| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250708："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/7/8 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,045.00 | 0.81% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 455.00 | -65.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 34.50 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 36,515.00 | 2.83% | | 基差 | 元/吨 | -2,015.00 | -1,005.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,500.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,400.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil supply-demand outlook is poor, and the supply glut expectation weighs on oil prices. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the risk premium has been fully reversed. The PX price has fallen back to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. PTA will see new capacity come on stream in the third quarter, creating a timing mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on the presence of more unexpected supporting factors. The PTA market is bearish due to the increase in PTA capacity utilization rate and the reduction in production by downstream polyester factories. The PTA inventory is in a downward trend in absolute terms but at a near-five-year high in relative terms, and the situation of near-term strength and long-term weakness is hard to change. The polyester industry chain is less affected by macro factors and returns to fundamental-driven, with weakening supply-demand expectations leading to a full decline in prices. If the polyester production cut deepens, PTA will be relatively weaker. The profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain has tilted back towards the raw material segment due to the strong cost-side drive. PTA's own fundamentals have weakened month-on-month but without inventory accumulation, and it is expected to follow the cost side in a weak and volatile manner in the short term. The polyester bottle chip market is in a weak and volatile state, with supply-side quotes showing mixed trends. The supply-side开工率 is relatively low, and market supplies may tighten. Downstream terminals maintain rigid demand, and market sentiment is cautious. The polyester industry chain's current demand is not optimistic, and it generally follows cost fluctuations. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 7, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased by 2.15% and 1.87% respectively compared to the previous values. The spot prices of naphtha and xylene decreased slightly, while the spot price of p-xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port increased by 0.28% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract remained unchanged, while the settlement price decreased by 0.72%. The closing and settlement prices of the near-month contract showed small changes. The domestic PTA spot price and related price indices decreased, with the CCFEI PTA outer - disk price index down 1.40% compared to July 4. The near - far month spread and basis decreased [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract increased by 0.18%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.77%. The closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract decreased by 0.78%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged, and the CFR China Taiwan price increased by 0.24%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread increased, while the basis decreased [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract increased slightly by 0.03%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.44%. The closing and settlement prices of the near - month contract remained unchanged. The market prices of polyester bottle chips in the East and South China markets decreased, and the bases decreased [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester filaments and polyester chips decreased on July 7, 2025, except for the polyester short - fiber price index which remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%. The PTA factory load rate increased by 3.75 percentage points to 80.59%, while the polyester factory load rate decreased by 0.94 percentage points to 87.30%. The bottle chip factory load rate decreased by 3.22 percentage points to 71.93%, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 61.22% [1] Production and Sales - On July 7, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios of polyester filaments and polyester short - fibers increased by 9.00 and 1.00 percentage points respectively, while the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips decreased by 20.00 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA plant reduced its load by about 5% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA plant is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation state, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan/ton (-0.59%) and an intraday trading volume of 863,500 lots. PX price has returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,684 yuan/ton (-0.62%) and an intraday trading volume of 161,300 lots. PR follows the cost movement, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,872 yuan/ton (-0.37%) and an intraday trading volume of 38,300 lots. The international oil prices ended higher. The polyester industry chain's current demand is not optimistic, and PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to move in a volatile manner [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was found. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is currently in a weak state, with prices fluctuating at a low level and overall trading being rather stagnant. The downstream polyester production and sales are generally light, and the reduction in production scale is gradually increasing. At the same time, the supply is expected to increase as multiple ethylene glycol units complete maintenance. The cost support is weakening due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of crude oil trends. Overall, the ethylene glycol market is expected to remain weak in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - The mid - price of naphtha is $577.00 per ton on 2025/7/7, up 0.30% from the previous value; the upstream cost on 202/4/8 is 1.00, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is 6,450.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/8, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price of methanol is 4,42.02 yuan per ton on 202/24, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The tax - included price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 290.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract is 4,282.00 yuan per ton on 202, down 0.26% from the previous value; the settlement price of the nearby contract is 4,226.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The market mid - price of ethylene glycol in the East China region is 430.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The price difference between the near and far months is 56.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, and the basis is - 11.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol is 1.00 on 202, down 2.00 from the previous value [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber is 8,750.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, up 1.41% from the previous value; the price index of polyester chips is 10.00 on 202, up 1.72% from the previous value; the price index of polyester staple fiber is 6,710.00 yuan per ton on 2025/7/7, unchanged from the previous value; the price index of bottle - grade chips is 90.00 yuan per ton on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. Production and Operation Information - An Anhui synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons is expected to resume operation this month after a mid - month shutdown and maintenance [2]. - The operating rate of the polyester industry chain: the operating rate of PTA factories is 87.30% on 2025/7/7, down 0.94% from the previous value; the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 61.22% on 202, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The production and sales of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are 1.0%, 0%, and 0% respectively, showing a downward trend [2]. Trade and Strategy Information - The mainstream negotiation price of external - market naphtha - based ethylene glycol is around $410.99 per ton on 202; the negotiation price of external - market ethylene - based ethylene glycol is around $144.15 per ton on 2025/7/4 [1]. - The post - tax gross profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is 1,800.00 yuan per ton on 202, up 24.67 from the previous value [1]. - In the trading strategy, the trading volume of the current stage is 160,000 lots, and the price is 2,092.90 yuan per ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For lead, due to no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, stable increase in primary lead production, and high costs and low production in the secondary lead sector, along with the transition from the off - season to the peak season in demand, lead prices are expected to oscillate upwards but with limited upside due to inventory accumulation risks [1]. - For zinc, with sufficient raw material reserves in smelters, improved supply of zinc concentrates, and weak downstream demand, zinc prices have rebounded recently but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the disappearance of positive factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price and Market Data - **Lead**: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,975 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; futures main contract closing price was 17,210 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; LME3 - month lead futures closing price was 2,057 dollars/ton; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.37, down 0.49% [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; futures main contract closing price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 1.43%; LME3 - month zinc futures closing price was 2,735.5 dollars/ton; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.08, down 1.43% [1]. b. Inventory - **Lead**: As of July 7, SMM lead ingot five - location inventory was 5.79 million tons, up 0.15 million tons from June 30 and 0.1 million tons from July 3 [1]. - **Zinc**: As of July 7, SMM zinc ingot seven - location inventory was 8.91 million tons, up 0.85 million tons from June 30 and 0.67 million tons from July 3 [1]. c. Production News - The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun 600,000 - ton lead - zinc smelting project, built by China Wuye Group, has been put into production. After reaching full capacity, it can process 2.5 million tons of lead - zinc ore annually, producing 560,000 tons of zinc ingots and 110,000 tons of lead ingots [1]. d. Market Analysis - **Lead**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, processing fees are likely to rise, primary lead production is stable, and secondary lead production is limited by high costs. Demand is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season [1]. - **Zinc**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw materials, zinc concentrate supply has improved, and downstream demand is weak, mainly for just - in - time replenishment [1].

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore" [1] Investment Rating - The report does not mention an industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - Last week, the policy side continued to emphasize anti - involution, and the supply - side expectations boosted market sentiment. Considering the good profit per ton of steel, raw material prices fluctuated and rebounded. From the fundamental perspective, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment this period dropped to the lowest in two and a half months, mainly due to the end of the rush of mainstream mines, with declines in both Australia and Brazil; on the demand side, the pig iron output decreased slightly this period, slightly exceeding market expectations. It is necessary to continue to monitor the pig iron output, and there is a risk of decline in the north in August. It is expected to fluctuate between 85 - 95 US dollars in the near future, and cautious operation is recommended [10] Summary by Directory Part I: Fundamentals and Conclusions Price and Inventory - Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated and rebounded, with increases ranging from 7 - 18 yuan. As of July 4, the Platts 62% index closed at $95.7, up $1.3 week - on - week, equivalent to about 799 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.16. The optimal deliverable was NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 716 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 736 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract was at a discount to the spot. The 47 - port iron ore inventory in China increased week - on - week and was lower than the same period last year. The total inventory of 47 ports was 14,485.9 tons, up 6 tons week - on - week, down 1,125 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,108 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may increase slightly in the next period [7] Supply - Shipment: The total global iron ore shipment this period was 2,994.9 tons, a decrease of 362.7 tons week - on - week. The shipment of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2,417.8 tons, a decrease of 369.3 tons week - on - week. Australia's shipment was 1,764.0 tons, a decrease of 145.1 tons week - on - week, and the shipment to China was 1,415.1 tons, a decrease of 282.2 tons week - on - week. Brazil's shipment was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 224.3 tons week - on - week. - Arrival: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,535.5 tons, an increase of 122.0 tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,483.9 tons, an increase of 120.9 tons week - on - week; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,412.0 tons, an increase of 194.8 tons week - on - week [8] Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased this week, with an average daily output of 240.85 tons/day, a decrease of 1.44 tons/day from last week, an increase of 10.34 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.53 tons/day year - on - year. There were 3 new blast furnace restart and 7 blast furnace overhauls this period. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, the pig iron output may continue to decline in the next period. As of July 4, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 2,907 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 233 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 243 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China was about 3,293 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,162 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 223 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 92 yuan [9] Part II: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of July 4, the optimal deliverable was NM powder with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 736 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal deliverable was PB powder with a converted warehouse receipt of about 749 yuan/ton [15] Iron Ore Inter - period Spread - As of July 4, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 25.5 (- 1.5) [18] Premium Index - As of July 4, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.1635 (+ 0.0085); the premium index of 65% pellet was 13.15 (+ 0.15) [28] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory - As of July 4, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore of 64 sample steel mills was 1,230 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.02%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder ore was 8 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.41%; the inventory survey of imported ore was 19 days, unchanged from the previous week [33] 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption - As of July 4, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8,918.6 tons, an increase of 71.10 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.80%; the daily consumption of imported ore was 300.8 tons, a decrease of 0.44 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.15%; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of imported ore was 29.7 days, an increase of 0.28 days from the previous week, an increase of 0.95% [36] Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels - The data shows the historical trends of port total inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers at 45 ports, Australian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), Brazilian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), and trade ore inventory at ports (45 ports) [39] Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of July 4, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1,513 tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week, an increase of 0.65%; the inventory of imported port pellet ore was 487 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the inventory of imported port iron concentrate was 1,228 tons, an increase of 45 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.83%; the inventory of imported port coarse powder was 10,650 tons, a decrease of 107 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.00% [42] Shipment Volume - The data shows the historical shipment volume data from 2020 - 2025 [45] Iron Ore Seaborne Volume - The data shows the historical seaborne volume data of iron ore from 2022 - 2025, including the seaborne volume from Australia to China, Brazil to China, and non - mainstream countries to China [48] Iron Ore Import Volume - The data shows the historical import volume data of iron ore from 2020 - 2025, including the import volume from Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [53] Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment Volume - As of July 4, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto was 366 tons, a decrease of 191 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 34.34%; the shipment volume of BHP was 518 tons, a decrease of 37 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 6.67%; the shipment volume of Vale was 502 tons, a decrease of 144 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 22.26%; the shipment volume of FMG was 330 tons, an increase of 14 tons from the previous week, an increase of 4.39%; the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 1,716 tons, a decrease of 358 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 17.27% [71] Iron Ore Arrival Volume - As of July 4, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,484 tons, an increase of 121 tons from the previous week, an increase of 5.1%; the arrival volume at northern ports was 1,412 tons, an increase of 195 tons from the previous week, an increase of 16.0% [78] Domestic Ore Production - The data shows the historical production data of domestic ore from 2017 - 2025 [83] Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical daily average pig iron output data from 2016 - 2025, including the data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association. In 2025, compared with 2024, the daily average pig iron output increased by 1.71%, 1.71%, 3.62%, 1.32%, - 2.65% respectively [90] Global Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical pig iron output data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 - 2025 [93] Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Output - The data shows the historical pig iron output data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025 [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates, the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US, and the traditional consumption off - season are intertwined. However, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and inventory may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, are all in a reasonable range. Due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and social inventory, and the expected suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State's Manxiang mine resumed production in late April, but due to strict mining license approval, reduced approved capacity, and the change of export tax from cash to physical tax, the actual capacity ramp - up is slow (the initial increase is no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period is required). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo on April 9 (production in 2024 and 2025 is 17,300 and 20,000 tons respectively), and the power system repair takes more than 3 months. China's tin ore production and imports in July increased month - on - month [3][21]. - China's recycled tin production in July increased month - on - month [22][24]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared with last week, and China's refined tin production (inventory) in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][28]. - Malaysia's MSC smelting company suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. Indonesia's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. China's refined tin imports in July may increase month - on - month [30][32]. Demand - side - China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in July increased (increased) month - on - month, and the import (export) volume of solder strips in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][34][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][42][44]. - China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, it may affect tin demand [46][49]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both in a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are positive and in a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai - London tin prices is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10]. - The social inventory of refined tin in China increased compared with last week, and the inventories of SHFE, LME, and domestic tin ingots also increased [11][13]. - The domestic tin ore processing fee is in a downward trend, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [15][17].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, supported by raw materials and the reduced operation rate of secondary lead, the lead price fluctuates upward. However, as the downstream has not entered the peak season, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, which may limit the continuous upward space of the lead price [1]. - For zinc, due to the warm macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, the zinc price has rebounded. But after the rebound, it suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to inventory accumulation and limited rebound space. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% to 17,025 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract rose by 0.29% to 17,295 yuan/ton. The basis was - 270 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai lead was - 55 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Position - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 24,330 lots, down 29.37%; the open interest was 51,672 lots, down 2.28%; the trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.47, down 27.72% [1]. Inventory - LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, with no change; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 46,439 tons, with no change [1]. Industry Information - From June 28 to July 3, the weekly operation rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 68.46%, up 2.25 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 34.8%, up 0.2 percentage points; that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.83%, up 3.06 percentage points [1]. - A new 200,000 - ton/year production line of a primary lead smelter in Central China was ignited and put into operation, expected to produce lead ingots next week, with an initial expected daily output increase of 300 tons, and up to 600 tons if raw material supply is guaranteed [1]. Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.09% to 22,340 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the main futures contract rose by 0.38% to 22,410 yuan/ton. The basis was - 70 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai zinc was 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Position - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 153,571 lots, up 15.75%; the open interest was 128,000 lots, up 0.05%; the trading volume to open interest ratio was 1.20, up 15.69% [1]. Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, with no change; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 7,246 tons, up 9.80% [1]. Industry Information - From June 28 to July 3, the weekly operation rate of galvanizing enterprises was 56.48%, up 0.27 percentage points; that of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 49.14%, up 2.6 percentage points; that of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.14%, down 2.58 percentage points [1]. - As of July 3, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 6,000 tons, unchanged from last week [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's July rate cut expectation is almost impossible, and the characteristics of the traditional domestic consumption off - season are becoming more obvious [1]. - For alumina, the national policy guides the clearance of backward production capacity, but the falling price of Guinean bauxite weakens cost support, and the price may be adjusted. For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - bullish drive cools down, social inventory accumulates, and the price may face adjustment. For aluminum alloy, domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is in the red, inventory is increasing, and the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side situation**: The 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started production in June, and domestic and Australian (Guinean) bauxite prices were flat. New and expanded alumina production capacities in China and overseas are expected to increase production in July. The domestic operating capacity decreased, but inventory increased [2]. - **Cost situation**: The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with different costs in different regions [25]. - **Inventory situation**: The total inventory of SHFE alumina warehouses and plants decreased last week, while the inventory at Chinese ports increased [14]. - **Investment strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,100 - 3,300 [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side situation**: Domestic production capacity transfer and new projects are expected to increase production in July, and imports may also increase due to overseas production capacity changes [3][58][61]. - **Demand situation**: The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises decreased or remained flat, and traditional consumption off - season led to weakening demand [3]. - **Inventory situation**: Domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories increased last week, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased [34][42]. - **Investment strategy**: In the short - term, investors should consider price corrections. For SHFE aluminum contract 2508, focus on the support level around 19,000 - 20,000 and the resistance level around 20,800 - 21,000; for LME aluminum, focus on the support level around 2,450 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,600 - 2,650 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side situation**: The production and import of domestic scrap aluminum may increase in July. The production of primary aluminum alloy may increase, while that of recycled aluminum alloy may decrease [6][81]. - **Cost and profit situation**: The daily full production cost of primary aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton, and the daily full production cost of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,000 yuan/ton with negative profit [6]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy is increasing, and the import and export of non - wrought aluminum alloy may decrease [6]. - **Investment strategy**: Short - term investors are advised to lightly short the main contract on rallies, focusing on the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 19,900 - 20,000 [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Zinc) - High Zinc Prices Suppress Consumption, and the Expectation of Accumulating Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory is Slowly Materializing [1] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US has passed. The June small non - farm payroll data fell short of expectations, but the non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, shifting the interest rate cut expectation later. Additionally, the 90 - day tariff buffer period in the US is about to expire, increasing tariff uncertainty. - Raw Material: There is an expectation of looser supply. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. As of last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Some zinc ore quotes at ports recently rose above 4,000 yuan/ton, but refineries are optimistic about future import processing fees and have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. - Cost and Profit: TC and by - product revenues are good, and refinery profits have significantly improved. - Supply: On June 30, Nexa announced that after the successful end of negotiations with union employees on Friday evening, the operation of the Cajamarquilla smelter has fully resumed, with normal capacity utilization. The shutdown lasted for three days, and the 2025 sales guidance remains unchanged. - Demand: Affected by factors such as the rainy season and high temperatures, demand is weak. - Inventory: Due to rigid demand purchases, social inventory has increased. - Short - term Outlook: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply, the view of short - allocation remains unchanged. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.71% to 22,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract remained flat at 22,410 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc (electronic trading) decreased by 1.55% to 2,735.5 US dollars/ton [14]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate effects), as well as historical data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contracts [16][18]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Inventory: As of July 4, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, Jinzhou Port, Huangpu Port, Qinzhou Port, Nanjing Port, and Huludao Port, was 334,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [25]. - Profit: As of July 3, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,088 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [32]. - Processing Fee: The willingness of the mining end to hold prices has increased, and the growth rate of TC has slowed down. As of July 4, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and different regions had different processing fees [35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of July 3, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 228 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will remain at a high level [43]. - Import: The import profit window has closed. As of July 4, the import profit of refined zinc was - 896.89 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [46]. 3. Galvanized Industry - Operating Rate: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased by 0.27 percentage points to 56.48%. Although heavy rain affected the production of some enterprises in Tianjin, the overall operating rate of galvanized was boosted by the continuous strengthening of black metal prices after the Central Financial Work Conference [53]. - Inventory: Galvanized enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and weak purchasing sentiment. Their finished product inventory decreased as enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory due to concerns about product rusting in rainy weather [56]. 4. Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Industry - Price: The prices of zinc alloys fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.69% to 23,035 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.67% to 23,585 yuan/ton [64]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 2.60 percentage points to 49.14%. The resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises drove the overall increase in the operating rate. However, terminal orders in industries such as hardware and sanitary ware, luggage zippers, and jewelry hardware remained weak [67]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations, strong market bearish sentiment, and weak downstream demand. The finished product inventory also decreased slightly [70][71]. 5. Zinc Oxide Industry - Price: The price of zinc oxide weakened. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 21,400 yuan/ton [78]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 56.14%. Affected by weak demand, the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Terminal demand in the feed and rubber industries was weak [81]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm. The finished product inventory increased as the enterprise's delivery speed slowed down [84]. 6. Inventory Analysis - Social Inventory: As of July 3, the inventory of SMM zinc ingots in three regions was 75,900 tons, showing an increase. The inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 6,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [91]. - Exchange Inventory: As of July 4, the SHFE inventory was 45,400 tons, showing an increase. The LME inventory was 112,300 tons, showing a decrease [94]. - Overall Inventory: The overall inventory of the industry chain did not change significantly. The report also provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet, showing the supply - demand situation from January 2024 to May 2025 [98][100].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250707: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 7月4日 | 7月3日 | 变化值 (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1702.00 1810.00 | 1699.00 1800.00 | 3.00 10.00 | 0.18% 0.56% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1709.00 | 1713.00 | -4.00 | -0.23% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1735.00 | 1737.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1680.00 | 1660.00 | 20.00 | 1.20% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1800.00 | 10.00 | 0.56% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | (小顆粒) | ...