供应缩量带动价格上行 能源化工-MEG 宏源期货研究所 王江楠 010-82295006 从业资格证号：F03108382 投资咨询证号：Z0021543 1 一、主要观点 主要逻辑 综合来看，预计区间为4350-4550元/吨运行，多单可逐步止盈。 3 周内乙二醇继续回升，主因是装置的意外情况。天盈、建元临 时停车检修，浙石化降负运行，国内供应预期收缩。沙特地区 部分装置重启不畅影响近期当地装货计划有所推迟，国内外装 置均有预期外的变化，共同支撑价格上升。同时下游聚酯减产 兑现速度下降，供需结构短期向好。 下周预测：成本端，地缘问题仍有反复，需关注汽油累库是单 次意外累库还是趋势性累库，原油价格延续波动行情。供应端， 装置意外情况的影响仍在延续，不确定因素增加，将给价格带 来支持。需求端，聚酯已执行减产，淡季下新增订单体量持续 较小，织造开工维持稳定下滑。港口库存方面，显性库存保持 下降为主，下旬起外轮到货将适度增加。 二、盘面及现货情况 数据来源：Wind 5 周内成交98.03万手，持仓27.11万手（-1.02万手） 3900 4000 4100 4200 4300 4400 4500 4600 47 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has begun to decline [1]. - The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's rate cut in September, along with disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation and a decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to price adjustments in copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels for different copper markets [3]. 3. Section Summaries Macro - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, and the US June consumer price index (CPI) annual rate increased. The initial jobless claims were 227,000, better than expected and the previous value. Due to the Trump administration's pressure on Powell for a rate cut, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased while that in December decreased [3]. Upstream - The Chinese copper concentrate import index rose compared to last week. The out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) decreased (decreased, increased) last week. High - quality European scrap copper exports were restricted, and domestic importers could only buy copper scrap or brass. Concerns about Sino - US reciprocal tariffs led to low direct imports of US scrap copper. The price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper reduced the economic viability of scrap copper. The opening of the copper import window and transit supplies from countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in domestic scrap copper production (import) in July, with a change in supply - demand expectations. Tight raw material supply made traders hold back goods. Some copper plants and smelters have suspended production due to supply shortages. Multiple domestic copper production projects may increase the domestic electrolytic copper production in July, while the closed import window may limit imports, leading to an increase in the bonded - area inventory, a decrease in the social inventory, and an increase in the futures exchange inventory. Some international traders are still transporting about 500 million tons of copper to US ports, increasing the COMEX copper inventory [3]. Downstream - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China increased compared to last week. New downstream orders decreased, leading to weaker demand. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (increased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises increased (decreased) compared to last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises increased (decreased). The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper cable wrapping decreased (decreased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for cable - wrapping enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper plate and strip increased (increased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper plate and strip enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate of copper pipes decreased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper pipe enterprises decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods increased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for brass rod enterprises decreased. The easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while that of copper foil may increase [3]. Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on July 24, 2025: the closing price was 79,890, the trading volume was 161,652 lots, the open interest was 181,496 lots, the inventory was 16,183 tons, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,795. The Shanghai copper basis or spot premium/discount and various spreads also had corresponding changes compared to previous days [2]. - For London copper on July 24, 2025: the LME3 July copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,854.5, and there were changes in registration and cancellation of total warehouse - receipt inventory and contract spreads [2]. - For COMEX copper on July 24, 2025: the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.826, and the total inventory was 247,859 [2]. News Events - An accident occurred in the underground operation area of the Red Chris mine in Canada, leaving three workers trapped. Glencore has suspended the mine's operation. Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Queensland, Australia, next week, which was first announced in October 2023 [2].

碳酸锂日评20250725:情绪扩大扰动 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-17 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 76500.00 | 69320.00 | 68060.00 | 7,180.00 | 1 | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 76680.00 | 69380.00 | 67960.00 | 7.300.00 | 3 | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 75000.00 | 68620.00 | 67580.00 | 6,380.00 | ~ | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 75000.00 | 68620.00 | 67180.00 | 6.380.00 | ~ | | 收盘价 | 76680.00 | 69380.00 | 67960.00 | 7,300.00 | ~~ | | 碳酸锂期货 成交量(手) 活跃合约 | 1770283.00 | 1334159.00 | 826939.00 | 436.124.00 | N | | (元/吨) ...

| 2025-07-23 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-17 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-24 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124160.00 | 123220.00 | 119880.00 | 940.00 | - | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 124360.00 | 123370.00 | 119970.00 | 990.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 124520.00 | 123540.00 | 120090.00 | 980.00 | | | | | | 940.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 124710.00 | 123770.00 | 120330.00 | W | 124360.00 | 123370.00 | 收盘价 | 119880.00 | 990.00 | | | | | | 3 | 上海期银 | 成交量(手) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, policy expectations have a greater impact on coal and coal - chemical industries than fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons. Although 7 - month top - dressing demand supports prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand doesn't supplement, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1796 yuan/ton on July 24, up 0.96% from July 23; UR05 was 1804 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; UR09 was 1785 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In most regions, prices decreased. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1830 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton, a 1.09% decline; in Henan, it fell from 1850 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton, a 1.08% decline [1]. - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) and melamine in various regions remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 37 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton [1]. - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread increased from - 14 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1775 yuan/ton, the highest was 1796 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1768 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1785 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1782 yuan/ton. The position volume was 173,791 lots [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation - Supply: Urea supply pressure is high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventory is still around 750,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The top - dressing demand in July supports prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, prices will face downward pressure [1].

| | | 甲醇日评20250725: 短期政策预期大于基本面影响 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 变化值 | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/24 | 2025/7/23 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2550.00 | 2497.00 | 53.00 | 2.12% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2473.00 | 2428.00 | 45.00 | 1.85% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2480.00 | 2411.00 | 69.00 | 2.86% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2460.00 | 2410.00 | 50.00 | 2.07% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2300.00 | 2290.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2440.00 | 2420.00 | 20.00 | ...

| 贵金属日评20250725: 美国初请失业金仍属低于前值,欧洲央行7月暂停降息等待关税 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-18 | 收盘价 | 778.74 | 1.72 | 792. 90 | 777.02 | -14.16 | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 221277.00 | 44, 422. 00 | 286795.00 | 109, 940. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 11, 169.00 | 213456.00 | 222387.00 | 202287.00 | -8, 931. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358.00 | 28857.00 | 28857.00 | 501.00 | 501.00 | 上海黄金 | ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core View - The natural rubber price may fluctuate strongly due to the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The synthetic rubber price may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data Natural Rubber Futures - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 15245, up 240 from the previous day; the trading volume was 522391 lots; the open interest was 210844 lots; the registered warrant volume was 186680, down 20 from the previous day; the natural rubber basis was - 270, down 240 from the previous day [1]. - Regarding the daily price differences of standard rubber SCRWF in different regions compared to Shanghai, the Tianjin - Shanghai difference was - 125 (unchanged), the Shandong - Shanghai difference was - 200 (unchanged), and the Yunnan - Shanghai difference was - 325 (unchanged) [1]. - For the natural rubber monthly spread, the near - month minus the first - continuous contract was - 90, down 20 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the second - continuous contract was 15, up 5 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the third - continuous contract was - 10, down 35 from the previous day [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 12285, up 410 from the previous day; the trading volume was 148642 lots; the open interest was 48828 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9840 (unchanged); the synthetic rubber basis was - 535, down 343.33 from the previous day [1]. - The North - South difference of cis - butadiene rubber in the synthetic rubber basis: the South China - East China difference was - 75, up 25 from the previous day; another difference was - 25, down 60 from the previous day [1]. - For the synthetic rubber monthly spread, the first - continuous minus the second - continuous contract was 40, up 20 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the third - continuous contract was 40, up 20 from the previous day [1]. 2. Supply Side - In the natural rubber main producing areas, Thailand and Vietnam will have stable weather and less precipitation in the next few days, while Indonesia will have more precipitation. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan and other places [1]. - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.43%, up 3.21% from last week; the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week [1]. - As of July 24, the daily after - tax profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization method was - 168.14 yuan/ton, up 110.62 yuan/ton from the previous day; the daily after - tax profit of China's SBS solution polymerization was 150.44 yuan/ton, down 53.1 yuan/ton from the previous day; the after - tax profit of cis - butadiene rubber solution polymerization process was - 787.61 yuan/ton, up 88.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212.92 thousand tons, down 0.67 thousand tons from last week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 1.37 million tons, down 0.12 million tons from last week; the bonded area inventory was 9.19 million tons, down 0.07 million tons from last week [1]. - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 12796 tons, up 150 tons from last week [1]. 4. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the increasing period, and the main producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of July 24, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 55.3 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 15600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased. As of July 24, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 90887.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 23, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 15.7 thousand tons, down 4.3 thousand tons from last week [1]. 5. Demand Side - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, down 0.08% from last week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 76.58%, down 0.12% from last week [1]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the national automobile market retail sales were 2.804 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The passenger car sales in June were 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month. The truck sales in June were 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month, and the tire supporting demand has increased [1].

贵金属周报(黄金与白银) 特朗普政府持续施压鲍威尔尽快降息， 美国经济与就业数据表现相对景气 黄金和白银 1、美国参众两院通过稳定币相关法案且特朗普将准许养老基金等投资黄金、数字货币等资产；进口关 税推升商品价格致美国6月消费端通胀CPI年率有所升高，初请失业金人数为21.7万低于预期和前值，但因 特朗普政府持续施压鲍威尔实施降息，使美联储9月降息概率有所升高但12月降息概率有所下降。 2、欧洲央行7月暂停降息使存款机制利率维持2%。欧元区与德法7月制造业PMI为49.8/49.2/48.4均延 续回升，欧元区(德国)6月消费者物价指数CPI年率为2%(2%)持平预期但高于前值(低于预期和前值)，拉加 德表示欧美贸易冲突升级或使通胀承压，使市场预期欧洲央行25年底前或降息1次左右。 3、英国央行5月关键利率下降25个基点至4.25%，延续24年10月至25年9月减持1000亿英镑政府债券。 英国6月消费者物价指数CPI（核心CPI）年率为3.6%（3.7%）高于预期和前值，7月SPGI制造(服务)业PMI为 48.2(51.2)高(低)于预期和前值，但因4-5月国内生产总值GDP月率连续为负，使英国央行8月降 ...

| 贵金属日评20250725: 美国初请失业金仍属低于前值,欧洲央行7月暂停降息等待关税 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-18 | 收盘价 | 778.74 | 1.72 | 792. 90 | 777.02 | -14.16 | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 221277.00 | 44, 422. 00 | 286795.00 | 109, 940. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 11, 169.00 | 213456.00 | 222387.00 | 202287.00 | -8, 931. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358.00 | 28857.00 | 28857.00 | 501.00 | 501.00 | 上海黄金 | ...