacity utilization rate will increase [4] - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78% [7] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Next cycle, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline. The overall decline of the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises will be greater than that of semi - steel tire enterprises [7] - In terms of alternative demand, the spread between the main contracts of NR - BR has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the alternative demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [7] Valuation - The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,300 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculative nature has weakened, and the upward valuation pressure has gradually increased. The effective support level is the cost line of butadiene rubber, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side [4] Strategy - Unilateral: After over - buying, short on rallies according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually enters a low - level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of widening the spread later [6] Butadiene Supply - This cycle (January 30 - February 5, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 116,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 119,500 tons, continuing to increase compared with this cycle [10] Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a year - on - year high. In the short - term, with the decrease of butadiene rubber plant overhauls, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain high [10] - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant amount, with relatively limited increments [10] - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remains unchanged [10] Inventory - This cycle (January 29 - February 4, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 4.20% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 2.86% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 5.19% month - on - month [10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a sideways movement, with limited upside and downside potential. Macro - level factors, such as the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the US, are being closely monitored, and no clear conclusion can be drawn. Fundamentally, the methanol port inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there are expectations of the resumption of methanol plants in Iran, resulting in a somewhat bearish fundamental outlook [2][4]. - In terms of valuation, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of a negative feedback from coastal MTO plants will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan, which is gradually stabilizing around 1950 - 2000 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower end of the methanol valuation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - From January 30 to February 5, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,061,085 tons, an increase of 23,350 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 92.26%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15%. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.073 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 92.79%, higher than the current period. The planned resumption of production capacity next week exceeds the capacity involved in maintenance and production cuts, which may lead to an increase in capacity utilization and production [4]. Demand - **Olefins**: The load of previously restarted olefin plants is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue rising. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin and Chongqing Wanshengxin plants are expected to shut down next week, with a projected supply reduction and a possible decline in overall capacity utilization. For glacial acetic acid, the faulty plants are gradually recovering this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly next week. For formaldehyde, plants such as Binzhou Hengyun, Gushi Huanyu, Li'eryan, and Guangxi Luqiao are expected to undergo maintenance, and plants like Jinyimeng may further reduce their loads, so the supply is expected to continue to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clearly defined shutdown plants in the next period, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly compared to this week. Attention should be paid to the situation of plants with load reduction and the impact of high liquid chlorine prices on methane chloride production plants [4]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on February 4, 2026, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 368,300 tons, a decrease of 55,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.16%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 287,100 tons, an increase of 21,400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.05%. - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.15%. The methanol port inventory decreased this week, with 127,300 tons of visible foreign vessel discharges recorded during the period. The terminal rigid demand in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas remained stable, the提货 volume of the mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to the reduction in discharges. The inventory at the South China ports increased. In the Guangdong area, there were a small number of imported and domestic vessels arriving this week, the提货 volume of the mainstream warehouses was average, and the inventory did not change much. In the Fujian area, imported cargo continued to be replenished. The提货 volume was stable due to rigid demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it was still unable to offset the increase in supply, resulting in an inventory increase [4]. 3.2 Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: In the short term, methanol is expected to move sideways, with resistance at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity spread trading**: The spread between MA and PP is in a sideways pattern [4].

美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 美豆多空因素与观点 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 02 本周美豆价格上涨较为明显 本周美豆连续合约结算价1115.25美 分/蒲式耳，上涨51美分/蒲式耳： 1、中美元首电话后，特朗普声称中 国加量购买本作物年度大豆800万吨， 美豆价格受到利好支撑； 2、阿根廷产区虽然迎来降雨，但雨 量依然不够，叠加高温，阿根廷产区 作物威胁依然未能完全解除； 下周关注要点： 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 01-02 01-10 01-18 01-26 02-03 02-11 02-19 02-27 03-07 03-15 0 ...

烧碱：低位震荡，未来成本抬升预期强 PVC：偏弱震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年2月8日 | 供应 | 中国10万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.8%，较上周环比+0.1% | | --- | --- | | | 氧化铝方面，本周国内检修式压产频繁，运行产能弹性波动，整体供应形势尚未发生根本性改变，对价格支撑仍旧不足，不排除仍有其他 | | 需求 | 氧化铝企业在2月份出现阶段性生产波动的可能，预计主要影响范围仍集中在山西与河南区域，以及山东个别高成本企业。非铝需求当前 | | | 维持刚需，面临淡季开工下滑。从烧碱出口方面看，出口订单较少，下游囤货意愿较弱。 | | | 市场做空烧碱利润的核心逻辑是液氯偏强，烧碱成本下滑，未到现金流成本厂家不减产，因而高产量、高库存格局持续。然而该逻辑在后 期将受到挑战，主要因液氯的短期强势格局在4月份之后（出口退税导致的抢出口结束）或难以持续。 | | | 从基本面看，烧碱高库存导致现货弱势在春节前难逆转。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过 | | 观点 | 后期也有大规 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 02 月 08 日 豆粕：震荡，规避春节长假风险 豆一：震荡，规避春节长假风险 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（02.02～02.06），美豆期价涨势为主，因为中美元首电话提振市场情绪，美国总统特朗普称 "中方将会增购美国大豆"，该言论提振美豆出口前景、激励美豆价格上涨。本周没有美豆出口大额订单 报告。从周 K 线角度，2 月 6 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 4.75%，美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 3.34%。 上周（02.02～02.06），国内豆粕期价偏弱震荡，豆一期价横盘震荡。豆粕方面，盘面价格比美豆偏 弱，可能因为：巴西丰产担忧、中方扩大采购美豆担忧供应增加、菜系偏弱影响（中加贸易关系）、巴西 升贴水报价下跌抵消部分美豆盘面上涨的影响、市场再度传言抛储等因素。豆一方面，中央一号文件出 台，盘面情绪稳定：一号文件延续前期政策方向，而国内豆一期货价格在前期已经上涨，所以当一号文件 出台时，国内盘面情绪稳定。从周 K 线角度，2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - This week's view: In February and March, there are few maintenance plans. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand slows down, and the situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations continues [6]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 16%. New capacity will be put into production at a low rate in the first half of the year and a high rate in the second half. Only BASF Zhanjiang has new capacity for the 05 contract, but the existing capacity has increased significantly compared to the same period. The overall PE operating rate is 85.9%, up 0.5%. Some plants had short - term shutdowns this week, and supply increased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance plans in February and March are expected to decline month - on - month. The production of standard products has increased, and the ethylene derivative profit for PE is acceptable, so the operating rate is expected to remain high [6]. - Demand: In the second week before the Spring Festival, the overall downstream operating rate declined rapidly. The film factory maintained a relatively high load, while the demand for greenhouse films basically stopped. The packaging film's phased inventory replenishment has ended, and new orders are limited. The demand from the food and daily - use product sectors has passed its peak, and the operating rate of the injection - molding industry is expected to continue to decline. After downstream enterprises stocked up some finished products, due to the raw material prices not meeting expectations, large - scale inventory replenishment is limited, and the raw material inventory remains at a medium - low level. Attention should be paid to post - festival restocking [6]. - View: Polyolefins have adjusted to a neutral valuation. Expectations regarding the Middle East geopolitical situation and the Two Sessions have not yet materialized. The upstream inventory has been well - reduced before the Spring Festival, and the inventory situation of the industry has improved compared to December. Therefore, a significant decline is not expected. The ethylene performance is weak, and the PE profit is acceptable compared to other derivatives. With limited maintenance plans in February and March, the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level, so the PE cost - end valuation is moderately high after the repair. The greenhouse film and packaging film industries are entering a seasonal off - season, and although there is an expectation of improvement for mulch films, the pre - festival demand support may be limited. The supply - side pressure will gradually increase at the end of the year. Therefore, from the perspective of the upstream, inventory control is still active, and there is no obvious price - topping behavior. After the mid - and downstream replenished their inventories, the explicit inventory structure is relatively healthy, with a slightly higher mid - stream inventory. Attention should be paid to whether the inventory can continue to be transferred downstream. Before the Spring Festival, the supply may increase while the demand decreases, but the weak - reality pricing is limited, and the market may fluctuate strongly [6]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait and see with a fluctuating trend. 2) Inter - period: The willingness to hold inventory is lower than before. Due to the seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, the flexibility of the spot price is limited. With the continuation of strong expectations, conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage when the price is high. 3) Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [6]. Polypropylene Part - This week's view: PDH plants have concentrated maintenance in the first quarter, and the C3 cost side provides strong support [101]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 12.7%, and the annual output increased by 16.7%. The overall capacity is in excess, and the profit has been compressed to a historical low. In the first quarter, due to the continuous low profit of PDH plants, the planned maintenance has increased, and the supply center has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. The weekly operating rate is 73.9%, down 0.8%. Some plants have implemented maintenance, and the operating rate may be difficult to return to a high level, providing marginal support. Recently, PDH plants have made many inquiries about propane for March, and attention should be paid to the resumption time. The domestic demand is weak, and the short - term PP import volume is limited. Fluctuations in freight rates and general overseas demand restrict PP exports. This week, the domestic FOB price increase is greater than that overseas, and the number of signed orders has decreased. The import and export volume is expected to maintain a basic level in the short term [101]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is differentiated. The terminal提货 rhythm slowed down in the second half of the week, and the finished - product inventory is higher than last year. The demand for plastic weaving has slowed down as the construction and logistics industries gradually enter the holiday. The procurement enthusiasm for BOPP films is good, and they continue to enter the market to purchase annual orders. The order cycle of film factories continues to extend. Although the operating rate has slightly declined this week due to environmental protection and production - line technological transformation. The demand for non - woven fabrics for Spring Festival packaging is increasing, and the operating rate remains stable. Downstream factories such as CPP and daily - use injection - molding are actively reducing their finished - product inventory and shutting down for maintenance. The new round of national subsidy policies and the Spring Festival cleaning have increased the demand for floor cleaners, etc. The demand for home appliances and automobiles is showing an upward trend, especially in the home appliance sector, where sales have increased significantly, which supports the operating rate of the modified PP industry. The injection - molding terminal's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and as workers return home, the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [102]. - View: The raw - material side, including crude oil and propane, shows a strong performance, and the propylene spot is also strong. The profits of oil - based, propane - based, and propylene - based processes are compressed, and the coal - based profit is at a low level. The overall weighted profit is compressed. Some PDH supply elasticity has been realized marginally, and the cost is significantly different from that of PE. The plastic - weaving industry is showing marginal weakness, while downstream industries such as BOPP and modified PP have acceptable demand due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rate is temporarily supported. However, other products are gradually entering the off - season, and the off - season demand cannot resonate, and some speculative demand is suppressed. In terms of supply, the maintenance scale in the first quarter is currently high, and the supply center has declined month - on - month. The overall PP inventory has been reduced. The upstream had good pre - sales, and some low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. However, facing the Spring Festival holiday, the confidence of the mid - and downstream in the future market is average, and the sustainability of procurement is questionable. The first quarter may gradually enter a situation of both supply and demand reduction, and the price may fluctuate [103]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Fluctuate. 2) Inter - period: The PDH maintenance rate is still high, and with both supply and demand decreasing, the inter - period spread may fluctuate. 3) Inter - variety: Short the L - PP spread when it is high [103]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted, and the spot prices in various regions have declined. The basis has remained stable, and the number of warehouse receipts is at a high level. The 5 - 9 month spread has fluctuated around - 50 this week due to the seasonal weakness of the downstream and the slower inventory replenishment than before, while the strong expectations continue [14]. - PE Outer - Market Price: The CIF price in China has increased by $10 - 20. The cold wave in the United States and the Middle East geopolitical situation have boosted the willingness of overseas holders, and the price is strong. The price comparison between Europe, Southeast Asia, and China has been repaired. The HD film performance is weak, while the LD and injection - molding products are strong [16]. - Import Window: The import window has been compressed. Overseas suppliers are raising prices, and the non - standard products are at a neutral level year - on - year. The LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year. The price comparison between the United States and the Middle East has declined. Although the Iranian supply offers are acceptable this week, the domestic market is cautious, and there is an expectation of a slight decline in imports [23]. - Non - Standard Spread: The HD standard - product price comparison has weakened, while the LD price comparison has remained stable. Some plants have switched back to producing standard products, and the production of standard products has increased [26]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil is strong, naphtha has followed the increase, and the ethylene monomer has weakened. The coal price has rebounded and then remained stable [29]. - Production Profit: The oil - based profit has limited repair, the coal - based profit has slightly improved, the ethane - based profit has been compressed due to the cold wave in the United States, and the profit from purchasing ethylene externally has significantly repaired recently [35]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, there was concentrated production of standard products, with the nominal capacity increasing by 19.2% and the effective capacity increasing by 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries. BASF Zhanjiang started trial production at the end of December, and attention should be paid to its production ramp - up progress [40]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate is at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume is relatively high compared to the same period, but it will decline later [42]. - Standard - Product Supply: The LLDPE capacity has been concentratedly put into production, and the production ratio has increased from a low level. The maintenance scale in February has declined month - on - month, and the supply has increased [47]. - Maintenance Plan: The maintenance plans for the first quarter have not been fully announced. The maintenance plans in February and March are lower than the same period last year [50]. - Import: The import volume was high in December. In 2025, the Sino - US trade friction intensified, and the reduction mainly came from the United States. The pressure on the United States to clear inventory has eased, and the cold wave has led to a strong local ethylene market. The Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the import volume may decline month - on - month [56]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The overall downstream demand is accelerating its decline. The agricultural film operating rate is accelerating its decline, and the profit of mulch films is compressed year - on - year. The packaging film operating rate is higher than the same period last year, but the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is limited. The profit of the industry is at a high level, but the number of orders is slightly lower than the same period. The demand for food and tobacco and alcohol during the Spring Festival has been fulfilled, and there may be limited improvement in the future. The construction of northern terminals has declined seasonally, and the pipe - making industry mainly replenishes inventory after the Spring Festival. The raw - material inventory is slightly lower than the same period [71][78][85]. - Inventory: The total supply has continued to increase. The production of standard products has increased with the production ratio. Previously, the mid - stream established positions in the futures and spot markets, and agents placed orders, transferring the inventory to the mid - stream. The standard - product factory inventory has accumulated, the LD and HD factory inventories have been reduced, and the mid - stream inventory reduction has been difficult [64][69]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted. As the inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival is approaching the end, the basis has limited strengthening. The upstream had many pre - sales before, and the selling pressure before the festival is temporarily not large. The mid - stream has established a large amount of inventory, and the number of warehouse receipts remains at a high level. The month spread fluctuates [110]. - PP Outer - Market: The CIF price in China has rebounded. The quotes in north - western Europe have rebounded, and the price comparison in Southeast Asia has strengthened. The import window has been compressed month - on - month, the exchange rate has strengthened, and the profit from exporting to Southeast Asia has limited increase [117]. - Non - Standard Spread: The regional spread of拉丝 has slightly narrowed. In terms of varieties, the spread between拉丝 and low - melt copolymer is the same as the same period last year. This week, the upstream production enterprises'拉丝 production ratio has remained at a relatively low level, and the spread between high - and low - melt products has significantly narrowed [125]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil, naphtha, and propylene are strong. The coal price remains stable [131]. - Production Profit: The overall profit is compressed. The PDH - based valuation remains at a low level, and the coal - based and propylene - based process profits are in the red [138]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, there was a large - scale production of new capacity, with the effective capacity increasing by 12.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries [146]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate has recently declined, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period [147]. - Supply Details: The production of oil - based and PDH - based products is at a high level. The maintenance in the first quarter has increased significantly compared to December, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. Attention should be paid to the implementation [152]. - Maintenance Plan: The subsequent maintenance scale will decline slightly. The monthly maintenance volume in the first quarter is higher than the same period last year [157]. - Import and Export: The domestic production increase is large, the import volume is at a low level year - on - year, and the export volume has increased significantly. However, part of the export comes from the processing of imported materials by southern plants. Recently, the domestic - to - overseas price comparison is weak, and the overseas demand is general. The export volume will maintain a basic level. The export to Southeast Asia and South Asia has increased significantly [163][165]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The plastic - weaving operating rate is declining and may continue to weaken with the Spring Festival. The packaging operating rate is the same as the same period last year, and the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is better than other products. The industry profit is at a high level, and the order cycle continues to increase. The profit of tape master rolls is compressed, and they are actively reducing their finished - product inventory, but it is still higher than the same period. The number of orders has declined seasonally, which may suppress the elasticity of BOPP, etc. The CPP is actively reducing its finished - product inventory, and the raw - material inventory is at a high level. The demand for PP non - woven fabrics is acceptable, and the raw - material inventory has slightly accumulated. The pipe - making operating rate is declining, and the injection - molding operating rate has increased against the season [179][184][190][193][195]. - Inventory: The supply has declined temporarily. The upstream is actively reducing inventory, and the low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. The oil - based inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the standard - product explicit factory inventory is at a neutral level [172][174].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场横盘运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4459元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，月初纸企报盘多数稳定，市 场观望氛围较浓；第二，华南地区个别停机产线复产，双胶纸行业开工小幅上升，供给压力增加；第三，部分中小印厂开工下滑，双胶纸下 游消耗偏缓慢，拿货热情不佳；第四，上游木浆市场整体下行，成本面对双胶纸支撑减弱。 2、据卓创资讯数据监测统 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 8 日 生猪：堰塞湖显露，近端压力超预期 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（2.1-2.8） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 30 元/公斤（上周 29.2 元/公斤），本周河南生 猪价格 12.43 元/公斤（上周 12.68 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1559 元/头（上周 1559 元/ 头）。供应端，节前出栏时间紧迫，集团企业增量出栏，南北方散户略增量，出栏意愿增强；需求端，下 游屠宰旺季亏损，旺季虽至，宰量增幅不及预期。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.23KG （上周 124.33KG），出栏均重环比下降 0.08%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2603 合约最高价为 11330 元/吨，最低价为 10855 元/吨，收盘价为 10860 元/吨（上周同期 11220 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2603 合约基差为 15 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The supply side is tightening as overseas production areas enter the减产季, which provides bottom - support for rubber prices. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream tire factories are shutting down, leading to a temporary weakening of demand. High inventory also suppresses the natural rubber market. The short - term market is in a situation where the tightening supply and weakening demand are intertwined [101][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In Q4 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 58.947 million units, with various sub - markets showing weakness [5]. - In January 2026, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 1.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of about 40% [6]. - In January 2026, the export volume of natural rubber in Cote d'Ivoire decreased by 1.8% year - on - year and 5.8% month - on - month to 163,000 tons [6]. - In 2025, the total export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber in Indonesia increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the export volume to China increased by 106% year - on - year [6]. - According to the ANRPC December 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year to 14.9 million tons, and the consumption is expected to decrease by 0.7% year - on - year to 15.344 million tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, the trends of rubber futures were divergent. RU, NR, and TSR20 on the Singapore Exchange declined, while Japanese rubber rose. On February 6, 2026, the closing price of RU2605 was 16,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71%; the closing price of NR2605 was 13,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 was 187.90 cents/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2605 was 341.50 yen/kg, a month - on - month increase of 3.42% [9][11]. Basis, Spread and Substitute Prices - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of whole milk - RU05 was - 180 yuan/ton on February 6, 2026, with a month - on - month increase of 14.29% and a year - on - year increase of 69.49%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 22.22% and a year - on - year increase of 165.63% [17]. - **Other Spreads**: RU - NR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while RU - BR spread increased. For example, on February 6, 2026, the RU - NR spread was 2,995 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the RU - BR spread was 3,230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.00% [18][20]. - **Substitute Prices**: Affected by the expected decline in downstream demand for butadiene and the expected increase in domestic supply, the high production cost pressure of butadiene rubber has been slightly alleviated. The production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber has recovered to a high level. Due to the end of pre - holiday stocking and the weakening of cost support, the synthetic rubber futures price has significantly decreased [29]. Fund Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled capital increased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR also decreased, and the settled capital increased. On February 6, 2026, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 17.63, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%; the settled capital was 6.979 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 5.86%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 19.23, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58%; the settled capital was 2.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% [32][34]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - Weather: The rainy season in southern and northeastern Thailand has basically ended. The rainy season in Hainan and Yunnan in China has also basically ended [37][39]. - Raw Material Prices: As overseas production areas transition to the off - season, the raw material supply is relatively tight, and the procurement prices have generally increased [41]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has widened. The domestic production areas are basically in the off - season, and the price update has been suspended [46]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The overall processing profit of rubber in Thailand has declined [47]. - Exports: In December 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month. In January 2026, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month. In November 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased slightly month - on - month. In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month. In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased month - on - month [58][64][70][72]. - **Demand** - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Full - steel tires accumulated inventory, while semi - steel tires entered the seasonal de - stocking period. On February 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tires was 60.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 72.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00% [82][81]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Duty Truck Sales: In December 2025, the export of full - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month, while the export of semi - steel tires continued to recover. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks decreased month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [86]. - Road Transport Turnover: In December 2025, the freight turnover and passenger turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month [87]. - **Inventory** - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory has increased. The inventory in Qingdao has increased due to the arrival volume. The inbound volume has increased by 6.7% month - on - month. Vietnamese rubber tends to accumulate inventory, while Yunnan generally continues to reduce inventory [95]. - Futures Inventory: On February 6, 2026, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 112,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%; the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the INE was 51,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.89% [98]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.281 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [102]. - **Demand**: Many full - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10. Some enterprises are in the final stage, and the production has decreased. Semi - steel tire enterprises are stocking up on foreign trade inventory, and the current start - up is good. However, due to the suspension of logistics in some remote areas, there is a shortage of transportation capacity for pre - holiday stocking, which affects the shipment [102]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is tightening, and the demand side is under pressure. The short - term natural rubber market is in a situation of long - short entanglement, and the rubber price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [103]. - **Valuation**: As of Friday, the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3,030 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 980 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton [104]. - **Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long on dips for single - side trading. Observe for calendar spread trading. For cross - variety trading, go long on NR and short on RU. If worried about a sharp rise in RU due to a shortage of warehouse receipts, consider buying call options for the 05 and 09 contracts for protection [105].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2026年2月8日 CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：短期偏强，地缘问题仍是关键 | | 近期市场仍然维持高波动，价格在周一下跌之后持续回弹。高硫方面，地缘问题仍然没有得到解决，中东地区随时可能因冲突发生而出现断供， | | --- | --- | | | 现货市场仍然表现强势，新加坡市场的成交升贴水持续维持高位。在地缘冲突得到明确解决路径之前，市场的担忧情绪将持续存在，对现货价 | | | 格有 ...