Tabl e_Title 2025 年 5 月 26 日 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250224 -20250228）-美国关税引发市场忧虑 风 险资产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20250303 -20250307）-关税政策不确定性仍存 风 险资产走势分化 大类资产运行周报（20250310 -20250314）-美国通胀预期降温 债市偏 弱运行 大类资产运行周报（20250317 -20250321）-美联储按兵不动 美股周度 企稳 大类资产运行周报（20250324 -20250328）-市场避险情绪升温 权益资 产回落 大类资产运行周报（20250331 -20250404）-市场避险情绪升温 权益资 产回落 大类资产运行周报（20250407 -20250411）-关税政策短期趋向缓和 美 股大幅反弹 大类资产运行周报（20250414 -20250418）-美联储按兵不动 美元指数 持续回落 大类资产运行周报（20250421 - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Logs: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (red stars, indicating a clear upward trend) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (white stars, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] Core Views - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, import and export, and consumption. Most commodities are recommended to wait and see in the short term, and some can try light - position operations after a callback [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined today, with weak downstream demand being the main limiting factor. Domestic cotton imports remained low in April 2025. The recent rise in Zhengzhou cotton was driven by the positive news of China - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. Cotton inventory decreased well from March to April, and if the negotiations continue to improve, there may be a tight - end - of - season inventory situation. It is recommended to wait and see or try the bullish spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated last week. In May, the rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased, which was conducive to sugarcane harvesting. Most international consulting companies expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil to remain high in the 25/26 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The import profit of sugar increased due to the continuous decline of US sugar, and the import volume was expected to increase. The market focused on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, and the import volume decreased in the first quarter, but the downward trend of US sugar limited the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price was weak. The spot price remained stable. The market shipment in Shandong was slow, and the demand for apples decreased due to the rising temperature and the listing of seasonal fruits. The market focused on the new - season production estimate. There were differences in the production estimate due to the impact of high - temperature and windy weather in the western producing areas. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU slightly rose, NR fluctuated, and BR continued to decline. The supply of natural rubber entered the increasing period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate decreased. The domestic tire operation rate decreased, and the inventory of tire finished products increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased, and the social inventory of butadiene rubber increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - The pulp price declined today. The port inventory decreased slightly, but it was still high year - on - year. The demand for pulp was weak, and the recent rise was mainly driven by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long lightly after a callback [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the spot price remained stable. The supply side saw an increase in the arrival volume in China last week. The demand entered the off - season, and the port inventory decreased, but the radiation pine continued to accumulate inventory. The supply of New Zealand logs was expected to remain low, but the domestic demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

| | 操作评级 | 2025年05月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ☆☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 错 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 工业等 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 沪铜震荡收阳,外盘休市。尽管特朗普对欧贸易言论紧张,但市场关注减税法案对美国财政赤字与债市的影 响,美元指数走疲。铜物流继续向美国特移,关注国内供求变动,SMM铜库存基本持平在13.97万吨。2507合约 高位空单持有。 【铝 ...

贵金属ETF收益回升 金融工程周报 基金市场回顾： 操作评级 中信五风格-周期★☆☆ 王锴 金融工程组 Z0016943 张婧婕 F03116832 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 权益市场风格 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 2025年5月26日 周度报告 截至2025/05/23当周，通联全A（沪深京）、中证综合债与南 华商品指数周度涨跌幅分别为-0.70%、0.02%、-0.50% 。 公募基金市场方面，近一周普通股票型策略表现较优，指数上涨 0.13%，具体来看，权益方面指增策略小幅回撤，中性策略产品 整体表现欠佳，债券方面纯债策略平均收益跑赢转债策略，商品 方面贵金属与豆粕ETF收涨，有色金属ETF微跌0.48%，能化 ETF收益转弱，净值下行2%。 中信五风格方面，上周五风格收益延续分化态势，周期与消费风 格小幅收涨，其余风格收跌。风格轮动图显示相对强弱层面金融 与成长走低，指标动量层面五风格均呈下降趋势，其中稳定与金 融降幅较大。公募基金池方面，近一周金融与成长风格基金超额 收益居前，从基金风格系数走势来看 ...

国投期货研究院 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月26日 (原油) 上周国际油价总体震荡，布伦特07合约小幅下跌0.46%，SC07合约跌0.75%。上周五特朗普威胁6月 1日起对欧盟征收50%关税,此举将再次引发欧盟油品需求承压预期,同时欧洲对美出口汽油若未得 豁免将在北美进入驾驶旺季后拉动美国汽油裂解。关于6月1日0PEC+8国会议延续7月41.1万桶/天快 速增产的担忧同样令市场承压,但周五美伊第五轮核谈未达成协议引发的伊朗供应担忧对市场构成 提振，原油市场震荡格局仍未打破。 【责金属】 周五贵金属上涨。近期贸易战以及地缘冲突各方均处于谈判阶段，特朗普威胁6月1日起对欧盟进口 商品征收50%的关税,但周末其再次变卦恢复此前设定的90天窗口期。全球不确定性前景和美元信 用风险下黄金长期依然看涨，短期消息纷扰情绪反复，金价在3000美元/盎司强支撑位置上方表现 抗跌，维持回调买入思路。 【铜】 上周五内外铜价短线上涨,尽管特朗普对欧贸易言论紧张,但市场关注减税法案对美国财政赤字与 债市的影响，美元指数走液。铜物流继续向美国转移，关注国内供求变动。2507合约 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of the steel and related industries is weak, with demand expectations being pessimistic and market sentiment being low. The market rhythm may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1]. - Different varieties have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and the impact of carbon element supply and iron - water production on the market needs to be observed for further negative feedback [2][3][5]. Summary by Variety Steel - Today's steel futures market declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline at a slower pace. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and inventory also continued to decline at a slower pace. Iron - water production continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level, with large supply pressure and repeated fermentation of off - season negative feedback expectations. Domestic demand in downstream industries is weak, with slowing manufacturing investment growth, low real - estate sales, and significant declines in recovery investment and new construction. The market is weak but may have fluctuations [1]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market declined today. On the supply side, global shipments increased seasonally with room for further improvement, while domestic arrivals decreased and port inventories continued to decline. On the demand side, terminal demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and iron - water production is gradually declining from a high level. Steel mills have no strong willingness to reduce production actively or replenish inventory. The short - term high iron - water production still supports real - time demand, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. It is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [2]. Coke - The coke price hit a new low this year. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. The first round of price cuts for coking was fully implemented, but coking daily production remained at a relatively high level this year due to remaining profits. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders made no purchases. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [3]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price declined with oscillations, hitting a new low this year. The production of coking coal mines remained at a high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut - down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, with continuously falling prices, and terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory pressure continued to accumulate rapidly. In the imported seaborne coal market, Indian terminal acceptance of Australian coal at high prices weakened, but the trading sector strongly supported prices due to cost. The price of Australian quasi - first - line coking coal decreased slightly week - on - week, and it remained significantly inverted compared with domestic coal prices. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal maintains a significant discount, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price declined significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, weekly production data increased slightly, and inventory decreased, with a slight improvement in the fundamentals. South32 Australian ore is expected to arrive at about 50,000 tons at the end of this month. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly, while silicomanganese supply increased slightly. Manganese ore inventory began to accumulate, and market expectations changed. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price declined with oscillations. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal was basically flat, and secondary demand remained high. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, market trading was average, and on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [7]

【棉花&棉纱】 | | | | Million | 国投期货 | 教商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月23日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今天郑棉维持霍悟震荡,国产棉现货交投一般，主流基盖坚挺;纯棉纱近日交投尚可,但没幸之下市场信心不足。国内棉花进 口延续偏低的情况，2025年4月进口6万吨，同比降28万吨，环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万吨,同比降71%; 2024/25年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。近期郑棉走 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean One: No clear rating [1] - Bean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean Oil: No clear rating [1] - Palm Oil: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Meal: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆★ [1] - Corn: No clear rating [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The soybean market is affected by factors such as policy, weather, and supply. The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors but has a bullish strategy. The corn market will fluctuate. The live pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market is bearish in the long - term [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Contents Soybeans - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate repeatedly, with local reserve soybean auctions resulting in no sales. The policy - driven trading volume is small. Imported soybeans face the pressure of large - scale arrivals from May to July, and weather will be a key factor in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has shrunk, with about 16% of the planting area affected as of May 20, compared to 17% the previous week and 6% last year. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal main contract continued to close higher. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant since May. There are many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and the market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3] Bean Oil and Palm Oil - The US House of Representatives has passed the 45Z amendment bill, which may increase the demand for domestic raw materials in North America, increase US soybean crushing, and reduce US soybean exports. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle overseas and faces the pressure of increased arrivals in China from May to June. The prices of bean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures contracts mainly fluctuated with small daily price changes. The sowing of Canadian rapeseed is advancing, and as of May 19, 58% of the rapeseed in Saskatchewan has been sown. The supply of oilseeds in China is expected to be abundant in the second quarter, and the strategy is still bullish [5] Corn - Corn futures rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom this week. The spot price of corn in Northeast China continued to decline slightly, and the supply in Shandong decreased. After the transfer of grain ownership, the market - circulating grain is still in the trading link. Starch enterprises have had long - term losses, with a recent decline in operating rates and a slight recovery in profits. The market will fluctuate in the next stage [6] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continued to hit new lows, and the spot price was under pressure due to the accelerated slaughter rate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs will recover, and the spot price is expected to decline, which may put downward pressure on the futures price [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs across the country generally declined, and the near - month June contract continued to hit new lows. In the short - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stop falling and stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period. In the medium - term, the industry's production capacity is expected to increase until the end of September. In the long - term, the egg price is bearish [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market for various chemicals shows different trends. Some are facing downward pressure due to factors such as weak demand, ample supply, and falling costs, while others are expected to have a certain degree of price support or fluctuate within a certain range [2][3][4] - The overall chemical market is affected by multiple factors including supply and demand, cost, and seasonal factors, and different products have different performance characteristics and future expectations [2][3][4] Summary by Chemical Products Methanol - The methanol futures price has been falling. Coal prices are at the bottom, reducing cost support. High domestic supply and increased imports lead to a weak fundamental situation, with expected inventory build - up [2] Urea - The urea futures price dropped. Industrial and agricultural demand shows different trends. Although daily production is high, it is in the domestic demand peak season. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Polyolefins - The polyolefin futures price declined. The market has inventory pressure, cost support is weakening, and the terminal demand is weak [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price decreased. Cost support is insufficient, and supply is expected to increase slightly in late May and early June [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, and there are plans for large - scale maintenance in June. Ethylene glycol's profit has improved, but there is pressure on near - month contracts after June. Short - fiber processing margins are slowly recovering, and bottle - chip is in the peak season with low processing margins [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is running weakly. Domestic demand is flat, exports may decline, and supply is under pressure. Caustic soda prices have fallen from high levels. Although inventory has decreased, demand has not improved significantly, and prices are expected to be under pressure [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are under pressure again due to weak supply - demand and falling costs. Inventory is high, and prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations. Soda ash prices are falling. Supply is expected to increase after maintenance, and demand is weakening, so prices will continue to be under pressure [9]

国内到岸价整体回落，5月上半月集中到岸导致华东阵容率继续走高,码头降价出货。进口成本支撑松动盈加烧 厂外放有所增加,炼厂气价整体下调。上周PDH开工率随装置降负仍有回落,但月末有装置开始重启,关注化工 需求回升的节奏。现货端承压延续,盘面震荡偏弱为主。 | 《》 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月23日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价走弱, SG07合约日内跌2.1%%。昨日有消息称OPEC+正在讨论6月1日是否继续以41.1万桶/天速度 快速增产,市场对原油供需宽松 ...