Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The market is fluctuating weakly, implied volatility is rising. Consider timing to buy put options for protection [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Market Trading Overview - The total daily average trading volume of all options is 13.5785 million lots, with a total open interest of 10.3924 million lots and a total turnover of 12.963624 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Option Volatility - The ATM - IV, IV weekly change, 20HV, HV weekly change, Skew, Skew weekly change, VIX, and VIX change of various options are presented in Table 2. For example, the ATM - IV of SSE 50 Index Option is 17.54%, with an IV weekly change of 2.29% [3]. 3.3 Option Liquidity - There are multiple charts showing the changes in total trading volume, total open interest, total turnover, total trading market value, and total open - interest market value of financial options, as well as the trading volume and open - interest proportions of each option variety [4][6][7][8]. 3.4 Option Volatility Level - Last week, there was a divergence between at - the - money implied volatility and historical volatility for various options. The current at - the - money implied volatility and the correlation coefficient between the underlying asset and at - the - money implied volatility of each option are provided. For instance, for SSE 50 Index Option, the current at - the - money implied volatility is 17.54%, and the correlation coefficient is - 79.60% [9]. 3.5 Option Market Bull - Bear Sentiment - The Put - Call - Ratio (PCR) indicator of options can reflect market bull - bear sentiment. There are multiple charts showing the PCR trends and daily环比 incremental percentages of various options [35][36]. 3.6 Market Support and Resistance Level Information - The key support and resistance levels of various option underlying assets are provided. For example, the key support level of SSE 50 Index is 3000, and the resistance level is 3000; the key support level of CSI 1000 Index is 7300, and the resistance level is 7500 [50].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated October 17, 2025, covering various metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver's spot contradictions are easing, leading to a price increase followed by a decline. Copper's spot premium supports its price, zinc shows internal and external differentiation, and lead's overseas inventory reduction limits price drops. Tin's price is influenced by macro factors, and aluminum has upward potential. Alumina shows a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices are oscillating at a low level due to bearish macro sentiment, and stainless steel prices are pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with cost providing a downside limit [2]. Summary by Metal Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512, Gold T+D, Comex Gold 2512, and London Gold Spot all increased, with night - time prices also rising. Trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Comex Gold 2512 increased, while Shanghai Gold 2512's open interest decreased, and Comex Gold 2512's increased. - **ETF and Inventory**: SPDR Gold ETF's open interest increased, and inventories of Shanghai Gold and Comex Gold changed, with Shanghai Gold's inventory rising and Comex Gold's falling. - **Trend Strength**: Gold's trend strength is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512, Silver T+D, Comex Silver 2512, and London Silver Spot rose, with night - time prices also increasing. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2512 increased, and its open interest remained unchanged. - **ETF and Inventory**: SLV Silver ETF's open interest remained unchanged, and inventories of Shanghai Silver and Comex Silver decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Silver's trend strength is 1, suggesting a moderately bullish view [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Copper 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased, and its open interest increased. - **Inventory and Premium**: Shanghai Copper's inventory decreased, and LME Copper's inventory also declined. The LME Copper premium decreased significantly. - **Trend Strength**: Copper's trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and LME Zinc 3M electronic disk decreased slightly. The trading volumes of both decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai Zinc decreased while that of LME Zinc increased. - **Premium and Inventory**: Shanghai 0 zinc's premium changed, and LME CASH - 3M premium increased. Shanghai Zinc's inventory increased, and LME Zinc's inventory decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc's trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Lead 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volumes of both decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai Lead decreased while that of LME Lead increased. - **Premium and Inventory**: Shanghai 1 lead's premium decreased, and LME CASH - 3M premium decreased. LME Lead's inventory decreased. - **Trend Strength**: Lead's trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased slightly, while the LME Tin 3M electronic disk price increased. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased, and its open interest decreased. - **Inventory and Premium**: Shanghai Tin's inventory decreased, and the LME Tin premium changed slightly. - **Trend Strength**: Tin's trend strength is 0, suggesting a neutral view [17]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and aluminum alloy main contract showed different trends. Trading volumes and open interests also changed accordingly. - **Inventory and Premium**: LME Aluminum's注销仓单占比 and various premiums changed. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating neutral outlooks [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract changed. The trading volumes of both showed different trends. - **Industry - related Data**: Key prices and spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industries changed. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, suggesting neutral views [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily outlooks and analysis for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has a specific trend judgment, such as gold continuing to reach new highs, silver experiencing a pull - back after a spike, and many commodities showing wide - range oscillations [2][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to continue reaching new highs, with positive price trends driven by factors like geopolitical events and market sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][8]. - **Silver**: After the spot contradiction eases, the price is expected to pull back after a spike, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][6][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot premiums support prices. Despite a slight decline in the futures price, the overall price is expected to be stable. The trend intensity is 0 [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: There is an internal - external differentiation. The trend intensity is 0 [2][13]. - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventories limits price declines. The trend intensity is 0 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend intensity is 0 [2][19][21]. - **Aluminum**: It has upward potential. Alumina shows a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [2][22][24]. - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment turns bearish, and nickel prices oscillate at a low level. Stainless steel is pressured by both macro and real - world factors, with its downward movement limited by cost. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [2][25][27]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Due to supply shortage expectations, prices have risen significantly [2][5]. - **Propylene**: Cost supports a rebound, but supply - demand pressure remains [2][5]. - **PVC**: The trend is weak [2][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: It oscillates in a narrow range, and the short - term weakness persists. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil [2][5]. - **PTA and p - Xylene**: Both are expected to be weak in the medium term. MEG is recommended for a 1 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage [2][5][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Tax increases support B50, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support [2][5]. - **Soybean Oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [2][5]. - **Corn**: It has rebounded [2][5]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased year - on - year [2][5]. - **Cotton**: It has a slight rebound [2][5]. - **Eggs**: They oscillate weakly [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Supply is postponed, and the price center continues to decline [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [2][5]. Other Commodities - **Iron Ore**: It oscillates in a wide range, with the trend intensity of 0 [2][36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Both oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][39][40]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Cost provides bottom - support, and they oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][44][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations fluctuate, and they oscillate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [2][49][51]. - **Logs**: They oscillate repeatedly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][52][56]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory reduction accelerates, and the number of warrants continues to decrease, resulting in a strong - side oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [2][28][30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It maintains a range - bound oscillation pattern, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][31][34]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][32][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, and agricultural product futures. It combines macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis to predict the price trends, support and resistance levels of different futures contracts on October 17, 2025, and also gives the market performance on October 16, 2025. Additionally, it presents relevant macro - news and commodity - related information that may impact the futures markets [2][7][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 17, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate. For example, IF2512 has resistance at 4609 and 4632 points, and support at 4549 and 4498 points. In October 2025, it is likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation [2][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2512 and thirty - year TL2512 are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation on October 17. T2512 has resistance at 108.28 and 108.32 yuan, and support at 107.95 and 107.83 yuan; TL2512 has resistance at 115.4 and 115.9 yuan, and support at 114.3 and 113.8 yuan [2][35][39]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2512) and silver (AG2512) futures are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation on October 17 and may reach new highs. In October 2025, they are also expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and break through resistance levels [41][43][51]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2512) is likely to have a wide - range oscillation on October 17; aluminum (AL2512) and polycrystalline silicon (PS2511) are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation; alumina (AO2601) is likely to have a strong - biased oscillation and break through resistance levels; while glass, soda ash, and fuel oil are likely to have a weak - biased oscillation [3][54][61]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: PTA, methanol, and soybean meal are likely to have a weak - biased oscillation on October 17; PVC and palm oil are likely to have a strong - biased oscillation [6][100][106]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference, responding to multiple hot issues such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, rare - earth export control, and the intervention of the Dutch authorities in Chinese enterprises. It also plans to introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the relationship between China's rare - earth export control and the extension of tariff exemptions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated China's stance [7]. - The US President Trump had a phone call with the Russian President Putin, discussing the Ukraine conflict and future trade issues between the US and Russia [8]. - The US Treasury Department announced that the deficit in fiscal year 2025 was $1.78 trillion, a 2% decrease from fiscal year 2024. Net customs revenue reached $195 billion [8]. - Fed officials have different views on the pace of interest - rate cuts [8]. Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees and position thresholds of some options contracts from November 10 [9]. - On October 16, international precious - metal futures generally rose, while crude - oil futures fell. Base metals in London showed a mixed performance [9][10]. - The Russian President Putin said that Russia's oil production in 2025 is expected to be 510 million tons, a 1% decrease from last year. Global daily oil demand is expected to reach 104.5 million barrels, an increase of more than 1 million barrels from last year [10]. - The CEO of Saudi Aramco warned of a future supply shortage in the global oil industry and called for increased investment in exploration and production [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [2] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views - Nickel: With the macro - sentiment turning bearish, nickel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Pressured by both macro and real - world factors, the downside is limited by cost [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Accelerated inventory depletion and continuous reduction of warehouse receipts lead to a bullish oscillation [2][7] - Industrial Silicon: In a range - bound oscillation pattern [2][10] - Polysilicon: Recommended to buy on dips [2][11] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 121,270 yuan, with a decrease of 3,210 yuan compared to T - 5; the stainless - steel main contract's closing price is 12,615 yuan, down 245 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 67,146, a decrease of 63,718 compared to T - 5; the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume is 162,150, down 14,940 from T - 5 [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry workgroups took over a nickel mine area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and new regulations on mine RKAB approval were issued. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on key software [4][5][6] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract is 74,940 yuan, up 1,600 yuan compared to T - 5; the 2601 contract's closing price is 75,080 yuan, up 1,640 yuan from T - 5. The warehouse receipt volume is 30,456 hands, a decrease of 11,923 compared to T - 5 [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 27 yuan/ton. This week's lithium carbonate production increased by 431 tons, and the industry inventory decreased by 2143 tons. Hainan Mining's Mali Buguoni lithium mine project shipped 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract is 8,605 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan compared to T - 5; the PS2511 contract's closing price is 52,575 yuan/ton, up 1,810 yuan from T - 5. Industrial silicon's social inventory is 56.2 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared to T - 5; polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock price is 52,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from T - 5 [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells for 3 years [11][13]

2025年10月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：提税支持B50，关注棕油下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：资金技术面交易，低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：有所反弹 | 6 | | 白糖：巴西中南部食糖产量同比增加 | 7 | | 棉花：小幅反弹 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：供应后置，中枢继续下移 | 11 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：提税支持 B50，关注棕油下方支撑 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,312 | -0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Reverse spread for 1-5 months [1] Core Viewpoints - PX has a weak unilateral trend, and it is recommended to go long on PXN. The only potential positive factor may come from the aromatics segment. With the improvement of MX blending demand, the PX-MX spread has significantly compressed, and its impact on PX valuation should be monitored. There is still a supply-demand gap for PX [9]. - Hold the 1-5 reverse spread for PTA. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support for the polyester industry chain is weak, the spot market supply in East China is still sufficient, the new device is about to be put into production, and attention should be paid to filament production cuts and the impact of additional fees on textile and clothing export demand [9]. - MEG has a weak unilateral trend in the context of oversupply. Although there may be potential positives from a possible decline in port arrivals, the overall trend remains weak [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - Crude oil: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and the possibility of renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract dropped $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a -1.39% decline; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the December contract fell $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a -1.37% decline. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2512 contract rose 0.7 to 445.6 yuan per barrel, but dropped 8.5 to 437.1 yuan per barrel in after-hours trading [4]. - PX: The price of naphtha was weak at the end of the session. The current estimated price of November MOPJ is $542 per ton CFR. Affected by the contract rollover, today's PX price closed lower. One lot of December Asian spot was traded at $786. At the end of the session, the physical December PX was negotiated at $786/805, with a sell-off at $790 in January, and a buy order at +1.5 for the December/January rollover. Today's PX valuation is $786 per ton, down $1 from yesterday. Market participants remain cautious about PX spot prices and demand due to the sluggish downstream PTA activity [4]. - PTA: In mainland China, the 3.6 million-ton capacity of Yisheng New Materials has reached full load, and the capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 million tons and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million tons have been increased. As of Thursday, the PTA load is at 76.7%. According to the calculation of PTA daily production/(domestic PTA capacity/365), the current PTA operating rate is around 82.6% [6]. - MEG: As of October 16, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 77.16% (a 2.08% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 81.89% (a 3.06% increase from the previous period) [6]. - Polyester: This week, the operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has remained basically stable. As of now, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is around 75%. This week, the changes in polyester device operations are mainly load adjustments, with a slight decrease in polyester filament and a moderate increase in bottle chips. Overall, the polyester load has fluctuated slightly. As of Thursday, the preliminary estimate of the polyester load in mainland China is around 91.4%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are differentiated today, with an average sales rate of around 60% as of 3:45 pm. The sales of some factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 120%, 55%, 100%, etc. The sales of direct-spun polyester staple fiber have improved today, with an average sales rate of 79% as of 3:00 pm, and the sales of some factories are 120%, 60%, etc. [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG is -1, indicating a weak outlook [8] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC yesterday were 6376, 4456, 4089, 6092, and 445.9 respectively, with changes of 64, 34, 32, 42, and -0.1, and percentage changes of 1.01%, 0.77%, 0.79%, 0.69%, and -0.02% [2]. - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were $786.17 per ton, 4360 yuan per ton, 4126 yuan per ton, $545.5 per ton, and $61.78 per barrel respectively, with changes of -0.5, 35, 4, -3.5, and -0.83 [2]. - Spot Processing Fees: The prices of PX-naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil spread yesterday were 221.42, 203.52, 277.04, 107.66, and -4.34 respectively, with changes of -1.83, 38.34, -20.42, -8.47, and 0 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the trends of various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [2][11]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Mid - term trend is weak. Aromatic hydrocarbon valuation cost support is weak, but there may be a positive impact from the improvement of MX blending demand. Suggest to focus on long PXN [11]. - **PTA**: Hold 1 - 5 reverse spreads. The unilateral trend is weak. Cost support is weak, supply is sufficient, and new devices are about to be put into production. Pay attention to polyester filament production cuts and the impact of additional shipping fees on textile exports [11]. - **MEG**: The supply is in surplus, and the unilateral trend is weak. Although there may be potential positive factors from port arrivals, the overall supply is still sufficient [12]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move in a range. The trend strength is neutral [13][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, there is a rebound, but the medium - term trend is under pressure. The rebound is due to cost support and event - driven factors, while the fundamental pressure remains large [17][19]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market has a flat shipment situation. The trend is weak, with a decline in production, a decrease in factory and social inventories, and a weakening of cost support from crude oil [20][21][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE trend is weak. Affected by factors such as increased supply, geopolitical situation, and trade issues, the market inventory pressure is large, and the cost support from crude oil is limited [34][35]. 3.6 PP - The PP trend remains weak. Trade wars, falling oil prices, and high supply suppress the market price, and the short - term situation is difficult to reverse fundamentally [37][38]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The rebound height of caustic soda is limited. Although the spot pressure in Shandong is temporarily relieved, the alumina production reduction expectation suppresses the valuation height [42]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move in a range. The price is affected by factors such as futures decline, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the downstream purchases at low prices. The futures market has a slight improvement in production and sales [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - The methanol market is expected to move in a range. The port market price is strong due to inventory reduction, while the inland market is weak [54][57]. 3.11 Urea - In the short term, it moves in a range, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The enterprise inventory is rising, the spot trading is weak, and the export increment may not be able to make up for the weak domestic demand [59][61]. 3.12 Styrene - Stop loss on short positions. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound. The expected production reduction of pure benzene in October turns the inventory accumulation expectation into a de - stocking expectation [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with supply at a high level and downstream demand stable [64]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Due to the expectation of supply shortage, the price has risen significantly. - **Propylene**: There is a rebound supported by cost, but the supply - demand pressure still exists [66]. 3.15 PVC - The PVC trend is weak. The market inventory pressure is large, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export growth may slow down [73]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It moves in a narrow range, and the short - term weakness persists. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [76]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in a range - bound market, affected by factors such as freight rates, shipping capacity, and exchange rates [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the trading situation of soybeans and soybean meal futures. It indicates that soybean meal is in a low - level oscillation with capital and technical - based trading, while soybeans are in an oscillation state. The prices of related futures and spot products are presented, along with relevant macro and industry news [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4018 yuan/ton during the day session, up 30 yuan (+0.75%), and 4029 yuan/ton at night, up 9 yuan (+0.22%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2907 yuan/ton during the day session, down 7 yuan (-0.24%), and 2891 yuan/ton at night, down 24 yuan (-0.82%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1011.75 cents/bushel, up 4.75 cents (+0.47%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 277.3 dollars/short ton, up 1.4 dollars (+0.51%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 2960 - 2980 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 2910 yuan/ton, remaining flat; in South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, remaining flat or up 10 yuan [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 11.52 million tons/day, and the inventory was 104.67 million tons/week, compared with 11 million tons/day and 115.28 million tons/week in the previous period [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to strong domestic demand, offsetting concerns about Sino - US trade tensions. Due to the government shutdown and the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese leaders at the end of the month, key crop data has not been released, and trading remains cautious. China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums, which may prompt China to use national reserves to meet short - term demand. The US Agriculture Secretary said the US can supply soybeans to South American countries for crushing, but no details were provided [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the reporting day [3].

2025年10月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 17 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 【宏观及行业新闻】 财联社 10 月 15 日电，国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 9 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降 2.3%， 降幅比上月收窄 0.6 个百分点，环比继续持平。（来自财联社 APP） 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 2 | | | | 昨日 ...