Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost - supported, with a unilateral trend of being oscillatory and slightly strong. PXN is expected to fall, and factories are advised to hedge when the spread is between 240 - 250 US dollars [10]. - **PTA**: Demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by oil prices. The new PTA device of Xin Fengming is planned to start this week [10]. - **MEG**: Reduce short positions. Pay attention to the restart of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device in November and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [11]. - **Rubber**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by macro - sentiment, with a rising central value, but facing fundamental pressure [16][18]. - **Asphalt**: Strengthened by the rebound of crude oil [19]. - **LLDPE**: With a weakening trend due to supply pressure and inventory accumulation [30][31]. - **PP**: Still showing a weak trend, suppressed by factors such as continuous high supply and trade wars [33][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction of alumina production [38]. - **Pulp**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [41][44]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [45]. - **Methanol**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, with fundamental pressure and macro - support [48][51][52]. - **Urea**: Supported by macro - factors, with a short - term rebound, but facing medium - term pressure [53][55]. - **Styrene**: Temporarily following the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term oscillatory pattern [56]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market shows little change, expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [59]. - **LPG**: Significantly supported by cost, but with macro - risks [62]. - **Propylene**: Supported by cost, with a short - term rebound from a low level [63]. - **PVC**: With a weakening trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [70]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continuing to rise strongly, and the strong trend will continue. The upward trend of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly shrunk [73]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Relatively resistant to decline [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: On October 23, the price of PX in Asia increased, following the rise of crude oil. The load of PTA devices changed, and the overall start - up load of MEG in the Chinese mainland decreased. The polyester load remained stable, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased [5][8][9]. - **Trend and Suggestion**: PX is oscillatory and slightly strong, and factories are advised to hedge PXN spreads. PTA demand is expected to improve, and MEG short positions should be reduced [10][11]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the rubber futures market increased, and the positions decreased. The prices of glue and cup - glue in Thailand increased, and the raw material prices in Yunnan increased slightly. The supply in Hainan decreased due to typhoons, and the raw material supply in Vietnam was limited [13][14][15]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market increased, and the positions decreased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene increased [16][17]. - **Trend**: Supported by macro - sentiment, with a rising central value, but facing fundamental pressure [16][18]. Asphalt - **Market Data**: The asphalt futures prices increased, and the trading volume and positions changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate increased slightly. The domestic asphalt production in November is expected to decrease, and the factory and social inventories decreased [19][29]. - **Trend**: Strengthened by the rebound of crude oil [19]. LLDPE - **Market Data**: The LLDPE futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic PE market price decreased overall, with a slight increase in some varieties over the weekend [30]. - **Trend**: With a weakening trend due to supply pressure and inventory accumulation [30][31]. PP - **Market Data**: The PP futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic PP market price rebounded after a decline, with a downward - moving price center [33][34]. - **Trend**: Still showing a weak trend, suppressed by factors such as continuous high supply and trade wars [33][34]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The price of caustic soda futures and the spot price in Shandong remained stable. The supply pressure of caustic soda is not large, but the far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction of alumina production [37][38]. - **Trend**: The far - month valuation is suppressed [38]. Pulp - **Market Data**: The pulp futures trading volume decreased, and the positions decreased. The domestic and international prices of pulp varieties changed, and the port inventory decreased but remained at a high level. The downstream demand was weak [42][43][44]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner [41]. Glass - **Market Data**: The glass futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The domestic float glass market price remained stable, with a slight improvement in overall sales [46]. - **Trend**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [45]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The port inventory increased slightly, with different trends in different regions [49][51]. - **Trend**: Expected to move in an oscillatory manner, with fundamental pressure and macro - support [48][51][52]. Urea - **Market Data**: The urea futures price increased, and the positions decreased. The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly, and the spot trading improved [53][54][55]. - **Trend**: Supported by macro - factors, with a short - term rebound, but facing medium - term pressure [53][55]. Styrene - **Market Data**: The styrene futures prices changed, and the profit margins of different production methods decreased. The port inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene turned into de - stocking expectations [56][57]. - **Trend**: Temporarily following the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term oscillatory pattern [56]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The soda ash futures price increased, and the positions increased. The domestic soda ash market was stable, with an increase in supply and weak demand [59]. - **Trend**: The spot market shows little change, expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [59]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Data**: The LPG and propylene futures prices increased, and the trading volume and positions changed. The CP prices of propane and butane increased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [63][67][68]. - **Trend**: LPG is supported by cost but has macro - risks; propylene is supported by cost with a short - term rebound [62][63]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC futures price and the spot price remained stable. The production decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market is affected by trade wars, with weak demand and high inventory [70]. - **Trend**: With a weakening trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [70]. Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The fuel oil futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume and positions changed. The spot prices of fuel oil in different regions increased [73]. - **Trend**: Continuing to rise strongly, and the strong trend will continue. The upward trend of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly shrunk [73]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Data**: The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices changed, and the trading volume and positions changed. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased [75]. - **Trend**: Relatively resistant to decline [75].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Core Views - Report's industry investment suggestions: PX to follow oil price rebound and short PXN at high levels; PTA to go long on PX and short on PTA with a unilateral upward trend; MEG to expect demand improvement and short - term rebound [1] - Core view on PX: Cost - supported, with a unilateral upward - biased trend. PXN has declined as expected, and factories are advised to hedge when the spread is between $240 - $250. Supply - demand is slightly tight [7] - Core view on PTA: Demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by oil prices. New devices are planned to start, and the entire industrial chain's consumption is expected to improve [7] - Core view on MEG: Reduce short positions. Pay attention to the restart of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's 800,000 - ton device in November and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [8] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Data - PX futures: Yesterday's closing price was 6496, up 46 (0.71%); PX1 - 5 spread was - 24, unchanged [2] - PTA futures: Yesterday's closing price was 4508, up 26 (0.58%); PTA1 - 5 spread was - 64, unchanged [2] - MEG futures: Yesterday's closing price was 4095, up 44 (1.09%); MEG1 - 5 spread was - 68, up 2 [2] - PF futures: Yesterday's closing price was 6160, up 24 (0.39%); PF12 - 1 spread was - 28, down 4 [2] - SC futures: Yesterday's closing price was 459.7, up 12.5 (2.80%); SC11 - 12 spread was - 3.9, up 0.2 [2] Spot Data - PX spot: Yesterday's price was $812/ton, up $13.67 [2] - PTA spot: Yesterday's price was 4430 yuan/ton, up 60 [2] - MEG spot: Yesterday's price was 4186 yuan/ton, up 64 [2] - Naphtha MOPJ: Yesterday's price was $573.12/ton, up $21.62 [2] - Dated Brent: Yesterday's price was $65.53/barrel, up $3.33 [2] Spot Processing Fee Data - PX - naphtha spread: Yesterday's price was $246.17, up $6.34 [2] - PTA processing fee: Yesterday's price was 144.83 yuan/ton, down 7.3 [2] - Short - fiber processing fee: Yesterday's price was 380.77 yuan/ton, down 0.5 [2] - Bottle - chip processing fee: Yesterday's price was 154.12 yuan/ton, up 14.48 [2] - MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread: Yesterday's price was - 4.34, unchanged [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics Summary - Crude oil: Oil prices rose after the US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies [2][3] - PX: Asian PX prices rose on October 23, following the increase in crude oil prices and supported by the improved sentiment in the downstream polyester industry [2] - PTA: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device reduced its load, and some devices resumed. The PTA load on Thursday was 78.8%, and the current operating rate is around 84.6% [5] - MEG: A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China stopped temporarily for 3 - 5 days. As of October 23, the overall operating load in mainland China was 73.28% (down 3.87% from the previous period). Two US MEG devices with a total capacity of 380,000 tons/year restarted [6] - Polyester: This week, there were no significant changes in polyester devices, and the polyester load remained stable. As of Thursday, the domestic polyester load was around 91.4%. The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75%. The sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments increased locally today, with an average sales rate of around 100%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined, with an average sales rate of 77% [6] Group 4: Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 [7] - PTA trend intensity: 1 [7] - MEG trend intensity: 1 [7]

观点与策略 | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：升贴水疲弱，上方空间有限 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注仓单注册情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 6 | 2025年10月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT WedaBav Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛，今年 已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷，包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 张再宇 ...

2025 年 10 月 24 日 螺纹钢：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：表需环比向好，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | （元/吨） 涨跌 | （%） 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2601 | 3,068 | 18 | 0.59 | | 期 货 | HC2601 | 3,247 | 26 | 0.81 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2601 | 822,987 | 1,977,511 | -18,322 | | | HC2601 | 423,300 | 1,501,176 | -8,822 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | | | 杭州 螺 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 | 期指："十五五"目标出炉，偏强震荡 | | --- | 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4606.34 | ↑0.30 | | 4208 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4593.6 | ↑0.34 | -12.74 | 391.5 | 28655 | ↑6941 | 42758 | ↑4081 | | IF2512 | 4580.8 | ↑0.32 | -25.54 | 1145.7 | 84087 | ↑18947 | 160208 | ↑8650 | | IF2603 | 4553.8 | ↑0.31 | -52.54 | 171.5 | 12656 | ↑4633 | 5 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 铜：情绪回暖，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | | 85,400 | 0.02% | 86730 | 1.56% | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | | 10,817 | 1.49% | - | - | | 昨日成交 | | | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 192,281 | -9,114 | 544,945 | 12,219 | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | | 24,037 | -8,185 | 316,000 | -1,677 | | 昨日期货库存 | | | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪铜 | | 36,048 | -505 | - | - | | 伦铜 | | 136,925 | 75 | 7.87% | 1.09% | | LME铜 ...

2025 年 10 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：市场情绪转好、美豆偏强，或反弹震荡 豆一：偏强震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4113 | +63（+1.56%） 4115 | +34（+0.83%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2938 | +66（+2.03%） 2939 | +23（+0.79%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1045 +9 | （+0.87%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | +2.1 292 | n a （+0.72%） | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 较昨+20； 2970～2980， 持平或-10； M2601+60/+70/+100， | 现货基差M2601+80， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The Russia-Ukraine crisis is easing [2]. - Silver: It is in a volatile rebound [2]. - Copper: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to LME inventories [2]. - Lead: Inventory is continuously decreasing, resulting in price increases [2]. - Tin: Focus on macro - economic impacts [2]. - Aluminum: The price center is moving up; Alumina is in bottom - range oscillation; Cast aluminum alloy has upward potential [2]. - Nickel: It shows short - term narrow - range oscillation, and contradictions are still accumulating [2]. - Stainless steel: There is no upward driving force in supply and demand, but cost limits the downside space [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold,沪金2512 closed at 952.56 with a daily decline of 4.17%, and its night - session price was 934.72 with a decline of 1.56%. For silver,沪银2512 closed at 11404 with a daily decline of 3.42%, and its night - session price was 11331 with a gain of 0.04%. Trading volumes and open interests of various contracts also changed to different extents [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Gold and silver inventories in different markets changed, and there were also changes in various spreads such as cross - period spreads and basis spreads [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 85400 with a daily gain of 0.02%, and its night - session price was 86730 with a gain of 1.56%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪铜 and伦铜3M also changed [9]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Copper inventories in沪铜 and伦铜 changed, and various spreads such as LME copper spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [9]. - **Industry News**: Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year. Codelco plans to sell copper to European customers at a record - high premium next year. China's copper import and export data in September also changed [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22345 with a daily gain of 1.57%, and伦锌3M closed at 3019.5 with a gain of 0.87%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪锌 and伦锌 also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Zinc inventories in沪锌 and LME changed, and various spreads such as LME zinc spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铅主力 was 17565 with a daily gain of 2.27%, and伦铅3M closed at 1995 with a gain of 0.10%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪铅 and伦铅 also changed [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Lead inventories in沪铅 and LME decreased, and various spreads such as LME lead spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 was 281680 with a daily gain of 0.29%, and伦锡3M closed at 35475 with a gain of 0.50%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪锡 and伦锡 also changed [19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Tin inventories in沪锡 and伦锡 changed, and various spreads such as LME tin spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME aluminum prices changed, and trading volumes and open interests also had different trends. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, prices, trading volumes, and open interests also changed [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Aluminum inventories in different markets changed, and various spreads such as LME aluminum spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [23]. - **Industry News**: China will focus on building a modern industrial system, and the US established a critical minerals fund [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are 1, indicating a bullish outlook; Alumina trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪镍主力 was 121380, and that of stainless steel主力 was 12765. Trading volumes and open interests of沪镍 and stainless steel also changed [26]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [28].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: The center of gravity moves upward [1] - Alumina: Oscillates at the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Has upward elasticity [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory in the futures and spot markets [1] - "During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will focus on building a modern industrial system, achieving high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength, building a strong domestic market, and accelerating the construction of a high - level socialist market economic system. The US has established a critical minerals investment fund with a target scale of $5 billion" [3] - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 21,165, with changes of 120 compared to T - 1, 190 compared to T - 5, 445 compared to T - 22, and 30 compared to T - 66. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 2,865 [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,838, with changes of 9 compared to T - 1, - 122 compared to T - 5, - 233 compared to T - 22, and 48 compared to T - 66 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is not provided, and the night - session closing price is 20,705 [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit is 4,959.89, with changes of 72.03 compared to T - 1, 161.71 compared to T - 5, 796.28 compared to T - 22, and 612.09 compared to T - 66. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 60.70 million tons [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price is 2,929, with changes of - 6 compared to T - 1, - 33 compared to T - 5, - 217 compared to T - 22, and - 192 compared to T - 66 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 44, with changes of - 160 compared to T - 1, - 160 compared to T - 5, - 118 compared to T - 22, and 449 compared to T - 66 [1] Other Information - The US government, private equity firm Orion Resource Partners, and Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ have established a critical minerals investment fund with an initial commitment of $1.8 billion and a target scale of $5 billion [3]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 短纤：成本抬升需求正反馈，短期反弹， PF-PR 价差走扩 瓶片：成本抬升，短期反弹，PF-PR 价差走扩 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6142 | 6146 | -4 | PF11-12 | -18 | 10 | -28 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6160 | 6136 | 24 | PF12-01 | -28 | 58 | -86 | | | 短纤2601 | 6188 | 6078 | 110 | PF主力基差 | 155 | 164 | -9 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 199910 | 164110 | 35800 | 短纤华东现货价格 ...