黑色金属周报-铁矿 宏观预期提振 矿价震荡偏强 宏观预期提振 矿价震荡偏强 研究所 白净 F03097282，Z0018999 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 上周铁矿现货价格震荡反弹，上涨幅度在24-40元不等。具体来看，卡粉（+31），PB粉（+25），BRBF （+25），金布巴（+40）， 超特粉（+25），mac（+26）。块矿方面，PB块（+29） ，纽曼块（+33），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+24） 。普氏62%指数方面，截止 7月11日，普氏指数收于98.3美元，周环比回升2.6美元，目前按汇率7.17折算人民币大致在821元左右。仓单方面，截止7月11日，最优 交割品为NM粉，目前最新报价在746元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为769元/吨左右，09铁矿贴水现货，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为pb粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比去库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量14346.89万吨，环比去库139万吨,较 年初去库1264万吨,比去年同期库存低1359万吨。下期从卸货端考虑，到港持稳；从需求端考虑，铁水窄幅波动，日均疏港量持稳，下 周预计整体卸货入库量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Macro - "anti - involution" brings strong bullish sentiment, but the zinc market sees increases in both ore and ingot supply. The demand side is in the off - season, and the zinc market's inventory accumulation trend is gradually emerging. The fundamentals are weak, and the rebound of zinc prices is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the view of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. Continued attention should be paid to macro and downstream consumption conditions [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The closing price of SMM1 zinc ingot average price increased by 0.09% to 22,360 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.13% to 22,380 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.09% to 2,738 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Raw Material End 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of July 11, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the total inventory of 7 ports was 333,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [20]. - As of July 10, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,064 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [26]. - As of July 11, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 66.48 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of July 10, the production profit was - 234 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - The import profit window was closed. As of July 11, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,523.72 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [40]. 3. Downstream Demand 3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 1.81 percentage points to 58.29%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased [46][49]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of zinc alloy fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy increased by 0.09% to 23,055 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy increased by 0.08% to 23,605 yuan/ton [53]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 4.8 percentage points to 53.94%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory increased [56][59][60]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained stable. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [67]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.30 percentage points to 55.84%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [70][73]. 4. Inventory - As of July 14, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 86,100 tons, an increase in inventory. As of July 10, the SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [78]. - As of July 11, the SHFE inventory was 50,000 tons, an increase in inventory, and the LME inventory was 105,250 tons, a continuous decrease in inventory [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. Considering the strong support from the raw material side, it is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro - factors on the lead price [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,925 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 1.27% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.94% to 2,017 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific summary was made in the content, only historical basis data trends were presented [13][14][15]. 2. Raw Materials and Primary Lead - **Raw Materials**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 550 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrates is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 4, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 82.7 yuan/ton [29]. - **Primary Lead Production**: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.88%. A refinery in Henan reduced its weekly output due to equipment failure and is expected to resume normal production this week. A refinery in North China is expected to end maintenance and resume production in mid - to - late July. Another smelter in East China plans a long - term maintenance in the fourth quarter [30][34]. - **Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters**: The total annual production capacity is 3.29 million tons, the monthly production capacity is 260,000 tons, and the weekly production capacity is 63,300 tons. The total output in the week of July 4 was 49,065 tons, in the week of July 11 was 47,815 tons, and this week's expected output is 49,065 tons [35]. 3. Recycled Lead - **Waste Battery Price**: As of July 11, the average price of waste batteries was 10,300 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The tight supply of waste batteries has not improved, and the purchase price has not changed significantly [43]. - **Recycled Lead Smelter Profit**: As of July 11, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 408 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 636 yuan/ton [49]. - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory**: As of July 10, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The raw material inventory was 126,500 tons, and the finished product inventory was 22,400 tons [53]. - **Recycled Lead Operating Rate**: The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 0.70 percentage points to 35.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of recycled lead was 37,000 tons, showing a decline. A refinery in Anhui that was under maintenance has recently restarted the furnace but has not yet produced lead. A refinery in Inner Mongolia has no plan to resume production in the near future, and the operating rate fluctuates slightly [54]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 70.76%. The domestic electric bicycle and battery markets have not improved significantly. Dealers are mainly consuming inventory, and enterprise orders are weak. The export pressure of lead batteries is increasing as the US tariff suspension period is about to end [59]. 5. Import and Export - As of July 4, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of July 11, the import profit was - 741.56 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [64]. 6. Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 63,400 tons, showing an increase. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, and inventory has accumulated due to the large spot - futures price difference [75]. - **SHFE and LME Inventory**: As of July 11, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 55,100 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 249,400 tons, showing a decrease [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from January 2024 to May 2025 [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut is delayed, but due to the slower - than - expected debt issuance pace of the US Treasury, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on dips. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 771.30 yuan/g, with a change of 2.26 yuan compared to the previous day and 0.26 yuan compared to the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3333.00 dollars/ounce, with a change of 37.30 dollars compared to the previous week. London gold spot price was 3335.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.50 dollars compared to the previous week. [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8872.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 121.00 yuan compared to the previous week. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 2.29 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.08 dollars compared to the previous week. London silver spot price was 36.31 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.69 dollars compared to the previous week. [1] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 85.57, with a change of - 1.37 compared to the previous week. The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.88, with a change of - 2.49 compared to the previous week. [1] Important News - **US Policy**: The Trump administration plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 50 billion and 85 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the weekly benchmark Treasury issuance scale. [1] - **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed's July rate - cut probability is low due to higher - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, but the expected rate - cut time is still September/December. The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut its key rate by 25 basis points in June, and there is an increasing expectation of rate cuts in August and 2 - 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points in January and may reduce quarterly Treasury purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3150 - 3250 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/g and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/g. For London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 35 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 38 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 830 - 8600 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9000 - 10000 yuan/ten - grams. [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still around 800,000 tons. In July, the top - dressing demand will support the price, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On July 11, UR01 was 1,734 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from July 10), UR05 was 1,738 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from July 10), and UR09 was 1,773 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan or - 0.23% from July 10). [1] - **Spot Prices**: Among domestic small - particle urea spot prices, the price in Hebei increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 1,810 yuan/ton on July 11, while prices in other regions remained unchanged. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 122 yuan/ton on July 11, down 1 yuan from July 10. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively on July 11. [1] - **Downstream**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 11. [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1,776 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,787 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,767 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,773 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,776 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2509 was 197,786 lots. [1] Trading Strategy Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to the support of top - dressing demand in July. But be aware of the significant downward pressure on prices if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented. [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to be loose, with production and inventory at a high level, but the price may have an upward space due to government - led clearance and the impact of automobile consumption. It is recommended to set up a stop - loss line and hold long positions in appropriate quantities, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the pressure level around 66,000 - 70,000. [5] - The UK Transport Secretary plans to invest £6 million in building household and logistics warehouse chargers and has a £2.5 billion plan to support the transition of automakers to zero - emission vehicle manufacturing. [1] - A 720V high - voltage solid - state lithium salt battery has been mass - produced in China, while Panasonic delays production in the US, and Derui Battery is advancing new capacity acceptance work. [2] - The production plan of the OaoL factory in the US is to produce at least 100 tons of graphite - based lithium salt, but OneD Battery Sciences has closed its pilot manufacturing factory due to tariff policies. [2] - Domestic lithium salt factories increase long - term contract procurement or customer - supplied models, but downstream cathode material factories have a low willingness to take delivery yet still have rigid demand procurement. [5] Industry Information Supply - side Information - The daily cash production cost of spodumene and lepidolite - produced lithium carbonate is about 60,000 yuan/ton, with negative production profit, while the cash production cost of spodumene, lepidolite, and salt - lake - produced lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter is about 2,000 - 6,130 yuan/ton, with positive production profit. The import window is closed, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate may decrease. [1][3][5] - China's monthly production of lithium hydroxide by smelting and causticizing methods may decrease in July, and the inventory in factories and warehouses may increase. The daily cash production cost of lithium hydroxide is about 3,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton, with negative production profit. The production line of a group is planned to be completed in 2025, and the production volume of lithium hydroxide may be affected. [3][5] - The production cost of cobalt tetroxide in China is about 11,000 - 14,000 yuan/ton, with positive profit, which may lead to an increase in the production and export volume of cobalt tetroxide in China in July. The monthly processing fee of ternary materials in China has decreased, the daily average production cost of multi - brand typical ternary materials is about 10,000 yuan/ton, with negative production profit, and the inventory in factories has increased, which may lead to an increase in the production volume of ternary materials in China in July. [5] - The daily production cost of externally - sourced raw material - used ternary precursor is about 9,500 yuan/ton, with negative production profit, and the production volume of ternary precursor in China may increase in July. The export volume of ternary precursor in China may increase in July. [5] Demand - side Information - The monthly average production cost of different production processes of iron phosphate is about 10,600 - 12,900 yuan/ton, and the production volume of iron phosphate in China may increase in July. [4][5] - The monthly average production cost of different production processes of lithium iron phosphate is about 29,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the inventory in factories has increased. [5] - The export volume of 3C - type ternary precursor in China may increase in July, and the monthly processing fee of ternary materials has decreased. [5] Market Price Information - On July 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of lithium carbonate futures has changed as follows: the closing price of the near - month contract decreased by 1,460 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 1,588 tons. [1] - The average price of lithium ore increased by 1 yuan/ton, the average price of lepidolite remained unchanged, the average price of phosphate - lithium aluminum remained unchanged, the average price of metallic lithium remained unchanged, the average price of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic) increased by 100 yuan/ton, the average price of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery - grade/ domestic) remained unchanged. [1] Company Information - Jianheng Aorui Technology Co., Ltd. in Inner Mongolia has achieved mass production of 720V high - voltage solid - state lithium salt batteries, making China the third country in the world to achieve commercial mass production of solid - state lithium salt batteries. [2] - Panasonic Holdings will adjust the production plan of its new EV battery factory in the US, delaying the production plan. [2] - Derui Battery is advancing the acceptance work of new capacity, and the new capacity will be gradually released according to sales and orders. [2] - OaoL plans to produce at least 100 tons of graphite - based lithium salt in the US, but OneD Battery Sciences has closed its pilot manufacturing factory due to tariff policies. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The spot price of industrial silicon increased, while the futures price decreased. The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased slightly. Due to the supply - demand situation, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon may continue to be strong in the short - term, and short - term operations are recommended. For industrial silicon, the supply may be less than expected, and polysilicon demand may increase due to resumption of production. For polysilicon, the supply may increase slightly, and the demand is still weak, but the sentiment of price increase is strong [1]. Group 3: Summary of Specific Information by Category 1. Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.76% to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.65% to 8,415 yuan/ton. The price of various types of industrial silicon in different regions also showed different degrees of increase [1]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feedstock, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained unchanged. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.04% to 41,330 yuan/ton [1]. - Other products: The price of DMC increased by 3.35% to 10,800 yuan/ton, and the prices of other products such as 107 glue and silicone oil remained unchanged. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also remained stable [1]. 2. Industry News - Inner Mongolia Siyuan Xinneng Electronic Materials Technology Co., Ltd. plans a nearly 3 - billion - yuan silicon - carbon anode project in three phases, with an expected annual sales of 4 - 6 billion yuan and tax payment of about 300 million yuan after full production [1]. - Some photovoltaic glass enterprises have cold - repair plans. There will be nearly 2,000 tons/day of production reduction in July and an additional 2,400 tons/day in August [1]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis Industrial silicon - Supply: Northern large - scale factories have production reduction arrangements, no resumption of production news. Southwest production areas will enter the rainy season, and the power cost will decrease, but the resumption of production is slow. After supply increase and decrease offset, there may be a reduction [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, some silicon material factories will resume production in July, bringing some demand increase; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak; silicon aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, but some new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly but remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, and the inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials have increased. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have increased recently, the terminal market is still weak [1]. 4. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The short - term may continue to be strongly sorted, and short - term operations are recommended. In the medium - and long - term, there is pressure on the upside [1]. - Polysilicon: The short - term price may continue to be strong, and price fluctuations may intensify. Short - term operations are recommended, and attention should be paid to actual start - up and supply - side reform implementation [1].

| 甲醇日评20250714: 港口逐步累库,单边驱动有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/10 | 变化值 (絕对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2443.00 | 2463.00 | -20.00 | -0.81% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 元/吨 | 2371.00 | 2380.00 | -9.00 | -0.38% | | (收盘价) MA09 | 元/吨 | 2370.00 | 2398.00 | -28.00 | -1.17% | | 太せ | 元/吨 | 2367.50 | 2390.00 | -22.50 | -0.94% | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2250.00 | 2255.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | 广东 期现价格 | 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2412.50 | -22.50 | -0.93% | | 申醇观货价格 及其差 陕西 (日度均价) | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 204 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that although there are disruptions in the production or transportation of multiple copper mines overseas, due to the Trump administration's imposition of high - tariff policies on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional consumption off - season in the domestic market, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,430, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, a decrease of 17,565 lots; the open interest was 178,682 lots, a decrease of 2,386 lots; the inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 23,307 tons, an increase of 1,578 tons [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 11, 2025 was 9,663, a decrease of 19 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 108,725 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on July 11, 2025 was 5.584, an increase of 0.04 compared to the previous day; the total inventory increased by 10,797 tons [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Macro**: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion and $560 billion by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the scale of weekly Treasury bond auctions. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not led to a significant rebound in consumer - end inflation. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with the expected time for rate cuts being September or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Wildfires in northern Manitoba, Canada, have caused Hudbay Minerals to suspend operations at its Snow Lake mine. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates has increased compared to last week. The export volume of Australian copper concentrates has decreased. The supply of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the domestic scrap copper production or import volume in July is expected to decrease, with a tight supply - demand outlook. Some copper smelters have suspended production, while others are under construction or have new production capacity coming online. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas and the total inventory of electrolytic copper in China have increased compared to last week, as has the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper [2]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods used in East China's power and cable industries has decreased compared to last week. Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The operating rates of some copper - related industries have changed, with the operating rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, and copper plate and strip increasing, while those of steel pipes and brass rods decreasing. The domestic steel enterprises' production capacity, production volume, and import volume in July are expected to decline [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support levels of 76,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,600 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.58 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,900 - 10,200 for London copper, and 6.0 - 7.0 for US copper [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain has returned to fundamental-driven, with weakening supply and demand expectations leading to a full - scale decline in prices. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $68.45 per barrel, up 2.82%; Brent crude oil was $70.36 per barrel, up 2.51%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $584.25 per ton, down 1.14%. The spot price of isomeric xylene FOB South Korea was $719.50 per ton, down 0.96% [1]. - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,700 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 0.89%; settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Domestic PTA spot price was 4,714 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1]. - **PX**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,694 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 1.30%; settlement price was 6,720 yuan per ton, down 0.44%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,813 yuan per ton, up 0.19% [1]. - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,878 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 0.64%; settlement price was 5,886 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,955 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 11, 2025, CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 0.58%; polyester POY remained unchanged at 7,100 yuan per ton; polyester short - fiber was 6,655 yuan per ton, down 0.22% [2]. Production and Sales Information - On July 11, 2025, the production - sales ratio of polyester filament was 36%, down 15 percentage points; that of polyester staple fiber was 41%, down 21 percentage points; and that of polyester chips was 61%, down 10 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 5% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Market Analysis - PX price rose slightly and then fell this week. The absolute price on Friday decreased by 0.4% month - on - month to $837 per ton CFR. The weekly average price continued to shrink, down 1.2% month - on - month to $846 per ton CFR. Although there was an unplanned shutdown of individual PX devices during the week, the PX supply in Asia remained stable. In the current off - season of polyester consumption, after the sharp decline of PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream start - up [2]. - The PTA inventory is in a downward channel in absolute terms but at a high level in relative terms in the past five years, and the situation of near - term strength and long - term weakness is difficult to change. In July, polyester factories actually implemented maintenance, and the start - up rate decreased significantly compared with June [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,900 - 6,020 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The supply of bottle - chips has relatively sufficient market goods, and the downstream end - users have replenished their stocks at low prices recently, and the trading in the market may gradually fade [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,700 yuan per ton, down 0.59%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.17 million lots. PX price has returned to consolidation. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,694 yuan per ton, down 0.83%, with an intraday trading volume of 214,200 lots. PR follows the cost operation. The 2509 contract closed at 5,878 yuan per ton, down 0.31%, with an intraday trading volume of 45,900 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].