宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和 建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据 本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不 得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | G | M | E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support the lead price, with short - term prices in a range - bound and stronger consolidation, but high prices may limit upside potential due to reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1]. - For zinc, recent macro - positive sentiment and supply - side disturbances have led to a rebound in zinc prices, but this may suppress downstream buying and cause inventory accumulation, limiting the rebound space. Opportunities for short - selling should be watched for when positive factors fade [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On July 14, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the futures main - contract closing price was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 2,017 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 69.79% to 52,461 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.80% to 53,479 lots. The LME lead inventory was 249,375 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 4.48% to 52,901 tons [1]. - **Industry Operation**: From July 4 to July 10, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.88%, down 1.6 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 35.5%, up 0.7 percentage points; and that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.76%, down 1.07 percentage points. Inner Mongolia's secondary lead smelters under maintenance have no restart plan this week, and raw material supply and consumption limit production [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. Secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues, and finished - product inventory is rising. Demand is expected to improve as it transitions from the off - season to the peak season [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On July 14, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,360 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the futures main - contract closing price was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,738 dollars/ton, down 1.40%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 11.68% to 129,357 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.44% to 107,632 lots. The LME zinc inventory was 105,250 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.57% to 8,873 tons [1]. - **Industry Operation**: From July 4 to July 10, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 58.29%, up 1.81 percentage points; that of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 53.94%, up 4.80 percentage points; and that of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.84%, down 0.30 percentage points. Hudbay Minerals suspended operations in the Snow Lake area due to wildfires but maintained its 2025 production guidance [1]. - **Fundamentals and Outlook**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, and production is expected to increase. Downstream purchasing increased slightly when prices fell during the week, but overall demand remains weak [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not increase, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround lies in exports [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 3 yuan/ton (-0.17%), UR01 in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.18%), UR05 increased by 1 yuan/ton (0.06%), and UR09 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.40%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, prices in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.09%), in Henan increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.54%), in Hebei remained unchanged (0.00%), in Northeast remained unchanged (0.00%), and in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.54%) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: On July 10, compared with July 9, the anthracite price in Henan decreased by 80 yuan/ton (-7.41%), and in Shanxi remained unchanged (0.00%); the compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged (0.00%) [1] - **Downstream Prices**: On July 10, compared with July 9, the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 16 yuan/ton (-0.32%), and in Jiangsu remained unchanged (0.00%) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - On July 10, compared with July 9, the basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 4 yuan/ton [1] 3. Market Conditions - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1780 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1790 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1759 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1777 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1777 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 208,229 lots [1] 4. Fundamental Analysis - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production approaching 200,000 tons. The enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, mainly due to increased port collection, and the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 800,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests waiting for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500, and a unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) to 2434 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2360 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 26 yuan/ton (-1.08%) to 2372 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In太仓, the price increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton; in山东, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%) to 2255 yuan/ton; in广东, it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.52%) to 2412.5 yuan/ton; in内蒙古, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.51%) to 1972.5 yuan/ton. Prices in陕西, 川渝, and 湖北 remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of 太仓现货 - MA increased by 39 yuan/ton to -44 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 423.4 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at -590 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profit**: Northwest MTO profit increased by 25 yuan/ton (5.47%) to 481.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 13 yuan/ton (1.82%) to -701.07 yuan/ton [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Acetic acid profit decreased by 6.04 yuan/ton (-1.52%) to 391.09 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.37%) to -238.8 yuan/ton; 二曲監 profit decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-16.23%) to 516 yuan/ton. MTBE profit remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2370 yuan/ton, closed at 2398 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 676921 lots and an open interest of 695469, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - **Foreign**: Non - Iranian methanol cargoes for far - month arrival are priced at 270 - 280 US dollars/ton, with some offers up 2%. In other Middle - East regions, far - month arrival cargoes are negotiated at +0.5 - 1.5%, with some transactions at +1%. Southeast Asian methanol plants are running stably, but demand is weak, and local prices are weakly adjusted [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and policy expectations has boosted the bullish sentiment in commodities, and the rise in coal prices has also driven the rebound of methanol. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong, and the basis in East China needs to converge. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. A unilateral position is advised to be on the sidelines, and it is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and high costs. As the demand gradually shifts from the off - season to the peak season, the drag on lead prices may ease. Overall, raw material shortages and peak - season expectations support lead prices, but high prices may limit the upside [1]. - For zinc, zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is expected to improve, and smelter production and profits are improving. However, high zinc prices and weak downstream demand lead to limited upside for zinc prices, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the positive factors fade [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Data - **Lead**: On July 11, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract was 17,230 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the basis was - 230 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 6.39% to 30,897 lots, while the open interest increased by 0.52% to 52,534 lots [1]. - **Zinc**: On July 11, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,330 yuan/ton (up 1.09% from the previous day), the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract was 22,385 yuan/ton (up 1.20% from the previous day), the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 5.21% to 146,456 lots, while the open interest decreased by 1.85% to 112,634 lots [1]. Industry News - **Lead**: An East - China secondary lead smelter is expected to increase production by about 3,500 tons compared to last month. A Central - China primary lead smelter resumed normal production after a weekend equipment failure. As of July 10, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 61,100 tons, an increase of 4,200 tons from July 3 and 3,200 tons from July 7 [1]. - **Zinc**: A North - China zinc mine plans to conduct a 10 - day maintenance in August, affecting nearly 1,000 metal tons of zinc concentrate. The recent tender result of a North - China zinc mine was 5,450 yuan/ton (including 20 - 80 sharing). As of July 10, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 90,300 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from July 3 and 1,200 tons from July 7 [1]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250711："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/11 指标 单位 近期趋势 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 8,470.00 | 4.05% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 30.00 | -330.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | 44.50 | 14.10% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 41,345.00 | 5.28% | | 元/吨 基差 | 3,155.00 | 3,425.00 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 | 8,450.00 | 0.60% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 8,350.00 | 0.00 ...

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/11 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/桶 | 66.57 | 68.38 | -2.65% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/桶 | 68.64 | 70.19 | -2.21% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/吨 | 591.00 | 598.25 | -1.21% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/10 | | 美元/吨 | 726.00 | 724.50 | 0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/10 | 美元/吨 | 852.00 | 849.67 | 0.27% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol market is currently in a state of shock and upward movement. The trading atmosphere is good, with spot and futures trading mainly based on exchanges. The price of ethylene glycol has shown a certain upward trend, but the overall demand is still relatively weak. In the short term, the market sentiment is relatively positive, but in the long term, the supply - demand relationship and cost support need to be further observed. The supply structure is expected to gradually change, and attention should be paid to the efficiency of the supply - end and the impact of news on the market [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Raw Material Prices**: On July 10, 2025, the CFR Japan naphtha price was $591.00/ton, down 1.21% from the previous value; the Northeast Asia ethylene price was $821.00/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the methanol MA spot price was 2377.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; the含税 lignite (3500) pit - mouth price in Inner Mongolia was 290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Ethylene Glycol Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 10, 2025, the DCE EG main contract closing price was 4325.00 yuan/ton, up 0.98%; the settlement price was 4300.00 yuan/ton, up 0.75%; the near - month contract closing price and settlement price were both 4226.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI ethylene glycol price index was 4395.00 yuan/ton, up 0.92% [1] - **Price Differences**: On July 10, 2025, the near - far month price difference of ethylene glycol was 81.00 yuan/ton, up 32.00 from the previous value; the basis was 70.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 [1] - **External Market Cash Flow**: On July 9, 2025, the cash flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was -$127.58/ton, down $19.21 from the previous value [1] - **Polyester Product Prices**: On July 10, 2025, the CCFEI polyester DTY price index was 8650.00 yuan/ton, down 0.57%; the polyester POY price index was 7100.00 yuan/ton, down 0.70%; the polyester staple fiber price index was 6670.00 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the bottle - grade chip price index was 5965.00 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [1] Operating Conditions - On July 10, 2025, the comprehensive ethylene glycol operating rate was 57.41%, unchanged; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 59.20%, unchanged; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 54.83%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain polyester factory load rate was 86.87%, unchanged; the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 61.22%, down 2.10% [1] Market Transaction and Outlook - The ethylene glycol market trading atmosphere is good, with spot trading mainly by merchants and futures trading mainly by contract exchanges. The price is in a state of shock and upward movement, with the afternoon spot trading at a relatively high level. The external market has a small increase, and the trading volume has increased [2] - The current trading volume of ethylene glycol is decreasing, accompanied by a continuous reduction in downstream polyester production. The demand is relatively weak, but the market sentiment is relatively positive in the short term. In the long term, the supply - demand relationship and cost support need to be further observed. The supply structure is expected to gradually change, and attention should be paid to the efficiency of the supply - end and the impact of news on the market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the iron ore trade and production sectors, price volatility risk is one of the core challenges faced by enterprises. Financial derivative tools such as futures, swaps, and options provide diversified means for enterprises to manage price risks or optimize supply chain costs. The report analyzes from three aspects: tool types and selection, application scenarios, and operation processes [2][6] Summary by Directory I. Market Environment and Tool Selection Analysis - **Choose domestic futures when market transparency and liquidity are high**: When enterprises need high transparency, active trading, and sufficient liquidity in the iron ore market, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore futures are an ideal choice. In a stable supply - demand relationship and without major market shocks, enterprises can use standardized contracts and centralized trading mechanisms for hedging or speculation [7] - **Choose swaps or over - the - counter transactions when personalized needs are prominent**: If enterprises have special trading needs such as customizing non - standard contract terms, swaps or over - the - counter transactions are more advantageous. They can negotiate contract details with counterparties to accurately hedge risks [8] - **Tool selection under specific market trends**: - **Unilateral price increase trend**: Iron ore demanders can use domestic futures for buy - side hedging to lock in future procurement costs [9] - **Unilateral price decrease trend**: Enterprises holding a large amount of iron ore can use sell - side hedging in domestic futures to offset losses from price drops [11] - **Highly volatile and uncertain price**: Swaps or over - the - counter transactions can be used to negotiate stable price settlement methods, and can be combined with a small amount of domestic futures for dynamic position adjustment [12] II. Analysis of Iron Ore Futures, Swaps, and Over - the - Counter Hedging Scenarios and Operation Plans (1) Analysis of scenarios and operation plans for hedging with iron ore futures - **Suitable scenarios**: Physical delivery, hedging for domestic port spot prices, and pursuing standardized and highly liquid trading [14] - **Operation process**: - **Pre - trading preparation**: Risk assessment, fund planning, and contract selection [17][18][19] - **Trading process operation**: Hedging operations and risk management (setting stop - loss and take - profit intervals) [20][21] - **Post - trading management**: Closing positions or physical delivery, and evaluating the hedging effect [23][24] (2) Analysis of scenarios and operation plans for hedging with iron ore swaps - **Suitable scenarios**: International market trading and US - dollar - denominated needs, the need to customize contract terms flexibly, and long - term hedging [25] - **Operation process**: - **Selecting trading counterparties**: Credit assessment and communication of cooperation intentions [27][28] - **Negotiating contract terms**: Determining core terms and setting risk terms [29][30] - **Executing and monitoring the transaction**: Strictly fulfilling contract obligations and closely monitoring the market and counterparties' performance [31][32] - **Transaction settlement and follow - up management**: Completing settlement operations and maintaining good relationships with counterparties [35][36] (3) Analysis of scenarios and operation plans for hedging with options - **Suitable scenarios**: Avoiding price increase risks, avoiding price decrease risks, hedging basis trade risks, and hedging in high - uncertainty markets [37][38][39] - **Operation process**: - **Defining hedging goals**, **analyzing the market environment**, **selecting option contracts**, **determining option positions**, **building and monitoring positions**, and **closing positions or exercising options** [40][41][42] - **Specific operation plans for different scenarios**: - **Avoiding price increase risks**: Buying call options. For example, a steel mill can lock in the purchase cost while retaining the opportunity for low - price procurement [47] - **Avoiding price decrease risks**: Buying put options. A trader can lock in the selling price while retaining the opportunity for inventory appreciation [59] - **Hedging basis trade risks**: Traders need to choose to sell call or put options according to the spot position and the steel mill's price - setting operation [70] - **High - uncertainty market**: Using a straddle option combination to profit from significant price fluctuations in either direction [83] - **Risk management and precautions**: Setting stop - loss and take - profit points, diversifying investments, monitoring market volatility, choosing appropriate option contracts, understanding exercise and delivery rules, and complying with policies and regulations [87][88] III. Comparative Analysis of Different Tools and Combination Strategies (1) Comparison of core characteristics of different derivative tools - **Futures**: High standardization, high liquidity, cost structure of margin + handling fees, low credit risk, suitable for large - scale risk hedging of main iron ore varieties [91] - **Swaps**: Low standardization, medium liquidity, cost structure of spread + service fees, credit risk depending on counterparties, suitable for non - standard ore varieties [91] - **Over - the - counter options**: Low standardization, low liquidity, cost structure of premium + exercise fees, high credit risk, suitable for "insurance - type" hedging in extreme market conditions [91] (2) Combination strategies: - **Futures + options**: A steel mill can buy futures contracts to lock in the basic cost and buy call options to retain the potential benefits of price drops [91][92] - **Futures + swaps**: A trader can conduct arbitrage by taking advantage of the price difference between the domestic futures market and the Singapore iron ore swap market [97][98]

| 行植期货 | | | 碳 酸 ª 译 20250710:国内碳酸锂7月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-09 | 2025-07-08 | 2025-07-03 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 64700.00 | 65100.00 | 64300.00 | -400.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 64680.00 | 64240.00 | 64160.00 | 440.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 64160.00 | 63740.00 | 64080.00 | 420.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 64160.00 | 63740.00 | 63800.00 | 420.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 64400.00 | 63880.00 | 64080.00 | 520.00 | | | 砖酸但期货 | | 成交量(手) | ...