Report Summary 1. Overall Investment Outlook - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest product in the polyester industry chain [15] 2. Core Views - PX: After a negative feedback cycle, PX processing fees have reached a reasonable level, and the pressure on short - selling has eased. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 positive spread and the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3] - PTA: It is expected to enter a pattern of declining demand. The downside space for the unilateral price is limited, and attention should be paid to the position of narrowing the processing fees [4] - MEG: In the medium - term, it will be in a volatile market with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the basis and spread increasing [5] 3. Summary by Product PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PXN spread is at $326/ton (-$18), and the PX - MX spread is $145/ton. The internal - external spread arbitrage space has narrowed, and the 3 - 5 spread has rebounded from the bottom [3][23] - The gasoline inventory has been rising, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy has declined [32][41] - **Supply and Inventory** - Domestic PX production is at a high level, with an operating rate of 89.4% (-1.5%). Overseas, the Asian overall load is 80.6% (-0.6%). The import volume in the first quarter is expected to increase [3][63] - In December, the PX inventory was 445 million tons (+6) [90] PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The basis and spread have been declining. The PTA processing fee has increased, with the 05 - contract processing fee at 335 yuan/ton (+20) and the spot processing fee at 378 yuan/ton (+59) [96][104] - **Supply and Inventory** - The PTA operating rate is 76.9% (-1.1%). In November, the PTA export was 360,000 tons, with significant increases in Egypt, Oman, and India [108][112] - The total inventory is at a low level, but the inventory accumulation in February is expected to be significant [127] MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral price has rebounded from the bottom, but the spread structure is still weak. The relative valuation has been decreasing [150][155] - The coal - based device profit is - 295 yuan/ton (-34), and the oil - based device continues to be in a loss situation [157] - **Supply and Inventory** - The MEG operating rate is 74.4%. The coal - based load is at a high level, and the import volume in 1 - 2 months is expected to decrease [5][160] - The port inventory is at a high level [172] Polyester - **Production and Inventory** - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (-2%). The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not significant [179][187] - **Export and Profit** - From January to November, the total polyester export was 13.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The long - filament factory's loss has been repaired, and the profits of short - fiber and bottle - chip are acceptable [191][193] Terminal (Weaving and Textile) - **Domestic Market** - The domestic textile and clothing retail sales from January to November were 1359.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [223] - The weaving industry has a poor new order atmosphere, but there are sporadic improvements in some markets. The domestic demand orders are weakening, and the raw material inventory is increasing [215][219] - **Overseas Market** - The overseas textile and clothing retail data in the US and Europe are strongly rising. The US clothing and fabric inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [233][239]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Next week (January 19 - 23, 2026), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures may rebound. For soybean meal, the bearish impact of the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations has been priced in. After these factors are digested and with no further negative news, the price of soybean meal is expected to rebound from low levels. For soybean No. 1, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Performance Last Week (January 12 - 16, 2026) - US soybean futures prices first declined and then rose. The decline was due to the bearish USDA report, and the rise was due to Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (as the US may set the 2026 biofuel blending quota in March). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main US soybean contract for March 2026 fell 0.61%, and the main US soybean meal contract for March 2026 fell 4.58% [2]. - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated. For soybean meal, it was affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. For soybean No. 1, it was influenced by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly strong spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main soybean meal contract m2605 fell 2.12%, and the main soybean No. 1 contract a2605 fell 1.23% [2]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week - **Chinese Purchases**: China continued to purchase US soybeans, which was a positive factor. From January 12 to 16, the total number of large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations was about 1.4 million tons (mostly for delivery in 2025/26 and a few for 2026/27). For example, on January 13, 168,000 tons were sold to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico; on January 14, 334,000 tons were sold to China; on January 15, 204,000 tons were sold to China and 545,000 tons to unknown destinations [2]. - **US Soybean Export Sales**: In the week of January 8, 2026, US soybean net sales increased month - on - month, which was a moderately positive factor. In terms of shipments, in the 2025/26 season, US soybean exports were about 1.64 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative exports in the 2025/26 season were about 17.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. In terms of sales, the weekly net sales of the current season (2025/26) were about 2.06 million tons (880,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales of the next season (2026/27) were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (880,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current season (2025/26) were about 1.22 million tons (470,000 tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which was a negative factor. As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - **USDA Reports**: The January USDA reports were bearish. The ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season were raised, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. As of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. The inventory data in both USDA reports were higher than expected, having a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 is a positive factor and should be closely monitored [2][4]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Last Week - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, and more long - term basis contracts were traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at major oil mills in China was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal at major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal at major oil mills in China was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [5]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [5]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: All the imported soybeans in the auction were sold. On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were successfully sold at an average price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market Last Week - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean soybeans passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In some parts of Inner - Pass regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade packaged "tower - selected" Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [6]. - **Farmer and Trader Behavior**: Farmers in the Northeast产区 were reluctant to sell, and the market was cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expected prices to rise and asked for higher prices. Except for a few traders with orders who continued to purchase, most traders were cautious in purchasing and consumed their inventories, resulting in slow sales to the market. High prices restricted trading, and there was a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets [6]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The soybean price in the sales areas increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance was low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, leading to an increase in the arrival cost and a corresponding adjustment in the selling price. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which restricted the overall trading speed in the market [6].

2026 年 1 月 18 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采镍矿罚款，具体来看： 1）配额事件：1 月 8 日印尼能矿部表示配额将根据行业需求进行调整，1 月 14 日接受采访时表示目 标或削减至 2.6 亿吨镍矿配额。2024-2025 年的配额量确实超过实际冶炼刚需量，2026 年对需求的重新 梳理和配额的重新审视仍在进行中，目前仍在等待具体政策落地前的真空期，预计一季度或将明确具体政 策。如果放眼到长周期，印尼防止过剩和挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿吸引冶炼的红利周期结束，在 冶炼端产能过剩后，政策面或出现周期性的转向。如果 1-12 月 2.6 亿吨的配额落地，那么矿端紧缺可能 倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预期扭转为紧缺，并对存量的高库存形成冲击，这也是二级市场对上方仍有 想象的核心锚点。不过，从印尼下游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is currently in a relatively high position within the bottom - range oscillation. Although Malaysia will enter the de - stocking period, if the production cut in Malaysia in February is not significant enough under the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy, the fundamental situation of palm oil is not favorable, and it currently lacks the driving force to rise above 9000 yuan/ton. More definite long - entry opportunities for palm oil are expected in February - March. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on short - term operations, and there may be a second bottom - building if there are no more positive news [2][4][6] - Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation. The U.S. soybean is expected to show an oscillatory stabilization trend in January. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot prices can provide for the domestic soybean system's spread. Soybean oil is waiting for the thematic resonance of the entire oil and fat sector after it stabilizes [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - **Palm oil**: Last week, the palm oil market was highly volatile due to changing news. After the MPOB report on Monday fulfilled the expectation of a rebound after the release of negative factors, on Tuesday, news about the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 implementation hit a major positive factor for the palm oil market. With the weakening of geopolitical impacts, international oil prices dropped rapidly, and palm oil followed suit, falling to the first support range of 8400 - 8500. On Thursday night, news about the approaching implementation of U.S. biodiesel policy led to a rebound in U.S. soybean oil, and palm oil sentiment improved. The palm oil 05 contract rose 0.35% last week [1] - **Soybean oil**: Lacking South American weather - related speculation, the upward driving force of U.S. soybeans was limited. It mainly oscillated within a range following the oil and fat sector. The soybean oil 05 contract rose 0.58% last week [1] 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - **Supply and demand data**: MPOB released December palm oil supply - demand data, showing a 7.58% increase in inventory to 3.05 million tons and a 5.46% decrease in production to 1.8298 million tons compared to the previous month, in line with UOB and MPOA estimates. Although the inventory is high, the market had already priced in the December inventory peak. With the 18% production cut shown by SPPOMA in January and the 18% increase in exports in the first 15 days according to ITS, the inventory in January is expected to return to around 2.8 million tons. However, if the month - on - month production cut in January continues to be less than 10%, the annual production in 2026 may increase by 100,000 tons per month on average, releasing continuous supply pressure [2] - **Indonesia's policy impact**: Indonesia's B50 policy implementation is uncertain, and the government aims to fully implement B40 first. The advancement of B50 depends on technology and POGO levels. There is a fundamental logic for the POGO spread to shrink to $250/ton. Raising Indonesia's export tax may only stimulate Malaysia's exports in the short term but will increase pressure on Indonesia's inventory. Recently, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has shrunk, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has weakened, and Indonesia's refining profit has remained high, indicating a marginal improvement in Indonesia's willingness to sell, but it is not clear whether the selling pressure has increased significantly [2] - **Sales area situation**: In the sales areas, India's CPO import profit has declined recently. Although the previous good profit stimulated India's purchases, it was not enough to cause a short - squeeze situation since June. In China, the import profit gap has widened, and the release of the origin's pressure is slow [2] - **Outlook and strategy**: Palm oil is currently in a relatively high position within the bottom - range oscillation. The more definite long - entry opportunity needs to wait until February - March. In February, if Malaysia's production is less than 1.4 million tons, there will be a rapid de - stocking. In March, the release of the U.S. 2026 biodiesel policy will make the trading process more certain. From last year's rainfall pattern, Malaysia's production from April - May is expected to decline year - on - year, which may also be a potential driving factor. Currently, the valuation is not low, the driving force is not strong, and there may be a second bottom - building without more positive news. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [2][4][6] 3.2.2 Soybean oil - **U.S. biodiesel policy impact**: Reuters reported that the Trump administration is actively promoting the 2026 biofuel policy, expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. It is considered to set the volume range of D4 biomass diesel between 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandon the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. This news implies a possible increase in the RVO level, and the expected annual industrial demand for U.S. soybean oil has increased from 7 million tons to 8 - 9 million tons. However, considering the low energy prices and the possible inconsistent statements from the EPA, the upward space of U.S. soybean oil still needs to be viewed cautiously [5] - **U.S. soybean situation**: As of this week, the growth of Brazilian soybeans is generally good with a positive production outlook, while the core production areas in Argentina are dry, and attention should be paid to the later rainfall forecasts. The positive outlook for South American soybeans has put pressure on the U.S. soybean market. If Argentina does not experience a drought later, it is difficult for the CBOT soybeans in January to rebound significantly, and it is expected to show an oscillatory stabilization trend [5] - **Domestic situation**: China's customs may accelerate the release of imported soybeans in the first quarter, and the state - reserve auction of imported soybeans is progressing well, which weakens the spread sentiment. However, there will be a shortage of soybean arrivals from March - April, which may support the domestic soybean - related spot and spread to oscillate strongly. The short - term driving force of U.S. soybeans is limited. Due to insufficient export demand and arrivals, domestic soybean oil can maintain a monthly de - stocking process until March - April next year. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot prices can provide for the spread. Soybean oil is currently in a range - bound operation, waiting for the thematic resonance of the entire oil and fat sector after it stabilizes [5][6] 3.3 [盘面基本行情数据] (Basic Market Data of Futures) - **Futures prices and changes**: The opening price of the palm oil continuous contract was 8,630 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,866 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,490 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,674 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.35%. The opening price of the soybean oil continuous contract was 7,970 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,048 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,874 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,016 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.58%. The opening price of the rapeseed oil continuous contract was 9,025 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,158 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,806 yuan/ton, the closing price was 9,063 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.81%. The opening price of the Malaysian palm oil continuous contract was 4,042 ringgit/ton, the highest was 4,147 ringgit/ton, the lowest was 3,968 ringgit/ton, the closing price was 4,056 ringgit/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%. The opening price of the CBOT soybean oil continuous contract was 49.80 cents/pound, the highest was 53.48 cents/pound, the lowest was 49.80 cents/pound, the closing price was 52.51 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 5.74% [9] - **Trading volume and position changes**: The trading volume of the palm oil continuous contract was 2,707,371 lots, with an increase of 439,942 lots; the position was 415,079 lots, with an increase of 14,526 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil continuous contract was 2,267,429 lots, with an increase of 168,935 lots; the position was 716,141 lots, with an increase of 34,480 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil continuous contract was 999,966 lots, with an increase of 153,895 lots; the position was 269,628 lots, with an increase of 24,507 lots [9] - **Price spread and warehouse receipt changes**: The closing price of the rapeseed - soybean 05 spread was 1,047 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.10% compared to last week; the soybean - palm oil 05 spread was - 658 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4.36%; the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 12 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 89.29%; the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 130 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 16.67%; the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 53 yuan/ton, with an increase of 152.38%. The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 1,148 lots, a decrease of 100 lots compared to last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 27,959 lots, a decrease of 1,467 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 2,142 lots, an increase of 100 lots [9] 3.4 [油脂基本面核心数据] (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - **Malaysian palm oil**: The production in December was 1.8298 million tons, with a 5.46% month - on - month decrease. The inventory increased 7.58% to 3.05 million tons. In January, SPPOMA showed an 18% production cut, and ITS showed an 18% increase in exports in the first 15 days. The inventory in January is expected to return to around 2.8 million tons [2] - **Indonesian palm oil**: The end - of - year inventory is expected to return to a neutral - to - wide level. Recently, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia has shrunk, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra has weakened, and the refining profit has remained high, indicating a marginal improvement in the willingness to sell [2][12] - **Export and price spread**: ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 727,440 tons, a 18.64% increase compared to the same period last month. The POGO spread has been shrinking [12] - **Sales area data**: India's palm oil import profit is lower than that of soybean and sunflower oils, and the CNF price difference between soybean and palm oil in India has increased. The EU's cumulative palm oil imports in 2026 decreased by 10,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils and fats decreased by 40,000 tons [13][14] - **Base - spread data**: The palm oil (South China) basis to the 05 contract is - 50, and the soybean oil (Jiangsu) basis has strengthened oscillatory [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, with inventory accumulation and expected downstream production cuts, the supply - demand logic is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices, with a predicted price range of 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton next week [6][7] - For polysilicon, pay attention to the market sentiment boost next Tuesday. The supply is weak and demand is strong, and the price is expected to stay above the cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton. The predicted price range next week is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Futures participation is not recommended, but options can be considered [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The reference prices of industrial silicon in mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices in three major ports/warehouses have remained stable from December 25, 2025, to January 16, 2026 [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - This week, the weekly industrial silicon inventory increased slightly. The social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.42 million tons, with a total increase of 0.7 million tons. The start - up in Xinjiang increased, while that in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia decreased [3][11] - The cost in the southwest region during the dry season is estimated to be 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), and the local start - up has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang are still in the heat - preservation state, and some have slightly resumed production [3] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - This week, the polysilicon futures fluctuated within a range, and the spot price was stable. The upstream spot price may be loosened, and attention should be paid to the next restocking node of downstream in late January [2] - The short - term weekly polysilicon output decreased. In January 2026, silicon material manufacturers cut production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The current manufacturer inventory is around 320,000 tons, and the industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to five months of consumption [4] - The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week in January. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively reasonable, and price increases can be passed on to the downstream, supporting the increase in production. The component export tax rebate will be cancelled in April, which is expected to boost terminal demand [5] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - This week, the weekly production of silicone decreased, and there are plans for further production cuts in the future to support prices. However, considering the off - season demand and medium - to - high inventory, the price - support logic is difficult to work. The export tax rebate for silicone will be cancelled after April 1, and the pre - emptive export may bring some consumption increments [4] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers stock up on industrial silicon reasonably. They are more active in purchasing at low prices and more wait - and - see at other times. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [4]

Report Information - Report Title: "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] - Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Date: January 18, 2026 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of ribbed bars and hot-rolled coils are facing resistance from previous highs, and chasing the rise should wait until the prices break through [3][5] 3. Summary Based on Directory Macro and Fundamental Analysis - **Macro Environment**: Domestic macro environment is generally positive. The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti-involution", and an article in Qiushi Journal aimed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations [5][8] - **Black Industry Chain**: Coking coal supply is facing tightening disturbances, and coal and coke prices are strong. Iron ore prices are fluctuating at high levels due to the expected resumption of hot metal production and steel mills' winter storage replenishment. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but costs support the rebound of the futures price. Steel mills' profits continue to be compressed [5] - **Upside Drivers**: The upward breakthrough of black commodities depends on cost-push factors, such as policy constraints on coal supply contraction or sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply end. Relying on steel demand alone cannot form a smooth positive feedback market [5] - **Downside Drivers**: After the resumption of production, the accumulation of steel contradictions may trigger a negative feedback in the industrial chain. The release of high inventory liquidity of iron ore may lead to the decline of the spot price leading the futures price [5] Ribbed Bar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of ribbed bars show a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, suitable for reverse arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai ribbed bar spot price was 3300 (+10) yuan/ton, the 05 contract price was 3163 (+19) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was 137 (-9) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -49 (+3) yuan/ton [14][18] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Traditional off - season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is at a healthy level. Long - and short - process supply and inventory data show different trends [24][26] - **Production Profit**: With the expected resumption of steel mills' production and inventory replenishment, the on - screen profit of ribbed bars is shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 165 (+10) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 137 (+34) yuan/ton, and the East China ribbed bar valley - electricity profit was 197 (-15) yuan/ton [28][31] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: Similar to ribbed bars, the basis and spread of hot - rolled coils also show a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, suitable for reverse arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, the 05 contract futures price was 3315 (+21) yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis was -15 (+9) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -21 (+3) yuan/ton [33][37] - **Demand**: Demand is flat during the traditional off - season. However, exports remain at a high level through price - for - volume strategy [38][39] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively high, and production cuts are needed to reduce inventory. Production is maintained at a low level [46][47] - **Production Profit**: With the expected resumption of steel mills' production and inventory replenishment, the on - screen profit of hot - rolled coils is shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 2 (+30) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 139 (+36) yuan/ton [49][52] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of ribbed bars, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates, including differences between cities such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing, and Guangzhou [59][60][62][63][65] Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates [66][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to decline, but there is still support from the macro - level. As the enthusiasm for chasing commodity prices fades and profit - taking accelerates, the iron ore price has fallen from its high. However, the macro - level expectations and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may provide some support, and investors should be wary of upward price drivers that deviate from fundamentals [3][5] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas overall iron ore shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments have declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, showing a moderately weak performance. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China have been continuously falling recently [5] - The four major mainstream mines' shipments at the beginning of the year are moderately strong. For example, Vale's global shipments have increased by 19.0% year - to - date [4] - After months, Ukraine has resumed overseas shipments. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has rebounded, driving the overall operation of domestic mines to improve [20][28] 3.2 Demand - The blast furnace operation rate has decreased month - on - month but remains relatively high compared to the same period last year. The pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from downstream industries may support the molten iron production to some extent [5][31] - The substitution effect of scrap steel is limited. The price of iron ore has only a limited decline, and the scrap - iron price difference has rebounded slightly from a low level, but the overall level is still around zero [32] 3.3 Macro - level - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re - loan and re - discount rates, reigniting the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, there is still some support for the valuation of domestic risk assets [5] 3.4 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 812.00 yuan/ton. The position is 648,900 lots, an increase of 9,000 lots week - on - week. The average daily trading volume is 266,200 lots, a decrease of 75,100 lots week - on - week [7] 3.5 Spot Price Performance - The price of medium - grade iron ore remains relatively firm with a small decline. For example, the price of PB powder (61.5%) has decreased by 7 yuan/ton week - on - week [11] 3.6 Inventory - There is an obvious differentiation between port inventory and steel mill raw material inventory. Structurally, the powder ore inventory is significantly high [36][38] 3.7 Downstream Profit - The decline in raw material futures prices has helped to repair the on - paper profit. For example, the spot profit of hot - rolled coils and the on - paper profit of screw steel and coil steel have shown certain changes [40] 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The upward momentum of imported medium - grade powder ore has weakened, and the price difference between domestic iron ore concentrate and PB powder has rebounded from a low level [42] 3.9 Futures Month - to - Month Spread - During the recent price decline, the price of the near - month main contract has fallen more, and the 5 - 9 spread has continued to narrow compared to last year [44] 3.10 Basis Performance - With the decline in futures prices, the basis has strengthened slightly month - on - month [45]

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：基本面短期维持，关注供应节奏 | 利 | 润 | | 存 库 | | | 需 求 | | | | 供 应 | | 基本面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货利润 （周） | 盘面利润 | 仓单数量 | 样本企业库存（周） | 钢厂库存可用天数（12月） | 表需 | 日均铁水产量 | 高炉产能利用率（周） | 出口数量 | 进口数量 | 周产量 | | 条 目 | | | （周） | （张） | | | （11月） | （周） | | （11月） | （11月） | （周） | | | | -74 . | 175 . | 10427 | 6 . | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (1.12 - 1.18), the spot market for live pigs showed a strong - running trend, with prices of 20KG piglets in Henan at 23.2 yuan/kg, live pigs in Henan at 13.18 yuan/kg, and 50KG binary sows nationwide at 1559 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to the non -放量 of group enterprises and strong reluctance to sell among northern and southern retail farmers. The demand side saw stable slaughter volume despite losses during the peak slaughter season. The average national slaughter weight was 124.58KG, a 0.16% increase from last week. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the LH2603 contract closing at 11980 yuan/ton, and the basis at 1080 yuan/ton [1]. - Next week (1.19 - 1.25), the spot price of live pigs will fluctuate and adjust. Since late December, the enthusiasm for slaughter among enterprises and the social side has been insufficient, and secondary fattening has re - entered the market, starting social inventory accumulation. However, the downstream white - strip market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the slaughter end is in the red. From the supply perspective, standard pig supply will continue to increase until April 2026, but due to strong market expectations and multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, the inventory supply pressure has not been effectively released. From the demand perspective, the late Spring Festival and strong pre - holiday peak - season expectations have led to pre - emptive speculative demand in January. Overall, inventory accumulation continues in mid - and early January, and the weight - reduction plan is postponed, indicating that the social side has not relieved the pressure, and a stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is awaited [2]. - In the futures market, the price of the LH2603 contract closed at 11980 yuan/ton on January 16. In mid - and early January, the enterprise slaughter progress was slow, the weight increased, secondary fattening entered the market, and inventory accumulation restarted. The downstream losses during the peak season significantly inhibited the increase in slaughter volume. The weight - reduction plan before the Spring Festival has not been implemented, and the pressure is postponed. The stage of simultaneous increase in supply and demand is approaching. Wait for the spot market on the Laba Festival for confirmation. If the weight reduction at the end of the month fails to meet expectations, pay attention to the trading of post - holiday off - season expectations and set stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2603 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week's basis was 1080 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.58KG (last week: 124.38KG). In November, pork production was 546 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease; pork imports were 6.05 million tons, a 14.16% month - on - month decrease [10]. 3.3 Demand No specific demand - related summary content other than the description in the market outlook section.

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 1 月 18 日 碳酸锂：基本面偏强叠加现货采买意愿升温， 短期下方空间有限 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 刘鸿儒 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 liuhongru028781@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：先涨后跌，波动放大 本周碳酸锂期货合约先涨后跌。2605 合约收于 146200 元/吨，周环比上涨 2780 元/吨，2607 合约收 于 146940 元/吨，周环比上涨 2800 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 18000 元/吨至 158000 元/吨。SMM 期现基差 （2605 合约）上涨 15220 元/吨至+11800 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-1390 元/吨，周环比走强 120 元 /吨。2605-2607 合约价差-740 元/吨，环比走弱 20 元/吨。 供需基本面：淡季需求偏强带动行业去库，海外矿山存复产预期 政策：工信部等 6 部门联合发布《新能源汽车废旧动力电池回收和综合利用管理暂行办法》，对新能源 汽车动力电池生产与编码、废旧动力电池回收和综合利用、 ...