| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251128：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/28 近期趋势 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,115.00 | 1.05% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 235.00 | -95.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 55,235.00 | -1.18% | | 元/吨 | 基差 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | -4,235.00 9,350.00 | 660.00 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, and geopolitical risks in multiple regions remain unresolved, which may support precious metal prices [1]. - The global supply - demand outlook for platinum from 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and the price may fluctuate on the strong side [1]. - The global supply - demand outlook for palladium from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but the price may be cautiously strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - **Futures**: Shanghai gold futures (SHFE) had a closing price of 943.13 yuan/gram on November 27, 2025, up 1.96 yuan from the previous day and 20.45 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 352,583, with a decrease of 67,866 from the previous day and 79,224 from last week. The open interest was 195,755, an increase of 6,992 from the previous day and 35,445 from last week. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 90,423, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 3 from last week [1]. - **Spot**: The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 941.17 yuan/gram on November 26, 2025. The trading volume was 57,208, and the open interest was 230,148 [1]. - **International**: COMEX gold futures had a closing price of 4,126.30 dollars/ounce on November 27, 2025. The trading volume was 229,049, and the open interest was 232,736. The London gold spot price was 4,139.60 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,045.43 tons, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 484.24 tons [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - **Futures**: Shanghai silver futures had a closing price of 12,227 yuan on November 27, 2025. The trading volume was 1,827,650, and the open interest was 385,232. - **Spot**: The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 57,208, and the open interest was 230,148 on November 26, 2025 [1]. - **International**: COMEX silver futures had a closing price of 53.76 dollars/ounce on November 26, 2025. The trading volume was 83,948, and the open interest was 102,422. The London silver spot price was 51.21 dollars/ounce. The holdings of the iShare Silver ETF were 15,582.33 tons [1]. 3.1.3 Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was at 445 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was at 61.90 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 58.11 dollars/barrel on November 27, 2025 [1]. - **Copper**: Shanghai copper futures were at 86,990 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was at 10,930 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,875.2594, the S&P 500 was at 6,812.6100, the UK FTSE 100 was at 9,552.3000, etc. [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.12%, the 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.77%, the dollar index was 99.8123, the dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.0779 [1]. 3.2 Important News - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan for the first time, stating that there is no final plan yet and preparing for a "serious" discussion with the US next week. Currently, negotiations with the current Ukrainian leadership have no practical significance [1]. - ECB official Kazaks warned that "it is too early to talk about rate cuts" and inflation risks still need to be vigilant [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The negative growth of the US ADP private - sector weekly new employment and some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Japan's economic stimulus plan has intensified its debt burden, and the UK's fiscal buffer space has increased, but there are concerns about future economic growth. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices [1]. - **Platinum**: On the supply side, factors such as high mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affect platinum production, and recycled platinum production grows slowly. On the demand side, the increase in exhaust emission standards and positive demand expectations in multiple industries lead to a tight supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026, and the rising rate - cut expectation may push the price up [1]. - **Palladium**: On the supply side, mining issues affect production, but the recycling supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, and the demand from other industries has low elasticity. The supply - demand outlook may shift from tight to loose, but the rate - cut expectation may keep the price cautiously strong [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: It is advisable to go long on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 55 - 63 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 10,000 - 11,000 yuan and the resistance level is around 12,700 - 13,000 yuan [1]. - **Platinum**: Go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term or consider the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1,260 - 1,460 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000 dollars/ounce; for domestic platinum, the support level is around 325 - 377 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 465 - 516 yuan/gram [1]. - **Palladium**: Go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1,080 - 1,280 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800 dollars/ounce; for domestic palladium, the support level is around 320 - 350 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 415 - 465 yuan/gram [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market has seen a decline in lead prices. The supply shortage has improved due to the start - up of refineries and the raw material support has weakened. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - The zinc market has weak fundamentals in the short - term, and zinc prices may face pressure. In the medium - term, the tightness of the ore end may support zinc prices. It is also recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Metrics - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.64%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 42.60%, the holding volume decreased by 1.84%, and the trading - to - holding ratio increased by 45.27%. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.04% [1]. - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price was 1,983.50 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.15% [1]. Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fees are likely to rise rather than fall, but it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead has fluctuated slightly. The operation rate of secondary lead has rebounded due to the lifting of environmental protection factors and better raw material arrivals. The finished product inventory of secondary lead is difficult to accumulate as downstream buyers turn to secondary lead [1]. Industry News - Some large - brand electric bicycle lead - acid batteries in regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Hubei have a rising return rate, mainly in the 22Ah and 24Ah high - end batteries. The return rate in some areas exceeds 6%, mainly due to battery grid breakage, possibly caused by sealant curing agents. The faulty batteries mostly come from factories in Jiangsu and Anhui [1]. - On November 26, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.08 US dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,359 to 161,920 lots [1]. Zinc Market Price and Market Metrics - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.22% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract rose by 0.27%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 19.16%, the holding volume increased by 1.01%, and the trading - to - holding ratio increased by 17.97%. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.49% [1]. - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price was 3,022.00 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio increased by 1.36% [1]. Fundamental Information - Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate market remains tight, and the processing fees are expected to decline. The production of zinc ingots is not affected for now, but the demand is weak as outdoor construction in the north stops due to cold weather [1]. Industry News - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 59,800 tons, a 1.7% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.9% decrease year - on - year [1]. - On November 26, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 163.36 US dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,623 to 220,552 lots [1].

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251128: Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cut in December Support Copper Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The rising probability of a Fed rate cut in December and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On November 27, 2025, the closing price was 86,990, up 400 from the previous day; trading volume was 95,318 lots, down 11,895; open interest was 210,684 lots, up 5,956; inventory was 35,873 tons, down 3,952 [2] Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium/Discount - On November 27, 2025, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper half - average price was 87,085, up 430 from the previous day; SMM + water copper opening discount half - average price was 55, up 20; SMM premium copper opening discount half - average price was 175, up 25 [2] London Copper - On November 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,930, down 23 from the previous day; LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 0, down 30.83; LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 0, down 138.27 [2] COMEX Copper - On November 26, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 5.2035, up 0.20 from November 24; total inventory was 417,666, up 8,281 from November 24 [2] Supply - demand Situation - On the supply side, production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod have increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods has decreased, and that of recycled copper rods has remained flat. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased compared to last week, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and multiple overseas copper mines have production disturbances, which may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 86,590, a decrease of 10 from the previous day; the trading volume was 107,213 lots, an increase of 20,231 lots; the open interest was 204,728 lots, an increase of 5,146 lots; the inventory was 39,825 tons, a decrease of 1,140 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,655, an increase of 45; the average price of SMM + water copper open discount was 35, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM premium copper open discount was 150, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM mixed copper open discount was -35, unchanged; the average price of SMM Guixi copper open discount was 175, an increase of 5 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) was 10,953, an increase of 120.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 30.83, an increase of 21.31; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 138.27, a decrease of 8.99; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9056, a decrease of 0.09 [2] Supply - Demand - Inventory - Supply side: There are disturbances in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index continues to be negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared with last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper cups has decreased [2] - Inventory side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December is rising, which may support precious metal prices. Global central banks are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks remain unresolved, all of which are factors that could support precious metal prices [1]. - The supply - demand outlook for platinum from 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate upwards [1]. - The global palladium supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Gold and Silver - **Price and Volume Data**: For Shanghai gold futures, the closing price on 2025 - 11 - 26 was 946.72, with a change of 14.16 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 341,225. For spot Shanghai gold T + D, the closing price was 941.17, and the trading volume was 57,208. For international gold, the closing price of COMEX futures active contract was 4126.30, and the closing price of London gold spot was 4072.50. Similar data is provided for silver [1]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's Beige Book shows little economic change during the government - shutdown period, with tariff pressure squeezing corporate profits and AI suppressing some recruitment demand. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan, and the official budget watchdog leaked the budget [1]. - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: The negative ADP private - sector weekly new employment in the US and some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut have increased the expectation of a December rate cut. Japan's economic stimulus plan may increase its debt burden, and the UK's fiscal situation has changed, all of which may support precious metal prices [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Investors should mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000. Similar levels are provided for silver [1]. Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affect platinum production, while demand from industries such as hydrogen production and glass fiber is expected to be positive. The supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, and combined with the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, platinum prices may fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term, or pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of "going long on platinum and short on palladium". For London platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 1260 - 1460 and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000. For domestic platinum prices, pay attention to the support level around 325 - 377 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1]. Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Logic**: Supply is affected by mining and other issues, but the supply of recycled palladium is expected to increase. Demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline, while demand from industrial and medical fields has low elasticity. The global palladium supply - demand outlook from 2025 - 2026 may shift from tight to loose, but due to the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, palladium prices may be cautiously strong [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short term. For London palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 1080 - 1280 and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800. For domestic palladium prices, pay attention to the support level around 320 - 350 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On November 26, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but due to the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the low valuation, after getting support around 115,000, the nickel price is expected to have a weak recovery [1]. - Stainless steel: On November 26, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening, but with the production - cut disturbance in the 400 - series, the stainless steel is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates (2025 - 11 - 19, 2025 - 11 - 25, 2025 - 11 - 26) showed certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 117,030 yuan/ton, up 1,090 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active nickel futures contract on November 26 was 176,566 hands (+60,128), and the open interest was 128,268 hands (- 12,947) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased, while the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless - Steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates also fluctuated. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 12,270 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract on November 26 was 151,599 hands (+1,313), and the open interest was 131,410 hands (- 15,827) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 620,400 tons (- 2,800) [1]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased last week, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, with domestic production in November decreasing and Indonesian production increasing. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [1]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and the production of the 300 - series was basically flat [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - **Nickel**: Not much information on cost analysis for nickel in the report. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat, indicating that the cost support for stainless steel was weakening [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Indonesian nickel industry emphasizes sustainable development based on green and low - carbon technologies. Indonesian Vale's director pointed out that the sustainable development of the nickel industry must be based on green and low - carbon technologies. The company has implemented multiple de - phosphorus measures, including using hydropower, recycling waste heat, and using carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Indonesian Mining Holding Company (Mind Id) said Indonesia can build a world - class supply chain meeting net - zero emission goals [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short after a rebound [1].

Report Overall Summary - The report is a daily review of lithium carbonate futures on November 26, 2025, analyzing market trends, fundamentals, and providing trading strategies [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - The current supply and demand are weak. With news of Jiangxi lithium mine restart being inconsistent, lithium ore prices and production reaching new highs, strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, light spot market transactions, weak power demand, and the exchange taking measures to cool the market, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 1,080 yuan/ton, 900 yuan/ton, 940 yuan/ton, and 940 yuan/ton respectively [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 810,231 lots (+198,952), and the open interest of the active contract was 478,054 lots (+134,855) [1] Inventory - The inventory was 27,050 tons (+435), and the SMM total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,052 tons compared to last week [1] Price Spreads - The spreads between different contracts and the basis showed various changes, such as the near - month - consecutive - one spread decreasing by 180 yuan/ton [1] Spot Prices - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium phosphate showed different degrees of increase or stability compared to the previous day [1] Industry News - The UK will include critical mineral reserves in its defense procurement plan, aiming to meet 10% of domestic demand through domestic mining and 20% through recycling by 2035, with a £50 million fund. Two London - based companies plan to build a lithium refinery in northern England, and the project is close to the final stage [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials also rose [1] Demand - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the production of lithium aluminate increased, while the production of lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries decreased. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments weakened, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1] Trading Strategy - Short at high prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to the weak employment performance in the US, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and there are production disturbances in multiple copper mines both at home and abroad. This may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in the price of Shanghai copper. The trading strategy suggests short - term light - position buying on dips for the main contract, with attention to support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - **Price**: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 86590 (down 10 from the previous day), and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper half - average price was 86655 (up 45 from the previous day). The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10953 (up 120.5 from the previous day) [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai copper on November 26, 2025, was 107213 lots (an increase of 20231 lots from the previous day), and the open interest was 204728 lots (an increase of 5146 lots from the previous day) [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper increased compared to last week. The Chinese copper inventory on November 26, 2025, was 39825 tons (a decrease of 1140 tons from the previous day) [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple copper mines both at home and abroad, causing the Chinese copper concentrate import index to remain negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased compared to the previous month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper cups decreased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Short - term light - position buying on dips for the main contract. Pay attention to the support level around 82000 - 84000 and the resistance level around 88000 - 90000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, focus on the support level around 10300 - 10500 and the resistance level around 11000 - 11500. For US copper, note the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward space for the 01 contract is limited as the import volume in December is expected to remain high, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction and high port inventory of methanol cannot be resolved in the 01 contract. It is recommended to continue holding the short - put position on the 01 contract and not to chase the high price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2067 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.48%); MA05 closed at 2188 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%); MA09 closed at 2219 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, in Shandong, it increased by 17.50 yuan/ton (0.81%), while in Guangdong, it decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.25%) [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 12.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 615 yuan/ton, 690 yuan/ton, and 690 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.16 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol increased by 70.00 yuan/ton (94.59%) to 144.00 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 1330.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: The profit of acetic acid increased by 32.97 yuan/ton (6.47%), while the profits of MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream products decreased [1]. 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a narrow range, opening at 2075 yuan/ton, closing at 2067 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1.276 million lots and a position of 1.2004 million lots, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance, and another plant with a capacity of 1.65 million tons is also planned to be shut down for maintenance soon [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Continue to hold the short - put position on the 01 contract (viewpoint score: 0) [1].