Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Strong Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Domestic), Corn [1] - **Buy (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Neutral**: Not specified Core Views - The prices of domestic agricultural products show various trends, with factors such as policy, supply - demand, weather, and imports influencing them. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillations, potential rises, and declines [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans are in an oscillating trend after a recent price decline. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. Imported soybeans have abundant supply from May to July due to large - scale arrivals from Brazil. Mid - term prices of both domestic and US soybeans are expected to be affected by weather, with a predicted oscillating and bullish trend [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices in most domestic regions are falling, with weakening spot basis and increasing inventory. Supply has become more abundant since May, and the market lacks a driver for continuous price increases [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The domestic futures market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. Both soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain an interval - oscillating trend, affected by factors such as supply and overseas production [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products generally rose today, with rapeseed meal outperforming rapeseed oil. Mid - term policies may bring import bottlenecks, which will relieve supply pressure. The demand for rapeseed meal is promising, and a bullish strategy is recommended [6] Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable, while Shandong's purchase prices are weakening. North port inventories are below 4 million tons, and south port inventories are increasing. The market is expected to be oscillating and bearish in the next stage [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market is weakly oscillating, and spot prices are slightly rebounding. Long - term supply is expected to recover, and downward pressure on spot prices may affect the futures market [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices are falling with increased positions, while spot prices are rebounding in many areas. After the Dragon Boat Festival, supply pressure may lead to further price drops, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the futures market [9]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 棉花 | ななな | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所回落，国产棉现货交投一般、主流基差坚挺；纯棉纱市场成交走谈，纺企库存出现累积但仍不高。国内棉花进口 延续偏低的情况, 2025年4月进口6万吨,同比降28万吨,环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万吨,同比降71%;2024/25 年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。目前看对于下游的订单好 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities has slightly increased, with a significant decline in the black sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors in cross - section are precious metals and soft commodities, while the relatively weak one is the black sector [3]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different commodities have different factor performance and comprehensive signals. For example, methanol's comprehensive signal is long this week, while glass, iron ore, and lead's comprehensive signals are neutral [5][8][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Overview - The momentum of the black sector continues to decline. Gold's time - series momentum stabilizes, and the trading volume of Shanghai Gold marginally rebounds. The non - ferrous sector shows some divergence in trading volume, with copper being relatively strong and zinc relatively weak. In the energy and chemical sector, the cross - sectional momentum of chemicals is still higher than that of energy products. In the agricultural products sector, the trading volume of oilseeds and meals remains low, and soft commodities are relatively strong in the term structure [3]. Methanol - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.38%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.52%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long [5]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic capacity utilization rate of methanol has decreased, but imports have increased. The supply - side long - strength has weakened. The operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants has increased, and the demand - side has changed from short to neutral. The inventory in inland and ports is lower year - on - year, and the inventory - side is long. The import profit of methanol and the regional price difference factor between Inner Mongolia and Shandong have released long signals, and the price - difference side is neutral to long [5]. Float Glass - Strategy net worth: Last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.10%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.07%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [8]. - Fundamental factors: The operating rate of float glass enterprises has increased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - side remains neutral. The number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities has increased, and the demand - side is neutral to long. The weekly enterprise inventory of Chinese float glass has changed from inventory accumulation to slight inventory reduction, and the inventory - side has changed from short to neutral. The profit of float glass made from pipeline gas and steam coal has slightly declined, and the profit - side remains neutral. The main - continuous basis - Wuhan Changli has released a short signal, but the contribution of this factor is low, and the price - difference side is neutral [8]. Iron Ore - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.13%, the inventory factor remained unchanged, the price - difference factor weakened by 0.07%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal has changed to neutral [10]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volume of iron ore at Rizhao Port has increased compared with last week, and the supply - side signal has changed to long. The output of WSA blast - furnace pig iron in China this month has continued to decline compared with last month, and the demand - side signal remains short. The inventory of iron ore concentrates in 45 ports has declined, and the inventory - side remains neutral. The price of Atlas iron powder for sale at Rizhao Port has continued to rise, and the price - difference side signal remains neutral [10]. Lead - Strategy net worth: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor remained unchanged, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.03%, the price - difference factor strengthened by 0.01%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.02%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [10]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee of SMM has continued to decline, and the supply - side signal remains short. The export volume of Chinese lead alloys in May has continued to decrease compared with April, and the demand - side signal remains neutral. The lead inventory in the London Metal Exchange has continued to rise, and the inventory - side has changed to long. The profit of SMM recycled lead has continued to rise, and the price - difference side signal has changed to neutral [10].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年05月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★★☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★★☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续增仓下行。淡季来临螺纹表需环比下滑，产量有所上升，库存继续下降，节奏有所放缓。热卷供需均有所回落, 库存继续下降，节奏有所放缓。铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，供应压力依然较大。负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下 游行业看，内需整体依然偏弱，制造业投资增速逐步放缓，地产销售低位排回，复苏投资 ...

2025/5/27 14:12 3c5c0befe82311392231a64b57b3b7a.png (2894×5451) | 有色金属周度观点 | | | --- | --- | | 国 投期货 2025/5/27 | 研究院有色金属团队 | | 序号 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | 品种 | | 美元易成短线描引。1）情绪：内外铜价延续5月以来交投区间，短线尝试突破常受美元指数强弱引导。市场关注美国关税谈判进展，该国对东盟光 | | | 伏加税将在6月落地。联储官员仍以强调通胀风险为主，降息预期被推迟。根迪下调美国评级、特朗普麻税主张众议院通过后，市场高度关注美国 | | | 财赤风险对美债的影响。指标面，美国5月制造业PMI走高到三个月新高，欧洲该项仍在萎缩区间。关税风险下，欧美服务业及综合PMI表现受累 | | | 极大。本周美国经济指标相当密集。2）国内供需:交割换月后,沪粤开水有所缩窄,分别在185、220元。市场关注国内消费待续性,SMM社库 1 在14万吨下方。粗算表观与终端，前四月国内铜实际消费增速超过5%。供应端，TC仍紧，硫酸价格支持下，5月国内铜产出仍有环增碳率，精废 | 铜 | | ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月27日 (原油) 受美国阵亡将士纪念日假期影响，隔夜国际油价提前收盘、交易清淡。此前我们谈到原油市场短期 支撑与中期压力并存，目前这一震荡格局仍未打破。一方面，5月31日0PEC+自愿减产8国会议或决 定在7月延续41.1万桶/天的增产速度，即便考虑到夏季石油消费旺季的需求增量亦难改累摩预期； 另一方面,第5轮美伊核会谈仍未达成协议,特朗普也威胁对俄罗斯加大制裁,而近两周俄罗斯原油 发运再现回落，制裁油供应风险依然存在。油价或仍处低位震荡格局，关注2507期权双向卖出虚值 期权机会。 【责金属】 【铜】 隔夜伦铜休市,沪铜阳线震荡,沪铜加权再测7.8万。特朗普关税威胁加码后,欧盟表示加快谈判速 度,双方关键时点回到7月9日。关注国内现货报价与供求变动,SMM铜社库基本持平在13.97万吨。 2507合约高位空单持有。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。昨日铝锭铝棒社库较周一分别下降2.3万吨和0.1万吨，华东现货升水90元。需求面 临李节性转淡和贸易摩擦的考验,不过库存顺畅去库至低位,强现实局面维持,沪铝继续测试前期 缺口20300元关键 ...

| 11/12 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月26日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | ななな | F3063857 Z0016599 | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价总体震荡，布伦特07合约周度小幅下跌0.46%，SC07合约跌0.75%。上周五特朗普威,励6月1日起对欧盟 征收50%关税,此举将再次引发欧盟油品需求承压预期,同时欧洲对美出口汽油若未得豁免将在北美进入驾驶旺季 后拉动美国汽油裂解。关于6月1日OPEC+8国会议延续7月41.1万桶/天快速增产的担忧同样令市场承压，但周五美伊 第五轮核谈未达成协议,特朗普亦表示或因俄乌军事冲突持续而对俄罗斯加大制裁。制裁油供应风险仍对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond futures: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending May 23, index futures declined slightly, with IH2506 and IF2506 down 0.01%, IC2506 down 0.86%, and IM2506 down 1.29%. The market showed strong risk - aversion sentiment, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the entire A - share market and relatively large declines in small - cap broad - based indices [1]. - From the perspective of high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, the inflation indicator scored 6 points, the liquidity indicator 2 points, the valuation indicator 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator 7 points. For bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 8 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points. In terms of the term structure, the basis discounts of each contract continued to be at historical lows [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.45% last week, mainly from holding long positions in T on Monday and Tuesday. In the long - term, although industrial and production data slightly exceeded expectations, investment and real estate remained weak, with the decline of IC and IM exceeding that of IF. In the short - term, the impact of the exchange rate decreased slightly, the financing scale declined, and market speculation decreased. The position volume indicated an adjustment in risk preference, with IC and IM dropping below IF and IH, and IM having a larger decline. The comprehensive signal was below the neutral level. For bond futures, last week, the position volume factor showed some marginal improvement due to the stock - bond rotation but then gradually declined as institutions took profits. Although the short - term capital market was relatively loose, the comprehensive signal showed a neutral oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - frequency Factor Scores - **Economic Momentum**: Among various indicators, the blast furnace开工率 (163 - company national average) and the开工率 of PTA in China both decreased by 2.75%. The开工率 of the Shandong local refinery's atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit increased by 0.36%. The开工率 of automobile all - steel tires decreased by 0.52%, and the开工率 of downstream looms for polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 13.41%. The index futures scored 6 points, and the bond futures scored 0 points [2]. - **Inflation Indicators**: Most inflation - related indicators showed price declines, such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 index down 0.05%, the coking coal index down 0.09%, etc. Only the CIF price of liquefied natural gas in China increased by 1.58%. The index futures scored 6 points, and the bond futures scored 7 points [3]. - **Liquidity**: DR007 and DR001 decreased by 3.14% and 4.05% respectively, while GC001 and GC007 increased by 6.98% and 4.27% respectively. The index futures scored 2 points [4]. - **Index Valuation**: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM), price - to - sales ratio (TTM), and other valuation indicators all decreased slightly. The index futures scored 9 points [5]. - **Market Sentiment - Index Futures**: The margin trading balance decreased by 0.31%, and the short - selling balance increased by 3.50%. The index futures scored 7 points [6]. - **Market Sentiment - Bond Futures**: The 10 - year yield of China Development Bank bonds decreased by 0.39%, and the VIX index increased by 29.29%. The bond futures scored 8 points [7]. 3.2 Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital market high - frequency financial data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and low - frequency macro - economic data. The position volume is synthesized based on institutional long and short positions [17]. - The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by the signals of three independent models (0 - 1). Contracts with the top two comprehensive signal strengths greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and those with the bottom two less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Position volume signals are shielded 7 days before contract expiration. An intraday decline of more than 1% is set as the stop - loss point, and funds are equally weighted. Signals in the same direction for two consecutive trading days are shielded [18][19]. 3.3 Last Week's Situation - From May 19 to May 23, the positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM were all 0, while the position of T was 1 on May 19 and 20 and 0 for the rest of the days, and the position of TF was 0 throughout the week [20]. 3.4 Recent Income Performance - The previous day's return was 0%, the return for the past week was 0.45%, the return for the past month was 0.78%, the return for the past three months was 1.45%, the return for the past six months was 5.26%, the return for the past year was 8.51%, and the return for the past three years was 23.99%. The maximum drawdown for the past week was 0%, for the past month was 0.05%, for the past three months was 0.07%, for the past six months was 0.52%, for the past year was 0.59%, and for the past three years was 3.27% [22]. 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into level, slope, and curvature. The signals are divided into three types: '1' (large spread may decrease), '0' (uncertain spread trend or oscillation), and '-1' (large spread may increase). The trend regression model is used to filter signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In actual operation, the 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted with a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 [23]. - For the TF and T main contracts from May 19 to May 23, the N - S model and trend regression model signals mostly showed '0', except that the N - S model signal was '1' on May 21 and 22 [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]

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