Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, disruptions in copper mine production and transportation overseas, the combination of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, and the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventories, the Shanghai copper price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 100,562 lots, an increase of 17,176 lots. The open interest was 215,738 lots, a decrease of 8,934 lots. The inventory was 22,307 tons, a decrease of 1,796 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan [2]. - **Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 808 yuan, an increase of 385 yuan from the previous day. The differences between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous contracts also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous first contract was 260 yuan, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,852 US dollars, a decrease of 99.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 95,275 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.136 US dollars, an increase of 0.04 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 220,954 tons, an increase of 8,815 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate version of the "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion US dollars and expanding the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion US dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September, October, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Mining operations of Las Bambas and Constancia were disrupted due to miner road - blockades, which may affect copper production [2]. Investment Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: In July, domestic copper concentrate production and imports may decrease. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and rising. The export of high - quality scrap copper from Europe is restricted, and trade concerns reduce the willingness to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the opening of the scrap copper import window may lead to an increase in domestic scrap copper imports. Some copper smelters have production disruptions, while others are under construction or expanding production, which may increase domestic crude copper and electrolytic copper production in July. The import window of electrolytic copper is closed, increasing the inventory in the bonded area, but some large smelters plan to increase exports [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The capacity utilization rates of various downstream copper - related industries may decline in July due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, except for the electrolytic copper rod production whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 81,000 - 83,000 yuan for resistance), London copper (8,300 - 8,600 US dollars for support and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars for resistance), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 US dollars for support and 5.2 - 5.5 US dollars for resistance) [3].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250707："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格强势上行 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/7/7 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 1.19% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 7,980.00 | -0.37% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 520.00 | 130.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 34.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 35,510.00 | 1.31% | | -1,010.00 | 基差 | 元/吨 | | -460.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 1.19% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 8,500.00 | 1.19% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 8,4 ...

| 贵金属日评20250707: OPEC+计划8-9月原油连续增产,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | 交易日期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-04 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-06-30 | 收盘价 | 777.06 | 781.28 | 767.58 | -4.22 | 9. 48 | | | | | | 成交量 | 213782. 00 | 189582. 00 | 24, 200. 00 | 211285.00 | 2, 497.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 175040.00 | 19, 219. 00 | 155821.00 | -421.00 | 175461.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 21456.00 | 3.000.00 | 18237.00 | 3, 219. 00 | 18456.00 | 上海 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The production and inventory of various lithium - related products and other chemical products have different trends, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the pressure level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Price**: On July 4, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 600, 660, 620, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 800 yuan/ton [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 347,729 lots, a decrease of 73,238 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 325,288 lots, a decrease of 8,769 lots from the previous day [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 21,036 tons, a decrease of 1,844 tons from the previous day [1] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts increased by 60 yuan/ton; the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts decreased by 40 yuan/ton; the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts remained unchanged. The basis increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 653 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day; the average prices of various types of lithium mica also increased to varying degrees [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Battery Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and other materials also had different changes [1] 3.3 Company News - **Codal Mining**: It signed a purchase agreement for the expansion of the DMS processing plant's spodumene concentrate in the Bougouni lithium project with Hainan Mining. The DMS processing plant has produced over 1,000 tons of spodumene concentrate and is working on obtaining export licenses. The first - phase project is expected to produce 100,000 - 120,000 tons of spodumene concentrate annually [2] - **Anhui Anwa New Energy**: Its self - developed world's first 3.0 - level new solid - state battery production line's first batch of engineering samples was successfully launched. The first - generation product has an energy density of over 300Wh/kg, and the company plans to launch the third - generation all - solid - state battery with an energy density exceeding 500Wh/kg in 2027 [2] - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Its Mali Gooldariness lithium project's first - phase with an annual capacity of 0.6 million tons of fine ore has been put into production [3] - **Tianqi Lithium**: Its 35,000 - ton wet - process project in Jianglin City may be put into production in June 2026, and the total capacity will reach 215,000 tons per year [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The domestic lithium carbonate production in July may increase month - on - month, but the import volume has decreased. The production of lithium hydroxide may decrease in October. The production of lithium iron phosphate and other products may increase in July [3][5] - **Demand**: The demand for lithium salts from downstream cathode material factories is mainly based on rigid procurement. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in July may increase month - on - month [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. Currently, the supply - demand drivers for methanol are not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight supply of spot goods in ports has been alleviated. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and to consider going long on MTO profits [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 4, 2025, MA01 closed at 2437 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.53%); MA05 at 2356 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.42%); MA09 at 2399 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) compared to July 3 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2445 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.41%); in Shandong, 2292.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1]. - **Profit Data**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 433.40 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 460.00 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit was 308.80 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-10.18%); East China MTO profit was - 854.07 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton (7.97%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fell weakly, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2399 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 704431 lots and an open interest of 694763, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: From early to mid - week, far - month non - Iranian cargoes were negotiated at 275 - 284 dollars/ton, with few fixed - price offers and no real - deal transactions. CFR China price was in the range of 217 - 281 dollars/ton [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The report believes that methanol may be weakly volatile in the short - term. Due to high upstream coal - based profits, poor downstream comprehensive profits, and weak supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading of the 09 contract and to consider going long on MTO profits [1].

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 8875.00 | 8875.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 7275.00 | 7275.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | 游 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 6710.00 | 6760.00 | -0.74% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 5885.00 | 5905.00 | -0.34% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/7/4 | 元/吨 | 5980.00 | 6000.00 | -0.33% | | 东营联合25 ...

本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和 建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据 本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不 得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 免责声明： 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 | G | M | E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound space of methanol is limited. From a valuation perspective, the upstream coal - based profit is still high, while the downstream comprehensive profit is relatively poor, making the methanol valuation relatively expensive. In terms of drivers, the supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supplementation of inland and South American supplies, the tight spot situation in ports has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in the East China spot price. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profit [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, MA01 in Taicang was 2450 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 0.66% change), MA05 was 2366 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton, a 0.77% change), and MA09 was 2414 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton, a 0.42% change) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in different regions on July 3, 2025 were as follows: Shaanxi was 2090 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.12% change), Sichuan - Chongqing was 2250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hubei was 2315 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia was 2017.5 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton, a 0.25% change) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA on July 3, 2025 was 5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: On July 3, 2025, Ordos Q5500 was 430 yuan/ton (unchanged), Datong Q5500 was 490 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Yulin Q6000 was 490 yuan/ton (down 2.5 yuan/ton, a - 0.51% change) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the prices in Hohhot and Chongqing were 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively, both unchanged [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 433.40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol was - 460.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Downstream Profits**: On July 3, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was 343.80 yuan/ton (down 6.40 yuan/ton, a - 1.83% change), the profit of East China MTO was - 928.07 yuan/ton (down 46.00 yuan/ton, a - 5.21% change), the profit of acetic acid was 382.00 yuan/ton (down 5.50 yuan/ton, a - 1.42% change), the profit of MTBE was 146.28 yuan/ton (down 31.80 yuan/ton, a - 17.86% change), the profit of formaldehyde was - 233.60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of "Yilangtan" was 602.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2408 yuan/ton, closing at 2414 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 705,823 lots and an open interest of 706,992 lots, showing volume increase and position decrease. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1]. - **Foreign Information**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a certain Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and loading and shipping arrangements [1].

报告行业投资评级 报告未明确给出行业投资评级相关内容 报告核心观点 国内碳酸锂供给预期宽松，价格或受影响，建议投资者逢低试多主力合约，关注58000 - 62000附近支撑位及66000 - 70000附近压力位[5] 分目录总结 锂行业供给情况 - 阿根廷四个锂矿项目投产后年产能将增加72%，达到0.2万公吨当量[1] - 智利合资企业未来90年最多可生产和销售33万吨碳酸锂当量[1] - 天齐锂业总产销或达201万吨/年，国内锂矿生产进口量或环比减少[3] - 广东浩海、紫金矿业电池级碳酸锂产能分别于25年7月、26年12月投产，国内碳酸锂生产量或环比增加[3] - 赣锋锂业氢氧化锂产能2月投产，中国碳酸锂进口量或环比减少[3] - 中国碳酸锂社会库存量较上周升高，交易所碳酸锂库存量较上周增加[3] 锂行业需求情况 - 国内碳酸锂需求预期宽松，期货交易所碳酸锂库存量、社会库存量较上周增加[3] - 中国氢氧化锂7月生产量或环比减少，库存量或环比增加，出口量或环比减少[3] 磷酸铁行业情况 - 中国磷酸铁1月生产量或环比增加，不同工艺平均生产成本为1.0 - 1.8万元/吨[4] - 湖北营派、天程锂电项目分别于26年、25年12月投产，中国磷酸铁锂生产量或环比增加[4][5] 其他产品情况 - 中国硫酸镍、电解钴、氧化钴、四氧化三钴1月生产量或环比增加，使中国钴盐生产量或环比增加[5] - 中国硫酸镍周度生产成本为1.3 - 1.1万元/吨，生产利润为正，生产出口量环比增加[5] - 中国碳酸钴月生产量或环比增加[5] - 中国三元前驱体加工费下降，生产成本为99.0元/吨，生产利润为负[5] - 中国新能源汽车、动力电芯1月生产出货与库存量或环比增加，使中国钴盐生产量或环比增加[5] - 中国进口硫矿价格升高，进口氧/硫矿出路困难，库存量较上周减少[5] - 中国钴盐生产量或环比增加[5] - 中国硫酸铝月生产量或环比增加[5]