所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-08-08 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-08-08 所长 早读 特朗普与普京可能很快会面 观点分享： 据央视报道，当地时间 8 月 7 日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫对媒体说，根据美方提议， 俄美原则上同意在近期举行两国元首会晤。他表示举行本次会晤的地点基本上已经商定。随 后，俄罗斯总统普京表示，俄美双方都有意举行两国元首会晤，阿联酋是适合举行会晤的地 点之一。普京说"我已经多次表示总体上不反对，这一会晤是有可能的，但为此需要创造一 定的条件。很遗憾，距离创造出那些条件还差得远。"之前有报道，美国总统特朗普表示， 他愿意在俄罗斯总统普京尚未同意与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会谈的情况下与普京会面。特朗普 曾经表示他对普京的行为 "非常失望"，可能最早在周五就对俄罗斯施加额外惩罚，而在特 朗普与普京下周会面的可能性越来越大的情况下，尽管特朗普没有解除俄罗斯额外关税惩罚 的威胁，但真正实施可能性也是越来越小的。在俄乌战争在进入第四个年头之后似乎也看到 了停战的一丝曙光，但以普京的谈判风格，恐怕难以对迅速停战过于期待。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has weak cost support [1]. - Propylene shows short - term weak and volatile trends [2]. - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,823 yesterday with a - 0.83% daily increase and 3,825 at night with a 0.05% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,291 yesterday with a - 0.58% daily increase and 4,296 at night with a 0.12% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,480 yesterday with a - 0.22% daily increase and 6,463 at night with a - 0.26% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,525 yesterday with a - 0.40% daily increase and 6,525 at night with a 0.00% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 75,511 yesterday, a decrease of 8,218 from the previous day, and the open interest was 105,762, an increase of 2,838; for PG2510, the trading volume was 27,905 yesterday, a decrease of 7,248, and the open interest was 87,463, an increase of 2,060; for PL2601, the trading volume was 1,118 yesterday, a decrease of 804, and the open interest was 4,534, an increase of 108 [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 527 (previous day: 495); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 517 (previous day: 485); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 205 (previous day: - 234); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 155 (previous day: - 194); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 155 (previous day: - 219) [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate was 73.8% this week (last week: 72.6%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.6% this week (last week: 67.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 50.0% this week (last week: 48.8%) [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 6, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectations were propane at 526 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton from the previous trading day) and butane at 496 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton); the October Saudi CP expectations were propane at 541 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton) and butane at 511 USD/ton (up 5 USD/ton) [11]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, also with an undetermined end - date [12]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises have device maintenance plans, like Shengli Heavy Oil Plant in Shandong having a full - plant maintenance from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 and a loss volume of 400 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own unique market situation and influencing factors, such as macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [2][11][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payroll data weakened, and the price showed certain strength. The trend intensity is 1. For example, Comex gold 2510 had a 1.48% daily increase [2][6]. - **Silver**: There was a slight rebound, with a trend intensity of 1. Comex silver 2510 rose 1.57% [2][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supported the price. The trend intensity is 0. China's un - wrought copper and copper products imports in July increased compared to the same period last year [11][13]. - **Zinc**: It showed range - bound fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0. LME zinc inventory decreased [14]. - **Lead**: The increase in LME cancelled warrants supported the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [17]. - **Tin**: It was in range - bound fluctuations, with a trend intensity of - 1 [19][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price was under pressure. The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread and other indicators changed [25][26]. - **Nickel**: The multi - empty game intensified, and the nickel price had narrow - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [27]. - **Stainless Steel**: There was a game between the reality of supply elasticity and macro - expectations, and the steel price fluctuated, with a trend intensity of 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production increase led to inventory accumulation. The trend intensity is 1. The weekly production increased by 2288 tons, and the industry inventory increased by 692 tons [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inventory was being reduced, and market sentiment should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [37]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market information, with a trend intensity of 1 [37]. - **Iron Ore**: It showed repeated fluctuations, with a trend intensity of - 1. China's iron ore imports in July decreased compared to the previous month [41][42]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They showed relatively strong fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [44][45]. - **Log**: It showed repeated fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [48]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand pressure increased, and the trend was weak, with a trend intensity of - 1 [54]. - **PTA**: The processing fee was at a low level, and attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts, with a trend intensity of - 1 [54]. - **MEG**: Go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX, with a trend intensity of 0 [54]. - **Rubber**: It was in range - bound operation, with a trend intensity of 0 [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Due to repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: It was in high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Exports were good, and the US soybean price rose, so the Dalian soybean meal might follow the rebound [4]. - **Corn**: It was in a weak operation [4]. - **Sugar**: It was in a volatile period [4]. - **Cotton**: It had narrow - range fluctuations [4]. - **Egg**: There was a rebound sentiment in the spot market [4]. - **Live Pig**: The transaction was poor, and the reverse spread should be maintained [4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [4].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 08 日 短纤：下方空间有限，短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：下方空间有限，短期震荡市，多 PF 空 PR 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | 6298 | 6298 | 0 | PF08-09 | -18 | -52 | 34 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6316 | 6350 | -34 | PF09-10 | -76 | -32 | -44 | | | 短纤2510 | 6392 | 6382 | 10 | PF基差 | 174 | 150 | 24 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 328224 | 324371 | 3853 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 490 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are under pressure, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate and decline, and cast aluminum alloy prices will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,750, the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,611. Trading volumes and positions in both domestic and international markets have changed. For example, the SHFE aluminum main - contract trading volume is 132,302, and the LME aluminum 3M trading volume is 17,313. The LME canceled warrant ratio is 3.03% [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 3,211. Trading volumes and positions have also changed, with the trading volume at 280,531 and the position at 122,006 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,135. The trading volume is 1,954, and the position is 8,695 [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The spot premium and discounts, premiums in different regions, processing fees, and price differences between refined and scrap aluminum have changed. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit is 3,951.96, and the aluminum spot import profit and loss is - 1,452.94 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 3,275, and the CIF price in Lianyungang is 400 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 257, and the price of Baotai ADC12 is 19,700 [1]. Other Information - **External News**: The US has imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss products, and Switzerland will continue to negotiate with the US. The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and inflation risks have intensified internal differences [3].

商 品 研 究 豆粕：出口较好、美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：移仓换月，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4134 | +16（+0.39%） 4127 -1 | （-0.02%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | 3031 | +4（+0.13%） 3036 | +16（+0.53%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 994.5 | +9.25（+0.94%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.2 +4.1 | n a （+1.46%） | | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | 2950～3000， 较昨-20至持平； M2509-60， 持平； | 现货基差M2509-100/-60/-30 ...

2025 年 08 月 08 日 对二甲苯：供需压力增加，趋势偏弱 PTA：加工费低位，关注计划外减产 MEG：多 MEG 空 PTA/PX 期 货 研 究 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6756 | 4688 | 4396 | 6392 | 501 | | 涨跌 | 6794 | -36 | -18 | -22 | -4.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.56% | -0.76% | -0.41% | -0.34% | -0.97% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF9-1 | SC9-10 | | 昨日收盘价 | 46 | -38 | -34 | -96 | 4.1 | | 前日收盘价 | 50 | -30 | -21 | -74 | 4.9 | | 涨跌 | -4 | -8 | -13 | -22 | -0.8 | | 现货 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 8 日 PP：现货下跌，成交一般 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2509 | 7075 | -0.13% | 156,261 | -5827 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 09合约基差 | -75 | | - 8 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | -31 | | -42 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | | | | 华北 | 6920 - | 7050 | 7000 - 7120 | | | | 华东 | 7000 - | 7130 | 7070 - 7170 | | | | 华南 | 6950 - | 7130 | 7000 - 7200 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场部分松 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that on August 7, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. The overall trading volume of stock index futures increased, indicating a rise in investors' trading enthusiasm. The report also presents data on price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and the position changes of the top 20 members of the futures contracts, along with information on trend strength and important economic drivers [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Index and Spot Data Tracking - **Index Futures Price and Change**: On August 7, the closing prices of the four major stock indexes showed different trends. The CSI 300 rose 0.03% to 4,114.67, the SSE 50 rose 0.03% to 2,798.31, the CSI 500 fell 0.31% to 6,337.54, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.01% to 6,862.15. Among the corresponding futures contracts, IF2508 fell 0.07%, IH2508 fell 0.01%, IC2508 fell 0.50%, and IM2508 fell 0.18% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of all four major stock index futures increased. IF increased by 19,361 lots, IH by 11,776 lots, IC by 15,809 lots, and IM by 19,113 lots. The total open interest also increased, with IF up 7,431 lots, IH up 2,077 lots, IC up 3,443 lots, and IM up 4,114 lots [1][2]. 3.2 Basis Data The report provides the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from July 14 to August 7, showing the basis changes of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [4]. 3.3 Position Changes of Top 20 Members The report shows the long and short position changes of the top 20 members of each futures contract. For example, in the IF contracts, the long positions of IF2508 and IF2509 increased by 2,185 and 4,996 lots respectively, and the short positions increased by 1,562 and 3,282 lots respectively [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers In July, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 8% year - on - year (previous value: 7.2%), imports increased by 4.8% (previous value: 2.4%), and the trade surplus was 705.1 billion yuan (previous value: 825.8 billion yuan). In US dollars, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.9%), imports increased by 4.1% (previous value: 1.1%), and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars (previous value: 114.75 billion US dollars). In the first seven months, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. 3.6 Stock Market Performance The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.85 trillion yuan, up from 1.76 trillion yuan the previous day. The rare earth permanent magnet concept led to a warming of cyclical stocks, and the military stocks maintained their popularity. The rare earth permanent magnet, rare earth, and IGBT concepts led the gains, while three pharmaceutical sub - sectors, CRO, weight - loss drugs, and innovative drugs, led the decline [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Weakening trend, hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads [5][12] - PTA: Weakening trend, consider long - short spreads at low levels, hold short positions on a single - side basis [5][12] - MEG: Long MEG and short PTA/PX [6][12] - Rubber: Sideways movement [13] - Synthetic rubber: Short - term sideways movement [17] - Asphalt: Weakening sideways movement [21] - LLDPE: Still under pressure [37] - PP: Spot prices down, average trading volume [41] - Caustic soda: Low valuation, take a long position on peak - season contracts [44] - Pulp: Sideways movement [49] - Glass: Stable original sheet prices [55] - Methanol: Under pressure and moving sideways [59] - Urea: Short - term under pressure and moving sideways [64] - Styrene: Take profit when squeezing profits [67] - Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [70] - LPG: Weak cost support [75] - Propylene: Short - term weak sideways movement [76] - PVC: Weakening sideways movement [90] - Fuel oil: Weakening again, mainly short - term sideways movement [92] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Continuing to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market keeps declining [92] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold short positions on the October contract as appropriate [94] - Short - fiber: Limited downside space, short - term sideways movement, long PF and short PR [32] - Bottle chips: Limited downside space, short - term sideways movement, long PF and short PR [32] - Offset printing paper: Sideways movement at a low level, lack of upward momentum [34] - Pure benzene: Weakening sideways movement [35] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities. For example, some products are under pressure due to increased supply or weak demand, while others may have potential upward momentum due to cost support or expected policy changes [12][38][62] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand pressure increases, prices follow the decline of upstream crude oil and naphtha. PTA device out - of - plan maintenance may lead to weaker demand for PX. Hold 9 - 1 reverse spreads [8][12] - **PTA**: Spot supply is sufficient, basis weakens. Low processing fees may lead to out - of - plan changes in PTA's operating load. Consider long - short spreads at low levels, hold short positions on a single - side basis [9][12] - **MEG**: Overseas multiple devices have maintenance plans, imports in September may decline. Long MEG and short PTA, pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the main contract roll - over [12] Rubber - The futures market shows an increase in trading volume and positions. The spot market has little change in prices. The raw material prices in Thailand decline, while those in Yunnan are firm, and the supply in Hainan gradually recovers. The overall trend is sideways [14][16] Synthetic rubber - The futures market has changes in trading volume, positions, and prices. The spot market shows price fluctuations in various products. The inventory of sample enterprises increases slightly, and the port inventory of butadiene rises. The short - term trend is sideways [17][18] Asphalt - The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The spot market shows price increases in some regions and a decline in refinery operating rates. The overall trend is weakening sideways [22][36] LLDPE - The spot market has narrow price fluctuations. Macro data is bearish, cost support weakens. Supply pressure increases in the third quarter, but the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical in September may relieve the supply pressure in the East China region. The trend is still under pressure [37][38] PP - The spot market has partial price declines, and trading volume is average. The futures market has little guidance on the spot market. The short - term trend is neutral [41][42] Caustic soda - The current price decline is due to high enterprise operating rates, off - season demand, and price competition in exports. The 09 - contract valuation is at a low level, and the cost support is strong. The downstream peak - season restocking may drive the price upward. Take a long position on peak - season contracts [46] Pulp - The futures market has price increases and a decline in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows price declines in various pulp types. The price is affected by factors such as futures decline, weak demand, and supply pressure. The overall trend is sideways [50][53] Glass - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows stable to slightly weak prices, and short - term sales are under pressure. The trend is neutral [56] Methanol - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in positions. The spot market shows price declines in ports and increases in some inland areas. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as fund outflows and basis strengthening, and the medium - term trend is sideways [60][62] Urea - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in trading volume and positions. The spot market shows price fluctuations in some regions. The daily production and operating rate increase, and the enterprise inventory decreases. The short - term trend is under pressure, and the medium - term trend is sideways [64][66] Styrene - The pure benzene supply and demand increase, while the styrene supply increases and demand decreases. The styrene port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase. Focus on squeezing the profit of styrene. Take profit when squeezing profits [67][68] Soda ash - The futures market has price declines and a decrease in positions. The spot market shows little change, with weak and stable prices and average trading volume. The trend is neutral [72] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: The futures market has price declines and changes in trading volume and positions. The cost support is weak. Pay attention to the changes in relevant indicators such as PDH operating rate [76] - **Propylene**: The short - term trend is weak sideways movement [76] PVC - The spot market has firm prices, but the trading atmosphere is dull. The industry profit expands, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. The market may short the chlor - alkali profit. The trend is weakening sideways [89][90] Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil - **Fuel oil**: The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The price weakens again, and the short - term trend is sideways [92] - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Continuing to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market keeps declining [92] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The futures market has price changes and trading volume fluctuations. The freight rates of relevant routes decline. Hold short positions on the October contract as appropriate [94]